As part of our ongoing efforts to provide you with original political content, Red Racing Horses has commissioned a poll of the 8/16 Recall Election between Kim Simac (R) and Jim Holperin (D).
The race is extremely close, with Holperin holding a 51-49 lead with an MOE of +- 2.62. This is going down to the wire folks.
The poll was conducted by We Ask America over the weekend, and shows the race too close to call, but an electorate very unsatisfied with the President.
Here are the results:
Sample Size: 1384
MOE: +/- 2.62
Political Breakdown: 28-28-43 (Democrats, Republicans, Independents)
Obama Approval/Disapproval: 41-56
Jim Holperin -- 51
Kim Simac -- 49
The crosstabs reveal a huge gender gap between the candidates:
Holperin -- 43
Simac -- 57
Holperin -- 58
Simac -- 42
Simac is winning Independents 52-48, which is very good for her, considering they make up 43% of voters. But Holperin is winning 92% of Democrats, compared to Simac's 88%. That difference appears to be the margin in the race.
Tomorrow, Simac needs to hold strong with independents, and has the difficult job of appealing to the Republican base and more moderate women in order to take down Jim Holperin. We've been leaked a few other internal polls with Simac up, and that is certainly a possibility with the MOE of this poll. But regardless, it's going to be a close race on Tuesday.
Look at the overall Obama approval number of 41-56. That includes a 35-60 rating amongst Independents. Simac might be smart to link Holperin with Obama in an effort to nationalize the race a little. Obama's stunningly low approval certainly isn't going to help Holperin in the race.
Additionally, we encourage you to finish Project 4 before midnight on Tuesday, and raise your hand to contribute your money, time, and energy to the Simac campaign.