CO-Sen: In today's theater of the absurd, NARAL Pro-Choice America is running a radio ad blaming future condom shortages on Cory Gardner because he wants to "ban birth control." (Gardner, of course, has made making the Pill available over the counter a central tenet of his campaign, and probably wouldn't be leading if he hadn't staked out that position early on.) The only universe in which this makes sense is if NARAL is spending its money to troll us.
IA-Sen: A female military officer who built her career from the ground up went to Iowa to attack a woman who built her entire career on her husband's achievements for holding the women's movement back. Oh, wait, I have that backwards--it was Hillary Clinton who attacked Joni Ernst for being part of the war on women.
LA-Sen: I wish VA-Gov had turned out differently last year for two reasons: One, so we wouldn't have Gov. McAuliffe, and two, so Ken Cuccinelli would have better things to do than spin drivel like this.
NH-Sen: Rand Paul, backed by the Chamber of Commerce, cut a late ad for Scott Brown, appealing directly to the state's crucial libertarian bloc.
CA-24: Is Lois Capps this year's surprise target? The DCCC is making a $100K buy on behalf of the veteran Dem, who was redistricted from a safe seat into a light blue one in 2012. Capps easily defeated ex-LG Abel Maldonado last cycle and wasn't expected to have trouble with businessman Chris Mitchum this year, but early voting numbers have been encouraging for the GOP thus far.
LA-05: Ted Cruz endorsed Zach Dasher, the "Duck Dynasty" cousin who is one of several Republicans running against Kissin' Rep. Vance McAllister (R) and Jamie Mayo (D) in the jungle primary. Dasher has support from the whole host of national conservative grassroots groups, which could help him gain separation from the other GOP candidates and earn a runoff spot, presumably against either McAllister or Mayo.
NE-02: Doink. After Rep. Lee Terry (R) ran a Willie Horton-type ad connecting his opponent to the release of a murderer from prison, that very murderer decided to endorse Terry during a court appearance regarding his competency to stand trial. The fact that I just had to write that should tell you why Terry is trailing in the polls despite sitting in a reddish district in a reddish year.
NY-01: Lee Zeldin (R) picked up a helpful and somewhat surprising endorsement from Newsday, the left-leaning daily that serves Long Island and has endorsed Rep. Tim Bishop (D) in his past races. This will likely be the closest race in New York (whatever chaos unfolds in NY-11 nonwithstanding).
NV-04: Republicans dominated early voting here once again yesterday, and the DCCC is now moving in with a $360K buy (which is barely a third of what Crossroads is spending here) to save freshman Rep. Steven Horsford, who appears to have been caught completely flat-footed. Republicans are winning early voting in Dem-heavy Clark County, which contains over 75% of the districts voters, many of whom are urban minorities sitting the year out. That's big trouble for Horsford, as the rest of the district is blood-red desert.
ME-Gov: Here's the other shoe from yesterday's weird Eliot Cutler press conference: Sen. King Angus I Angus King (I) switched his endorsement from Cutler to Mike Michaud, on the grounds that Cutler can't win. Cutler said as much himself yesterday, urging his supporters to "vote their conscience," and Michaud should stand to gain after seeing his poll numbers soften down the stretch.
WI-Gov: Two of Mary Burke's (D) fellow former executives of Trek Bicycles claim that Burke's own family pushed her out of the company for underperformance. Burke and her family are obviously denying the allegations. Either way, not the headlines Burke wants heading into the final weekend, and probably not a good Thanksgiving dinner subject for the Burkes this year!
NV-Legislature: Democrats simply aren't showing up for early voting, and Nevada political guru Jon Ralston is projecting significant GOP gains in both houses of the legislature. He categorizes the Senate as "likely gone" and the Assembly, thought for most of the cycle to be Safe D, as "in play."
Impeachment: Remember this buzzword from--I don't even remember, was it March? April? (Actually, it was July.) At some point the Democrats realized that banging the impeachment drums wasn't going to goad Republicans into making mistakes, and gave up on it...until yesterday, when Harry Reid made it a centerpiece of a final fundraising push for Begich, Udall, and Braley.
UPDATE: Much ado about nothing. Cutler caused a brief media firestorm, but simply reiterated that he is staying in the race and encouraged his supporters to "vote their conscience" if they don't think they can win. So this could have the effect of driving Cutler's numbers down by pushing his soft support into the Michaud and LePage camps (PPP found that Cutler supporters would break 55-35 for Michaud last week), but it's not the game changer we feared it might be.
Elliot Cutler (I) has scheduled a press conference for 10:30 this morning. Speculation is that he's dropping out to boost Rep. Mike Michaud's (D) flagging campaign against Gov. Paul LePage (R). More as we get it...
CO-Sen: When you don't succeed, you try again. I am not sure what else to say, but Senator Mark Uterus Udall (D) cannot stop attacking Congressman Cory Gardner (R) with War on Women themed ads. You would think after a certain point he would have taken a hint.
MI-Sen: Former Secretary of State Terri Land (R) is throwing more cash into her flailing bid for US Senate against Congressman Gary Peters (D). Land is throwing in another $650,000, which brings her total investment to more than $3.5 million. IMO she could have got a nice vacation home for that instead.
Senate: The Senate battlegrounds are tilting away from the Democrats as the map gets increasingly bad with successive polls. Now North Carolina and New Hampshire are tightening in the Republicans favor with Georgia stablizing. Tuesday just looks like a bad to horrible day for the Democrats.
African-American Vote: Democrats are pinning their hopes on the African-American vote turning out in large numbers to counter a fall in white independents and millennials who have soured on the Democrats. As seen daily in the comments, there is some level of success Democrats are having, but it is not universal to say the least.
NH-Sen: Senator Jeanne Shaheen is facing the abatross of DC while having personal popularity in New Hampshire, a state where national trends often go to an extreme on the turn of a dime.
Karl Rove: In a sign of the times, Republicans are outperforming the expectations of Karl Rove, who stated in mid-2013, that the Republicans had an outside chance of taking the US Senate. While Rove is not Dick Morris, Rove seems like old news that is losing his luster.
House Republicans: The Republican leadership is aiming for a 245 plus caucus in the closing days of the campaign as the playing field seems to have expanded. This would give the Republicans their second largest majority in the post-War era.
CA-17: In one of the several Democrat v. Democrat battles in California, it looks like Congressman Mike Honda and Ro Khanna are engaged in a nail biter with Honda having the backing of the political establishment and Khanna having a strong tech community backing. This is probably one of the key races for determining the future direction of the Democratic Party.
Legislatures: Republicans are on pace to gain control of an unprecedented level of state legislatures in addition to gains made in 2010. If the Republicans control 30 legislatures next Wednesday, it would be equal to the modern Republican benchmark dating back to 1920.
RI-Gov: Is the race for Governor really that close? Gina Raimondo (D) was the most centrist candidate in the Democratic primary, but her moderation seems to not fueling much energy among Rhode Island Democrats. The lack of engery is giving Allan Fung (R) the chance to win this race.
PA-HD-163: I say frequently the Delaware County Republicans treat every race as World War III. Here is another example: DelCo Republicans are trying to hold a seat being vacated by longterm incumbent Nick Micozzie (R) that is trending Democratic, but the DelCo Dems probably handed them a hand grenade by nominating a candidate that might be in violation of several portions of the Elections Code. Honestly I don't know why the DelCo Dems could not find a strong candidate who would not have questions regarding living in the district or voter fraud.
One week away from Election Day! Sorry we had some technical difficulties this morning regarding the roundup causing a delayed, abbreviated roundup.
DCCC-Cash: Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC are making one last frantic request for cash from Democratic members of Congress as the DCCC is scraping the bottom of the barrel in the last week.
House Dems: House Dems are fretting over the prospect of losing another 5 to 10 seats to the Republicans. Both parties think this is the likely range in House seats to flip, but Republicans are optimistic that this number might be more and Democrats are starting to fear it too.
SD-Sen: The NRSC is pulling ad buys in South Dakota based on strong polling for former Governor Mike Rounds.
Reid: Senate Democratic candidates are having a hard time deciding who they want as Democratic Senate leader, but they seem to be running for the current Majority Leader, Harry Reid.
GOP-Diversity: House Republicans are likely the become more diverse due to pickups this cycle including adding a number of women to their caucus.
DCCC leadership: A darkhorse has arrived in the DCCC leadership contest, Congresswoman Lois Frankel. Frankel would likely face the task of gaining around 25 seats to retake the House in 2016 at this point.
PA Supreme Court: PA Supreme Court Justice Seamus McCaffery has retired after his position became untenable in the face of a judicial suspension and inquiry into him sending pornographic emails. McCaffery's resignation means there will be 3 open seats on Pennsylvania's top court.
Then the Marist polls:For the Senate, Gardner +1 in Colorado, Ernst +3, Orman +1, Cotton +2, NC is tied, and Rounds + 14. For Governor, Hutchinson +3, Hickenlooper +5, Branstad + 23, Davis + 1, Daugaard + 39.
AK-Sen: In one of the wackiest polls of the cycle, an Alaska poll has Mark Begich up 10 points. Mountain of salt here.
CO-Sen-1: Quinnipiac has Gardner up 5 points on Udall, 46-41
CO-Sen-2: An internal for the Udall campaign has him up 1 point, which is down from his previous 3-point lead.
GA-Sen-1: A CNN/ORC poll has Nunn up 3 points over Perdue.
GA-Sen-2: An Atlanta Journal Constitution poll has Perdue up 2 (Page 14 of the PDF)
IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune has Durbin up 14 points.
LA-Sen: A USA Today/Suffolk poll has Landrieu up 1 point in the general election, and down 7 in the runoff.
ME-Sen: A Univeristy of New Hampshire poll has Collins up 35 points.
A week before the general election, a Red Racing Horses (RRH) poll of a competitive House race in Arizona shows Democratic Rep. Ron Barber with a slim lead over his Republican challenger, Martha McSally. Barber takes 48% of the vote to McSally’s 46%, with 5% undecided. This result is within the poll’s 4% margin of error. The IVR survey of 554 likely voters was conducted from October 21-23 by Red Racing Horses, using an IVR polling system from PMI Inc., Marianna, Fla. Red Racing Horses is solely responsible for survey design and data analysis. The poll was funded with generous donations from RRH readers; Red Racing Horses has no connection to any candidate or organization active in this race. For inquiries about this poll, please visit redracinghorses.com or email us at redracinghorses at yahoo dot com.