First today, there is a single legislative special. AL-LD-10 is an R+5 seat in southwest Huntsville around the Redstone Arsenal and the nearby suburb of Madison. 2022 nominee Marilyn Lands (D), who took 45% two years ago, will face off with Madison councilman Teddy Powell (R). The race is highly competitive and there is no clear favorite; Democrats are targeting it heavily and optimistic about their chances, though the seat is GOP-leaning at baseline. Now today’s news:
Senate:
NJ-Sen: TV news reporter Alex Zdan (R) dropped his US Senate run yesterday at the filing deadline. Real Estate Developer Curtis Bashaw (R) and Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (R) are the major GOP contenders remaining; Bashaw is looking like the front-runner. Zdan had secured The Line (TM) in Passaic and Monmouth Counties, and those counties will be released to choose between his rivals. Here is a table of Line results on the GOP side. Rep. Andy Kim (D) is now looking like the presumptive Dem nominee to succeed retiring Sen. “Gold Bar” Bob Menendez (D).
UT-Sen: An internal from “Conservative Outsider PAC”, which is backing Heir Force Gen. Brent Hatch (R) in the primary to succeed Sen. Mitt Romney (R), has Rep. John Curtis (R) leading Hatch 18-14. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R) takes 8% and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R) takes 3%. A whopping 52% are undecided. Skier Caroline Gleich (D) is the likely Democratic nominee.
Governor:
IN-Gov: Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) says he will make an endorsement in the race to succeed him as Governor ahead of the May primary, but has not decided whom he will endorse. Sen. Mike Braun (R), LG Suzanne Crouch (R), Holcomb administration official Brad Chambers (R), ex-AG Curtis Hill (R), and 2011 Fort Wayne Mayoral candidate Eric Doden (R) are the major contenders in the GOP primary; Crouch and Chambers are generally seen as the only realistic possibilities for Holcomb’s backing, and he may be waiting to see which of them has the best chance of toppling the front-running Braun. Ex-elected State Superintendent Jennifer McCormick (R=>D) is the Dem nominee.
ND-Gov: State Sen. Merrill Piepkorn (D) of Fargo has filed to run for Governor, giving North Dakota Democrats a credible candidate in the uphill race to succeed retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R). 2022 State Senate nominee Travis Hipsher (D), who was not running a particularly credible campaign, had to date been the only Democrat in the race. Republicans have a primary between US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) and LG Tammy Miller (R) to succeed Burgum.
House:
CA-45, Sacramento-Mayor: California’s counting is finally (almost) over and we have a resolution in two of the three largest outstanding races. Attorney Derek Tran (D) has narrowly outpaced Garden Grove councilwoman Kim Nguyen (D) for the right to take on Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in the purple western Orange County CA-45, while epidemiologist Flo Cofer (D) and State Rep. Kevin McCarty (D) will advance to the general to succeed retiring Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg (D). The race for CA-16 remains uncalled, with Santa Clara County supervisor Joe Simitian (D) holding a 1-vote lead on State Rep. Evan Low (D) for the right to advance with ex-San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D).
CO-4: Colorado Republicans will hold their convention this Thursday to select a special election nominee to succeed resigned Rep. Ken Buck (R) in this conservative seat covering the eastern plains and a crescent around the Denver exurbs. We will have a full preview of the race tomorrow.
CO-5: State Rep. and Colorado GOP chair Dave Williams (R) secured over 70% of the vote at this weekend’s party convention in this conservative Colorado Springs seat, and was thus the only candidate to emerge from the convention with a ballot spot. The antiestablishment conservative Williams will face establishment conservative 2008 candidate and consultant Jeff Crank (R), who has been approved for the ballot with petition signatures, in the primary. It is possible that other candidates, including State Sen. Bob Gardner (R) could make it on to the ballot by petition signatures.
DE-AL: Gov. John Carney (D) is endorsing his former cabinet official Eugene Young (D) in the primary to succeed Senate candidate Rep. Lisa Blunt-Rochester (D). Most state and national Democrats have endorsed Young’s rival, State Sen. Sarah McBride (D), who is transgender.
NY-1: Expelled ex-Rep. George Santos is leaving the GOP to become an independent and will challenge Rep. Nick LaLota (R) in the general rather than the GOP primary. Santos is unlikely to be a major factor in the race for the light-red eastern Long Island seat.
VA-5: State Sen. John McGuire (R) has secured an endorsement from Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), which is notable in that Kiggans is endorsing directly against her delegation colleague, incumbent Bob Good (R). The ultra-antiestablishment Good has had a poor relationship with many of his House colleagues. McGuire’s primary challenge for this medium-red Charlottesville and rural Southside Virginia seat is also backed by forces loyal to ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R); Good was one of the eight members who brought down McCarthy’s speakership last year.
WI-8: ICYMI, last Friday Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) announced he will resign on April 19th; he had previously decided not to seek re-election. The timing of his resignation means there will not be a special election before November. Ex-State Sen. Roger Roth (R) and State Sen. Andre Jacque (R) are the major candidates for this medium-red Green Bay and Appleton area seat so far, but Trump campaign aide and professional online troll Alex Bruesewitz (R-FL) is also considering a bid.
State & Local:
MT-Aud, MT-PSC, MT-Leg: 9 candidates were disqualified from Montana’s ballot due to not filing the required disclosure paperwork. The most notable disqualification is State Rep. Steve Gunderson (R) being knocked off the primary ballot for State Auditor (Insurance Commissioner), but 8 other candidates for that office, PSC, and legislature were also impacted. Gunderson’s disqualification means that PSC member Jim Brown (R) is now the heavy favorite for the nomination to the Auditor post to succeed congressional candidate Troy Downing (R). 2022 PSC nominee John Repke (D) is running for Democrats.
NE-SD-33: Nebraska State Sen. Steve Halloran (R) of Hastings is facing calls for his resignation after he inserted a colleague’s name into a reading of a book’s graphic description of sexual assault. Halloran was reading from the book in a attempt to make an argument about keeping such material out of schools.
TX-Leg: State Rep. Tom Oliverson (R) of suburban Houston will launch a bid for Speaker, becoming the first open challenger to incumbent Dade Phelan (R). Phelan is facing a primary runoff in May for his Beaumont-area legislative seat after drawing the ire of AG Ken Paxton’s (R) network with a failed push for Paxton’s impeachment. The move is all the more notable as Oliverson had previously been considered a Phelan ally.
Chesapeake-Mayor: Former NFL player and Chesapeake, VA councilman Don Carey (R=>D) will challenge Mayor Rick West (R) in this fall’s election to lead the purple Hampton Roads mega-suburb of 250K. Carey is also switching parties from Republican to Democrat to do so; while the election is non-partisan, the move could give Carey Democratic support against West.
International:
India: A poll has the center-right NDA of PM Narendra Modi leading the center-left INDIA alliance 46-39, with seat projections projecting the NDA to retain its majority. The results for this spring’s election, which will occur on 7 dates in April and May, will be released in June.
Mexico: A poll of Mexico’s Presidential election has left-wing Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum leading center-right Senator Xochitl Galvez 51-37.