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Italian Election 2013

by: Jon Henrik Gilhuus

Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 10:12:13 AM EST


This is a place to discuss the 2013 election for Parliament in Italy.

Sky's 3pm instant poll shows (House/Senate):

Bersani (left) 34.5% and 37%
Berlusconi (right) 29% and 31%
Grillo (populist) 19% and 16.5%
Monti (center) 9% and 9%
Seggi (green) 3.5% and 3%

SKY's 2nd forecast for Senate:
Berlusconi 31,7%; Bersani 29%; Grillo 25,1%; Monti 8,5%.

RAI's 2nd forecast for Senate:
Berlusconi 31,6%; Bersani 29,4%; Grillo 24,9%; Monti 9,2%

RAI's poll:
Bersani 35-37% and 36-38%
Berlusconi 29-31% and 30-32%
Grillo 19-21% and 17-19%
Monti 8-10% and 7-9%

Jon Henrik Gilhuus :: Italian Election 2013
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Ok still no precints out...


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

turnout is low...only 75% ( 81% in 2008 )


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

Grillo is not centre-left but populist ( both exteme left and extreme right )


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

OK
I'll adjust it.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
The press here in Norway
have described Grillos party almost exclusively as left-wing or left/center. Do they really have a significant portion of right wing voters/candidates as well?

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
not...Grillo is taking a lot of centre-right voters...but
their candidates are pretty lefty...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
They have no platform
They want to abolish parliament and move Italy towards direct democracy. They've ruled out cooperating with either the left or the right.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Another Switzerland?
That could get... interesting...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
We have some random precints but it's too soon to comment...


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

Repost from morning thread
Leaked exit polls - Sky TV (Chamber of Deputies):

Common Good of Italy (big tent center-left): 34.5%
Unnamed right-wing coalition (Berlusconi and friends): 29%
Five Star Movement (populist joke party): 19%
With Monti for Italy (europhile centrists): 9.5%
Civil Revolution (communists and greens): ?
The threshold for seats in the Chamber is 4%.

SKY TV (Senate):

Common Good of Italy: 37%
Unnamed right-wing coalition: 31%
Five Star Movement: 16.5%
With Monti for Italy: 9%
Civil Revolution: ?
The threshold to obtain Senate seats in a region is 8%.

Whichever party gets the most votes in the lower chamber (Chamber of Deputies) is guaranteed 55% of the seats, in the upper chamber (Senate) its region-by-region -- whoever gets the most votes in each individual region is guaranteed 55% of the seats from that region. IBC (center-left) was always going to control the Chamber, but its unlikely they'll have a majority in the Senate. This is why more people are voting pragmatically in the Senate.

Civil Revolution is likely to pass the 4% threshold for seats in the Chamber, but is unlikely to hold seats in the Senate.

RAI leaked exit poll:

Common Good of Italy: 35-37%
Unnamed right-wing coalition: 29-31%
Five Star Movement: 19-21%
With Monti for Italy: 8-10%
Civil Revolution: ?


(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


It's amusing
that they consider 75% a historical low in voting attendance, when you look at the numbers in the US...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

RAI projects M5S will be biggest single party
with 25.5%.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


From the Guardian:
Anna Masera of La Stampa reports that Rai's forecast for the Senate (as opposed to its exit poll) shows Grillo's Five Star Movement as the largest party, and the rightwing coalition in the lead in the upper house. If so, Italy's exit polls have been proved unreliable once again. More details soon ...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

I am trying to figure...but still not enough info...


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Grillo is gaing from the left and the right...


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

SKY's 3rd projection for the Senate:
Berlusconi 31,9%
Bersani 28,7%
Grillo 24,9%
Monti 8,4%

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

Italians
Fit in very well with the stereotypes.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
you are right :)


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
So if Grillo holds true to his word and doesn't align left or right
What is the process for a hung parliament? New elections for the senate and chamber?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
From the Guardian again
"Enrico Letta, the deputy leader of Bersani's Democratic party, said, after hearing the first projections:

If things are this way, the next parliament will be ungovernable. A new electoral law will be passed straight away and we'll go back to the polls."

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.


[ Parent ]
More from the Guardian
Projections from Rai, Sky, Mediaset and LA 7 are all now showing Berlusconi's centre-right coalition ahead in the Senate.

As Reuters writes, Italy's electoral laws guarantee a strong majority in the lower house to the party or coalition that wins the biggest share of the national vote, but the Senate, elected on a region-by-region basis, is more complicated and the result will turn on four key battleground regions. Projections from LA 7 show Berlusconi winning in three of them: Lombardy, Sicily and Campania.

Berlusconi has said says he would serve as finance minister, rather than prime minister, if his party ends up leading the government. Party secretary Angelino Alfano would be PM in such a scenario.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.


[ Parent ]
MediaSet TV Senate Projection
Bersani - 32%
Berlusconi - 29.7%
Rest - ?

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Any update on the lower house?


26, Male, R, NY-10

This just in
The first projections from the Chamber of Deputies are showing the centre-right in the lead.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Correction from The Guardian
"Apologies - I earlier wrote that the projections from the Chamber of Deputies were showing the centre-right in the lead there. But we don't have the projections yet; I misread what I was looking at."

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Abruzzo is a small region in central Italy
Usually is a bellweather...and it's head to head right now...really a weird election...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
So changed again?


26, Male, R, NY-10

Just in from La Stampa
RAI's 1ST PROJECTION FOR CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES:
Bersani 29,1%; Berlusconi 28,6%; Grillo 26,3%

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Bersani is going to win the house I think
In the senate Berlusconi could win...still too close to call both...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Nobody
gets a majority in that projection do they? Not even Bersani-Monti?  

Liberal Cosmopolitan, NH-2 (College), CA-15 (Hometown)

[ Parent ]
Winner is guaranteed a majority in the Chamber
The leading coalition is guaranteed 55% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies. In the upper chamber (Senate) its region-by-region -- whoever gets the most votes in each individual region is guaranteed 55% of the seats from that region.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Italy
Berlusconi would be where here in the US? Like Charlie Dent?  

And I assume Bersani would be like Bernie Sanders?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


That's not fair to Charlie Dent
More like Dan Crane or Eliot Spitzer

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
In Italy prostitution isnt illegal


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Berlusconi is more like Mitt Romney ( politically )
fiscal conservative social moderate but almost always he sides with conservatives on social issues...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
I'm very curious...
If you don't mind, what do you think of all the candidates and who did you vote for? I'm not sure I understand Italian politics as well as I should...

Liberal Cosmopolitan, NH-2 (College), CA-15 (Hometown)

[ Parent ]
I voted Berlusconi...he is the only fiscal conservative here in Italy
Bersani is a former communist...you know...Grillo is a populist...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Berlusconi
Berlusconi, like Putin, is the best choice among many terrible options.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Though I have a hard time
envisioning Romney throwing bunga-bunga parties... :P

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
of course Silvio character is more like Palladino :)


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Paladino
That's a pretty solid comparison.

[ Parent ]
And of course Paladino is Italian-american :)


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Bersani is going to win the house by less than 1 point...


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

Winning 31% over 30% gives you the majority of the seats.
It's Greece all over again...?

Well, at least it's not Japan (LOL).

Another election coming up soon?

That seemed tantalizingly close for Team Berlusconi but still much better for them than anyone was expecting....

Liberal Cosmopolitan, NH-2 (College), CA-15 (Hometown)


[ Parent ]
On the other hand
Just imagining trying to form a government with these results in a fully proportional system.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Still the centre-left hasnt the majority in the senate...
I hope we can vote again in 6-12 months...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
House final results ( winner takes 55% of seats )
Bersani    10.047.603 votes 29,54%

Berlusconi 9.923.109  votes 29,18%

Grillo     8.689.168  votes     25,55%

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative


So it was missing a hair
For Berlusconi to be fully back in power.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
No
He doesn't have a majority in the Senate, and if there's one thing Grillo, Bersani, and Monti have in common it's that they all hate Berlusconi. Things would be a great deal more unstable if Berlusconi had won in the Chamber.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Grillo hates both left and right...


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Incumbent house speaker not elected
Gianfranco Fini the speaker of the house from 2008 to 2013 after a stunning party switch takes only 0.45% of the national popular votes...Italians dont like party switchers...he was a strong Berlusconi ally and he left the party reversing all his old political views ( both on fiscal and social issues )...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

Write up a good diary
With a good summary, please.
Thanks

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I will try after the work...


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Sorry my small business needs a lot of extra time these days :(
I havent time to write a good diary...maybe in the next weeks

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
RAI projections for Lombard, Lazio, and Molise regional elections
Lombard:
Maroni (right): 42%
Ambrosoli (center-left): 37%

Lazio:
Zingaretti (center-left): 38%
Storace (right): 30%
Barillari (M5S): 21%

Molise:
Frattura (center-left): 41%
Iorio (right): 25%
Federico (M5S): 19%

Lazio and Molise were previously held by the right.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Bersani needs to deal with Grillo
In order to get a majority in the Senate to pass legislation Bersani's only option is to cut a deal with Grillo.  Monti's party does not have enough seats to create a majority with Bersani's in the Senate, and I can't see Bersani and Berlusconi teaming up. So a Bersani-Grillo coalition seems to be the only possible majority in the Senate.  The question is do Bersani and Grillo see more benefits for their respective parties from a coalition or from continued political instability and new elections. True Berlusconi could try to cut a deal with Grillo to get a Senate majority, but since Grillo is basically a left leaning populist, I doubt that would occur.  Even if it did, the two parties do not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies.

Why doesn't Italy have first-past-the post?
It always seemed to me that is what creates a two-party system the most. Isn't that what they need, and through election reform, been trying to accomplish?

Baker '14
R, MA-3


In the house we have first gets majority
but in the senate we havent because our costitution prescribes to assign the seats on regional basis. So you can win national popular vote but still lose the senate if you dont win in the right places...

you have to understand the left is very strong in the central Italy ( Bologna, Firenze, Perugia ) and in some other small places in northern and southern Italy...but the right is strong in the industrial north ( Milano, Venezia...not the cities but in the suburbs and rural areas of course...for example Venice is very lefty but the region overall is a conservative stronghold ) and in the rural south ( Napoli, Bari, Palermo )...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative


[ Parent ]
The New American on Italian Politics
Here is an interesting article at http://www.thenewamerican.com/...  

That might explain why many anti-leftist voters picked Grillos movement, even if Grillo's candidates tend to be left-of-center.  I hope Italians have better options in future elections.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX


Uh
There's so much obviously wrong with this article I don't know where to start, and I can only assume it was written by someone whose only knowledge of Italian politics comes from several minutes on google, or it was written with a total disregard for factual accuracy from the start. I also like how they continually meta-reference themselves as their own source.

The Communist Party of Italy took a revisionist line since the early 60s and cut ties with the Soviet Union later that decade; the party was not "communist" in any recognizable sense. Former "communist" officials were social democrats from the start. Bersani is close with Merkel (just not as close as Monti) and the Democrats passively supported Monti's austerity policies and market and labor reforms.

Italian politics are not complex, and have little to do with unfounded KGB tin foil hat conspiracy theories.

Right-wing Grillo support came primarily from federalists and decentralization activists (mostly from the north), who typically congregate in Lega Nord, which was polling as high as 10-12% early in 2012, but crashed after it was revealed their charismatic leader and his inner-circle had embezzled a great deal of the party's money.

Lega Nord (along with the origin parties of Berlusconi's PdL) was one of the anti-corruption right-wing parties that arose after the fall of the first republic. During the first republic (1946-1994) Italy was an advanced parliamentary system that lacked charismatic leaders, and seats were much more evenly distributed between a much wider spectrum of sometimes ideologically confused parties, where governments were formed by broad alliances of parties, with parties of the left often participating in governments of the rights and vice versa (similar to modern Brazil in some respects.)

During the 1990s Italy suffered through a tremendous corruption scandal called Mani Pulite (Clean Hands), which brought down the first and third largest parties in Italy (the center-right Christian Democracy, and the center-left Socialist Party) which generally participated in government together. Mani Pulite exposed the closeness of many political leaders to prominent businessmen and the mafia, and huge bribes which had been accepted by most of the governing parties (and some of the opposition.) The problem of endemic corruption (not individual corruption, but endemic, systemic, organized corruption where parties would accept bribes and distribute them democratically among their members) resulted in a terrible retardation of Italian politics, where things became very personalized and leader-centric in the search for honest politicians.

The social-democraitc ex-"communists" were one of the only parties to survive that era (all that turned up were a few ancient instances of being funded by the USSR, but it didn't hurt them as everyone already knew they used to be funded by the Soviets before Berlunguer broke with them, and the public was more concerned with politicians living it up on the public dime in any case.) However, they also didn't benefit from the fall of that era, as they're a poor fit for these new politics. They've needed a new leader perpetually since the fall of the first republic, as they never had the impetus to adapt. They're an ideologically confused, consensus seeking party that is ran by elderly and uncharismatic politicians like Bersani.

This isn't even the first time they've bungled a 10+ point lead (they had one in '01, only to go on to lose by 2 points to Berlusconi.) Instead the field went to Berlusconi and Lega Nord (ironically.) Berlusconi spent his fortune on television advertisements about himself, and this was a success with the electorate which was attempting to evaluate their politicians on an individual basis. Lega Nord (Northern League) sprung up as a coalition of regionalist parties in northern Italy that made flashy demands for the corrupt central government to give them more control over their regions, and stop giving their tax dollars to the south (the wealthy, developed, and conservative North tends to believe the "backward" more left-wing South is living on their welfare and resent them.)

So Italian politics are not complex. It's all very facile and leader centered.

Berlusconi has been thoroughly discredited as corrupt and he has often failed to deliver on his promises of market liberalization. But he's also charismatic and a master of television, which lets him spring back.

Monti is not corrupt, he certainly is no friend of communists or the left, but he's not charismatic, and the only people his policies appeal to are Angela Merkel, the Fortune 500, and the editorial board of The Economist. While he's successfully liberalized markets and delivered on reforms to make it easier for bosses to fire workers, he's raised taxes, including reintroduced a famous and unpopular property tax which had been abolished. The only thing he had going for him was that as interm-PM he was "above" the other parties, needing a broad consensus to govern, but, by campaigning, he made himself "dirty" and a politician (previously he was an unelected "Senator for Life.")

Bersani and the PD suffer from a lack of ideology and direction following their break with orthodox communism, and are a relic of the bygone first republic. They supported Monti's reforms ambivalently (his government was brought down by Berlusconi in objections to tax raises.)

Beppe Grillo is very charismatic, he's a former television persona, and his appeal to right-wing and left-wing voters alike makes sense in this personalist context. He advocates decentralizing power, and direct democracy. In Italy's personalist politics where people are very suspicious of politicians, Grillo has a simple appeal.

Italian politics have retrogressed to a childish, and non-ideological, state, so there's no need to overcomplicate things.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Italian Politics
Thank you for your perspective.  I was once very skeptical of TNA's conspiracy theories.  I have since been convinced most of them are accurate.  Yes, they do reference themselves, but both that article and the referenced articles link to other sources as well.  I do not know enough about Italian politics to comment much more specifically.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

[ Parent ]
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