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California VBM
by: Left Coast Libertarian - Oct 25
Race Ratings 3.0: Two Weeks Out
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The Ground Game
by: Left Coast Libertarian - Oct 15
House race ratings
by: WingNightAlone - Oct 07
Dont ignore fringe markets!
by: CTIronman - Oct 04
House Ratings Update
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DRA California
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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:




Row Officers

Political Roundup for October 30, 2014

by: BostonPatriot

Thu Oct 30, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT


CO-Sen: In today's theater of the absurd, NARAL Pro-Choice America is running a radio ad blaming future condom shortages on Cory Gardner because he wants to "ban birth control." (Gardner, of course, has made making the Pill available over the counter a central tenet of his campaign, and probably wouldn't be leading if he hadn't staked out that position early on.) The only universe in which this makes sense is if NARAL is spending its money to troll us.

IA-Sen: A female military officer who built her career from the ground up went to Iowa to attack a woman who built her entire career on her husband's achievements for holding the women's movement back. Oh, wait, I have that backwards--it was Hillary Clinton who attacked Joni Ernst for being part of the war on women.

LA-Sen: I wish VA-Gov had turned out differently last year for two reasons: One, so we wouldn't have Gov. McAuliffe, and two, so Ken Cuccinelli would have better things to do than spin drivel like this.

NH-Sen: Rand Paul, backed by the Chamber of Commerce, cut a late ad for Scott Brown, appealing directly to the state's crucial libertarian bloc.


CA-24: Is Lois Capps this year's surprise target? The DCCC is making a $100K buy on behalf of the veteran Dem, who was redistricted from a safe seat into a light blue one in 2012. Capps easily defeated ex-LG Abel Maldonado last cycle and wasn't expected to have trouble with businessman Chris Mitchum this year, but early voting numbers have been encouraging for the GOP thus far.

LA-05: Ted Cruz endorsed Zach Dasher, the "Duck Dynasty" cousin who is one of several Republicans running against Kissin' Rep. Vance McAllister (R) and Jamie Mayo (D) in the jungle primary. Dasher has support from the whole host of national conservative grassroots groups, which could help him gain separation from the other GOP candidates and earn a runoff spot, presumably against either McAllister or Mayo.

NE-02: Doink. After Rep. Lee Terry (R) ran a Willie Horton-type ad connecting his opponent to the release of a murderer from prison, that very murderer decided to endorse Terry during a court appearance regarding his competency to stand trial. The fact that I just had to write that should tell you why Terry is trailing in the polls despite sitting in a reddish district in a reddish year.

NY-01: Lee Zeldin (R) picked up a helpful and somewhat surprising endorsement from Newsday, the left-leaning daily that serves Long Island and has endorsed Rep. Tim Bishop (D) in his past races. This will likely be the closest race in New York (whatever chaos unfolds in NY-11 nonwithstanding).

NV-04: Republicans dominated early voting here once again yesterday, and the DCCC is now moving in with a $360K buy (which is barely a third of what Crossroads is spending here) to save freshman Rep. Steven Horsford, who appears to have been caught completely flat-footed. Republicans are winning early voting in Dem-heavy Clark County, which contains over 75% of the districts voters, many of whom are urban minorities sitting the year out. That's big trouble for Horsford, as the rest of the district is blood-red desert.


ME-Gov: Here's the other shoe from yesterday's weird Eliot Cutler press conference: Sen. King Angus I Angus King (I) switched his endorsement from Cutler to Mike Michaud, on the grounds that Cutler can't win. Cutler said as much himself yesterday, urging his supporters to "vote their conscience," and Michaud should stand to gain after seeing his poll numbers soften down the stretch.

WI-Gov: Two of Mary Burke's (D) fellow former executives of Trek Bicycles claim that Burke's own family pushed her out of the company for underperformance. Burke and her family are obviously denying the allegations. Either way, not the headlines Burke wants heading into the final weekend, and probably not a good Thanksgiving dinner subject for the Burkes this year!


NV-Legislature: Democrats simply aren't showing up for early voting, and Nevada political guru Jon Ralston is projecting significant GOP gains in both houses of the legislature. He categorizes the Senate as "likely gone" and the Assembly, thought for most of the cycle to be Safe D, as "in play."

Impeachment: Remember this buzzword from--I don't even remember, was it March? April? (Actually, it was July.) At some point the Democrats realized that banging the impeachment drums wasn't going to goad Republicans into making mistakes, and gave up on it...until yesterday, when Harry Reid made it a centerpiece of a final fundraising push for Begich, Udall, and Braley.

Discuss :: (67 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 29th, 2014

by: Greyhound

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT


CO-Sen: A D-backed poll of the race has Mark Udall up 45-44 over Cory Gardner.

GA-Sen: A Monmouth poll has David Perdue up 49-41 over Michelle Nunn.

GA-Sen-2: A Rasmussen poll has it tied, 48-48.

IA-Sen-1: Quinnipiac has Joni Ernst up 49-45 over Bruce Braley.

IA-Sen-2: The Braley campaign has released an internal poll showing the race tied at 47 each.

NC-Sen: POS has found the election tied, 44-44 with 7% for the Libertarian.


CA-Gov: A Hoover Institue/YouGov poll has Jerry Brown up 48-31 over Neel Kashkari.

CO-Gov: A Quinnipiac poll has Bob Beauprez up 45-40 over John Hickenlooper.

CT-Gov: A Quinnipiac poll has this race tied 43-43 between Dan Malloy and Tom Foley.

GA-Gov: A Monmouth poll has Nathan Deal up 48-42 over Jason Carter.

IA-Gov: Quinnipiac has Terry Branstad winning 56-37over Jack Hatch.

KS-Gov: A SUSA poll has Paul Davis up 46-43 over Sam Brownback.

PA-Gov: A Franklin & Marshall poll has Tom Wolf up 50-32 on Tom Corbett amoung registered voters.  This is techinically an improvement for Corbett from his 25-point deficit earlier in the year.

WI-Gov: The last Marquette University poll has Walker up 50-43 over Mary Burke.


NE-2: An Amtrak poll of this district has Republican Lee Terry down 46-41 to Brad Ashford.

NJ-2: A Stockton College poll has found Frank LoBiondo up  56-38.

UT-4: A BYU poll of Utah voters has found Mia Love trailing Democrat Doug Owens 46-42.

Discuss :: (155 Comments)

RRH General Election Preview Series , Part 6: Eastern Governors Races

by: BostonPatriot

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today, we move along with Part 5 of our preview series, tackling the 18 gubernatorial races taking place on Tuesday in states east of the Mississippi.

If you want to check out the first 5 posts in this series, you can find links to them on the left-hand sidebar, under the "About" section.

There's More... :: (22 Comments, 1979 words in story)

ME-Gov: Cutler Not Dropping Out

by: shamlet

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 09:37:39 AM EDT

UPDATE: Much ado about nothing. Cutler caused a brief media firestorm, but simply reiterated that he is staying in the race and encouraged his supporters to "vote their conscience" if they don't think they can win. So this could have the effect of driving Cutler's numbers down by pushing his soft support into the Michaud and LePage camps (PPP found that Cutler supporters would break 55-35 for Michaud last week), but it's not the game changer we feared it might be. 

Elliot Cutler (I) has scheduled a press conference for 10:30 this morning. Speculation is that he's dropping out to boost Rep. Mike Michaud's (D) flagging campaign against Gov. Paul LePage (R). More as we get it...

Discuss :: (25 Comments)

Political Roundup for October 29, 2014

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT


CO-Sen: When you don't succeed, you try again.  I am not sure what else to say, but Senator Mark Uterus Udall (D) cannot stop attacking Congressman Cory Gardner (R) with War on Women themed ads.  You would think after a certain point he would have taken a hint.

MI-Sen:  Former Secretary of State Terri Land (R) is throwing more cash into her flailing bid for US Senate against Congressman Gary Peters (D).  Land is throwing in another $650,000, which brings her total investment to more than $3.5 million.  IMO she could have got a nice vacation home for that instead.

Senate:  The Senate battlegrounds are tilting away from the Democrats as the map gets increasingly bad with successive polls.  Now North Carolina and New Hampshire are tightening in the Republicans favor with Georgia stablizing.  Tuesday just looks like a bad to horrible day for the Democrats.

African-American Vote:  Democrats are pinning their hopes on the African-American vote turning out in large numbers to counter a fall in white independents and millennials who have soured on the Democrats.  As seen daily in the comments, there is some level of success Democrats are having, but it is not universal to say the least.

NH-Sen:  Senator Jeanne Shaheen is facing the abatross of DC while having personal popularity in New Hampshire, a state where national trends often go to an extreme on the turn of a dime.   

Karl Rove:  In a sign of the times, Republicans are outperforming the expectations of Karl Rove, who stated in mid-2013, that the Republicans had an outside chance of taking the US Senate.  While Rove is not Dick Morris, Rove seems like old news that is losing his luster. 


House Republicans:  The Republican leadership is aiming for a 245 plus caucus in the closing days of the campaign as the playing field seems to have expanded.  This would give the Republicans their second largest majority in the post-War era.

CA-17:  In one of the several Democrat v. Democrat battles in California, it looks like Congressman Mike Honda and Ro Khanna are engaged in a nail biter with Honda having the backing of the political establishment and Khanna having a strong tech community backing.  This is probably one of the key races for determining the future direction of the Democratic Party. 


Legislatures:  Republicans are on pace to gain control of an unprecedented level of state legislatures in addition to gains made in 2010.  If the Republicans control 30 legislatures next Wednesday, it would be equal to the modern Republican benchmark dating back to 1920.

RI-Gov:  Is the race for Governor really that close?  Gina Raimondo (D) was the most centrist candidate in the Democratic primary, but her moderation seems to not fueling much energy among Rhode Island Democrats.  The lack of engery is giving Allan Fung (R) the chance to win this race.

PA-HD-163: I say frequently the Delaware County Republicans treat every race as World War III. Here is another example: DelCo Republicans are trying to hold a seat being vacated by longterm incumbent Nick Micozzie (R) that is trending Democratic, but the DelCo Dems probably handed them a hand grenade by nominating a candidate that might be in violation of several portions of the Elections Code. Honestly I don't know why the DelCo Dems could not find a strong candidate who would not have questions regarding living in the district or voter fraud.

Discuss :: (228 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 28th, 2014

by: Greyhound

Tue Oct 28, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT


GA-Sen-1: A PPP poll for the League of Conservation Voters has it tied 47-47 between David Perdue and Michelle Nunn.

GA-Sen-2: A SUSA poll has David Perdue up 48-45 over Michelle Nunn.

IA-Sen: A Loras poll has Bruce Braley up 45-44 over Jodi Ernst.

LA-Sen: Rasmussen has Mary Landrieu up 43-36-13 for the November election against Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness.  They don't appear to have polled the runoff.

MI-Sen: A Detroit News poll has Gary Peters up 48-33 over Terri Lynn Land.

NH-Sen: A New England College poll has Scott Brown up 48-47 over Jeanne Shaheen.  His lead is 1.5% if you don't round.

OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley is up 49-30 on Monica Wehby in an Elway Research poll.

SD-Sen: SUSA has Mike Rounds up 43-32-19 over Rick Weiland and Larry Pressler.

VA-Sen: A Roanoke College poll has Mark Warner up 45-32 over Ed Gillespie.


CO-Gov: Rassmussen has Bob Beauprez up 49-47 over John Hickenlooper.

FL-Gov: An 0ptimus poll  has Rick Scott up 42-39 over Charlie Crist, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie taking 12% of the vote.

GA-Gov-1: A PPP poll for the League of Conservation Voters has Nathan Deal up 48-45 over Jason Carter.

GA-Gov-2: A SUSA poll has Nathan Deal up 46-44 over Jason Carter.

HI-Gov: A Merriman poll has David Ige up 40-34 over Duke Aiona, with Independent Mufi Hannemann taking 11%.

IA-Gov: A Loras poll has Branstad up 55-34 over Jack Hatch.

ME-Gov: A Pan-Atlantic Poll has the race tied 40-40-13 between Paul LePage, Mike Michaud, and Eliot Cutler.  The poll is refrenced a bit down the page.

MA-Gov: A Universtiy of Massachusetts-Lowell poll has Charlie Baker up 45-41 over Martha Coakley.

MI-Gov: A Detroit News poll has Rick Snyder up 45-40 over Mark Schauer.

NH-Gov: A New England College poll has Maggie Hassan up by less than a point over Walt Havenstein, 47.2-46.9.

OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber is up 45-38 over Dennis Richardson in an Elway Research poll.

RI-Gov: Brown Univeristy has Gina Raimondo up 38-37 on Allan Fung, with Robert Healey takin 12.


HI-1: A Merriman poll has this race between Charles Djou and Mark Takai tied 45-45 apiece.

NH-1: A New England College poll has Frank Guinta up 49-43 over Carol Shea-Porter.

NH-1 (again): University of New Hampshire has Carol Shea-Porter up 44-40 over Frank Guinta.

NH-2: The same New England College poll has Anne Kuster up 49-42 over Marilinda Garcia.

PA-3: A Mercyhurst poll has Mike Kelly up 52-30 over Dan Lavallee.

PA-10: Tom Marino is up 58-22-11 over Democrat Scott Brion and Independent Nick Troiano in an internal poll.

SD-AL: A Mason-Dixon poll has Kristi Noem up 56-35 over  Democrat Corinna Robinson.

Discuss :: (159 Comments)

RRH General Election Preview Series , Part 5: Western Governors Races

by: GoBigRedState

Tue Oct 28, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today we continue with Part 5 of our Preview Series, taking a look at Governors races in the western half of the country. Flip over for the full previews...
There's More... :: (18 Comments, 1630 words in story)

Political Roundup for October 28, 2014

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Tue Oct 28, 2014 at 08:00:00 AM EDT

One week away from Election Day!  Sorry we had some technical difficulties this morning regarding the roundup causing a delayed, abbreviated roundup.

DCCC-Cash:  Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC are making one last frantic request for cash from Democratic members of Congress as the DCCC is scraping the bottom of the barrel in the last week.

House Dems:  House Dems are fretting over the prospect of losing another 5 to 10 seats to the Republicans.  Both parties think this is the likely range in House seats to flip, but Republicans are optimistic that this number might be more and Democrats are starting to fear it too.

SD-Sen:  The NRSC is pulling ad buys in South Dakota based on strong polling for former Governor Mike Rounds.

Reid:  Senate Democratic candidates are having a hard time deciding who they want as Democratic Senate leader, but they seem to be running for the current Majority Leader, Harry Reid.

GOP-Diversity:  House Republicans are likely the become more diverse due to pickups this cycle including adding a number of women to their caucus.

DCCC leadership:  A darkhorse has arrived in the DCCC leadership contest, Congresswoman Lois Frankel.  Frankel would likely face the task of gaining around 25 seats to retake the House in 2016 at this point.

PA Supreme Court:  PA Supreme Court Justice Seamus McCaffery has retired after his position became untenable in the face of a judicial suspension and inquiry into him sending pornographic emails.  McCaffery's resignation means there will be 3 open seats on Pennsylvania's top court.

Discuss :: (206 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 27th, 2014

by: Greyhound

Mon Oct 27, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT

Oh boy did we have a prolific weekend for polling.

First up, the YouGov Polls:

Senate: Sullivan +4, Cotton +5, Udall +1, Perdue +3, IA Tied, Roberts +4, McConnell +6, Cassidy +4, Peters +8, Franken +10, Daines +18, Hagan +3, Shaheen +5, Booker +12, Merkley +12, Rounds +13, Warner +10, and Capito +12.

Governor: Parnell +3, Hutchinson +9, Ducey +10, Hickenlooper +4, CT tied, Scott +1, Deal +4, Branstad +13, Quinn +4, Brownback +3, Coakley +4, Brown (MD) + 13, Michaud +2, Schauer +1, Dayton +9, Hassan +9, Martinez +12, Sandoval +25, Cuomo +25, Kaisch + 19, Kitzhaber +6, Wolf +13, Raimondo +5, Haley +17, Abbott +20, Shumlin +12, Walker +1.

Then the Marist polls: For the Senate, Gardner +1 in Colorado, Ernst +3, Orman +1, Cotton +2, NC is tied, and Rounds + 14.  For Governor, Hutchinson +3, Hickenlooper +5, Branstad + 23, Davis + 1, Daugaard + 39.


AK-Sen: In one of the wackiest polls of the cycle, an Alaska poll has Mark Begich up 10 points.  Mountain of salt here.

CO-Sen-1: Quinnipiac has Gardner up 5 points on Udall, 46-41

CO-Sen-2: An internal for the Udall campaign has him up 1 point, which is down from his previous 3-point lead.

GA-Sen-1: A CNN/ORC poll has Nunn up 3 points over Perdue.

GA-Sen-2: An Atlanta Journal Constitution poll has Perdue up 2 (Page 14 of the PDF)

IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune has Durbin up 14 points.

LA-Sen: A USA Today/Suffolk poll has Landrieu up 1 point in the general election, and down 7 in the runoff.

ME-Sen: A Univeristy of New Hampshire poll has Collins up 35 points.

MI-Sen: PPP for the LCV has Peters up 14 points

MN-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll has Franken up 9 points.

NH-Sen: A UMass Lowell poll has Shaheen up 3 points on Scott Brown.

NM-Sen: A Vox Populi poll (Salt to taste) has Tom Udall up 6 points on Alan Weh.

NC-Sen-1: SUSA has the race tied at 44.

NC-Sen-2: Monmouth has Hagan up 2.


AK-Gov: That same poll that had Begich up 10 has Parnell up 2 for Governor.

AZ-Gov: Ducey up 9 in an American Encore Poll (R group)

FL-Gov: Gravis has Crist up 2 points.

GA-Gov-1: The CNN/ORC poll also has Jason Carter up 2 points.

GA-Gov-2: The Atlanta Journal Constitution has Deal up 5 (Page 23)

HI-Gov: An RGA poll has Ige up 3 points on Aiona.

KS-Gov: Rasmussen has Davis up 7 points.  That's actually down form their last poll, which had him up 10.

ME-Gov: LePage is up 10 points in a University of New Hampshire poll.

MD-Gov:  A Republican poll of the race has Brown up 2 points.

MA-Gov: A Boston Globe poll has Baker up 9, but with alot of undecideds.

MA-Gov-2: Coakley has countered with an internal poll showing her up 1 point.

MA-Gov-3: However, a public poll released by her campaign pollster has Martha Coakely down 2.

MI-Gov: PPP for the LCV has the race tied 48-48

MI-Gov-2: Rasmussen has Snyder up 3 points

MN-Gov: A Mason-Dixon poll has Dayton up 7 points.

NH-Gov: The UMass Lowell poll also has Hassan up 4 points.

NM-Gov: Martinez is up 19 points in a BWD global poll.

RI-Gov: A local newstation poll has Raimondo up 6 points over Fung.


AK-AL: The unusual Alaska poll has Young up 18 points for re-election, in what is the only result that is in-line with the CW.

AR-4: A GOP internal poll has Republican Bruce Westernan up 7 points for this open seat.

HI-1: A local news poll has this open seat race tied, 47-47.

NY-18: A NRCC poll has the race tied.

Discuss :: (178 Comments)

Red Racing Horses AZ-2 Poll: Barber Leads McSally 48-46

by: shamlet

Mon Oct 27, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

A week before the general election, a Red Racing Horses (RRH) poll of a competitive House race in Arizona shows Democratic Rep. Ron Barber with a slim lead over his Republican challenger, Martha McSally. Barber takes 48% of the vote to McSally’s 46%, with 5% undecided. This result is within the poll’s 4% margin of error. The IVR survey of 554 likely voters was conducted from October 21-23 by Red Racing Horses, using an IVR polling system from PMI Inc., Marianna, Fla. Red Racing Horses is solely responsible for survey design and data analysis. The poll was funded with generous donations from RRH readers; Red Racing Horses has no connection to any candidate or organization active in this race. For inquiries about this poll, please visit or email us at redracinghorses at yahoo dot com.
There's More... :: (25 Comments, 1552 words in story)
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