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Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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Wisconsin Democratic Recall Preview and Baselines

by: James_Nola

Mon Aug 15, 2011 at 16:06:22 PM EDT


Tomorrow is another big day in Wisconsin, with two Democratic Senators facing recall. Sen. Robert Wirch, in SD-22, looks relatively safe in his Democratic leaning district, but Sen. Jim Holperin, in SD-12, is a different story. RRH commissioned a poll that showed Holperin narrowly leading Republican Kim Simac, 51-49, within the margin of error. I have heard of several GOP/Simac internals where she leads by 4+ points. Below the fold, we will analyze each race.  
James_Nola :: Wisconsin Democratic Recall Preview and Baselines
SD-12
53% Obama
57% Walker
55% Prosser
Sen. Jim Holperin vs Republican Kim Simac
Photobucket
SD-12 2008 Presidential Election
SD-12 is a Republican leaning district in the North Woods. Kim Simac, who led the effort to recall Holperin, is the Republican nominee. This is the premier race of tomorrow. Sen. Jim Holperin, who holds the distinction of being the only lawmaker in America to be recalled twice, has massively outspent Simac. Despite this, the race is a toss-up, with internals on both sides showing it as a tight race, and our own poll showing Holperin up 51-49. Republican groups and unions have made this a battleground this week, pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into this race for just one week. If we win, it will deliver yet another blow to the unions, after the Supreme Court race and their failure to win a majority last week. This race will come down to GOTV. To help you along tomorrow night, here are baselines for how Simac should be doing in each county in the district to have a narrow win:
2008 President:
Forest County: 47% Simac
Florence County: 59% Simac
Langlade County: 53% Simac
Lincoln County: 46% Simac
Marathon County: 50% Simac
Marinette County: 53% Simac
Menominee County: 17% Simac*
Oconto County: 49% Simac
Oneida County: 47% Simac
Shawano County: 45% Simac
Vilas County: 55% Simac**

2010 Gov:


Forest County: 45% Simac
Florence County: 58%  Simac
Langlade County: 54% Simac
Lincoln County: 48% Simac
Marathon County: 58% Simac
Marinette County: 53% Simac
Menominee County: 15% Simac**
Oconto County: 50% Simac
Oneida County: 48% Simac
Shawano County: 48% Simac
Vilas County: 56% Simac**

2011 SC:


Forest County: 51% Simac
Florence County: 58%  Simac
Langlade County: 53% Simac
Lincoln County: 45% Simac
Marathon County: 56% Simac
Marinette County: 53% Simac
Menominee County: 32% Simac*
Oconto County: 53% Simac
Oneida County: 47% Simac
Shawano County: 51% Simac
Vilas County: 55% Simac**

*This county is subject to massive swings and accounted for less than 1,000 votes in 2008. It is an Indian Reservation. Apparently Indians don't like KloJo as much as Obama and Barrett.
**This county is home to both Simac and Holperin. Holperin has been elected here since the 1980's.
The different races all offer different turn-out models. The Presidential one is probably optimistic for Holperin, since there was a more Democratic than usual electorate and because of McCain's weakness in the Midwest. The 2010 one is probably optimistic for Simac, as the electorate was slightly more Republican than normal. The Supreme Court Number is probably best, as it most closely reflects the current mood in Wisconsin.

SD-22
57% Obama
53% Walker
51% Kloppenburg
Sen. Bob Wirch vs Republican Jonathan Steitz
Photobucket
2008 Presidential Election in SD-22
This race is not expected to be close. After narrowly beating now-RNC Chair Reince Priebus for his seat in 2004, Wirch was easily re-elected in 2008. Republican outside groups have ignored this race, and Steitz has not raised enough to be competitive with Wirch and the unions on the air. This district is based in heavily Democratic Kenosha, and, if Steitz were to win, he would face a tough re-election, as this district has become a Kenosha-Racine vote-sink in redistricting. Any path to victory here would run through Racine County. This district contains Burlington Township in Racine County. Burlington gave McCain 55% of the vote in 2008, and Steitz would have to get well over 60% there to win, along with holding Wirch to less than 51% in Kenosha. Steitz is a strong candidate with a bright future ahead of him, but this is just a very tough district.  

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Thanks for the awesome job!
Though you might want to correct yourself on the turnout, no race last week had presidential level turnout, the highest turnout was in Cowles' district where it surpassed turnout in the Governor's race. The higher the turnout, likely better for Simac.

If it won't be too hard for you, it would be nice to have 2 additional based baselines based on the Prosser and Walker races. (It would also give us an opportunity to be optimistic or pessimistic tomorrow night based on the different baselines.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


I will
If I can find precinct results. I will add those tonight if I find it.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Thanks a ton!
You might want to ask jeffmd, he had numbers on DKE's baseline post on last week's recalls http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I got it
I will have it up later. There aren't too many split counties, so it may not take me that long  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Thanks to the polling
RRH is headed for its best number of unique visitors per day so far.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Correction - Re: SD-22
The diary states:

This district is based in heavily Democratic Kenosha, and, if Steitz were to win, he would face a tough re-election, as this district has become a Kenosha-Racine vote-sink in redistricting.

If you'll notice, the current SD-22 contains a lot of territory outside Kenosha. While the "new" SD-22 is drawn into just Kenosha and Racine, it's paired with a suburban district made up of these "outside" areas that will be GOP-leaning. Thus, if Steitz wins, there will be nothing to prevent him from running in that district (though I don't know if that would force him to run against another currently sitting GOP incumbent there...) rather than in the "new" SD-22.  


Steitz
would be forced to run against Van Wanggaard.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
On a side note
Wisconsin counties and Wisconsin senators have the most awesome names in the country.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Except for the people who always have to write them out ;)  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Vilas County
went 50/50 Prosser/Klop. It's not essential for Simac to win.

NY-3

He just posted
That he'll have up later additional baselines based on that race.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Actually
I'm wrong. It went 4,210- 2,821 Prosser.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
Depends on turnout
This is based on the electorate being the same as 2008, meaning it is probably a little pessimistic for Simac. Tonight I will have it based on the SC race and the Gov race. Turnout will probably be most like the SC race, since the Gov race will under sample Dems.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Obama/Prosser
One of them really overperformed here. In Shawano County, Obama got 57% in this district. Prosser got 56%.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Menomonee County
only casts around 400 votes, make note when you see 17% simac.

NY-3

Thank you
That is good to keep in mind.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Its an Indian reservation county
and yes its strong D


[ Parent ]
The whole county is an Indian reservation
With the exception of a couple of small pockets of privately held land that was there before the reservation was formed.

Menominee County has about 4,200 people, and about 90% are Native.

Democrats and tribal leaders will work to turn out every single vote possible there. Obama won 88% and both Feingold and Barrett took 78% even in a year like 2010.

Simac will be lucky if she gets 15% in the county.  


[ Parent ]
Very low turnout
At least in the SC race.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Here's the supreme court numbers
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

NY-3

The
left column is prosser, right is kloppenburg.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
Thanks!


Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Missing some counties


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
That's all the whole counties


Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure
that's it. Unless you can tell me what i'm missing....

NY-3

[ Parent ]
Not whole counties
Check on top of this post.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Those numbers (whole counties)
are going to make or break the election. The outlining precincts are tedious to pick out and really don't make much of a difference imo.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
Marinette county
The furthest one to the right on the map is pretty big. I need to recalculate the results because I got 73% Prosser for the part in this district and I don't think that can be right.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Prosser
Got 55% in the whole county.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I must have accidentally hit "X" instead of "+" one time, because now I'm getting 58% Prosser and a 3k lower vote total.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Keep an eye out
for Oneida and Lincoln County. Those are the two "swing" counties that have a large percentage of the vote. If Kim is under 50% in both of those, she probably doesn't have a chance.

NY-3

Not Sure About That...
Prosser won 55% in all of SD-12, and yet he won only 52% in Oneida, and just barely squeaked out a 50% "win" in Lincoln.

Based on that, I bet Simac could get somewhat under 50% in Oneida and Lincoln (say, 48% and 46%) and still eke out a win.

Now if Simac is below 45% in both counties, then I think you'd have a point...  


[ Parent ]
Holperin
tied his opponent 50/50 in both those districts, and still won. Simac is going to have to get a healthy margin in many of these counties otherwise she may be edged out like the result in 2008.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
Here's the
2008 results for the district (the actual senate race)

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

NY-3


Welcome new member!
You provide great info.
Please put your age and CD in your signature.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
and affiliation
I think age and gender are not as necessary, but still helpful should the user decide to include that.  

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
The commenter formerly known as TheCallofDuty


[ Parent ]
Yes, welcome!
And while many of our members do provide that info in their signature, don't feel any pressure since it's not a rule or even a suggestion. I for one like the anonymity (although I had my age and CD at SSP so anyone who really wanted to know you just look it up there....)

[ Parent ]
I also don't do it
But wonder how many people have already tracked me down from scattered clues. If you know who I am don't out me!

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
You wrote many times
And go find me, I'm one of 712,000 people in NY-8...  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Thank you!
And I just did. Do you mind deleting the comment of the chart (Senate 2008) this reply started on? I have a larger one with more information but I don't want to spam the page.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
I'm not a mod
But I doubt anyone has a problem with you posting another pic.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Go ahead and post it. If we delete the parent comment, every comment under it is deleted

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
great info
Florence: 43%
Forest: 56%
Langlade: 46%
Lincoln: 49%
Marathon: 49%
Marinette: 48%
Menominee: 86%
Oconto: 54%
Oneida: 54%
Shawano: 56%
Vilas: 50%

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Percentages or baselines?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
those are the percentages from the 2008 race
Holperin got 51% in 2008, so it acts as a rough baseline.

If he's making those, he's in good shape. If he's down a couple points, he is not.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Forest County Change
It should be 47% Simac, not 61%. I changed it in the diary.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Hey, James...
...If it's not too much work, can you post the needed Simac 'baselines' assuming Vilas co. splits 50/50? Thanks.  

[ Parent ]
November, April baselines
2010 Gov:

Forest County: 45% Simac
Florence County: 58%  Simac
Langlade County: 54% Simac
Lincoln County: 48% Simac
Marathon County: 58% Simac
Marinette County: 53% Simac
Menominee County: 15% Simac
Oconto County: 50% Simac
Oneida County: 48% Simac
Shawano County: 48% Simac
Vilas County: 56% Simac*

2011 SC:


Forest County: 51% Simac
Florence County: 58%  Simac
Langlade County: 53% Simac
Lincoln County: 45% Simac
Marathon County: 56% Simac
Marinette County: 53% Simac
Menominee County: 32% Simac
Oconto County: 53% Simac
Oneida County: 47% Simac
Shawano County: 51% Simac
Vilas County: 55% Simac*

Added up top too  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Put it on top
It's gonna get lost here.
Gonna be a lot of confusion tomorrow if it's tight...  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Up already
Thanks.

Going to be possible to be optimistic and pessimistic tomorrow...  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Chart
Will be great to have on top of tomorrow's results thread.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

No mention of PPP?
They did poll these races too

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Everyone's aware of that.
nt

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I assumed as much
.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Spin
Republican spin if GOP wins

0 races: Well, we really won last week. We have the majority. This didn't matter.

1 race: Not only did you get beat down last week, but the people want to punish you for fleeing.

2 races: Give up. Disband the union. Scott Walker is a hero.

Any Democrat want to give Democratic spin?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I will give it a shot
But, I would want clearance from a mod before I say anything about what I think the spin will be

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Ok just keep it clean
nt

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Dem spin
0 seats (Holperin by 10+): We came THIS close to taking back the senate in an unprecedented recall effort, and none of our senators were even close to losing. And Kim Simac is (I will  leave this blank, but you get the idea)

0 seats (Holperin by less than 1-). We came THIS close to taking the senate in an unprecidented recall effort, and despite a strong challenge to one of our incumbents in a Republican district, we defended our own while taking out 2 of theirs

1 seat: We have more senators than we did a month ago, and it's all thanks to Scott Walker and his toxic policies

2 seats: We are where we started, nothing has changed from 2 weeks ago.

Personally, the last 2 would leave quite a sour taste in my mouth. The first 2 would probably resonate more when looking at it in spreadsheet format.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
If the Dems lose wirch's seat I want an apology
From every single Wisconsin democrat. A personal apology for making everyone spend all this time and money. Sent to my house on formal stationary.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Not even gonna ask for 1st born son
You sir are a gracious winner.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
The commenter formerly known as TheCallofDuty


[ Parent ]
Union members should ask for an apology
It's their money (in dues) that's getting spent! And not every dues-paying union member is a liberal Democrat!

[ Parent ]
Turnout
High turnout in 52% McCain Arbor Vitae in Vilas County.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


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