| POTUS Delegate Race: Despite winning Louisiana on Saturday, Rick Santorum has some pretty difficult delegate math working against him. He needs to win 74 percent of the outstanding delegates to win the nomination. That does not seem realistic under any scenario barring a massive scandal involving Romney. Santorum: Not deterred by the delegate reality, Santorum is pushing ahead by atttacking Romney for being the worst candidate to face Barack Obama in the general election. When pushed, Santorum clarified he was referring to Romney facing Santorum on health care. Reelection: Here is an interesting article detailing how 2/3 of presidents since 1825 have not been reelected. I think they may be pushing the historical argument just a little too much though as presidents seem more likely to get reelected in the post-war era. Obama-Gay Marriage: The math is simple why Barack Obama cannot overtly support gay marriage. He cannot afford to lose any black voters as his white support is so low in several key states. Seeing blacks are the most opposed to gay marriage, if the issue became important in that community, it might depress turnout. I am highly skeptical of the impact of Obama supporting gay marriage impacting him in the black community. The issue has never really been that important in voting for African-Americans from what I can tell. Obama-Women-Jobs: Another key component of President Obama's reelection strategy is gaining a strong lead among women. This has some perils as a campaign strategy seeing job growth for women is lagging and job losses occurred for women more since the official end of the recession not earlier like many of the job losses impacting men. Santorum-Cash: In case you did not know, Rick Santorum is about to be drowned in big state ad spending which he cannot hope to counter. With several large states including Texas, Pennsylvania, and New York coming up in the next month, Santorum simply does not have the resources to compete. Gingrich: In case you did not know, Newt's delegate math is not adding up according to one of his delegates. Something that is obvious to most people was stated here. There is no realistic path to the nomination for Gingrich and his presence in the race is not helping either candidate that much. Santorum-2016: If Mitt Romney loses in November, Rick Santorum might be positioning himself for a run in 2016. While I think his odds would remain long with a big Republican field likely existing in 2016, I am pretty sure Santorum is positioning himself for such a run with his recent statements about Reagan and Ford in 1976. Congress Congress-Obamacare: Roll Call has a good list of five congressional races impacted most by the debate over Obamacare. The one that interests me mostt is the member-versus-member primary in PA-12. Both candidates oppose the originial bill, but Critz is attacking Altmire for making the situation worse by voting to repeal certain provisions of the bill while not specifically saying what he would do with it. Critz is walking a fine line between attacking the bill and supporting it like his organized labor masters want him to do. Altmire on the other hand seems to be going for the repeal voters who are a strong force even in a western Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Schumer: While Chuck Schumer might not be on the ballot anywhere this year, his electoral importance is increasing as he is proposing congressional hearings into so called "stand your ground bills." One thing the Democrats have done as of late is avoid fights over gun laws as they increasing end up being losing propositions for Democrats, but Schumer, a habitual want to be gun grabber, cannot resist dragging the Democrats down into a gun debate. You almost wonder if the DNC has decided to see if they can get 35% of the white vote in 2012. States Wisconsin-Recall: Apparently signing recall petitions is not a partisan act according to Wisconsin judges and reporters. 27 circuit court judges and 25 Wisconsin Gannett newspaper reporters signed recall petitions against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Are people really still that naive to believe the judiciary and press are objective? Would things just be easier if we just admitted everyone had some form of bias? PA-Senate/Orie: The political corruption trial featuring Republican State Senator Jane Orie remains in deliberations heading into Monday as jurors seem to be having a hard time with a few of the charges. Don't worry... this happened in the Veon and DeWeese trials and they were convicted too. |
