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California VBM
by: Left Coast Libertarian - Oct 25
Race Ratings 3.0: Two Weeks Out
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House race ratings
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Dont ignore fringe markets!
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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:




Row Officers

Weekend Open Thread For October 31-November 2, 2014

by: Right Reformer

Fri Oct 31, 2014 at 18:00:00 PM EDT

Happy Halloween everyone. Enjoy what is sure to be a weekend full of candy, polling data - and RRH's Final Race Ratings at Noon tomorrow.

Here are some questions to get the weekend started.

1.  Other than voter ID, what steps should be taken to improve vote integrity?

2.  Which ads from the general election season have been the most effective, which ones the least effective?

And a poll ...

Discuss :: (57 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 31, 2014

by: shamlet

Fri Oct 31, 2014 at 14:00:00 PM EDT

Because the polls are coming fast and furious, we are putting in our only Friday PM roundup of the year. We may also have update post(s) over the weekend if poll volume and traffic warrant it and our schedule complies.


GA-Sen, GA-Gov: Landmark, which has been the most D-friendly pollster in GA this year, puts David Perdue (R) up on Michelle Nunn (D) for Senate 47-46, and Gov. Nathan Deal (R) up on Jason Carter (D) 48-46.

IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Reuters has the Senate race between State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and Rep. Bruce Braley (D) tied at 45, while Gov. Terry Branstad (R) posts a 57-34 lead over State Sen. Jack Hatch (D).

More IA-Sen: Ras has Ernst up 48-47.

ME-Sen, ME-Gov: Reuters also puts Gov. Paul LePage (R) and Rep. Mike Michaud (D) in a 42-42 tie, while Sen. Susan Collins (R) has a 64-32 lead.

OR-Sen, OR-Gov: Survey USA gives Dems double-digit leads both these races, with Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) up 53-32 over Monica Wehby (R) and Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) up 50-40 over State Rep. Dennis Richardson (R).

AK-Sen: Ras puts Dan S. Sullivan (R) ahead of Sen. Mark Begich (D) 47-42.

KY-Sen: Survey USA puts Mitch McConnell (R) up on Allison Lundergan Grimes (D) 48-43.

VA-Sen: Christoper Newport University shows Sen. Mark Warner (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) 51-44. Gillespie seems to be closing the gap but it doesn't look like nearly enough to win.


FL-Gov: A poll from University of Florida has Crist (D) ahead of Gov. Rick Scott (R) 42-41.

MA-Gov: The weekly Globe tracking poll puts Charlie Baker (R) ahead of Martha Coakley (D) 44-37, a slight improvement for Coakley over last weeks outlierish 9-point Baker lead.

More MA-Gov: Western New England U. has Baker up 46-41.

PA-Gov: A Muhlenberg Poll shows Gov. Tom Corbett (R) trailing Tom Wolf (D) "only" 51-39.

More PA-Gov: Magellan has the race even closer, with Wolf leading 50-43.

WI-Gov: PPP for the WIDP has Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading Mary Burke (D) 48-47.


NY-18: Siena has Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) leading 49-44 in his rematch with ex-Rep. Nan Hayworth (R).

NY-21: An internal for Elise Stefanik (R) has her leading 47-33, which is actually a smaller margin than a recent Siena poll.

UT-4: Another poll has this race closer than first thought. Dan Jones has Mia Love (R) leading Wayne Owens (D) by just 48-43.

Discuss :: (115 Comments)

Morning Roundup For October 31, 2014

by: Right Reformer

Fri Oct 31, 2014 at 07:02:22 AM EDT

Good morning everyone, and Happy Halloween. We have very scary roundup ... for Democrats.


Ebola:  Still no coherent policy from the White House, and the cake is baked going into the midterms. My sense is that this has a general "malaise" effect on Dems, and less of a specific impact because of the issue itself.

Israel:  This wouldn't be the Obama administration if there weren't one more tale of incompetency on the eve of the election.  In addition to someone calling Prime Minister Netanyahu "a chickenshi*t," both John Kerry and Joe Biden snubbed the Israeli Defense Minister last week by refusing to meet with him.

2016, Clinton:  At an event in Maryland for Anthony Brown, Clinton was repeatedly heckled by immigration activists. Apparently they also made a showing at a Kay Hagan event last week.  Keep up the protests against Democrats, Dreamers. 


MD-Gov:  Not even Hillary could pack a house for Anthony Brown in College Park, Maryland.  Even if Brown wins, he will have limped into office.

ME-Gov:  LePage has promised to use his full authority to ensure that a woman who has returned from West Africa goes through normal quarantine procedures for Ebola.  

FL-Gov:  This is kind of an awkward interview between Sean Hannity and Rick Scott, but you can see Rick Scott is really trying to be likeable.  Also, they show part of this ad, which is pretty good. 


538:  Nate Silver gives the GOP a 68.5% chance of takeover, our highest odds all year long. Basically the GOP picks up 8 seats, with a 1/3 chance of a 9th in NC and a 1/5 chance of a 10th in NH.

MT-Sen:  The Executive Director of the NRSC is telling stories out of school, and decided to go on the record with the fact that the NRSC discovered John Walsh's plagiarism earlier this year, and leaked the story to the NYT for breaking.  I don't think this reduces the value of the hit, but the timing is weird.  Maybe wait till after the election to explain the NRSC's oppo research strategies.

NH-Sen:  In a Candy Crowley moment, a debate moderator interrupted Scott Brown and incorrectly advised him that his New Hampshire geography was wrong.  The Shaheen campaign intends to make a big deal out of it by sending the Democrat to Sullivan County, but the moderator has already admitted that Brown was right and apologized.  I'm sure Shaheen will do the honorable thing here, and not demagogue on a false issue.  Wait. 

LA-Sen:  Landreiu says it's hard in the South, where people are so racist and sexist.  I'm paraphrasing only a little.

NC-Sen:  Recount preparations are being made by both sides in NC.  Part of this is normal prep that any smart campaign would do, but it's also partly about the recognition that the NC race is so close that it could easily go extra innings. 

More NC:  The race has gotten so heated that even 8 year olds are winning news cycles by criticizing the campaigns. 


UT-4:  Mia Love will pull this out.  Hopefully she'll have a better campaign next cycle.

NY-11:  Even John Stewart goes after Dominic Recchia. Go to 3:45. Michael Grimm "has a 44 percentage record on labor."  The reporter is understandably confused.


World Series:  So was Kansas City's magical run to Game 7 of the World Series, but then narrow loss to the Giants, helpful to Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback, or not?  In many ways, it's impossible to compare a baseball championship series to college football.  Is the fact that Kansas City baseball (in Missouri, naturally) is strong and vibrant good for Kansas politicians?  Does the fact that the Royals pushed the Giants to the brink before losing make a difference? The study on college football a few years ago doesn't answer these questions.

Partyism:  Don't be afraid to be friends with people who disagree with you vehemently on politics. 

Discuss :: (238 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 30th, 2014

by: Greyhound

Thu Oct 30, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT

5 days to go . . .


AR-Sen: The 2014 Arkansas poll has Tom Cotton up 49-36 over Mark Pryor.

AR-Sen-2: Rasmussen has  Tom Cotton up 51-44.

CO-Sen-1: Quinnipiac has Cory Gardner up 46-39 on Mark Udall.

CO-Sen-2: A PPP poll for the LCV has the race tied, at 48-48.

CO-Sen-3: A SUSA/Denver Post Poll has  Cory Gardner up 46-44.

KY-Sen: A POS poll  has Mitch McConnell up 50-43 on Alison Lundergan Grimes.

NC-Sen-1: Elon University has Kay Hagan up 45-41 on Thom Tillis.

NC-Sen-2: PPP for the LCV has Kay Hagan up 47-46.

NC-Sen-3: Rasmussen has Kay Hagan up 47-46.


AR-Gov-1: The 2014 Arkansas Poll has Asa Hutchinson up 50-39 on Mike Ross.

AR-Gov-2: Rasmussen has Asa Hutchinson up 50-43.

CA-Gov: A Field poll has Jerry Brown up 54-33 on Neel Kashkari.

CO-Gov: A PPP poll for the LCV has the race tied between John Hickenlooper and Bob Beauprez, 47-47.

FL-Gov-1: SEA Polling has Rick Scott up 45-43 on Charlie Crist.

FL-Gov-2: Quinnipiac has Charlie Crist up 43-40 in their latest poll.

GA-Gov: A Rasmussen poll has Nathan Deal up 49-43 over Jason Carter.

MD-Gov: A Hogan internal has him up 44-39 on Anthony Brown.

MA-Gov: A Suffolk/Herald poll has Charlie Baker up 46-43 on Martha Coakley.

MA-Gov-2: An Emerson College poll has Charlie Baker up 48-42.


MA-6: An Emerson College poll has Richard Tisei up 42-40 over Seth Moulton.

MA-9: The same Emerson College poll has Bill Keating up 46-41 over John Chapman.

NJ-5: A Monmouth poll has Scott Garrett up 53-42 over Roy Cho.

Discuss :: (155 Comments)

RRH 2014 General Election Preview Series, Part 7: US Senate

by: shamlet

Thu Oct 30, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today we wrap up our previews with a look at the Senate picture. To see the previous 6 parts in our series, please click on the links in the "about" box to the left. Please note that the ratings are from three weeks ago and some may be changed when we recompile our Ratings on Saturday.

Flip over for the full previews...

There's More... :: (9 Comments, 4280 words in story)

Political Roundup for October 30, 2014

by: BostonPatriot

Thu Oct 30, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT


CO-Sen: In today's theater of the absurd, NARAL Pro-Choice America is running a radio ad blaming future condom shortages on Cory Gardner because he wants to "ban birth control." (Gardner, of course, has made making the Pill available over the counter a central tenet of his campaign, and probably wouldn't be leading if he hadn't staked out that position early on.) The only universe in which this makes sense is if NARAL is spending its money to troll us.

IA-Sen: A female military officer who built her career from the ground up went to Iowa to attack a woman who built her entire career on her husband's achievements for holding the women's movement back. Oh, wait, I have that backwards--it was Hillary Clinton who attacked Joni Ernst for being part of the war on women.

LA-Sen: I wish VA-Gov had turned out differently last year for two reasons: One, so we wouldn't have Gov. McAuliffe, and two, so Ken Cuccinelli would have better things to do than spin drivel like this.

NH-Sen: Rand Paul, backed by the Chamber of Commerce, cut a late ad for Scott Brown, appealing directly to the state's crucial libertarian bloc.


CA-24: Is Lois Capps this year's surprise target? The DCCC is making a $100K buy on behalf of the veteran Dem, who was redistricted from a safe seat into a light blue one in 2012. Capps easily defeated ex-LG Abel Maldonado last cycle and wasn't expected to have trouble with businessman Chris Mitchum this year, but early voting numbers have been encouraging for the GOP thus far.

LA-05: Ted Cruz endorsed Zach Dasher, the "Duck Dynasty" cousin who is one of several Republicans running against Kissin' Rep. Vance McAllister (R) and Jamie Mayo (D) in the jungle primary. Dasher has support from the whole host of national conservative grassroots groups, which could help him gain separation from the other GOP candidates and earn a runoff spot, presumably against either McAllister or Mayo.

NE-02: Doink. After Rep. Lee Terry (R) ran a Willie Horton-type ad connecting his opponent to the release of a murderer from prison, that very murderer decided to endorse Terry during a court appearance regarding his competency to stand trial. The fact that I just had to write that should tell you why Terry is trailing in the polls despite sitting in a reddish district in a reddish year.

NY-01: Lee Zeldin (R) picked up a helpful and somewhat surprising endorsement from Newsday, the left-leaning daily that serves Long Island and has endorsed Rep. Tim Bishop (D) in his past races. This will likely be the closest race in New York (whatever chaos unfolds in NY-11 nonwithstanding).

NV-04: Republicans dominated early voting here once again yesterday, and the DCCC is now moving in with a $360K buy (which is barely a third of what Crossroads is spending here) to save freshman Rep. Steven Horsford, who appears to have been caught completely flat-footed. Republicans are winning early voting in Dem-heavy Clark County, which contains over 75% of the districts voters, many of whom are urban minorities sitting the year out. That's big trouble for Horsford, as the rest of the district is blood-red desert.


ME-Gov: Here's the other shoe from yesterday's weird Eliot Cutler press conference: Sen. King Angus I Angus King (I) switched his endorsement from Cutler to Mike Michaud, on the grounds that Cutler can't win. Cutler said as much himself yesterday, urging his supporters to "vote their conscience," and Michaud should stand to gain after seeing his poll numbers soften down the stretch.

WI-Gov: Two of Mary Burke's (D) fellow former executives of Trek Bicycles claim that Burke's own family pushed her out of the company for underperformance. Burke and her family are obviously denying the allegations. Either way, not the headlines Burke wants heading into the final weekend, and probably not a good Thanksgiving dinner subject for the Burkes this year!


NV-Legislature: Democrats simply aren't showing up for early voting, and Nevada political guru Jon Ralston is projecting significant GOP gains in both houses of the legislature. He categorizes the Senate as "likely gone" and the Assembly, thought for most of the cycle to be Safe D, as "in play."

Impeachment: Remember this buzzword from--I don't even remember, was it March? April? (Actually, it was July.) At some point the Democrats realized that banging the impeachment drums wasn't going to goad Republicans into making mistakes, and gave up on it...until yesterday, when Harry Reid made it a centerpiece of a final fundraising push for Begich, Udall, and Braley.

Discuss :: (280 Comments)

Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 29th, 2014

by: Greyhound

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 16:00:00 PM EDT


CO-Sen: A D-backed poll of the race has Mark Udall up 45-44 over Cory Gardner.

GA-Sen: A Monmouth poll has David Perdue up 49-41 over Michelle Nunn.

GA-Sen-2: A Rasmussen poll has it tied, 48-48.

IA-Sen-1: Quinnipiac has Joni Ernst up 49-45 over Bruce Braley.

IA-Sen-2: The Braley campaign has released an internal poll showing the race tied at 47 each.

NC-Sen: POS has found the election tied, 44-44 with 7% for the Libertarian.


CA-Gov: A Hoover Institue/YouGov poll has Jerry Brown up 48-31 over Neel Kashkari.

CO-Gov: A Quinnipiac poll has Bob Beauprez up 45-40 over John Hickenlooper.

CT-Gov: A Quinnipiac poll has this race tied 43-43 between Dan Malloy and Tom Foley.

GA-Gov: A Monmouth poll has Nathan Deal up 48-42 over Jason Carter.

IA-Gov: Quinnipiac has Terry Branstad winning 56-37over Jack Hatch.

KS-Gov: A SUSA poll has Paul Davis up 46-43 over Sam Brownback.

PA-Gov: A Franklin & Marshall poll has Tom Wolf up 50-32 on Tom Corbett amoung registered voters.  This is techinically an improvement for Corbett from his 25-point deficit earlier in the year.

WI-Gov: The last Marquette University poll has Walker up 50-43 over Mary Burke.


NE-2: An Amtrak poll of this district has Republican Lee Terry down 46-41 to Brad Ashford.

NJ-2: A Stockton College poll has found Frank LoBiondo up  56-38.

UT-4: A BYU poll of Utah voters has found Mia Love trailing Democrat Doug Owens 46-42.

Discuss :: (155 Comments)

RRH General Election Preview Series , Part 6: Eastern Governors Races

by: BostonPatriot

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 12:00:00 PM EDT

Today, we move along with Part 5 of our preview series, tackling the 18 gubernatorial races taking place on Tuesday in states east of the Mississippi.

If you want to check out the first 5 posts in this series, you can find links to them on the left-hand sidebar, under the "About" section.

There's More... :: (20 Comments, 1979 words in story)

ME-Gov: Cutler Not Dropping Out

by: shamlet

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 09:37:39 AM EDT

UPDATE: Much ado about nothing. Cutler caused a brief media firestorm, but simply reiterated that he is staying in the race and encouraged his supporters to "vote their conscience" if they don't think they can win. So this could have the effect of driving Cutler's numbers down by pushing his soft support into the Michaud and LePage camps (PPP found that Cutler supporters would break 55-35 for Michaud last week), but it's not the game changer we feared it might be. 

Elliot Cutler (I) has scheduled a press conference for 10:30 this morning. Speculation is that he's dropping out to boost Rep. Mike Michaud's (D) flagging campaign against Gov. Paul LePage (R). More as we get it...

Discuss :: (25 Comments)

Political Roundup for October 29, 2014

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 07:00:00 AM EDT


CO-Sen: When you don't succeed, you try again.  I am not sure what else to say, but Senator Mark Uterus Udall (D) cannot stop attacking Congressman Cory Gardner (R) with War on Women themed ads.  You would think after a certain point he would have taken a hint.

MI-Sen:  Former Secretary of State Terri Land (R) is throwing more cash into her flailing bid for US Senate against Congressman Gary Peters (D).  Land is throwing in another $650,000, which brings her total investment to more than $3.5 million.  IMO she could have got a nice vacation home for that instead.

Senate:  The Senate battlegrounds are tilting away from the Democrats as the map gets increasingly bad with successive polls.  Now North Carolina and New Hampshire are tightening in the Republicans favor with Georgia stablizing.  Tuesday just looks like a bad to horrible day for the Democrats.

African-American Vote:  Democrats are pinning their hopes on the African-American vote turning out in large numbers to counter a fall in white independents and millennials who have soured on the Democrats.  As seen daily in the comments, there is some level of success Democrats are having, but it is not universal to say the least.

NH-Sen:  Senator Jeanne Shaheen is facing the abatross of DC while having personal popularity in New Hampshire, a state where national trends often go to an extreme on the turn of a dime.   

Karl Rove:  In a sign of the times, Republicans are outperforming the expectations of Karl Rove, who stated in mid-2013, that the Republicans had an outside chance of taking the US Senate.  While Rove is not Dick Morris, Rove seems like old news that is losing his luster. 


House Republicans:  The Republican leadership is aiming for a 245 plus caucus in the closing days of the campaign as the playing field seems to have expanded.  This would give the Republicans their second largest majority in the post-War era.

CA-17:  In one of the several Democrat v. Democrat battles in California, it looks like Congressman Mike Honda and Ro Khanna are engaged in a nail biter with Honda having the backing of the political establishment and Khanna having a strong tech community backing.  This is probably one of the key races for determining the future direction of the Democratic Party. 


Legislatures:  Republicans are on pace to gain control of an unprecedented level of state legislatures in addition to gains made in 2010.  If the Republicans control 30 legislatures next Wednesday, it would be equal to the modern Republican benchmark dating back to 1920.

RI-Gov:  Is the race for Governor really that close?  Gina Raimondo (D) was the most centrist candidate in the Democratic primary, but her moderation seems to not fueling much energy among Rhode Island Democrats.  The lack of engery is giving Allan Fung (R) the chance to win this race.

PA-HD-163: I say frequently the Delaware County Republicans treat every race as World War III. Here is another example: DelCo Republicans are trying to hold a seat being vacated by longterm incumbent Nick Micozzie (R) that is trending Democratic, but the DelCo Dems probably handed them a hand grenade by nominating a candidate that might be in violation of several portions of the Elections Code. Honestly I don't know why the DelCo Dems could not find a strong candidate who would not have questions regarding living in the district or voter fraud.

Discuss :: (228 Comments)
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