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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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Breaking News: We Have a Barn Burner in SD-12 Between Kim Simac and Jim Holperin

by: Right Reformer

Mon Aug 15, 2011 at 07:08:18 AM EDT


As part of our ongoing efforts to provide you with original political content, Red Racing Horses has commissioned a poll of the 8/16 Recall Election between Kim Simac (R) and Jim Holperin (D).

The race is extremely close, with Holperin holding a 51-49 lead with an MOE of +- 2.62. This is going down to the wire folks.

The poll was conducted by We Ask America over the weekend, and shows the race too close to call, but an electorate very unsatisfied with the President.

Here are the results:

Sample Size:  1384

MOE:  +/- 2.62

Political Breakdown:  28-28-43 (Democrats, Republicans, Independents)

Obama Approval/Disapproval: 41-56

SD-12: 

Jim Holperin -- 51

Kim Simac -- 49

The crosstabs reveal a huge gender gap between the candidates:

Amongst Men:

Holperin -- 43

Simac -- 57

Amongst Women:

Holperin -- 58

Simac -- 42

Simac is winning Independents 52-48, which is very good for her, considering they make up 43% of voters. But Holperin is winning 92% of Democrats, compared to Simac's 88%. That difference appears to be the margin in the race.

Tomorrow, Simac needs to hold strong with independents, and has the difficult job of appealing to the Republican base and more moderate women in order to take down Jim Holperin. We've been leaked a few other internal polls with Simac up, and that is certainly a possibility with the MOE of this poll. But regardless, it's going to be a close race on Tuesday.

Look at the overall Obama approval number of 41-56. That includes a 35-60 rating amongst Independents. Simac might be smart to link Holperin with Obama in an effort to nationalize the race a little. Obama's stunningly low approval certainly isn't going to help Holperin in the race.

Additionally, we encourage you to finish Project 4 before midnight on Tuesday, and raise your hand to contribute your money, time, and energy to the Simac campaign.

Right Reformer :: Breaking News: We Have a Barn Burner in SD-12 Between Kim Simac and Jim Holperin
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Polling
What was We Ask Americas record last year?  Are they partisan?  Those are some horrible numbers for Obama here.  It will be interesting to compare these numbers to PPPs later.  Still its great you guys are getting into polling!


33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

We Ask America
they are a republican leaning pollster...they did well in 2010 especially in the good prediction of some house races...for example in Illinois they were the only to give a lead to Bob Dold in the final days of the campaign...

now the problem is that PPP wil give a double digit lead to Holperin and actually I really dont know what to think...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative


[ Parent ]
Here's We Ask America in Illinois compared to the election results
WAA: Walsh 49%   Election: Walsh 49%
    Bean 46%              Bean 48%

    Dold 54%              Dold 51%
    Seals 46%             Seals 49%

    Kinzinger 55%         Kinzinger 57%
    Halvorson 45%        Halvorson 43%

    Hultgren 50%         Hultgren 51%
    Foster 45%            Foster 45%

    Schilling 52%         Schilling 53%
    Hare 44%              Hare 43%

So in Illinois, they were excellent.

MA-08  


[ Parent ]
Obama was at 39% approval among adults in Gallup over the weekend
In this poll he is at 41% approval

SD12 is a seat that is more republican then the state as a whole.  Something tells me that Johnson/Walker won 55% in this seat while Obama lost this seat.

So the numbers look good to me.  


[ Parent ]
District is
53% Obama, 54% Bush.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
There you have it. The seat is a bit more GOP then the nation as a whole.
Obama did great in WI as McCain literally was against cheese.  Actually McCain was against the Dairy compact which props up the price of milk and cheese.  Either this seat was about even for Obama and several % more R then Bush 2004.  

So if Obama is at 39% approval nationally its fairly rational to see him at 41% in this SD.  


[ Parent ]
In 2008
It was EVEN.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
WAA is one of my favorite pollsters.
I believed their 2010 IL-08 poll when few others did, and it gave me a chance to laugh at Cook, Rothenberg, Roll Call, et al. when they were wrong and I was right.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Walker Approval
Was that polled?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Nope
Just Obama. If I had to guess I would say it's on positive ground in this district.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Not to criticize
But WAA only gives you so few questions to ask? Or you just asked a few questions to get a better response from more people.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Poll Cost
I am going to assume the more you ask the more it costs?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Yes
Seeing as this site isn't exactly a cash cow, we decided to limit the number of questions for financial reasons.

[ Parent ]
PayPal Donation Box
Let's add one. That may be a good idea. I'm sure some philanthropic people may want to throw us a few dollars. Some are better than none.

[ Parent ]
Aren't we all Koch Brothers Astroturf?
Let's just get them to do it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Strike 2!
Man, your yiddishe sense of humor...  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
How
does the partisan breakdown in the poll correspond to how the district turned out in 2008 and 2010?

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

Thanks
So Holperin will probably pull it out.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Not necessarily
Democrats are not energized. Republicans are. It will come down to turnout. Simac is up big with indys. This poll is within the MoE. We can and will still win. I know of three internals with Simac up more than 4.

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Are those
GOP internal polls? Elaborate

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
So
We have 3 independent polls that show Holperin up by whatever margin and I'm supposed to believe supposed internals?  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
WI
Good point.

Also are they internals or informed internals?  Big difference.

Regardless I think this will be close.

With this info of Simiac being up in internals, I will revist my prediction down to 52-48% Holperin.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Often a campaign weights its own internals, then leaks
Remember the Feingold polls showing him down by 2 with a few weeks to go last cycle? A friend in the campaign admitted to me that they were weighting them for what they expected (hoped) party ID would be in the election. Then they leaked that to the media.

I'm not saying Simac is doing the same thing here, or trying to deceive anyone. But varying internal polls often occur from a campaign's polling style and weighting. That can be entirely innocent. But then it gets leaked.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Those polls
Are the ones that are supposed to be leaked. Campaigns want and need accurate polls so internals that remain internal are often the most accurate polls out there.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
It didn't stay internal...
Lol

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
This
Wasn't deliberately leaked to the media, so my thing here is that I don't know how high in the campaign this leaker is, it makes a big difference.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Weighting can be in search of accuracy
If you walk away with a poll that's 60% women you can weight the poll to recast the numbers. But you also risk inputting error into the poll.

I don't know the identity of the Simac leaker or their goal. It's possible the poll is entirely unweighted and unintentionally leaked.

Frankly, I feel pretty good about our numbers, given that we're the middle ground between PPP and the campaign.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
3?
We have one that has it within the MoE. We have one that way over samples Democrats. I don't know what the other public poll is. Internals are typically more accurate. And to answer ZR2X4, yes, GOP/Simac internals. We can and will still win this race, but we need to GOTV. E-mail Simac's field director, Patrick.Testin@gmail.com to  find out how to make calls.

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Inside Michigan Politics
Last week.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
That was
a totally sketch poll. No crosstabs, just showed the results.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
The same polls that had King up double digits and Shilling up 14.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I believe that
Look at the facts and analyze the race.

Walker won 57%
Prosser won 55%

GOP turned out 20,000 in primary (very high)

In the last recall races, the average turnout for GOP candidates was 29,000.

It's not that hard to believe Simac is tied or ahead.

Walker/Martinez 2016


[ Parent ]
That's What I'm Going Off Too
It's hard to see how Prosser wins 55% here, and yet Holperin swings that 10% in his direction! I can see him 'eking' out a win - but I sure as heck don't see Holperin winning in a 'blow out' like PPP is showing...  

[ Parent ]
Hansen
Did win 66-34 in a Prosser district. Though with depressed GOP turnout and a wacko Republican candidate.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I really wish we could
have done a do-over there.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
This is totally different scenario
VanderLeest had 2,000k on hand, no party backing, and no outside influence on his behalf. Let's be honest here.....

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
And he was a criminal


Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
We Ask America
Duffy 46.0%
Lassa 38.6%

Actual
Duffy 52%
Lassa 45%

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


They
Do have a sterling record given how new they are, they only blew IL-GOV which all but Suffolk got wrong.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
do you have their Illinois governor numbers?


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Polling
I understand if you guys can't talk about it, but when you went to do this poll did you go around and see price points for different pollsters?   Or did you just go with WAA?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Holperin
Isn't new to recalls, he survived one in 1990 when he was in the assembly. http://whbl.com/news/articles/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Politico
Picked it up http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

RRH Is Not a "Conservative" Site
It's a "Republican-oriented" site. Someone needs to E-mail Catanese and get him to correct that.  

[ Parent ]
RRH
Seeing as how the logo says Right perspective and not Republican, I can see why he put that.  I think "Right leaning" might be more apt as most posters are Republicans, but with a mix of Libertarians and Liberals/Democrats.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
That's how I wrote it
In my pitch email this morning.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Seems like RedStaters don't like us
Comment from the Catanese post:

"Have you ever rad that site? Conservative? It's a mix of establishment republicans, libertarians, liberals with a few RINO appeasing conservatives wondering around. They hate strong conservatives like Palin and Bachmann and always support RINOS and the establishment If they are showing the race this close its a very good sign for Simac."

Those gosh darn RINO's ruining everything.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Wow
That's good...  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I didn't know I hated "strong conservatives"
Good to know. I don't hate Palin or Bachmann, but I'm not sure what makes them "strong conservatives." I like Paul Ryan a lot. He wrote the budget all the "strong conservatives" voted for. I like Tom Coburn. He's about as anti-establishment as you can get. I've been a Republican since age 6. That's a lot of RINOness.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
MY definition of RINO
is Arne Carlson. Other than that, I see Snowe/Collins/Brown as center-right republicans who are highly valuable to the party.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Definition of RINO or establishment Republican
Anyone who writes or says anything you disagree with.

That's how they define it. Once you call someone a RINO you automatically win the argument. Of course some of these people were a registered Democrat until they were 30.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
That pisses me off.
I'm just as conservative as any of those idiots, but there's a difference between a minority and majority. I would lge to have 250 strong Conservatives, and no moderates/liberals. However, I also know you cannot run 100% conservatives everywhere. Especially the NE and expect to win. You have to run people who can win, if you want to be in power.

I love Bachmann and Palin and they deserve a place in our party. Nevertheless I see no way for them to win a national election with some of their comments. That doesn't mean I'm a freaken RINO.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


[ Parent ]
Uh just ignore
just a random poster

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I posted the comment
since it shows what other people think about us. We should be proud of this viewpoint from the anonymous comment, it shows we are pragmatic and actually know how to be effective rather than "100% of everything 100% of the time" philosophy.

That and it shows we as a blog are getting more exposure.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
love, not lge. idk what lge is.


22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Thing is...
Is the comment directed at the mods/front page posters, or everyone that comments?  What if I never clicked on a "Comments" link and just read the stories? (which is how a site should be judged;  we don't use the comments on washingtonpost.com to determine the lean of the site/paper).  If I didn't click through, I would be seeing articles about going all out for Huey, Simac, all other Wisconsin Senate Republicans, support for Walker, Kasich, Corbett, Christie, Haley, (maybe not Rick Scott)...

Well, that's what you get for overanalyzing one anonymous comment.  Pretty pointless.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I know.
I just needed to vent a little haha  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
We saw the comment too
We all just laughed it off.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
We as in...
you and Catanese?

btw kudos to your creative mourning of your devotion to the Pawlenty campaign in your sig. haha

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
+1


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
No
The FPers. And thanks. I can't believe I never thought of T-Pawtier until today  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
It sounds like
T-Pawtier is what a Kennedy would say instead of Tea Partier.

I wonder of BostonPatriot or Shamlet have a Bostonian accent such that they pahk their cah in their garahge.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
You can find great chowdah at Quincy Mahket
Just sayin'.....

I definitely have the accent, more on certain words than others, And "pahty" is definitely one of them. After a few years of living in Boston itself though, I've discovered that there's a difference between a Boston accent and a Worcester accent, which I have.

Shamlet is a Marylander up her for school, so I'm guessing he pronounces the letter r.


[ Parent ]
I had a shirt made
That I wore for Straw Poll prep (and the Greek rally) on Friday.

"Pawlenty 2012: It's going to be a T-Paw-Arty all the way to the White House."

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Gotta say
that's not a bad characterization. We have all 4 of those groups. And I don't think we have a single regular poster that would have supported Christine O'Donnell. RedState is the place for hemming and hawing about purity. We mostly just like to win elections so Republicans and Conservatives can, y'know, actually do stuff.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
What's Purity?
Christine O'Donnell frivolously sued a conservative think tank. Anyone who does that is a RINO in my book.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I used to be a RedState minded guy...
but when angle, o'donnell, and miller lost and I discovered RRH I became a lot more pragmatic and fight my more "principled" friends and family.

What's the difference between establishment R's and "RINO appeasing conservatives" anyway?

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
I confess
Initially i did support Christine O'donnell. I now regret that wholeheartedly. Though I will say that the problem with these candidates like Angle, Buck, Miller, ect was not their conservatism; it was their campaigning. As far as the senate goes, running 100 DeMints is just as bad as running 100 Mike Castles. I will now follow the Buckley rule religiously.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
O'Donnell
I joined RedState for the sole purpose of blowing the warning sirens on O'Donnell. I nearly got banned. I could never understand the logic (or lack thereof) behind her support.

[ Parent ]
There is logic
I supported Castle, of course, and gave money to the campaign.

But the O'Donnell supporters can definitely say that by proving they were willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces, they have struck fear into the heart of moderate Republicans for the future.

Lugar, Hatch, and to a lesser extent, Snowe, will face primary challenges. In 2014 you'll see Graham face a strong challenge or retire. The logic of the O'Donnell supporters is that candidates now know that they mean business when they threaten primary challenges, even if it ends up costing them elections.

Not my preferred way of doing things, but I see the logic.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Its the time old question
I just wish that most republicans could stick to the platform whenever possible.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
That guy's comment about RRH

This... is... AWESOME! It means that we're actually pretty well known. I wonder how many lurkers we have around here who just don't comment.

I'll say it again; we need a delurking thread. So what if it copies SSP? Imitation is the highest form of flattery.



[ Parent ]
Patience, RockRibbed
SSP did have a very successful delurking thread, but that was at the end of a 7-year run. We definitely have some lurkers, but since we've only been around 7 months it wouldn't be nearly that many!

Maybe we could do one for our first anniversary in January though....


[ Parent ]
Though
I assume that RRH after 7 months is as about as big as SSP was after 7 years before moving to Kos. Just look at the traffic numbers, we're headed for 3000+ unique visits today with about 12,000 hits.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Saturday and Sunday
We beat DKE in page views. Today we have a lot more unique visitors than normal because we were linked on Red State, Pwire, Slate, Politico, WisPolitics, other locals blogs and TV stations.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
WAOW


Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Yea
I think we have a decent crosssection of the Republican Party plus some indies and Democrats.  We might not have anyone who supports the O'Donnell types, but we probably got every other Republican group on here.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PPP/Kos numbers
SD-22:
Robert Wirch (D-inc): 55 Jonathan Steitz (R): 42 Undecided: 3 (MoE: ±2.9%)
SD-12:
Jim Holperin (D-inc): 55 Kim Simac (R): 41 Undecided: 4 (MoE: ±2.6%)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Weird that Wirch has a smaller lead.

25, Male, R, NY-10


PPP
Wirch's numbers look just about right, Holperin's numbers look a little inflated.

We Ask America is more on target with where I thought the race was, It will be very interesting to see who is right.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Intersting
In SD-12, PPP has an Obama +7 electorate but Walker only + 2. A little weird.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Walker
Walker won the district with 57% yet the crosstabs show Walker only holding a two point edge...

Tom Barrett 638 46%
Scott Walker 665 48%

Walker/Martinez 2016


[ Parent ]
Yeah, This PPP Poll Looks Like Junk To Me (nt)


[ Parent ]
Also
A 35-26! Dem electorate.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Wow
They STILL think Democrats in WI are more energized than Republicans. Did they not pay attention to the SC election and last weeks elections? No way the electorate in Holperin's district is as Democratic as 2008!

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
That's fine
but it's not like PPP suddenly changed their methodology in polling Holperin.  When you say they STILL think Democrats in Wisconsin are more energized, in what context are you saying that in because the four polls they released prior to the recalls last week don't suggest they ever thought Democrats were more energized.  Their results were pretty much on point.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't add up
Kos:

Democrat 485 35%
Republican 360 26%
Independent/Other 540 39%

28-28-43 (Democrats, Republicans, Independents)

Seems to me they oversampled democrats. Don't republicans hold an edge here registration wise?

Walker/Martinez 2016


Could possibly be
Fired up Dems and depressed Republicans.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
WI
WAA oversampled Indies as well, neither poll has a perfect composition.

I guess the best expecation would be somewhere in the middle, which is still a Holperin win.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I put
more stock in WAA's numbers, they match other internal polls. No way Holperin is leading 55-41. They are polling with a 2008 electorate.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
WI
PPP has a sterling record this Recall season, so I am inclinded to believe them, BUT you are right his lead does seem off.  Since WAA has Holperin leading too, My prediction is 53-47%

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Guess
we will see soon enough!  

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Remember
Neither poll is wrong or right at this point.  People haven't even been voting in person yet.  This is a small district where GOTV can swing it either way.  Gotta get your voters to the polls tomorrow.  In a small, swing district like this, where neither side has the built in advantage (like Hahn did last month), whoever does GOTV better will win.

Political Wire
Also picked this up http://politicalwire.com/archi...

I usually don't doubt PPP's likely voters polls, but Ben Smith also says that both sides say that the race is very tight. He's not the first one, though I now expect Holperin to pull it out.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Hearing
GOP has a great ground game and big ad buys by outside groups. For Holperin to win, he has to outperform Kloppenburg's performance (Prosser won 55%). I think Simac pulls it out in the end.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
As Long As GOP Voters Show Up...
...We should win.

It really comes down to: who cares less? - Dems that have no shot at retaking the State Senate regardless of what happens? Or Republicans who will hold the majority in the State Senate regardless of the outcome?

I'm just hoping that, here, Republicans are itching to "send a message" more than Dems.  


[ Parent ]
WaPo
Read http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Also, laugh at the part that they insist on not posting about automated polls. The MSM is still stuck in the '60s.
The rest is informative.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


PPP/WAA/YouGov
Were more accurate last year than Ipsos/CNN that use live interviews.
Though the absolute best pollster last year Suffolk is live and worst last year Rasmussen is automated.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Awesome that you guys commissioned a poll.
One uestion: Did WWA not FIND undecided voters or did they exclude them?

I hope to be an operational pollster in time for the September 13 specials.


You will of course
Post the first few polls on here for free to prove your accuracy.... Lol  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It is the only way
You can prove how accurate your polls are.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Agreed. Nobody pays for an untested pollster.


[ Parent ]
Get readt for the
"untested Germany-based pollster" in articles of MSM that will be nice to mention your polls. Outside of here nobody knows you.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
But we will vouch for you
We know you and are willing to go to bat for you until you establish yourself.

Just make sure they're good numbers!

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Apart from you guys, Nate Silver knows me and my partner too.
That should be okay credentials in the online media.  

[ Parent ]
Good luck!
I'm sure David will also vouch for you.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
It was our choice
And they recommended excluding an undecided option since they were already screening for likely voters and it's so close to election day.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
They're basically right in
that excluding undecided voters is the most accurate way to gauge the state of a race and they seem to be the only pollster who gets that. I still would have included the option because if you want to you can (and should) calculate and report the w/o undecided numbers from that.

But yeah, excluding undecideds is absolutely sound.


[ Parent ]
With such a polarized electorate
I doubt there would have been more than 1% undecided just 3 days before the election anyway.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
How come
You didn't post a link to crosstabs pdf. I see that WisPolitics requested and got it, they posted it http://www.wispolitics.com/100...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Questions And Requests
You dont need to question why and make requests so much. Thanks

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Accepted


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Search




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