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Evening Political Roundup for February 23, 2012

by: SCRep

Thu Feb 23, 2012 at 17:30:00 PM EST


Florida: The Florida Senate race turned nasty when former Sen. George LeMeiux held a press conference and said, "Connie Mack IV is the Charlie Sheen of Florida politics. Mack IV does not have the temperament or the character to serve in the United States Senate." LeMeiux was referencing a Miami Herald story that detailed four physical confrontations Mack had when he was in his early 20s, one arrest and then a host of financial troubles that became clear during his divorce shortly after he was elected to Congress.

Montana: A Rasmusses Reports poll of the Montana Senate race finds Rep. Denny Rehberg with a three point lead over incumbent Sen. John Tester. Rehberg leads 47 to 44% with 5% undecided.

AZ-6: Sen. Jon Kyl has endorsed Rep. Ben Quayle in his member versus member matchup with Rep. David Schweikert. Kyl said that Quayle's voting record is closest to his in the Arizona delegation. "And he's approached the issues in a very thoughtful way," the senator said, "so I think he deserves my support."

Ohio: Former Gov. Ted Strickland has not ruled out a rematch with Gov. John Kasich in 2014. Strickland was among the 35 people named as national co chairmen for President Barack Obama's reelection campaign this week.

SCRep :: Evening Political Roundup for February 23, 2012
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Quayle
Kyl may be doing it because of a relationship with Dan Quayle, but I'm pretty sure he's endorsing Ben Quayle for that seat.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

LaMeiux is pathetic
That's one of the most dumbest things I ever heard. Ok so he had financial problems, like most people do. Big deal. He got arrested once, people make mistakes. His attack is pretty lame.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

I have never seen this
TV show Sheen was in.  So I am not sure how Mack is a Charlie Sheen clone.  

Unless Mack is a serial womanizer,
he's not a Charlie Sheen clone.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
And those confrontations
were over 20 years ago. I doubt anyone cares.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Most people now days have some kind of baggage from the past. To alot of people it just makes him seem more normal.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Quayle will likely lose
Let's compare Quayle and Schwiekert:

Quayle just moved to Arizona a few years ago, and never won public office before being elected to congress. He won the Republican primary with a plurality of just 23! He defeated Jon Hulburd with 52%, in a district McCain won with 56%.

Schwiekert held elective office since 1991. He ran for congress twice before winning his seat in 2010. In 1996, he lost to J.D. Hayworth by a margin of 45%-21%. In 2008, he won the Republican primary with 30%, seven points higher than Quayle. He lost the general election to Blue Dog Democrat Harry Mitchell 53%-44%. He underperformed McCain by seven points. However in 2010 he defeated Mitchell in a rematch, matching McCain at 52%.

Even though Quayle currently represents 67% of the this new district, his home in Phoenix is placed outside of the CD, so he'll have to move into the district. This means he can be called a carpetbagger. Schwiekert currently represents 31% of the new CD, but he represented some more of this territory in the Arizona House of Representatives. I predict Quayle will lose by a wide margin.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican


Ugh
MD approved Gay "marriage".  

25, Male, R, NY-10

and the destruction of American culture marches on...


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
not of importance
The incompetent MD GOP for some reason hasn't referendumed the Congressional map.

But they should wrangle the votes here.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
BUT
At least it was done the correct way and not forced onto a state by a court. I think everyone can be happy about that.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
A tiny point of light
inlighting a sea of darkness, but I guess that it's still a star.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Autocorrect messes up my metaphors.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Hmm...
"Candidates, elections, and politics." Maybe you can link this to those categories so it doesn't turn into a social issues discussion/debate and stays relevant to RRH.

[ Parent ]
Okay, how about this.
Primary the crap out of any R who voted for it who isn't in an ultra D seat.

That's electoral focused.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


[ Parent ]
Hmm
Not sure why you'd want to waste that money in Maryland. It's not like our margin in the legislature matters and it would be better spent defending Roscoe Bartlett.

[ Parent ]
Because if a majority of the constituents
Were against it in said district, then whomever voted not in the majorities position on this should go imo.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Over one issue?
I would find it hard to vote for/against anyone based on 1 issue thats not even really important on voters minds.

This isnt 2004, I dont think it would be a massive issue for most Republican primary voters.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


[ Parent ]
Even here in WA
The latest state to make SSM legal, do you know how much I hear about this topic when I attend Republican meetings/events in the past few months? Nothing.  

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
I am a social conservative, FIRST.
So I'm sure that explains my reasoning for hold that position much clearer.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
If the voters feel it's that important
then we must galvanize support for a legislator who will listen to the constituents

I don't care what the establishment committee people say, I care about what the average family thinks, they're the ones represented, not party hacks.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Kyle, if I'm reading your Zip correctly
You're in the heart of the area that supported Linda Smith (Brian Baird's predecessor), who had Santorum-type principles in office, but came across as quite a nice lady.

If nobody in your area is concerned about SSM, that is significant.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
It just seems like
with many people its nothing on their radar. In the end, I assume my area and WA-3 overall will vote for banning SSM, but it will probably be upheld statewide narrowly.

Im glad you mentioned Linda Smith. Great lady! Did you know she now travels the world saving children caught up in the sex trades? She was also my first memory of a politican, having my picture taken with her in a parade back in 1992 when she was still a state senator. I was hoping she would make a comeback in 2010 but I heart Jaime Herrera Bulter so much I don't mind lol.

26, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).


[ Parent ]
Yup, Linda Smith is one politico who actually
lives her principles. I've been impressed about what I heard about her anti-slavery work, and I think that's great.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
oy vey
One of the Republicans for it happens to be the only viable statewide contender we have right now. You try to primary Kittleman and I'll set up a freakin' Super PAC in his support. IMO he's the only one who has any chance at winning MD-Gov in 2014.

SSM support is necessary for a R to ever win statewide in MD because peeling off white liberals, while tough, is still easier than peeling off blacks.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
If you look at what I said,
If he's from a blue district, fine. If he's not then I have a problem.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
He's not
He represents my hometown - It, like most outer Baltimore suburbs, is very, very Republican, but not at all socially conservative.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Keystone pipeline super popular
Rs, Is AND Ds! http://www.people-press.org/20...
Just shows how out of touch Obama is.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

How the hell is popular opinion important for this?
For the impact on elections, sure. But this is one of the issues where lay persons have no idea what they are talking about. It's like if the NASA had polled Americans on intricate technical details of how to build a space ship in the 60s and then built the Apollo program based on that.  

[ Parent ]
(BTW, I'm not taking a position on this here.
I have one, but it's not particularly relevant. I'm just saying that for a lot of technical issues, the opinion of the public shouldn't matter, because the public is uneducated on any given technical issue.  

[ Parent ]
It's not so technical
It's quite simple.
And your above comment is a typical liberal answer on many things that polls show that people are against. Or on things that people actually vote against.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Nah. It's really simple, in that average Americans
have no means, either technically or in terms of skills, to evaluate the risk Keystone poses to the environment. And come either to the conclusion that it poses a risk, or doesn't. This isn't simply, it requires simulations of what happens to the water supply in case leaks happen (which they will, the question is just if more like 10 or 100), calculations on the technical details of the pipeline and how it will react to stress, erosion and the like, and many other things.

I'm not saying that doing this stuff can't lead you to the result that Keystone is fine and should be OK'd. I'm just saying that the public has neither the possibility nor the interest not the responsibility to make an informed decision, and shouldn't be a factor here.

On questions that are more philosophical/ideological in nature
that's different, but this asks for an engineer, not a politician.


[ Parent ]
Missouri- State Senate map agreement
Looks bad for the GOP
We won't retain our 3/4 supermajority in the state Senate.  

[ Parent ]
2/3 is enough


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I'm more curious with the state House map
I don't know if the justices will also throw out this one. I hope we could get 2/3 in this chamber, especially if Nixon wins re-election.  

[ Parent ]
I am hoping
on our resident Missouri expert Joncon  can analyze this map.  I am not crazy about st louis county in this map but the rest looks okay?

[ Parent ]
overall
In the St Louis area, this is a different map than either of the illegal court panel maps. (First one would have been illegal with just one Jackson - Cass double cross, let alone the actual tripple cross; second map only illegal due to the court panel's no longer in legal existance after the first)

St Charles county: Unlike the court panel that ironed out the 10K surplus people for two ideal districts into the rural district (those in O Fallon), this map instead slightly overpopulates these two districts by 5 to 6K on average each.
This probably makes the Eastern district between 0.1 & 0.2% safer than the court panel.

St Louis Cities 2 districts: Safe D this way just as they were under the court map. The one crossing the line into St Louis county crosses at slightly different places, but those areas also D.

St Louis County: The 2 north county districts are safe D this way just as they were under the court map. I don't know offhand the VAP of those two districts. I suppose if one of them is below 50%, a VRA suit is possible, but I dought anyone in the effected district would care enough about say a 48 or 49% one.

#24 of course has flip risk in 2014. However, under current lines it was the most likely seat to flip. And had flip risk under the new one. I'd have to see the exact numbers to know if this is slightly better or worse than court panel #24. (I'd also need to see exact numbers to know if #15 [West County] or #1 [South County] are slightly better or worse than the court panel's version as well.)

St Louis county by itself even before you consider that St Louis city loss in population had to be ironed out using St Louis county was collectively 1/2 a seat short of the old number of districts, so its no surprise incumbents were double bunked. Nor was it a surprise it involved Republicans.

This also retained the traditional outer most St Louis county district goes into Franklin county.
This keeps the Northern most Jefferson county seat pretty much as is, and makes minor changes to not only the Southern Jefferson county seat, but all seats south of it.
(Contrast to court panel plan that made radical changes)

KC area: Respects county lines unlike the first plan. I don't know if its functionally significantly different than the court panel's second map.

Springfield area: Looks a bit like my original Springfield idea rather than either of the court panels.

Joplin: Same as court panel. Those two counties fit too well together to be otherwise.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
thanks for the instant analysis
and look forward to any more details that you come up with.  

[ Parent ]
Legislative state house maps were accepted months ago
It's the US Congressional districts that are in the MO Supreme Court (for the second time). You shouldn't have much longer to wait as the court is highly likely to render a decision before the end of the month. (Of course, that decision could be a remand back to Circuit court.)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
St Louis county council map was also drawn by Federal court yesterday
Little changed.

Same districts that were solid D still so.

Swing seats still so.

Democrats actually slightly more likely to maintain their current 4-3 control.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Jon Huntsman's utter contempt for Republicans
Taken to a new level.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Wow
I thought that he just really liked being a technocrat above all else, but this is new level of betrayal.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
IN-SoS sentenced to 1 year home detention
Charlie White was holding out hope to get the charges reduced from felony, but the judge denied that.  If that had happened, White could have stayed in office.  Now the Democrats will make their push to get their 2010 candidate, who lost by 300,000 votes, declared the winner.

http://www.indystar.com/articl...

33, R, IN-09


*Shakes head*
They should let the governor appoint a replacement and/or require a special election.

http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com
29, Post-Modern, Female, CA-31 (hometown), UT-02 (current)


[ Parent ]
Oh no
How could someone who lost by a very large margin be declared the winner? This is not democracy at all. I hope the IN Supreme Court will reduce the charges to misdemeanor and allow White to stay in office, or let Daniels appoint his successor.  

[ Parent ]
TX Redistricting Updates
AA and Hispanic Plaintiffs spar over control of CD-33 in settlement map: http://txredistricting.org/pos...

Dems worried that San Antonio panel will order the state's last settlement offer into effect: http://txredistricting.org/pos...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


I have suggested all along
that the SA court will likely adapt something very very close to AG's last agreement.  The AG is the big dog, as far as appeals are concerned, and likely without the AG's support of a map the panel will likely be fragmented.  If the SA panel is split on maps and the AG is filing appeals over the interim the court will likely be overturned at some point.  

If the AG has some minority plaintiffs on board that bullet proofs it for appeals.  

I think the DC court, apparently, will be striving to be narrow and unamious in its findings.  Of course they could object to one precinct in each map and that would deny preclearance and that puts in back in SA for an interim map.  So what DC says IMO might not  help the plaintiffs.  The DC panel knows the case law and the precedences so I look for a very narrow decision.  


[ Parent ]
TX-33
The squabbling between AA and Hispanics is just one proof that there is no 'highly cohesive' voting between the 2 minorities. Why create a coalition district? It's not required by Section 2.  

[ Parent ]
Why create a coalition district?
In some cases these are the best democratic vote sinks you can make. In other cases, yes, crack the dem vote base.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
General Question
Does anyone know Connie Mack IV's stances on the life issues? I know his wife is fairly pro-choice but how is he? It's been hard to find information on the subject.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



I actually did see that one
I was looking for something a little more substantial though. Are there any quotes of him on the subject or does he just not talk about it?

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
I did
A quick google search and it looks like he's pro-life but also pro-stem cell.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
From what I've read
He's fairly middle of the road in the party: anti-abortion but pro-stem cell research.

[ Parent ]
Hm,
it seems that Lemieux is a stronger candidate on life issues.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Good for democracy


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I know that you aren't officially supporting anyone right now,
but your comments over the last few days have seemed to point towards support for Santorum. Any comments?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Not really supporting
I'm just defending him when appropriate.
I still believe that the field sucks.
Both candidates have glaring weaknesses. Santorum with his pathetic campaign, Romney with his pathetic personality and record.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I'd even say
Mitt has run a pretty bad campaign as well.  Rick's you can chalk up to no money.  Romney has a ton of money and hasn't run a good one.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Romney is running a solid campaign
It's the candidate and his record that are his problems.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I think his campaign is ok
not great but not bad. As for the candidate, it is what it is. I don't know who is the perfect candidate. Bush in 88/92 wasn't, nor Dole in 96, GWB in 2000/04 or McCain in 2008. Point is, everyone has good and bad, there are better than Romney but worse as well. So I don't get too caught up in all that.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
First day Arkansas filing
Republicans lost a major top recruit in Cross County Judge Jack Caubble to run for State Senate. There were no other surprises in the State Senate filings.

In the State House, Republicans did much better than most people were thinking, filing in some races that were not expected (63, 41).

Rick Crawford filed for reelection, as well as Gene Jeffress filed for CD-4 as a Democrat.  


What's going on with the Dems . . .
in AR-02?

Who is running for the Dems?  Will he/she be able to dent Griffin's warchest?  Or will Griffin get a free ride and be able to grow his funds for a future Senate race against Pryor?  


[ Parent ]
Jay Martin,
a former State Representative and C level candidate is considering running. Martin will make no dent in Griffin's warchest and will allow him to continue to stockpile money for 2014. Serious mistake by Democrats.

[ Parent ]
PPP suggests that debate hasn't hurt Santorum
Started polling WI tonight and Santorum is up big.
At least here.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Only Insiders Think That
I don't even listen to the 'talking heads' about things like debates and SOTU addresses anymore, because they're always so 'out to lunch' on these...  

[ Parent ]
My opinion was
That Santorum had some solid hits and some stumbles, same with Mitt. Mitt might have been a little better than Santorum on average at the debate, but he failed to make the argument why someone should switch to support him. He failed to make the crucial contrast.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Santorum had a bad night
He is assured of going down some in the polls, how much we'll have to find out. I thought his chances were very low going into the debate so nothing has really changed. I think Intrade at 16% before and 8% now, is about his real chances.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I agree to wait with you for new polls
Now we have one poll in one upper Midwestern state that borders Michigan that hasn't seen Santorum sliding. It's only one poll for now and I agree that we should wait for more polls.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin
Sounds like its just one night of polling, not the whole poll. And we don't know where he would have been without the debate. If he's up by 8, maybe that would have been 15 if not for the debate the night before. So inconclusive. I don't think it'll be a huge move down in MI and AZ, but enough of one to cost him any chance in MI.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I've actually wondered
whether the debate might've helped Santorum. Hear me out! It's true that many debates hinge on a key 'moment' or on matters of policy, but I really didn't see anything like that in the Arizona debate. What made more of an impression on me was that Santorum actually seemed far more likable than the rest of them - he was definitely the 'who would you rather have a beer with' candidate for that debate (does Santorum even drink?)

That of course has nothing to do with my politics - Santorum is no doubt the furthest from me when it comes to that. It was just how I felt he came across, and then I also wondered whether a 'sense of fairness' factor might kick in as well, considering the way the others ganged up on him. Now, to be sure, this is a very intangible factor so I have no strong belief one way or another. It's just something that I've had in mind.

It's worth noting that this sure wouldn't be the first time that subjective factors proved more important than 'points scored' in who won a debate. The 2000 debate where Gore kept sighing comes to mind. The pundits scored it as a clear Gore victory 'on points' - only later, when it became obvious that Bush's personality came across better did they start to talk about Gore's sighing.

I didn't want to 'rain on the Mitt parade' last night, but here's a key graph from the Politico review of the debate:

Romney, especially, came off snippy and at times a bit nasty, including an occasion when he - for no apparent reason other than to manufacture a "moment" like the Newt Gingrich ones of yore, snapped at moderator John King about wanting to answer a question the way he wanted. The question was hardly a "gotcha" - it was about what he thinks he's misunderstood about.

Some of the tone was due to the format, which was only the second time the candidates have been seated for a debate. It added to a sense that they were in school, and Romney was the smartest kid in class.

That pretty much sums it up for me too, and if that's what ultimately moves those who watched, rather than arcane minutiae about the workings of earmarks or of the Judiciary Committee, then the debate will boost Santorum, not Romney.

But, to reiterate, much of this is just me thinking out loud. I don't have a strong sense one way or the other, and 'the Republican mind' is often inscrutable to me. lol

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
I actually thought
That the last part where Mitt refused to answer a simple non-gotcha question was his worst part in the debate. Most in the media didn't even mention it. I expected Mitt to give a normal answer and of course score a point by the way.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I agree with this
I was watching with my wife who is a very liberal Dem especially on social issues. While she strongly disagrees with Santorum on just about everything she could she his point of view. Basically the heartfelt way Santorum believes what he believes comes across in a positive way for most people even if they disagree with him. She felt that in the debate. The same cant be said for someone like Romney and Gingrich.

[ Parent ]
New MI poll
Shows no change from after the debate. This pollster had Mitt up 2 before the debate too. http://t.co/F3OK2hQz
I'm waiting to see from the pollsters that had Rick up at the same time if they see a swing.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

This part
"Romney's lead seems to have solidified after real volatility over the past two weeks. Romney has made big inroads with conservatives over the past ten days..."
"Romney was the clear winner in the debate last night. A third of the voters (33%) said that Romney won compared to only 13% who said Santorum"

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Also read the next paragraph
Romney barely led the part of people switching because of the debate even as a third think that he won.
And what you are missing is that they aren't comparing this poll to their poll from right before the debate, they are comparing to 2 polls ago from them. All we are discussing is if the debate changed the support percentages.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I think the takeaway
is that Romney has moved into a lead and solidified that lead as the memo states. Santorum with a good performance last night could have maintained/ moved into the lead. That didn't happen. Sounds about right.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
There was a conflict of polls before the debate
Slightly more had Rick up. So we have to see if he loses it in those polls.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah
That will be it.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I'm really perplexed
How does Romney go from this:

Santorum's 16% lead among Tea Party voters has been erased and he is now tied with them; his 16% lead with Evangelical Christians has now been cut in half to 8%, and Santorum's 31% lead with self-identified "very conservatives" has now been cut to 13%.

and this:

The polling shows that three fourths of the voters are self-identified Republicans (77%) up from two-thirds (69%) Monday, while one-fifth are either Democrats (7%) or independents (13%). Three percent said they were from another party.

Romney has gone from being behind by 10% among Republicans to being 9% ahead. He now leads by 1% among men after trailing by 23% ten days ago.

to this:

The two front runners are still in a statistical dead heat, although Romney (36%) has increased his lead by 1% over Rick Santorum (33%)

?!

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
They are comparing
To their old poll, not their poll of before the debate.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, I see
In that part they're comparing to the 2/12 poll where Santorum was leading by 10%, though they're elsewhere referring to the 2/20 poll where Romney led by 2%.

Democrats polled at 36-3 Santorum!

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
PS.
If that figure for Democrats alone is faulty - an unrepresentative sample or whatever - and it almost surely is, then Romney should probably have a bigger lead. Of course, these things tend to balance themselves out. Best to just wait for more polling as everyone agrees.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Jerry Nadler and Elliot Engel attacked with rocks
By Arabs on Mount of olives.
http://www.jewishpress.com/dis...

Will they brief Obama on their experiences?  

25, Male, R, NY-10


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