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Political Roundup for March 26, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Mon Mar 26, 2012 at 07:00:00 AM EDT


POTUS

Delegate Race: Despite winning Louisiana on Saturday, Rick Santorum has some pretty difficult delegate math working against him.  He needs to win 74 percent of the outstanding delegates to win the nomination.  That does not seem realistic under any scenario barring a massive scandal involving Romney.

Santorum: Not deterred by the delegate reality, Santorum is pushing ahead by atttacking Romney for being the worst candidate to face Barack Obama in the general election.  When pushed, Santorum clarified he was referring to Romney facing Santorum on health care.

Reelection:  Here is an interesting article detailing how 2/3 of presidents since 1825 have not been reelected.  I think they may be pushing the historical argument just a little too much though as presidents seem more likely to get reelected in the post-war era.

Obama-Gay Marriage: The math is simple why Barack Obama cannot overtly support gay marriage.  He cannot afford to lose any black voters as his white support is so low in several key states.  Seeing blacks are the most opposed to gay marriage, if the issue became important in that community, it might depress turnout.  I am highly skeptical of the impact of Obama supporting gay marriage impacting him in the black community.  The issue has never really been that important in voting for African-Americans from what I can tell.

Obama-Women-Jobs:  Another key component of President Obama's reelection strategy is gaining a strong lead among women.  This has some perils as a campaign strategy seeing job growth for women is lagging and job losses occurred for women more since the official end of the recession not earlier like many of the job losses impacting men.

Santorum-Cash: In case you did not know, Rick Santorum is about to be drowned in big state ad spending which he cannot hope to counter.  With several large states including Texas, Pennsylvania, and New York coming up in the next month, Santorum simply does not have the resources to compete.

Gingrich: In case you did not know, Newt's delegate math is not adding up according to one of his delegates.  Something that is obvious to most people was stated here.  There is no realistic path to the nomination for Gingrich and his presence in the race is not helping either candidate that much.

Santorum-2016: If Mitt Romney loses in November, Rick Santorum might be positioning himself for a run in 2016.  While I think his odds would remain long with a big Republican field likely existing in 2016, I am pretty sure Santorum is positioning himself for such a run with his recent statements about Reagan and Ford in 1976.

Congress

Congress-Obamacare: Roll Call has a good list of five congressional races impacted most by the debate over Obamacare.  The one that interests me mostt is the member-versus-member primary in PA-12.  Both candidates oppose the originial bill, but Critz is attacking Altmire for making the situation worse by voting to repeal certain provisions of the bill while not specifically saying what he would do with it.  Critz is walking a fine line between attacking the bill and supporting it like his organized labor masters want him to do.  Altmire on the other hand seems to be going for the repeal voters who are a strong force even in a western Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

Schumer: While Chuck Schumer might not be on the ballot anywhere this year, his electoral importance is increasing as he is proposing congressional hearings into so called "stand your ground bills."  One thing the Democrats have done as of late is avoid fights over gun laws as they increasing end up being losing propositions for Democrats, but Schumer, a habitual want to be gun grabber, cannot resist dragging the Democrats down into a gun debate.  You almost wonder if the DNC has decided to see if they can get 35% of the white vote in 2012.

States

Wisconsin-Recall: Apparently signing recall petitions is not a partisan act according to Wisconsin judges and reporters.  27 circuit court judges and 25 Wisconsin Gannett newspaper reporters signed recall petitions against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.  Are people really still that naive to believe the judiciary and press are objective?  Would things just be easier if we just admitted everyone had some form of bias?

PA-Senate/Orie: The political corruption trial featuring Republican State Senator Jane Orie remains in deliberations heading into Monday as jurors seem to be having a hard time with a few of the charges.  Don't worry... this happened in the Veon and DeWeese trials and they were convicted too.

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for March 26, 2012
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Obama to Medvedev:
(translated) I'll be a bigger sellout after the election.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/po...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Possible game-changer
Does it have legs though? If I were Romney I'd roll out a full court press on this. Why is Obama telling Medyeved he needs flexibility he doesn't have yet? Why is it important that this is last election. What is so unpopular that he's considering doing?

This fits right into the narrative that an Obama re-elected is an Obama unleashed from concerns of political repercussions.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
You need a media to cooperate
But the MSM has no interest in working against Obama.
Yet, the GOP should harp on this in ads. It hits on the point that we can't trust him.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Start at Fox News and don't look back
There's enough neutral or conservative media to make this the story it deserves to be. It should be as huge as it sounds at first read. On a hot mic, Obama told a foreign head of state he needs more time to satisfy their concerns, because he's worried about political consequences. But that won't be the case once he's elected, because it's "his last election."

Whoa, it sounds so terrible just typing it out.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
I doubt it
He's basically saying that he can better negotiate outside of an Election cycle with Republicans attacking everything and anything he does (Some even criticized his Trayvon statement after all).

Many Republicans disagree with making any concessions at all to the Russians, while others think it depends on what Russia gives up.

Not a big deal at all to me.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Admit bad facts
This is bad in a non-partisan, our republic is in danger, kind of way. You can imagine how big this would be if it were Bush.  

Obama is passing a message to Putin that he can make concessions after the election. It's clear he intends to keep these concessions a secret due to political unpopularity, so as to avoid the consequences. I'm not saying it's to the level where he should resign or be impeached, but it's certainly to the level where voters deserve to know about it and use it their decision this fall.

Aren't you also angry that Obama would be so selfish? If his concessions to Putin are so unpopular that the GOP could use them to imperil his election, there's always the next election. It's Obama's last election, but whatever he does will certainly be around the necks of Dems in 2014 and 2016.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
"So Unpopular"
I doubt the concessions he will make will be anything beyond typical continued disarament.  Remember the GOP had some big problems with New START and almost derailed it.  So most likely Obama is referencing to something similar.

I never criticized Bush for anything like this and I won't criticize Obama for it either, I understand why he said it.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
It's about missile defense
Not disarmament specifically. Whatever giveaway he plans to concede to Putin next year should be a political issue in the election. You don't hide policies so that you can avoid the American people, no matter how much you think your opponents will distort your genuine position.

Even if it were disarmament, that's an issue worthy of discussion, and for people to make up their own mind on.

Again, I wouldn't go so far as to say he should be impeached, but this is serious impropriety, caught on a hot mic (of course).

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
A statement like that to a leader of Russia would have been a game-changer
in 1988. Today not so much. Cold War is over and having a President who will cowtow to the Russkies doesnt pack the same punch it use to.

[ Parent ]
Probably right
Though Putin is former KGB and a repressive dictator. I'd like people to know what kinds of giveaways Obama plans to concede to Putin before people go to the polls in November.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
PA-12
I know that we're all hoping for Critz to win the primary (at least the Republicans among us are), but let's get real. No matter how many union endorsements go to Critz, Altmire still has had wide leads in every poll. Union-backed turnout operations might narrow the gap a bit, but Altmire is still the overwhelming favorite in this race.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Umm...
We have not seen an independent poll in this race in a very long time.  Seeing this is going to be a very low turnout primary on the Democratic side.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I get it.
It's your home state, and your hoping for a pick up. It might happen, but remember that that polling were Critz's internals, and they had him losing handily.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Starting a series
Your daily dose of Brooklyn Dem pols corruption. The real stuff.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


NY SD-27
All you need to know about the recanvassing, absentees, provisional ballot counting. http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Absentee day for NY27
is March 27th.  Counting starts then---could end then as well!!

[ Parent ]
Nah
It will likely take much longer. Look at AD-100 and NY-1, NY-25 in 2010 for clues. Also that close senate race on LI.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Nassau Cty Exec 2009 Race
They could count votes in the third world faster than they counted the final votes in the Suozzi-Mangano race.  I don't remember exactly how long it took but I was well into Dec.

36, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
For sure
no final result on Tuesday the 27th but we will know several things.

1st the number of provisional ballots in question.  We may even see thes ballots resolved. Normally provisional ballots are cut and dry.  If you truely live in the district and are registered in the district then you can vote in the district.  The law is crystal clear on.  There really should be very few provisionals as turnout was low plus no lines have changed as of yet.  For instance if any precincts had to be split due to redistricting that has not occured yet. So provisionals should be resolved on Tuesday.

2nd a count of absentee ballots received will be available. Some have suggested maybe a thousand as 757 were received by election day.  The number is critical as with a 118 vote lead you can do the math. With a 1000 ballots Fidler needs 60%. With 1200 he needs 55% and so forth.

3rd we should have a breakdown by party ID of absentees. If the absentees are more R then the district as a whole that's a great sign.

So we should know a lot at end of the day on Tuesday but we just will not know the winner.  


[ Parent ]
What's the update on AD103?
Did they already declare the Dem as the winner?

[ Parent ]
Also waiting for the absentees
But it's likely gone.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
NY state senate
Fourth R (Saland) to vote for SSM gets a primary challenge.
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


These primaries against moderates are making me nervous
They should realize that these state senators hold marginal seats: Saland (D+1), Grisanti (D+3), Alesi (D+5), and McDonald (EVEN). All of these would certainly appear in the ballot under the Independence line. If these state senators lose the GOP primary, the GOP will be doomed in the state senate. It is better to have moderate Republican state senator than a Dem state senator.

[ Parent ]
See below
Rs will keep the senate even after losing seats. The IDC won't vote for the Ds.
Rs will just flip back these seats in the next election. Both parties are liberal, one more, one less. Upstate has zero incentive to vote for a liberal D that won't be able to deliver because Ds are owned by NYC interests.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
IN-SEN
CfG's ad against Lugar. http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Fred Dicker:
Ds don't believe they can flip the NY state senate

Some key Senate Democrats, shocked by the apparent victory of Republican David Storobin in last week's special election in Brooklyn, are privately conceding they have little chance of retaking control of the Senate in November.

"I'm not optimistic, and what happened in Brooklyn, which is so heavily Democratic, suggests we just can't get our act together,'' was how one Senate insider put it.

Says that the NY IDC will definitely vote for continued GOP control of the NY state senate even if Ds gain a few seats and supposedly flip the chamber.

They also face the virtual certainty that a renegade group of four Democrats known as the Independent Democratic Conference will vote for continued GOP control of the Senate if Democrats defy the odds and ultimately win a narrow majority in the November election.

"Call him, Deputy Majority Leader Klein,'' quipped a prominent Democrat as he suggested the reward that Sen. Jeff Klein of The Bronx, the IDC leader, would likely receive for siding with the GOP.

And Cuomo has no plans on helping the Ds

Senate Minority Leader John Sampson (D-Brooklyn) last week inexplicably finished off any chance of receiving help from Cuomo in the elections when he called the governor's Tier 6 pension-reform measure - backed by Mayor Bloomberg and many top Democrats - "an assault on working men and women of New York state.''

"Sampson just traded the backing of Cuomo, who has a 70 percent approval rating, for public-employee union money, despite the fact that the polls show that even union households back the governor's effort to rein in pension costs,'' said a Cuomo administration insider.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


IDC- Klein
In that scenario, I think the 4 members of the IDC will hand the control to the Dems and Klein would become the Majority Leader. After all, he's still a Dem and he has already served in the leadership before.  

[ Parent ]
The D caucus
Is run by blacks and hispanics. There is no way Klein would be able to run such a caucus.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
MT-Sen: Tester goes on the air
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

The buy is for 80K, which isn't so bad in Montana. As for the ad itself, it's kind of cute (if that's a word you can use in conjecture with Jon Tester) I like it.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


What an accent!


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
ME-SEN
In a move that will keep them guessing in Washington, Independent Senate candidate Angus King has named two new campaign aides: one a Democrat and one a Republican.

http://www.pressherald.com/blo...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


It will be funny
If King decides not to run when the filing deadline comes up.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Bill Clinton payback!
PA-AG version! Man, is he consistent. Not a single Obama-endorser will get his endorsement. Patrick Murphy, feel the wrath.
http://www.facebook.com/Kane.f...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


More
http://www.politicspa.com/brea...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Not surprising
The Clintons are out for revenge for those who undermined their return to the White House.

Seeing this is a PA Democratic primary where the only two competitive races are in PA-12 and PA-17, both Kane sympathizing areas where Clinton is also big, this hurts Murphy.

If this general election comes down to Freeh and Kane, it will be a real freak show in terms of western and southeastern Pennsylvania break.  I cannot think of a race where someone from Cumberland County faced someone from Lackawanna County.  I am not sure its possible for Pennsylvania to elect a Democratic Attorney General.  It did not after Ernest "Goes to Jail" Preate went to jail.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
I kind of respect it
Remember your friends, and who knifed you in the heat of battle. Everyone always wants to put bad blood in the rear-view mirror, hoping it won't come back to bite them. Not possible for the Clintons.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
I respect it
Hakarat HaTov it's called.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Agree
This kind of behavior is frequent in Pennsylvania politics.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
NE-SEN GOP primary
Bruning crushing.
From a PPP tweet:
Jon Bruning has a 25 point lead in the Nebraska GOP Senate primary even among Tea Party voters


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


And Kerrey has no shot
Bob Kerry's favorability when we polled Nebraska in October was 39/34. Now 36/51. Has not been a successful rollout


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
That's a big rise in negatives
Looks like the anti-Kerrey ads are working.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Great move
By Bruning and all the outside groups to bombard Kerrey immediately and shut this one down.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Maybe he will see the writing on the wall and drop out
Har har. How awesome would that be.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Great DKE chart
With all the goodies on the NY congressional new maps.
https://docs.google.com/spread...

Amazing stat on my district, the Brooklyn part of Nadler's district is R+11 and is 42% of the population, yet the young population of the Brooklyn part makes it a much smaller percentage of the actual votes (like 23%ish!!). The Manhattan part went 86% for Obama.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Implies This District Will Trend Hard Right Over Time
If the district has this much of a underaged, but likely GOP-trending, part of the population, it should trend R+ quickly.

Of course, if you're starting at D+20 (or whatever), it probably won't be enough to put the district in reach by 2020.

But I've got to think - if this keeps up, they'll have no choice but to draw a GOP 'vote sink' in NYC proper in the 2022 redistricting...  


[ Parent ]
New York CD races
comes back to straight ticket voting notion.

1st will these Obama numbers not only hold up in 2012 but will they go downballot?  I for one think counties like Ulster, Monroe and Onandaga that will likely go  for Obama will see a lot of ticket splitting.  


[ Parent ]
Last time
Also lots of ticket splitting.

NY-24

[ Parent ]
Not really
The Orthodox Jewish vote in Brooklyn is so unique in so many ways that I really wouldnt read much into the results of just the 2008 election. There are two communities that the GOP does have an opportunity to try an build a political base and machine around in this area of Brooklyn (the secular Russian Jewish immigrants and the Orthodox Religious Jews). The Staten Island GOP was successful in building a machine there amoung the white working class residents there. Guy Molinari spend years building the GOP on SI into the dominant party on the island. For the GOP to do this in Brooklyn will take years and the Brooklyn GOP needs the political leadership to do it. Right now these communites have no GOP elected officials (Turner is from Rockaway and is part of Ulrich's club and Queens organization). Storobin would really be the 1st. But the Senate GOP broke up the Russian areas in resistricting and denied him a natural base to build up. I still think it could happen but it will be a long process.

[ Parent ]
Suffolk:
Obama +10 on Mitt nationally.
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...
They did give this weird option of "third party candidate".

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Obama at 46/45 approval in the same poll
The crosstabs seem very plausible.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Not impressed with this poll
as how many productive people really could stay on the line and answer 48 questions?

Of course I have only so much time to scan 9 pages of answers but what crosstabs?  


[ Parent ]
Evidence of Everything Wrong with This Country

65% believe the national debt is a problem but only 24% would pay more in taxes, while 63% do not believe we need to cut entitlements.

So people want the debt repaid but only if it does not involve raising taxes or cutting spending.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Exactly
Again Americans aren't serious about our debt problems.  If anything, they are becoming less serious about our debt problems.  Republicans who deny tax increases are probably necessary and Democrats who refuse to cut entitlements fuel the beast.

Both need to sit down and admit nobody likes the solutions and if they are made together they will both survive.  If the Republicans and Democrats both vote for an unpopular plan they have little to fear as the electorate does not have another choice.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Agreed
A total overhaul of the Tax code, with more but easier to understand brackets and some retooling of entitlments at minimum should be done.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Good Morning!
Nobody wants to sacrifice anything!
Even in Greece when they actually went bankrupt, there were still massive protests and riots. It's bound to happen here by 2050.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
2050?
The bond market will force us to by 2020. Once our Debt to GDP reaches 120%, the bond market, in one year, will move our ten year bond yield from something like 4% to 7% and above. At that point, our debt is unsustainable. How can you personally hedge? Buy other stable currencies like the Australian dollar and Swiss Franc. Oh, and GOLD GOLD GOLD!

28, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
The Grand Delusion
The (I think, fully self-aware) opinion of a vast majority of the American people is that you can completely balance the budget simply by cutting "waste, fraud & abuse" (while still probably cutting taxes and increasing entitlements, to boot).

Until somebody stands up and has the courage to tell the children that there will be no more candy and ice cream for them (and, if necessary, to pull out the water cannons to drive the point home), this kind of idiocy will continue.

One of the reasons I find the 2012 campaign so dispiriting is that there is zero evidence that the GOP is going to have the courage to say this. In fact, with Romney, I expect more promises of endless tax cuts and no meaningful discussion of entitlement reform. And it hasn't come from the House GOP in over a year, so it won't be coming from anyone.

This is why I'd almost prefer Obama gets reelected - if the American economy is going to collapse in the next 4 years (and I think the odds of that are approaching 100% now), I'd rather The Zero be in there to take the blame...  


[ Parent ]
American people aren't serious
I listen to my inlaws rail against debt and taxes while they collect gold plated public retirements (they even get reimbursed by their school districts for the medicare premiums that come out of their SS checks).  This after working only 15 and 21 years in the distrcts each.  The baby boom generation will suck up more resources than the baby bust generation (me) and the millenials could ever pay for.  And I won't see a defined benefit pension and probably won't see a full social security check or medicare.  But I WILL pay for the debt left by people like my greedy inlaws.

The solution is probably throwing the tax code out and eliminating virtually all exemptions and bringing in more revenue to the gov't along with drastic changes to entitlements.  But we can't forget that there are massive underfunded liabilities in the states that just make the entire problem worse.

36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
It just means the electorate are Supply Siders
and believe the best way to repay the debt is to GROW the economy while keeping spending level. This is why a supply side growth platform would be an electoral winner for the GOP.

[ Parent ]
Without Cutting Entitlements? That's Pure B.S. (nt)


[ Parent ]
The US Budget is not a zero sum game!
The revenue the US govt collect is a % of the total revenue generated by the US. If the economy was larger the Federal Govt would recieve more revenue. If the economy can grow faster than the reate the Govt spends than you can wipe out the budget defict. This is what happened in the 1990s during the tech boom when the US economy was revolutionized by new technology. The problem is Govt spending is growing MUCH faster than the economy and hence the mess we are in. But if spending is held level and the economy can grow then the deficit will be reduced. This is why promoting a pro-growth agenda is so important for the GOP and the US.

[ Parent ]
If the GOP was talking about growing the economy
as a way of cutting the debt it would be a double win as far as voters would be concerned.  

[ Parent ]
Agree but
you'd still have to cut spending (a LOT) and entitlements in order to make a dent in our debt.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Not really true
A whole lot of the growth since the 1980s has not been "real" but has been based on inflating the currency and borrowing. This has been hidden by the fact that the EU has been doing the same thing with the Euro and next to everyone is pegged either to it or the dollar. But the simple fact is that each dollar spent in the budget is buying about 60% of what it was in 2000. If that.

If you look at the few unpegged currencies, the Australian Dollar for instance, you will see this. The AUD is worth more than the dollar now when it used to be more like 2:1.

Supply-Side growth has never been real, except in numerical terms. You could get the same benefit by printing large amounts of cash, and inflating your way out of debt because that debt is denominated in dollars. Which is what the Germans did in the early 1920s producing an economic boom that ended as soon as they switched over to austerity in 1928.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Oil Prices are a product of this
Oil and other commodities have been on a long-term increase because the dollars used to buy them are worth less today than they were when it was 2$ a gallon. The supply and demand situation has in no way altered enough to make any sort of dent in price. Nor will it. Its why as long as we are engaging in Quantitative Easing/Supply Side policies(which are left/right variants of the same thing), gas prices will go up exponentially regardless of how much drilling you do.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
The message
The message from Republicans has been that we don't need to raise taxes. We need to cut spending and grow the economy to grow revenue. This philosophy could work, but there are plenty of ways it won't.

Democrats have said that they do need to cut spending, but only by a few billion in tax credits with the oil companies. And the budget can be balanced by only having the rich pay higher taxes. This won't work because the amount of taxes produced from the rich and the tax credits aren't much of the deficit.

If people are told by both parties they don't need to pay more, they're going to believe it. Taxes are fine. As long as it is on the other guy.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Day 1 in SCOTUS:
Very likely that the anti-injuction act doesn't apply here.\
http://www.wsbradio.com/weblog...
More:
http://www.scotusblog.com/2012...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


NY-27 news
Hawley out of running for this seat.  Looks more and more like Bellavia vs. Collins in the GOP primary.  

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

To further the Bellavia/Collins meme
John Mills is out.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

[ Parent ]
Collins
has cleared the field except Bellavia.  I guess he will longshot a primary bid and settle once for all that he has no political future.

Of course he could defer to Collins and build a little party goodwill.  


[ Parent ]
This whole Treyvon Martin story
Is likely to blow up in Obama's and liberal's faces.
Obama as usual, just like with the Cambridge story, jumps to conclusion.
Here we go:

With a single punch, Trayvon Martin decked the Neighborhood Watch volunteer who eventually shot and killed the unarmed 17-year-old, then Trayvon climbed on top of George Zimmerman and slammed his head into the sidewalk several times, leaving him bloody and battered, authorities have revealed to the Orlando Sentinel.

That is the account Zimmerman gave police, and much of it has been corroborated by witnesses, authorities say.

and

Several witnesses heard those cries, and there's been a dispute about from whom they came: Zimmerman or Trayvon.

Lawyers for Trayvon's family say it was Trayvon, but police say their evidence indicates it was Zimmerman.

One witnesses, who has since talked to local television news reporters, told police he saw Zimmerman on the ground with Trayvon on top, pounding him and was unequivocal that it was Zimmerman who was crying for help.

Zimmerman then shot Trayvon once in the chest from very close range, according to authorities.
When police arrived less than two minutes later, Zimmerman was bleeding from the nose, had a swollen lip and had bloody lacerations to the back of his head.

http://articles.orlandosentine...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


And more
http://abcnews.go.com/US/georg...

If it comes out that the local police is indeed right, I want Obama to apologize before a joint session of congress and call out Sharpton and all the inciters publicly. It will never happen.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
What?
Why in the world would Obama apologize?  He didn't say Zimmerman was guilty.  I don't get your posts like this.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Why?
Because Obama's statement was unambiguous support.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Yep
I am happy the Democratic Party now wants to fight an election on guns.  I know its the express policy of the Democratic Party to get 1/3 of the white vote in this election, but we should serious ask why this president seems hell bent on pursuing an agenda that divides us.  He had no reason to comment on this matter and decided to step in it.  I know his base wants a comment, but the "deliberating" and "reserved" president should know better.  If I did not know better, I would guess Obama and his copatriots need something to distract blacks from the growth of the inequality gap since he took over.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Need All The Facts
I'll wait until everything is in.

And even if the case broke down how you said, Having someone punch you and jump on DOES NOT mean you use a gun and shoot him.  

I also highly doubt Martin just randomly punched him, something else likely happened before.

Regardless, This will not hurt Obama or "liberals".

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Agreed, too early to draw conclusions
But yes, having someone punch you and jump on you and slam your head into the ground repeatedly could create a fear for your own life, and justify using a gun in self-defense. Not sure why you'd conclude otherwise in all cases.

No idea whether it was justified in this case.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Well
This won't hurt directly, but the sudden talk of hearings about guns and the DOJ being partisan as usual (under both parties I might add) in investigating the wildly popular Stand Your Ground laws many states have enacted gives the Republicans a nice social issue.  Every time the Democrats push the gun issue they get burned.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Agree- Everytime you think they learned their lesson
on guns, they prove you wrong. They can't help themselves.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Yep
They cannot resist the temptation from their base.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Could hurt with Hispanics
I too agree that all the facts aren't out.  However, as African-American leaders in the Democratic Party call for the head of Zimmerman, there is a political risk for Democrats in alienating Hispanic voters in Florida.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Excuse me?
Tekzilla, are you serious? Having someone punch you and jump on you doesn't mean you use a gun and shoot them? Would you have Zimmerman lie there helpless until his brains started spewing all over the concrete? Thank God people like you don't make the laws in my state. If I had been in Zimmerman's shoes, you bet your bottom dollar that punk Tray whatever would have been dead.  

[ Parent ]
OK let's close this one out
Obviously this is a case that has people from all sides of the spectrum passionate and we don't need it to spill over to RRH.

[ Parent ]
Wait
If someone punches you in the face, knocking you down, and then jumps up on top of you and begins to pummel you, they can EASILY knock you unconscious and kill you if no one is there to step in. I'm not defending Zimmerman's actions because I don't know what happened, but in your hypothetical scenario of someone on top of you punching the crap out of your face, to think they couldn't EASILY kill you is pretty naive.  

28, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
apologies
I didn't see that the conversation has ended.

28, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Typical media BS
How many other black teens have been killed by other black teens since this event occured. Why not national news stories every day? Why I don't pay any attention to any of this.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Yes
How many black teens have killed other black teens in Florida alone since this incident?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
the only thing I don't get
Is why the media is using 5 year old pictures of the victim here. The kid is 17, not 12.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Because
He looks cute in that picture, not so much in the other ones.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I still want to reserve judgement until all facts are present
but this could very well be another Mike Nifong type deal. We will have to wait and see...

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
My state senator
Is also pulling a hoodie stunt. In the NY state senate. Picture: https://twitter.com/#!/gblainn...

Thankfully, I'm out of his district after redistricting.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
PA-17: Progressives attack Holden
http://www.politicspa.com/prog...

While they are at it they should run some anti-gun billboards.  They will be just as effective.

28, Republican, PA-6


Latest Kansas House Congressional Map
Ugly
And it doesn't seem great either.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
I understand
that it moves downtown Topeka and all of those D votes.  Plus the 4 rural counties around Manhatten Ks are 70% McCain counties.  Its an improvement over the current seat even with Lawrence move.  

[ Parent ]
I don't know if this is all accurate
Because I haven't yet listened to the audio or read the transcripts. However, the Obama defense of ObamaCare today in this article doesn't seem to be holding water. http://nation.foxnews.com/obam...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Wow...
http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

She is the ranking member of the PA House Government Affairs Committee, which is a BFD committee.


28, Republican, PA-6


Disgraceful and despicable sexist comment


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Absolutely pathetic.


Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Sounds like Tennessee State Rep. Janis Baird Sontany (D-Nashville).
She once joked that she had to check under Speaker Beth Harwell's (R-Nashville) skirt to make sure that she was a woman.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Cheney doing great
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/po...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Kansas Gov. vs. moderates
PA-12
Critz's internal poll claims that he's only down 7.
http://earlyreturns.sites.post...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Time is Critz's worst enemy
He's definitely closing the gap but the primary is less than a month away now. If PA held its primaries in the summer, or even in mid-May as they did in 2010, Altmire would be in much more trouble.

[ Parent ]
not sure that's true
except in cases where events outside a candidate's control (improving national economy, foreign policy crisis) matter, an election will unfold the same way.

Endorsements will come a certain amount of time before the election, X% of voters will be undecided X days before the election, etc.  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
SD Mayor: DeMaio (R) leads Rep. Filner (D)
http://www.utsandiego.com/news...
Registered Voters:

Councilman DeMaio(R)...24%
Rep. Filner(D).........20
DA Dumanis(R)..........10
Asmb. Fletcher(R)......10
Undecided..............35


21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


So basically
Undecided leads by 11 points with no candidate getting over a quarter of the vote. Seems plausible since not everyone likely knows who any of these people are.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Republicans need at least one of our.candidates to drop out.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
There's a runoff
If (when) no one gets 50% in June, the top two go to a runoff in November, coinciding with the national general election. Although it would be nice if there were only one Republican in the race against Filner, because he/she would have a great chance to wrap things up in June and not have to deal with the presumably more Democratic November electorate.

[ Parent ]
Interesting
The City of San Diego gave Obama 63%, Brown 52%, and Boxer 52%, but Bob Filner barley cracks 20%.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
San Diego hasn't elected a Democratic mayor
in my lifetime.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Very Interesting And Very Good News
Dumanis is literally a RINO, and I don't trust Fletcher any further than I can throw him (he's my State Assemlyman).

Meanwhile, DeMaio is running a very smart, very focused campaign - I get calls from his guys about once a month about his Pension Reform ballot Init.

I feel good about his chances if it's DeMaio vs. Filner.  


[ Parent ]
DeMaio
As someone who wants to build a bench in CA, for a perfect storm scenario, I assume he's who I would want? Fletcher is probably too conservative and Dumanis too old. DeMaio seems moderate enough, is young, and gay, which probably wouldn't hurt in CA.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
If DeMaio and Kevin James win
then we would have 2 gay republican mayors of major U.S. Cities. (SD/LA)

Then if Tisei wins, GOProud will be quite proud (pun totally intended)


21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
I Consider DeMaio To Be More Conservative Than Fletcher
Fletcher has always come off as totally 'faux' to me (he was rumored to be considering voting for the Dems' tax raising bill, the same one that Maldanado ended up voting for, for instance).  

[ Parent ]
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