Fiorina: Some people reading the tea leaves think former HP CEO and former 2012 US Senate candidate from California Carly Fiorina wants to run for president. With her Super PAC spending in Iowa and New Hampshire while bringing Dave Carney's wife onto her organization, there is certainly some posturing going on.
Kentucky: The big number for the day is 47%-45%: Mitch McConnell's newfound lead over Allison Lundergan Grimes, according to SurveyUSA. Previous polls showed Grimes with a lead, albeit with more undecideds in play back in May and February. It looks like Republicans may be coming home to McConnell after a contentious primary, and the gender gap between him and Grimes among women is no longer daunting.
Hawaii: A PPP poll for the League of Conservation Voters (D) appointed incumbent Brian Schatz leading Rep. Colleen Hanabusa 49%-39% in the Democratic primary. Schatz sports 62%/24% favorable ratings as well, looking pretty solid here.
Iowa: This is a pretty lame hit from the Daily Beast. Accusing Joni Ernst of being a "Tenther," the author accuses Joni Ernst of endorsing nullification (which is given a pretty lazy treatment) when Ernst never explicitly says she supports the idea. The Braley campaign is even given a softball moment to clarify it thinks nullification is illegal, which doesn't really make up for Braley horrible press throughout much of the last stretch of this campaign.
More Iowa: In a healthy bit of news for the state party, recent Senate candidate and wealthy businessman Mark Jacobs has signed on to co-chair the Iowa GOP's finance committee and cut the affiliate a five-figure check.
Louisiana: Buried in Joe Nocera's pontification against the partisanship of the Chamber of Commerce is news that the cash-laden group plans to support Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) for re-election.
More Louisiana: Family Research Council President Tony Perkins is endorsing Rob Maness, the conservative alternative to Rep. Bill Cassidy. This race is on auto-pilot, since Maness will probably claim enough support to force a post-November runoff.
North Carolina: After a longer than expected battle with the state Senate, Assembly speaker and Republican Senate nominee Thom Tillis is back on the campaign trail. He leaves the battle with two prizes: a budget deal and a legislated increase in teacher pay, neutralizing an attack that had been lodged against him.
New York: Oddly enough, there is a (very unlikely universe) where Andrew Cuomo wins the Democratic nomination but his runningmate, former Rep. Kathy Hochul, loses her spot to Columbia professor Tim Wu, who is receiving big checks and support from prominent academics and others. Much of his support is thanks to his work pushing net neutrality, a term he coined years ago.
Massachusetts: Treasurer Steve Grossman's Super PAC is attacking Martha Coakley's for not supporting gun control strong enough, specifically sitting governor Deval Patrick's proposed plan on the issue The ad is backed by $250k with more to come.
Hawaii: The results are flipped in the gubernatorial primary, with incumbent Neil Abercrombie trailing state Senator David Ige 39%-49%. A split division for the ongoing factional and racial divide in Hawaii politics.
MI-03: David Weigel looks at the Amash-Ellis Republican primary battle through the lens of the Chamber of Commerce, whose favored candidate looks poised to go down in defeat. But part of Amash's appeal may be his accessibility rather than ideology (although money from AFP and the Cfg certainly helps!).
TX-23: Rep. Pete Gallego (D) is already favored for re-election. It's hard to beat this kind of press:
So there was Congressman Pete Gallego, a Democrat from Alpine, flying back to Texas Friday evening when a small child next to him started chocking on his chicken nuggets. The 3-year-old’s mother, Paige Hoch Flippen, from Helotes, appeared in a panic.
Gallego, a dad, had done the drill before. As he recounted on twitter when it was all over and the American Airlines flight from Dallas-Fort Worth finally landed in San Antonio:
“3yr old on flight was choking. Mom panics-but I did same thing I did for Nicolás yrs ago. Young man is safe. I have chicken nuggets all over.”
National: YouGov has done an online panel of every Senate race in the country and find Republicans doing well, although several races are within 2 points. Nate Cohn has an analysis of YouGov's methodology and how their online panels work.
AK-Sen: Will Republican Senate candidate Dan S. Sullivan benefit from having the same name as Anchorage Mayor(and candidate for Lieutenant Governor) Dan A. Sullivan? It may be different in the primary and general election. The Anchorage Mayor(who is likely better known than the Senate candidate) is popular among Republicans and especially conservatives, but not as popular among the general public.
MT-Sen: If Sen. John Walsh (D)'s plagiarism on his thesis from the Army War College wasn't bad enough, he made the problem even worse by blaming PTSD for it, an explanation which did not fly with local veterans. Also Glenn Kessler in the Washington Post's Fact Checker gave Walsh 4 Pinocchios(the worst rating) for his claim that it was an unintentional mistake or just using incorrect citations.
GA-Gov: Rasmussen has released a new poll of the Georgia governor's race, and finds state Sen. Jason Carter (D) with a slim 1 point lead, 45-44 on Gov. Nathan Deal (R). The poll, which may appear to be bad news for Deal, is actually an improvement for Deal since their last poll of the race in May, which showed Carter with a 7 point lead.
NY-Gov: For a longshot candidate with virtually no chance of winning, Zephyr Teachout, primary challenger to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), is certainly attracting a lot of attention from a group of protesters. The protesters have been showing up at Teachout campaign stops with signs criticizing her for her background in Vermont, particularly for using a Vermont address in a 2012 campaign contribution. The protesters have resisted questions about why they showed up to protest and have tried to hide their faces and avoid being photographed.
CA-25: Even though local Democrats don't have a candidate in the general election for this open seat, they are still trying to have their influence felt. The Democratic Club of the High Desert is holding a debate Aug. 1 between former state Sen. Tony Strickland (R) and current state Sen. Steve Knight (R), who finished 1st and 2nd respectively in the top two primary.
MI-11: Has Rep. Kerry Bentovlio (R) given up hope of being renominated in the August 5 primary against David Trott? Based on what the candidate has done recently, it would appear so. With less than 2 weeks to go before the primary, the congressman has not aired a single ad or appeared at a candidate forum. He has only spent $75,000 compared to Trott's $1.3 million. Bentivolio says he will spend "every dime" of his campaign fund focused on winning, but there appears to be little to show for his efforts.
NE-2: Former state Sen. Chip Maxwell, who switched from Republican to independent at the latest possible moment in order to run an independent campaign against Rep. Lee Terry (R), has chosen not to run depsite getting the necessary signatures to get on the ballot. Maxwell acknowledged that local Republicans pressured him to get out of the race so as not to split the vote against state Sen. Bard Ashford, the Democratic nominee. Maxwell also strongly hinted that he would challenge Terry in the Republican primary in 2016.
NY-21: Republican Matt Doheny, who lost the Republican primary to Elise Stefanik, has abandoned his 3rd party bid under the Independence Party line and will do what he can to get his name removed from the ballot. Doheny acknowledged that he was angry with the Republican Party but said he felt compelled to "do the right thing" and drop out so as to not split the Republican vote.
VA-10: The Clinton wars of the 90s may be replayed in this race. State Del. Barbara Comstock (R) was a congressional staffer charged with digging up dirt on the Clintons. Democrats, including Clinton loyalist Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) have lined up behind Democratic candidate Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust in order to try to stop Comstock, fearing that if Comstock makes it to Congress, that she could reprise her role as Clinton investigator-in-chief.
Fundraising reports for the April 1-June 30 period were due on July 15th, and now that all the stragglers (except serial offender Michelle Nunn and first-time offender Milton Wolf) are in, it's time for our giant quarterly cash-tracking chart. The second quarter contained the majority of primaries, so many campaigns spent significantly more than they took in. By the time third-quarter reports are due in mid-October, candidates will be well into the process of draining their accounts, so this is the last substantive fundraising roundup of the cycle.
On the Senate side, it was a good quarter for challengers in most of the highly competitive races (exception: North Carolina). Alison Lundergan Grimes led all candidates with a $3.9 million haul and Republicans in several key states posted their best quarters to date. The House picture is more muddled, with primaries creating large cash disparities in several races, and post-primary unity allowing several challengers to ourtraise their incumbent foes for the first time.
Incumbents outraised in Q2: Mark Pryor, Mitch McConnell, John Walsh, Tom Udall, Lamar Alexander*, Ron Barber, John Garamendi, Mike Coffman, Steve Southerland, John Barrow, Bill Enyart, Vance McAllister*, John Tierney**, Justin Amash*, Kerry Bentivolio*, Rick Nolan, Renee Ellmers, Mike Grimm, Sean Patrick Maloney, Chris Gibson, and Scott DesJarlais*.
Incumbents trailing in cash on hand: Walsh, Coffman, Southerland, Steve King, McAllister*, Bentivolio*, Grimm, Gibson, and DesJarlais*.
(* indicates the candidate trails a primary challenger, ** indicates that he trails both a primary and general election challenger.)
Happy Friday and only five months to Christmas! The dog days of politics are in full force.
In terms of our poll, we will be polling Tennessee. Thanks for the donations and visits!
SD-Sen: Democrats are not getting a break in South Dakota. Even though Republican former Governor Mike Rounds is facing three opponents including two Republicans, Democrats are not getting a break.
SC-Sen: Democrats are not getting a break in South Carolina from a third party candidate stealing votes from Republicans. Senator Lindsey Graham is getting 45% of the vote in a four way vote with two other right leaning candidates splitting 14% of the vote while Democrat Brad Hutto is stuck at 33%.
MT-Sen: The Washington Post is thoroughly offended by Senator John Walsh's plagiarizing his thesis, but they seem even more upset by a M.A. thesis only being 14 pages! One must wonder why the Army War College thinks that is acceptable. FYI... my undergrad department honors thesis was around a hundred papers and I wrote many other papers in undergrad and law school in excess of 14 pages.
DCCC: The DCCC's attempt to counter the Republican wave that might be developing is a massive get out the vote initiative.
Voter Engagement: More bad news today for the Democrats as Republicans have a substantial voter engagement edge over Democrats going into the midterm elections.
PA-State Senate: As many RRH regulars know, PA State Senate Minority Leader Jay Costa has a tendency to say odd things, but this takes the cake. Costa says that Senate Democrats might be able to win the majority if Tom Wolf expands his large lead over Corbett. Costa is setting the bar very low as Corbett appears to be stuck with a Republican rump right now. Simply put, Corbett cannot sink any lower, which means Costa is writing off taking the State Senate.
NOTICE: If you have donated and have not e-mailed us with your choice of state to poll (Kansas or Tennessee), please do so before 9PM eastern today. We have only recieved e-mail votes for about half the donation receipts.
National: Is a Republican wave coming? Some of that depends on semantics. Some recent analyses suggest that there isn't one because there are only a few opportunities for Republicans to pick up Senate seats beyond their red-state base. But even then, that could net the GOP 7 more seats, which is a significant shift no matter where they come from. Some of the "no wave" talk also stems from the fact that waves are usually defined by how many House seats a party picks up and Republicans aren't likely to pick up a lot of House seats. But that's mostly due to the decreasing number of competitive seats and Republicans being near their ceiling in seats they can reasonably win anyway.
National-Senate: The Senate appears to be headed to a record number of ex-House members in the body next year. Currently, 51 Senators formerly served in the House, just one short of the record of 52 set in 2006. With at least 8 House members on the ballot this year, that number is likely to increase, including Arkansas, Hawaii, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, and West Virginia where a current House member could replace a Senator who didn't serve in the House. Georgia and South Dakota are places were a new Senator who did not serve in the House is guaranteed to replace one who did, and Iowa is a possibility too, with a couple of longshots in New Mexico and Oregon.
IA-Sen: The drip, drip, drip of unfavorable stories about Rep. Bruce Braley (D) continues. The newest problem involves the fact that Braley missed 75% of meetings of the House Veteran's Affairs Committee in 2011 and 2012, including one in 2012 that he missed to attend fundraisers for his campaign.
NE-Sen: Independent candidate Jim Jenkins has released a poll taken for his campaign which says that 65% of respondents in the state say the two-party system is broken and 56% say they would consider voting for an independent candidate. Of course, independent and 3rd party candidates often cite statistics like this to bolster their candidacies, but as is usually the case, people like the idea of independent and 3rd party candidacies more than they actually end up voting for them. It would be surprising if Jenkins got higher than single digits, and as an ex-Democrat, what votes he takes are likely to come from Democrat David Domina(not that Ben Sasse needs the help anyway).
NC-Sen: The Koch brothers affiliated Freedom Partners has bought airtime totaling $3.4 million from August 6 through Sept. 2 for issue ads to use against Sen. Kay Hagan (D). The outside spending should help state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) as he has been hampered in recent weeks by budget battles in the Legislature and has far trailed in Hagan in fundraising.
KS-4: SUSA shows a tightening primary race between Rep. Mike Pompeo (R) and ex-Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R). Pompeo leads 46-39 in the poll, down from a 51-34 lead last month.
NY-12: How does a candidate in an unwinnable race make the news without doing something really bad? By signing to star in a reality show about candidates in unwinnable races. Republican candidate Nick Di Iorio's campaign requested guidance from the FEC to see if he could do the show. The FEC said he could do it, as long as he did not get paid for it. The show would focus on two candidates in "unwinnable" races, although it's not clear who would air the show. Di Iorio's campaign claims the show was under consideration by the Esquire Network, but they deny that any such show is being developed or produced by the network.
WI-Gov: A new Marquette University poll indicates a very close race between Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Mary Burke (D). Walker leads Burke 46-45 among registeerd voters, while Burke leads 47-46 among likely voters. The sample shows an electorate much like 2012 however, which may be too D for a midterm where turnout is expected to be depressed for Democrats.
KY-Gov/LG 2015: State Agriculture Commissioner James Comer (R), who has not yet announced a bid for governor but is expected to do so soon, has apparently settled on his choice of a running mate. The name of that person? State Sen. Chris McDaniel(!). This Chris McDaniel however doesn't appear to be controversial in the way the Chris McDaniel from Mississippi is-he is in his first term in the Senate representing northern Kenton County(Northern KY/metro Cincinnati) and at 36 is considered a rising star in the party.
AZ-SOS: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) has endorsed state Sen. Michele Reagan in the Republican primary for Secretary of State-the job she held before becoming governor. Brewer endorsed her over primary rivals state Rep. Justin Pierce and businessman and 2012 Senate candidate Wil Cardon. Reagan has also been endorsed by two other Republican women who served as Secretaries of State-Betsey Bayless and former Gov. Jane Dee Hull.
MS-state offices 2015: Here's a primer on how races are shaping up in the Magnolia State for 2015. Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is expected to cruise to re-election; he is not expected to receive any serious Tea party-fueled challenge despite his support for Sen. Thad Cochran and the chances of him being defeated by a Democrat are even less unless AG Jim Hood gets in the race, and Hood doesn't seem to have any interest in running for governor and isn't considered a lock to even run for re-election as AG. An interesting race for LG could come about as current LG Tate Reeves (R) is disliked by Bryant and despised by Chris McDaniel. SOS Delbert Hosemann has been talked about as a possible primary challenger and McDaniel himself could run, setting up the possibility(noting the KY news above) of two Republican state Senators with the same name running for LG in two different states at the same time. State Auditor Stacey Pickering (R) could receive a Tea Party primary challenge over his endorsement of Cochran over fellow Jones Countian McDaniel.
San Antonio Mayor: Councilwoman Ivy Taylor has been chosen by her colleagues on the City Council to be the city's new mayor, succeding new HUD secretary Juilan Castro. Taylor is black, making San Antonio the largest US city ever to have a black woman as mayor. Taylor got the nod in part by vowing to not seek election to the office next year, guaranteeing an open race for the largely ceremonial position.
Boom. If the NYT is to be believed, the crew-cut military Democrat from Montana may be making a run for the title of the sleaziest member of the US Senate. From Jonathan Martin:
Each of the six recommendations Mr. Walsh laid out at the conclusion of his 14-page paper, titled “The Case for Democracy as a Long Term National Strategy,” is taken nearly word-for-word without attribution from a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace document on the same topic.
It's also important to note that this was not the work of a 21-year old who made a bad decision while pulling an all-nighter... this thesis was written in 2007.
Walsh was already running far behind Rep. Steve Daines (R) in the race to win a full term for the seat to which he was (controversially) appointed at the beginning of this year. Recent polls had seen him gaining some momentum, cutting Daines's 15ish-point lead down to the single digits. But these allegations are pretty darn damning, and only add to the ethical problems Walsh has faced with regards to intimidating people under his command in the military to boost his own national stature. At this point the odds of Walsh winning now look smaller than the odds of him being forced to end his campaign entirely.
UPDATE: Walsh's excuse is that he was suffering from PTSD at the time. I find that explanation pretty disrespectful to the people actually suffering from PTSD and for whom it results in more deleterious effects than recieving a masters without doing the work.
Poll Fundraising Update: We are extremely close - we have raised $220 thanks to our wonderful readers, leaving us just $30 away from our goal for fundraising to poll either KS-Sen or TN-Sen. Anything you can donate between now and tomorrow will really help us get over the top. If you donate, be sure to email us (redracinghorses at yahoo dot com) with your donation amount and preference between Kansas and Tennessee.
Last Night's Results:
The main attraction was the Republican runoff in Georgia, with a US Senate race and a trio of US House runoffs. In GA-SEN, self-funder businessman David Perdue beat the polls to narrowly defeat Rep. Jack Kingston, who was backed by the Chamber of Commerce and a pair of his former opponents from the first round.
In the House in GA-01, state Senator Buddy Carter pulled out a win against surgeon Bob Johnson. In GA-10, the Paul Broun tradition will survive with the victory of pastor Jody Hice over Mac Collins, son of a former US Representative. And in GA-11, state Senator Barry Loudermilk crushed former Rep. Bob Barr, who wasn't conservative enough for the anti-establishment and had burned too many bridges with mainstream Republicans to have much of a base left eitehr way.
The closest race on the ballot though? The Republican runoff for state School Superintendent, a proxy battle over Common Core where the opposed candidate Richard Woods led Mike Buck by 0.18%. Woods will head to a somewhat competitive general with liberal Decatur school board chair Valarie Wilson (D), who won her own runoff yesterday over a more moderate candidate.
Two incumbents were ousted from the State Legislature, Jack Murphy (R) in SD-27 and Carol Fullerton (D) in LD-153. Separately, Republicans held a State Rep. seat in a special for Connecticut's LD-122.
Colorado: A PPP poll finds incumbent Mark Udall (D) leading Rep. Cory Gardner (R) 44%-43%. Not a bad result in a state that has emerged as a swing state. Notice the generic ballot, where Republicans lead 45%-38%, and the beautfiul number of undecideds for the statewide races like State Treasurer and Secretary of State.
Texas: Uhhh.... this is not about the Senate race you are thinking.
On Tuesday, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) responded to last Sunday’s episode of HBO’s True Blood—the one in which foul-mouthed vampires and assault weapon-blasting yakuza thugs invade a Ted Cruz fundraiser thrown at the George W. Bush Presidential Library. Bloody mayhem, naturally, ensued.
Nope, not touching that one.
North Carolina: Freedom Partners is dropping at least $2.8 million in the Senate race on broadcast and cable, running between August 6th and September 2nd.
Iowa: Give it the Gravis grain of salt: Rep. Bruce Braley (D) 44%, Jodi Ernst (R) 43%.
Colorado: Like in the Senate race, incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper (R) leads former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) 44%-43%. This race took a bit longer to develop than Gardner's duel with Udall, but Hickenloopers prominently liberal record probably helped. New York: The New York Times is going after Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) on state ethics inquiries. Still safe D. In the state where the indictment ticker never seems to get more than a few days before it resets, are political favors really that shocking?
Florida: SurveyUSA finds former Governor Charlie Crist (confused) leading Rick Scott (R) 46%-40% after the former selected a runningmate. We'll see if other polls pick up on this or if it this is simply noise. (Also, does anyone else find Hillary leading Rubio for President 53%-39% kind of odd? Especially with Rand trailing only 46%-42%?)
Iowa: From the same Gravis poll, Branstad (R) 50% and Hatch (D) 42%.
NH-01: Right before a debate tonight, former Governor Craig Benson (R) has endorsed former Rep. Frank Guinta in his Republican primary with UNH business school dean Dan Innis.
NY-04: Nassau District Attorney Kathleen Rice took the unusual step as a congressional candidate of making a campaign stop in Israel. Her district boasts a large Jewish population. Incidentally, her opponent, Republican Bruce Blakeman, is also Jewish.
MI-04: After putting $1.9 million into the race, businessman (and fundraiser) Paul Mitchell has pulled into the lead in his Republican primary with state Senator John Moolenaar. An EPIC-MRA poll finds Mitchell leading Moolenaar 50%-27%. The worst part about this, though, is that Mitchell pulled the attack ads he had been running against Gary Peters running for US Senate to prop up his own bid. C'est la vie.
NY-18: Another Gravis poll with a pretty breathless writeup. Former Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) at 44% and incumbent Rep. Sean Maloney (D) at 40%.
9:58 ET: Chatham County is officially finished, and so are its chances of electing one of its own to the Senate. Perdue's lead is only 3,500 and there are probably over 100,000 votes still to count, but he's doing consistently well enough in Metro Atlanta that we can call this one for him.
9:50 ET: There's an official call for Hice in GA-10, and we can make an unofficial call for Carter in GA-01. Both seats are Safe R in the general. The GOP Superintendent race is a complete coin flip at this point; Mike Buck is up by 1,000 and one in six Senate voters is skipping this line. Valarie Wilson should hang on to win the Dem nod by much less than expected.
9:45 ET: Gwinnett and Chatham are indeed still adding votes, which means precincts are indeed sending incomplete totals, which means we can't put a finger on how much is left. But Perdue's lead is holding steady at 2300, and it looks likely to keep growing.
9:40 ET: Hall County, the largest county that is certainly finished counting, reported a dropoff of only 7%. If that figure holds statewide, it means there could be as many as 130,000 ballots still out there.
9:35 ET: Actually, depending on how the SoS site is counting early votes, Chatham and Gwinnett may not be finished (all precincts are reporting votes, but perhaps some precincts are only reporting early votes and will add election day votes later). The SoS, AP, and Politico have been out-of-synch all night, making it difficult to discern exactly how much is out. Currently, 431K votes have been counted, which means turnout exceeded initial projections in the 400-450K range.
9:29 ET: Counting has slowed. Just by looking through the precinct lists on the SoS website, Gwinnett County (which cast the second-most votes in May after Cobb County) appears to be done. But barring greater-than-expected dropoff, there are probably still 20,000+ votes left in Cobb and Fulton.
9:24 ET: The Perdue lead is almost 3000, and in even better news for him, there are only 3 precincts left in Chatham, and by eyeballing it at least two look to be in heavily black neighborhoods.
9:18 ET: Perdue is up 900 now, 392K counted. At a minimum, there are 25,000 Metro votes left, and that number may be over 30,000.
9:11 ET: Kingston now up 400! The comback has been fueled by the rest of Savannah (which still has a few precincts left), some better Metro precincts, and a key win in Athens, which went for Perdue last time.
9:10 ET: And just like that, Kingston cuts the lead to 600 with a very favorable vote dump. Pay no attention to that man behind the liveblog!
9:07 ET: Perdue is starting to open a lead up, now ahead by 3,000 votes out of 346K. Again, it's hard to see how the math works for Kingston unless the day-of ATL vote swings strongly his way. And at this point, with all the Metro counties well into their election-day-vote reporting, Kingston needs to hope he has strongholds within the counties that are reporting behind Perdue's strongholds.
9:05 ET: I'm going to officially call GA-10 for Hice, who is still up 55-45. We're also close to that point in GA-01, where Carter is up 52-48 with mostly favorable Chatham precincts still to come.
9:02 ET: Kingston is doggedly holding on to a 300-vote lead as we approach 80% of the expected vote total. Savannah/Chatham still has about a quarter of its precincts left to report, although some may be mostly black and effectively "empty."
8:58 ET: Ben McGorty (R) won the meaningless State Rep special in Connecticut, for those interested. The GA-SD-8 (R) runoff is tight: 16 votes separate the candidates with 8 precincts to go.
8:54 ET: Perdue is averaging a 54-46 lead in Metro Atlanta, with much more than half the region still out. By contrast, Kingston is pulling 85% in Savannah, but its outstanding vote is at best one-sixth that of ATL.
8:47 ET: A quick reset: GA-Sen virtually tied (~65% in), Carter up 100 votes in GA-01 (~65% in), 55-45 Hice in GA-10 (over 80% in), Loudermilk romps in GA-11. Mike Buck has a very small lead in Supt-R, while Wilson's lead has been cut to 52-48 in Supt-D.