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Political Roundup for March 28, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Wed Mar 28, 2012 at 07:00:00 AM EDT


POTUS

Pennsylvania: Bad news for Rick Santorum.  The latest Franklin & Marshall poll has Rick Santorum up 30 to 28 over Mitt Romney.  Santorum has lost 13 points off his edge since February.  In terms of support, Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick has officially announced his support of Romney.

Santorum: Is Rick Santorum hurting himself and Mitt Romney by staying in the race as long as possible?  It appears he is not just hurting Romney, but his chances at being considered a candidate in 2016.

More Santorum: As the campaign continues, Rick Santorum's chances at becoming the vice presidential nominee look slimmer.  Santorum has always been a long shot for the vice presidential nomination, but it appears his continued campaigning is not helping his cause.

Romney: While the primary season officially continues, Romney's backers are quietly amassing a warchest for the general election.  With the inevitability of Romney becoming clearer to the big money types, Romney is supposedly raking in the dough needed for the general election fight against President Obama.

More Romney: Speaking of fundraising, Romney's Super PAC machine appears to be designed for one purpose... running attack ads.  I wonder if this pattern of using super pacs to do your dirty work will be a trend we see going forward.

Even More Romney: Speaking of the Romney Death Star, Restore our Future, is running ads in the April northeastern primary states including Pennsylvania.  Not monster buys, but he is preparing the battlefield for war.

Newt: This is never a good sign.  Newt Gingrich has replaced his campaign manager and laid off staff.  I did not know Newt still had a campaign and staff following him around.  I thought he had returned to the meager existence he had for so long awhile ago.

Congress

Super-PACS: Beware of the super pacs... congressmen and want to be congressmen seem to be very concerned with being attacked by super pacs with little to no connection to their home districts.   I think this also has the chance of backfiring on those who the super pacs support.  At some point a candidate is going to get blamed for the ads a third party runs that are over the top, but had no control over.

MD-6: In the race to be the guy who flips MD-6 to the Democrats, State Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola's chances are coming into question as banker John Delaney is giving him a run for his money.  Delaney is engaging in an ad war while Garagiola has stayed off the airwaves.

PA-12: The Machine has spoken.  Well it cannot deliver any votes for Congressman Mark Critz in his member  v. member primary against Congressman Jason Altmire, but the boss of the Philadelphia Democratic Party and RRH redistricting favorite, Bob Brady, has donated to Critz.  Altmire should use this as an opening to attack Critz for being a tool of the Philadelphia machine, an always popular theme in western Pennsylvania.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for March 28, 2012
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Political Roundup for March 28, 2012 | 85 comments
I am operating on the assumption
that nearly every delegate elected in PA is a Romney one. I think Romney tops 1150 at the convention but certainly if he gets close the stampede will be on from pols who want to be on the winning side.  
caucus system provides incentives to stay in
Looking at how close many of the caucus states finally start getting actual delegates, there is no way anyone officially drops until April 22.

Colorado: District Conventions start tomorrow and run thru April 13

Missouri: St Charles caucus (take 2) April 10

Wyoming: Statewide convention is April 12 - 14

Colorado: Statewide Convention is April 14

Minnesota: District Conventions are April 14 - 21

Washington : County conventions / legislative district caucuses are ongoing and run thru April 21

Iowa: District conventions are April 21

Missouri : District conventions are April 21

Basically, a Gingrich dropout would concede what delegates he had a (rapidally decreasing) chance of winning in Iowa.

Most of the above states are ones in which Santorum won the entry straw poll and so has to be regarded as a favorite to win delegates. (Enough shrinkage in delegates would cause the candidate to finish behind Ron Paul which would NOT be good for 2016)



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

The Machine
Tgis made me think about the state of political machines in America today, and I have come to the conclusion that while political machines as institutions in American politics are dying off, Pennsylvania may eventually be the final haven a few decades down the road. The PA machines, especially the Democratic ones, are dug in so deep that it's going to take a long, long time to shell them out. I'm not even expressing a negative opinion of machines, just pointing out that political reformer types want them gone, as do prosecutors who go after the criminal gears of the workings that they create.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Interesting Q Numbers

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 42%

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama 45%, Romney 42%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

Internals look somewhat normal, if a little old and white in PA.

I'd say im surprised Obama is doing better in OH and FL, but maybe not?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

lol you beat me to it.
Also interesting:

6. Is your opinion of - the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?

                                FL     OH     PA

Favorable                39%    37%   41%
Unfavorable               50      49      48
Hvn't hrd enough        8        10       8
REFUSED                    3        4        2

7. Is your opinion of - the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?

                              FL     OH     PA

Favorable                45%   43%   45%
Unfavorable             45      45      46
Hvn't hrd enough       6       8        8
REFUSED                   4       4        2



(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
More:
Has Democrats "War on Women" messaging been effective? This poll certainly suggest so. What can Republicans do to combat this?

26. Overall, who do you trust to do a better job on - issues especially important to women the Democrats or the Republicans?

                           FL     OH     PA

Democrats            58%   54%   58%
Republicans          28     33     31
DK/NA                  14     12     11

27. Who do you trust to do a better job on - women's reproductive health issues the Democrats or the Republicans?

                           FL     OH     PA

Democrats            57%   53%   55%
Republicans          27     34     31
DK/NA                  16     13     14

28. Who do you trust to do a better job on - birth control issues the Democrats or the Republicans?

                           FL     OH     PA

Democrats            56%   52%   52%
Republicans          27     34     34
DK/NA                  17     14     14

29. Who do you trust to do a better job on - abortion issues the Democrats or the Republicans?

                            FL     OH     PA

Democrats            53%   48%   50%
Republicans          31     38     36
DK/NA                  16     14     13



(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Not really
"Despite the focus on social issues such as same-sex marriage and women's reproductive health, these issues are lower priorities for the voters."

Democrats claim conservatives are obsessed with social issues, but it seems like the electorate wishes both would ignore them.

Obama's good numbers in Florida and Ohio deal with the economy while his numbers in Pennsylvania are tied to Romney as being perceived as better on the economy.

It appears an interesting possibility exists... Obama might win Florida and Ohio and lose Pennsylvania.  It might boil down to Pennsylvania being more Catholic and less Evangelical and its history of electing fairly wealthy moderate Republicans.  You have no issue of depressed turnout and an electorate more than willing to vote for a more moderate Republican.


27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
That would be very interesting
If Obama won states like FL, OH, NH but lost PA to Romney.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Not surprised
This might be the evidence we need of depressed evangelical turnout being a problem.  Pennsylvania has the lowest percentage of evangelicals of the three and Republicans aren't nearly as dependent on them to get over the finish line.  Having a majority Catholic population might be a blessing in disguise.

I also think it has to do with Romney being viewed as a moderate and Pennsylvania have a tradition of liking moderate or perceived as more moderate Republicans.  Even in the T the Republicans are more Republicans and less conservatives.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Romney unfavorables hit 50%
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/po...

And this is before anyone has really spent money attacking him with ads with decent money.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

Unfavorable
Keep in mind a few things:

1. His favorable with Obama voters/Democrats is low and that doesn't matter much. They won't vote for him.

2. White working class Democrats are favoring Santorum. So they'll give Romney an unfavorable.

3. Santorum/Paul/Gingrich voting Republicans will judge him unfavorable.

The big question is how are swing voters feeling. These include white working class Democrats and Democratic businessmen that'd be open to voting for a Republican moderate Republicans who voted Obama in 2008, and independents in the middle.

Obama can run all the negative ads he wants, but this election is a referendum on Obama, just as 2008 was a referendum on Bush. Romney doesn't need to be a better candidate, he just needs to be okay. If people don't think Obama should get a second term, they'll vote for him, favorable or unfavorable.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Normally, voters view multiple choices favorably
I don't buy your explanation about voters who favor other R candidates. In a partisan environment, some significant bloc of voters would view multiple candidates favorably.

I don't know of a time when a projected nominee of a party was viewed so unfavorably. (Can you name a past non-incumbent nominee with such poor favorables?)

While your bottom like --might-- still be correct, i.e. a referendum on the re-election of the President, the unfavorable Romney numbers are a new variable.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
I don't have data
But I talked to a lot of Clinton voters last May-June and some hated, yes, hated, Barack Obama. They were full of enough venom that you'd swear they were Republicans.

Yet when asked who they'd vote for in the fall, they answered Obama. Sure, they hated him, but they always vote straight party line.

I'm sure many of these people got over their hate by November, but at the time I doubt they'd give Obama a positive favorable.

Likewise, I know many Republicans who would never answer favorable on John McCain, but probably voted for him anyway.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
2004
I don't know John Kerry's favorable numbers but there were a lot of people who wanted to get Bush out of office. They were voting Kerry even if they didn't like him.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
The I like John Kerry
crowd might his wife (current one) plus a few kids and staff.  Plus most of the paid staff in his office or campaign.

I think back to 2004 and did people really like Kerry?  IMO he was the Mitt Romney of 2004 as democrats who knew Dean was a sure loser and that Edwards was not far behind in that grouping flocked to JFK.

I can't really recall many or any democrats saying "I really like John Kerry.  He is such a neat guy. I wish Thersea would invite me to spend time with him at one of the houses".  

[ Parent ]
The equivalent data is in the poll release
Going back to 1984:

http://www.langerresearch.com/...

Mitt Romney: 34% favorable 50% unfavorable
Barack Obama: 53% favorable 43% unfavorable

2008

Barack Obama: 56% favorable 39% unfavorable
John McCain: 53% favorable 40% unfavorable
Hillary Clinton: 44% favorable 54% unfavorable

2004

John Kerry: 54% favorable 26% unfavorable
George W. Bush: 47% favorable 46% unfavorable

Now, what would be interesting to look at is whether a general election campaign has ever increased the favorability of a nominee from his primary-season level.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
A lot of factors at work
Mike Dukakis had the lowest unfavorability rating at 12%. In fact, it's dramatically lower than anyone else. He lost badly. Mondale had a 48/30 rating and slaughtered. Kerry's favorability numbers were dramatically better than W. He didn't win either.

We are in an era where almost everyone from the other party gives someone an unfavorable rating. That may not have been the case in the past.

It should be in 2004. If you have an electorate that had 30% Republicans in 2004, I'd guess John Kerry would get to 26% just with Republicans. I'd want to see breakdowns on this. It looks fishy. I can't see Kerry getting favorable from that high a percentage of Republicans. It makes no sense.

Were any of these in the heat of the primary season? These may be the ugliest primaries that have gone on for months in my lifetime. Candidates should have lower favorables when people are negative.

Romney has terrible favorable numbers with Republicans. I'd guess they are the worst numbers anyone has had with their own party. Does that mean they won't vote for him? Actually, these numbers suggest that John Kerry may have been nearly as popular with Republicans as Mitt Romney is.

Romney's numbers here are an outlier from all the others. So it's difficult to put them in context.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I'd daresay Richard Nixon was not the most popular guy in 1968.
[ Parent ]
After his Laugh-in appearance
and I gather other appearances in mainstream --popular-- media shows, I think Nixon in '68 was more liked than you're suggesting. (But there's precious little data beyond his polling leads.)

The modern version of that strategy was pulled off by Bill Clinton -- remember him playing alto sax on Arsenio Hall? Followed up by appearances on MTV, that was the best of bubba being likable, ref http://articles.baltimoresun.c...

Now that Oprah has retired from the talk show circuit, I suppose Romney could try to appear on sets like Ellen, Rachael Ray, and maybe even TRL. Don't know how comfortable Romney would be in such settings -- but if it worked for Nixon, anything is possible.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Best hope for Rs: an inverse 1992?
http://blogs.chicagotribune.co...

Clinton's worst favorability as listed in the article was still a +6 -- and it took the alto sax to improve his image.

Does Mitt play any musical instruments?

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
doubt it
his singing is about as bad as mine

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
not all musicians can sing
My singing scares away the neighborhood cats,. But give me a string bass, bagpipes, or a saxophone and I can make people get up and dance.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
agreed
There are many musicians with little formal training; and as such many know how to play their chosen instrument but not necessarily the proper singing techniques.

Singing observation #1: Just about anybody bobing their head up while singing notes that are going up is going flat to the proper pitch.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
FL-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-Pres:
Quinnipiac has Obama up 7 over Romney in FL, 6 in OH, and 3 in PA.

Link

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

AZ-SEN
Bivens out.

Still a long shot for Carmona of course, but avoiding a primary helps a little.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

NJ Dem Cat Fud out of nowhere...
Sweeney and about 2 dozen Dems really hit Lautenberg hard:

http://www.politickernj.com/55...

"While Sen. Lautenberg has failed all of New Jersey on the issue of higher education, his callous disregard for South Jersey has been reprehensible," Sweeney fumed. "He seems to forget that he was elected to represent all the people of New Jersey, not just those who live north of Trenton. On issue after issue, Sen. Lautenberg has been missing in action when it comes to the problems and concerns of his constituents in this region.  

Makes sense
Sweeney is doing everything he can to encourage Lautenberg to exit the senate standing up rather than lying down, so he can have a shot at the seat.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
I was surprised
That so many other elected Democrats signed on though.  Those are very strong words.  I hope they keep it up, and Lautenberg gets weakened but still beats Sweeney in '14.  I don't know if Sweeney has a path to victory one on one against Frank.  The unions still hate him and he'll only do Rob Andrews levels above 195.  
[ Parent ]
Well, just about everybody
has an interest in seeing Frank head for the exits voluntarily. An open seat is better than facing a R appointee, and much better than trying to kiss a D Gov's ring incessantly. So it's in basically everyone's best interest, regardless of who you actually want to hold the seat, to beat up on Lautenberg now.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
doh
Menendez also doesn't know or care about Jersey south of I-195.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Santorum
No one wants to hear this but Santorum has really hurt us with the swing state female voters.  The damage won't go away when he does unfortunately.  We had a gift horse and decided to shot it.  Strange.

Anyway, the good news is that I am almost 100% certain that the health ins mandate will be overturned on a 5 to 4.  The rest of the bill falls apart after that.  

I read
with a grain of salt alot of these polls until the nomination is settled.  I can disapprove of Romney now and still vote for him.  People are not dummies and many are attuned to how polls work and how they work.  Ron Paul supporters for instance often over poll as they know answering polls impact news reporting.  

So for instance in PA a Santorum supporter answers a poll question that he supports Rick against Mitt.  Then he disapproves of Mitt and then he will not support him in a GE. I have done this myself in polls.  

That being said your comment about woman voters and Santorum will be smoothed out after the primary is over.  

[ Parent ]
Well
I vote for Democrats that I'm unenthused about all the time, but I'm going to be particularly enthusiastic about doing so this year, fwiw.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
PA Legislative redistricting revenge?
Sounds like this suit is sort of out of spite.

Scavello said he decided to sue after watching Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa file suit against new legislative district boundaries approved last December by the state Legislative Reapportionment Commission. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court sided with arguments presented in another suit filed by a private resident, overturning the redistricting maps on grounds they divided too many municipalities and counties among multiple districts.

"If a senator from the western part of the state can sue on redistricting maps, then I can sue based on the funding," Scavello said. "I think we can beat it on constitutional grounds."

http://www.poconorecord.com/ap...

Considering all but a handful of Democratic seats (aka Lower Merion and Abington) benefit from this arrangement, this smells like revenge.  Remember Scavello was the heavy favorite in the State Senate seat that was suppose to move eastward.

27, Republican, PA-6

SCOTUS update today
Pretty clear that the individual mandate is likely to be struck down, but it's very unclear what else goes along.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Maybe not?
http://www.scotusblog.com/2012...

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Well
Kennedy wondered whether expecting Congress to perform was a reference to "the real Congress or the hypothetical Congress."

Now that's a tough question to answer.. It should also be irrelevant. The Constitution doesn't provide for the Supreme Court legislating whenever it deems Congress incapable of performing its duties. The Supreme Court should either strike down the entire ACA, on the principle that it doesn't include a severability clause, or strike down the unconstitutional provision alone, if that's what it decides.

Has anyone argued that mandatory-issue and community rating are unconstitutional of their own accord? No. So, what the Congress "would have done" without the individual mandate should be irrelevant. If the individual mandate is unconstitutional, then let the Congress "do" whatever it "would have done" as the Congress sees fit.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
WI-SEN
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

So are we to believe that the race has tightened that much since their last poll or just that the last poll was bunk?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

Margin of Error, different LV screen, primary race heating up...
There are a lot of places to go before "bunk".  In NV-2, PPP had Amodei up 1, then up 13.  He won by 22.  I don't know if I say that their polls are bunk though.  
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...
As an aside, I do enjoy the comments that say Magellan's poll putting Amodei up 13 was "crap".  They were right!  Just not in the way they wanted to be...
[ Parent ]
P here's the scoop
on the polls for WI.

1. A LV voter poll in March 2012 is bunk.

2. A RV voter poll in March 2012 with more democrats in it then the 2008 exits is insightful.

3. The LV voter poll is an R rated view of the political landscape.

4. The RV voter poll is an accurate reflection of current political trends.


[ Parent ]
i should have just said
"Voter screen" not "LV Screen", as they can be edited and changed all the time, and are never as cut and dry as just "RV" and "LV".  
[ Parent ]
I think the latter
Their previous poll showing Thompson up big didn't seem right. This seems more realistic.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
Agree
Wisconsin is a highly polarized state with few swing voters. Baldwin has a 45% floor at least IMO but her ceiling is pretty low too.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
NY SD-27
http://www.politicker.com/2012...
The absentees that were counted today were very good for Fidler. Unknown though if it's one area on random all together.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

How hard is it
To count 600 votes?  It seems like something that even if done by hand, should take an hour to do.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Apparently
These are the Fidler areas.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Counting absentees
can be really slow or really fast.

1st You verify that the ballot was mailed  received in time. If received late its invald. In NY ballots had to be mailed by 03-19-2012?

2nd you verify that the application for absentee was legit.  In this process there are several steps.

a. valid reason for absentee
b. valid signature and date requesting an absentee.
c. The person requesting the absentee is a real voter so you check registration

3rd the absentee vote itself was signed by the voter.  You check the absentee signature against the signature on file. So yes you go the precinct books for the absentees precincts by precincts.

4th after you verify the application, the reason for the application, the person is registered, the dates are all okay and the signatures match.  Then you check to see if the voter cast a valid ballot.  Did he or she check a box for a candidate.  Or fill in a box?  It has to be legit.

So there are about 10 steps along the way a voter or vote can be disallowed.  

[ Parent ]
And the lawyers for both sides are fighting over every ballot!

[ Parent ]
At very least in
an uncontested election the D & R judge just rubber stamps every issue.  In a disputed election 5 or 6 people have to be shown every ballot and every application.  

If someone X's instead of Checks or fills in (not sure what NY law is) then its off to court.  

[ Parent ]
Storobin lead at 37
this reminds me of Altschuler/Bishop.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
Is IJB a prophet?
The other day he said something along the lines of "I trust (Nathan) Fletcher about as far as I can throw him". Fletcher is a Republican CA Assemblyman running for SD Mayor. Well, today Fletcher announced he is leaving the party to become an independent.
http://www.dailycomet.com/arti...

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
IJB
He seems to know these things.  When divided government happens again, you can elevate me and IJB to prophet status in the political world.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Nah
Predicting divided government sometime down the road is like saying 'I predict that sometime this year, it will rain.' You know what I mean, so don't bring up the Atacama.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
My first thought after hearing about Fletcher's change
He must be pursuing the )))) vote....

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
Lol


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Fletcher is exactly the type of
Republican (or at least non Democrat) who could be elected Governor

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Told You
I really dislike the guy.

If you're a Republican, DeMaio is your (only!) guy in this race.

But, like I said - I'm happy to report that I think DeMaio is running an awesome campaign, and not only am I confident he'll make the runoff, I'm fairly confident he'll be the next mayor.

P.S. Fun story - a guy running as an Indie for Bilbray's new House seat called my house yesterday. I think that's the first time I've gotten a 'cold call' from an Indie running for office.  

[ Parent ]
NH House overrides Lynch veto
of House districts
http://www.seacoastonline.com/...

SC1-Charleston
Link
[ Parent ]
NH
Glad they banded together here. KS Republicans, take note.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Wow
I have not followed the SCOTUS drama, but is it me or is the Obama administration basically conceding significant portions of the law should be struck down?

27, Republican, PA-6
Not exactly
The Obama administration is arguing that the entire law is constitution, but that mandatory issue and community rating are inseparable from the individual mandate. So, the Obama position is that if the individual mandate is struck down then mandatory issue and community rating must go with it, while the rest of the ACA should remain intact.

My argument, fwiw, is that the Supreme Court should not be making legislative decisions. If the individual mandate is struck down, then Congress is charged with deciding whether to repeal mandatory issue and community rating, or whether to find an alternative funding mechanism. The Obama administration simply doesn't want to deal with that politically charged issue, if it comes to that (and I can't imagine the GOP does either).

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I should note
There are also two other options, if the individual mandate is found unconstitutional:

1) The rest of the ACA is left intact, Congress does nothing, the private insurance industry plunges into a "death spiral" (to quote the various briefs).

2) The ACA is struck down in its entirety, due to the lack of a severability clause, and the health care debate goes right back to square one. The most immediate impact is 2.5 million young adults below age 26 get thrown back off their parents' insurance. The 'horror stories' of severely ill children dropped by their insurers promptly follow.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
By "most likely" I assume you mean "my preference"?
Given that the parental insurance until 26 thing is something many in the house GOP have said they're okay with, I'm thinking that portion of the bill gets repassed pretty quickly. They could also do the politically expedient but mildly cowardly thing and extend the insurance until 26 provision until the end of the year in a separate bill, thus pushing the decision onto the next congress. Given that they're all politicians, that's pretty much what I expect them to do actually. As for the other scenario you mention, Obamacare without the mandate is just about the worst possible political angle for him, as Republicans will still be able to make the repeal argument, only now with an even more incoherent mish-mash of a bill. The absence of the mandate--the one thing which was guaranteed to keep insurance companies sweet--means that full repeal becomes the immediate priority of the insurance industry, big pharma and the rest of the industries who at least tacitly supported the original bill.
No, if you're on team Obama--and you are--you've got to politically be hoping for full strike-down or the whole thing being deemed constitutional. Anything else keeps the issue alive while creating the perception that Obama has made some kind of unconstitutional power grab.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
Well
I didn't say anything was "most likely" so perhaps you misread my post. I did say "most immediate" so I assume that's what you're referring to.

There's no doubt that cancelling the under-26 provision would be the most immediate and widely obvious consequence of the Supreme Court throwing out the ACA in its entirety. It's not "most likely"; it's guaranteed. Yes, of course the Congress could act to extend the provision, but I question just how likely that is. Democrats have known for decades that the only real leverage they have with Republicans for achieving health-care reform is to hold on to the widely popular provisions and not permit them to be passed as stand-alone items. Why would they suddenly alter that strategy when the GOP would be taking 90%+ of the political heat?  

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
mostly for the benefit of the American people
the oral arguments will make their way into the decisions.

But its almost always the case that each justice has made up his mind before oral arguments. After all, everybody already filed briefs well before.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
No
Today's hole purpose was to discuss sever ability, so they had to argue why the law could survive minus the mandate.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Super PAC to go after Jones/others
Way too ambitious
pick a few targets and go after them hard. Targeting Jones is super and long overdue, and so is targeting EBJ, but I think they're spreading themselves too thin going after the Jo Bonners.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Agree
Throw money at everyone, and if some happen to lose, take credit. Maybe this is a good strategy, but I think they would have more impact focusing more money on fewer races.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I received a mailing from this or a like-minded group...
targeting Judy Biggert right before the Illinois primary.  She was unopposed after her opponent was thrown off the ballot.  Not sure what they were trying to achieve here.  Not only was there no primary opponent, but as a Dem-leaning district, its not like she can't be defeated in a general.

IL-11/M/43/Libertarianish Independent
[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for March 28, 2012 | 85 comments
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