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Political Roundup for March 28, 2024

Senate:

MD-Sen: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D) has announced his endorsement of Prince George’s CE Angela Alsobrooks (D) over fellow Rep. David Trone (D).

MI-Sen: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) has a small lead on ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in a possible matchup in a Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll. Slotkin leads Rogers 41-39. She has larger leads on other potential candidates, leading businessman Sandy Pensler (R) 42-37, ex-Rep. Peter Meijer (R) 42-34, and ex-Rep. Justin Amash (R) 43-35.

WI-Sen: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) has a narrow lead on businessman and likely Republican nominee Eric Hovde (R) in a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll. Baldwin leads Hovde 45-42 in the poll.

RIP: Former Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) of Connecticut has died at the age of 82. Lieberman was elected to two terms as Attorney General before defeating Sen. Lowell Weicker (R) in 1988 in an election which many Republicans openly supported him over the liberal Weicker. He served 4 terms in the Senate, including running successfully as an independent in 2006 after losing the Democratic nomination to now-Gov. Ned Lamont (D). Lieberman was the VP running mate to Al Gore in 2000 and also made an unsuccessful run for president in 2004. He crossed parties to support his friend and fellow Sen. John McCain (R) for president in 2008. He had been co-chairing the No Labels group and had recently announced the selection process for the group’s presidential nomination.

House:

ME-2: Donald Trump has endorsed state Rep. and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) over fellow state Rep. Mike Soboleski (R). The winner of the Republican primary will face Rep. Jared Golden (D).

NH-2: Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) announced her retirement yesterday. See our post from yesterday on who might run to succeed her.

ND-AL: Ex-state Sen. Tom Campbell (R) is dropping out of the race for Congress. Campbell originally planned to run for governor, then dropped down to the congressional race. Campbell’s exit leaves PSC member Julie Fedorchak (R), ex-state Rep. Rick Becker (R), and former State Dept. official Alex Balazs (R) in the Republican primary. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) is running for governor.

Governor:

CA-Gov. 2026: A race that is two years away has already drawn its 4th candidate. Former State Controller Betty Yee (D) has launched her campaign. She joins LG Eleni Kounalakis (D), state Schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond (D) and state Sen. Toni Atkins (D) in the race. AG Rob Bonta (D) is also considering the race and failed Senate candidate Rep. Katie Porter (D) is mentioned as a possible candidate. No Republicans have yet indicated interest in the race. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will be term-limited.

State & local:

Omaha-Mayor: Mayor Jean Stothert (R) has announced she plans to run for an unprecedented 4th term next year. One Democrat has a campaign announcement scheduled and two others are thought to be planning to run. Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing (D) is beginning his campaign next week. Ewing came within 2 points of beating then-Rep. Lee Terry (R) as the Democratic nominee for NE-2 in 2012. State Sen. Mike McDonnell (D) and City Council President Pete Festersen (D) are also said to be planning campaigns. McDonnell was recently censured by the state Democratic Party for his support last year of a bill that enacted stronger abortion restrictions and limited gender-affirmation medical treatments.

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CO-4 Special GOP Convention Preview & Open Thread

Thursday, there will be a GOP special election nominating convention in Colorado. Our preview is here and we will update this thread with results.

CO-4 (R): CO-4 is an R+13 seat covering Colorado’s rural eastern plains as well as a crescent around the northern, eastern, and southern Denver exurbs. The seat will have a special GOP convention due to the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R) several weeks ago. The nominee chosen here will only be for the June special election to fill out the term, which will occur on the same day as the contested June 25th primary for the full term. Carpetbagging Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) is seeking the full term but has decided not to run in the special election and is advocating that a placeholder be named (Boebert would leave her CO-3 seat open for the rest of the year if she won the special election). Somewhat surprisingly, Boebert is joined in that position by one of her major rivals, talk radio host Deborah Flora (R), who was thought to have a real shot at winning the special election nomination herself. Information on this contest is sparse as it will be decided by a small group of insiders, but as best I can tell there are nine Republicans seeking the nomination and four major contenders.

The first big question is whether the committee will back a placeholder or a candidate who is seeking the full term. If they go the former route, the nomination will likely go to ex-Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (R), who is the major placeholder candidate. Lopez served as Mayor of the exurban town of Parker in the 90s; it was then a small town but is now a large exurb. Lopez lost a run for State Senate in 1998 and largely left politics before becoming a low-level official in the Trump Small Business Administration. He has since lost two races for Governor in 2018 and 2022, taking a stronger than expected 46% in the 2022 primary. Lopez is not running for the full term; as a result, he seems to have some implicit support from Boebert’s and Flora’s networks. However, nominating him would implicitly be a capitulation to Boebert. That stance seems unlikely for a group of insiders who are likely to think poorly of Boebert’s cross-state carpetbagging, and are probably much more inclined to try and give one of her rivals a leg up in the primary.

Logan County commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg (R) is a farmer who began his political career with election to a rural plains State House seat in 2006. Sonnenberg served 8 years in that post before moving up to the State Senate in 2014, serving another 8 years. As he termed out in 2022, Sonnenberg won a seat on his local county commission in the Sterling area. Sonnenberg has been a mainstream establishment conservative in his political career. He has collected the strongest institutional support for this race, capped off by an endorsement from ex-US Sen. Cory Gardner (R). He had raised $150K by the end of 2023 (the most current FEC filings available).

State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R) is a veteran and cattle rancher. He was initially appointed to a rural eastern plains State House seat in 2019 and has served 5 years, rising to Minority Whip in the most recent session. Holtorf entered the race before Buck retired and has been running on a hardcore antiestablishment conservative platform. He had raised $110K by the end of 2023, including $40K of self-funding, and seems to have strong grassroots support from antiestablishment conservatives in the rural plains.

Ex-State Sen. Ted Harvey (R) is a career GOP operative and think tank executive. He lost primary runs for the State House in 1992 and State Senate in 1998, but was appointed to fill a vacancy in a State House seat in Denver’s southern exurbs in 2001. Harvey served 5 years before moving up to the State Senate in 2006, serving 8 years in that post before terming out in 2014. Along the way, Harvey took third place in a primary for Congress in CO-6 in 2008. Since leaving office, Harvey has run a major GOP SuperPAC with a 7-figure budget. Harvey has been an establishment-friendly ideological conservative in office. He had only raised $40K for this race by the New Year, but should obviously have connections to raise more. Harvey also has some institutional support from the exurban Douglas County portion of the district.

The other candidates seem longer-shots. Congressional staffer Chris Phelen (R) worked his way up the ranks to become CoS for now-retiring Colorado Rep. Doug Lamborn (R). He is running as an establishment conservative and might have some institutional support from Lamborn’s network, though Lamborn is far from a powerhouse in the state party. 2018 CO-2 nominee Peter Yu (R) is a mortgage broker who was the sacrificial-lamb nominee in the deep-blue district in 2018. He is running as an establishment conservative and has self-funded $250K. Veteran Floyd Trujillo (R) is a businessman in the energy industry, and is running as an establishment conservative. And Trump aide Mariel Bailey (R) served in a low-level position in the Trump White House. The final candidate has been indicted on felony stalking and harassment charges and is not going to receive the nomination. While it is not out of the question one of them could catch fire with a great speech to the convention, none of these candidates have strong institutional support and they seem unlikely to be picked in the insider-dominated format.

Overall, the major contenders are Sonnenberg, Holtorf, and Harvey, with Lopez as a potential wildcard. CW seems to be that Sonnenberg is the clear front-runner, but Lopez could have a real chance to pull the upset if all of Sonnenberg’s rivals unite around him as a placeholder candidate, and Holtorf and Harvey can not be counted out either. Regardless of who it is, the nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the special election for the deep-red seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

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NH-2: Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) Will Not Seek Reelection

Kuster told WMUR she will not run for reelection in 2024.

This opens up NH-2, a D+2 district that Kuster never fully locked down in her 6 terms. The district covers the western half of the state, including two of the three largest cities (Nashua and Concord), a stretch of very liberal towns from Keene to Hanover along the Vermont border, and conservative territory along the Massachusetts border, in the rural central part of the state, and in the North Country. Like much of rural New England, Trump appealed here in theory (losing by 3 in 2016) but not in practice (losing by 9 in 2020), and the district will be difficult, although not impossible, for Republicans to flip with him atop the ticket in 2024.

Democrats have focused today on former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern (D), who lost a close NH-Gov race in 2016 and appears to have been waiting out Kuster’s retirement. Cinde Warmington (D), who now holds the same council seat, is running for NH-Gov but could drop down. Other names to watch could include author Jodi Picoult (D), and State Sens. Becky Whitley (D), Donovan Fenton (D), and Suzanne Prentiss (D).

On the Republican side, the biggest name currently running is probably 2022 candidate Lily Tang Williams (R), who took 25% and 3rd place in the primary. There are four others running, who all appear to be Some Dude level.

For potential candidates on the Republican side, the biggest name by far is retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R), but he is unlikely to run, to say the least. 2022 Senate candidate and former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), currently running an uphill campaign for Governor, lives in the seat and could switch. From the prior candidate file, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns (R) and former Keene Mayor George Hansel (R) ran in 2022.

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Political Roundup for March 27th, 2024

National:

Bloomberg/MC Poll:  The latest set of Bloomberg/MC polls had Biden recovering in swing states from December deficits.  Biden is leading by 1 point in Wisconsin and is tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Trump retains the lead in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina after leading in all 7 states in their December poll.

CNBC: A national CNBC poll finds a close race with Trump leading 46-45 over Biden, down from a 48-42 Trump lead in December.

RFK Jr: RFK Jr has announced his VP pick, Nicole Shanahan, a Bay Area Lawyer, and left-wing activist most notable for being Google Founder Sergey Brin’s ex-wife.  This likely solves one of RFK Jr’s biggest problems as Shanahan likely has at least 10-figures of wealth to potentially spend on his campaign, though picking someone who is very clearly on the left side of the political spectrum might hem him in a bit from the sort of mavericky-wild card image that he’s been going for as a 3rd-party candidate lately.  It remains to be seen if he can make the ballot in many states, though his VP’s money can certainly help with that.

Texas: A Marist poll has Trump up 10 points in Texas, 55-44, and Ted Cruz up on Democrat Collin Allred 51-45.  Notably this poll continues the bizarre trend of young voters breaking *hard* for Trump in certain polls, as he leads with the youngest voters 57-43 here.  The post-mortem on polling this year is going to be fascinating to see, as this is far from an isolated trend, and we’re either going to see a political revolution in November or a whole lot of pollsters with massive egg on their faces.

Congress:

AZ-Sen: Kari Lake has effectively conceded the defamation case against her brought by Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer over Lake’s repeated accusations of fraud in her 2022 election loss.  She has asked the court to just tell her an amount that she must pay to get it over with and out of the headlines since they might damage her campaign for the US Senate, and that is a depressing sentence to have to type out.  This might be tactically smart for her in the long run, but all but admitting everything you said after that race was indeed a lie as opposed to the typical “Its not libel if I believed it” defense looks bad for her, and will absolutely come up in the November election regardless.

FL-15: Freshman Florida Rep Laurel Lee is facing down the prospect of a GOP primary challenge for backing DeSantis over Trump this year.  Naturally her possible opponents are . . . Laura Loomer and “DC Draino” Rogan O’Handley, because why bother with candidates when we can have internet celebrities?  Its unclear how much danger Lee is in given that Trump’s record at picking off Republicans who opposed him without going full #NEVERTRUMP is middling at best.

MD-Sen: Anyone thinking Alsobrooks wasn’t going to hit Trone on his “Jigaboo” comment is wrong.  The D primary for this seat continues to heat up, with Alsobrook releasing a list of CBC endorsers and attacking him over the comment he made.  Trone has said he misspoke and actually wanted to say “Bugaboo”, but Alsobrooks is having none of it.

NY-16: New York’s resident volunteer fire marshal Jamaal Bowman has walked back his initial comments in October last year that Hamas’s murder of babies and systemic rape was merely Israeli “propaganda”.  He probably figured out that the hours of video footage (we live in the age of terrorists live-streaming their atrocities unfortunately) made that statement more than a little awkward, and with a competitive primary coming up he needed to put some distance between himself and those comments.

State & Local:

CA-Gov:  The 2nd recall attempt against Gavin Newsom can now start collecting signatures.  They need over a million to qualify and have until September to collect them.  On one hand Newsom is enough of a Conservative Boogie Man to probably get those signatures in the end, but on the other hand I’m not sure why this is even happening beyond spite.  If it does go forward I’d be shocked if its ever competitive, though it might get him 1 election closer to tying Hiram Johnson’s record for most California statewide election wins.

Cook-DA: The current tally for the Democratic primary for Cook County DA shows a 1,598 vote lead for Burke over Harris.  There are reportedly 53,000+ outstanding VBM ballots left in Chicago (not all of which are valid), so this race could go either way, though Harris has been gradually closing in on Burke as the later ballots came in.

MO-St-Sec: Republican State Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman has dropped out of her bid for the open MO-3 seat and is instead running for Missouri Secretary of State.  Coleman joins an even more crowded field in this race, including Missouri State House Speaker Dean Plocher (who also announced he was swapping to this race earlier this week), and some other state legislators.  Its unclear what prompted the move, though it might be related to Ploucher’s move as he is also under investigation for corruption.

International:

Venezuela: Normally we don’t cover news from foreign “Democracies”, but this is a little too funny.  Maduro’s Venezuelan regime has come under fire for basically removing all opposing candidates from the ballot after it promised not to so ahead of its election.  So they reluctantly allowed one other candidate on the ballot so they can rig the election the old-fashioned way.

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RRH Elections March 2024 Senate & Gubernatorial Rankings

Today we are doing a two-for-one update of both our Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings. Here are this month’s maps and big boards:

Senate:

Safe DLikely DLeans DTossupLeans RLikely RSafe R
CA (OPEN)
CT (Murphy)
DE (OPEN)
HI (Hirono)
ME (King*)
MA (Warren)
MN (Klobuchar)
NY (Gillibrand)
RI (Whitehouse)
VT (Sanders*)
WA (Cantwell)
MD (OPEN)
NJ (OPEN)
NM (Heinrich)
VA (Kaine)
AZ (OPEN)
MI (OPEN)
NV (Rosen)
PA (Casey)
WI (Baldwin)
MT (Tester)
OH (Brown)
TX (Cruz)FL (R. Scott)
MO (Hawley)
IN (OPEN)
MS (Wicker)
NE-F (Fischer)
NE-R (Ricketts)
ND (Cramer)
TN (Blackburn)
UT (OPEN)
WV (OPEN)
WY (Barrasso)

Bold denotes a projected flip; Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. (*) denotes a Democratic-caucusing Independent.

RRH Elections has made the following 3 changes to our Senate Ratings since our last post in January, all in Republicans’ favor:

Indiana Safe R from Likely R || Maryland Likely D from Safe D || New Mexico Likely D from Safe D

These Rankings mean RRH Elections is projecting a net shift in Senate seats of between R+1 and R+3.

Governor:

Safe DLikely DLeans DTossupLeans RLikely RSafe R
DE (OPEN)
WA (OPEN)
NJ ’25 (OPEN)NH (OPEN)
NC (OPEN)
VA ’25 (OPEN)
IN (OPEN)
MO (OPEN)
VT (Scott)
MT (Gianforte)
ND (OPEN)
UT (Cox)
WV (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip parties; Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. RRH Elections has made the following change to our Gubernatorial Ratings since our last update in December, in Republicans’ favor:

Montana Safe R from Likely R

These Ratings mean RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats in 2024-2025 of between R+1 and D+2.

Flip over for the full narratives!

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