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Evening Political Roundup for March 28, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Wed Mar 28, 2012 at 18:00:00 PM EDT


Obama-Martin:  When you think the Obama administration hits a new low, they proceed to stoop lower.  Stephanie Cutter, Obama's Deputy Campaign Manager, thinks Republicans are politicizing Trayvon Martin's death.  I believe Obama was the first person running for president this year to talk about it.  If the Democrats want to have a discussion about gun rights, we should proceed to help them receive 33% of the white vote as they so desire.

Pravda: Good old Pravda has decided to weigh in on the US presidential election.  They support Obama of course, but go after Mitt Romney for various reasons some of our commentators might agree with. 

Durkee: Former California Democratic campaign finance guru Kinde Durkee will likely accept a plea deal and prosecutors will ask for 11-14 years in jail for her stealing of around $8 million from clients.

Specter: Speaking of something Pravdaish, former Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter has been talking up a storm about the Republican presidential primary as of late.  He made some sexual comments about Mitt Romney's ability to retain positions.

PA-12: Mark Critz and Jason Altmire are attacking each other for discriminating against parts of PA-12.  As PoliticsPA points out, there is some truth in the attacks they are making against each other.  Critz is also the first candidate to launch what appears to be a negative ad.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Evening Political Roundup for March 28, 2012
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Evening Political Roundup for March 28, 2012 | 99 comments
politicizing
My rule of thumb is that by claiming the other guys are politicizing the process they are politicizing it. Criticizing them for that is designed to win votes.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
Only in Hawai'i
So, I saw a sign today on behalf of of a union's support for the local prosecuting attorney in the upcoming primary elections here on Kaua'i... and she was wearing a lei and flower in her hair and she was smiling. You usually see DAs trying to look tough to project a tough on crime image on the mainland. I just found that interesting.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
Obama-Martin
Bring it on, Cutter. Less than a week ago, I talked to a Democratic campaign operative in Tennessee who believes that everyone should own a gun. Also, at 17, he's no dinosaur or relic of the past.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
Most Democrats are not anti-gun.
At least the ones outside of major metropolitan cities. And I really don't see Obama as anti-gun either. He did sign off on expanding gun rights on national parks. I think that talking about gun rights is really silly considering all of the things going on in the country.

If someone commits murder, hang them. If they were truly using restraint and using one in self-defense, then they didn't commit a crime in the first place.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I agree, I'm just
pointing out the problem with talking about the issue. I'm not even really attacking Obama, but Cutter. A piece linked to on this site a few days ago fawned over her, and I found it sickening. She may be very good at her job, but 'true progressives' like her, especially in positions of power, make me cringe. They live in a completely different world than the rest of us, even the rich Republicans. The bubble is very, very dangerous.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Sure they are
Look at roll call votes in the House and Senate, routinely about 80% of the Democratic caucus votes for gun control measures. The base of the Democratic Party is strongly anti gun. Obama signed that National Park measure because it was part of a much larger bill that he supported and would not torpedo the whole bill for an amendment that he opposed. He is very much anti gun, he has an Illinois and US Senate voting record that is 100%. That is a stretch.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I think that he was speaking of Democratic voters,
not Democratic members of Congress.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Democratic voters as well
the majority of Democratic voters are anti gun. Their elected representatives represent that sentiment.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Remember,
Goldy hails from a very rural, very Democratic area that supports gun rights. Many rural Democrats do that, and I think that's what he means. I'm not sure if it's a majority of Democratic voters, but it's probably a majority of rural Democratic voters, and that was his point. I will point out, however, that the operative that I was referring to is from Nashville, not the sticks.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Rural Democratic voters
Small percentage of Democratic voters overall. Colin Peterson is pro gun. Mark Dayton and the 2 US Senators from Minn are not.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Goldy probably agrees with you.
In his words:
At least the ones outside of major metropolitan cities.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Depends on your definitions
I'm certain that northeastern urban Ds would be shocked at Klobaucher and Franken's support for farmers who want to defend their livestock against wolves.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
You know that all 3 of the people you mentioned are from Minneapolis
Which is certainly a major city.

Tim Walz for instance, runs every election with the NRA's backing. It isn't only the Peterson-style conservative Democrats. Walz is pretty darn liberal.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
All three are Statewide representatives
versus an area of the state only. That's what I was referencing. All ran statewide and were opposed by the NRA.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Correct
And honestly, Klobuchar has a mixed record on gun rights. She supports hunting rights, farmers protecting livestock, and even allowing assault rifles in checked luggage on trains.

And other DFL statewide office holders certainly do not hold Franken and Dayton's views on guns. AG Swanson for instance ran with the NRA endorsement in her last race. It is disingenuous to lump all Democrats in with Franken with regards to guns.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Haven't lumped all Democrats with Franken
Didn't say all Democrats, said roughly 80% in the US Congress. Votes speak for themselves. As does Klobuchar's F rating from the NRA. That's all.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I'm not
Sure my wife is though.

I have no problem with every American having a gun.  I do have a problem with people owning Automatic rifles and armor piercing bullets though.  If that makes me "Anti-Gun" so be it.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Seconding Tekzilla.
I'm as liberal as they come and I'm not antigun, I don't have a problem with every American owning automatic rifles and armor piercing bullets either, for that matter. I rarely agree with Gingrich but I do agree that the right to keep and bear arms is a political right of the highest importance, as important as the first amendment, to me.

I do think hunting should be outlawed though.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
Judging by your coup-esque sig line,
I'm not too surprised you support those things. :p

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Ha, thanks.


(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
*Most Dems outside of blue states
I know a few liberals with CHLs. In NY, or most blue states, that would be really rare. Therefore, I think it's more about the state the Democrat in question lives in than a question of what type of area they live in.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
New Hampshire Congressional Map Update
NH Senate Passes Map
[ Parent ]
Good news
but next stop for it: The NH courts as some Democrat is bound to file suit against it.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Senate Map is fine
The house map who knows? Its a D court, and NH passed a mess of constitutional amendment in 2006 requiring every-town with a sufficient population to have its own seat in the State House. Obviously however because of population deviation, this  included the term "largely", and no one knows what standard the courts will draw from it.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Sounds good
I am extremely confident that Guinta will be re-elected this cycle against Shea-Porter (it's a head scrather that the DCCC did not try to get someone else in the race). So, I'm glad he's helping Bass a little bit, but I hope it is not too much, since Guinta may run for the senate in 2014, which will certainly make this a competitive seat regardless, during that cycle.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Does the swapping of 6 towns change the makeup
of either district to any degree. Anyone know.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
A hair's difference
Guinta a fraction bluer and Bass a fraction redder.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
And by a hair
We're talking probably 500 votes. All 6 are small towns, even by New England standards.
[ Parent ]
2008 Totals

McCain carried the towns that are moving from Guinta to Bass by 73 votes; Obama carried the towns that are moving from Bass to Guinta by 581 votes.  So in a presidential year, Bass gains about 650 votes net.  
[ Parent ]
PPP has Obama
Competitive in NE-02

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

Kansas House Passes Topeka Map
I Really Don't Care For This Plan... (nt)

[ Parent ]
Republican Redistricting Gains
not counting Russians
Storobin claims Fidler is objecting only to absentees with Russian surnames
http://gestetnerupdates.com/20...

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
TX-25
Latino Task Force wishes to file one last brief in order to refute the claims by Lloyd Doggett and his minions: http://txredistricting.org/pos...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
Delaney or Garagiola?
I think the chances are nearly 100% unlikely that Riscoe Bartlett loses in November. Question is, which MD-06 Democrat will vote more often with Republicans. I think that guy will be John Delaney. Plus, Garagiola just seems so freaking sly. What do y'all think? Of course, I want Bartlett to win, but if we know from some crystal ball that MD-06 will go Dem in 2012, I think I'd rather see Delaney.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
Correction
*nearly 100% likely

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
I Disagree
I think Bartlett's chances are generally underrated right now.  
[ Parent ]
Neither
Both will have nearly identical voting records. And Bartlett will lose equally to both.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
New Jersey links
Deputy Speaker of New Jersey State Assembly Upendra Chivukula for NJ-7

http://zeenews.india.com/news/...

Rob Andrews used campaign fund on 18 Calif. trips  

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Lol on NJ-07
Like that one is going anywhere...

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
NY-21: Owen's guardian angel strikes again.
http://gawker.com/5897228/

Photos of Matt Dohney making out with a cute girl last week. A cute girl who is, uh, not his wife.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Not good, but
he's also not married yet.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Definitely won't help him
But A) He's not yet actually married. B) It's not juicy enough.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I see the "He isn't married yet" cop out
If I were to cheat on my fiancee, it would be every bit as egregious as had we already taken our vows. Cheating is cheating.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
I wasn't using it as a cop-out.
This could hurt Dogeny a lot. I'm just correcting Setsuna, who used the term 'wife' when Doheny is not married yet.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
*Doheny


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Cheating is cheating.
But I'm not sure that those pictures show him "cheating" on his fiancee.  I can barely tell that their lips are meeting.  Could be bad if he's a dirtbag, but two grainy photos aren't convincing me.  Decent reporter would have done a little more research.  My guess is the reporter did, found nothing, and had to go with the flimsy two pics she had.  Note she waited a week before publishing, no doubt trying to find something to corroborate, found nothing, and went with the flimsy stuff.  
[ Parent ]
What's the big deal? - Anthony Weiner
It's not like his wife was pregnant and he was sending picture of his junk or anything? snark (This was me channeling Weiner, if that wasn't obvious)

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Who else could run?
It would be crazy to let Owens off the hook again. I hope Doheny gets nudged out and someone more competent can run. Eeh.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Doheny and his fiancee's statement
http://watertowndailytimes.com...
It doesn't seem to be very serious at all.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I agree
There's only one pic there that looks truly questionable, and that could have been simply a bad angle and timing. Otherwise it looks to me like two people that are a little tipsy and horsing around. Maybe a little unprofessional, but hardly something that would compromise his candidacy.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Yep
I doubt anything happened, but the denial seems Weinergate style.  Attack the source always rubs me wrong.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that picture
doesnt show anything. He could be whispering in her ear and at that angle it looks like something else. Can't tell if he was kissing her, and doubt he would be in a public setting.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
SD27 back story
looks better for Storobin if you believe this:

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes....

Apparently the Fidler campaign is seeking to disallow absentee votes from Russians!!!

challenged absentees
Fidler challenged about 120, Storobin only 30.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
Why isn't Storobin challenging more absentees?
You have to fight fire with fire.  Some of the unchallenged absentee ballots from Fidler's strongholds may have been technically deficient, but left unchallenged, will be added to the overall count.  

Fidler is taking no chances and, frankly, has little to lose.    

[ Parent ]
That's a good question
and we saw this in the Franken Coleman fight in 2009.  A Franken worker, in one county, challenged every Coleman ballot.  This was quickly overturned at SOS review time but it looked bad.  That's not to say it did not make the Franken campaign look.  I might add the Coleman workers also challenged some ballots that were clearly legit Franken votes.

Storobin's campaign will clearly prevail on most of these voters.  The GOP effort that involved a paid worker, who is also connected to the Russian Jewish community and this is common in elections, clearly only found republican votes.  Storobin will win if every legit vote is counted so while fight legit votes.  The court, at some point, will allow these votes to count.  

[ Parent ]
Well, that depends on the judge . . .
and in NY most of the judges are elected Dems.
[ Parent ]
Rubio endorses Romney
He just did so on Hannity, suggesting waiting until Tampa to select the party's nominee would prove a "disaster."

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
Ese es mi Cubano!!
I think he was smart to use his endorsement now rather than risk it on Romney before the primary. Now he has more influence as he's shown to be a "uniter" while not alienating his Tea party base that's wary of Mitt

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
RINO
Clearly Mike Lee, Jim DeMint, and Marco Rubio are RINOs who must be primaried by true conservatives.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
LOL


Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
I'm already working
on the superpac ads!  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    
[ Parent ]
TPAW
How I wish we were calling him our presumptive nominee right now:
http://www.breitbart.com/Breit...

Great take down of Lorette Sanchez.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

Pawlenty is too calm for a primRy electorate that is largely upset in today's climate
Pawlenty is every bit as conservative as Romney (both having indiscretions over the years). But he is boring. Like boring to the point of amity Romney look exciting. In today's day and age he simply wouldn't survive a primary. His style is better suited for the 1950s.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
NH Senate overrides Gov. veto as well
Plan becomes law.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

SC1-Charleston
Budgets voted down
http://www.rollcall.com/news/h...

414-0? They couldn't get any Democrats to vote for a budget that was based on the President's submission?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Budget
Yep, the House Dems know that it's going to be every candidate for himself, and that voters don't like Obama's budget. Either that or they weren't going to vote for a budget with that large a deficit knowing it would not pass.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
GOP Presidential Race Is Over
Crystal Ball Update On US House
Bottom Line
Dems pick up less than half a dozen House seats, and the GOP retakes the Senate.

Hmmmm... who said that around here just yesterday? Let me see... Hmmm....  ;p  

[ Parent ]
You do realize
That's an 'if-the-election-were-held-today' equation based on two variables: the generic congressional figure and the president's approval rating. Both could, and probably will, be drastically different come November.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
True
I'm with you on the House, Dems pick up from 0 to 10 seats. In the Senate, it's looking like from R+ 2 to 4.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
FWIW
My current projection is +7D in the House and +3R in the Senate, with more upside-potential than downside-potential for Democrats.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Race by Race
Im at D +2 in the House and D 50 R 49 I 1 in the Senate

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Forecast
His formula appears to disregard redistricting. The same approval/generic numbers pre and post redistricting should show different changes. Right now I'm at +1 D in the House and a 51R-48.5D in the senate. I think Democrats are likely to do a little better in the House and Republicans a little better in the senate.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Senate
I think right now Republicans pick up Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin; I think Democrats (technically) pick up Maine.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Missouri too
And we still have decent shots New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, and to a lesser extent Hawaii.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
McCaskill
I think right now Missouri would be a very narrow hold for McCaskill, but it's certainly a tossup at best.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
PS.
I'm counting King as a Democrat, considering his support for Kerry in '04 and Obama in '08/'12. Based on that, it seems rather obvious to me which side he'll caucus with.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
King
I think if Republicans win 4 net seats I think he caucuses with the Republicans.  I think hes waffling because he plan on going with the winner.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
His Big Issue
Has been denying Presidential nominees an up or down vote. IF the Senate is split 50-50 it would be interesting to see if Republicans filibuster from the minority, or Obama actually gets more people confirmed since King's issue is letting them through.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Forcasting Model
[ Parent ]
Some are just way off
AZ-1 and AZ-2 - Leans Dem? While AZ-9 is a tossup? They should be reversed.
FL-7 - Likely GOP? The Democrat in the race is completely unknown.
MI-7 and MI-11 - Likely GOP? Unless Schwartz gets in, it is safe GOP. And McCotter? Is there even a Democrat running in this race?
MN-3 - Likely GOP? Paulsen is safe until proven otherwise.
MT-AL - Leans GOP? This is safe GOP until proven otherwise, as Daines is outraising all of the Democrats.
NC-11 and NC-13 - Likely GOP? The Democrats in these races are underwhelming, especially in NC-13.
NY-22 - Leans GOP? Solid GOP until proven otherwise.
PA-6 and PA-7 - Likely GOP? Gerlach and Meehan are safe until proven otherwise.
WV-1 - Likely GOP? The left-wing activist they have running against McKinnly is a joke.

There are others that I could nipick at, but these were the most obvious ones. I think if you are going to update your projections based on where the races are right now, than perhaps you should check to see who the candidate from the challenging party is, rather than how potentially competitive a district looks - just saying. Also, I should note that in about half of the states I listed, the filing deadlines have passed. So, the Democrats are stuck with whoever they have in MT, NC, PA, and WV. And there is no talk of them getting anyone better in AZ, FL, MN, and NC. Only with Schawrtz in MI do they have a chance at making the race more competitive.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Eh- They look mostly right
Likely just means their is an outside chance of an upset. I would go with that for most of those. It's moreso the district. The AZ ratings I agree though. AZ 9 is lean D and AZ 1 probably more lean D than tossup with Kirkpatrick and an unknown R for now. AZ 2 maybe tossup but thats debateable. AZ was the biggest dissapointment redistricting wise for R's.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I understand the difference between likely and safe, however,
If you go through who he had as safe, than you can see why it is silly to have listed the ones I pointed out.

AZ-1 is a pure tissue with Paton as the GOP nominee. The guy would have beaten Giffords handily had he won the nomination. AZ-2, it depends on the nominee. If McSally wins it I think she could win it relatively easily. Anyone else and it's more of a crapshoot.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Typo
Tossup not tissue

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
NY: Ruben Diaz vs Jeff Klein
This is amusing. Instead of trying to court the members of the IDC, it feels like the Dems are alienating them.

http://www.cityandstateny.com/...

*it seems

[ Parent ]
Romney as comedian
Romney Tells "Humorous" Story About Closing a Factory

http://p.feedblitz.com/r.asp?l...

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

He had Rubio endorse at a good time
I don't know if they did it to "cover" up that story, which didn't seem to be huge, but it killed it regardless.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Evening Political Roundup for March 28, 2012 | 99 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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