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CO-4 Special GOP Convention Preview & Open Thread

Thursday, there will be a GOP special election nominating convention in Colorado. Our preview is here and we will update this thread with results.

CO-4 (R): CO-4 is an R+13 seat covering Colorado’s rural eastern plains as well as a crescent around the northern, eastern, and southern Denver exurbs. The seat will have a special GOP convention due to the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R) several weeks ago. The nominee chosen here will only be for the June special election to fill out the term, which will occur on the same day as the contested June 25th primary for the full term. Carpetbagging Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) is seeking the full term but has decided not to run in the special election and is advocating that a placeholder be named (Boebert would leave her CO-3 seat open for the rest of the year if she won the special election). Somewhat surprisingly, Boebert is joined in that position by one of her major rivals, talk radio host Deborah Flora (R), who was thought to have a real shot at winning the special election nomination herself. Information on this contest is sparse as it will be decided by a small group of insiders, but as best I can tell there are nine Republicans seeking the nomination and four major contenders.

The first big question is whether the committee will back a placeholder or a candidate who is seeking the full term. If they go the former route, the nomination will likely go to ex-Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (R), who is the major placeholder candidate. Lopez served as Mayor of the exurban town of Parker in the 90s; it was then a small town but is now a large exurb. Lopez lost a run for State Senate in 1998 and largely left politics before becoming a low-level official in the Trump Small Business Administration. He has since lost two races for Governor in 2018 and 2022, taking a stronger than expected 46% in the 2022 primary. Lopez is not running for the full term; as a result, he seems to have some implicit support from Boebert’s and Flora’s networks. However, nominating him would implicitly be a capitulation to Boebert. That stance seems unlikely for a group of insiders who are likely to think poorly of Boebert’s cross-state carpetbagging, and are probably much more inclined to try and give one of her rivals a leg up in the primary.

Logan County commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg (R) is a farmer who began his political career with election to a rural plains State House seat in 2006. Sonnenberg served 8 years in that post before moving up to the State Senate in 2014, serving another 8 years. As he termed out in 2022, Sonnenberg won a seat on his local county commission in the Sterling area. Sonnenberg has been a mainstream establishment conservative in his political career. He has collected the strongest institutional support for this race, capped off by an endorsement from ex-US Sen. Cory Gardner (R). He had raised $150K by the end of 2023 (the most current FEC filings available).

State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R) is a veteran and cattle rancher. He was initially appointed to a rural eastern plains State House seat in 2019 and has served 5 years, rising to Minority Whip in the most recent session. Holtorf entered the race before Buck retired and has been running on a hardcore antiestablishment conservative platform. He had raised $110K by the end of 2023, including $40K of self-funding, and seems to have strong grassroots support from antiestablishment conservatives in the rural plains.

Ex-State Sen. Ted Harvey (R) is a career GOP operative and think tank executive. He lost primary runs for the State House in 1992 and State Senate in 1998, but was appointed to fill a vacancy in a State House seat in Denver’s southern exurbs in 2001. Harvey served 5 years before moving up to the State Senate in 2006, serving 8 years in that post before terming out in 2014. Along the way, Harvey took third place in a primary for Congress in CO-6 in 2008. Since leaving office, Harvey has run a major GOP SuperPAC with a 7-figure budget. Harvey has been an establishment-friendly ideological conservative in office. He had only raised $40K for this race by the New Year, but should obviously have connections to raise more. Harvey also has some institutional support from the exurban Douglas County portion of the district.

The other candidates seem longer-shots. Congressional staffer Chris Phelen (R) worked his way up the ranks to become CoS for now-retiring Colorado Rep. Doug Lamborn (R). He is running as an establishment conservative and might have some institutional support from Lamborn’s network, though Lamborn is far from a powerhouse in the state party. 2018 CO-2 nominee Peter Yu (R) is a mortgage broker who was the sacrificial-lamb nominee in the deep-blue district in 2018. He is running as an establishment conservative and has self-funded $250K. Veteran Floyd Trujillo (R) is a businessman in the energy industry, and is running as an establishment conservative. And Trump aide Mariel Bailey (R) served in a low-level position in the Trump White House. The final candidate has been indicted on felony stalking and harassment charges and is not going to receive the nomination. While it is not out of the question one of them could catch fire with a great speech to the convention, none of these candidates have strong institutional support and they seem unlikely to be picked in the insider-dominated format.

Overall, the major contenders are Sonnenberg, Holtorf, and Harvey, with Lopez as a potential wildcard. CW seems to be that Sonnenberg is the clear front-runner, but Lopez could have a real chance to pull the upset if all of Sonnenberg’s rivals unite around him as a placeholder candidate, and Holtorf and Harvey can not be counted out either. Regardless of who it is, the nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the special election for the deep-red seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

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NH-2: Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) Will Not Seek Reelection

Kuster told WMUR she will not run for reelection in 2024.

This opens up NH-2, a D+2 district that Kuster never fully locked down in her 6 terms. The district covers the western half of the state, including two of the three largest cities (Nashua and Concord), a stretch of very liberal towns from Keene to Hanover along the Vermont border, and conservative territory along the Massachusetts border, in the rural central part of the state, and in the North Country. Like much of rural New England, Trump appealed here in theory (losing by 3 in 2016) but not in practice (losing by 9 in 2020), and the district will be difficult, although not impossible, for Republicans to flip with him atop the ticket in 2024.

Democrats have focused today on former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern (D), who lost a close NH-Gov race in 2016 and appears to have been waiting out Kuster’s retirement. Cinde Warmington (D), who now holds the same council seat, is running for NH-Gov but could drop down. Other names to watch could include author Jodi Picoult (D), and State Sens. Becky Whitley (D), Donovan Fenton (D), and Suzanne Prentiss (D).

On the Republican side, the biggest name currently running is probably 2022 candidate Lily Tang Williams (R), who took 25% and 3rd place in the primary. There are four others running, who all appear to be Some Dude level.

For potential candidates on the Republican side, the biggest name by far is retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R), but he is unlikely to run, to say the least. 2022 Senate candidate and former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), currently running an uphill campaign for Governor, lives in the seat and could switch. From the prior candidate file, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns (R) and former Keene Mayor George Hansel (R) ran in 2022.

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Political Roundup for March 27th, 2024

National:

Bloomberg/MC Poll:  The latest set of Bloomberg/MC polls had Biden recovering in swing states from December deficits.  Biden is leading by 1 point in Wisconsin and is tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Trump retains the lead in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina after leading in all 7 states in their December poll.

CNBC: A national CNBC poll finds a close race with Trump leading 46-45 over Biden, down from a 48-42 Trump lead in December.

RFK Jr: RFK Jr has announced his VP pick, Nicole Shanahan, a Bay Area Lawyer, and left-wing activist most notable for being Google Founder Sergey Brin’s ex-wife.  This likely solves one of RFK Jr’s biggest problems as Shanahan likely has at least 10-figures of wealth to potentially spend on his campaign, though picking someone who is very clearly on the left side of the political spectrum might hem him in a bit from the sort of mavericky-wild card image that he’s been going for as a 3rd-party candidate lately.  It remains to be seen if he can make the ballot in many states, though his VP’s money can certainly help with that.

Texas: A Marist poll has Trump up 10 points in Texas, 55-44, and Ted Cruz up on Democrat Collin Allred 51-45.  Notably this poll continues the bizarre trend of young voters breaking *hard* for Trump in certain polls, as he leads with the youngest voters 57-43 here.  The post-mortem on polling this year is going to be fascinating to see, as this is far from an isolated trend, and we’re either going to see a political revolution in November or a whole lot of pollsters with massive egg on their faces.

Congress:

AZ-Sen: Kari Lake has effectively conceded the defamation case against her brought by Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer over Lake’s repeated accusations of fraud in her 2022 election loss.  She has asked the court to just tell her an amount that she must pay to get it over with and out of the headlines since they might damage her campaign for the US Senate, and that is a depressing sentence to have to type out.  This might be tactically smart for her in the long run, but all but admitting everything you said after that race was indeed a lie as opposed to the typical “Its not libel if I believed it” defense looks bad for her, and will absolutely come up in the November election regardless.

FL-15: Freshman Florida Rep Laurel Lee is facing down the prospect of a GOP primary challenge for backing DeSantis over Trump this year.  Naturally her possible opponents are . . . Laura Loomer and “DC Draino” Rogan O’Handley, because why bother with candidates when we can have internet celebrities?  Its unclear how much danger Lee is in given that Trump’s record at picking off Republicans who opposed him without going full #NEVERTRUMP is middling at best.

MD-Sen: Anyone thinking Alsobrooks wasn’t going to hit Trone on his “Jigaboo” comment is wrong.  The D primary for this seat continues to heat up, with Alsobrook releasing a list of CBC endorsers and attacking him over the comment he made.  Trone has said he misspoke and actually wanted to say “Bugaboo”, but Alsobrooks is having none of it.

NY-16: New York’s resident volunteer fire marshal Jamaal Bowman has walked back his initial comments in October last year that Hamas’s murder of babies and systemic rape was merely Israeli “propaganda”.  He probably figured out that the hours of video footage (we live in the age of terrorists live-streaming their atrocities unfortunately) made that statement more than a little awkward, and with a competitive primary coming up he needed to put some distance between himself and those comments.

State & Local:

CA-Gov:  The 2nd recall attempt against Gavin Newsom can now start collecting signatures.  They need over a million to qualify and have until September to collect them.  On one hand Newsom is enough of a Conservative Boogie Man to probably get those signatures in the end, but on the other hand I’m not sure why this is even happening beyond spite.  If it does go forward I’d be shocked if its ever competitive, though it might get him 1 election closer to tying Hiram Johnson’s record for most California statewide election wins.

Cook-DA: The current tally for the Democratic primary for Cook County DA shows a 1,598 vote lead for Burke over Harris.  There are reportedly 53,000+ outstanding VBM ballots left in Chicago (not all of which are valid), so this race could go either way, though Harris has been gradually closing in on Burke as the later ballots came in.

MO-St-Sec: Republican State Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman has dropped out of her bid for the open MO-3 seat and is instead running for Missouri Secretary of State.  Coleman joins an even more crowded field in this race, including Missouri State House Speaker Dean Plocher (who also announced he was swapping to this race earlier this week), and some other state legislators.  Its unclear what prompted the move, though it might be related to Ploucher’s move as he is also under investigation for corruption.

International:

Venezuela: Normally we don’t cover news from foreign “Democracies”, but this is a little too funny.  Maduro’s Venezuelan regime has come under fire for basically removing all opposing candidates from the ballot after it promised not to so ahead of its election.  So they reluctantly allowed one other candidate on the ballot so they can rig the election the old-fashioned way.

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RRH Elections March 2024 Senate & Gubernatorial Rankings

Today we are doing a two-for-one update of both our Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings. Here are this month’s maps and big boards:

Senate:

Safe DLikely DLeans DTossupLeans RLikely RSafe R
CA (OPEN)
CT (Murphy)
DE (OPEN)
HI (Hirono)
ME (King*)
MA (Warren)
MN (Klobuchar)
NY (Gillibrand)
RI (Whitehouse)
VT (Sanders*)
WA (Cantwell)
MD (OPEN)
NJ (OPEN)
NM (Heinrich)
VA (Kaine)
AZ (OPEN)
MI (OPEN)
NV (Rosen)
PA (Casey)
WI (Baldwin)
MT (Tester)
OH (Brown)
TX (Cruz)FL (R. Scott)
MO (Hawley)
IN (OPEN)
MS (Wicker)
NE-F (Fischer)
NE-R (Ricketts)
ND (Cramer)
TN (Blackburn)
UT (OPEN)
WV (OPEN)
WY (Barrasso)

Bold denotes a projected flip; Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. (*) denotes a Democratic-caucusing Independent.

RRH Elections has made the following 3 changes to our Senate Ratings since our last post in January, all in Republicans’ favor:

Indiana Safe R from Likely R || Maryland Likely D from Safe D || New Mexico Likely D from Safe D

These Rankings mean RRH Elections is projecting a net shift in Senate seats of between R+1 and R+3.

Governor:

Safe DLikely DLeans DTossupLeans RLikely RSafe R
DE (OPEN)
WA (OPEN)
NJ ’25 (OPEN)NH (OPEN)
NC (OPEN)
VA ’25 (OPEN)
IN (OPEN)
MO (OPEN)
VT (Scott)
MT (Gianforte)
ND (OPEN)
UT (Cox)
WV (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip parties; Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. RRH Elections has made the following change to our Gubernatorial Ratings since our last update in December, in Republicans’ favor:

Montana Safe R from Likely R

These Ratings mean RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats in 2024-2025 of between R+1 and D+2.

Flip over for the full narratives!

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Political Roundup for March 26, 2024

First today, there is a single legislative special. AL-LD-10 is an R+5 seat in southwest Huntsville around the Redstone Arsenal and the nearby suburb of Madison. 2022 nominee Marilyn Lands (D), who took 45% two years ago, will face off with Madison councilman Teddy Powell (R). The race is highly competitive and there is no clear favorite; Democrats are targeting it heavily and optimistic about their chances, though the seat is GOP-leaning at baseline. Now today’s news:

Senate:

NJ-Sen: TV news reporter Alex Zdan (R) dropped his US Senate run yesterday at the filing deadline. Real Estate Developer Curtis Bashaw (R) and Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (R) are the major GOP contenders remaining; Bashaw is looking like the front-runner. Zdan had secured The Line (TM) in Passaic and Monmouth Counties, and those counties will be released to choose between his rivals. Here is a table of Line results on the GOP side. Rep. Andy Kim (D) is now looking like the presumptive Dem nominee to succeed retiring Sen. “Gold Bar” Bob Menendez (D).

UT-Sen: An internal from “Conservative Outsider PAC”, which is backing Heir Force Gen. Brent Hatch (R) in the primary to succeed Sen. Mitt Romney (R), has Rep. John Curtis (R) leading Hatch 18-14. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R) takes 8% and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R) takes 3%. A whopping 52% are undecided. Skier Caroline Gleich (D) is the likely Democratic nominee.

Governor:

IN-Gov: Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) says he will make an endorsement in the race to succeed him as Governor ahead of the May primary, but has not decided whom he will endorse. Sen. Mike Braun (R), LG Suzanne Crouch (R), Holcomb administration official Brad Chambers (R), ex-AG Curtis Hill (R), and 2011 Fort Wayne Mayoral candidate Eric Doden (R) are the major contenders in the GOP primary; Crouch and Chambers are generally seen as the only realistic possibilities for Holcomb’s backing, and he may be waiting to see which of them has the best chance of toppling the front-running Braun. Ex-elected State Superintendent Jennifer McCormick (R=>D) is the Dem nominee.

ND-Gov: State Sen. Merrill Piepkorn (D) of Fargo has filed to run for Governor, giving North Dakota Democrats a credible candidate in the uphill race to succeed retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R). 2022 State Senate nominee Travis Hipsher (D), who was not running a particularly credible campaign, had to date been the only Democrat in the race. Republicans have a primary between US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) and LG Tammy Miller (R) to succeed Burgum.

House:

CA-45, Sacramento-Mayor: California’s counting is finally (almost) over and we have a resolution in two of the three largest outstanding races. Attorney Derek Tran (D) has narrowly outpaced Garden Grove councilwoman Kim Nguyen (D) for the right to take on Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in the purple western Orange County CA-45, while epidemiologist Flo Cofer (D) and State Rep. Kevin McCarty (D) will advance to the general to succeed retiring Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg (D). The race for CA-16 remains uncalled, with Santa Clara County supervisor Joe Simitian (D) holding a 1-vote lead on State Rep. Evan Low (D) for the right to advance with ex-San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D).

CO-4: Colorado Republicans will hold their convention this Thursday to select a special election nominee to succeed resigned Rep. Ken Buck (R) in this conservative seat covering the eastern plains and a crescent around the Denver exurbs. We will have a full preview of the race tomorrow.

CO-5: State Rep. and Colorado GOP chair Dave Williams (R) secured over 70% of the vote at this weekend’s party convention in this conservative Colorado Springs seat, and was thus the only candidate to emerge from the convention with a ballot spot. The antiestablishment conservative Williams will face establishment conservative 2008 candidate and consultant Jeff Crank (R), who has been approved for the ballot with petition signatures, in the primary. It is possible that other candidates, including State Sen. Bob Gardner (R) could make it on to the ballot by petition signatures.

DE-AL: Gov. John Carney (D) is endorsing his former cabinet official Eugene Young (D) in the primary to succeed Senate candidate Rep. Lisa Blunt-Rochester (D). Most state and national Democrats have endorsed Young’s rival, State Sen. Sarah McBride (D), who is transgender.

NY-1: Expelled ex-Rep. George Santos is leaving the GOP to become an independent and will challenge Rep. Nick LaLota (R) in the general rather than the GOP primary. Santos is unlikely to be a major factor in the race for the light-red eastern Long Island seat.

VA-5: State Sen. John McGuire (R) has secured an endorsement from Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), which is notable in that Kiggans is endorsing directly against her delegation colleague, incumbent Bob Good (R). The ultra-antiestablishment Good has had a poor relationship with many of his House colleagues. McGuire’s primary challenge for this medium-red Charlottesville and rural Southside Virginia seat is also backed by forces loyal to ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R); Good was one of the eight members who brought down McCarthy’s speakership last year.

WI-8: ICYMI, last Friday Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) announced he will resign on April 19th; he had previously decided not to seek re-election. The timing of his resignation means there will not be a special election before November. Ex-State Sen. Roger Roth (R) and State Sen. Andre Jacque (R) are the major candidates for this medium-red Green Bay and Appleton area seat so far, but Trump campaign aide and professional online troll Alex Bruesewitz (R-FL) is also considering a bid.

State & Local:

MT-Aud, MT-PSC, MT-Leg: 9 candidates were disqualified from Montana’s ballot due to not filing the required disclosure paperwork. The most notable disqualification is State Rep. Steve Gunderson (R) being knocked off the primary ballot for State Auditor (Insurance Commissioner), but 8 other candidates for that office, PSC, and legislature were also impacted. Gunderson’s disqualification means that PSC member Jim Brown (R) is now the heavy favorite for the nomination to the Auditor post to succeed congressional candidate Troy Downing (R). 2022 PSC nominee John Repke (D) is running for Democrats.

NE-SD-33: Nebraska State Sen. Steve Halloran (R) of Hastings is facing calls for his resignation after he inserted a colleague’s name into a reading of a book’s graphic description of sexual assault. Halloran was reading from the book in a attempt to make an argument about keeping such material out of schools.

TX-Leg: State Rep. Tom Oliverson (R) of suburban Houston will launch a bid for Speaker, becoming the first open challenger to incumbent Dade Phelan (R). Phelan is facing a primary runoff in May for his Beaumont-area legislative seat after drawing the ire of AG Ken Paxton’s (R) network with a failed push for Paxton’s impeachment. The move is all the more notable as Oliverson had previously been considered a Phelan ally.

Chesapeake-Mayor: Former NFL player and Chesapeake, VA councilman Don Carey (R=>D) will challenge Mayor Rick West (R) in this fall’s election to lead the purple Hampton Roads mega-suburb of 250K. Carey is also switching parties from Republican to Democrat to do so; while the election is non-partisan, the move could give Carey Democratic support against West.

International:

India: A poll has the center-right NDA of PM Narendra Modi leading the center-left INDIA alliance 46-39, with seat projections projecting the NDA to retain its majority. The results for this spring’s election, which will occur on 7 dates in April and May, will be released in June.

Mexico: A poll of Mexico’s Presidential election has left-wing Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum leading center-right Senator Xochitl Galvez 51-37.