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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Political Roundup for June 5, 2014

by: James_Nola

Thu Jun 05, 2014 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


Senate

Mississippi: Sen. Thad Cochran's backers are refusing to back down after a run-off was officially declared for the Republican Senate nomination. His advisers and outside groups supporting him huddled yesterday coming up with a game plan for the 3 week run-off, centered on driving Democrats and independents to the polls to vote for Cochran, as well as striking fear into the hearts and minds of voters as to the potential pitfalls of a Senate nominee and Senator McDaniel. Other Cochran supporters, however, face the dilemma of whether or not to attack McDaniel in the run-off, when he is more likely than not to wind up as the Republican nominee in a potentially competitive election.

More Mississippi: Making the decision for Cochran backers easier is the continued ineptitude of Chris McDaniel's supporters to not violate the law. A McDaniel staffer called the Hinds County GOP Chair early yesterday morning to say she was locked in a courthouse...with 2 other McDaniel supporters...with thousands of ballots. The 3 are under investigation by the Hinds County sheriff. The next 3 weeks look to be a blast.

South Carolina: A new poll by Clemson University has Sen. Lindsey Graham on the cusp of avoiding a run-off, with 49%. His nearest challenger pulls a whopping 9% of the vote.

Georgia: The momentum continues for Rep. Jack Kingston, as Rep. Phil Gingrey, who likely helped Kingston into the run-off by drawing Metro ATL support from Karen Handel, has endorsed Kingston. Gingrey joins Handel and Reps. Lynn Westmoreland and Tom Price in endorsing Kingston in his run-off with David Perdue.

Iowa: Bruce Braley's stunningly out of touch campaign continued yesterday, as he debuted a new ad attacking Joni Ernst for being a big spender, inviting a debate with Ernst about who has the worst record on spending. I think we all know who loses that debate. And this is on top of his ad last week, telling of the incredible kindness and compassion of trial lawyers.

Alaska: An internal poll by Lt. Gov candidate Dan A. Sullivan has Dan S. Sullivan leading the Republican Senate primary, but by a much smaller margin than other polls show. His poll has the other Sullivan up 37-35 over Lt. Gov Mead Treadwell, whereas other polls have shown Sullivan with a double digit lead.

Delaware: Sometimes, no candidate is truly the best option. In Delaware, this was the case as Christine O'Donnell considered a rematch with accidental Sen. Chris Coons. Luckily, we got our choice candidate here, as O'Donnell has ruled out another Senate campaign.  

House

ME-02: A PPP poll for LCV shows state Sen. Emily Cain leading fellow state Sen. Tory Jackson 60-25 ahead of next week's Democratic primary. While LCV is a strong supporter of Cain, these numbers don't defy the CW that Cain, a rising star in the ME Democratic Party, has a strong advantage heading into Tuesday.

CA-25: State Sen. Steve Knight has received a welcome boost in his general election campaign against fellow Republican Tony Strickland: the endorsement of third place finisher (and Democrat) Lee Rogers.

MN-06: Former State Rep. and think tank leader Phil Krinkie has dropped out of the Republican primary, leaving Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah as the only (minor) speed bump to former state Rep. Tom Emmer's coronation.

States

PA-Gov: A third poll in a week shows Gov. Tom Corbett in worse condition than any Governor I can think of at this point in recent history: trailing challenger Tom Wolf by 20, with Wolf over 50%.

CO-Gov: An internal poll for Bob Beauprez shows him as the candidate best positioned to take down Tom Tancredo in the GOP primary, trailing the Tanc only 27-25. SoS Scott Gessler, who has led in recent fundraising, is far behind with 13%.

MN-Auditor: A major development on filing day in this race, as wealthy former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza has decided to take on DFL incumbent Rebecca Otto in the primary. Entenza notably spent $6 million of his own money in the 2010 Gubernatorial primary against now-Gov. Mark Dayton and the DFL endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Entenza appears to be running to Otto's left, and, should he win or even damage her, could give us a decent shot at taking this office with former Long Lake Mayor Randy Gilbert.  

James_Nola :: Political Roundup for June 5, 2014
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ID Governor Poll
Idaho Govenor
Otter (R) 50%
Balukoff (D) 36%

Otter has been somewhat damaged since the primary, he will still be the overwhelming favorite here though.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


Otter
What a way to be somewhat damaged...to have a 14 pt. lead. I think most Republicans running for office would happily take that sort of damage any day of the week. :-)

[ Parent ]
Obama lost Idaho by 32 points
so for Otter a long time incumbent to only be up 14 against a C level Democrat is indeed quite damaging.  

If other Republicans gladly accepted running 18 points behind Mitt Romney Democrats would happily accept that scenario and they would run the tables.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Eh faulty logic
Non-nationalized races always have different dynamics.  If Democrats are content running 15-20 points behind Obama in California, for example, Republicans would happily accept that scenario and the GOP would run the table.

[ Parent ]
Butch Otter
Is very underwhelming.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Crystal Ball MS Senate IA Senate
New Crystal Ball article this morning:

http://www.centerforpolitics.o...

As the article title implies, they are crediting Jones county for McDaniel's lead over Cochran.

Their initial rating for the runoff: Lean McDaniel

Change in general election for MS Senate: From Safe R to Likely R

No change in their Lean D Iowa Rating yet; but it now seems more likely that in the future they'll move it to Tossup than to Likely D.

Following House changes:

CA-26 From Likely D to Leans D

CA-25 From Lean R to Safe R  (Due to Republicans sweeping top 2)

IA-4 From Safe R to Likely R

IA-2 From Safe D to Likely D

NJ-3 From Tossup to Leans R


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


CA 31 Gooch Concedes
BREAKING NEWS #CA31 - Lesli Gooch calls Pete Aguilar to concede election, AP reported at 11:15 PST

Drat!
Would have been so nice ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Colorado Dems trying to get Tancredo nominated
Well this is becoming standard fare for Democrats -- trying to influence our primaries.

http://kdvr.com/2014/06/05/dem...

"The 30-second spot focused on Tancredo labels him "one of the country's strongest opponents of Obamacare", notes he called the Affordable Care Act "a scam" and concludes with this: "Tom Tancredo: He's just too conservative for Colorado."

And because contribution limits are so low in Colorado, a majority of the money spent on this race will probably be from outside groups.


34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


We've gottot figure out how to do this ourselves.
It's a bit different, but maybe we could boost Cutler's numbers in Maine by running ads praising his liberal bona fides.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Better yet
Attack both Michaud and Cutler, but then focus on Cutler in the ad.

You could say, "We already know how liberal Michaud is, but do you know where Cutler stands?"  

It would be a good way to draw/influence the 4% of the Green Party members to vote for Cutler as opposed to Michaud.

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
Or just run pac ads praising pro-life Michaud
for standing up to pro-choice pols like Cutler.

[ Parent ]
Tancredo
RR -- I went to a fundraiser for Tancredo, recently, to meet him and get a sense of the sort of person who supports him.  There was a large, passionate turnout, which surprised me, frankly.  

He has incredible grassroots support, RR, not big money from outsiders. Even the populist RMGO (Rocky Mountain Gun Owners) endorsed another candidate, Kopp.  

It appeared that his base of support was evangelicals, RTW, RTL, Mormons, many gunnies but not all, people worried about the schools and wanting more choice, private property advocates, families more than older people, military and patriotic sorts, homeschoolers, prolifers, passionate anti-Obamaites, etc.  

He's not the candidate of the political/media establishment or the establishment/centrist wing of the party, that's for sure. That's Gessler -- the establishment's dream candidate.  And, running at a close second for the establishment is Beauprez.  

From my wee perspective, the race is congealing between Beauprez (establishment) and Tancredo (populist).  Tancredo will win -- prediction.

How he does in the general is anyone's guess but Udall's stock is falling fast.


[ Parent ]
Tancredo would face Hickenlooper, not Udall.
Unless you're seeing Udall's numbers as a proxy for Hickenlooper (which they aren'), I don't understand you. Hick is doing well in polling.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Tired
That's what I meant.  Too tired to make sense.  Sorry.

[ Parent ]
Sure sounds like Schweitzer is '16's Bill Bradley
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

I am all for it
If he wants to run and try and damage her in the primary.  Force her to run left or right (anger the base).  Either way it is helpful for Republicans, having two primaries that would occur in 2016 would be better than none.  And Schweitzer, if he ran would almost certainly have Montana under his belt in the primary.

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
I actually think he's a legitimate threat
He can attack her from both the right and the left.  He's more populist and less old news.  Sound familiar?  It's like Obama '08.  Granted, he won't be able to get the minority support like Obama, but he'll eat into her blue collar dem base more, and be able to pick up a lot of Kos kids.

Don't get me wrong, he's a heavy, heavy underdog.  But I could see him drawing into that inside straight.  He's got the cards to do it.  

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
I doubt it
Hillary has the all-important "First Woman President" thing going for her, and in a D primary that's huge.  The only reason Obama was able to beat it in 2008 is that "First Black President" is equally strong.

If Clinton runs, the only person who could beat her in a 1-on-1 race is Warren, who can neutralize the gender issue and play to Clinton's Left.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Warren doesn't have 1/10th of the political chops that Hilary does
And Wall Street would invest heavily in seeing her crumble. She's a paper tiger.

Libertarian Moderate, WI-3

[ Parent ]
That's a fair point
Although I do wonder if that gets somewhat neutralized by her being "old news," particularly to younger progressives and blue collar D's disenchanted with Obama.  

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
Depends on the political climate
Wanting to win is a pretty strong factor for Democrats, and the more hardcore partisans tend to believe they aren't taking the House till 2022. I really don't see Democrats being in a purist mood.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Clinton, Obama, Edwards
Obama wasn't the populist alternative to Clinton. That was Edwards. Obama was the leftist alternative to Clinton.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Other than on Iraq, he really wasn't
He ran as being moderately pro-gun (or at least not antagonistic to the NRA), against an individual mandate, and blurring the differences (i.e. "There is no red America or blue America,").  

Admittedly, his strategy was essentially to be all things to all people, and he got away with it because he had such a thin resume.  But he purposefully tried to get both to her right and left at the same time.  And largely succeeded.  

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
Parsing Obama
"Here's the bottom line. If I were designing a system from scratch I would probably set up a single-payer system...But we're not designing a system from scratch... So what I believe is we should set up a series of choices... Over time it may be that we end up transitioning to such a system. For now, I just want to make sure every American is covered..." - Obama, 2008

The 2008 Democratic primary was about three issues: the Iraq War, healthcare reform, and the first black/woman president. The Iraq War was a slam dunk for Obama. Voters were persuaded, whether right or wrong, that he was the more likely than Clinton to usher in single-payer, if not immediately then soon enough, and the third issue was basically a draw. That's why Obama won.  

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Bradley had a chance, Schweitzer doesn't
Bradley ran as the liberal alternative to Gore. He was clearly to Gore's left on a number of major issues. There is a slim (very slim) opening for a candidate to run to Clinton's left. Schweitzer is sort of trying to be that candidate. But Schweitzer isn't the leftist alternative to Clinton, he's the populist alternative to Clinton. That's not the same thing. The Democratic Party isn't really looking for a populist right now. It's looking for a progressive. Schweitzer is to Clinton's right on way too many hotbutton issues to have any viable prospect of giving her a serious challenge.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
"But Schweitzer isn't the leftist alternative to Clinton, he's the populist alternative to Clinton. "
That's correct.  But a lot of the modern left sees its self as a populist movement, correctly or incorrectly.  Which is why Schweitzer could mobilize a lot of dumb hipster kids as well as blue collar types. He can sell his bolo-tie-and-jeans thing pretty well to those types.

Bradley was trying to sell policy.  That doesn't work.  Selling personality and a persona works.  Schweitzer can do that.

Again, I don't think he'll be able to do it.  I'm saying if the cards fall his way it's possible.  And I think it's a lot more possible than Bradley.  

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
hipsters
Schweitzer is not going to get Democratic 'hipsters' by supporting the Keystone pipeline, promoting coal mining, vetoing medical marijuana, and touting a "you control yours, I'll control mine" gun policy with an A rating from the NRA.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Although I thin there is a case to be made that are stupid and purely image driven and can be sold a bill of goods no matter what his actual policy stances are.

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
stupid, image-driven Democrats
Are going to vote for "the first woman President" and that's that.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Like I said...
Maybe.  I'm not totally convinced of that. You could be right but she's also going to be 69 and have been in the news for 24 straight years.  

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
OK
Can you give me the 'line' that stupid, image-driven Democrats are going to give their equally shallow, stupid friends to justify why they're going to vote for Schweitzer over "the first woman President"? And bear in mind these are stupid, self-centered Democrats who know little to nothing about the actual campaign, though they did somehow pick up Schweitzer's name from somewhere.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
This is correct
Schweitzer, O'Malley, Biden, and whichever of the other seven dwarves who run have zero chance against Hillary. Zero.

The only way you beat Hillary is by aggressively tapping into the segment of the base that thinks they can do better than her. We know these people exist because they came out strong for Obama--but he also had the unique ability to bring out new voters (mostly blacks and college kids) in droves. Because there isn't an compelling alternative like Obama, the Hillary skeptics are very quiet right now, but the right candidate can awaken them. I just don't know if that person exists.


[ Parent ]
Warren is the only one who could possibly do it
We saw from the Senate race that she has a national network of highly motivated activist left supporters. She is, without qualification, the only Democrat who can even hope to compete with Hillary in that regard.

Now, that's not to say she can or will beat Hillary; a lot of things would have to go right for her. But she's the only one who could.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I agree
I see no one else on the horizon who even has an opening. Warren could conceivably catch lightning in a bottle and pull it off, but odds are she doesn't run to begin with if Hillary runs, which leaves no one that I can think of.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Scraping the bottom of the barrel here
but maybe Peter Shumlin. And the odds of that are crossing the line from a regular dark-horse to shooting an arrow through a Cheerio at 100 yards.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I don't think Warren would run against her
Warren is a career academic and a good progressive soldier. I think she'd explore an open-field race, but to runnning against Hillary requires an almost hubristic desire to be president (see Obama, who began running when he was about 21). Warren may want to be president, but she doesn't need to be.

[ Parent ]
When opportunity knocks, you answer the door
I see a Warren run as something like a Reagan '68 type race. Not something he was really planning for, and with no guarantee of victory, but a chance too good to pass up.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
By the way
Some stats that may be helpful in answering the question.

Schweitzer is polling anywhere from 0% and 1% in 2016 Democratic primary trial heats. 85% of Democrats don't know who he is. From the 15% who say they know who he is, 11% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 4% have a favorable opinion of him. In the three polls that have been taken of the 2016 Democratic primary in the state of Montana, Hillary beats Schweitzer two to one. In nationwide 2016 primary polls that have given a demographic breakdown, Schweitzer has 0% support among women and 0% support among blacks.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
That's totally meaningless at this point
Nobody knew who Jimmy Carter was in 1976 either, and not that many knew who Bill Clinton was in 1992.  

I've said from the get-go I think this is a longshot that is unlikely to happen. I've merely argued I think he's got the cards to where drawing an inside straight could possibly happen.  If you aren't a poker player, you usually don't win trying to get an inside straight, it's merely possible. These numbers don't change that at all.  

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
Not quite
You've argued a specific path to the nomination for Schweitzer that I contend doesn't exist. The paths that Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton took to the nomination were unlikely but foreseeable. The path you've basically argued for Schweitzer - low-info young urban professionals who somehow think supporting him is the 'hip' cool thing to do - is completely out of the realm of possibility.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Umm...your train of thought does not follow.
You can argue that he has no path forward, fine.  The numbers you posted have absolutely, positively, nothing whatsoever to do with disproving my point. Nothing. Nada. And you've given zero reason why the numbers disprove my point.  

And what's more, you're misstating history. Carter's path wasn't "forseeable" by any traditional measure.  Nobody had ever paid attention to the Iowa Caucuses before Carter.  He won it and used it to slingshot forward in New Hampshire etc.

You're also misstating my point, badly.  I didn't argue that Schweitzer's path forward is "low-info young urban professionals."  What I SAID was that low-info young people (not necessarily urban, not necessarily professionals) could be PART of his coalition, along with blue collar workers.

I don't really want to get into this.  I've stated a theoretical possibility, which I admit is a longshot, that you disagree with.  Fine.  But you're throwing random factoids against the wall randomly to try to make something stick with no logic behind it other than "Well, he's not winning now and some of his past policy positions might make it difficult."  Neither of which I've contested.  

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
Carter
You misunderstood my point. If someone was charting out Carter's path to the White House when he was still at 1% support like Schweitzer is now, they would've charted much the path that he took: A Washington 'outsider' in a packed multi-candidate field (9) with no clear frontrunner.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
As for the numbers
In order to get the vote of stupid, image-driven people they (a) need to know who you are, and (b) need to have the impression that voting for you will enhance their image. My question to you is how does Schweitzer get from 0% to that. All I asked for was a remotely-plausible line that these stupid, image-driven Democrats would use to explain why they're voting for Schweitzer over Hillary.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
FWIW, I agree with you.
Hillary gets all of those voters.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Well, you're changing the story on me now, but,
That said, forget that.  I've more or less already provided it, but...

A. Hillary is "Old and boring."  They won't be enthusiastic about her.  I doubt the "first woman" thing is all that strong with them.
B. Schweitzer is a Cowboy from Montana who vetoes bills with a branding iron young people are fancying themselves as tough outdoor types no-matter how untrue it is.  
C. Schweitzer can also appeal to blue collar and rural type Democrats, i.e. he's not a bad fit for Iowa, and Hillary's already lost Iowa once, badly. She was tied with John Edwards for God's sake.    
D. If someone can win Iowa, they'll be competitive elsewhere. Period.  The only exception was Harkin in '92 but since he was a homeboy everyone wrote the state off.  

Is this likely?  No.  Will this happen?  Probably not.  Even if it happens, will he get the nomination?  Probably not.  Is this plausible if all the dominoes fall the right way?  Sure.  I'm not sure it's all that much less implausible than Obama winning Iowa, and after that who knows?

WA-2 Home District, Lives in DC.  
Lawyer, writer, political hack.  


[ Parent ]
you're changing the story on me..
I guess we're tossing goalposts all over the place! lol

What you've described is not the stupid, image-driven hipster path to the nomination. You've described the populist-progressive, caucus-insurgent path to the nomination. The same path to the nomination that Edwards found out wasn't viable under much less formidable circumstances.

Sure, the stupid, image-driven hipsters come on board in your scenario, but that's only after the 'young and exciting' sixty-year-old Schweitzer takes off as a populist by winning Iowa. I suppose I'll concede that if Schweitzer has any path at all, that's what it is, but I don't see any great desire for that in the Democratic Party right now.

We agree it's unlikely and probably won't happen. So at this point our only real disagreement is a matter of degrees. I'm OK with that.

By the way, Clinton is polling at around 65% in Iowa. Did you know that in 2006 Clinton was polling fourth in Iowa? I doubt it, because of the revisionist view that's taken hold since then. Obama and Edwards were polling in the low 20s, Vilsack in the low teens, and Clinton at around 10%. So, I'm afraid the myth that Obama came out of nowhere is just that.

But we shall see!

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
might I add
It's not even the angle Schweitzer is going for. He's going for the populist "blue-collar guy who takes a shower after work" angle. Something I said to begin with Democrats aren't looking for right now, in large part because most of those guys will be voting in the Republican primary if they vote at all.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter
Hillary will be the nominee. She looms even larger over her party than she did in 2008. And with their obsession over the "War on Women" aka, we needed something to fight the growing Pro-Life majority, the Democrats will not be able to resist their obsession with identity politics and NOT go with a female nominee.

Someone will challenge her in the primary, its too big of a opportunity/ego boost, but they will flame out, just like Bill Bradley.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Filing vs Hillary
Is a way for someone to be in the wings if there's a medical event that derails her or get into the " on-deck" circle for '20 should she lose.
For an O'Malley et al, why not?

[ Parent ]
O'Malley wants to be her Veep
He will run a purely butt-kissing campaign against her in hopes of getting the #2 slot.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Dems need min 1 non-white on ticket
Hillary will be hard pressed to pick a non-white as VP, think Booker, Kasim Reed, J&J Castro's.  Non-whites are bumping to be 50% of Dems presidential level vote.  

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I think it's going to be hard for the Democrats to run an all-white ticket from now on.  Not impossible, but O'Malley brings so little to the ticket that I don't know why Clinton would pick him.

I could even see Clinton openly telegraphing a Julian Castro VP pick before the primaries start, just to lock down the Hispanic vote against any potential challenger.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
She's not going to reach for an unknown like Reed
The ideal running mate for Clintoj would be Susana Martinez, if Martinez weren't a Republican..

[ Parent ]
We're talking the Clintons here, so...
...there isn't a chance in hell she selects anyone who supported Obama over her in the '08 primaries. Not sure if Booker, Reed or the Castros even made endorsements at that time, but I'm just saying.

Frankly, I wouldn't put it past the Clintons to go with McAuliffe.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Yep
A Clinton presidency would be establishment hack central.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Which is why O'Malley could make sense
He was a big-time Clinton supporter in 2008. The fact that he brings little to the ticket may be irrelevant. If Hillary is convinced she will win, her only concern will be picking someone with absolute loyalty. O'Malley could fit that bill a lot better than someone with more of his own brand like Castro or Booker.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Really good anaylsis of the Bergdahl deal from James Taranto
It starts:
"If I've lost Neuman, I've lost Middle America." That's how we imagine President Obama reacting to being scathed by MAD magazine.

The whole article is well worth a read:
http://online.wsj.com/articles...

This one is good too

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/379481/why-team-obama-was-blindsided-bergdahl-backlash-ralph-peters

The relevance for electoral politics is that both articles highlight a difference in the way the left and the right view the military, and many issues in general.

A key phrase from the WSJ article: "Isquith seems to imply that servicemen are fungible, each entitled to equal respect regardless of conduct." (emphasis mine)

For me that is one of the most salient differences between the left and conservatives: to the left, it's who you are, not what you do, that matters. To conservatives, the opposite is true.

My fear is that this country has been continuously shifting towards the left's view on this divide. I think it is very difficult to advocate conservative policy views if a majority of Americans choose to believe that identity trumps behavior.  



R.36.Madison, WI since 1982.

[ Parent ]
MA Filling
5 congressional Dems are unopposed in November

Errr......Six Actually....
Posted about it on RMG here...
http://www.redmassgroup.com/sh...

Challenging 20/40 Senate, and 73/160 House Districts. Full slate of Statewide candidates. The MassGOP is still a mess...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Props to the Green running against Tsongas
At least it won't be unopposed like the other races.  

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
Politics1
Has republican against Tsongas


[ Parent ]
Rep. Capauno then
Either way it is a Democrat and a Green.  Sad to see so many races unopposed in the House races, but if they are not winnable then they are not winnable.  

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
Too bad no Lionel Hutzes could be found
For MA02; MA04 & MA08, where unexpected misfortune to the incumbent could make the R line valuable. Districts 1, 5 & 7 are out of reach barring a freezer full of cash scenario, and maybe not even then  

[ Parent ]
Lynch
Has no opposition not even primary challenger kinda thought after us senate race he might faced one

[ Parent ]
Come on Massachusetts
If there's a district where the GOP has half a chance, get a name on the ballot. If you don't put in any effort, okay, but get a name on there.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Its not that easy to get on the ballot in MA
Its not like some states where you just have to file and pay a small fee. The signature requirements are quite high and the financial disclosure requirements are quite invasive. The ballot access laws in MA are basically designed to prevent candidates from running.

[ Parent ]
All in the name of transparency and democracy.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Wow
Out here in California you can be under Federal indictment. I hear they prefer it.

Seriously, the ballot access requirements are practically non-existent here. For assembly you can get on with 1,500 signatures or $935.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I've wondered
The most obvious way for Democrats to reduce their problems with the top-two primary system would be to toughen ballot access requirements. Is there any move in the California legislature to do that?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Problem?
I'm not sure what problem you're trying to solve. Lower Democratic turnout? Are you trying to boot Republicans off the ballot in competitive districts? Whatever you're contemplating won't go over here. People don't trust govt with power, they take it away. Prop. 20 passed with over 60% even though the Democratic Party opposed it and told their voters it'd hurt them. Any power grab would be opposed by the voters. I think most changes would need a Prop anyway.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
just idle thinking
It's just something that's crossed my mind so I simply wondered if it's come up at all. To be clear, though, the idea wouldn't be to boot Republicans off the ballot. It would be to keep some-dude Dems off the ballot so that the Democratic vote isn't split up so much.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
that's how I read it
I mean, a couple kind of serious Republicans against 2-4 serious and 5+ no-name Democrats in a low-primary-turnout seat is a much greater threat than 2-4 serious Dems vs 2 serious GOPers.

Working-class conservative. 22. Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada.

[ Parent ]
Some-dude Dems
Okay, I get it now. I thought you were trying to keep Republicans and Greens off the ballot. The minor parties claim now that it's too difficult to get on the ballot. In the old days they could get anyone on the ballot. Now there are criteria and they claim it's too expensive, it's not, and requires too many signatures, it doesn't.

Okay, some dude Dems. You have a few examples of this. In CA-25, the some dude Dem managed to deprive Rogers of Top Two. I'd say that when the two Democrats are combining for 32% of the vote you don't have a lot of hope of winning in November.

In CA-31, Danny Tillman isn't what I'd call some dude. To me "some dude" is someone who doesn't campaign, doesn't raise money, and who isn't real serious. Tillman wouldn't qualify with that. Tillman, and Joe Baca, could've kept the Democrats out of Top Two. Of course without Ryan Downing, Lesli Gooch might be ahead of Pete Aguilar also.

The some dudes in CA-33 couldn't keep Democrats out of Top Two. If they'd ended up with no candidates advancing it would've been due to real candidates.

California isn't a machine politics state. I could see people doing that in Illinois or New York, but anything like that would have a backlash. As I said, election law is usually determined by proposition.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
The lack of candidates running is by legal design
The ballot access laws in MA are atrocious. To run for Congress you need to file 2,000 valid signatures. To run for state house you 300 for Senate and 150 for State Rep and you need to file a financial disclosure form that basically makes public your entire financial history. Collecting that many signatures is a difficult, time consuming and expensive process that discourages people from running. After all why go to all that effort and expense for a hopeless campaign. Ballot access laws like MA discourages democracy, makes elections an insider game and takes away choice from the voters.  

[ Parent ]
Amen
When I went to the elections division in Boston to deliver signatures for my boss, they threw out - like, literally tossed into the garbage - a sheet of 20 signatures because she forgot to put down her party ID on one of the half dozen lines that asks for it. It's no wonder even a sitting senator like Jennifer Flanagan couldn't muster the signatures.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
NY has the same problem with difficult barriers to ballot access
Which is why so many Congressional seats are unopposed this year in NY.

[ Parent ]
Another internal to take with a grain of salt
nt

[ Parent ]
I'll predict it now...
Rahall wins re-election.  

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
I'll predict it now.....
Rahall goes down. The headwinds are just too strong for him to survive against a credible opponent.  

[ Parent ]
And....
I won't predict it now because I think it's too much of a tossup at the moment and could go either way.

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
LA County has 140k+ Ballots left to count
That is a huge number, and depending on how many votes are in the CA-33 district could possibly shift who gets the second slot I think.

http://www.lavote.net/GENERAL/...

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


IA-3
Who do you think is the best GOP candidate for the general election? With his past controversy, does Zaun have a shot at winning the convention?

article on Iowa conventions
[ Parent ]
Question
How popular is the anti science movement on the Democratic side in terms of things like GMOs?  I am watching two leftist a duke it out on Facebook over it and was curious if anyone has any evidence if how the Den side falls on it.

28, Republican, PA-6

Most that I've talked to
just want GMOs labeled.  I haven't seen many if any at all advocate for them being banned/not sold.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
It's huge here
But the Bay Area is ground zero for them, so that doesn't really translate.

Its worth mentioning though that its more tied into anti-corporate ideology (Monsanto is EVIL!!!) than mainstream environmentalism (which is the "watch them closely" camp rather than the ban it camp), and is heavily pushed by the Organic Lobby.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
By which I mean
The "Ban all GMOs" camp is huge in the bay area, tied to the Occupy-type individuals, and the Organic Lobby.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
The GMO issue in Massachusetts
It actually isn't an issue here that cuts along party lines. In the Legislature, I'd say about half of the Republicans and 2/3 of the Democrats support GMO labeling. It's the lawmakers with farmers in their districts that are most opposed.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
CA-31 Not Over?
http://www.sbcounty.gov/rov/el...

Aguilar now only leads Gooch by 0.35% or 179 votes. The update that happened 3 minutes ago just narrowed the gap.  

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


Shocking
Democrats usually gain after election day but Gooch gained 209 votes today. I don't know how many votes are left but if this is any indication it's not over. Why do people concede? It doesn't change anything. Ask Leticia Perez.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
5,200 ballots left countywide
But those are provisional and emergency ballots. So all of them might not count. Even if all those are valid and about a third are from CA-31, there aren't enough ballots for Gooch to catch up. If she caught up to him at the rate she did today, she'd only gain around 40 more votes, not the 183 she needs.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
CA-31 Not Over?
http://www.sbcounty.gov/rov/el...

Aguilar now only leads Gooch by 0.35% or 179 votes. The update that happened 3 minutes ago just narrowed the gap.  

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


now 183 vote lead n/t


19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
Not only that
Evans closed his statewide deficit to 875 when you had the new results.  It was a 1924 vote lead for Pérez.  Very good day for Evans so far...

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
And then you have counties like these
Santa Clara:

Yee +5948
Perez +5830
Evans +3371
Swearengin +3138


[ Parent ]
Dang it
Yuck lol

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
Evans has no hope
He can gain when Orange, Riverside, or San Diego count ballots but when Los Angeles counts their ballots he's sunk.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Damn it
If Chabbot got less votes he'd be a congressman

That said I still don't see Aguilar as being a strong candidate he's been running for congress for 4 years and is not that strong  


[ Parent ]
Evans is ahead
Because Orange County just updated their votes. By adding Orange and San Bernardino Evans is now 1,825 votes ahead. Of course none of the Democratic counties are updating.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
New results from San Francisco, Santa Clara, and Alameda
I'm sure he's way behind when I input them.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
He is down 1504 votes to be exact
That is with the information that we have seen so far and with the added totals of El Dorado and San Diego counties.

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
Actually 4,021
Yee is closer to him than he is to Perez. I think he drops to fourth.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Oh brother lol
nt

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
Calling CA-31
Likely D would make sense right now, no? It's not out of reach entirely. Mostly, but not entirely.

Working-class conservative. 22. Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada.

[ Parent ]
Why think Aguilar can seal the deal now?
He's underperformed two cycles in a row. Add in a turnout scenario akin to the 2002 Davis-Simon yawner and yep, he could make it 0 for 3  

[ Parent ]
The district is probably too Democratic
Look at the Democrats who won in California in 2012 just because of how Democratic their district was.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It was 2012
I think Ds will be fighting a tsunami of meh  

[ Parent ]
OT but you are not near Moncton I hope
Gruesome crap going on there  

[ Parent ]
This is all Ryan Downing's fault . . . .

Is he a real Republican or (perhaps) a some dude Dem plant?

Too convenient.


[ Parent ]
Real Republican
He switched from independent in 2011. He's not a resident of San Bernardino County, however. His late entry was strange and definitely helped the Democrats. It is tough for us to complain about having 3 candidates when they have four.

Of course, Lesli Gooch hasn't been registered to vote in California until, I assume, she filed her papers to run.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Well . . .

All four of the Dem candidates were legitimate and (at least at the filing deadline) three of the four (and maybe all four -- given the ethnic composition) had a non-negligible chance to make top-two.  

Downing never has a realistic chance to make top-two with Chabot and Gooch already in the race.

This situation must be disappointing for the CAGOP given how close they came to pulling off another "miracle" in CA-31.  

I guess the demographics of the district moved too far in the Dems' favor, given the fact they pulled 53% of the primary vote.  


[ Parent ]
Nonsense
Gooch was a couple hundred votes short. Downing took over 1,400 votes. If you believe that a lot of his votes came via "Alvin Greene theory" of voters randomly picking one of the 3 GOP names on the ballot because they had no idea who the 3 candidates are than you can surmise that without him Gooch probably would have picked up enough votes to make it to the runoff.

[ Parent ]
Breaking Globe MA-Gov poll: Coakley up 37-32-7-2
http://www.bostonglobe.com/new...

The 7 percent being McCormick, 2 percent Falchuk. Baker actually leads Grossman by 6 points.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


MI Amash: Mike Rogers Hosting Him Fundraiser
http://www.politico.com/story/...

so much for him possibly not supporting his re-election  


Major Typo
Mike Rogers is hosting for Amash Challenger

sorry its been long day I'm tired ha  


[ Parent ]
Tuning in now after 2 days
Wow at RRH nailing MS!

26, Male, R, NY-10

After beating PPP on FL-13
I felt like Harper needed in on the fun this time.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
And it got on RCP
Which means that other RRH polls in the future that are at least statewide will probably make it onto the RCP.

But like is said, I recommend the NY-21 primary.... ;)

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
This isn't meant as a criticism of the
RRH poll, but do any of you know why your poll overestimated Carey while Chism nailed his percentage? Did they ask the question differently in any major way?

I was expecting some degree of fall off compared with the poll result, but Chism either did something to account for that or got lucky.

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
I'm thinking it was the well known 3rd party affect
People told the pollsters they preferred Carey who in the heat of the moment (taking the poll) had issues with both candidates with a real chance of winning.
When they got into the voting booth, their heads prevailed and they chose who in their mind was the lesser of the two evils between the two with a real shot.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
California update
Evans has taken a 1143 vote lead over Pérez who is back in third place and Yee is back in 4th.

It should be interesting to see who will win the second slot, it is almost certain to be a Democrat.  However, both Yee and Pérez are contenders, she too has closed the gap against Pérez.  Will it be enough?  That is the question...

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


The SoS website
I'm not sure why I was off because they seem to have all the updates except Riverside. If you include that, it's 1,405. I think Perez stays ahead of Yee because LA County has yet to provide an update. Perez has been helped by the LA collar counties and she's been helped by the Bay area counties.But LA County is just so huge that he'll beat her and Evans.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Tories hold Newark.
As expected.

Chris Christie, 1980
Interesting.

http://instagram.com/p/o4MfV8z...

27, R, PA-07.


Looks like
He is friends with Richard Simmons (far right, his hair what stands out), I didn't know Christie was that short lol.

19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


[ Parent ]
Yah. He's about 5'8"- 5'9" (my height).
I figured this out when I met him on a week ago. He's also lost a lot of weight, and it shows.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
MS-1; Nunnelee to have brain surgery
@EWagsterPettus: US Rep. #Nunnelee, R-Miss., says he will have brain surgery Monday (from @AP) http://t.co/IpZAjNMz4a

I wonder if this may be his last term? Cong. Reichert had brain surgery a few years ago, so perhaps he will continue.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Again, it tends to be a coin flip
Inhofe vs. Coburn - about half keep going after health or personal difficulties, and half decide to retire. I would be unsurprised either way.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
NY 13 Article
http://7online.com/politics/in...

"Nearly 40 percent of residents in the district rely on some form of safety net: from food stamps to social security to shelters. More than 14 percent are unemployed. "


Its also #20 on the income inequality list
there are a lot of 1% in NY-13 as well. This $4.5 million 2,000 sq ft apartment is also in the district:
http://streeteasy.com/sale/107...

[ Parent ]
Bowe Bergdahl furor adds to Dem angst about Barack Obama
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/...

Interesting to read Jeanne Shaheen's changing statements. Democrats, at this point, shouldn't comment on anything going on with the administration. They should wait to see how the reaction plays out before deciding whether, "I let the President know when I agree with him and when I don't."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


NH-State House Projected to Flip back to the GOP?
http://www.wmur.com/political-...

Some may think it is crazy, but it actually makes sense when you read the article.  This would be good if we want to help write the narrative some if Hassan does try to run for Senate against Ayotte...


19 | Moderate Republican

PA-5


NH-SEN
I doubt Hassan runs against Ayotte.  I think Lynch is more likely between the two of them (Although I'm not so sure Lynch will run either).


33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I think so too
I get why liberal cheerleaders want her to run, but she will have served just 4 years as governor and would be risking her political career for a race that will be challenging to say the least. She can afford to wait Shaheen out or perhaps run against Brown should he somehow pull it off this cycle.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Lynch is even less likely to run
Hassan won't do it unless 2016 is looking like a bloodbath for the GOP. Even then, she may opt to continue on as governor (Shaheen tried to make the jump in 2002, but that was the exception, not the rule, about governors leaving early to run for the Senate). I think Kuster is the most likely candidate.

[ Parent ]
I agree that Lynch won't run either
He had an easy path in 2010 that he passed on, so I doubt he will go for a challenging political path now. I really doubt Kuster runs. She's going to have it tough just to hang on to her seat. My guess is that a state legislator runs.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
That's why Kuster is likely to run
That seat is getting tougher for us but she's still very beatable in a Republican year. If you're in the Senate, you have a 2 in 3 chance of avoiding a particularly bad year (for example, how happy is Debbie Stabenow to have avoided 2010?). Ayotte vs. a state legislator is bordering on Likely R; the districts are so small that you start with vitually zero name rec.

[ Parent ]
In 2016, her House seat will probably be safer for her
Because if the GOP lose it this cycle and with Clinton on top of the ticket, NH-2 may be off the table for us, except for a wave cycle. That's why I don't see her doing it. And obviously I explained why Hassan won't do it. But, a state senator represents about 1/20th of the state, so its not that far off. Now, if a state House member runs, then you are right.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I'm really out of it
What are the expectations for CA controller?
At this moment both Rs are still on top.

26, Male, R, NY-10

And CA-31
Latest update has the gap cut by more than half. R within 183 votes of 2nd spot.

Discussed already?

26, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Ok, this I just saw upthread


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
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