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Recent Diaries
Race Ratings 3.0: Two Weeks Out
by: jncca - Oct 20
43 Comments
The Ground Game
by: Left Coast Libertarian - Oct 15
2 Comments
House race ratings
by: WingNightAlone - Oct 07
10 Comments
Dont ignore fringe markets!
by: CTIronman - Oct 04
7 Comments
House Ratings Update
by: roguemapper2 - Sep 24
11 Comments
DRA California
by: Lurker1106 - Sep 18
9 Comments
Race Ratings, Take 2: 6 Weeks Out
by: jncca - Sep 17
5 Comments
Governor Ratings Update
by: roguemapper2 - Sep 16
11 Comments
Senate Ratings Update
by: roguemapper2 - Sep 15
21 Comments

About

Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers

Q2 Fundraising


Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 23rd, 2014

by: Greyhound

Thu Oct 23, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT

Lots of polls today . . .

Senate:

CO-Sen-1: Reuters-Ipsos has Gardner up 2 points

GA-Sen: A Fox-5/Insider Advantage poll has Nunn up 2 points, 47-45.

IA-Sen-1: Ernst is up 2 points in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

IA-Sen-2: Ernst is up 6 points in a Gravis poll of this race.

KS-Sen: Gravis has Orman up 2 points, 47-45

KY-Sen: McConnell release an internal pollshowinghim up 8 points.

MI-Sen: That +8 Snyder poll from yesterday also had Gary Peters up 11 points.

NH-Sen-1: The NEC poll from yesterday also had Scott Brown up .4%

NH-Sen-2: A CNN/ORC poll has Jeanne Shaheen up 2 points on Scott Brown.

NH-Sen-3: An American Research Group poll has Jeanne Shaheen up 1 point over Scott Brown, 49-48.

SD-Sen: A POS internal for the Rounds campaign has him up 24 points, though it's unclear if this is an "informed ballot" poll or just a regular internal.

TX-Sen: A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll has Cornyn up 26 points.

Governor:

CA-Gov: Incumbent Jerry Brown is up 16 points in a Public Policy Institue poll.

CO-Gov-1: Reuters-Ipsos has the Governor race tied.

CO-Gov-2: Quinnipiac has Hickenlooper up 1 point, 45-44.

GA-Gov: A new Fox-5/Insider Advantage poll has this race tied 44-44 with 5% for the Libertarian.

IL-Gov: Bruce Rauner is up 1 point in a Chicago Tribune poll that is unfortunatly behind a paywall.

IA-Gov-1: Quinnipiac finds Terry Branstad up 18 points for re-election.

IA-Gov-2: Gravis finds Terry Branstad up only 10 points for re-election.

KS-Gov: The same Gravis poll also has Paul Davis up 5 points, 49-44

MD-Gov: A WPA poll for the Hogan campaign has him down only 1 point here.

NV-Gov: Global Strategy group has released a Nevada poll, and Republican incumbent Brian Sandoval is up 44 points on Bob Goodman.

NH-Gov: The NEC poll has Maggie Hassan up 8 points for re-election.

RI-Gov: Brown University has Raimondo up 11 points.

TX-Gov-1: A crosswind Media poll has Abbott up 21 points. 

TX-Gov-2:  Univeristy of Texas/Texas Tribune poll has Abbott up 16 points.  It's also worth mentioning that he is only down 2 points with Hisapnics in this poll (though with a high MOE).

WI-Gov: A WPR poll has Walker up 1 point with Likely voters, and 3 points with registered voters.

House:

CA-21: SUSA has David Valadao up only 5 points in this valley district.

CA-24: Chris Mitchum (R) has released a poll showing him up 1 point on Incumbent Lois Capps.

CA-31: A GOP group released a poll showing Pete Aguilar up 4 points on Republican Paul Chabot

NY-4: Siena has Rice up 10 points for this Nassau-county district.

Discuss :: (127 Comments)

RRH General Election Preview Series , Part 4: Northeast and South House Races

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Oct 23, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today we continue with Part 4 of our Preview Series, taking a look at noteworthy house races in the Northeastern and Southern United States!  We will work from the Northeast to the South
There's More... :: (18 Comments, 1020 words in story)

Political Roundup for October 23, 2014

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Oct 23, 2014 at 07:14:02 AM EDT

Programming update:  Please look for our House preview for the Northeast and South this afternoon.

Congress
CO-Sen:  Our friends over at 538 have a look at whether Senator Mark Udall (D) is down and come to the conclusion that the polling is not skewed and that Udall is certainly down.

IA-Sen: State Senator Joni Ernst (R) has brought back the hogs in her latest campaign ad comparing hogs to politicians in DC.  Her comparison is really not fair for the hogs.

LA-Sen:  It appears both parties are preparing for a December runoff in Louisiana as both have given up the hope of winning outright on the first ballot in November.

States/POTUS
Legislative Ratings: Governing Magazine has its final legislative rankings of the cycle.  Governing sees the Democrats more at risk this cycle than the Republicans simply because they have more chambers at risk nationally.  

AK-Sen:  Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has endorsed Republican turned Independent Bill Walker over Governor Sean Parnell (R), whom served as Lt. Governor for Palin.  While this has broken down into a race between two Republicans essentially, this might give Parnell some more momentum among those who despise Palin in Alaska.

PA-Lt. Gov/PA-Senate:  Democratic Lt. Governor candidate Mike Stack is publicly weighing keeping his state Senate seat if elected Lt. Governor.  Stack's logic here is highly problematic as he is comparing himself to two very different occurrences when a vacancy happened during the Lt. Governor's term and a Senator was elevated to the position as a matter of law.  Yet again another example of the intellectual deficit you frequently see in the PA General Assembly.

PA-SD-26:  The Delaware County Republicans are known for treating every race no matter how close as the defining battle of World War III, the Philly media is going nastier on their opponent union leader John Kane (D).  The daughter Kane abandoned has taken to Facebook bashing him and the Kane campaign has handled this all the wrong way, essentially blaming the DelCo Republicans.  This is yet another example of why parties backing candidates aggressively should do through background investigations.  If you could, I would strap them up to polygraphs if they wanted party money!

Huckabee:  Former Arkansas Governor and the most despised Republican in the eyes of the Club for Growth, Mike Huckabee, is making rounds in Iowa in what some see as him building up for a presidential campaign.  Like my favorite Rudy Giuliani, he is old news.

Polarization and Strong Parties: Thomas Edsall looks at whether ideological polarization is a function of having weak parties which in term are caused by good government reforms on both sides.  Edsall does have a point as the existence of the Prize Patrol in New York keeps the ideological gulf narrower.

Discuss :: (268 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 22nd, 2014

by: Greyhound

Wed Oct 22, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT

Senate:

CO-Sen: A USA Today/Suffolk poll has Cory Gardner up 7 points on Mark Udall.

GA-Sen: SUSA has Nunn up 2 points.

NC-Sen: SUSA has Hagan by 3

OR-Sen:  Jeff Merkely is up 21 points on Monica Wehby in the SUSA Oregon poll.

Governor:

AR-Gov: A Talk-Buisness poll has Republican Asa Hutchinson up 8 points on Democrat Mike Ross.

CO-Gov: A USA Today/Suffolk poll has Bob Beauprez up 2 points.

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac has Dan Malloy up by 1 point for re-election.

FL-Gov-1: Quinnipiac has the race a tie, at 42-42 apiece.

FL-Gov-2: St. Leo University has Crist up 3 points, 43-40.

GA-Gov: SUSA has Deal up 2 points.

MA-Gov: WBUR poll has Charlie Baker up 1 for Governor.

MI-Gov: An EPIC/MRA poll for the Detroit Free Press has Rick Snyder up 8 points over Democrat Mark Schauer.

NM-Gov: Martinez is up 19 points in a local poll.

NY-Gov: Siena, who have their share of utterly ridiculous polls this cycle, have Andrew Cuomo up 21 points for re-election.

OR-Gov: SUSA has Democrat John Kitzhaber up 13 points for re-election.

House:

CA-52: SUSA polled this house district, and found Carl DeMaio up 1 point on incumbent Scott Peters.

KS-2:  Lynn Jenkins is out with an internal showing her up 12 points.  

MA-6: House MajorityPAC (D group) has released a poll with Democrat Seth Moulton up 11 points on Repblican Richard Tisei.

NH-1/2: A New England College poll has Frank Guinta up 1 point on Carol Shea-Porter for NH-1, and Annie Kuster up about 6 over Marilinda Garcia for NH-2.

Discuss :: (200 Comments)

RRH 2014 General Election Preview Series, Part 3: Midwest & West House Races

by: Greyhound

Wed Oct 22, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today we continue with Part 3 of our Preview Series, taking a look at noteworthy house races in the Midwestern and Western United States!

Flip over for the previews . . .

There's More... :: (13 Comments, 3716 words in story)

Political Roundup for October 22, 2014

by: shamlet

Wed Oct 22, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT

We will be previewing competitive House Races in the Midwest and West today at Noon, with previews for House Races in the Northeast and South coming Thursday.

Congress:

AR-Sen: Memo to all aspiring pols: be careful what you write in your college PoliSci thesis. Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) is under fire for his 1985 college writings in which he called the 1957 desegregation of schools in his state "an unwilling invasion."

NJ-1, NJ-3: Rule #1 at La Cosa Norcross: You don't ever go against the family. The Democratic House Majority PAC has triaged Aimee Belgard (D) in the competitive NJ-3 to shift the funds to the bid of Donald Norcross (D), brother of all-powerful local Boss George, in the noncompetetitive deep-blue NJ-1. This is assuredly good news for ex-Randolph Mayor Tom McArthur (R), who now looks like an even more solid favorite to keep the seat in GOP hands.

CA-52: The FBI is investigating a convoluted story involving ex-SD City Councilman Carl DeMaio (R) and a former campaign aide who accused DeMaio of harassment. The aide alleges he was offered $50K in hush money, while DeMaio's camp believes he was behind a break-in at a campaign office that led to a campaign strategy book being turned over to Rep. Scott Peters's (D) camp.

IL-10: Though Michael Bloomberg usually supports Dems, he does have a soft spot for moderate Rs, and he is dropping nearly $2M in ads for ex-Rep. Bob Dold's comeback bid. Dold is thought to be in a very close race with Rep. Brad Schneider (D).

WV-3: Here's a weird one. Rep. Nick Rahall (D) is insinuating that his opponent, D-turned-R State Sen. Evan Jenkins, may not stay a Republican in the House. Why on earth Jenkins would switch to the minority in the House while sitting in a district and state that are stampeding to the right is probably unknown to anyone but Rahall.

NRSC: You'd think that in the 2014 cycle, with the prospect of major GOP gains in the Senate afoot, there would have bene intense competition for the NRSC Chair job. And you'd think in 2016, with oodles of seats to defend and the possibility of major losses, it would not be a hot gig. But yet the job that nobody wanted last cycle is now set to be the subject of a fierce showdown between Sens. Roger Wicker of MS and Dean Heller of NV.

Governor & States:

OH-Gov: Gov. John Kasich (R) is under fire from the right after he appeared to suggest that he would not support a repeal of Obamacare. Kasich has qualified that he supports a repeal of the law except its Medicaid Expansion provision. This answer may not hold water with the 2016 primary electorate though, potentially causing Kasich problems in a presidential run.

DE-Treas: The open-seat race between hotel exec Ken Simpler (R) and Markell aide Sean Barney (D) has turned nasty and personal on both sides, with the two sides trading barbs over Barney's recent attack ad barrage. Internal polling of the race on both sides shows Simpler up.

IA-SoS: Brad Anderson (D), an Obama campaign operative who is now in a tight race against ex-SoS Paul Pate (R) for the open seat, is adding a disclaimer to his YouTube videos. A GOP operative had filed a complaint with the state ethics commission that Anderson's YouTube videos did not include a "this ad paid for by" disclaimer.

NY-Comp: In the only debate between Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) and Onondaga County Comptroller Bob Antonacci (R), Antonacci attacked DiNapoli for signing off on a $103K secret settlement with victims of perverted ex-State Rep. Vito "Gropez" Lopez (D). DiNapoli is still the overwhelming favorite.

RI-LG: Here's an interesting CW recap of this race, which may be the only competitive one in the country with the Democrat running unambiguously to the right of the Republican on a major issue. Cumberland Mayor Dan McKee (D) is strongly pro-charter schools, and that position has caused most unions to back 2010 SoS nominee and Chaffee admin official Catherine Terry Taylor (R), who is known as a moderate.

NC-SoS '16: SoS Elaine Marshall (D) is appealing a $10K fine from the elections commission for not filing her campaign finance paperwork on time. 

AL-State House: State House Speaker Mike Hubbard (R-Auburn) has been indicted on 23 felony corruption counts.

Discuss :: (241 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 21st, 2014

by: Greyhound

Tue Oct 21, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT

Senate:

AR-Sen: A Talk-business poll has Cotton up 8.5 points over Mark Pryor.

CO-Sen-1: Monmouth has Gardner up 1 point.

CO-Sen-2: PPP has Gardner up 3 points.

KY-Sen: SUSA has McConnell up by only 1 point.

LA-Sen: Cassidy is up 43-40 in a runoff poll from Fox-Raycom Media.

MI-Sen: Fox Detroit/Mitchell has Gary Peters up 14 points.

MN-Sen: SUSA has Franken up 15 points.

NH-Sen: A UMass Amherst poll has Jeanne Shaheen up 3 points on Scott Brown.

TN-Sen: A PPP client poll has Lamar Alexander up by only 13 points,  47-32, with a Conservative independent getting 13% of the vote.

Governor:

AZ-Gov: A GOP group has released a poll showing Republican Doug Ducey up 7 points over Democrat Fred DuVal.

AZ-Gov-2: Rasmussen has Ducey up 5 points, 47-42.

CO-Gov-1: Monmouth has Hickenlooper up 7.

CO-Gov-2: PPP has Hickenlooper up 1 point

SC-Gov: A local newspaper poll has Nikki Haley up by 20 points.

MI-Gov: Fox Detroit/Mitchell has Rick Snyder up 1 point.

WI-Gov: PPP has Walker up 1 point over Burke.

House:

AR-4: Talk Buisness has Republican Bruce Westerman up only 2 points for this open Arkansas seat.

CA-17: A new SUSA poll of this D-on-D general election district has incumbent Japanese Democrat Mike Honda up only 2 points on his Indian-American challenger, Ro Khanna.

MA-9: Emerson college has released a poll showing incumbent Democrat Bill Keating up 3 points on his Republican challenger.

ND-AL: A DMF poll for a local news station has Cramer up 7 points for re-election.

Discuss :: (102 Comments)

RRH 2014 General Election Preview Series, Part 2: Row Officers

by: shamlet

Tue Oct 21, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today we continue with Part 2 of our Preview Series, taking a look at races for LG, AG, Treasurer, Comptroller, and more!

Flip over for the previews...

There's More... :: (7 Comments, 4001 words in story)

Political Roundup for October 21st, 2014

by: Daniel Surman

Tue Oct 21, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT

Stay tuned at Noon for Part 2 of our General Election Preview Series, statewide Row Officers.

Senate

CO-Sen: First Lady Michelle Obama will make two campaign appearances Thursday for struggling Senator Mark Udall (D).

More CO-Sen: The Ending Spending Super PAC, run by the Ricketts family, is spending $1.4 million to air an ad highlighting the recent Denver Post editorial against Udall.

MN-Sen/Gov: Hillary Clinton will appear Thursday at a rally at my ultra-liberal alma mater, Macalester College, which is probably the safest crowd she could find for her pre-presidential campaign midterm campaign swing. Governor Mark Dayton and Senator Al Franken will both appear.

More MN-Sen: The Alliance for a Better Minnesota (a DFL group financed by Alida Messinger)'s Super PAC is launching a "high six-figure" ad buy targeting Mike McFadden on Medicare and Social Security. Also, McFadden has a new ad of his own, a testimonial from his daughter.

AR-Sen: A new Crossroads ad targeting Senator Mark Pryor (D) is blistering. "There was a time when the Pryor name stood for independence. What happened?"

NC-Sen: The DSCC is back to its usual playbook running ads targeting Thom Tillis, accusing him of wanting to outlaw birth control.

NH-Sen: Whether ISIS or Ebola, the Scott Brown (R) campaign has been early to jump on issues dominating the news cycle. While this strategy can be risky, it makes sense in volatile and swingy New Hampshire politics.

More NH-Sen: Elizabeth Warren will campaign with Senator Shaheen (D) this weekend. 

Governor

IL-Gov: Businessman Bruce Rauner (R) has gathered more endorsements beyond the Chicago Sun-Times, especially downstate.

OR-Gov: This article exploring how hard it is for Republcians to win statewide in Oregon feels more like an obituary than a serious question, especially with the cheap billboard featured at the end.

House

ME-2: The NRCC is cutting the last two weeks of its buy in this tough Democratic-held district. Maybe the internals took a dive here, because recent polling had shown this to be a competitive race. The NRCC is still finishing a buy with Poliquin this week, and the article does note Poliquin can self-fund.

VA-10: An interesting profile of Barbara Comstock (R), who has successfully shifted from a Republican attack dog to a candidate who can successfully make War on Women attacks work for her. 

The NRCC did announce new buys in four seats, all Democratic held:

  • IL-12: $300k 
  • MN-7: $500k
  • WV-3: $150k
  • NY-1: $140k
IA-1/IA-3: The best chance for our candidates in these seats, Rod Blum and David Young respectively, may be Bruce Braley. Democrats fear they could lose these seats on the waning chances of the Braley campaign. I'm not sure I buy that, but if it gets outside groups spending money then it probably becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
FL-2: When Rep. Steve Southerland failed to properly answer Gwen Graham's early ads and listen to House leadership, he let himself get drawn into a surprisingly competitive and expensive House contest.  
 
AK-AL: A fun profile of Rep. Don Young, whose blunt style has gained increasing attention with the rise of social media and intensive campaign tracking. 

TX-23: In some of the traditionally swingiest races in the country, debates follow familiar lines. Democrat Rep. Pete Gallego wants this race to be local in a midterm electorate that doesn't like the president much, while Republicans are quick to tie Gallego to Obama.
 
NC-2: Clay Aiken (D) is up with a 30-second television spot featuring him talking straight to the camera.
 
CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda (D) has launched a six-figure television buy attacking Ro Khanna in this intra-party fight. 
 
Miscellaneous

Texas: A handy roundup of newspaper endorsements in Texas statewide races. Excepting the gubernatorial race (where Abbott is keeping pace with Davis), Democrats generally dominate among these endorsements where they have a candidate running a real campaign.
 
Kentucky House: A reminder that flipping a legislative chamber often has much bigger implications for voters than a high-profile race, even if they don't realize it. Of course, Republicans would need to pick up five seats to get there. 
Discuss :: (143 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 20th, 2014

by: Greyhound

Mon Oct 20, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT

Senate:

CO-Sen-1: Mellman Group, polling for the D-aligned Senate Majority PAC, has Udall up 3 points over Cory Gardner.

CO-Sen-2: Gravis has Gardner up 5 points.

GA-Sen: A WRBL Poll has Michelle Nunn up 1 point on David Perdue.

KY-Sen: Rasmussen has Mitch McConnell up 52-44%.

IA-Sen: A PPP client poll for the League of Conservation voters has Brue Braley up 1 point over Jodi Ernst.

MT-Sen: An MSU-Billings poll has Republican Steve Daines up 16 points over Amanda Curtis.

NH-Sen: A Suffolk/Herald poll has Jeanne Shaheen up 3 points for re-election.

NC-Sen: Gravis has Tillis up 5 points.

Governor:

AR-Gov: Rasmussen has Hutchinson up 2 points.

CO-Gov: Gravis has Beauprez up 4 points on Hickenlooper.

CT-Gov: Rasmussen has Tom Foley up 7 points over incumbent Dan Malloy.

FL-Gov-1: St. Pete Polls has Crist up 2 points on Rick Scott.

FL-Gov-2: Optimus has Scott up 1 point, 41-40.

GA-Gov: The WRBL poll has Jason Carter and Nathan Deal tied in the Governor's race.

IL-Gov: Southern Illinois University has Bruce Rauner up 1 point.

MA-Gov: Buried in this Boston Globe poll about  current Governor Deval Patrick is a poll of the upcoming Governor election, where Charlie Baker is tied with Martha Coakley 41-41.

MN-Gov: SUSA has Dayton up by 10 points for re-election.

PA-Gov: Magellan has this election much closer than anybody else, with Tom Wolf leading by only 7 points.

TX-Gov: Wendy Davis is up -15 points in a KHOU poll.

WY-Gov: Republican Governor Matt Mead is up 25 points on his challenger, Pete Gosar, according to a local newspaper poll.

House: 

AR-1: Talkbuisness has Rick Crawford up 22 points for re-election

AR-2:  Talkbuisness also has Democrat Henry Hays up 5 points on Republican French Hill in the Little-Rock based 2nd district.

MI-11: Dave Trott (R) is up 12 points in a Fox/Mitchell poll.

MN-8: SUSA has R challenger Stewart Mills up 8 points over Rick Nolan.

MT-AL: That MSU-Billings poll also has Republican Ryan Zinke up 7 points for the open at-large seat.

NY-19: A Gibson internal poll has him up 26 points over challenger Sean Eldridge.

VA-10: A Citizens United Political Victory Fund (R Group) poll has Barbara Comstock up 51-35 in this NOVA district.

Other:

Oakland-Mayor: A poll from the Oakland Chamber of Commerce has incumbent Jean Quan polling terribly (57% Unfavorable rating), and down for re-election.  Quan polls decently for the first vote, but her support trails off significantly for the 2nd and 3rd votes, which puts here in 3rd place behind city council members Rebecca Kapaln and Libby Schaaf, with Schaaf getting a recent boost from the endorsement of Governor (and former Oakland Mayor) Jerry Brown.  The poll is on page 36/50.

UK-2015: A You Gov poll of the British electorate has Labor up 33-31 over the Tories, with the UKIP taking 19 % of the vote.  The Tories are actually holding up quite nicely given that the UKIP was expected to be drawing most of its support from their ranks.  With that topline and a significant rise in support for the SNP in Scotland, it's highly likely that the country is heading towards another hung parliament.

Discuss :: (157 Comments)
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