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Political Roundup for March 26, 2024

First today, there is a single legislative special. AL-LD-10 is an R+5 seat in southwest Huntsville around the Redstone Arsenal and the nearby suburb of Madison. 2022 nominee Marilyn Lands (D), who took 45% two years ago, will face off with Madison councilman Teddy Powell (R). The race is highly competitive and there is no clear favorite; Democrats are targeting it heavily and optimistic about their chances, though the seat is GOP-leaning at baseline. Now today’s news:

Senate:

NJ-Sen: TV news reporter Alex Zdan (R) dropped his US Senate run yesterday at the filing deadline. Real Estate Developer Curtis Bashaw (R) and Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (R) are the major GOP contenders remaining; Bashaw is looking like the front-runner. Zdan had secured The Line (TM) in Passaic and Monmouth Counties, and those counties will be released to choose between his rivals. Here is a table of Line results on the GOP side. Rep. Andy Kim (D) is now looking like the presumptive Dem nominee to succeed retiring Sen. “Gold Bar” Bob Menendez (D).

UT-Sen: An internal from “Conservative Outsider PAC”, which is backing Heir Force Gen. Brent Hatch (R) in the primary to succeed Sen. Mitt Romney (R), has Rep. John Curtis (R) leading Hatch 18-14. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R) takes 8% and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R) takes 3%. A whopping 52% are undecided. Skier Caroline Gleich (D) is the likely Democratic nominee.

Governor:

IN-Gov: Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) says he will make an endorsement in the race to succeed him as Governor ahead of the May primary, but has not decided whom he will endorse. Sen. Mike Braun (R), LG Suzanne Crouch (R), Holcomb administration official Brad Chambers (R), ex-AG Curtis Hill (R), and 2011 Fort Wayne Mayoral candidate Eric Doden (R) are the major contenders in the GOP primary; Crouch and Chambers are generally seen as the only realistic possibilities for Holcomb’s backing, and he may be waiting to see which of them has the best chance of toppling the front-running Braun. Ex-elected State Superintendent Jennifer McCormick (R=>D) is the Dem nominee.

ND-Gov: State Sen. Merrill Piepkorn (D) of Fargo has filed to run for Governor, giving North Dakota Democrats a credible candidate in the uphill race to succeed retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R). 2022 State Senate nominee Travis Hipsher (D), who was not running a particularly credible campaign, had to date been the only Democrat in the race. Republicans have a primary between US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) and LG Tammy Miller (R) to succeed Burgum.

House:

CA-45, Sacramento-Mayor: California’s counting is finally (almost) over and we have a resolution in two of the three largest outstanding races. Attorney Derek Tran (D) has narrowly outpaced Garden Grove councilwoman Kim Nguyen (D) for the right to take on Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in the purple western Orange County CA-45, while epidemiologist Flo Cofer (D) and State Rep. Kevin McCarty (D) will advance to the general to succeed retiring Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg (D). The race for CA-16 remains uncalled, with Santa Clara County supervisor Joe Simitian (D) holding a 1-vote lead on State Rep. Evan Low (D) for the right to advance with ex-San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D).

CO-4: Colorado Republicans will hold their convention this Thursday to select a special election nominee to succeed resigned Rep. Ken Buck (R) in this conservative seat covering the eastern plains and a crescent around the Denver exurbs. We will have a full preview of the race tomorrow.

CO-5: State Rep. and Colorado GOP chair Dave Williams (R) secured over 70% of the vote at this weekend’s party convention in this conservative Colorado Springs seat, and was thus the only candidate to emerge from the convention with a ballot spot. The antiestablishment conservative Williams will face establishment conservative 2008 candidate and consultant Jeff Crank (R), who has been approved for the ballot with petition signatures, in the primary. It is possible that other candidates, including State Sen. Bob Gardner (R) could make it on to the ballot by petition signatures.

DE-AL: Gov. John Carney (D) is endorsing his former cabinet official Eugene Young (D) in the primary to succeed Senate candidate Rep. Lisa Blunt-Rochester (D). Most state and national Democrats have endorsed Young’s rival, State Sen. Sarah McBride (D), who is transgender.

NY-1: Expelled ex-Rep. George Santos is leaving the GOP to become an independent and will challenge Rep. Nick LaLota (R) in the general rather than the GOP primary. Santos is unlikely to be a major factor in the race for the light-red eastern Long Island seat.

VA-5: State Sen. John McGuire (R) has secured an endorsement from Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), which is notable in that Kiggans is endorsing directly against her delegation colleague, incumbent Bob Good (R). The ultra-antiestablishment Good has had a poor relationship with many of his House colleagues. McGuire’s primary challenge for this medium-red Charlottesville and rural Southside Virginia seat is also backed by forces loyal to ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R); Good was one of the eight members who brought down McCarthy’s speakership last year.

WI-8: ICYMI, last Friday Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) announced he will resign on April 19th; he had previously decided not to seek re-election. The timing of his resignation means there will not be a special election before November. Ex-State Sen. Roger Roth (R) and State Sen. Andre Jacque (R) are the major candidates for this medium-red Green Bay and Appleton area seat so far, but Trump campaign aide and professional online troll Alex Bruesewitz (R-FL) is also considering a bid.

State & Local:

MT-Aud, MT-PSC, MT-Leg: 9 candidates were disqualified from Montana’s ballot due to not filing the required disclosure paperwork. The most notable disqualification is State Rep. Steve Gunderson (R) being knocked off the primary ballot for State Auditor (Insurance Commissioner), but 8 other candidates for that office, PSC, and legislature were also impacted. Gunderson’s disqualification means that PSC member Jim Brown (R) is now the heavy favorite for the nomination to the Auditor post to succeed congressional candidate Troy Downing (R). 2022 PSC nominee John Repke (D) is running for Democrats.

NE-SD-33: Nebraska State Sen. Steve Halloran (R) of Hastings is facing calls for his resignation after he inserted a colleague’s name into a reading of a book’s graphic description of sexual assault. Halloran was reading from the book in a attempt to make an argument about keeping such material out of schools.

TX-Leg: State Rep. Tom Oliverson (R) of suburban Houston will launch a bid for Speaker, becoming the first open challenger to incumbent Dade Phelan (R). Phelan is facing a primary runoff in May for his Beaumont-area legislative seat after drawing the ire of AG Ken Paxton’s (R) network with a failed push for Paxton’s impeachment. The move is all the more notable as Oliverson had previously been considered a Phelan ally.

Chesapeake-Mayor: Former NFL player and Chesapeake, VA councilman Don Carey (R=>D) will challenge Mayor Rick West (R) in this fall’s election to lead the purple Hampton Roads mega-suburb of 250K. Carey is also switching parties from Republican to Democrat to do so; while the election is non-partisan, the move could give Carey Democratic support against West.

International:

India: A poll has the center-right NDA of PM Narendra Modi leading the center-left INDIA alliance 46-39, with seat projections projecting the NDA to retain its majority. The results for this spring’s election, which will occur on 7 dates in April and May, will be released in June.

Mexico: A poll of Mexico’s Presidential election has left-wing Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum leading center-right Senator Xochitl Galvez 51-37.

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Political Roundup for March 25, 2024

About this weekend’s Louisiana elections…

– Former Louisiana and Shreveport Police Chief Henry Whitehorn (D) defeated John Nickelson (R) in the redo of the Caddo Parish Sheriff’s race. Whitehorn will be the first African-American Sheriff in this Shreveport-area Parish.
– Former President Donald Trump (R) and President Biden (D) both handily won the Louisiana Presidential Preference Primary, taking 90% and 86%, respectively.

Now, for a brief look at the rest of the political news you may have missed over the weekend:

Congress:
AK-Sen: She’s not ruling out leaving the party due to Trump! Alaska’s Hamlet on the Cook Inlet, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski (R – at least for now) had previously stated she will not vote for former President Donald Trump (R). Now, in a CNN interview, Murkowski is not ruling out leaving the Republican Party should the GOP become “a party of Donald Trump.” Stay tuned for more drama should Trump win the presidency and Republicans control the Senate, I guess.

CA-Sen: The tax man says the former Dodger is a tax dodger! California U.S. Senate candidate and former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) disclosed that he owes between 350,000 and 750,000 in back state and federal taxes. Garvey will face Congressman and truth dodger Adam Schiff (D) in November for the seat being vacated by current appointed Senator Laphonsa Butler (D), who was named to the post after the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein (D).

MD-Sen: Was he drunk when he said it? Congressman, booze man and Maryland U.S. Senate candidate David Trone (D) is apologizing for using a racist word that rhymes with “bugaboo” at a Congressional hearing. Trone is the owner of Total Wines and Spirits. Coincidental or not, 5 Democratic African-American Congressman endorsed Trone’s African-American primary opponent, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D), over the weekend. The winner of the Trone-Alsobrooks primary matchup on May 14 will likely face former Governor Larry Hogan (R) in November.

MI-Sen/MI-8: She’s dropping down from running for Senate to run for Congress! Michigan State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder (R) is ending her race for U.S. Senate. She will run for the open seat in mid-Michigan’s MI-8 instead. MI-8 runs from Flint to the Bay Cities of Saginaw, Midland and Bay City. It is currently held by Dan Kildee (D), who is not seeking reelection. Snyder lives outside the district near Ann Arbor. Paul Junge (R), last seen losing to Kildee by about 10 points in 2022, and Jason Hudson (R) have also filed to run in MI-8 as Republicans. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D), State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), State Board of Education President Pam Pugh (D), Former Flint Mayor Matt Collier (D) and some dude Daniel Moilanen (D) are running in MI-8 as Democrats. The open Michigan U.S. Senate race is even more crowded on the Republican side, with former Congressmen Mike Rogers (R), Peter Meijer (R) and Justin Amash (R) and businessman Sandy Pensler (R), among others, announcing Republican bids. Rogers recently received former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Democrat Elisa Slotkin (D) is the favorite to win the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination over actor Hill Harper (D) and a some dude. The Michigan primary is August 6.

NJ-Sen: She’s no longer running! After failing to secure The LineTM in most counties, New Jersey First Lady and Heir Force Major General Tammy Murphy (D) has dropped out of the New Jersey U.S. Senate race. Murphy did not endorse any other candidate on her way out. Congressman Andy Kim (D) is now the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination for the Garden State’s Senate seat, which is (sort of) being vacated by indicted Senator Bob “Gold Bar” Menendez (D). Menendez says he isn’t seeking reelection on the Democratic line, but could mount an independent bid if his name is cleared. Pigs could also fly, too. Former Newark school board member Lawrence Hamm (D), activist Patricia Campos-Medina (D), and some dude Patrick Merrill (D) are longshots on the Democratic side. Businessman Curtis Bashaw (R), Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (R) and former reporter Alex Zdan (R) are the top contenders on the Republican side (though Zdan is likely dropping out this morning, per the New Jersey Globe).

PA-Sen: They’re the only ones running! The fields in the Pennsylvania Senate race have been totally cleared: Current U.S, Senator Bob Casey (D) and former hedge fund manager David McCormick (R) will be the standard bearers for their respective parties after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court removed the last remaining minor candidate running against McCormick from the April 23 primary ballot due to signature irregularities. A minor Democratic and minor Republican minor candidate had previously been ruled ineligible to run by the courts due to paperwork irregularities.

WV-Sen: Baby Dog will likely go to Washington! A new Emerson College/WOWK 13 NEWS poll of the West Virginia Republican U.S. Senate Primary gives Governor Jim Justice (R) a commanding 54-17% lead over WV-2 Congressman Alex Mooney (R). 22% were undecided. The Republican primary winner will face whichever sacrificial lamb wins the Democratic primary between Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D), “Mitch McConnell” and “China People” enthusiast Don Blankenship (R–>D) and political activist Zach Shrewsbury (D). The West Virginia primary is May 14.

Statewide:
NJ-Gov: He wants to be the Ron DeSantis of New Jersey – well, sort of! Politico profiles Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (D), who is running for New Jersey Governor in 2025. Baraka says he wants to be the progressive version of Ron DeSantis (R) or Greg Abbott (R), pushing New Jersey even further left than it already is through even more liberal policies, like reparations. When speaking of other New Jersey politicians Baraka proclaimed: “These people have been giving us Froot Loops and Apple Jacks and telling us it’s different cereal. Like, come on, y’all.” Okay, then – Baraka doesn’t know his cereals! No word on whether making New Jersey even more of a liberal laboratory would cause more Jerseyites to flee the not-such-a-Garden State for greener pastures.

WV-Gov: Something can beat the West Virginia Heir Force! The Emerson College/WOWK 13 NEWS poll mentioned above also polled the West Virginia Republican Gubernatorial race. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) leads his two Heir Force opponents, auto dealer and Congresswoman’s son Chris Miller (R) and lawyer, former state representative and Senator’s son Moore Capito (R) 33-16-14%, respectively. Secretary of State Mac Warner was next at 6%. 29% were undecided. The winner will face Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D) and disabled Afghan War Veteran Chase Linko-Looper (Mountain Party) in November.

OR-AG: Finally, there’s some really useful information on an Attorney General candidate’s website – if you’re into foreign online lotteries! Republican Oregon Attorney General candidate Michael Cross’ (R) website includes a page with pertinent information about the Indonesian online lottery… in Indonesian. Cross, who lost the Oregon AG’s race in 2020, will face Will Lathrop (R) in the May 21 Oregon primary.

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Weekend Open Thread for March 22-24, 2024

Happy Friday. We will have our newest set of Senate & Gubernatorial ratings this weekend. But first, we have a Sheriff’s election tomorrow to preview for tomorrow:

Caddo, LA-Sheriff: Caddo Parish, Louisiana, has a population of 235K, covering the city of Shreveport, its western suburbs to the Texas line, and rural territory at the state’s northwest corner. It is roughly 50% Black and 45% White and has a PVI of D+1. This Saturday there is a special election for Sheriff, after the prior one-vote victory was overturned due to ineligible voters casting ballots. Winning the overturned race last year was ex-Shreveport Police Chief Henry Whitehorn (D), a career cop who also served as regional director for the US Marshals service; he is running as a mainstream liberal. Shreveport councilman John Nickelson (R) is an attorney who successfully sued to overturn the prior election; he is running as a mainstream conservative. There is obviously no clear favorite in the special and the race is highly competitive. 

Now this weekend’s questions:

1. It certainly seems like the cost-benefit of serving in Congress has turned negative for many of the chamber’s more serious-minded members. Is there a way to restore the culture of Congress for productive members or is such an effort a fool’s errand?

2. With Manchin, Sinema, and Romney all retiring, who (if anyone) will be the most important potential-swing-votes in the next Senate?

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Political Roundup for March 22, 2024

National/President

Biden-Trump Campaigning/Fundraising: After Super Tuesday, the Biden and Trump campaigns seem to be operating in different universes. The Biden campaign seems extremely high energy and breaking fundraising records with Biden actually hitting the trail while the Trump campaign seems to be low energy and having obvious financial troubles. CNN reports that Trump’s campaign troubles seem to be preventing him from having his signature campaign rallies as one got cancelled in Arizona recently. The difference in energy is a departure from the earlier “hiding” of Biden and Trump hitting the trail. The Biden campaign is mocking Trump’s fundraising woes by labeling him “Broke Don“.

Anxious Democrats: If you have enough Democratic friends you know they are a very anxious bunch, but Politico is reporting what I am seeing in real life… President Joe Biden (D-Subpar Mid-Atlantic Cities) seems to have calmed Democratic nerves with his State of the Union performance and recent activities. The question I have is if he can keep up this pace for 7 more months.

Trump-GOP: The Hill looks at the level of protest votes former President Donald Trump (R-MAGA) continues to receive against him even after all of his serious opposition has dropped out. Some of the results continue to point to weakness in suburban areas, which has been a hallmark of GOP troubles since 2018.

Congress

NJ-Sen: After relentless trolling from the Senate’s lead troll, Senator John Fetterman (D), and being shunned by most of the New Jersey Democratic Party, Senator Bob Menendez (D-Goldfinger) will not seek the Democratic nomination for US Senate. Menendez is leaving open the option to run as an independent, which would require him to file by June.

Spending: The House Freedom Caucus continues to lose control of bodily functions over Speaker Mike Johnson (R)’s continued efforts to fund the government even if it requires Democratic assistance. They seem to be upset that they used all their leverage and got a more conservative speaker whose not willing to play the hostage game. Not enough credit is being given to Johnson for emasculating the group former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy couldn’t shake.

VA-5: Representative Bob Good (R-HFC) is getting a little riled up with some of his colleagues in the House GOP caucus as they are supporting his primary challenger, State Senator John McGuire (R). The endorsement of McGuire by some of Good’s colleagues goes against the request of Speaker Johnson for members to stay out of each other’s primaries, which some of Good’s most ardent supporters aren’t doing themselves.

States

PA-Early Voting: House Speaker Joanna McClinton (D) voiced he support for expanding same day registration and early voting in Pennsylvania. These items appear to be priorities in the 1 seat majority the House Democrats hold, but appear to be DOA in the PA Senate, which is controlled by Republicans.

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Political Roundup for March 21, 2024

Senate:

AZ-Sen: An Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) with a slim lead on former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R). Gallego leads Lake 44-40. When undecideds are asked which candidate they are leaning towards, Gallego leads 51-49.

MD-Sen: A Washington Post/Univ. of Maryland poll has Rep. David Trone (D) leading the Senate primary and ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) leading both candidates in the general election. Trone leads Prince George’s CE Angela Alsobrooks (D) 34-27 in the primary. Hogan leads Trone 49-37 while he leads Alsobrooks 50-36.

NJ-Sen: Jersey City Mayor and 2025 gubernatorial candidate Steven Fulop (D) is switching his Senate endorsement from First Lady Tammy Murphy (D) to Rep. Andy Kim (D). Fulop says that although he had been an early supporter of Murphy he has been disappointed in how her campaign has been conducted and admits he made a mistake in backing her so quickly. He says Kim has proven that he is the better candidate and also called on Murphy to drop out of the race.

WI-Sen: Businessman Scott Mayer (R) has decided against a Senate run and will back businessman Eric Hovde (R) instead. Mayer said he wanted to avoid a “bloody primary”. With several little known candidates the only challengers to Hovde, it likely means he will be the nominee against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

House:

FL-13: Another Democrat has entered the race for Congress against Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R). Communications professional Liz Dolan (D) has announced she is running. Other Democrats running include former local transit authority communications director Whitney Fox (D), former US public health organization senior advisor Sabrina Bousbar (D) and military veterans John Liccione (D) and Mark Weinkratz (D). Two other candidates don’t appear to be running serious campaigns.

LA-6: Quentin Anthony Anderson (D) is running for Congress. Anderson is the son of a well-known local activist. He joins state Sen. and ex-Rep. Cleo Fields (D) and Rep. Garret Graves (R) in running for the new black-majority seat.

OH-2: The campaign of congressional candidate Derek Myers (R) accidentally sent out a concession on Tuesday before the polls had closed. The campaign later retracted the early concession and explained the error, saying it sent the concession to the media instead of preparing it as a draft. The early concession turned out to be prescient-Myers finished last in the 11-candidate Republican primary.

SC-3: Kevin Bishop (R), a former communications director for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is running for Congress. He joins a Republican primary that includes state Rep. Stewart Jones (R), National Guard officer Sheri Biggs (R), and businessman Franky Franco (R). Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) is retiring.