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Morning Political Roundup for April 10, 2012

by: James_Nola

Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


President

Gingrich: Gingrich is focusing all of his attention leading up to April 24 on...Delaware. Nevermind that he was born and raised in Pennsylvania, he believes Delaware is where he can make a break through. I suppose he is counting on the O'Donnell formula: huge margins out of the more southern (in both geography and culture) counties of Kent and Sussex. Unfortunately for him, O'Donnell has endorsed Romney. Former Rep. Bob Walker, a Gingrich supporter, also seems to be hinting that Gingrich wants a big role at the convention, and that could possibly get him out of the race.

Michigan: A new EPIC-MRA poll has Obama leading Romney 47-43.

Veepstakes: Rule out Susana Martinez. She gives perhaps the most convincing denial of interest, and the hardest to back out of: "The family has to be a consideration, and for me to take [my sister] to Washington would be to separate her from ... the family that's down there, and that would be devastating," Martinez said. "I just couldn't do it." Martinez's sister has a development disability.

Americans Elect: Americans Elect, the group pushing for ballot access in all 50 states, is laying off staff to save costs and delaying its online convention to pick a Presidential/Vice Presidential nominee until May.

Senate

Indiana: Sen. Dick Lugar is under a fresh round of attack ads from both the NRA and the Club For Growth. The man has had a long, distinguished career. Why didn't he just retire gracefully and let someone more impressive than Mourdock replace him?

New Mexico: Rep. Martin Heinrich raised $490k last quarter, and had $1.6 million CoH. Hopefully he is forced to spend a big chunk of that in the primary.

Minnesota: Pete Hegseth has easily taken the fundraising lead in this race, raising $160k in his first month as a candidate.

Arizona: Businessman Wil Cardon- who is running against Rep. Jeff Flake from the right, particularly on the issue of immigration, is up with $268k of ads touting his hard line position on immigration.

Arkansas: Someone's looking ahead to 2014: Sen. Mark Pryor says he will not campaign for Obama this year. His likely opponent, Rep. Tim Griffin, has endorsed Romney.

House

FL-26: Businesswoman Gloria Romero Roses (D) is running against scandal plagued Rep. David Rivera (R). Democrats appear to be rallying around her, but I have to think they'd do better with a Cuban than a Colombian.

CA-02: An internal poll for Assemblyman Jared Huffman (D) shows him with a strong lead in the June primary: He leads with 24%, with no other candidate breaking 10%.

NY-18: Attorney Sean Patrick Maloney (D) raised $320k in his two months as a candidate.

FL-16: Ethically challenged Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) raised $484k last quarter and has $1.5 million CoH.

NJ-08: Rep. Steve Rothman outraised Rep. Bill Pascrell in their nasty member vs member primary battle. Rothman raised $540k in the first quarter to Pascrells's $510k. Rothman has about $1.8 million CoH; Pascrell has not released his CoH figure.

Other

Arizona Redistricting: The DoJ has precleared the Mathismander :(  

James_Nola :: Morning Political Roundup for April 10, 2012
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Oofda
160k for a senate race is not a lot of cash. I am surprised that Bills and Severson couldn't raise more with their political connections from their time in St. Paul.

Last time Minnesota had a senate election, each candidate raised over 20 million. Don't see that happening this time around.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


IN-Sen
Who did you have in mind as being more impressive than Mourdock? Pence is obviously going to be governor, I don't consider Rokita particularly impressive, Zoeller doesn't seem to be too ambitious, and all the rest are probably not well enough known to make the statewide leap.

Mourdock is very much the right guy to take on Lugar IMO; his strength is that he's so generic and inoffensive it's hard to find much of anything to attack the guy on. That's why Lugar has been attacking Mourdock for being friends with "DC Outsider" groups (perhaps the first time in my memory anyone's been attacked for being a "DC Outsider").

R - MD-7


Bosma
While I don't want to speak for the roundup's author, I think Brian Bosma, the current IN House Speaker, has enough exposure for the Right-to-Work battle to run statewide.  He did upset Big Labor, but I don't see the Democrat bench strong enough to beat him.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Mitch Daniels will be unemployed in Jan 2013
Pence might have run for Senate instead of Gov..

Just saying!


[ Parent ]
Daniels
Mitch Daniels just had a major issue of a half billion dollars of tax collection error that should be been given to the counties.  Daniels has handled the issue well and fired the responsible parties, so he would have been ok in a Senate race.  However, I couldn't imagine how the issue would have played nationally of Daniels were currently the GOP presidential frontrunner.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Becky Skillman
Or Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Bennett, or even Marlin Stutzman.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Stutzman would probably be a strong candidate IMHO
He overperformed in the 2010 Senate primary coming in second place after starting the race a total unknown.  former Senator Coats won with 39%, unknown state Senator Stutzman 29%, former congressman Hostetler 23%.  He created a positive image for himself and then easily won the 3rd district race when Souder resigned.  
I no longer reside in Indiana and I'm not as familiar with Bennett or Skillman.  Coats will be 73 when he is up for re-election in 2016.  Of course that is somewhat youthful by Senate standards.  Should he decide to retire again any of these could potentially be strong candidates.

IL-11/M/44/Libertarianish Independent

[ Parent ]
NY-18
Do we know Hayworth's CoH? This district moved a point to the left in redistricting, but Republicans do well here and Hayworth has the IP line.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Witnesses say Doheny was interviewing campaign aide at D.C. bar
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

How is it a scandal when no one has a problem?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Hmm
A staffer in the Capitol Hill Congressional office I spent two summers in was from North Country. I know he had said something about having had gone back up to NY for a a brief time to help Jane Corwin or something like that. Maybe it's him. I don't think he has ever actually worked in a NY Member's office though, as the article states, so it's probably not actually him.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It not a scandal
Its a smear job and character assasination.  

[ Parent ]
ABC/WaPo Poll
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Go to the bottom and tell me I'm reading this wrong. Is this poll really 34%D/23%R/39%I? Seriously? Why do so many polls favor Democrats this much?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Why poll on Easter Weekend?
It's like polling over Memorial Day Weekend or Labor Day Weekend.

[ Parent ]
Heh
Kirk's campaign accidentally polled over Rosh Hashanah or Yom Kippur in 2008. I remember that Jewish liberals and Dan Seals tried to make it into a campaign issue but no one really cared. The polling numbers were fairly accurate, though.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
No Jew is going to be rude to a pollster on Yom Kippur
Kinda defeats the purpose of asking for atonement.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
way more D than 2008
actually it's encouraging for Romney to be this close in such a pro-Dem sample.
Another example of the mainstream media trying to manufacture a pro-Obama narrative.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Adjusted
Adjusting to 40%D/37%R/23%I puts it at 49%-47% Obama.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Hot Air makes a point about ABC"s March poll...
that showed Romney leading. In March the D advantage was 4% not the 11% in this poll.

http://hotair.com/archives/201...


[ Parent ]
CA-2: 45%D/10%R vote
Why do all these Democrats come out with polls that appear to have Republicans voting Democratic? Either they are saying that Republicans are disproportionally undecided or they didn't bother to include many Republicans. Brown won this district 63%-30%. Not only will a Republican finish top two, but Dan Roberts is likely to finish with the most votes.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

LCL
Posted a diary you should probably look at considering it has to do with CA Congressional vote shares, one of your favorite statistics.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Strategic voting
I know quite a few Republicans that are considering picking the least liberal Democrat. I'm undecided at the moment, and my family has no idea (5 others), so we could go Republican since there isn't much difference between Huffman, Lawson, and to a lesser degree Solomon.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Strategic voting
When I did my non-scientific poll on here 3 out of the 13 people said they'd vote for the least liberal Democrat, 21%. I don't know if I agree with that number but it could be right. That'd turn a 63-30 district into 67-24, not 45-10.

I'd think Huffman would be more mainstream than Lawson or Solomon. They are really far left.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Like you said
Non-scientific, so I wouldn't go far into analysis.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen. New Poll has Gillibrand at 41% against Turner
That is 41% ahead.

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-yo...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Weak numbers for Obama amongst Jews
His favourability is only 49/47 and his re-elect numbers are 46/51. Obama wins the Jewish vote by a 50-45 margin against Romney... these numbers are very hard to believe, probably just a small sample (11% of the electorate).

[ Parent ]
includes many ultra Orthodox
NY's Jews are not representative of the nation as a whole, or even close to it.

I believe the numbers for NY.  I don't believe them at all for any other state. (not that the pollster said they'd apply)

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
assuming random sample of 100 Jews in the sample
Which would be approximately what would have responded with the sample size and demographics would be ~9.8%. So the MoE is quite high with a small sample size.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
25% have no opinion of her
and probably an even higher % dont know who the GOP candidates are. In that poll 49% of REGISTERED voters either have a negative opinion or no opinion of her.

Chance are Gillibrand will win with 60% of the vote. But I think if she was given any REAL electoral opposition in either the Dem primary or the GE she could be beaten.

Lucky for her every Dem in NYS took a pass and the GOP have only run C listers against her.


[ Parent ]
Turner is a C-lister now?
I remember people crowing Rather loudly that he is a superstar recruit that would go toe-to with Gillibrand. I don't see where the meme that she is weak came from, honestly. I UBS seen no evidence of electoral weakness by her, even going back to her house days.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Turner is at best a B-lister
He's basically a some dude who rode a perfect storm to a 1 year stint in Congress. Turner is basically an unknown but he's a heck of a lot better than the other dreck that was running against Gilly so in that sense he's a good get. Afterall Turner did catch lightning in a bottle once.

[ Parent ]
I don't recall anybody here
crowing that Turner was a superstar recruit that could really compete with Gillibrand. I recall people thinking he was a competent candidate who would do better than any of the other names that had been mentioned and acquit himself well in the campaign, but I don't think anybody said he would actually make the race winnable.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Cain Backs Romney
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


The people, Colbert, Gingrich, Romney
That's more than I've made this cycle!

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Ugh
What a RINO.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Branstad Also For Romney
I'd assume. He's holding a news conference at 12:30 on the Presidential nomination, and he said before if Romney won WI it'd be time to get behind him.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Does anyone else think
Branstad could be the strongest VP pick?

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Ha
As I was posting that, I was thinking, "Why is no one mentioning him for Veep?" He'd certainly help in Iowa, and no one will question whether he is qualified.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Exactly.
I think he'd make a much better "safe pick" then Portman, being a). more charismatic without overshadowing Romney b). better qualified c). less controversial d). more of a known quantity e). would actually possibly deliver a swingish state, compared to Ohio, where apparently no one even knows who Portman is f). reinforces his positives g). much harder to associate with the Bush Admin. and at the very least not known in the media as "Bush's Budget guy" h). he's catholic, which will help in PA i). has military service, always a plus j). probably the most popular Governor from the class of '10, and picking someone from that class might help satiate conservatives k). Iowa is booming l). won't be lambasted as pandering to a swing state m). reinforces Romney's message he's an economic fixit man n). known as a moderate in a year where Romney doesn't have to worry about bleeding conservatives

I'm really not from the group that think that it strengthens the ticket to pick someone who has nothing in common with the candidate, if you want to get any electoral milage out of the pick I think you need to reinforce your core message, which is one of the reasons why I still think Obama should have picked Sebelius. If Romney picks someone like Rubio it's just going to be lambasted as pandering, which just reinforces the negative attacks on Romney. (and you have to think after 2008 Romney's team will be rather cautious tapping an "?" freshman for VP) After all, if Romney has one primary goal it should be to stake out territory, and if he wants to be an economic fixit-man then pick Branstad. When your entire problem is that no one thinks you're reliable or consistent why in God's name would you pick someone who breaks up the entire image you're trying to build? It makes no sense. Just look at how it derailed McCain (although to be fair could almost get away with Palin if you think that his core message was ""Maverick" and not "Experience" -- and he had the problemthat he was already known as too much of a moderate to be able to tap Lieberman -- but Romney doesn't have that problem at all with his pick).

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
It's because Branstad has a mustache
Just cant see America electing a mustache wearing VP!

[ Parent ]
Makes it official
https://twitter.com/#!/TerryBr...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
TX-Pres: Ron Paul goes on the air
"Ron Paul... a big, bold Texan."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


TX-Pres?
Heh, didn't realize Texas had gone independent like Rick Perry threatened. :p

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Rural South Central Missouri's reaction to Perry's speech
Good idea, if you follow thru; we'll join you.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Obama to paint Romney as "weird"
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

This article is from way back in August. Politico has its issues, but this is almost prophetic it seems. At the time, everyone said, "No way Obama would campaign like that." After the last week, does anyone have any doubt this will be Obama's tactic?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Article suggests an inverse 2004 strategy
In a move that will make some Democrats shudder, Obama's high command has even studied former President George W. Bush's 2004 takedown of Sen. John Kerry, a senior campaign adviser told POLITICO, for clues on how a president with middling approval ratings can defeat a challenger.


Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: FWIW Rasmussen Reports has Warren leading 46-45
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Interesting
They had Brown up 5 at the end of February, which was the same margin everyone else was finding. This is 2 out of 3 polls that Warren has been leading in now. I think the boomlet that Brown got from the STOCK act is running out and this race is back to where it was before.

[ Parent ]
Or
It speaks louder about how erratic automated polling can be.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I'm very interested to see what the university pollsters find in their next round of surveys: Lowell, WNEU, and especially Suffolk, which has had two excellent cycles in a row now.

[ Parent ]
PA-Legislature
http://www.politicspa.com/capi...

Sounds like Costa and his Senate clowns might get what is coming to them on Senate redistricting.  The House sounds like a wash.

28, Republican, PA-6


McEwen ruled in favor of the Dems in the state House?
That's not good, I think.  

[ Parent ]
Tony Strickland: CA26th
As per Kyle Trygstad: Holy moley. State Sen Tony Strickland (R) raised $770k in Q1

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

Not really a surprise
He ran for statewide office before, has a lot of supporters, and is the most popular politician with party faithful. That might be a larger haul than any open seat candidate in California, even those who were raising money all last year.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Isn't he close to Whitman?
I know she recruited him to run for Comptroller again, so I'd assume she is helping him raise $$

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Not helpful
I'm not aware of a connection. She's never had anything to do with the Republican party and didn't even vote.

Whitman raised comparatively little money for her gubernatorial run. She spent her own cash. People don't give to self-funders and she wasn't turning over any rocks.

Strickland has an amazing email list and he has a lot of support. He's conservative enough for the Tea Party but he's also part of the Republican establishment.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Warren 46%-45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

It's from Rasmussen, however, and we all know their polls are worthless. I'm sure the Netroots will just ignore it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


NC: Romney 34, Santorum 30, Gingrich 17, Paul 11
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

CO-Pres: Obama up 13 on Romney.
Romney trails 53-40: Link (WARNING: pdf)

Survey of registered voters: 36D/35R/30I, Obama approval 50/47, Romney fave's 31/60.

Obama up 72-17 with voters under 30.

Perhaps not unexpectedly Ron Paul is showing strength in the mountain west, as he actually does the best here trailing Obama by only five points at 47-42.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Of course in CO
you would think a registered voter poll might come close to the 37%R-31.5%D voter registration breakdown.

Call me crazy but 36% is  higher then 31.5%.  Should be a 5.5% GOP gap as opposed to a 1% deficit.

Paul might be leading Obama if the voter ID numbers were not skewed so to the left.

You would think PPP, since they are asking about party registration info, could match party registration stats.

I guess that's just asking for too much from them.

If I was a dancer I would call this dance the PPP two step.  It starts off with a step to the left and then another step to left. Then repeat in again in every poll.  


[ Parent ]
The 2010 Senate exit poll suggests a 5 point D lead
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20... (33/28/39, D/R/I)

In 2008, it was 30/31/39 (D/R/I) -- which suggests either a problem with exit polls (possible) or a turnout problem for Rs.

The '04 exit poll was more consistent with the registration figures, ref http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"


[ Parent ]
Romney Releases First FL General Election Web Video
http://www.mittromney.com/embe...


Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


MO-Sen: McCaskill raised a pretty monster $2.3mil.
$6mil COH.

https://twitter.com/#!/FixAaro...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


RCP new 2012 map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Obama up on Romney 271-181.

CO and VA should be lean D.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


WI-lt. Gov:
Republican State Leadership Committee goes on the air for Kleefisch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


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