Thursday, there will be a GOP special election nominating convention in Colorado. Our preview is here and we will update this thread with results.
CO-4 (R): CO-4 is an R+13 seat covering Colorado’s rural eastern plains as well as a crescent around the northern, eastern, and southern Denver exurbs. The seat will have a special GOP convention due to the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R) several weeks ago. The nominee chosen here will only be for the June special election to fill out the term, which will occur on the same day as the contested June 25th primary for the full term. Carpetbagging Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) is seeking the full term but has decided not to run in the special election and is advocating that a placeholder be named (Boebert would leave her CO-3 seat open for the rest of the year if she won the special election). Somewhat surprisingly, Boebert is joined in that position by one of her major rivals, talk radio host Deborah Flora (R), who was thought to have a real shot at winning the special election nomination herself. Information on this contest is sparse as it will be decided by a small group of insiders, but as best I can tell there are nine Republicans seeking the nomination and four major contenders.
The first big question is whether the committee will back a placeholder or a candidate who is seeking the full term. If they go the former route, the nomination will likely go to ex-Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (R), who is the major placeholder candidate. Lopez served as Mayor of the exurban town of Parker in the 90s; it was then a small town but is now a large exurb. Lopez lost a run for State Senate in 1998 and largely left politics before becoming a low-level official in the Trump Small Business Administration. He has since lost two races for Governor in 2018 and 2022, taking a stronger than expected 46% in the 2022 primary. Lopez is not running for the full term; as a result, he seems to have some implicit support from Boebert’s and Flora’s networks. However, nominating him would implicitly be a capitulation to Boebert. That stance seems unlikely for a group of insiders who are likely to think poorly of Boebert’s cross-state carpetbagging, and are probably much more inclined to try and give one of her rivals a leg up in the primary.
Logan County commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg (R) is a farmer who began his political career with election to a rural plains State House seat in 2006. Sonnenberg served 8 years in that post before moving up to the State Senate in 2014, serving another 8 years. As he termed out in 2022, Sonnenberg won a seat on his local county commission in the Sterling area. Sonnenberg has been a mainstream establishment conservative in his political career. He has collected the strongest institutional support for this race, capped off by an endorsement from ex-US Sen. Cory Gardner (R). He had raised $150K by the end of 2023 (the most current FEC filings available).
State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R) is a veteran and cattle rancher. He was initially appointed to a rural eastern plains State House seat in 2019 and has served 5 years, rising to Minority Whip in the most recent session. Holtorf entered the race before Buck retired and has been running on a hardcore antiestablishment conservative platform. He had raised $110K by the end of 2023, including $40K of self-funding, and seems to have strong grassroots support from antiestablishment conservatives in the rural plains.
Ex-State Sen. Ted Harvey (R) is a career GOP operative and think tank executive. He lost primary runs for the State House in 1992 and State Senate in 1998, but was appointed to fill a vacancy in a State House seat in Denver’s southern exurbs in 2001. Harvey served 5 years before moving up to the State Senate in 2006, serving 8 years in that post before terming out in 2014. Along the way, Harvey took third place in a primary for Congress in CO-6 in 2008. Since leaving office, Harvey has run a major GOP SuperPAC with a 7-figure budget. Harvey has been an establishment-friendly ideological conservative in office. He had only raised $40K for this race by the New Year, but should obviously have connections to raise more. Harvey also has some institutional support from the exurban Douglas County portion of the district.
The other candidates seem longer-shots. Congressional staffer Chris Phelen (R) worked his way up the ranks to become CoS for now-retiring Colorado Rep. Doug Lamborn (R). He is running as an establishment conservative and might have some institutional support from Lamborn’s network, though Lamborn is far from a powerhouse in the state party. 2018 CO-2 nominee Peter Yu (R) is a mortgage broker who was the sacrificial-lamb nominee in the deep-blue district in 2018. He is running as an establishment conservative and has self-funded $250K. Veteran Floyd Trujillo (R) is a businessman in the energy industry, and is running as an establishment conservative. And Trump aide Mariel Bailey (R) served in a low-level position in the Trump White House. The final candidate has been indicted on felony stalking and harassment charges and is not going to receive the nomination. While it is not out of the question one of them could catch fire with a great speech to the convention, none of these candidates have strong institutional support and they seem unlikely to be picked in the insider-dominated format.
Overall, the major contenders are Sonnenberg, Holtorf, and Harvey, with Lopez as a potential wildcard. CW seems to be that Sonnenberg is the clear front-runner, but Lopez could have a real chance to pull the upset if all of Sonnenberg’s rivals unite around him as a placeholder candidate, and Holtorf and Harvey can not be counted out either. Regardless of who it is, the nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the special election for the deep-red seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.