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Political Roundup for February 26, 2013

by: BostonPatriot

Tue Feb 26, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Happy Election Day! Tonight's special primary in IL-02 is the first federal contest since December (excluding the MO-08 conventions).

Senate

GA-Sen: Rep. Tom Price may have made too many enemies to run successfully for Senate: he double-crossed Nathan Deal in 2010, and upset Saxby Chambliss by threatening to primary him before his retirement. It's increasingly looking like a Broun/Kingston/Gingrey field, with Karen Handel as a wild card.

KY-Sen: Rep. John Yarmuth thinks Ashley Judd will run, and it sounds like she may announce on May 6--Derby Day! No word from Alison Lundergan Grimes on whether Alison Lundergan Grimes will run.

MA-Sen: In a bit of surprising news, Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch have agreed to 6 debates in advance of their April primary. Markey may need a GPS to find Springfield, Worcester, Lowell, and Fall River, which are among the host cities.

MI-Sen: St. Sen. Roger Kahn (R) of the Tri-Cities area is considering a run for Senate. Kahn is fairly moderate on economic and labor issues, but did vote for right-to-work. He'd be a decent get if Carl Levin retires (and a respectable sacrificial lamb if he doesn't).

NJ-Sen-B: Sen. Bob Menendez sort of compared himself to Martin Luther King Jr. as he once again denied allegations of corruption and dalliances with underage hookers.

WV-Sen: Rep. David McKinley confirmed that he won't run for Senate and seemed to endorse Shelley Moore Capito.

Governor

CA-Gov: The LA Times looks at the scant field of Republicans who could run for governor: St. Asbm. Tim Donnelly (who is a single-issue, anti-immigration guy and has been described as "worse than no candidate"), banker Neel Kashkari, ex-LG Abel Maldonado, ex-San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders, San Bernardino DA Michael Ramos (more likely to run for AG), Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearingen, and OC Supervisor John Moorlach.

CT-Gov: Michael Fedele, Jodi Rell's LG who lost the GOP primary for this office in 2010, won't run again: he's instead gunning to be Mayor of Stamford, the old job of current Gov. Dan Malloy.

PA-Gov: Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) said it is her "intention" to run for governor. She has no timeline for a formal announcement.

More PA-Gov: Schwartz, of course, will get a primary, and one of her foes may be Philly businessman Tom Knox. He could cause problems for Schwartz by splitting the SEPA vote, especially since she doesn't have the Philly machine locked down by any stretch.

TX-Gov: Kinky Friedman is thinking of running again, and claims his campaign will be "serious" this time.

VA-Gov: Bill Bolling is finding some support for his likely independent bid, as many in-state elites seem turned off by both Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe. Oddly, the article mentions ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R) of NoVA as another potential Indy, which is unlikely since his wife is running for LG as a Republican.

WI-Gov: Scott Walker sounds optimistic about his 2014 re-election bid and predicts it will be less intense than the 2012 recall. That sounds like a pretty fair prediction.

House

FL-26: Most of the early action in Florida has been here, where a long line of Republicans are interested in facing new Rep. Joe Garcia. Former M-D Commission Chair Joe Martinez, Cutler Bay Mayor Ed MacDougall, and St. Rep. Jose Felix Diaz are all running. A few other local Miami Republicans are also interested. This has normally been a GOP seat, but swung heavily to Obama last year.

IL-02: Buckle up: just when all signs were pointing to an easy Robin Kelly win, a last-minute poll shows Debbie Halvorson up 21-17 in what remains a fairly crowded Democratic field. This logic-defying poll could be wrong (low-turnout specials are notoriously hard to predict), but it will be a long night for the gun control lobby if Halvorson pulls it off. Also: snow is predicted for Chicago today, and that's more likely to hurt Kelly, since her urban voters are harder to turn out than Halvorson's suburbanites.

NRCC: They have a new web ad attacking Max Baucus, John Barrow, and Nick Rahall over the sequester. It's anyone's guess as to what the NRCC has against Baucus, who I am pretty sure will not be running for MT-AL.

Miscellaneous

AZ-AG: Felicia Rotellini (D), who gave Tom Horne a close race in what was otherwise a GOP landslide in Arizona in 2010, will seek a rematch.

Italy: In a surprise result, Italy is heading for a split government with a left-wing coalition in its lower house and a right-wing coalition in its upper house. Polls had shown the left comfortably ahead. The results ensure that we haven't seen the last of the one and only Silvio Berlusconi.
BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for February 26, 2013
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Political Roundup for February 26, 2013 | 152 comments
NC-3
Walter, Code Pink called, they want their rhetoric back. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
We need to make it our first priority to primary him
Should be an early RRH project.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
IL-2 Turnout
I would think Kelly's voters would be more likely to turn out since she has the Chicago political machine backing here. Davis, Rush, Preckwinkle, Emanuel, and a few of Kelly's former opponents for the seat have all backed her. Additionally, many of the polling places in the city are within walking distance. I would have to imagine most of the suburban polling places require a drive to them since the city is much more dense than the suburbs and rural areas of the southern portion of IL-2 where Halvorson is going to need a huge turnout to win. Pro 2nd amendment supporters need to hope for a large portion of the normal Republican base to instead vote for Halvorson in the Democratic primary.  

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative
I don't see a scenario where Kelly doesn't win


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
The last I heard
The snow was going to get lighter the further south you go though - Kankakee is only going to get ~2" while Chicago is going to get ~5".

It's maybe a 5% chance for Halvorson. But that's better than it looked like last week.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Turnout
In Illinois, black voters always turn out at a higher rate than white voters which is likely to help Kelly and not Halvorson if there is lower turnout due to weather conditions.
[ Parent ]
WATN: Dahlkemper to run for Erie County Executive or Governor
http://yourerie.com/fulltext?n...

27, Republican, PA-6
West Texas
Hope everyone that reads this blog in West Texas is alright. 19 inches of snow is a lot for places that are used to snow. It must be absolutely crippling in western Texas.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
Panhandle
The Texas Panhandle is used to some snow, but 18 inches is a lot for them.  The biggest concern I suspect is not the amount of snow, but the extreme drifting they are seeing.  4' to 6' drifts are no laughing matter.  Luckily when we get big storms in Pennsylvania we typically don't see the drifting as the state is largely hilly and wooded.  The snow just blows across the prairie in the Texas Panhandle.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
They might need the snow...
I remember reading last year, on RRH, that Texas would suffer a drought for decades.
[ Parent ]
They needed the moisture
But the immediate effects of that much snow can be devastating. As Ryan said, this is doubly true if topography-less places like NW Texas.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
This Bloomberg article
Sums up Chicago politics so well.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Interesting how many Alderman get appointed
to their seat by the Mayor. Which brings up an interesting scenario. If Chicago could ever do what NY does and elect a non Democrat Bloomberg or Rudy type Mayor that Mayor might get the chance to appoint a lot of non Democrats to the City Council!
[ Parent ]
Chicago is even tougher than New York
A larger black population and not as many white middle-class ethnics. In NYC, you have an entire congressional district as a base (NY-11), and also had the old 9th and the UES district. There's no great natural base in Chicago outside a few pockets in the far northwest and southwest.
[ Parent ]
plus
the Northwestern corner of Cook county is outside of Chicago city limits.

Chicago's city limits pretty much froze around 1910 or so.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Christie not invited to CPAC
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

27, Republican, PA-6
Christie
It's amazing how a few months can change things.  6 Months ago I was arguing with Conservative friends in real life about Christie, they loved him, I did not care for him.

Now we talk about how if I lived in NJ I would consider voting for him and they talk about how much they despise him.

I guess this is something that is not constricted to my group of Conservative friends.  Big mistake IMO.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
and the bizarre thing is that nothing has changed.
Except a bit of talk here and there.

I don't pay it much attention; there is a certain degree of teenage girl fickleness about the electorate.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Christie Just McCain
the Media Loves just wait till he runs for President and watch how they McCain him too
[ Parent ]
Christie needs to win in NJ 1st
so he needs Dems & Indys to like him. After he gets re-elected he can worry about getting Conservatives to love him again.
[ Parent ]
Gallup Party ID by age and race
http://sas-origin.onstreammedi...

Incidentally, younger minorities are slightly more Republican and slightly less Democrat than older minorities.

26, R, PA-01.



Those numbers
I don't find the Hispanic numbers all that interesting as it is very close. But the black numbers are quite intriguing. 84 D vs 75D is a big difference. Was there a difference in how the black vote broke down by age? I can't believe that Obama did significantly worse among 18-35 year old blacks than he did with older blacks

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Young black men
According to Pew, Romney got 19% of 18-29 black males.

http://www.people-press.org/20...

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!

[ Parent ]
Young Black Men
It's possible that after spending the entire Obama Presidency unemployed some young Black men might've decided to try the other guy. That disparity between young Black men and young Black women is huge.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
i wish you were right but
no African American politicians ever speak to route cause of their community problems- a lot of it self affliction. No one speaks to how over 70% African American babies born are to single females. High crime. High drug use. High drop out rates in schools.  They still like to blame everyone but themselves
[ Parent ]
Poll
That poll paints a very bleak picture for cultural conservatives.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Sort of
That brings up the old question though. Are people going to keep their same views as they grow older, and the views of the old will disappear? Or will the views of the young change to be more like the views of the old as they age? I think the answer is a little of A and a little of B. But we won't know until the future.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Cultural conservatives
hope is to convince socially conservative blacks and Latinos to switch en masse to the GOP.  
Otherwise they are in big trouble (because the more the GOP needs white votes, the more they will have to move to the center on social issues to get enough of them)

Christie 2016  
[ Parent ]
lol

[ Parent ]
+1
That was my reaction, too.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
NOM shoots shot across MN-GOP bow
http://m.kstp.com/article.html...

This won't be as big of a deal in the senate, as senators are not up for reelection until 2016. The House on the other hand, this could become an issue depending on how things go over the next few months.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

NY-SD-36
State Sen. Ruth Hassell Thompson running for mayor of Mt. Vernon. http://www.elections.ny.gov:80...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Can she hold both offices at once?
In some States that practice is allowed, as both jobs are considered part time.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Don't think so
nt

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Not in NY
You can hold another job (like one at the law firm of Weitz & Luxenberg) but cant hold 2 elected offices. This aint Jersey!
[ Parent ]
can't do it in NJ anymore either*
*Unless you already were when the double-dipping law was passed, then you are grandfathered.  There are only a handful left, though.
[ Parent ]
Just four
State Sens. Sacco (N. Bergen Mayor), Stack (Union City Mayor), Sarlo (Woodridge Mayor), and State Rep. Gary Schaer (Passaic Council).

(And in case you were wondering, Schaer is the only one I had to look up.)

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Dov Hikind... in blackface?
"Wearing blackface for Purim as an elected official is a great idea!"-no one ever.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

I am unfamiliar with Purim
What sort of holiday is it?

Because in some cultures, like the Dutch "Zwarte Piet" character is an integral part of their Christmas celebrations. Is that the case with the Jewish holiday Purim?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
It's a very festive holiday
All kids and many adults disguise.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Chill
People dress up in Purim like everything and anything.
I personally find it very amusing seeing people dress up like Hasids on Halloween.

People pretend to be outraged too often.
My kids should apologize to Mickey Mouse.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I'm plenty chill.
I said that because he had to know that if someone from the black political establishment in Brooklyn found out, they'd freak out and throw a tizzy fit.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
I mean, apparently Dov Hiking likes being outraged when
other people dress up as Hasids, so he can hardly complain about this.
[ Parent ]
He doesn't get outraged
He condemned a guy that is a famous anti-semite. Wrongly IMO in that case.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I was a Hasid for Halloween this year
I find Hikind's hypocrisy the offensive part rather than the blackface itself.  He didn't do anything like enlarged lips or other Black stereotypes, he only made his face black.  But he criticized Galliano (who is definitely an anti-Semite) for doing it, so he has no right to then do it and be a hypocrite.

To answer OGGoldy's question, I'm sure you can read about Purim on Wikipedia.  But to summarize, it's one of the second tier Jewish holidays (like Shavuot or Hanukkah; I think Sukkot would be considered second tier two but I could be wrong about that).  Jews dress up in costume, but blackface has never been a part of the historical tradition.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
PA-11; DCCC recruiting Chris Carney?
@PoliticsPA: Former Rep. Chris Carney vs. Rep. Lou Barletta? The DCCC is recruiting him, & he's looking at it. http://t.co/GJuSg80mz8 #PA11

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Yeah, good luck with that.
That's a majorly uphill race for any Democrat.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
Please
The Democrats aren't winning this seat with anyone but Holden barring a scandal.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Holden is the only person I know who would make this race competitive. Carney is a nice guy, but won't beat Barletta, especially in 2014.

The Dauphin County Dems (and Cumberland too) have no bench to run anyone.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

[ Parent ]
Dauphin
The Democratic bench seat simply does not exist outside of Luzerne County.  Pretty much any seat with a Republican registration advantage in Pennsylvania is out of play barring a scandal.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
PA-GOV: Dahlkemper out for governor
More realistic
She is probably the better candidate in the County Executive race.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Is that currently Republican or Democratic held?

[ Parent ]
Democrat
The current county executive ousted an incumbent in the 2010 Democratic primary. Lets just say things are quite restless in Erie County Democratic politics.  Dahlkemper would be a good compromise candidate for them that would settle things down.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
2009 primary I mean


27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Gallup report: GOP unlikely to gain much traction with Latinos
As Jesse Kelly humorously put it on his Facebook page, "No way! Even though Rubio speaks spanish?"

http://dailycaller.com/2013/02...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

If you want to be the next Detroit, vote dem
That may sound a bit snarky, but there's a reason why Wayne County is what it is compared to Livingston County.

Detroit didn't go downhill until the progressives took over in 1963. Notice I said progressives, not blacks. The riots happened under the watch of white progressive leadership.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
There isn't a quick fix for the party
But, over the long term it is necessary if we want to be a majority party. But, the right candidate (i.e. Rubio) could get better results than a generic Republican in any given election.

For decades, the GOP has lost the trust of minorities and the recent rhetoric has compounded the problem. It is going to take time to regain some of that trust back.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Of course...
I just think that Asians, including Indians, Persians, and Arabs, are a far better target.

We have to stop being the "Christian First" party. Just referencing "Judeo-Christian" values ignores a whole new business class in America that will only grow in population, wealth, and political power.

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
We need to stop being the "white Christian" party
 There are enough non-whites who are conservative on most issues (other than immigration and civil rights) who do not consider the GOP even an option because of the tone that we project.  
Unless we change that soon, with both tone and policy (immigration reform), the GOP will be doing a DLC-like move to the center to stay relevant.

Hopefully conservatives realize that caving on immigration reform is better than continuing to lose elections and eventually caving big time on a whole host of issues.  Passing immigration will probably reduce base turnout in 2014, but its better to take the hit for a single midterm than for many years in the future.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
^^^^^^^^
Bingo.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Immigration
Depends on the reform.  If you create a lot of new poor Hispanic citizens, you end up with an electoral hit for quite some time just from their votes.

Make legal immigration easier for high skilled workers and iron out the inefficiencies in the system, sure.  That will help some.  But I fail to see how doing anything new re: illegal immigrants will change anything.  

[ Parent ]
It's all about the tone
and making Hispanics, Asians, and others feel welcome in the GOP.  For many Hispanics who are citizens, comprehensive immigration reform (including some form of a path to citizenship) has become a values issue.  That is, opposing it is simply a non-starter if you want their vote. If you get past that threshold, then they will listen to you.  Which is why Bush won many more Hispanics than did McCain or Romney.

The "hit" you'll take from illegal immigrants becoming citizens won't start until 2025 at the earliest, and probably even later than that.  It won't be until near the end of the decade before these guys become eligible to go to the back of the line and begin applying for a green card.  We have no idea how the politics will be at point.  

The much bigger hit that you'll take is among the Hispanics who turn 18 every day.  That alone is enough to swamp us if we keep losing them by 70-30.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Why not?
Wy not target 70% white vote?  The 60% national Romney white vote is very misleading, outside south Romney may have done worst than GHWB in 1988 who if I remember won pretty close to the same % of white voters as Romney, remember also he lost West Virginia with that.

The path to 70% is pretty straight forward, loosen up a little on abortion a little bit by not having medieval position on rape question, completely give up the gay marriage issue or the Supremes will take it away anyway, oppose the cheep labor lobby within GOP, and seek agressive financial incentives within tax code to keep people married with kids, have single people subsidize married people.  With this a big chunk of young, single women, and professional people may be attracted.  

Did I say it was straight forward......never mind.

41, R, CA-10

[ Parent ]
Hmm
I tend tot hink there are more secular, white progressives today than there were back then who have been scared away from considering voting Republican, even if they're not fiscally liberal, by the vocal religious right.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
We need to be the competent party
We need to be the competent party. The dems are the Detroit party.

That's what we need to emphasis over and over. If you want things done right, go to us. If you want things done wrong, go to them.

The GOP runs Livingston County. The dems run Wayne County.
The GOP runs Lancaster County. The dems run Philly.
The GOP runs Texas. The dems run bankrupt California.
The GOP runs the Dakotas with the energy boom. The dems run Illinois.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
The problem is
that unfortunately many Americans don't see the GOP as the competent party.  They still see us as the party of GWB and Cheney, whom they don't see as competent in any real sense.
If Obama's second term is a clear disaster, that view will automatically change.  But more likely it will be a middling performance like his first term, and without any clear verdict.

Romney in many ways made this argument, but it works well with base voters and those who are already center-right.  It doesn't particularly work well with voters whom we need to pick up.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Run a Governor in 2016
Think locally.

Detroit, Philly, Chicago, Flint, Gary, California State Government, St Louis, Cleveland, Youngstown, Baltimore.

Mike Duggan, Kwame Kilpatrick, Kucinich, Bob Ficano, Ed McNamara, Blagojevich, Jesse Jackson, Granholm, Pat Marcy, John Street, etc.

That needs to be thrown out there NATIONALLY every time the dems push their policies. I'm starting to see it with guns, but only that issue.

Detroit has 50 years of progressive rule. It needs to be hung like an albatross over the neck of the democrats, including white democrats. The only difference between Bob Ficano (Wayne County exec) and Kwame Kilpatrick is the color.

My county has been Republican for over 50 years. People are still moving here unlike most of the state. There's a reason it's a good place to live. Things are run properly here.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Read my sig
I'm certainly advocating for it :)

Christie 2016  
[ Parent ]
I agree
The thing is, however, that we've been bringing this up for at least 20 years, and it's mostly fallen on deaf ears. As they say, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result. We need to simply make small policy adjustments now, in order to avoid making drastic policy adjustments in the future, because that's the only way we can allow the core principles of the party to remain relevant enough to win majorities in elections.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
asian americans by religion
http://blogs.discovermagazine....

All Americans Lean Rep/Rep Lean Dem/Dem No Lean
Evangelical Churches 50% 34% 16%
Mainline Churches 41% 43% 16%
Catholics 33% 48% 19%
Buddhists 18% 67% 15%
Hindus 13% 63% 24%
Unaffiliated 23% 55% 23%

Asian Americans
Evangelical Churches 56% 28% 16%
Mainline Churches 37% 44% 18%
Catholics 42% 41% 17%
Buddhists 27% 56% 17%
Hindus 9% 72% 19%
Unaffiliated 21% 63% 16%

They basically vote like whites.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
you mean non-Asians
I think Catholics split 33R-48D-19I because most Hispanics are Catholic. If they polled only non-Hispanic white Catholics the split would probably look more like the split they show for mainline churches.

43, Dem-leaning Ind, CA-6 (old CA-5)
[ Parent ]
the piece addresses that
Asian American Catholics are somewhat more Democrat than white non-Hispanic Catholics, but far less than Hispanic Catholics. But the issue is that Christians, aggregating the Evangelical, Mainline, and Catholic categories together, only make up ~40 percent of the Asian American population.

They didn't  post the exact figures, but I infer that Asians are closer to whites than they are to hispanics. Hispanics of course have lower incomes and lower marriage rates, both of which slightly at least correlate to GOP voting.

I suspect the racial net effect is maybe a few points, and is probably small compared to the religious net effect. I know Nate Silver did a great piece on this but I can't find it anymore.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Part of the problem is the local nature of politics
If American politics was either solely national, or predominately national such that the national issues dominated locally it would be far easier for the GOP to engage in minority outreach. Asians would vote on their economic issues nationally, and Hispanics could be won over by concessions on immigration or issue based appeals.

A big problem however is that at the local level the GOP is in far better shape than it is in Presidential races, especially where minorities tend to be concentrated, and Republicans tend to see little reason to make overtures on behalf of Republican candidates in other states when none are necessary at home.

As a consequence its easy to say all that is neccisary for Hispanic outreach is for a bill to pass congress, but the real complaints many Hispanic voters tend to have with the Republican party are with their local parties, and at the end of the days these come down to fights over the distribution of resources which are in the end at least partially zero-sum.

This is almost entirely the problem for African Americans, who see little reason to support Republicans in the South, and where Republicans, with a few notable exceptions, have little incentive for outreach, since they control everything already. For instance, Fiscal conservatism seems like buzzword for starving overwhelmingly African American public schools in favor of giving white parents vouchers for the private academies they already send their kids to.

While Romney did a mediocre job on Hispanic outreach, most of his minority related problems had little to do with him, and a lot to do with what legislators and governors did over the previous few years. There was very little he could have done to fix that by the time he had the nomination. Spending time in Florida the weekend before the election, a lot of the Hispanic and Black mobilization was an organic response to a tendency to blame all voting related problems on Republican "Dirty Tricks" that had little or nothing to do with Romney's very nearly invisible presence in Miami-Dade.



25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Black public schools are collapsing on their own
That really has nothing to do with the GOP. Black neighborhoods in cities have been collapsing for decades, and liberal partisans have effectively embraced charters. Heck, many Philadelphia schools in the hood operate at tiny fractions of their original capacity.

If that's what fiscal conservatism is, people are really missing the facts.

Blacks in the South are a moot issue. Blacks in the Midwest aren't.

There might be a valid point that the South and midwest are less generous with welfare and transfer payments, but it has little to do with education directly.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Exactly
While Gladstone is right about local politics hurting the Republicans nationally, he is dead wrong on the education aspect of it.

The strongest proponents of private school vouchers in states like Pennsylvania aren't Republicans, but urban Democrats.  Minorities are more likely to send their kids to private schools or charter schools than whites.  

Urban schools aren't collapsing because of funding issues.  They have already collapsed and a decade of increased funding has not stopped the collapse.  Fundamentally, these areas are collapsing because of bad lifestyle choices made by the populace and embraced by the Democrats.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Surrendering over Immigration
Isn't going to win us anybody. If you are a person that is convinced the GOP has lots of people that want to hold up Immigration Reform, now seeing the bill get passed isn't going to make them re-think what they have come to believe about the GOP. After all, even if the GOP is complicit with Obama on passing a bill, he's going to take all the credit for it. Many will probably just assume the GOP went along with it because they had no other option.

That being said, being whole-heatedly against fixing our Immigration problem with some sort of legislation based on compromise, would continue to burn us. Ultimately, I think the GOP needs to make sure this issue gets moved on, and so we can talk about other issues, like the economy, which I think we can reach out to minority voters on. So, we are going to have to give up amnesty to the Democrats, we just need to make sure we get a system in place so that this doesn't happen again, and that we have assess to the best and brightest from around the world for our work-force, something not encouraged by the system currently. If we don't get what we need from the bill in the long-run, there is no up-side to compromising on Immigration, other than to get rid of the issue for the time being. I am afraid that Rubio and others havn't push hard enough for structural reforms to the Immigration system (and to ensure that we don't get fleeced again like Reagan did in the long-run).  

R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
I don't agree
Immigration reform has become a "values" issue for many Hispanics and even Asians, including many who could vote GOP if/when this is finished.  A whole lot of Hispanics are going to be "off-limits" to us until this is done.  We won't suddenly get these voters, but we will be able to seriously pitch our argument to them, which means we'll make some inroads.

We could see a backlash from the GOP base in terms of turnout to an immigration bill in 2014.  But as I wrote above, I'd rather take the hit for one midterm rather than deal with our continuing demographic problem for years to come.    

Obama taking all the credit for it would be more of an issue if he ran again.  Well thankfully he can't.  I'm not particularly concerned about his magical powers to deny the GOP their fair share of credit for this legislation in 2016.  

Unless you think that losing Hispanics and Asians by a 70-30 margin from here on out, keep losing Presidential elections, eventually have to move the GOP to the center like the DLC did for the Dems, etc is a good thing, it needs to get done this year.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
SI-GOP
http://www.silive.com/news/ind...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

CA-Gov
Absolutely no to Tim Donnelly.  I could care less whom we run (because we aren't likely to win) provided it isn't him or anyone of his ilk.  If Tim Donnelly is the nominee, it will be another Dem wave election in California.

In reality, the GOP will need a decent establishment candidate to prevent Donnelly from advancing to the general, as Dem mischief is a certain possibility here.

Christie 2016  

Top 2
presents an interesting possibility - it might make some sense for us to try and get behind an Indie here rather than run a Republican who's guaranteed to lose. I'm thinking someone along the lines of Zuckerberg. A deep-pocketed I would have a lot better chance than a Republican of actually winning.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
It won't happen, but
I think my idea is the smartest.  Get a business Dem, preferably a Hispanic one, to run against Brown.  That's the only way to beat him; I think he'd even beat an Indy.  Get a third of the Democrats and most of the Independents and even if a couple decent (Co. Supervisor level) Republicans run, you've got a shot.  Dennis Cardoza would have been perfect.  He may not have a great base (Central Valley), but he can get the business community to support him, and he can get some Hispanics to support him.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Brown would thrash Cardoza
Brown would probably get most of the Dem-leaning indies, who would see him as an incumbent who seems to be doing a good job. He'd probably also get a lot of Republicans who see them both as way too liberal and would go with the devil they know over the devil they don't.

For future open races, I could see doing something like that.

43, Dem-leaning Ind, CA-6 (old CA-5)

[ Parent ]
Its probably the best bet
Mostly because Hispanics are very under-represented in State-wide offices, despite being close the the plurality demographic and the main reason the State is Safe D.

Although I honestly think the Central Valley is the place for such a candidate to be from, because its got the best message.  The region has some of the highest unemployment rates in the country, and the unemployed there are heavily Hispanic, which can let said candidate start with a "we need new solutions to our economic problems" that could actually win over enough poor Hispanics to win.

Although the risk there is that the CAGOP primary voters might not play along, and let someone really bad snatch 2nd place as the only Republican running.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
that makes more sense for 2018 and beyond
Brown isn't going to lose barring an unlikely implosion. Has an incumbent with positive net approvals in a state dominated by his party ever lost? For 2014, the GOP would be better off running someone who won't embarrass the party and can use free media to get its message out. This is the same argument I use for Dems in Tennessee.

43, Dem-leaning Ind, CA-6 (old CA-5)
[ Parent ]
As Trende says
Leave the juicy quotes for after she's the D nominee.
http://dailycaller.com/2013/02...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Kentucky
In my view, odds are low that Judd can be the nominee. Kentucky has a closed primary system and a lot of conservative voters still vote in Democratic primaries. Unless the Democrats clear the field for her, I doubt Judd will get into the general election.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Who's going to beat her?
Even if Democrats don't clear the field, you need someone who is a good candidate and can raise money to run against her. No one like that is stepping up. A number of politicians, e.g. John Yarmuth, have lined up behind her. So you run the risk of alienating them if you run against her.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
No, a Democratic challenger does not
No more so than Alvin Greene or Mark Clayton needed money, or name recognition, or endorsements. She could get beat by Ed Marksberry: http://wfpl.org/post/democrat-...

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Any Democrat
who can toss out that list of quotes that Judd has said will beat her.  She's far too liberal and flaky even for the Kentucky Dems.
Don't forget that 41% of West Virginia Dems voted for a convicted felon in prison over Obama in the primary.  Kentucky Dems have a similar mentality.  

Unless the field is completely cleared, Judd won't be their nominee.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Alvin Greene?
Oh, wait ... wrong state.

My answer is: someone other than Ashley Judd. The filing deadline is nearly a year from now.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
This is a real race
Judd is very liberal and doesn't fit a lot of Kentucky. She also Is likable, a famous actress, and cries in the crowd on CBS whenever Kentucky loses in the NCAA tournament.  

So yes, in a race where no one spends money and everyone is unknown Alvin Greene can win. West Virginia Democrats can protest Barack Obama. Ashley Judd will have boatloads of money, raising it from the same people bankrolling Elizabeth Warren. She'll come across as sympathetic and an outsider. She's not going to lose unless someone else spends a huge amount of money against her.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
This isn't California
It's not even Massachusetts. You don't need a huge amount of money to get such a simple message out. Free media coverage of Judd's quotes and positions will be more than enough, which means you need no money at all.

The only way Judd gets the nomination is if there are so many other names on the ballot that she can win with perhaps a third of the primary vote, at best. I realize that a Judd nomination is a GOP wet dream, but you might as well wake up now, because virtually any sane Kentucky Democrat will realize it too.

I stand by what I said and see no reason to add anything more.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I stand by my defense of Judd
We'll disagree. She's likalbe, intelligent, passionate, and any attacks on her will be part of the GOP's war on women. She'll find a way to tone down some of her past remarks. Many sane Democrats are already behind her. Judd has polled very well against McConnell.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

I've heard the "too far to the left" argument before and yet Senators Brown and Baldwin are part of the Democratic caucus. Yes, I know that Kentucky is to the right of Ohio and Wisconsin, but we haven't really seen a true lefty like Judd run for the senate in a red state.

I don't know if any non-incumbent Democrat can win a senate seat in a state where Romney got 60% but Kentucky has a certain uniqueness. There are more Democrats than Republicans in the state. If they dislike McConnell a heavyweight could beat him. I don't dismiss her.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
OK
If Ashley Judd manages to win over her own grandmother, I'll reconsider my assessment.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Roguemapper is talking about the primary
Unlike WI or OH, there are a lot of conservative Democrats remaining in Kentucky.  And they get primary votes, and they are pro coal and pro life.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
I think a fair comparison
to Judd is Tim Donnelly in California.  Both of them are completely out of touch with the state, makes tons of stupid comments, and would lose badly.

Sherrod Brown is a bit too left for his state, but he isn't culturally out of touch for the state.  Tammy Baldwin is, which is why I was stunned to see her win.    

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
free media is not enough
Newspapers and local tv news will mention those quotes once in passing and move on to something else. Most voters don't know about it and won't unless an opponent beats them over the head with it. They know Judd is hot, an actress, and a big UK basketball (the state religion) supporter. She'll get 70% in the primary if none of her opponents can run a real campaign.

Given the state's 58 Obama - 42 uncommitted primary split, a credible blue dog challenger would likely need to spend less than in a typical primary, but they will have to spend.

43, Dem-leaning Ind, CA-6 (old CA-5)

[ Parent ]
I still can't believe money is spent now against Judd
Ashley Judd doesn't scare me in the least for KENTUCKY senate. Nashville Congressional? Well, that's probably dem anyway.

Judd scares me a lot less than some Manchin clone who could run a "gone national" campaign against McConnell. Kentucky isn't THAT Republican. It just doesn't like national democrats.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
WATN
Rory Koch (R-St. Paul), a 2009 candidate for Ramsey County Commissioner and former staffer for state rep Kurt Zellers (R-Maple Grove) has been convicted of 12 counts of child pornography. He is appealing the decision based on the grounds that viewing was not the same as possession.

http://m.startribune.com/?id=1...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Boehner Fundraising for Cotton? Staying in House?
Michigan congressional districts, 1992
http://www.mcgi.state.mi.us/mg...

It's really neat how the 1st district of 1992 very closely resembles the one now, and how the 5th extended up north into the same counties as the 2012 version.

The Democrats once held a 10-6 delegation, too.

26, R, PA-01.



Man, that 9th is a nasty tug-of-war district
The GOP did a good job of turning this map around in 2002. Too bad that all we got from rearranging Oakland County was Thad McCotter.
[ Parent ]
it was a brilliant mapping
The 8th had flipped from Dem to Rep 2 years prior.

The 10th was flipped from Dem to Rep.

The 9th was effectively flipped from Dem to Rep. Knollenberg slid here and McCotter took the new seat.

The 13th was simply eliminated.

I suspect Flint's population collapse over 20 years would deliver us that 9th anyway.  

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
I dunno
Pretty sure that map included Pontiac in its Oakland County slice of the 9th. Maybe in a few more years from now you'd be right, but I don't think there'd be enough Republicans in Rochester/Clarkston/Lake Orion/Auburn Hills and Lapeer to outweight Flint, Pontiac and whatever parts of Burton might be there.
[ Parent ]
Things changed
The 80's map was worse. This was a Court Map I believe

1992-2000 election - Only one district flipped in this decade - the 8th. The 7th, 9th, 10, and 12th were close at various times.

MI-1 - Bart Stupak (D) took an open seat in 92 and never looked back. (was old 11th district)

MI-2 - Pete Hoekstra (D) beat Guy Vander Jaght in 92 and never had a problem. (was old 9th district)

MI-3 - Vern Ehlers (R) replaced Paul Henry who died in 1993 (was old 5th district)

MI-4 - Dave Camp (R) was the incumbent (was old 10th District)

MI-5 - Jim Barcia (D) replaced Bob Traxler (something like the old 8th District)

MI-6 - Fred Upton (R) was incumbent (was old 4th)

MI-7 - Nick Smith (R) had an open seat from parts of the old 3rd (Wolpe) and 2nd (Pursell). Calhoun and Kalamazoo Counties were split, and the small part of Lansing in Ingham County was removed. Wolpe ran for governor. Smith has one close call, but that was it.

MI-8 - Bob Carr (D) lost Pontiac and Waterford. He also now had all of Livingston County (Broomfield had some of it previously). Jim Nunn (R) beat Carr once in the old 6th. Dick Chrysler (R) ran in 92 and almost won. Carr ran for Senate in 94. Chrysler won in 94 in an open seat. Debbie Stabenow (D) won in 96 and 98 and ran for senate in 2000. Mike Rogers (R) won it in 2000. Surprisingly, Rogers won the Washtenaw County portion of the 8th which had Scio and part of Pittsfield townships. The 2002 redistricting took that out, along with the dem leaning Genesee County portion of the district as well in exchange for North Oakland which was in Kildee's district.

MI-9 - Dale Kildee (D) was in the old 7th. He had a close call a couple of times with North Oakland (outside Pontiac) and Lapeer County making things tough. Lapeer wasn't as R then, and North Oakland had less people. Flint and Pontiac saved him. I'm not sure Kildee would have survived that district in 2010 or even 2002.

MI-10 - David Bonior (D) won a district that voted for Bush twice and Reagan twice. I think demographics might have caught up with him in 2004 or 2010 (Shelby Twp type of areas), but it would have been extremely close. He still had Eastpointe and Roseville, and ran very well in St Clair Shores and Clinton Twp.

MI-11 - Joe Knollenberg (R) really had little business hanging on to this district (somewhat like the old 18th and Broomfield) as long as he did. Redford (then conservadem), Southfield, West Bloomfield, Farmington Hills. It was a different era, but Southfield was major dem even then. Clinton won the district at least once, and probably twice. Gore won it by a decent margin, despite West Oakland.

MI-12 - Sander Levin (D) had at least one close call in 94. Troy and Sterling Heights turned against him that year. Too much Southeast Oakland. Somewhat like the old 17th or the old 14th)

MI-13 - Bill Ford (D) moved from the old 15th in this Ypsi district. He at some point moved from Taylor to Ypsi. He stepped down in 94 and Lynn Rivers (R) won a closer than it should have been race. Surprisingly, Ann Arbor was originally in Pursell's (R) district.

MI-14 - John Conyers (D) and MI-15 Barbara Rose Collins (D). Collins lose to Carolyn Kilpatrick in the primary at one point. Those are Detroit districts. There were 2+ in the 80's, but Hertel's district was knocked out.

MI-16 - John Dingell (D) was still downriver and had Monroe County as well.

2002 picked apart the Barcia and Bonior Districts, blue sinked Kildee, blue sinked Sander Levin (Southfield), and put Rivers and Dingell against each other with the intention to knock our Rivers.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Did Lynn Rivers switch parties or something?


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Typo - She was D
Former State rep from Ann Arbor and school board member.

She was a typical Ann Arbor dem.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Make that Lynn Rivers (D)
Whoops. Rivers was former Ann Arbor mayor.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Hagel will be Sec. Def.
71-27: http://livewire.talkingpointsm...

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
PPP WI-GOV
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

sounds about right for now
Walker was polling there right around the initial recall time.

He probably wins by 5 points.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Daines Part of NRCC Regional Chairmain
http://atr.rollcall.com/nrcc-a...

Daines might not run for US Senate now

And Allyson Schwartz is DCCC Finance Chairwoman...


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Which could explain why the NRCC
is spending money attacking SENATOR Baucus!
[ Parent ]
Yeah. i was about to post about this.
Daines is probably gearing-up for a run and is using the resources available to him to soften-up Baucus.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Being on the left means everything is okay
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

If you're on the left, you can be racist and immigrant bash as long as you say you're not racist or bashing immigrants.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

They're trying to make McConnell into a rich business Republican
who doesn't care about the hillbillies and ships their jobs to China. It's actually a smart strategy, given the anti-McConell forces' options. They need to win big swaths of Eastern Kentucky, or at least hold down McConnell's margins over there and win bigger elsewhere. McConnell has had a tradition of not taking his wife with him when he campaigns in the hills and hollers. I actually think that at this point, she can go anywhere with him. Eastern Kentucky is deep red these days, even though Judd will probably outperform Obama in many counties in the region simply due to downballot tendencies.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Judd has about the same chance
as Rick Santorum would if he was running in Massachusetts or California.  Actually thinking about it, Judd has even less than that.

Christie 2016  
[ Parent ]
Good plan, but D's need good ole boy for that
Could Ken Lucas give him a scare?  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Lucas is 80.
He makes McConnell, at 71, look like a spring chicken. I'd say that Ben Chandler would be a good candidate, but he just lost his house seat. State Auditor Adam Edelen could have the right profile. He's from out in the sticks in Meade County. Grimes is too liberal. Ditto on Abramson. Conway is likely scarred from his '10 loss, though he might rise from the ashes.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
More on anti-McConnell SuperPac
http://www.politico.com/story/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Christie to cave on Medicaid
http://www.nj.com/politics/ind...

Who are the holdouts?

27, Republican, PA-6

I think that there are a good number of states left.
It's a terrible burden on future taxpayers, but it can bring short-term gains for officeholders.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I don't think Christie
is going to make much of an attempt to win Tea Party types in the 2016 primary.  He's going for the center-right strategy whole hog, and he may further make comments in the primaries that alienate the right flank of the party to keep his strength in the general election.

 

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
PA-12; Critz thinking about a rematch
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Critz is capable of thinking?
Huh, interesting. I just figured he was a puppet controlled by the Cambria County Democratic Party.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Unwinnable
This district, as currently drawn, is unwinnable for Critz. The western part of the district is simply not willing to consider Critz as an option.

It's my opinion that Altmire could win this district. However, he is no longer interested in running for elected office.

Critz needs to go away, for good.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

[ Parent ]
Unwinnable
The Democrats can win this district, but they need to find a good candidate quick.  This seat will be out of reach of Rothfus entrenches himself.  He has a very Toomeyesque personality, which plays well.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Rothfus and Toomey
Well, they're both wonkish but I'm of the opinion that Rothfus is a bit warmer and more outgoing than the quiet and slightly shy Toomey. Toomey is rather quiet when on the Senate Floor amongst other Senators, from my experience.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
The ideal candidate
is someone from the North Hills. Someone in the mold of Altmire. Someone like...Frank Dermody, whom I can't stand but think would win.

And you're right, the longer Rothfus stays in the seat, the more comfortable voters will become with him. This has rang true in places like Beaver Co, where Republicans now hold traditionally D seats.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

[ Parent ]
Dermody
Dermody is a terrible candidate for the Dems.  He is too socially liberal and is clearly incompetent (remember the Democrats would have lost a State House seat if not for the Obama campaign).  Critz might be a jerk, but he can run a competent campaign.

The Dems need a private sector candidate like Altmire if they are going to win this seat ever again.  As you said, once this area starts electing Republicans at the legislative level, the Democrats don't even compete within a few elections.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Allegheny state legislators
There are several who will be merged in the 2014 maps. Maybe one of them takes a shot.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
MT-Sen; Baucus moving his home, does this mean anything?
http://missoulian.com/news/sta...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Baucus
While we'll miss living by our neighbors in Helena, we'll still be spending a lot of time there visiting family, friends and taking time to listen to community members.

Hmm... Baucus is notorious for forgetting his staff members' names and for rarely being back in Montana, except during campaign season. Like he expects us to believe that he knows his neighbors? Pufh.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
NC-6; Coble hospitalized
http://www.news-record.com/hom...

I hope he retires and all of the other representatives over the age of 80.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Club For Growth GA Senate Rankings
There it goes
Paul voted to confirm Hagel.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Cochran, Shelby & Johanns
Are the other Rs.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
So Paul votes against cloture but for the nomination
Huh? That makes no sense.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
I think he voted for cloture


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
No
I didn't see his name listed among the Republicans  who voted for cloture, and I checked myself on the Senate website, and he is listed as a "nay" on the cloture vote.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
This cloture vote?


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
You are right


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
TX-33: Domingo Garcia wants a shot at Veasey
http://trailblazersblog.dallas...

If Domingo did cut a deal with Republicans for the new district, it turned out to be a bad one for him. Congressional District 33 includes much of the area Veasey represented in the Texas House. Though the district is mostly Hispanic, it's currently controlled by black voters in southeast Tarrant County.

Heh.

26, R, PA-01.



NY-22; Hanna getting a serious primary over supporting gay marriage?
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Sullivan gets the sigs
http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

At this point I'm 100% undecided between him and Winslow. Sullivan's resume smacks Winslow's 8 ways from Sunday on paper, he has a strong grassroots organization, and is far more likely to stop Gomez from winning on a split vote. OTOH Winslow obviously wants it so much more than Sullivan does.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Markey-Sullivan might be among the sleepliest showdowns ever
If the GOP primary is decided on sheer name rec, Sullivan will win. If it's decided on enthusiasm, organization and ground game, Winslow prevails. If the national GOP has its way, Gomez will triumph.

In terms of the general, though, in chatting with fellow Mass GOPers over the past few weeks, there seems to be a consensus Sullivan would be weakest. Gomez is high risk-high reward, but the Patrick story may have effectively killed his bid already. Winslow's the safe, if uninspiring pick.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I'll at least
give Sullivan a shot to see if he can run a real campaign. I'm not sure he can, but if he can convince me he really wants it rather than is just going through the motions, he's probably got my vote.

I disagree with your second point - while there's no doubt Winslow has a better organization, Sullivan has much stronger enthusiasm. I mean, getting 20K signatures in 11 days without paying or even really campaigning for them is pretty darn impressive.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Charlie Wilson Recovering From Stroke
http://www.cleveland.com/open/...

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
NYC-Mayor: Quinn keeps crushing
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

Quinn 37, De Blasio 14, Thompson 11, Liu 9
Quinn 63, Lhota 19

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

WAY too early to mean anything!
Right now that's just a poll of name recognition. Election isnt until September and NYers wont even start paying attention to this until petitioning starts in June.  
[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for February 26, 2013 | 152 comments
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