|Well, it's solid news that the Republican base is generally coalescing around Kevin Faulconer. Still, with only 16 days left until the primary election, we need to hope for a few things. First, we need to hope that Mike Aguierre's support shifts to David Alvarez, seeing as Alvarez is the race's most viable non-Fletcher Democrat. We also need to hope that an anti-Fletcher campaign mounts so that David Alvarez can steal enough of his support to squeak into the general, because Alvarez will be far easier to defeat than Fletcher will be. I'd imagine that, with the support of the San Diego/Imperial Labor Council and other unions, Alvarez should have a solid, union-backed ground game.
It's also worth noting that in SUSA's late September poll, Fletcher was at 30%, Faulconer was at 22%, Alvarez was at 17%, and Aguierre was at 9%. In SUSA's mid-October poll, Fletcher was at 32%, Faulconer was at 28%, Alvarez was at 20%, and Aguierre was at 8%.
Therefore, in good news for Faulconer, it looks like a good amount of Fletcher's supporters are switching to Faulconer's side. However, in bad news for Faulconer, Aguierre isn't losing enough votes to Alvarez and Alvarez isn't gaining enough Fletcher support (if any at all). Hopefully, Aguierre's support will collapse and Alvarez will pick enough supporters up from him and from Fletcher to make the top two.
As for the two most likely general election match ups...
Faulconer would defeat Alvarez in a walk. I also like seeing that Faulconer would lead Fletcher. I was expecting the undecideds to be pretty brutal for Faulconer, but they're not; it seems like ~60-66% would break for Fletcher, which would mean that the race would be pretty much a pure toss up. Faulconer actually receives more Democratic votes than Fletcher does Republican votes. Faulconer would also lead slightly with independent voters.
Hopefully, if Fletcher makes the general, Alvarez's supporters (union members and minorities) will stay home in disgust. I was skeptical before, but I now think that Kevin Faulconer could defeat Nathan Fletcher in the general election. Fletcher's being hit hard as a flip flopper and as an opportunist, and he could be the type of politician with a support base that's a mile wide but an inch deep.
"Faulconer also benefits from early voting, where he has already "banked" 48 percent of the ballots returned. Among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Faulconer leads by 19 points."
This snippet from the News10 summary of the poll results is very good news for Kevin Faulconer. Republicans/Faulconer supporters seem to be the most eager voters in the mayoral race. This bodes well for his general election chances.
Here's a link to the poll results:
This 10News article breaks the poll down well: http://www.10news.com/news/pol...
It's worth noting that SurveyUSA pretty much nailed the San Diego mayoral general election's final results in a poll for 10News back in November of 2012.
So, RRH community, what happens in the next few weeks? Who makes the top two? Can Faulconer defeat Fletcher in the general? If so, where does his path to victory run through?