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IL-2 Primary Preview and Open Thread

by: shamlet

Tue Feb 26, 2013 at 16:00:00 PM EST


The special election in IL-2, to succeed disgraced former Rep. and Michael Jackson enthusiast Jesse Jackson Jr. is today. In the heavily Dem, majority-black district stretching from Chicago's South Shore to Kankakee, the race is all but certain to be decided in today's primary.

Democratic Primary

The Democratic Primary was supposed to be a wild, messy affair, with decades of pent-up ambition among South Suburban candidates waiting to be released. Instead, it's functioned a lot like Survivor, with a succession of candidates dropping out one by one as the establishment coalesces. First to drop out was Jonathan Jackson, Jesse Jr.'s brother, who decided to forgo a run after his brother's misdeeds started coming to light. Then the initial favorite, State Sen. Donne Trotter, dropped out after being arrested for bringing a gun into O'Hare airport. Next, State Sen. Napoleon Harris dropped out after finding little traction. Finally, State Sen. Toi Hutchinson dropped out after withering attacks from Michael Bloomberg over her moderately pro-gun positions.

This series of drop-outs has left a clear front-runner: Robin Kelly, a former State Rep. from Matteson who became chief of staff to Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias before losing the 2010 Treasurer election. Kelly is expected to prevail comfortably today against two also-rans, ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who was the front-runner until the field narrowed so precipitously, and Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale, who never really got traction due to ethics issues. An interesting sideshow has been ex-Rep. Mel Reynolds, JJJ's predecessor, who was forced out of office on sex charges. Reynolds is not expected to crack 5%.

While it's theoretically concievable that Halvorson could pull an upset if the 6" of snow expected for today lowers turnout enough, expect Kelly to prevail - maybe with an outright majority of the primary vote.

Despite all this CW, a recent poll for WCKG Radio showed Halvorson with a narrow lead. Salt that to taste.

Republican Primary

A host of some dudes are competing in the R primary for the right to lose to Kelly; political commentator Lenny McAllister has been the most notable, but some dudes Eric Wallace and Paul McKinley have also been running quasi-serious campaigns.

Honestly, there isn't enough suspense in this race to merit a liveblog, but feel free to discuss returns below...

shamlet :: IL-2 Primary Preview and Open Thread
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What percentage does Kelly need to hit, for this win to be impressive?
I think it has to be 50%, now that it is just her along with Halverson (is 25% her ceiling?) and Beale (15-25%?).

I think those that dropped out are still on the ballot, but how much can they garner, along with others still actively on the ballot, 10-15%?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Halvorson
I really have hard time to believe she could be somewhat competitive in this majority black district ( despite Kankakee county support )...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

Polls close
When?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

8pm eastern


Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Yep
And the race might as well be called at 8:00:01.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
2.4%
Out of 4,062 ballots counted in Chicago thus far, 96 are Republican.

Democrat, NC-11

I wonder how many of those 96
are Catholic and Orthodox priests.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I was too conservative
I only predicted Kelly by 20+ points.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

It's narrowing
Halvorson has cut Kelly's lead from 42% to 40%.

Only 11 votes separate the GOP frontrunners.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
it seems over to me
61% in

Kelly 56% 20, 946
Halvorson 20%   7,717


AP just called it for Kelly
guess win for Bloomy UGH

We can officially proclaim the NRA dead
Clearly Michael Bloomberg has proven that no congressman needs to vote with the NRA and should only vote with him//end snark

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Wail, wail
for the NRA.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Confirmation it's over for the NRA
a withering blow to the NRA and others who think we shouldn't do anything to prevent the gun violence that took the lives of 20 children in Connecticut in December and ravages the streets of cities like Chicago every single day.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Good for a LOL


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
More importantly
we can officially proclaim IL-2 as the district that will never elect a non-corrupt representative.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yeah
The two previous ones criminals and the one before that a raging anti-semite and racist. Not exactly a noble history.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
And I'd almost place a bet
of Kelly continuing in that distinguished tradition. There's of course nothing concrete, but there are some rumors of shady dealings while she worked for Alexi.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The only thing
I read was something about her taking pay for working one place while really working another, don't recall the details. But the story said she wasn't commenting except pooh-poohing the story. Should we start running a betting pool on how long before she's indicted, or would that contravene the US ban on internet gambling...?

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
I think...
... you're confusing her with Ald. Beale's wife.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Nope
here is the link: http://www.myfoxchicago.com/st...

Quote: "Since taking the lead, Kelly is faced tough questions. An inspector general's report concluded that, in 2010, while campaigning for Illinois treasurer, Kelly failed to properly account for time she spent away from her then-state job. Whether or not there were rule violations, she insisted she was not overpaid as a result."

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.


[ Parent ]
My mistake then
I do know Ald. Beale's wife got in trouble for timecards she filed which showed her as being in two places at once.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
AP
has called it... the GOP nomination, for what it's worth is still wide open though. Tiny, tiny numbers.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

GOP primary
McKinley 552
Wallace 527
Allister 454

67% counted. The excitement is unbearable.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.


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