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Georgia Runoff Liveblog #2

by: BostonPatriot

Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 20:46:40 PM EDT

9:50 ET: There's an official call for Hice in GA-10, and we can make an unofficial call for Carter in GA-01. Both seats are Safe R in the general. The GOP Superintendent race is a complete coin flip at this point; Mike Buck is up by 1,000 and one in six Senate voters is skipping this line. Valarie Wilson should hang on to win the Dem nod by much less than expected.

9:45 ET: Gwinnett and Chatham are indeed still adding votes, which means precincts are indeed sending incomplete totals, which means we can't put a finger on how much is left. But Perdue's lead is holding steady at 2300, and it looks likely to keep growing. 

9:40 ET: Hall County, the largest county that is certainly finished counting, reported a dropoff of only 7%. If that figure holds statewide, it means there could be as many as 130,000 ballots still out there. 

9:35 ET: Actually, depending on how the SoS site is counting early votes, Chatham and Gwinnett may not be finished (all precincts are reporting votes, but perhaps some precincts are only reporting early votes and will add election day votes later). The SoS, AP, and Politico have been out-of-synch all night, making it difficult to discern exactly how much is out. Currently, 431K votes have been counted, which means turnout exceeded initial projections in the 400-450K range.

9:29 ET: Counting has slowed. Just by looking through the precinct lists on the SoS website, Gwinnett County (which cast the second-most votes in May after Cobb County) appears to be done. But barring greater-than-expected dropoff, there are probably still 20,000+ votes left in Cobb and Fulton. 

9:24 ET: The Perdue lead is almost 3000, and in even better news for him, there are only 3 precincts left in Chatham, and by eyeballing it at least two look to be in heavily black neighborhoods. 

9:18 ET: Perdue is up 900 now, 392K counted. At a minimum, there are 25,000 Metro votes left, and that number may be over 30,000. 

9:11 ET: Kingston now up 400! The comback has been fueled by the rest of Savannah (which still has a few precincts left), some better Metro precincts, and a key win in Athens, which went for Perdue last time. 

9:10 ET: And just like that, Kingston cuts the lead to 600 with a very favorable vote dump. Pay no attention to that man behind the liveblog! 

9:07 ET: Perdue is starting to open a lead up, now ahead by 3,000 votes out of 346K. Again, it's hard to see how the math works for Kingston unless the day-of ATL vote swings strongly his way. And at this point, with all the Metro counties well into their election-day-vote reporting, Kingston needs to hope he has strongholds within the counties that are reporting behind Perdue's strongholds.

9:05 ET: I'm going to officially call GA-10 for Hice, who is still up 55-45. We're also close to that point in GA-01, where Carter is up 52-48 with mostly favorable Chatham precincts still to come. 

9:02 ET: Kingston is doggedly holding on to a 300-vote lead as we approach 80% of the expected vote total. Savannah/Chatham still has about a quarter of its precincts left to report, although some may be mostly black and effectively "empty."

8:58 ET: Ben McGorty (R) won the meaningless State Rep special in Connecticut, for those interested. The GA-SD-8 (R) runoff is tight: 16 votes separate the candidates with 8 precincts to go. 

8:54 ET: Perdue is averaging a 54-46 lead in Metro Atlanta, with much more than half the region still out. By contrast, Kingston is pulling 85% in Savannah, but its outstanding vote is at best one-sixth that of ATL. 

8:47 ET: A quick reset: GA-Sen virtually tied (~65% in), Carter up 100 votes in GA-01 (~65% in), 55-45 Hice in GA-10 (over 80% in), Loudermilk romps in GA-11. Mike Buck has a very small lead in Supt-R, while Wilson's lead has been cut to 52-48 in Supt-D.

Results

[SoS] <--fastest

[AP]  

Discuss :: (36 Comments)

Georgia Runoff Liveblog #1

by: BostonPatriot

Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 18:41:35 PM EDT

8:45 ET: Perdue's lead has dwindled to 300 votes as the first Fulton precincts roll in. Let's move this over to Thread #2! 

8:41 ET: Here comes Savannah, and it's wrecking Perdue like Sherman wrecked Tara. Hometown boy Jack Kingston is getting 88% of the port city's vote so far, and there's plenty more to come. But even if Kingston retakes the lead, all of Fulton County is still out. 

8:39 ET:  Hice's lead is holding up, no if's, and's, or Butts (that would be Mike Collins' home county, which has now reported). It's a 54-46 race and unless the remainder of Athens gives Collins 75% or so, it's a win for the ultra-evangelical caucus in Paul Broun's district.

8:30 ET: Perdue takes his first significant lead (2000 votes) with half the vote in. Kingston could get a 10,000 vote margin out of Savannah. But he'll have to fight to a near draw in the remaining ~45% of the state.

8:22 ET: Kingston's lead has hovered right around 2,000 votes for the whole night, and that's where it is (50.5-49.5) with 173K votes (~40%) in. Kingston is doing well enough in the completed counties (which are generally rural and favorable to him) to win, but the margins Perdue gets in Metro Atlanta will really decide this, 

8:20 ET: Johnson is up 52-48 in GA-01, but again, there's still nothing from Chatham, and if Carter gets anything close to the 5:3 margin he got there in May, he's fine. 

8:18 ET: Hice's 54-46 lead in GA-10 comes on the back of his home base in Walton County (57% in the primary), which is reporting more votes than anywhere else in the district. Two of Collins' key counties, Butts and Clarke (Athens) are still entirely out, so this should tighten. 

8:10 ET: Perdue has the early lead in three important secondary population centers: Columbus, Macon, and Augusta. The only area north of I-20 where Kingston has broken through is NW Georgia, just over the line from Chattanooga. Kingston still has Savannah entirely out, but there are far more votes left in Metro Atlanta. 

8:08 ET: Loudermilk is routing Barr and will be the next Rep from GA-11. Hice is up 55-45 on Collins in GA-10, with all of Athens still out. 

8:03 ET: Tonight's big question: will Perdue's strong early-vote performance translate to election day votes? He scored in the 30's in the suburban Atlanta counties in May, but is over 50% there in the early vote. If he can sustain that pace, it's hard to see how Kingston finds the votes outstate. 

7:58 ET: Kingston's lead is down to 51-49 with 82,000 votes in (about 20% of the expected total). Perdue is leading the early returns in both Cobb and Gwinnett. Conventional wisdom on this one may have been wrong.

7:54 ET: Underdog Bob Johnson has taken a small lead in GA-01. All of Chatham County (Savannah), which includes Buddy Carter's Senate district, is still out though.

7:50 ET: Kingston is up 52-48 with 62K votes in. The early map looks very good for Perdue, who is winning most of the rural counties north of I-20. None of the four large Metro Atlanta counties (Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinett) have reported yet, and Perdue is expected to perform well in that region. 

7:42 ET: Early turnout reports are suggesting that the dropoff may be as much as 30% from the first round. 605K votes were cast in May, so that would put tonight's total turnout in the low-to-mid 400s. By contrast, turnout dropped from 680K to 580K in the 2010 GOP primary and runoff. 

7:39 ET: The Superintendent runoffs are tonight's statewide undercard, and the GOP one between Mike Buck and Richard Woods is currently separated by only 25 votes. Valarie Wilson is up 55-45 on the Dem side. 

7:34 ET: Kingston up 300 with 30,000 votes in. In the early House returns, it's 58-42 Carter in GA-01, 56-44 Hice in GA-10, and 72-28 Loudermilk in GA-11. 

7:31 ET: Scattered early vote from across the state is coming in, and it'stoo early to read much into it. Kingston is again putting up Putinesque margins in the south, leading several counties by over 60 points. Perdue is up 55-45 in deep red exurban Cherokee County. 

7:28 ET: The devil went down to Georgia, and he was looking for counting equipment to steal. And he found it, leaving the Georgia SoS with only an abacus and some assorted sticks and stones to tally up the votes. (Seriously, though, Georgia is one of those states that counts incredibly slowly. Kingston is up 53-47 in the very early going.) 

7:00 ET: Welcome! Polls have just closed in the Peach State.

Results

[AP] [SoS]

Discuss :: (45 Comments)

Georgia Runoff Preview

by: shamlet

Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today is the second part of our July primary "halftime show", with Georgia having its runoff. The marquee event is the Senate primary, but there are also races to decide three congressional seats and both nominees for Superintendent. Poll Closing Time is 7pm Eastern, which is, of course, also when our liveblog will start.

GA-Sen (R): After his relatively easy first-place finish in the preliminary round and with large stores of cash available, you might have been forgiven for thinking that retail exec David Perdue, cousin of ex-Gov. Sonny, was the front-runner in this runoff race. However, Perdue's opponent, Rep. Jack Kingston, turned that dynamic on its head by securing the endorsements of two eliminated candidates, Rep. Phil Gingrey and ex-SoS Karen Handel. Though both Perdue and Kingston are establishment/CoC type conservatives who ran to the left of Gingrey and Handel, both eliminated candidates were dissatisfied over Perdue's scorched-earth tactics and more openly moderate stance on fiscal policy. As such, Kingston jumped out to a huge lead in the first polls of the seccond round. However, Perdue has continued to spend heavily and slowly regained momentum. But it doesn't quite look like it will be enough. Though polls show the race close, the general consensus is that Kingston is still ahead by mid-single digits. While an upset is more possible than it looked a few weeks ago, Kingston still looks like the favorite here. Democrats are running charity exec and Heir Force member Michelle Nunn; RRH currently rates this general election as Lean R.

GA-1 (R): This race, to fill Kingston's open seat in the southeast of the state, has been a fairly typical establishment vs. antiestablishement affair. State Sen. Buddy Carter entered this race as the front-runner, led by 10 points in the first round, and remains the favorite going into the runoff. Carter is a fairly generic Republican and has coalesced most establishment support, including an endorsement from the third-place finisher in the runoff. Carter's oponent, surgeon Bob Johnson, is a fairly typical antiestablishment candidate, with the typical baggage you'd expect. Johnson's campaign has been notable mostly for a statement in which he said he'd prefer to see a terrorist attack than a continuation of TSA screening. However, Johnson has gained support from the Club for Growth, meaning he has a slight chance to pull off the upset. RRH currently rates this general election as Safe R.

GA-10 (R): This race looks like the most competitive of the three congressional runoffs. As the seat of firebrand Rep. Paul Broun, this area is known for its strong SoCon and antiestablishment proclivities. The candidate who promises to carry on the Broun tradition (and has the incumbent's endorsement) is pastor, talk show host, and prospective member of the Southern Republican Men with Female Names Caucus Jody Hice, who narrowly lost a runoff for GA-7 in 2010. Hice has a history of making controversial statements, most notably saying that Islam does not deserve first ammendment protection, and promises to be a radically antiestablishment conservative. Hice essentially tied in the first round with his opponent, trucking company owner Mike Collins, son of 90s-era ex-Rep. Mac. Collins has run a fairly antiestablishment campaign himself, picking up a notable endorsement from Rick Santorum, but is nowhere near at Hice's level in that department. The third major candidate in the race was a much more establishment-flavored Republican, meaning those voters are likely to go for Collins. However, Hice's support from the high-turnout evangelical community could carry him to a win tonight. RRH currently rates this general election as Safe R.

GA-11 (R): The national focus in this race for Gingrey's open seat has been mostly on the candidate unlikely to win. Ex-Rep. Bob Barr was a standard down-the-line conservative in the 90s before his defeat in a 2002 member-on-member primary. However, since leaving office, Barr drifted in a Libertarian direction and became the Libertarian presidential nominee in 2008. Questions about Barr's GOP bona-fides have hampered his comeback bid, and he is likely to lose tonight to State Sen. Barry Loudermilk, who topped him by 10 in the first round and is a more traditional variety of grassroots/antiestablishment conservative. However, Loudermilk has had his own issues surrounding a civil judgement against him for racial discrimination. Loudermilk still looks very likely to come out on top today, but if establishment voters go for Barr as the lesser of two evils (the two major eliminated candidates were much more establishment-oriented) the latter could pull the upset. RRH currently rates this general election as Safe R.

GA-Supt (R, D): This open seat race, to replace defeated gubernatorial candidate John Barge (R), has runoffs on both sides. The Dem side is fairly cut-and-dried: liberal Decatur school board chair Valarie Wilson is the clear favorite over the more moderate and pro-charter schools State Rep. Alisha Thomas Morgan. The runoff on the Republican side is somewhat more heated: Mike Buck, chief deputy to outgoing incumbent Barge, came in first in the extremely crowded initial field with 20%. However, Buck has been hurt by his vocal support for the Common Core national educational standards program. Businessman Richard Woods has made opposition to Common Core his campaign centerpiece and is probably the marginal favorite due to grassroots conservative opposition to the program. However, Buck still has some chance to win if turnout is higher. RRH currently rates this general election as Likely R.

State Senate: Five State Senate races are headed to runoffs. GA-SD-8 (R) around Valdosta is between State Rep. Elias Black and Lowndes County Commissioner John Page. Black fell short of an outright victory by just 1% in the first round and should be favored today. GA-SD-9 (R) is a nasty race between ex-Gwinnett County commissioner Michael Beaudreau, the more antiestablishment candidate, and ex-Lawrenceville councilman PK Martin. They essentially tied in the first round, and there is no clear favorite today. GA-SD-16 (R) around Coweta County in the SW Atlanta exurbs is between two first-time candidates, attorney Marty Harbin and insurance agency owner David Studdard. Harbin seems to be the more grassroots-oriented candidate and looks slightly favored. GA-SD-22 (D) came out as a de facto tie between Augusta councilman Corey Johnson and ex-Richmond County DA Harold Jones in the first round; there is no clear favorite today, but Jones seems to be slightly more liberal. GA-SD-27 (R) around Forsyth County in the NE Atlanta exurbs is home to the only incumbent Senator facing a runoff: Incumbent Jack Murphy has been in trouble due to his leadership of a failed bank. Murphy got 37% in the primary and looks more likely than not to lose today to businessman Michael Williams.

State House:  Five State House races are also up for grabs. GA-LD-1 (R) in the northwest corner of the state is between incumbent John Deffenbaugh and Dade County commissioner Robert Goff; the latter should be favored. GA-LD-22 (R) around Canton and Wodstock in the NW atlanta exurbs saw its incumbent eliminated in the first round; the runoff is between teacher Meagan Biello, who narrowly lost a special runoff for the seat earlier this year, and pastor Wes Cantrell. There is no clear favorite. GA-LD-54 (R) in Atlanta's Buckhead area isn't really a race; attorney Beth Beskin finished 3 votes (!) shy of a first-round majority and her opponent is not actively contesting the runoff. GA-LD-112 (R) covers last-ring exurbs and rural areas near Covington; sales exec Aaron Brooks is the antiestablishment candidate, while school board member Dave Belton has most establishment support. There is no clear favorite. Finally, GA-LD-153 (D) in Albany is between two white Dems, State Rep. Carol Fullerton and school board member Darrel Ealum, for a majority-black district.  Fullerton only narrowly led Ealum in the first round, but the other votes went to a black candidate, so Fullerton is not necessarily the underdog.

Special Election: Amazingly, there is also a legislative special general election today, for CT-LD-122 in the suburbs of Bridgeport. It is technically to fill the five months left on a deceased Rep's term, but bragging rights are really all that's at stake here: the legislature has concluded business until next year. Realtor Ben McGorty (R) and Shelton school board member Adrienne Licinsky (D) will face off; this seat looks pretty safely Republican. More importantly, someone needs to change the law so that utterly useless special elections like this one don't happen.

Discuss :: (20 Comments)

Political Roundup for July 22, 2014

by: shamlet

Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 08:17:25 AM EDT

Poll Update: Thanks to the generosity of our readers, we are more than half way to our goal! We have raised $150 in just one day, meaning we only need $100 by Thursday in order to run a poll next week. If you're able, please send a few bucks our way via the donate link to the right.

Secondly, our GA Primary preview will be up at noon today. And now, today's news...

Congress:

LA-Sen: State Rep. Paul Hollis (R), who dropped out of this race a few days ago, has endorsed Rep. Bill Cassidy (R), the front-runner to advance to a December runoff with Sen. Mary Landrieu. The presence of spoiler veteran Rob Maness (R) probably still throws this race to a runoff.

MT-Sen: PPP (D) has a strangely D-leaning sample for their new MT poll... and still shows Rep. Steve Daines (R) up by 7 on Sen. John Walsh (D). For his part, Walsh also released an internal yesterday that "only" had him down 5. Most polls of this race have pegged Daines's lead as in the mid-teens.

MN-8: Rep. Rick Nolan (D) thinks he will survive this year's re-election campaign against retail exec Stewart Mills (R), but Democrats are jive talkin' to him that his disco-vintage campaign apparatus, left over from his first stint in Congress from 1974-80, is insufficient to keep him stayin' alive. Keep on truckin', Rick.

Governor:

RI-Gov: Could Trophy Husband/Heir Force Candidate Clay Pell actually win the Dem primary for Governor against two more qualified candidates, Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras? Pundits seem to be considering that possibility. With his comically lightweight resume, a Pell primary win might be the only way to salvage Republican chances here.

MA-Gov: State Treasuer and ex-DNC chair Steve Grossman is airing his first ad in his underdog bid to beat AG Martha Coakley in the Dem primary. The ad mildly hits Coakley but mostly plays up Grossman's business background.

MN-Gov: Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R), the favorite in the GOP gubernatorial primary in three weeks, has had emergency stomach surgery. Best wishes to him on his recovery.

NY-Gov: As is his style, Chris Christie once again says the logical thing a little too bluntly. C'mon, Chris. We all know Astorino is not going to win. There's no need to kick him any further.

Discuss :: (123 Comments)

Our Next RRH Poll: Kansas or Tennessee, Help Us Choose!

by: shamlet

Mon Jul 21, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

In continuing with our quest to bring you as much quality original polling as we can, we are ready to conduct another survey. We have identified two possible opportunities to poll: the GOP Senate Primaries in Kansas and Tennessee, both coming up in just two weeks. Both races have been heating up in recent weeks and could be surprisingly exciting, but are still underpolled - meaning either could use a little attention from our highly accurate polling operation. We have some funds (about 2/3 of what we need) left over from advertising revenue and last poll's donations. However, we still need another $250 in order to go ahead with this survey. So we're going to do another help-us-choose fundraiser like we had last year. But we need to move quickly. To participate:

1. Make a donation in any amount by Thursday using the paypal link to the right.

2. Email redracinghorses@yahoo.com with your donation amount and choice of state (Kansas or Tennessee).

If we meet the goal, whichever state gets more in donations will be polled, with results arriving late next week (we are shooting for Thursday, July 31, but that date is subject to change as the situation warrants).

It's only because of your help that we can keep these great results coming. Every penny you donate goes to producing these polls and keeping the site operational; not one editor has ever taken any money for his work with RRH. Thank you!

Discuss :: (27 Comments)

Political Roundup for July 21st, 2014

by: Greyhound

Mon Jul 21, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT

Stay tuned for an important announcement from RRH at noon today!

Senate:

CO-Sen: Fracking is causing some headaches for Democrats in Colorado. A pair of anti-fracking measures backed by congressman Jared Polis (D) are set to be on the ballot this November, and this has caused a rift in the local Democratic party between the environmentalist base and Senator Mark Udall (D) and Governor John Hickenlooper (D), both of whom came out against the measures. Colorado is one of the leading gas-producing states in the country, and Udall and Hickenlooper are trying to avoid angering the state’s substantial gas interests, but have pissed off environmentalists who form a big portion of the D base in the state. Republican candidate Cory Gardner is watching gleefully.

KS-Sen: Independent Candidate Greg Orman has raised an impressive $600,000 for his bid for Kansas Senate. That is even more impressive when you realize that none of that is self-funded or PAC-funded. So far all the attention in this race has been on the Republican primary where Tea-party aligned Milton Wolf is primarying Incumbent Pat Roberts, and Democrats seem to be more focused on beating embattled Governor Sam Brownback than seriously contesting this race. Orman has taken a good first step, but he needs a lot more than that to make a real play for this seat.

KY-Sen: Meet Gil Fulbright, the straight-talking candidate for this Senate seat! Fulbright is running on a platform of honesty, openness, and . . . the rights of fictional candidates. Fulbright is actually a character played by a New York actor designed to satirize Big-money politics, including lines such as "People of Kentucky, you deserve complete honesty, so here it is. I don't care about you. Unless you are a donor, a lobbyist who can write a big fat check, the result that you get from voting for me is negligible”. There appears to be actual money behind this push too, so Kentucky voters will likely see more of Honest Gil as we move towards November.

MI-Sen: A new Epic-MRA poll of this race has Democrat congressman Gary Peters with a 9-point lead over Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. This is an improvement for Peters over their last poll, where he led by 6. The polls of this race have all shown a single-digit Peters lead for a while now.

TN-Sen: A new poll is out showing Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander up only 43-36 over his main opponent Joe Carr. The poll is from a group backing Carr, so take it with a grain of salt, but this race wasn’t on most people’s radar. This might result in Carr getting some bigger backing from Tea Party groups hungering for a victory over one of the more moderate Republican Senators.

Governor:

CT-Gov: John McKinney, one of the candidates running against Tom Foley for the Republican nomination, is facing severe criticism for doctoring some of Foley’s comments in one of his ads. The ad omits some of Foley’s words to make him say “I’m not going to cut spending” instead of “I’m not saying I’m going to cut spending, I’m saying I’m going to hold spending flat”. McKinney is hitting back, saying that the edited clip says the same thing as the unedited one.

MA-Gov: A new poll has Democrat Martha Coakley up only 3 points on Republican Charlie Baker (39-36). There are plenty of undecided voters however, and Baker isn’t getting the support with Democrats and Independents that Republican candidates need to win statewide.

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo has formed a new party, the Women’s Equality Party, to add to his ballot lines. Since fusion voting in New York allows candidates to run as the nominees from multiple parties at once, Cuomo is basically adding his name beside “Women’s Equality” on the ballots in addition to the Working Families Party and the standard Democratic Line. To show just how pointless this is, Cuomo won’t even be attending the announcement. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone form a “Terrorism is Bad” party.

OK-Gov: Mary Fallin has seen her poll numbers sink in recent weeks, most likely over education as the state recently repealed Common Core standards. Fallin is still above water at 52% favorability however, and Democrats need it lower than that to be seriously competitive in one of the most Conservative States in the country.

TX-Gov: How do you know you have too much money? You’re running political ads in movie theaters. Greg Abbott’s (R) massive $36 Million Warchest is apparently too big even for Texas, so he’s buying ads in the previews before films. This might be breaking new ground, as I’ve never heard of a candidate doing this sort of this before. Of course, this is all pointless flailing as Abbott will inevitably be destroyed by the utterly unstoppable Wendy Davis Juggernaut in November.

House:

FL-20: Alcee Hastings (D), aka the congressman and former judge who was impeached for bribery and perjury before winning this Black-VRA district in Broward County, has a primary challenger in former heavyweight boxer Jameel McCline. McCline, who himself served time in prison before becoming a moderately successful professional boxer, is a political newbie and probably nothing more than a speed bump for Hastings’ renomination and re-election, but I can always hope.

LA-5: Throw another candidate on the pile here; Conservative Republican Businessman Harris Brown is running for this formerly open district. At this rate, McAllister might be able to keep his seat if the anti-McAllister vote is split between a bunch of candidates and the lone Democrat Jaime Mayo takes the other runoff spot.

NY-18: A new Gravis poll has former Republican Congresswoman Nan Hayworth up 4 points on the Democrat who beat her in 2012, Sean Patrick Maloney. It’s Gravis, so salt to taste, but it does greatly counter the narrative that Maloney was putting this race away. If only Hayworth could pick up her fundraising . . .

VA-7: Whitehouse Gatecrasher Tareq Salahi has filed 3,000 signatures to run for this congressional seat. He has absolutely no chance of winning, but we can expect a few more laughs out of him before November.

Other:

CA-Controller: Assembly Leader John Perez has ended the recount for this race, effectively conceding the general election slot to fellow Democrat Betty Yee. Perez only picked up a handful of votes in what were his best counties, and therefore decided that continuing to fund the effort wasn’t worth it. Betty Yee will face off against Fresno Mayor and Republican Ashely Swearengin in November.

Montgomery-Mayor: Republican and former Democratic congressman Artur Davis officially running for the mayor of Montgomery. On the surface this seems like a good idea for Davis, as the city is majority-black but receptive to Republican mayors (though the position is non-partisan), but the current mayor Todd Strange is also a Republican and widely expected to run for re-election, meaning Davis might wind up costing Republicans the office.

WATN: Former New Mexico Governor Toney Anaya (D) has settled charges with the SEC relating to efforts to hide that former criminals were secretly running the company he was CEO of.

WATN-New York Politics Edition: Dan Halloran, the Queens Republican busted in one of New York’s many political scandals, described New York Politics as being like prostitution in his trial. He claimed that “Everyone who’s running (for office) is in a sense a whore, because you have to go around begging for money,”. Prostitutes everywhere were of course insulted that someone would dare compare their profession to the cesspool of corruption and moral decadence that is New York politics.

Discuss :: (209 Comments)

Weekend Open Thread For July 18-20, 2014

by: Right Reformer

Fri Jul 18, 2014 at 17:50:39 PM EDT

Happy Friday everyone.  This was quite the week.  May your weekends all be pleasant and fun.

A few questions to get the conversation started:

1. Will Elizabeth Warren ever run for President?

2. What is the appropriate political response to the plane that was possibly shot down in The Ukraine by pro-Russian separatists? Is there anything to do beyond grumbling about Putin?

And a poll ...

Discuss :: (135 Comments)

Political Roundup for July 18, 2014

by: GoBigRedState

Fri Jul 18, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT

Senate:

CO-Sen: Rep. Cory Gardner (R) leads Sen. Mark Udall (D) 44-42 in the Senate race portion of Quinnipiac's polls of Colorado races. The numbers are quite different than the NBC/Marist poll earlier in the week that showed Udall up by 7 points.  The two polls notably represent the largest lead for the respective candidates-the RCP average puts Udall up by 1.

GA-Sen: In their final poll before next week's GOP senate runoff, Insider Advantage has Rep. Jack Kingston ahead of David Perdue 46-41. This represents an increase of the 1 point lead Kingston held in last week's poll and may indicate that Kingston is getting the momentum back that he held coming out of the primary. Although Perdue isn't out of contention by any means, Kingston seems like the favorite going into next Tuesday.

MS-Sen: State Sen. Chris McDaniel has lost his first court challenge dealing with the outcome of his GOP runoff loss to Sen. Thad Cochran. A panel of the state Supreme Court rejected the McDaniel campaign's request to see unredacted poll books from Harrison County containing personal information like birthdates which they wanted to help distinguish people with similar names to see if they voted in both the Democratic primary and Republican runoff. Mississippi election law forbids such information from being released publicly. The campaign says it will appeal to the full Court to rehear the case.

NH-Sen: Scott Brown committed a bit of a gaffe earlier this week in a discussion on a radio show about immigration. Brown talked about a difference between Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and himself "and many other people in the Massachusetts delegation". Although his comment alone may not hurt him that much, it does make it a little harder to convince NH residents that he is one of them.

Governor:

RGA: We now have a better idea of where the RGA plans to spend some of its money in the final 100 days before the November elections. They include the 9 races they rate as the most competitive-incumbents in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Maine, and challengers in Arkansas, Connecticut, and Illinois. They also plan to spend money to help in Colorado, Hawaii and Massachusetts as well. They claim that early spending in Iowa, New Mexico and South Carolina have helped shore up Republican incumbents there to allow them to spend more money elsewhere.

FL Gov./LG: Charlie Crist yesterday announced his choice of Annette Taddeo-Goldstein as his running mate. The timing of the announcement is somewhat unusual in that candidates involved in primaries do not usually announce their running mate choice until after the primary, but as Crist has been falling in the polls recently, his campaign needed to create some positive news. Taddeo-Goldstein is currently the chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and has never held elective office before-she did take 41% in a challenge to Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) in 2008. Taddeo-Goldstein was likely chosen mostly for demographic and geographical reasons as a Hispanic(Colombian-American) from South Florida. For a good analysis of the pick, read this.

House: 

National: Here's a handy chart of 2Q fundraising numbers for all House candidates in competitive races, including amount raised, self-funded, spent, and cash on hand.

LA-5: Rep. Vance McAllister (R) has refunded donations totaling $5,200 to the staffer he was caught on camera kissing, as well as the same amount from her husband. That represents about a fourth of what he raised in the 2nd quarter-he only raised $38,500 total and has $4,778 COH and is $607,901 in debt. Those numbers would appear to be a problem for his recently restarted campaign, although he largely self-funded his campaign in last year's special election.

MI-3: The US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing Brian Ellis, Republican primary challenger to Rep. Justin Amash. The group's support may turn into TV ads in support of Ellis. Ellis raised twice as much as Amash in the 2Q, but Amash retained a COH advantage.

NH-2: A Super PAC headed by former UN ambassador John Bolton is spending $30,000 on an online ad attacking Rep. Ann Kuster (D) for comments she made last year at a town hall meeting where she said she didn't want to talk about Benghazi because she was there to talk about the Middle East. Although the ad is intended to help the Republican nominee against a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, it is also likely intended to increase Bolton's visibility in the state as he prepares for a possible 2016 presidential bid.

NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney(D) is being crititicized for violating FAA rules by hiring a drone to make a video of his wedding last month. Former Rep. Nan Hayworth (R), who is trying to regain the seat she lost to Maloney in 2012 says Maloney should step down from the House subcommittee that oversees the FAA because of the incident.

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Political Roundup for July 17, 2014

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:16:47 AM EDT

Congress
AR-Losing Hope:  Arkansas Democrats might be reaching the end of the line as one of the last holdouts for Democrats in the south.  Senator Mark Pryor is trying to cling to the glory of the Clinton days and years past, but the rising Republican tide that has been overwhelming Democrats in the south for decades.

Dem fundraising:  Senate Democrats are in danger, but they are doing a good job raising cash to counter the threat they face in November.  The bulk of Senate Democratic incumbents being targeted have a significant fundraising advantage on their challengers this far out.

More Dem fundraising: House Democrats are hoping the same thing as Senate Democrats guides them to victory, fundraising.  Like Republicans in 2006 and Democrats in 2010, I am not sure money saves you from a bad environment.

MI-Sen:  Republican Senate candidate and former Secretary of State Terri Land is having her fundraising and financial disclosure forms being question as it is not clear where she got $3 million to donate to her campaign.  According to her disclosures, she does not control assets in excess of that amount, but her campaign is claiming an oversight in not listing jointly held assets with her husband.

MS-Senate: Defeated Republican primary candidate State Senator Chris McDaniel is in the process of preparing a court challenge over supposed election law violations.  Someone just needs to pay off this guy's debt so he goes away.

States/Other
PA-Senate 10: Democratic nominee for Governor and his cronies are picking fights with local parties and legislative Democrats left and right for some reason.  Now they are going after the Bucks County Democrats and their candidate in the 10th Senate district trying to force the primary winner out, Steve Cickay, and replace him with PA-8 Dem primary loser Saughnessy Naughton.  Wolf might be up in the polls but he is doing everything possible to anger the Democratic machinery.

Democratic Schism:  Will the Democrats suffer a generational schism in the near future?  A recent Pew survey shows substantial differences between Democrats on a generational level.

2016 comes to Iowa:  The 2014 election has not even happened yet, but individuals interested in running for President in 2016 seem to be interested in visiting Iowa already.

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Political Roundup for July 16, 2014

by: shamlet

Wed Jul 16, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT

>>A CHANGE IN SITE POLICY: from now on, comments from moderators that are official comment-section moderation will be written entirely in bold. Arguing on-thread with those comments for any reason will result in an automatic suspension.<<< 

And now, today's news: 

Last Night's Results:

In North Carolina, Pastor Mark Walker upset Rockingham DA Phil Berger Jr. in the GOP runoff for NC-6; Walker will now be the overwhelming favorite in the fall.

In Alabama, Think tank president Gary Palmer won the GOP nomination and the seat in the deep-red AL-6 over State Rep. Paul DeMarco. Mr. 49% exceeded that mark in Alabama's Auditor race, as Public Service Commissioner turned 4-time narrow loser Jim Zeigler (R) beat viral video star Dale Peterson. RINO incumbent Terry Dunn was booted from AL's Public Service Commission by Greene County Commissioner Chip Beeker (R), and State Rep. John Merrill (R) narrowly won the SoS race over judge Reese McKinney. All three Republicans are heavy favorites to win the seats in the fall. Finally, the AEA (teachers' union) scored a victory by ousting incumbent Mac Buttram (R) in LD-12.

Senate:

WV-Sen, KY-Sen: Red-state Dems are showing surprising affection for Elizabeth Warren. Basically the calculation seems to be that they need to throw a little red meat to the base to get cash, and using Warren is a way to do so without the more mainstream voters in their states knowing or understanding what is going on.

TN-Sen: In the latest sign of minor momentum for the sputtering campaign of State Rep. Joe Carr (R), talk radio host Laura Ingraham has endorsed his challenge to Sen. Lamar Alexander (R). With the primary three weeks away and Ingraham's show only airing on one TN station, this seems like too little, too late.

Governor:

KS-Gov: State Rep. Paul Davis (D) has secured 100 new endorsements from former "Republican" officeholders. The most notable of this batch seem to be ex-Rep. Jan Meyers, who represented KS-3 in the 80s and 90s, and two State Senators booted in last year's primaries, Tim Owens and Roger Reitz.

FL-Gov, FL-LG: Here's an interesting Great Mentioner piece on who Crist might choose as his running mate. State Sen. Nan Rich (D), Crist's hapless primary opponent, is ruling herself out though.

House:

FL-Redistrict: The Florida leiglsature will (smartly) not appeal the judge's ruling on the map, and will instead redraw the lines for FL-5, FL-7, FL-9, and FL-10 along the lines of something seen here for 2016. This probably means a net shift of ~2 points toward Dems for both FL-7 and FL-10. For their part, the plaintiffs are attempting to force the changes in time for this year's elections. It's unclear how that would work with filing already closed for FL congressional races.

HI-1: EMILY's list has endorsed State Senate Pres. Donna Mercado Kim. The pick is unusual for how late it comes (after all, "E" stands for "early") - as well as that Kim, a relatively moderate machine Democrat, is to the right of their usual picks. One way to see this pick may be as an attempt for EMILY to pad their win-loss ratio, as Kim is still widely considered the front-runner in this race.

CA-52: Here's a very worthwhile profile of ex-San Diego councilman Carl DeMaio (R), currently slightly favored to oust Rep. Scott Peters (D) in this swing district.

State & Local:

Chicago Mayor '15: Cook CE Toni Preckwinckle (D), who would probably have entered the race as a front-runner over the unpopular incumbent Rahm Emanuel (D), will not run.

Indianapolis Mayor '15: US Attorney and ex-IN SoS Joe Hogsett (D) has resigned, and is thought to be considering a run against Greg Ballard (R). Hogsett would be a top recruit for Dems; Indy is the second-largest city with a GOP mayor.

NY-SD-3, etc.: As per usual in NYS, a spate of state legislature "nominees" are declining their nominations in favor of party-chosen candidates. The action seems to be most intense on the GOP State Senate candidate bench. In spite of the over-analysis in the article, this is (sadly) just the normal way things work in NYS politics.

WATN: The two most recent ex-Utah AGs, John Swallow and Mark Shurtleff, have both been arrested on bribery and abuse of office charges. The scandals unfolded shortly after Swallow won office in 2012 and led to his resignation several months ago.

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