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Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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San Diego Mayoral Election, 2013: SUSA finds Kevin Faulconer Leading

by: RockRibbedR

Sun Nov 03, 2013 at 19:00:48 PM EST


The San Diego Union-Tribune and ABC 10News San Diego commissioned a poll of the recent upcoming mayoral primary/general elections.

"The 10News/U-T San Diego poll was conducted from Oct. 28-31 by SurveyUSA and interviewed 700 city of San Diego adults registered to vote. The margin of sampling error ranged from +/- 4.2 to 4.3 percent on the questions."

Kevin Faulconer (R): 41%
Nathan Fletcher (D): 28%
David Alvarez (D): 17%
Mike Aguierre (D): 7%
Undecided: 4%
Other: 3%
RockRibbedR :: San Diego Mayoral Election, 2013: SUSA finds Kevin Faulconer Leading
Well, it's solid news that the Republican base is generally coalescing around Kevin Faulconer. Still, with only 16 days left until the primary election, we need to hope for a few things. First, we need to hope that Mike Aguierre's support shifts to David Alvarez, seeing as Alvarez is the race's most viable non-Fletcher Democrat. We also need to hope that an anti-Fletcher campaign mounts so that David Alvarez can steal enough of his support to squeak into the general, because Alvarez will be far easier to defeat than Fletcher will be. I'd imagine that, with the support of the San Diego/Imperial Labor Council and other unions, Alvarez should have a solid, union-backed ground game.

It's also worth noting that in SUSA's late September poll, Fletcher was at 30%, Faulconer was at 22%, Alvarez was at 17%, and Aguierre was at 9%. In SUSA's mid-October poll, Fletcher was at 32%, Faulconer was at 28%, Alvarez was at 20%, and Aguierre was at 8%.

Therefore, in good news for Faulconer, it looks like a good amount of Fletcher's supporters are switching to Faulconer's side. However, in bad news for Faulconer, Aguierre isn't losing enough votes to Alvarez and Alvarez isn't gaining enough Fletcher support (if any at all). Hopefully, Aguierre's support will collapse and Alvarez will pick enough supporters up from him and from Fletcher to make the top two.

As for the two most likely general election match ups...

Faulconer: 52%
Alvarez: 36%

Faulconer: 46%
Fletcher: 41%

Faulconer would defeat Alvarez in a walk. I also like seeing that Faulconer would lead Fletcher. I was expecting the undecideds to be pretty brutal for Faulconer, but they're not; it seems like ~60-66% would break for Fletcher, which would mean that the race would be pretty much a pure toss up. Faulconer actually receives more Democratic votes than Fletcher does Republican votes. Faulconer would also lead slightly with independent voters.

Hopefully, if Fletcher makes the general, Alvarez's supporters (union members and minorities) will stay home in disgust. I was skeptical before, but I now think that Kevin Faulconer could defeat Nathan Fletcher in the general election. Fletcher's being hit hard as a flip flopper and as an opportunist, and he could be the type of politician with a support base that's a mile wide but an inch deep.

"Faulconer also benefits from early voting, where he has already "banked" 48 percent of the ballots returned. Among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Faulconer leads by 19 points."

This snippet from the News10 summary of the poll results is very good news for Kevin Faulconer. Republicans/Faulconer supporters seem to be the most eager voters in the mayoral race. This bodes well for his general election chances.

Here's a link to the poll results:
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

This 10News article breaks the poll down well: http://www.10news.com/news/pol...

It's worth noting that SurveyUSA pretty much nailed the San Diego mayoral general election's final results in a poll for 10News back in November of 2012.

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2012/...

So, RRH community, what happens in the next few weeks? Who makes the top two? Can Faulconer defeat Fletcher in the general? If so, where does his path to victory run through?

Poll
Who will San Diego's next mayor be?
Kevin Faulconer
Nathan Fletcher

Results

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SD Mayor Race
Here's an even better summary of the poll from the San Diego Union-Tribune:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news...

Firefighter and police officer unions have sent mailers promoting Fletcher, who recently gained the high-profile endorsement of Gov. Jerry Brown.

Meanwhile, a pro-Faulconer television ad featuring popular ex-Mayor Jerry Sanders giving a testimonial for the councilman has aired repeatedly on major channels and he has been largely been spared from attacks.

It's great news that Sanders is on the air for Faulconer.

Here's that Sanders/Faulconer ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Here's Faulconer's most recent TV ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Here's another interesting takeaway from the article:

Alvarez also is struggling to attract Latinos, according to the poll, which found that 34 percent of those respondents were backing Faulconer compared to 27 percent for both Alvarez and Fletcher. That's down from 32 percent for Alvarez from the Oct. 13 poll.

I find those numbers slightly hard to believe, but Faulconer has earned some solid Latino group endorsements and has apparently actively courted Latino votes. Hopefully, those numbers are pretty accurate.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


SD Mayor Race
Here's an even better summary of the poll from the San Diego Union-Tribune:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news...

Firefighter and police officer unions have sent mailers promoting Fletcher, who recently gained the high-profile endorsement of Gov. Jerry Brown.

Meanwhile, a pro-Faulconer television ad featuring popular ex-Mayor Jerry Sanders giving a testimonial for the councilman has aired repeatedly on major channels and he has been largely been spared from attacks.

It's great news that Sanders is on the air for Faulconer.

Here's that Sanders/Faulconer ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Here's Faulconer's most recent TV ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Here's another interesting takeaway from the article:

Alvarez also is struggling to attract Latinos, according to the poll, which found that 34 percent of those respondents were backing Faulconer compared to 27 percent for both Alvarez and Fletcher. That's down from 32 percent for Alvarez from the Oct. 13 poll.

I find those numbers slightly hard to believe, but Faulconer has earned some solid Latino group endorsements and has apparently actively courted Latino votes. Hopefully, those numbers are pretty accurate.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


You're jacking up my hopes way too high.
I still think that Fletcher will be the next Mayor. Then again, Faulconer is from the land of surfers and yuppie swing voters.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Progressives claiming Alvarez will be top two
http://obrag.org/?p=78016&co=f...

It's a progressive blog citing an AFT poll with no back-up but they're claiming that it's "Faulconer at 37.2%, Alvarez at 21.7%, and Fletcher trailing but still barely within the margin of error at 16.3%."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Datamar says Faulconer v. Alvarez
http://www.scribd.com/doc/1840...

I can't figure out who this company is and who commissioned this poll, but it matches the progressive poll from a few days ago. Fletcher appears to be fading.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


SUSA puts the race neck and neck
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Faulconer: 40%
Fletcher: 24%
Alvarez: 22%

It looks like this race may come down to late VBM and provisionals. That's going to frustrate people on this board to no end.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


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