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Evening Political Roundup for February 21, 2012

by: SCRep

Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 17:30:00 PM EST


Arizona: A new We Ask America poll in Arizona shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%. A CNN poll shows a closer race, Romney 36%, Santorum 32%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 6%, Undecided 6%.

Michigan: A new Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll in Michigan shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, 32% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 7%. Another 22% of voters remain undecided. Eight days ago, Santorum had a 9% lead and twelve days before that Romney led by 15% in the same poll. A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney's 34%. Well behind are Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%.

Texas: Ted Cruz is narrowing the gap with frontrunner Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst according to a new Texas Tribune poll. Dewhurst led with 38 percent, followed by Cruz at 27 percent and former ESPN analyst Craig James and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert each with 7 percent.

New Mexico: Retired State District Judge James Hall released two preliminary proposals for comment by parties in the House redistricting case. He plans to make a final decision by Feb. 27. Hall adopted a redistricting plan in January, but the state Supreme Court overturned that Feb. 10, telling Hall to come up with a new plan that was less biased toward Republicans, kept more communities intact, and shored up Hispanic influence in a Clovis area district.
SCRep :: Evening Political Roundup for February 21, 2012
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Evening Political Roundup for February 21, 2012 | 112 comments
Rev. Franklin Graham on Obama
Only in New York
Could someone who is last in the country to do something say they were months ahead.

http://www.politicker.com/2012...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Tradition!
Tradition!

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO
[ Parent ]
It's BS
The reason NY draws their maps so late is because late maps are an incumbent protection plan. All the incumbents know they are running for re-election and have been raising money and building war chests for years. The challengers usually dont decide to run until they actually know what the lines are going to look like.

By waiting so long NYS incumbent pols can choose their voters and their opponents (by drawing any successful fundraising challengers out of their preferred districts. And running the clock out makes it harder for anyone to quibble with the maps they drew because there is no time left to make another map.

Its typical NYS political shenanigans. Thats the only tradition they are keeping.

[ Parent ]
also it allows them to
move any challengers that prematurely announce out the district they were planning on running in.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Rick Santorum needs to turn this into a TV ad.
"If you just cut, if all you're thinking about doing is cutting spending, as you cut spending you'll slow down the economy," he said in part of his response. "So you have to, at the same time, create pro-growth tax policies."

Link

Play that and then rip him to shred on his record as MA Gov. while showing quotes like this on screen:

"It's hogwash. It confirms yet again that Romney is not a limited government conservative," said Andy Roth, the vice president for government affairs at the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. "The idea that balancing the budget would not help the economy is crazy. If we balanced the budget tomorrow on spending cuts alone, it would be fantastic for the economy."

Frankly, Santorum needs to get tougher. He can stop with the positive bio ads at this point, his favorability rating doesn't have much room to improve and the only rather mild 'negative' ad he's ran (the 'mud-slinging' one) was a questionably effective use of some of Romney's more mild heresies (and besides, whining about "mud-slinging" always weakens an ad).

Now naturally the Romney camp says it was a gaff (in an incredibly weak-sauce way) but that's not really the point...

The governor's point was that simply slashing the budget, with no affirmative pro-growth policies, is insufficient to get the economy turned around.  However, he believes that budget cuts - especially in the context of President Obama's unprecedented spending explosion - are a step in the right direction.  As he made clear in his economic plan, he believes that spending cuts that reduce the size of government and balance the budget are crucial to economic growth and job creation.

... this can not possibly help with conservative doubters. Romney needs to get his crap together and he does not appear to be doing so, he should not still be making gaffs like this. Reinforces my belief Santorum would be a stronger candidate.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Paul's latest epic deconstruction of Santorum.
Now airing in MI. If he and Romney weren't all buddy-buddy I would love to see what he could do to Romney:

Transcript:

[arrow pointing at Santorum] Is this dude serious? Fiscal conservative? Really? Santorum voted to raise the debt ceiling five times, doubled the size of the department of education, then supported the biggest entitlement expansion since the 60s. Not groovy.

Santorum voted to send billions of our tax dollars over seas to dictators in North Korea and Egypt, and even hooked planned parenthood up with a few million bucks! Rick Santorum a fiscal conservative? Fake.



(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
Santorum: Pro-choice at one time
Of course he was a Pennsylvania Republican:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

27, Republican, PA-6

I voted for the first time today.
When the guy up front asked me if I wanted to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary, I almost laughed out loud before telling him 'Republican.'

President: Mitt Romney

Delegates: Romney has some interesting delegates. He has my state rep., Mark White, Fayette County state rep. Barrett Rich, former Gov. Winfield Dunn, and Shelby County Probate Clerk Paul Boyd.

D.A.: Amy Weirich's had no primary opposition.

Shelby County Commission, District 1, Position 3: Steve Basar, for the remainder of the current four-year term (interestingly, Basar is Jewish)

County Assessor of Property: Deputy Assessor John Bogan

General Sessions Court Clerk: Rick Rout, son of former County Mayor Jim Rout (who was a conservative Democrat). Rout was actually standing outside the early voting location, greeting voters from as close as was legal. That impresses me.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

the election officials have to ask
Even if you were wearing a Tea Party T-shirt they'd have had to ask.

As to the list: It seemed that Dunn was always on someones delegate list when I lived back there. He'll probably be on the electors list for the general election as well. And yup, Romney grabbed heavily from members of the legislature already in office.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Members of the legislature
Yep. There were one or two that I left off, but Perry had a bunch, including Brian Kelsey. Newt had Stacey Campfield.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking that
The Republican committee should Santorum win will be appointing from the Perry, Cain, and Bachman lists.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Kinzinger Leads IL-16
http://weaskamerica.com/2012/0...  

18, Republican, KS-03

Capito, Cassidy, Handel, Roberts and Rounds for 2014 Senate!!
Wow
Kinzinger leads in both genders and all age brackets. I like the large sample size. 1,395 with a MoE of 2.62% is awesome.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
The poll smells bunk
Even Kinzinger's internal had him trailing, and now a huge lead? I'm actually doubting if WAA actually polls.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I mean it seriously
Huge poll samples in races that nobody (except here) is following and it doesn't seem like they have a business model like PPP to justify the huge costs to put out 3 polls a day. I have real suspicions.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
what are you talking about?
they ask america.  it's right in their title!

(fwiw, I have no opinion on their polling, so I'm neither agreeing nor making fun of you)

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to learn they don't.
If anyone knows a Republican in IL-16 it'd be good to ask him. At a sample size of 1,400 likely GOP primary voters, they must literally have dialed the number of every Republican in the area. And I'm not using "literally" wrong here.
[ Parent ]
The district
Is heavily R.
But with such a sample size, someone on your street was polled and 2 put down the phone.
You have contacts with Nate. Can you get him to look into it?  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I don't know what he'd do about it, but
sure, I can shoot him an email.
[ Parent ]
Kinzinger v. Manzullo
I have no opinion on the validity of WAA polls, but personally I don't see why IL-16 GOP voters would prefer some boring old useless back-bencher over a dynamic young rising star with statewide prospects. This is about what I would expect to see if the IL-16 GOP electorate was familiar with both candidates, and Kinzinger has been raising and spending a lot more money thus far than Manzullo.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Kinzinger
I certainly hope you're correct. Kinzinger is the future of the IL-GOP... he has none of the potential issues Schock could face and he's got a military background, too. Both are solid potential statewide candidates but I actually may even prefer Kinzinger to Schock statewide.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Schock
What potential issues could Schock face and how are they not ones Kinzinger has? Schock and Kinzinger strike me as similar to each other in that they are both young, telegenic, and had some experience in elected office before being elected to Congress. I don't know of any disqualifying issues either of them has but you are an authority on Illinois politics so I defer to you on the topic.
[ Parent ]
NCGOP
Well... I'd recommend a thorough Google search on him. I'm not saying the rumor you'll find is true, it's just that it could hurt him if brought up maliciously in a primary.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
and that rumor is getting censored here on RRH, since
my comment about it, phrased very politely, was deleted.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
rumors
If rumors haven't prevented Lindsey Graham from getting elected statewide in South Carolina, I don't really see much reason why rumors would be a problem for Schock running statewide in Illinois. You have to have something more than rumors for it to be consequential, and I'd say in this case the something more has to actually amount to more than what is rumored.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Trump will reconsider independent run if Santorum is nominee
http://www.newsmax.com/US/Dona...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
Yeah, sounds like
he is trying to help Romney out by saying that. If yall nominate Santorum I run as an independent. Don't nominate Santorum would be wise.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Nah
He wasn't in the news for a day.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
True
But say that were to happen, it would effectively bring Santorum's chances of winning from low to no.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Nah . . .
"Celebrity Apprentice" had its season premiere last night.  
[ Parent ]
Trump needs to stay in the news for ratings
How does anyone take this clown seriously in politics. I'd even vote for Romney over him, and I'm anybody but Romney in the primary.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Wendy Long poised to run vs. Gillibrand
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

She sure sounds at least a little more daunting than Maragos.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Why is she better?
Than Maragos, who has been elected in Nassau County and has said he can self-fund? Can she self-fund? If she seems like a better candidate, I hope Maragos would consider dropping out if NY-04/05 is somewhat competitive (D+6-7 ish)  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Maragos strikes me as better for this one. He also might be a decent candidate for Comptroller in '14 if Wilson doesn't want to try again.

It seems like Long is more charismatic but also more vocally conservative, which is exactly what we don't need - why do we want to give Gillibrand a straw (wo)man to tear down and endear herself to the progressives for '16? We need someone boring, with enough money to throw a jab Gilli's way, but not enough of a threat to let KG make the election anything but a referendum on herself. Maragos seems to fit the bill.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Nah, lets get a true conservative if we can
We are not winning this seat anyway. Might as well have someone who can articulate the conservative message as best as possible. Now if she has no money, that may be a reason to go with Maragos but otherwise we should go with the most conservative seeing how there is no chance of winning. Who knows, maybe if she makes a great argument, she can make inroads with future New York voters.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
Maragos is severely lacking in the charisma department
Yes, he's a wealthy elected official from a swing area, which looks impressive on paper. But Ed Cox and the state GOP establishment have hardly acknowledged the guy, constantly looking elsewhere, from Dan Senor to Maggie Brooks to Harry Wilson and now to Wendy Long, who seems ready to pull the trigger.

I think Cox fears Maragos is a guaranteed DioGuardi 2.0. - a candidate with decent credentials who's dull as dishwater and incapable of shaking the race up. It's not like DioGuardi was an offensive or incompetent candidate (he refused to endorse Paladino), but his campaign was way too low-key to compete statewide. Same thing with Maragos. Long, from what I gather, is very charismatic and might be able to self-fund, too.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
As I said above
Charisma is probably a net negative here. Nobody is going to beat KG, or even make it particularly close. KG is also very likely to run nationwide in the next 12 years or so. What we need is someone to dry run attacks on her and see what sticks. To do that we need someone as close to Generic R as possible.

Run Long and the race could very well become about her to an extent - a charismatic socially conservative woman is the exact kind of thing that drives limousine liberals crazy. Gillibrand will be able to score major points (and likely significant $) by "beating back that threat", in other words, tearing down the straw man. What do we have to gain from that?

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
We need leadership
here in New York. We need someone to fight for lower taxes. We won't win on social issues but we can win on a pro-growth tax policy. Can you name the last Republican elected statewide in NY, besides the un-charasmatic Pataki? No. Because the GOP leadership puts up nobodies who are sacraficial lams and have no charisma or political experience.

Saying that we should have a low key candidate because of our platform is ignorant at best.

We've tried your suggestions for a decade, they haven't worked. If NY is going to continue to go downhill, we might as well fight for what we believe in.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
charismatic*
n/t

NY-3
[ Parent ]
BTW
The suburbs and upstate NY are very much still conservative. If we had a politician who got into office, cut their salary and cut taxes, the GOP would be taken seriously.

But, politicians in both parties are both tax and spend liberals. There's no difference. So until the GOP gets their act together (it's slowly happening), we cannot field a successful statewide candidate who is viewed as legitimate.

NY-3

[ Parent ]
Democrats come out with a new stupid in Texas redistricting
There are 52 seats that contain at least one Republican incumbent that are wholly contained within one county. RED 100 - H303. Nearly half of these districts are underpopulated
(25/52).

Can anyone count the number of overpopulated districts?

26, R, PA-01.



TX Dems
The TX Dems and their legal counsel are in way over their heads. Nearly all of the deviations are because of the county line rule. For example, the Denton County districts on the balance will be underpopulated because the county is really entitled to slightly less than 4 seats. That said, the only reason they continue to make these population deviation claims is because they would very much like the county line rule to be made inoperable because the county line rule makes it impossible for the Dems to draw a map that would, as WI Dems might say, make it possible for them to "attain and retain a majority". Apply that same reasoning for their constant proportionality arguments and demands for coalition seats.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Critz challenging Altmire's petitions

http://www.politicspa.com/crit...

Challenging signatures usually does not lead to getting kicked off the ballot, but this challenge sounds like it has some merit.

27, Republican, PA-6

Critz
LOL, that would be like a gift from heaven to the PA GOP.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Really?
I always thought it would be best if they beat each other up with Critz winning the nomination.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
AAS34/Critz
See, the chance of a Critz victory was still under 50%. This would put it at 100%.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I understand
I was just stating the best case scenario.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Hmm
When was the last time a sitting rep (or even a state legislator) failed to qualify for the ballot?

Would be embarrassing to say the least.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Altmire
For someone who was for so long a political staffer, it would be incredibly embarrassing. I've always considered Altmire to be somewhat dangerous statewide and this would completely kill that.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Campaign staffers
It sounds like they completely botched this one.  Considering the boundaries are pretty clear in Allegheny County, this is quite insane.  This is not the Gerlach, Meehan, and Pitts incoherent blob carving up southern Berks County.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Have a hard time believing he wouldn't have 1,000
that are valid. Usually these type of things don't pan out or the judge lets it slide.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Can Anyone Make Heads or Tails of The New NM Maps?
It'd be really good if there was some way to compare these to Hall's original map.  
WI-Gov Recall
Would it be possible to write in Scott Walker in the Democratic primary for the recall? I've seen this idea kicked around some other blogs, and I admit it sounds tempting. Remembering Walker's name is easier than remember which candidate is the fake Dem to vote for, and could more directly motivate Republicans to turn out and end things early in a crowded Dem primary.

However, I don't know what the rules are with regard to having a candidate run against himself in a recall. Has anyone looked into this?

Wisconsin statute does not allow that
n/t

NY-3
[ Parent ]
WI GOP just repealed equal pay for women.
per ndrwmls at DKE. Link when I have one.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
Setsuna/Joe Smith
We really don't like to get into policy here, and it's specifically a problem when Democrats bring up policies like this and frame them using liberal talking points. Please avoid derails like this is in the future.
[ Parent ]
My deepest apologies.
I thought this was bigger than it was.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Why NH House has to shrink
D holds house seat by a whopping 122-27 margin.
People don't care about them. http://www.unionleader.com/art...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Either that
or use the states as labs of democracy and convert it to use PLPR. Nobody knows about the candidates there; they're just voting the party with that small a constituency. With PLPR the next guy on the list could've filled the seat with no special election.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
NY-SD-17
Stupid analysis of the new orthodox district from WNYC. What they neglect to mention is that a lot of the Dems in that area (including Kruger) had no opponent in 2010, so they drastically understate how good Generic D will do there. http://empire.wnyc.org/2012/02...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Really lazy journalism. Dumb people looking only at these numbers
Of course VRA senators Parker and Adams did great here, but only because they were super safe and had favors from them and there is no reason why the establishment should support a guaranteed loser. And Kruger was once a conservadem.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
NY Court Maps
HAs anyone done a court congressional map for NY? Interested in how that could turn out for us.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
Hmm, no
It's a little too complicated for me because there are a lot of different configurations for it. Just trying to figure out who a court map would cut is a major endeavor.

If you're working on it (or any other NY map), I kindly ask you to hold off for a few days as my latest leg map will be up tomorrow morning.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
*legislatively drawn congressional map
nt

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
My guess
A court map would take the 'path of least resistance': Cut Hochul and Turner.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
I think I have a clean map for NY on this site somewhere
It's not a prediction of what the court would do; but the lines I drew were clean. (Too clean for how the politicians would draw)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
I had also paid no attention to incumbents houses
As I recall I was told afterwards that I had double bunked either three or four pairs of incumbents together.

(And created open seats)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Common Cause
Assume that's the court template  
[ Parent ]
Common Cause map
http://www.citizenredistrictny...

It's a decent guess, at least Upstate. Upstate could be good for the GOP, if a court draws Buffalo and Rochester districts that don't take Democrats out for other seats. The GOP would also like to keep Westchester out of other Upstate districts.

Long Island would be good to very good, as there could be 4 winnable districts. The biggest question is what happens in Brooklyn with the heavily Republican areas there.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I agree with Upstate
and downstate.  I think the City is poor on Common Cause.  There is no reason why not to draw three Hispanic-majority districts, which I think a court would do too.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO
[ Parent ]
Where?
You can draw one in the Bronx and one in Brooklyn-Queens. You could turn NY-15 into a Hispanic majority district. That'd make sense based on current population. Courts, however, may be hesitant to create a district a Black candidate won't win.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Well it helps that there are very few white/Asian people in NY-15
You can make a district that is about 50% HVAP, but also about 40% black. That would give NYC the appearance of having three Hispanic districts, but black voters would dominate the primary for another generation at least.
[ Parent ]
MN .drf file
Does anyone have the .drf file of the new Congressional map? I'd like to explore it.  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Chad Prosser
Doing good for only entering the race in January.
http://grandstranddaily.com/pr...

SC1-Charleston
CA Assembly News
http://www.dailybulletin.com/n...

Victoria Rusnak (Pasadena Car Dealer President) files papers to run as a D in this D+7 AD that takes choice foothill cities . Morrell, great guy, lives here but will run in the Rancho Cucamonga based seat.

http://www.flashreport.org/blo...
Former CA-47 candidates and Los Alamitos Mayor Pro-tem Troy Edgar will run in AD-72 after Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep drops his bid


19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

Romney up 2 in MI, 16 in AZ
Obama crushing in MI, trailing in AZ. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

The Romney death star
Strikes again this time in Michigan. The Death Star, which consists of his own campaign's fundraising, along with his two super PACs, has the ability to bombard any of his opponents when they work in unison. This teamed up with the Paul campaigns own negative attack on Santorum, and it was only a matter of time before Romney took the lead. The only thing that can fight this off are debates and another 10$ million donation by Adelson.  

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative
[ Parent ]
Stabenow up 21, Flake up 13
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Status Quo Election
As I have been saying, this is going to be a status quo election with a close presidential race.  The Democrats might lose the Senate because of North Dakota, Montana, and Nebraska and nothing else.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
If Obama gets reelected,
then the Dems would still narrowly control the Senate, though.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
MI-Sen looks Likely D to me
Perhaps, at this point, Clark Durant is actually the superior general election candidate?

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Michigan
Excellent numbers for the President in Michigan in the H2H realm.  I wonder if this type of advantage is also present in Ohio and Minnesota seeing the numbers out of MI and WI today.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Santorum up big in WI
Obama up 11 on Rick, 15 on Mitt.
Thompson leads Baldwin by 6, while Newmann trails by 4. Real electability gap.
Walker at 46/48 favs. Doesn't look like they tested recall head-to-heads this time. Only asked D candidate favs.
https://law.marquette.edu/poll...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

CA-21 Cruz Bustamante
That Would Be Good News
I think Bustamante would easily win the primary, and I think he's a weak General Election candidate.  
[ Parent ]
If he makes the top 2
we can kiss this district goodbye. His name ID might work for him, because the other two Democrats are relative unknowns, or against him (hopefully the latter).

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)
[ Parent ]
Valadao
So you don't believe Valadao can win against Bustamante?
[ Parent ]
PHL Rep
CalifornianInTexas is a Dem.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Oh sorry
I thought she's a Republican. So the GOP should root for Bustamante as the Dem candidate.  
[ Parent ]
That's right.
I don't want Bustamante because I know for my side he'd be a sure loser.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)
[ Parent ]
Evening Political Roundup for February 21, 2012 | 112 comments
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