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Political Roundup For April 2, 2012

by: SCRep

Mon Apr 02, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

Gingrich: Though he's promised a fight all the way to the convention in Tampa, Newt Gingrich told a Wisconsin radio station that Mitt Romney "is clearly the front-runner" and "will probably" win enough delegates to secure the Republican presidential nomination.

Wisconsin: A new Rasmussen poll in Wisconsin finds Mitt Romney with a ten point lead over Rick Santorum in next week's GOP presidential primary, 44% to 34%, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul each at 7%.

More Wisconsin: Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson endorsed Mitt Romney on Sunday ahead of Wisconsin's primary. Johnson's endorsement follows fellow Wisconsin lawmaker Rep. Paul Ryan, who announced his support for Romney last week.

Senate

Massachusetts: A new Boston Globe poll finds Sen. Scott Brown edging challenger Elizabeth Warren in the U.S. Senate race, 37% to 35%, with another 26% still undecided. Both candidates are doing well among the voting blocs each needs most: Brown outpaces Warren by three to one among self described independents, while Warren holds a better than three to one lead among those who identify themselves as conservative and moderate Democrats.

House

AZ-2/8: State Sen. Paula Aboud will not run for the full term of Rep. Gabby Giffords seat, and threw her support behind former Giffords staffer Ron Barber. Barber has the Democratic nomination for the special election to himself, but will face state Rep. Matt Heinz for the full term. Those running for the GOP nomination include veteran Jesse Kelly, veteran Martha McSally, college sports broadcaster Dave Sitton and state Sen. Frank Antenori.

MD-6: Former President Bill Clinton has recorded robocalls on behalf of businessman John Delaney in the Maryland 6th district primary. Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola started the race as the heavy favorite, observers are now calling the race a tossup.

MI-14: Many in the African American Democratic establishment are backing the white candidate, Rep. Gary Peters, over Rep. Hansen Clarke. The Wayne County Democratic Black Caucus endorsed Peters on Thursday. Part of Clarke's problem may stem from his winning a primary run against former Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, which angered many African American power brokers in the Detroit Democratic establishment.

RI-1: Independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee has endorsed Rep. David Cicilline for reelection. Surveys show Cicilline is Rhode Island's least popular leading politician. A February WPRI 12 poll put his job rating at 20% favorable. Cicilline is running against Republican Brendan Doherty, who retired as superintendent of the state police. Businessman Anthony Gemma, who came in second to Cicilline in the 2010 Democratic primary, is also expected to jump into the race next month.

South Carolina: Filing closed here last Friday. SC-2 Rep. Joe Wilson has no Democratic opponent. SC-1,3,4,5 freshman Republicans all have token Democratic opponents and are safe in the Fall. The new, open SC-7 seat will see 9 Republicans and 5 Democrats run. A runoff will most likely decide both nominations, with the Republican nominee favored in November.

WA-6: Retiring Rep. Norm Dicks has endorsed state Sen. Derek Kilmer to succeed him. Democrats in the district have quickly closed ranks behind Kilmer as the successor to Dicks, who has held the seat since 1976.

Governor

Wisconsin: Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett will run for governor of Wisconsin in this summer's recall election against Gov. Scott Walker. Before facing Walker, Barrett will have to face former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, a favorite of organized labor, in a Democratic matchup. The primary will take place on May 8, with a general election to follow on June 5.

Redistricting

Kansas: The Kansas Senate rejected the recently passed House congressional redistricting map that splits Topeka between districts. Senators said the House would have to start over from scratch. With both chambers seemingly unable to agree to a map, Court intervention may be the ultimate outcome here.

Redistricting Roundup: Ballotpedia is out with its final Redistricting Roundup. 41 of 43 states have now completed congressional maps, while 45 of 50 states are finished with their state legislative maps.
SCRep :: Political Roundup For April 2, 2012
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Political Roundup For April 2, 2012 | 108 comments
RI-01
Why would Chafee do this? Is he looking for favors, or just trying to look independent.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
He's just not that smart...
NT

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
I'm fine with it.
It helps Cicilline in the primary which helps republicans in the general. Come to think of it, that could be a shrewd move by Chafee but that might be giving him too much credit.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
MD-6
Delaney is the prohibitive front-runner now.
Nobody disputed AFAIK his internal poll that showed him up big. Money can buy primaries.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

WA6
was listed by Cook as a competitive seat with a likely D rating.  In theory I have no qualms with that but the reality is the GOP bench is uber weak in that area. Unlike say WA3 or even WA10 there was only one candidate of any note on the GOP that got any mention.

I see WA6 settling in with the D frontrunner. I do note that unlike some seats this is a top get for the Ds candidate wise. Proven vote getter, well respected state senator.  This is one reason this seat gets locked up. I constrast this candidate with some other D candidates with weak resume and no or litte expierence as a candidate.

I fully admit that in WA6, OR4, OR5 and a few other seats the GOP failed to get anything near a top tier or even second tier candidate so its not just the D's who had recruiting woes.  I am still convinced that instead of the 130 or so competitive seats in 2010 that number will drop to closer to 80 this year. Between redistricting and incumbency the true battlefield is shrinking.

I don't see the Barrett-Falk primRy as bring the close
Polling is showing that Barrett has a large lead in the primary, and does as well or better in the general election. And Call did rack up some big workers' endorsements. But Barrett hardly has problems with this crowd, and I don't see members of AFSCME jumping ship away from Barrett if he is the nominee. There is no bad blood there.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
Never underestimate the stupidity of WISDEMS
It's likely that Falk (who has no chance) will win the primary since Tom Barrett is on record embracing act 10 and said Walker didn't go far enough. In retrospect, why would Democrats support a candidate who won't enact collective bargaining rights, which is the sole reason for the recall?

NY-3
[ Parent ]
And Barrett comes out with a clean campaign pledge!
W/ 37 days to Dem primary, only threat to Barrett is negative ads from Big Labor. Hence, the "Clean Campaign Pledge"

http://mediatrackers.org/2012/...

NY-3

[ Parent ]
He saved Milwaukee money
Off with his head! How dare he use Walker's reforms to help him balance the budget? Does he really think he works for the people of Milwaukee and not the unions? He should've insisted on holding the line and demanded the money from the state government!

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Democrats Can't Win on Collective Bargaining Alone
The Prosser race more or less demonstrated that. If they are going to win this has to be a more general campaign against an "out of control" GOP trifecta, probably targeted at the Fitzgeralds, but noting that Walker is at the center of it. In this sense they would want to focus on the hiring of relatives, the way redistricting was done(only important as part of a wider narrative, attacks on the GAB, etc.

Unions will be there anyway. Barrett is a better candidate because he can transcend the Labor issue, whereas Falk would be Labor's candidate.

In fact, why bother running a fake Democrat? Republicans should vote for Falk.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Fake Dem for governor
I think the GOP is hoping that the fake Dem will win in a 5-way Dem primary.

But in the state Senate races, I think the main purpose is to delay the general election by a month. If the GOP won't run fake Dems in the state Senate races, the general election is in the same day as the Dem gubernatorial primary, where Dems turn out in huge numbers.  

[ Parent ]
Fake Dem or Walker write-in?
Could the GOP write-in Scott Walker in the Dem primary? If Walker won the primary as a write-in would the recall be over? Anti-recall Dems almost won some of the senate recalls last time around. I think an anti-recall Dem or a Waker write-in would have a great chance of winning the Dem primary.
[ Parent ]
MN-7
Peterson v. Byberg. Byberg is the candidate that list to Peterson in 2010 by 18, and couldn't sniff 40%.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
Omissions
You're omitting the fact that two independent candidates pulled significant percentages. You're also omitting that Peterson got 55%, not the >60% that your statement would imply.I know you like the guy, and there is no question that he's strong, but please don't insult our collective intelligence.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I didn't imply anything
Peterson won 55-37. That is a well known and documented statistic. I certainly didn't imply that it was anything other than that. But if Byberg couldn't get north of 37% in 2010, there isn't any reason to think that without a tailwind that the results would be any better.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Goldy's right
Republican leadership here was quite upset at Hoffman's loss, and the big reason is Byberg's performance in 2010. It is expected that the NRCC will back out of the district now after it made its recent ad buy.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
[ Parent ]
Are the indies running again?
Unless you can tell me that they are, the idea that Byberg's ceiling is 37% is ludicrous. Peterson is just about a lock for reelection, but that doesn't mean that Byberg can't break 40%.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
In 2010 MN7
was assumed to be safe D. Byberg was starved for cash and he got outspent 3-1. Its a cheap media market but still 3-1 against a popular incumbent is a tall order.

Peterson's 56% got noticed.  As noted above the the competitve battle field is shrinking. It really comes down to whether B. can raise enough money to make a race of it.  Not predicting a win but if he can double or triple  that 400K from 2010 it would certainly make Peterson hustle.  

[ Parent ]
The district is rural
But rural does not mean cheap. To advertise across the entire district you need to cover multiple media markets in multiple states. The pure physical size of the district makes advertising and campaiging an issue. Peterson is a pilot with his own aircraft to campaign in the district. And to get on tv across the district you have to run ads from Minneapolis to Watertown SD, to Fargo ND. Individually, the media markets are not that expensive, but it isn't like 1 or 2 cover the district.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
I just assume with
radio and cable you can reach alot of eyes or ears with 400 or 500K. Sure Moorehead TV would mean ND TV which is not too bad.  I assumed St Cloud had some sort of TV station but apparently not. I would find other ways then to do Twin City ads as that would be hugely expensive.  
[ Parent ]
in fact, what I had said would actually PRECLUDE the possibility of getting 60%
If Byberg got less than 40s (like I stated) it is mathematically impossible for Peterson to have gotten so much as 58% since I also stated he won by 18. So not only did I not imply Peterson got 60%, it would be impossible to deduce that he could have possibly gotten 60% from what I said

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
I didn't do the math.
That's not how I generally look at election margins, since every point deducted from one participant in a two-way race (most are two-way in U.S. Congressional elections) goes to the other. I'm sorry for implying anything untoward on your part, but your constant trumpeting of Peterson (and his breed of DFLer), while accurate in some respects, wears on me. When you didn't mention the other candidates, it caused a snap reaction when I was semi-conscious. I apologize.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Santorum: I'll stop if Romney hits 1,144
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

In other news, Newt Gingrich vowed to take the fight all the way to inauguration day. "Until John Roberts stands there with a bible, I'll fight so that America can have a true conservative."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Haha
Newt will continue the fight until the 2012 winner leaves office.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Citizens United for Schweikert
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
2012 Arkansas ballot measures polled
PA-12 Insanity
PA-12
1. Wouldn't Altmire's new-found Planned Parenthood support not sit well in this district?

2. Not sure the whole maneuvering over budgets could be adequately explained so most people would understand it, even in a district where fiscal conservatism isn't too popular.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
1791 PA lines
http://www.politicspa.com/pa-s...

The Federalists clearly gerrymandered this map.

27, Republican, PA-6

PA 1791
LOL, and yes...that's a heck of a gerrymander.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Anyone Know What Book or Source They Pulled That Out Of?! (nt)

[ Parent ]
This should keep the Jacobins out
Take that Robespierre lovers!

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
I thought you said Jacobites
And I was going to laugh at the Bonnie Prince Charlie reference  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
These are county lines
Funny story, but these are the county lines, not the congressional district lines, of 1791.  So no gerrymander.
[ Parent ]
Districts were based off county lines
Apparently the Assembly was divided as well on county lines back then and the county lines were often gerrymandered to create districts that favored one grouping over another.  This goes back to William Penn and his offspring actually.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
I think just any win
in Wisconsin seals the deal this week. 5-10 point leads in most polls but until people vote you never know.  Its not a closed primary.

Big wins in MD & DC carry Romney one way or the other.  

Unlike CNN I assume nearly every uncommitted delegate is one for Romney.  

Rendell: Philly Inquirer deal announced today
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Rendell, who was formerly part of the investment group, stepped down following criticism that his political connections would influence the paper's coverage.

Was the fear that Rendell wasn't far enough left for newspaper?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
Haha
They were afraid Rendell would influence the Editorial Board from the corpoerate loving Democrat direction actually.  Apparently the Norcross clan was involved at that point too.  It would have been corporatism at its finest, which would be a significant improvement over the whiny left wing cause mentality the paper currently has.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Joe Walsh tries to sound less stupid
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I will also reiterate what I said last week, which was that I, and people of the 8th district, want to know what Tammy has done in addition to her service, and where she stands on the issues.  Wearing the uniform should immediately earn everyone's respect.  It should not, however, earn everyone's vote.  If that were the case, Ms. Duckworth and the Liberal advocacy group VoteVets would have both supported John McCain over Barack Obama.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
PA-Primary
Santorum 27, Romney 21, Paul 10, Gingrich 9

http://www.mercyhurst.edu/news...

Once the Death Star arrives, Romney will beat Santorum.

27, Republican, PA-6

Orrin Hatch is no Bob Bennett
Kyle Trygstad ‏ @KyleTrygstad
Internal poll of 335 #UTSen convention delegates for @OrrinHatch campaign: Hatch 62%, Liljenquist 16% #UTSen

Whereas Bennett didn't see a need to win convention votes, Hatch clearly has worked hard to get his supporters as delegates. I expect Hatch to clear 60% and forego a primary. He'd win a primary, but why bother if you don't have to?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

I just hope this doesn't permanently derail Liljenquist
Hatch has run a great campaign but Liljenquist still looks like a future star. Hopefully he can recover from what is increasingly looking like a big loss.
[ Parent ]
PA Voter ID - College IDs flunk the test...
http://articles.mcall.com/2012...

Fascinating enough Hillsdale used to give us stickers with expiration dates.  I am surprised universities don't do this more often.

27, Republican, PA-6

Must be a swing-state thing
I didn't know anybody that registered for vote at College. Everyone seemed to get absentee ballots (myself included) from home.

Then again, I went to school in Massachusetts.

R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Most people I know are registered at school
I think it's because there's an increased political awareness on college campuses, and campaigns/student groups make pushes to register students. Then again, most people I know here are Democrats so the Massachusetts part wouldn't deter them!

I stayed registered in Worcester because the city elections there are usually at least somewhat competitive.

[ Parent ]
Same at Hillsdale
Very few people changed their registration to Michigan. I didn't and got an absentee ballot every time.

State Party always wondered why we could not get a lot of registrations but could get a ton of volunteers.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I voted absentee at MSU
What the hell's so hard about knowing voting laws? Register where your permanent address is. If it's in at Mom and Dad's register there. If it's in College Town, register there. In Michigan, it's where your driver's license is (Irony is that it was written by my then state senator and now congressman Mike Rogers). That's not that hard, but the dems go apeschiesse over it. I was registered at the parent's house until I moved from East Lansing and has a more stable place. I commuted to law school, so it didn't effect me there.

I have no sympathy for someone's lack of effort to know the rules. None. It's not that hard.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Agree
These rules aren't that difficult.  I know far less sophisticated individuals who have voted at polling places where I have worked with ease.

Unless they are residents of that location they should not be voting there anyway.  Residency should require having a drivers license and paying taxes there.  If they want to vote there, they should be willing to have the Department of Revenue collect taxes from them there as well.  How many of these highly educated morons are voting at the wrong location?

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Romney VP picks
John Sununu
Here's John Sununu's take on it: An exciting VP? Don't go for it, Mitt.

I whole-heartedly agree, as I'm sure do the Insomniacs of America, though I'll be very impressed if they manage to find a running-mate even more boring than Mitt..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
You wait
Once they put the emotions computer chip in his brain Mr. Data Mitt will be emotional.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Romney needs boring
I have said several times.  Romney needs boring as an exciting ticket runs the risk of McCain/Palin Part II.  McDonnell, Portman, Toomey, Corbett, and maybe some Congressmen come to mind.    

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
VP Vanilla
Looking for a boring vp, why not zoidberg Pawlenty?

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
Alternative
I think Eric Cantor is a smart legislator and effective leader, but he makes Mitt look like Mr. Excitement.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Cantor
would be welcomed by Democrats.

He's not very popular and he's extremely unlikable.  He might even rival Romney.

I still think McDonnell and, barring that, Corbett or Pawlenty, would be the best choices.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Cantor
Eric Cantor is pretty much unknown by the American public. He's not popular as a result. I take offense to "he's extremely unlikable." I've met Cantor and he's very likable. I can't say that about every Republican politician I've met. He's hardly known for inflammatory rhetoric. Democrats dislike him because he leads the opposition against President Obama, something that makes him a Villain, or far worse if you believe what you read on Kos, to Democrats.

Of course I'm guessing every Republican is thought to be extremely unlikable on Kos.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
One does not simply...
...pick an exciting VP candidate.
[ Parent ]
Who was the past exciting VP to actually be elected?
Humphrey?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Humphrey was exciting and competent
Quayle was exciting.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
So you were on the VP shortlist in '08?
Please tell me how exciting you are...
[ Parent ]
The more I think about it...
I really think he should go with Condi Rice. She's a woman, black, and has plenty of foreign policy experience. She would help with the gender gap, but also shores up Romney's weaknesses when it comes to foreign affairs.

Sure, the pro-life activists would go nuts, but really, where are they going to go? I doubt they would sit this cycle out, so they are just going to have to suck it up and hope Romney follows through on his pledge to pick conservative judges.

And I cannot imagine her being in the Bush administration will hurt that much either. She always polled favorably even when Bush was down in the high 20's/low 30's.

Overall, his narrative would then be that we are competent, and they are not. I think it would give his campaign enough buzz, but also add stability at the same time.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Rice
I think that Rice's problem on social issues may be overblown. She takes largely a libertarian point-of-view. As a libertarian I'm well aware of how my positions on some issues differ from the party line, but she is evangelical (and proud of it!)and isn't an advocate on abortion or gay marriage. She can easily sell, "My record shows that I support my President and my party."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Yup -- one recent example
http://www.losaltosonline.com/...

Rice, met with warm applause by the more than 700 guests in attendance, began by responding to the question, "How did your faith serve you?"

The daughter of a pastor, Rice was literally born in her father's church in Birmingham, Ala. Raised by a caring Presbyterian mother and father, Rice noted an early revelation that faith and reason aren't enemies of one another.

"Father always allowed for the possibility of doubt in faith," she said, which enabled her to question and better understand the workings of God.



Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
I seriously doubt she'd say yes


24, M, VA-11, moderate R
[ Parent ]
I'd love this, but I kinda doubt she wants it
I, too, think the pro-life community would come to accept a Romney-Rice ticket (moreso than McCain-Lieberman) and her inclusion would surely send shivers down the Obama camp's spine. But I see little indication she's clamoring for a return to the spotlight.  

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
If offered, I think she takes it
She could have sat out in 2010, but helped out Whitman/Fiorina (although not as enthusiastically as she could have).

The chance to make history wouldn't be taken lightly and if Romney makes it clear why he needs her, I think she will oblige.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Ryan
I watched a Fox(?)interview a few days ago of Romney and Ryan, and was struck at how the two men were dressed alike.  Both had plaid/checkered shirts, a similar open-body stance, an easy-going banter between them, etc. Although there's a big age difference between Romney and Ryan, they seemed like brothers, strangely.  

I couldn't help but think that Ryan was the veep choice.

A proud and scared business owner

[ Parent ]
High Profile
Romney has endorsed Ryan's plan. Yet picking him as VP would mean that Ryan's budget is front and center. The concern is that Ryan is one of the few Republicans who have a higher profile than Romney has. I don't think any President wants a VP that has a higher profile than he has. Romney/VP should be about Romney's plans.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Romney's tied himself rather tightly around the Ryan plan, anyway
Regardless of whether he's on the ticket or not, Democrats will throw knives at Romney over wanting to take granny's social security away and throw her body off the top of a ferris wheel. But, besides exciting fiscal conservatives, who'll be with Romney anyway, I dunno if he adds that much to the ticket. He won't flip Wisconsin for Romney, I don't think.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Good point
It never occurred to me that Romney may be threatened by Ryan's "popularity."  

Of course, that would apply to rubio, christie ... and many other potential veeps.

Perhaps this leaves romney with a woman veep, for in his worldview, a woman can't overshadow a man.  

A proud and scared business owner

[ Parent ]
It's not the candidate. It's the issue.
andyroo312, he can make the Ryan plan into the Romney plan if he doesn't pick Ryan. If he does, it's Ryan who is out front.

While Rubio or Christie certainly have popularity, they don't have controversial issues. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are similar to Ryan in that there is something about them that's bigger than the candidate. The election would become about the Ryan plan or another Bush or taking on unions instead of about Romney.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I'm thinking it'll be either Jindal or Portman
No matter what, Romney will not throw the dice on this. He's not a risk-taking maverick like McCain, who somehow found himself torn between two hail mary picks, Lieberman and Palin. Hence, I can't fathom he'll seriously consider relative amateurs like Rubio, Martinez, Christie, Ayotte, etc. And his team in Boston surely won't be pressuring him to go bananas with a eye-popping pick.

If Romney wants to shake things up a little, it's Jindal. If he doesn't, which I suspect will prove the case, it's Portman, McDonnell or Thune. But Romney's so safe and calculated, McDonnell's thesis woes might prove too much to swallow.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Portman
There are already reports that Romney's strategists are ruling out Bush admin vets. I think Jindal may be excluded from this tho, since his service was in HHS and for little over a year. Portman is directly tied to Bush's spending. Substitute Portman for T-Paw tho and I think that's a solid list. And I still believe Cathy McMorris Rodgers will emerge as a dark horse pick.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Reports?
Link
[ Parent ]
SC- Tom Davis For Senate Speculation
Coakley's kind of stretching...
Tim Cahill INDICTED for spending lottery advertising on lottery advertising.  I remember these ads and they really weren't pro-Cahill.  No doubt he wanted to get some exposure, but I guess we should indict every Governor who puts up the "Welcome to Maryland.  Governor Martin O'Malley".

http://www.boston.com/Boston/p...

IN-Sen
David Jarman at DKE has a nice piece summarizing Lugar's residency issues. http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
DKE
It is a nice analysis, but like everything at DKE they can't just give an analysis. They have to bash Republicans.

what that really means is that he's guilty of the charge of actually trying to legislate and working cordially with Democrats, as opposed to playing the GOP's new game of mindless monkeywrenching.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
DKE leaders take pride in being progressives and Democrats
news flash?

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
And we're conservatives and Republicans
You don't see us bashing Democrats the way they do Republicans. Certainly some of the posters here are critical of some Democrats, but that's neither universal or common. And we rarely use such derogatory terms. I'm sure many of us have said very unkind things about Nancy Pelosi, but there isn't much shot taking on here. While we may ridicule some progressives ideas, we don't tend to degrade them. Most DKE posts I read are full of that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Alright, this isn't DKE
So unless we're discussing Jarman's article on Lugar, let's not spend time talking about the way they do things over there.  
[ Parent ]
I'll have to disagree
"Most" is totally off base for sure.  Some, yes some posts ridicule and degrade conservative ideas (Mostly front pagers), but certainly not most.

I'd venture to say very close to the same percantage happens here.  I've seen Moderators here make the same type of posts that are being talked about here, along with regular posters.  This of course in no one means most or even a lot of the people at all.

I would also the deletion policy here is much more agressive here than DKE.  I have had a ton of non-offensive posts that added to the discussion which were deleted (By the same Moderator I am pretty sure).

My point is, I think a lot of the stuff happens on both sites and both sites are still great.  Just ignore the garbage.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Sorry
Didn't see BP's post above, disregard.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Deletions
By rule, we don't delete non-offensive posts that add to the discussion. Stuff that gets deleted is either:

1. Blatantly offensive
2. Dem cheerleading/talking points
3. Repetitive drivel that adds nothing and irritates everyone

We've also cut back significantly on deleting comments. If you ever wonder why something is deleted, please do email us.

[ Parent ]
DKE
DKE doesn't delete anything, fwiw.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
NY-13
Espaillat in officially. This could be very, very interesting. http://www.dnainfo.com/2012040...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
FL-9: Quinones vs. Grayson may actually happen!
http://articles.orlandosentine...

Plus, with a hispanic democratic-leaning independent, Quinones may be well positioned to win this. Keep in mind that George W. Bush won this district (barely), while Rubio and Jeb Bush have won this district with a decent cushion.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Quiñones v. Grayson: An interesting article
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/ne...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Call me crazy, but...
I think Quinones would intantly make this race a tossup against Grayson. And if he proves himself - along with the independent candidate genuinly pulling from Grayson's support - I could see this being a lean GOP takeover.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Quinones would be really helped . . .
if the pro-GOP superpacs played here.  
[ Parent ]
Quinones is in
http://articles.orlandosentine...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
NY-6 Grab Bag
Rory Lancman gets endosements from Ed Koch http://www.politicker.com/2012...

and the WFP. http://www.politicker.com/2012...

Elizabeth Crowley says she's raised over $100K in the last 10 days. http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Wow
I thought this primary was going to go south after Meng rolled out her wave of endorsements. But it's going to be quite the fun little contest. Can't help but think that Crowley's last name is going to help her.
[ Parent ]
The question will be . . .
how many Queens Asians are registered and will they turn out to vote.  The Jews in Queens are almost all registered and have very high turnout.  
[ Parent ]
WPF for Lancman could he Halloran's path to victory
coming true. Halloran needs a split Dem field in the GE and lots of bitter feelings. So if Meng can get the Indy line here and Crowley can win Dem primary you could have all 3 Dems on the ballot in Nov vs Halloran!
[ Parent ]
The GOP bench for NYC mayor in 2013
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

Tom Allon, business (likely to switch parties and run, but looks very weak to me)
John Catsimatidis, businessman (says he'll run only if nobody else does)
Martin Golden, state senator (very unlikely to run)
Ray Kelly, NYPD commissioner (very unlikely to run)
Eva Moskowitz, former city councilwoman (possible dark horse, I guess)
Merryl Tisch, NYS Board of Regents chancellor (very unlikely to run)

Supposedly, the GOP's eying a female candidate here to go head-to-head with Christine Quinn, the Dem front-runner. Hence, the random Moskowitz name drop.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Moskowitz was my former city councilwomen . . .
but she was a proud (liberal) Democrat for her entire political career -- including her failed run for borough president a few years back.  

Unlike Bloomberg, she has had a multi-campaign political career as a Manhattan Democrat. I would think she would have a better chance winning in a split, multi-candidate Dem primary.  Without Weiner, she might be the only major Jewish Dem primary candidate.  (Unless, Stringer (who beat Eva for Manhattan borough president) decides to run.  

[ Parent ]
Moskowitz was also Carolyn Maloney's campaign manager
and a public school teacher before she won her city council seat. She's a Democrat on every issue but she believes quality education for children and actively took on the teachers union on the city council (which is unheard of in NYC) and she now runs a charter school (which the Union wants to close). So Moskowitz is basically the teacher's union's public enemy number 1.
[ Parent ]
Being an enemy of the teacher's union . . .
hardly makes a life long Dem a prospective GOP candidate.
[ Parent ]
KS
I think it's either time for either the Kansas Congressional delegation to get together and propose lines to send to the legislature or time for someone in the National party that's trusted by both the KS house & senate leadership to come in and broker a peace deal.

The last thing I want to see is a court drawn Congressional map there.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

court drawn
I am inclined to think that a court drawn map would be similar to what happened in connecticut- least change map.
[ Parent ]
exactly; which is why I don't like the idea of turning KS to the court
First the Witchita district gets rightsized by losing a county or tow, but minor.

Then far western district expands as its so underpopulated. Very easy to have it be all solid R counties gained.

Next the KC district gets expanded for proper population.

Net result:
2 Republican districts (solid) & 1 Lean Republican [vulnerable in a D wave] & 1 tossup [vulnerable even in neutral years].
(in an open seat situation ignoring incumbents.)



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Is R+8 Really "Lean Republican"?
I understand that KS-02 was not so long ago held by a Dem. But the Dem bench in KS is pretty lousy, and I have a hard team seeing an R+8 being all that vulnerable even if 'open', esp. with the modern national Dem party (i.e. a national party that won't play well in Kansas - do you really want to elect someone who's going to vote for the Nancy Pelosi agenda?!).

Sure, I could see such a seat going down if open in a big Dem 'wave' year.

But, aside from that, I think the odds of losing such a seat are low. I'd call it "Likely Republican" 90% of the time.  

[ Parent ]
Two factors
1. The far western district is substantly under populated, and almost all the counties in 02 that touch that far western district are the more Republican than average.
So I'm thinking you lose four points of PVI to #2 easily if such a court map avoids Manhattan.

2. McCain's number in rural Kansas is inflated compared to generic R.



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Yup
You can easily draw a 49% Obama KS-03 with a 47% Obama KS-02.



Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
A Court Isn't Going To Draw Such a Gerrymandered KS-02...
...and 47% Obama is still R+6.

IOW, KS-03 can't get worse than R+6 (unless they draw it into K.C.).

That seat will not be seriously in play outside of a D 'wave' year.  

[ Parent ]
Well
You can tidy up the lines between KS-01 and KS-02 without significantly changing its performance. You can also shift KS-04 a couple counties eastward so KS-02 can pick up more of Manhattan.

But, yes, R+6 sounds like the best case for Democrats, though that's a great improvement over R+10. It's a lot easier to envision a Democrat doing 3% better than Obama than it is to envision a Democrat doing 7% better than Obama.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Political Roundup For April 2, 2012 | 108 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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