Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

Evening Political Roundup for March 29, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Mar 29, 2012 at 19:07:30 PM EDT


PA-12: There appears to be significant pushback against Jason Altmire's characterization of Mark Critz supporting the Republican Study Committee's budget.  Minority Whip Hoyer and other Democrats are running to the defense of Critz after Altmire launched attack ads today attacking Critz from the left.  In a sign the Pennsylvania machine has its candidate, Philadelphia Democratic warlord Bob Brady is leading the charge in Pennsylvania.

Christie: Chris Christie thinks he will be more ready to run for POTUS in 2016.  He stated this in an interview with Oprah where he states he is not ready for the office.  Brokered convention advocates can die a little inside again.

Romney-Santorum: Romney appears to moving in for the kill against Santorum by attacking Santorum over his ties to big labor.  Santorum was never really considered a big friend of organized labor in Pennsylvania, but he was friendly enough to get the Republican primary electorate fired up especially in a place like Wisconsin at the moment.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Evening Political Roundup for March 29, 2012
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Evening Political Roundup for March 29, 2012 | 124 comments
PA-12
For-ward! The Machine rolls on.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
A personal note
So, over the course of the past year, I have found myself in the college hunt. It was an exciting process, but my options have finally panned out.

I am pleased and excited to announce that I'm going to be attending Haverford College in the fall as a member of its freshman class of 2016. Haverford's campus is currently split between PA-06 and PA-07 in the 2001 map (most dorms are in Haverford Township, Delaware County, PA but one or two dorms are in Lower Merion Township, Montgomery County, PA). Consequentially, it is split between PA-02 and PA-07 under the new map... meaning I could either be in an R+1 or a ~D+40, but more likely the R+1 as most freshman housing is in PA-07. Therefore, I'm likely to register in Pennsylvania and I look forward to signing up to help the Pat Meehan for Congress campaign!

So, I guess RRH has yet another SEPA caucus member.

Moderators, I know I've been told not to talk about college on here, but I figured that my final decision was more than appropriate to share with the RRH community. I hope that's alright with you guys. I'm just very excited

I got in quite a few other places, but Haverford was the most appealing that I got into. I was wait listed at Columbia University, so it's possible I may attend Columbia in the fall if I get in off of the wait list, but I think I may be more of the small college type. It would be a tough choice to say the least.

Sorry to ramble on for so long! If any of you have any insight into Haverford, or if any members of the RRH community are alumni, I'd sure appreciate an email about Haverford.

RRR

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

Congrats
Again and good luck of course.

RRH NYC Convention 2012! lol.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Good luck.


(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Congratulations, dude
Right now, I'm mulling over Boston University, Fordham, G.W., N.Y.U. and Northeastern, all of where I've been accepted. (My heart has Fordham, my head says Northeastern, Boston might emerge a consensus pick.) Was only rejected by Columbia.  

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Mine
Accepted to SMU, wait-listed at William and Mary, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt. I still have yet to hear from Georgetown. My test scores and extracurriculars are right, but my GPA went out of average acceptance from my school for those last four after my when junior year happened.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
*when junior year happened


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Georgetown
Just be forewarned that they send all their decisions out in small envelopes!
[ Parent ]
Great to know!
I was told that I'd probably get my letter today, but it didn't arrive, so tomorrow will probably be the day.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
When I got into Oxford
It was on a single sheet of paper which was a paragraph in length. Unlike US schools there is no guide/packet included. I actually did not open my acceptance for over a week having assumed that it was a rejection letter. Only opened it right before I threw it out. Quite a weird emotional roller-coaster.


25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
One of my classmates got into Oxford.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Thats Great
Outside of the Rhodes/Study Abroad students, there were almost no Americans there five years ago. Thats begun to change as people discover

A. Oxford is a lot cheaper than top US Schools
B. They care a whole lot less what your GPA was Freshman/Sophomore year than whether you can communicate and perform under pressure.(Ironically they did not even ask for High School GPAs from American Applicants until 2007. You could submit eight AP tests instead.)  

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
He got into Harvard as well,
so he's still deciding.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Congrats to him
Both are very good, but also very different schools. Harvard is one of the most structured places you will find. The Administration believes its training future leaders, and you get that message blared over the loudspeakers day-in day out.

Oxford is a lot more law of the jungle. The Administration is weak to non-existent, societies and departments are self-run. Rather than classes you have tutorials of around six students, for which you write a paper each week and then defend yourself as your classmates and Professor tell you how worthless and stupid your arguments are.

Harvard is all about conformity in academics. The academics are in love with themselves, and if your doing politics, pick a few Kennedy school fellows, quote them and your set. Oxford is about arguing with and trying to refute your Professors.

Frankly I think the UK experience produces more interesting people at age 22. That said, Harvard will help you if you get in trouble, and if your artsy its far better. The facilities are also far superior and it has better US connections for jobs. And while I would argue people at Oxford(or top UK schools generally, ie Cambridge, St. Andrews, Durham, LSE) are not mean, they expect you to be able to take it.  

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Law school?
That's one heck of an impressive list. Best of luck.
[ Parent ]
I don't think they're law schools
NYU would be far and away the only choice if that were the case...

Libertarian-R New MA-5. Christie-Martinez 2016.
[ Parent ]
AndyRoo
I believe he's going to journalism grad school.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, it varies by school
At Boston and Northeastern, I'm looking at political reporting programs. The former's is in D.C., where I'd intern for a New England paper's outlet down there.

At G.W., I'm looking at their Media and Public Affairs program, which is a hodgepodge combination of studies in political communication, journalism and public relations.

At NYU, I'm looking at their Reporting New York program, which, the more mull over, the less impressed I am with. I've had four years of generic journalism studies and am now working in Albany covering the Capitol. I don't need to go back over Journalism 101.

And at Fordham, I'm looking at their Elections & Campaign Management program, which sounds supremely awesome and is apparently suitable for those in the business of political reporting.  

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
My vote
... is for Northeastern.

A proud and scared business owner
[ Parent ]
Congrats!


IL-11/M/43/Libertarianish Independent
[ Parent ]
Congrats...don't forget to register to vote
PA will be easier to flip than Illinois, IMO. :)
[ Parent ]
Congrats!

[ Parent ]
Congrats my fellow hunter
well, my hunt wasn't as hard as it was basically my destiny to go to Biola, I pretty much grew up on the campus, my dad is an alum, I live VERY close, and my uncle is a prof.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
CCC
Another great college choice.  Congrats!

Remember, if you want to get away from the home turf for a year, you can attend any of the other 13 colleges in the Christian College Consortium (CCC): Wheaton, Gordon, Westmont, Taylor ... etc.  

A proud and scared business owner

[ Parent ]
Congrats
Haverford is a great college in a beautiful area.  You'll fit in well after getting that "mainline" patina.

Congrats.

A proud and scared business owner

[ Parent ]
Congratulations
Coming to that decision was one of the hardest things I ever had to do... it's still a little weird to think about what might have happened if I took the fork in the road that went to CA-29 instead of MA-8.

But all that's done now, just look forward to casting that vote for Meehan this November. And if you somehow wind up in PA-2, just find a liberal friend on the DelCo side and convince them to swap rooms with you =).

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Congrats!
Remember to register to vote in Pennsylvania as soon as you move in. Pennsylvania needs every conservative vote it can get for the R+1 seat and the presidential contest.  

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative
[ Parent ]
My cousin goes to Haverford and she loves it
Of course she's also very liberal, so take it for what it's worth : )  

21, Democrat, CO-4  
[ Parent ]
Haha
I'm sure I'll be meeting her next fall, considering the school's tiny size. I plan on starting Haverford CRs... It died a few years back.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
10 things to know
There are so many important things to teach you, so you'll fit in.

1. Whiz or provolone. There are no other choices.
2. Try to pepper any conversation with a "Go Phillies."
3. The word "mummer" may sound odd, but the mummers are a lot of fun.
4. It can't hurt to throw in a "Maybe you should look in King of Prussia. The city wage tax is a killer."
5. No one uses numbers or the words highway or freeway. They are expressways and they are "the Blue Route" and "the Schuykill" and "the Turnpike."
6. Do not let anyone know you've ever been west of the five county metro. They may look at you suspiciously.
7. If you don't know if the people you're talking to are liberal or conservative try "If all the Eagles were like Jon Runyan, I'd definitely be a fan." If they're conservative, you're in. If they're liberal, well, he was an Eagle. So it's okay to like him.
8. If there is a conversation about Philadelphia politics and you don't feel knowledgable, just say, "John Street," while shaking your head and frowning.
9. Or you could throw in, "Frank Rizzo has been dead 20 years. Why is everything still no right turn on red?"
10. The girls at Bryn Mawr all play for the same team.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
5. "The sure kill?"
at least that's the way I remember that highway along the river.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
#10
Haha, I occasionally used to tease my uncle who went to Haverford by telling him that Haverford's football ceased to exist a few years before he it there because the physically superior girls at Bryn Mawr (in relation to the once all-boys school Haverford guys) used to kick Haverford guys' butts in football every time their teams played ;).

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
#1
No Swiss? John Kerry will get upset!

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Little known fact
He only ordered Swiss because they were out of brie that day.
[ Parent ]
NY SD-27
Fidler up 3 with all uncontested absentees counted.
It seems like Fidler challenged many more balots, so I doubt that it holds.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

So this is a jump ball
as to who will win.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I tend to agree
that the court will likely toss all of the candidate challenges out.

[ Parent ]
Lets be clear
the election commission, the paid nonpartisan professionals, were prepared to count these particular ballots but either campaign objected to some. If a 70 year old vote claims to be disabled that's a legal claim the voter has made.  The standard for NY has been to accept the voter's claim.  

[ Parent ]
The Daily News says that it's a dead tie!
10,899, 10,899.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

I really doubt that it holds, because apparently Fidler contested like 3 or 4 times as many ballots.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
378 contested absentees
Going before a judge tomorrow.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
How sick are the British?
Media reports say that George Galloway has apparently won a by-election to parliament from Bradford West, a pickup from Labour.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Bradford is now maybe 30% Asian (mostly from the subcontinent)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

An estimated 101,967 people of South Asian origin reside in the city,[11] representing around 20.5% of the city's population, with this figure projected to rise to 28% by 2011.[12]

The wikipedia article suggests that Bradford has 5 MPs, so I don't know if Bradford West has a higher proportion of south Asians.  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
It has most of them.
All of this is twitter rumor though.No results have been released. This may be an epic troll.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Maybe 2am UK time now
so it'll be a few hours before there's official confirmation, I suppose.

Sky News has given him a lot of airtime here http://news.sky.com/home/polit... (6.5 min interview clip) and he's crowing about his victory in 134 different ways.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
BBC has numbers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-p...

Mr Galloway won the by-election with 18,341 votes, pushing Labour candidate Imran Hussein into second with 8,201.

Conservative candidate Jackie Whiteley was third, with 2,746 votes. Jeanette Sunderland, of the Liberal Democrats, secured 1,505 votes



Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
What a sick district!


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
There is a real Tory Presence Here
Everyone is unpopular. Cameron and Miliband are both useless, and the Liberal Democrats are in full-collapse. This was a vote against the whole political system.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Bradford West
Looks like that's a pretty left-wing seat, so this is unsurprising I guess.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Jennifer Granholm -loves- hates "Stand your ground"
http://www.pagunblog.com/2012/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
Romney confirms secret meeting with Newt
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
PA-Sen
CU Internal for Tom Smith: Smith 26, Rohrer 18, Christian 4, Welch/Scaringi 2.

If Smith continues spending at the rate he has been the primary is probably his to lose.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Clarification/Link
This isn't an internal per se, but it was commissioned by a group that has endorsed Smith. http://www.politicspa.com/poll...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Extremely skeptical
These down in the weeds statewide primaries in Pennsylvania are notorious for high numbers of undecideds breaking late.  You even see this in more prominent primaries.  The 2010 Republican primaries saw a lot of this as Rohrer was barely breaking the MOE a month out and went on to get around 30%.  The Lt. Governor primary was even more indicative of this.

Smith's problem is he comes from a part of the state with few registered Republicans and lacks a ground game.  Nobody ever wins a PA primary, especially with no name ID, without a ground game.  Only two candidates have ground games... Welch seeing he has the state party endorsement, which means there will be a party hack at every polling place handing out his literature, and Sam Rohrer, who has a pretty big grassroots following.  I put it 40-40 for Rohrer and Welch with a 20 percent chance for Smith.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I am thinking the regulars
line for Romney?  I think Santorum-Rohrer is a logical guess for similar voters.

Call it machine or geography but so often in PA you see a East West primary faceoff.  Not so much this year.  

Other then the Rohrer-Santorum vote will have some overlap that's my only thought. Oh Paul voters might be Rohrer types but this ad war could be pulling some from all over.  

[ Parent ]
Not exactly
Many of the Rohrer voters areas  were the most ardent Toomey areas in 2004.  Rohrer does have a home schooler following, but they are insignificant even in a Republican primary.  They will go for Santorum.

Rohrer's following is largely tied to the Club for Growth types.  Historically they have had problems with Santorum.

We really have not had an east-west primary in awhile.  We have had some establishment v. outsider and establishment v. establishment (2010 Lt. Governor) primaries though.

The State Committee endorsement is usually worth 25% by itself.  The County Committee endorsements matter depending where.  The five most important are Lancaster, York, Chester, Bucks, and Allegheny.  Welch has them all.  Rohrer has some of the other larger counties though.  Smith has nothing.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Well
who was the last uber-rich guy to run top-level statewide as a R in PA without institutional support? I can't think of anyone other than Sam Katz, who was facing 2 candidates who were much better known than Rohrer and Welch and running left of an already moderate field.

I'm not convinced that 2010 offers any valid comparisons. A protest non-Corbett vote could have very well accounted for 10-20 of Rohrer's 30 points, and Cawley only got 26% of the vote, which is not going to be enough to win this primary for sure. I remain unconvinced that the standard rules of higher spending breeding higher name rec and higher support in low-interest races don't apply here.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Heinz was a West PA
guy with bucks but he did have all the party/establishment support in 1976.

In fact he faced classic East-West Primaries & GE's with Specter and Green that year.  He used his bucks to win both races but he always had party support out west.  

He would probably be running for his 7th term in 2012 if not for fate.  He would be 74 right now.  

[ Parent ]
Heinz for President
Actually, he'd be retired after serving two terms as President. It was common knowledge that Heinz was gearing up for a 1996 Presidential run. I don't know if he would've beaten Dole or Clinton, but if he failed to beat Dole, he would've been set up for a second run in 2000.

I grew up in the East, but people I knew had enormous respect for Heinz and not much for Specter. He was seen as a back bencher  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yep
Heinz always had a big following in the southeast, but like every statewide victor since 1976 with the exception of Specter in 1980, he has had State Committee support.  Nobody has won a primary in my lifetime without the State Committee endorsement.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
This is my state senator
http://www.vosizneias.com/1038...

His tweets were actually worse than this article suggests.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

That's so racist
He should contact Gianaris to make sure that the Dems get the majority in the state Senate, and convince the 4 members of the IDC to vote for Sampson as the majority leader.  
[ Parent ]
I was liberated in redistricting
Thank God.
No more VRA district with a racist state senator.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Which leads me to the question...
How many in the Dem caucus in NY State Senate are AA and Hispanic? More than half?
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
I am lazy to check.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
More than half when you exclude the IDs
15: 9 AAs (4 Brooklyn, 2 Queens, 1 Manhattan, 1 Bronx, 1 Westchester) and 6 Hispanic (3 Bronx, 1 Manhattan, 1 Queens, 1 Brooklyn)

Which tells you exactly why Jeff Klein didn't have a prayer of being elected D Leader.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
And yes, I did that from memory
so if I missed one please correct me... and yes, I know almost all the NYS Senators by heart. You gerrymander enough you learn these things whether you want to or not.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Wow. Impressive!


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Seems like any non-AA Dem could not be elected
majority leader if the Dems take over the state Senate.

And yeah, that's why I asked that question: to figure out if Klein or Savino could be elected majority leader for the IDC to support the Dem caucus.  

[ Parent ]
Not true
The seats the GOP seats the Dems would need to win would most likely elect white Dems. So that ratio would change. Also as we've seen the break down in the Dem caucus is not so cut and dry. As we've seem last time aroung with the 4 AMIGOS the latino State Senators dont always walk arm in arm with the AA ones.

The sad part is the only guy who could keep all these bickering Dem interest groups working together was David Patterson and Elliot Spitzer had to go and make him Gov!

[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not
I think Stewart-Cousins (the only black senator in a swing district) and a few of the Hispanic senators would be willing to consider backing Klein over an underwhelming Sampson. The uber-liberals like Avella, Duane and Krueger complicate matters, though.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Actually its the uber-liberals that dislike the corrupt Sampson the most
Duane was so disgusted with Wilson & Sampson's corruption and incompetence that he even contemplated joining a coalition with the Senate GOP during the Espanda coup in exchange for the GOP agressing to pass Gay Marriage in NYS.  
[ Parent ]
Should read Smith & Sampson
(I keep mixing up my Malcom's. Its becoming a bit of teretz like tick with me!)
[ Parent ]
The sad part is this isnt even close to the worst thing Parker's done
To me his various assualt charges are a way worse offense than his racist twitter rants. At least when Parker's raging online he cant punch anyone!
[ Parent ]
SC Filing Closing Tomorrow
With one day left looks like all 5 Republican congressman will have easy races. No one of note has filed against SC-5 Mick Mulvaney, who would seem to be the most likely target of the 5. May have someone of note by tomorrow, but expect it to end up Safe R. In the open SC-7, two new additions on the R side, 2010 1st District candidate Katherine Jenerette and former Coastal Carolina football coach Gary Stephens. Will wait to see if these two go anywhere, the frontrunners remain for now Andre Bauer, Chad Prosser, Tom Rice, and Jay Jordan. At least 11 Republicans and 5 Democrats running. State Rep. Ted Vick is the frontrunner on the D side. Will have a final update on Monday.

SC1-Charleston
Ted Vick
Is he considered a strong candidate? Isn't he from the wrong part of the district?
[ Parent ]
Yes and Yes
He's from rural Chesterfield County in the far northern part. So wrong part of the district. I would call him a moderately strong candidate as he has trial lawyer connections, will raise good money, and is also a pastor who is running as a conservative blue dog Democrat. The district went roughly 53.6% for McCain, so its not safe Republican. But Horry County is the base of that district and is trending sharply Republican.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Ted Vick
[ Parent ]
Paul Ryan To Endorse Romney
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosieg...

And so the chips continue to fall.  How long will Rick and Newt stay in?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

I'm thinking
Newt: Doesn't matter. He's not getting enough of the vote to affect the outcome in WI or any other state in April.

Rick: So many of his projected delegates are from caucuses which formally select between now and the day of the PA primary that I can't see him dropping until at least the day after that.

For that matter, there is actually a tactical reason in Missouri that Romney should want Santorum to stay in until at least the 11th.

At this point, if Santorum were to drop, the Paulites would dominate the upcoming St Charles caucus [Santorum backers would largely be no-shows] and likely get at least 2/3rds of the delegates going into the state & district conventions from there.
While if Santorum is still in the race fighting hard enough Santorum supporters will show up that your more likely to either see a three way delegate split in proportion to the entry poll or a 50-50 Paul Romney split.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I don't want to jinx myself, but...
I'm convinced Santorum and Gingrich will be gone by mid-April. I suspect future Pennsylvania polls will start to find Romney defeating Santorum, probably outside the margin-of-error. The latter, foreseeing the humiliation of a home state loss, bows out. Polls after that find Santorum backers moving (surprisingly?) overwhelmingly to Romney over Gingrich, which convinces the latter to drop out in an hour-long press conference where he bashes the media and milks his final moment in the spotlight.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
You got the drop out order backwards
Gingrich has already said he expects Romney to reach a majority.
A candidate admitting that publicly is already half way out the door.

As to my predicted effect of a Santorum drop out:

Instead of going to the remaining primary polls, they'll largely stay home. Same with many of the Romney voters.
You'll disproportionality see Ron Paul voters in remaining primaries, but probably not enough to carry any of those states.

There are then a large number of causes that are ongoing.

As stated above, A Santorum dropout before St Charles county caucus basically hands the caucus over to a largely pro Ron Paul delegation to send to two district conventions and the statewide one.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Ryan for Romney
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

In an interview the other day Ryan was asked if he planned to endorse. He said that he was too busy with the budget to have time for the Presidential race. Apparently he was waiting for the right moment.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

NYC mayor 2013 GOP
http://online.wsj.com/article/...

Worth the read.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

NYC does not need
another Michael Bloomberg.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
I'm for
Whoever promises to keep Ray Kelly as police commish.
Bill Thompson had promised last time to fire him.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I'll take Bloomberg
over any NY super-liberal Dems.
[ Parent ]
It not the liberals I worry about
Bloomberg is a liberal. It's the its the incompetent crooks that are a real danger. There the ones who can really destroy NY.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
I am not a liberal but I am fine with Bloomberg.  Sure, he isn't Rudy but he is 1000x better than any of the hacks that the Dems barfed up in their primaries in 2001, 2005, and 2009. (Green, Ferrer, and Thompson...).

Having an independent executive focused on results and not caring a whit about internal party issues (and who's ego needs to be fed) is huge.

35, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the likes of Bloomberg and Allon are as good as it gets in NYC
To be fair, though, Allon strikes me as a supremely uninspiring, underwhelming candidate and he may not have the money to compete without some serious GOP fundraising. Even Kelly would probably struggle against Quinn, who has plenty of moderate support behind her, including the endorsement of Mayor Koch. I think there's probably a 90 percent chance she wins in 2013, with 5 percent to another Democrat and the other 5 to a Republican.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
NYC
You do realize thats the only kind of Republican at this point who could win NYC?  Ray Kelly is not running, regardless of how much some people want him to run.

I doubt anyone can beat Quinn anyways.

Quinn Vs. Catsadimis looks most likely.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
There is a difference
between Bloomberg and Rudy. NYC needs another Rudy. Bloomberg is completely liberal in just about every way.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
I'll take him over Quinn.
Until minorities start becoming more competive and the Ultra Orthodox Jewish kids get old enough to vote in droves, we'll have to settle for a RiNO to win. Those are more 'ifs' than 'whens' too.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yea
I have more or less came to the conclusion we will lose the Mayor's race this time.  We have had our guy win 5 times in a row.  Bloomberg is a RINO, but he still had our ballot line.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Kansas Senators dont like House map
Of course they don't.
This is ridiculous.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
The Topeka Plan?
It's the only plan that could get the votes in the House, and is much better than the Senate plan.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
The plan is fine.
What is ridiculous the bickering between the GOP caucuses in the chambers, or rather, the Senate caucus specifically.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Funniest Redistricting Ever
Any chance this ever gets thrown to the courts?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I Think That's The Way This Is Going
And not just the Congressional map, but at least the State Senate map as well. I don't think the KS liberal Republicans and conservative Republicans can get to a deal on this stuff - there's just too much riding on it.

I suspect the court will do it (and I bet they end up helping out the liberal Republicans, at least somewhat...).  

[ Parent ]
Minneapolis Mayor
http://minnesota.publicradio.o...

My first real political "job" was as a volunteer intern for major Rybak after the 05 election. I really hope that he takes a stab at the governors mansion again, because he really is the nicest most down to earth guy will ever meet. Bit he is mayor for life if he so chooses. He is immensely popular.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Surprised he didn't run in 2010
I remembered being very scared about MN going into 2010 due to how poorly Dayton was perceived when leaving the Senate.  Of course that ended up being misplaced.

But I always thought him or Coleman would make a good Governor.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
He did run in 2010
I was employed by his campaign even. In fact, I resigned my position as St. Paul Office Director for a state representative to work on that campaign. Sadly, MAK and him shared exactly the same voters, and the institutional support went to the sitting Speaker.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
2010
Yeah, I remember now, I remember being like how in the world did MAK do better, but that makes sense.

He seems like a good guy so I hope he can do whatever he feels will help the state best in the future.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
i am actually surprised she lost the primRy to Dayton
Other than presidential campaigns, and senator Klobuchar,  I have never seen a stronger ground game for any other candidate. Kelliher had a very well funded and well-oiled operation. This allowed her to parlay a caucus-day loss (albeit narrow) to a convention win (also narrow). But Rybak's folks (who actually carried the caucus) were hardly slouches. We had some serious campaign minds with us, but we got outmaneuvered pretty badly at the county-level caucuses. We got absolutely murdered in Hennepin county (home of Minneapolis, the home if both Rybak and Kelliher).  Oh well, Dayton ended up as governor. But MN-Gov 2010 was by far the strangest race I have ever been a part of (and may ever be a part of). It was 9 months of utter chaos at every level.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Nikki Haley tweet
"Sorry fellas. I'm not going anywhere no matter how many lies you put on a blog. The days of dirty blogger politics will come to an end when people stop paying these guys to spread trash."
https://www.facebook.com/Nikki...

SC1-Charleston
State Newspaper Coverage
[ Parent ]
And this article
[ Parent ]
Im glad she is fighting back
All these smear tactics against her since running for Governor have been pathetic.

25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).
[ Parent ]
PA-18: Eichelberger, Folmer endorse Feinberg
I smell bad blood between the 2 and Murphy.

http://www.politicspa.com/eich...

WI SD12: We now have a candidate
to replace retiring state Sen. Jim Holperin (D). State Rep. Tom Tiffany is running. Holperin defeated Tiffany in 2008, 51-49. This seat is viewed as a pickup opportunity for the GOP.

We now need a strong candidate to run against State Sen. Jessica King in SD18. King defeated Randy Hopper in last year's recall election. State Treasurer Kurt Schuller should change his mind and run for this seat, instead of running for AD53 (which is contained in SD18).  

NV-4
Absolutely brutal article painting Steven Horsford as Joe Walsh 2.0
http://www.lvrj.com/news/docum...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

What is the PVI of NV-4?

[ Parent ]
56% Obama
Definitely winnable with a very very liberal and corrupt D.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Also, Bush won the district
With just under 50% of the vote.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Horsford
IMO is not only too liberal for this district but his miscues on his personal habits highlights his close ties to unions and certain political donors. He can be beat.  I have to see 2010 numbers on this seat but the Obama number certainly IMO will not hold in 2012. The North side of Clark county has numerous Reid/Mormon votes that will likely not to to Horsford.  
[ Parent ]
Sounds like someone who had regular financial problems as a younger man
I'd bet this increases sympathy for Hosford among those who have been down on their luck, a rather common experience in the Vegas area.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
it'd be the first time
I don't think anyone usually says "He didn't pay his bills and parking ticket, and got a stereo installed and didn't pay for that either?  Wow, just like me, my kind of guy!"  Most people who have financial difficulties DON'T want to be reminded about them, and I don't think they want to put someone like them in power.  Just like sex scandals don't help out with people who have been cheaters.
[ Parent ]
I suggest that Nevada is different in that regard
Not only because of the big local industry, but also because of the relatively high unemployment. I suggest that for everyone who has suffered from either, there are others who think "that could be (have been) me"

How many? I don't know.

But I suggest that there are enough "riches to rags" stories in Nevada where people are beyond the "don't want to be reminded" stage.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Agree
I don't some credit problems 10 years ago hurts him that much.  Now it does beg the question if whether he had these problems before and did not get credit since preventing him from getting into trouble again.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
NY SD-27 update
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

This won't be settled so fast.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

So Storobin wound up challenging MORE ballots . . .
than Fidler??!!

This is not looking good.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I thought the same thing.  I am a little surprised by it.

35, Republican, NJ-11  
[ Parent ]
Evening Political Roundup for March 29, 2012 | 124 comments
About
Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

Inside information? Problems logging into your account? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at redracinghorses@yahoo.com
Search




Advanced Search

(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox