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Evening Political Roundup for April 10, 2012

by: James_Nola

Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 16:50:02 PM EDT


Romney: Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad got his shot in right before the buzzer with his endorsement of Mitt Romney today, about 1 hour before Santorum dropped out. He was the last before Santorum's drop out, and Florida Gov. Rick Scott is the first to endorse Romney after Santorum's exit. Lindsey Graham followed soon after.

Massachusetts Senate: Rasmussen has Elizabeth Warren back on top: 46-45.

Missouri Senate: Sen. Claire McCaskill continues her impressive fundraising, raising $2.3 million last quarter and ending with nearly $6 million in the bank. She'll need every penny.

CA-26: A monster first quarter haul from Sen. Tony Strickland (R)- $770k.

Virginia Lt. Gov: Prince William Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R), who earlier considered a US Senate run, will run for Lt. Gov next year.  
James_Nola :: Evening Political Roundup for April 10, 2012
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Evening Political Roundup for April 10, 2012 | 65 comments
Toomey for Romney
Unlike Scott and Graham, I think this one was happening before Santorum dropped:

http://www.politicspa.com/toom...

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

As does Jindal
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Yep
It was clear Toomey was giving Santorum time to end this before being part of the nuclear war in Pennsylvania.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Newt Gingrich stiffs Utah
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/p...

Gingrich's campaign makes Santorum's look like a well-oiled machine. Haven't Republicans run for office before?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Gingrich's campaign is heavily in debt
So its on a shoe string.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
CA-26
Will Strickland need to drain some of that cash to keep Parks out of the top two? I would see it as a prudent expenditure, but it might hurt him in the GE.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
CA-26
I don't know what he's going to do, but Parks is probably his toughest opponent. I'm sure Strickland will spend money on the primary. I think he's close to 100% guaranteed top two, but you don't go on that. He could run anti-Parks ads. That wouldn't be unusual.

Do they know how to run against her? Clearly what they did in 2010 with Audra Strickland didn't work. Paint Parks as too liberal and you risk her getting more Democratic votes. You paint her as wishy washy centrist, that could work too. They'd have to go after her on a vulnerability and I would've guessed they would've found that in 2010.

What you really need is for a Democrat, Brownley?, to really consolidate the Democratic vote. If I were Parks I'd paint Brownley as an extremist from Santa Monica who doesn't know Ventura County. One reason people live in Ventura county is because it isn't Los Angeles. I'm sure there are Netroots there, but not like there is in Santa Monica.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
LTGov:
I have to think Stuart probably has the race to himself, no?

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
LTGov and Gov Races
The article mentions Pete Snyder, the Chairman of the VA Victory 2012 effort, is a potential GOP candidate for LTGov. He has made a fortune in tech companies and has connections to Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell. Stuart would seem to have the early advantage due to name recognition.

I'm concerned that both Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are gubernatorial candidates. Cuccinelli should be running for reelection as AG. I think the gubernatorial primary figures to be divisive. The only candidate I've heard for the Dems is Terry McAuliffe. He massively outspent his primary gubernatorial competitors in 2009 and lost. Voters are probably turned off by him now.  However, I still think a divisive GOP primary hurts the Republicans ability to keep the Virginia governor's seat in the R column.

[ Parent ]
Keith Fimian
I've heard Keith Fimian, two-time House candidate in VA-11, is thinking about running. Presumably they would compete for the NOVA vote in that case.

24, M, VA-11, moderate R
[ Parent ]
Fimian
The article mentioned that he announced Monday that he had decided against entering the race.
[ Parent ]
Foster Friess Will $upport Romney
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

It's a little known fact that Friess, Santorum's Super PAC Sugar Daddy, had donated to Romney in May. He has not decided how he will help Romney, but it may come in the form of donations to Crossroads, or Restore Our Future.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

Will Friess send a Dark (money) Bomb Obama's way?
Any of you that got the Star Wars reference are at least as geeky as I am.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Death Star
The Death Star remains over Pennsylvania waiting for a target to appear.  I think Romney should still carpet bomb Pennsylvania just to start off the general election with some flare.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Wait, you read the novels?
You've now been outed as an uber-geek.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
You guys know you are geeks
When I am calling you a geek.
[ Parent ]
Wait. I don't get it. And I was quite the Star Wars geek
when I was younger.  
[ Parent ]
The only thing that involves carpet bombing and a bomb
that I can think of isn't a novel.  
[ Parent ]
In the later (and current) novels,
'dark bombs' are a special Jedi weapon of choice. A dark bomb is a proton torpedo with a a launching charge (just enough to push it out of the firing port), but without a propulsion system. Jedi use the Force to move them into position, then detonate them for a devastating surprise attack. Because they have no heat signature, most sensors can't detect them, and Jedi usually use the Force to further mask their presence.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Ah, cool. What in-universe time are we talking?
Assume I'm familiar with the Star Wars timeline. Is this some of the really new stuff that's like 150 years after the movies?  
[ Parent ]
Nothing that late.
That's all comics. I go by the novels. Dark bombs are developed during the Yuuzhan Vong War (25-29 ABY). I'm in the Fate of the Jedi book series right now, which is the latest one (about 40 ABY).

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
MN-SD-20
Polls close at 8 PM Central. I may run a short live-blog if there is interest.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
Is this
A chance for a flip?  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Somewhat, but it's probably at least Lean D.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
It is an ancestrally F (In the DFL mold) district
Lots of Peterson/Walz types here. And the DFL has a far superior candidate in 10-year state representative (who represents 50% of SD-20, as HDs are nested 2-in-1 per SD), and the Republicans have the 2010 candidate who lost to Kubly by 14. Republican's aren't contesting this seat really, as the seat is being divvied up among other senate districts following redistricting, and Koenen (if victorious) will be running against Senator Gimse, which will likely be one the the marquee senate races in 2012.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Every Candidate Endorsed by God Has Now Lost to Mitt Romney
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2...

Everyone claims Romney is weak.  That is wrong.  He has beat every candidate endorsed by God so far.

27, Republican, PA-6

Liberal group attacks Fitzpatrick as tea partier
http://www.phillyburbs.com/new...

Really?  Is this the best they got?

27, Republican, PA-6

Two years ago
Two days before the election I had a long conversation on film with a very opinionated Tea Partier (Are there any other kind?). He said he didn't trust Mike Fitzpatrick, was certain he was still a RINO and they were likely to primary him in 2012.

Maybe I've been gone too long, but I've never thought of Bucks County as big on progressives. That might work in some parts of Montgomery County, but not Bucks. And the challenger isn't very strong.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yep
Fitzpatrick is the bland non-offensive sort of moderate Irish Catholic people in Bucks County people love.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Still amazed they went for Murphy twice
I would have guessed that a Democrat out of that district would have been more of a John Adler type, not a netroots darling.
[ Parent ]
You're reading him wrong
Murphy may have been favored by the Netroots, but he was an Iraq War veteran. That's going to go over well in Bristol. He grew up in the Northeast and went to community college in the district. He was a 700 level security guard. That's going to sell anywhere in the Delaware Valley. If you can talk Philly, you'll do fine.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Agree
Murphy in his first two terms played up his blue collar moderate image really well.  He went gangbusters progressive his second term though.

The reason Fitzpatrick is viewed as a right winger in PA-8 is that he is pro-life.  The majority of Republicans in PA-8 are pro-choice.  Now most of them don't really vote on social issues, but there are some who are vocal about it as they take it as a sign Fitzpatrick is not one of them.  In reality it is a proxy for pure snobbery.  The tea party disdain for him actually helps him with these types.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Fitzpatrick as a RINO
Is funny because most people considered him much more Conservative than Greenwood in 2004, and he beat the more liberal Sen. Conti in the convention to get the nomination since Greenwood bailed after the primary.  

But I always have a much more narrow definition of RINO.  I only consider people like Chafee (when he said he wouldn't vote for W in 2004) as RINOs.  To me, having liberal positions doesn't make you a RINO;  not supporting Republicans make you a RINO.  Similiarly, DINO to me is Zell Miller.  As in, the only thing left that makes you a D or R is your party designation.

[ Parent ]
MN SD-20
As Always, Ritchie is all over this.
http://electionresults.sos.sta...

First results already in, and it is looking like a blowout in the making, with Koenen ahead 123-58

FWIW, Obama won this district with 51% of the vote in 08

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

For those interested in more detailed results
http://electionresults.sos.sta...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
PA-AG: Big Dog coming into town for Kane
http://www.phillyburbs.com/my_...

27, Republican, PA-6
NYT
released a very interesting map of the Republican Primary race:

http://www.nytimes.com/interac...

Looks like Romney's winning pretty thoroughly.

http://mypolitikal.com/

CA-38: CRC Forgot La Palma is OC
http://ocpolitical.com/2012/04...

Incompetency to a whole new level. At least it benefits Jorge Robles and the other Republicans.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

Veep Musings
Many have been saying Romney will go with Portman because he reinforces Romney's image of boring competence. However, I don't see it. Romney's image (or the image he wants to project) is a boring, competent, Washington outsider. Portman is an insiders insider. If Romney is really looking to reinforce the image of competent Washington outsider, he should be looking more to Pawlenty, Corbett, Branstad, and maaaybe Jindal.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
Ryan
Running as an outsider is fine, but you need people who know how to navigate washington.He's running on Ryan's budget. It makes sense to have the creator of this budget on his ticket. Ryan is the best advocate for conservative ideas.

I know before I said that Ryan was too controversial but after seeing the two together it makes sense.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Brainstorm thought: if you want an outsider for VP, how about a CEO?
Jack Welch comes to mind -- GE enjoyed golden years during his time, he's a solid R, and he's not "The Donald".

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
Carly Fiorina
I wouldn't be surprised if she is on the "list". She ran a competent campaign in what is becoming an extremely tough state for a Republican. They can run as outsiders who have a strong business background. Plus, it would help (albeit slightly) with his women problem, as she isn't as demonstrative as Palin, however, she doesn't Kelly Ayotte's temperment either.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Fiorina
Not sure she is best with Romney. Its easy to paint her as a greedy, profit obsessed CEO who doesn't give a damn about regular people. As for Welch, he's a little old. FedEx CEO Fred Smith, maybe. Plus he served in the military, always a plus.

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Success is a measure
and it's easy to suggest that Fiorina was not successful at HP. In contrast, Welch and Fred Smith are corporate legends. (didn't realize that Welch is older than McCain)

No idea how someone like Smith would do on the campaign trail, but CEOs have to know how to speak carefully, how to take coaching, how to manage expectations, in order to retain the confidence of the markets.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
That is nonsense
Most financial experts say that Fiorina's decision to acquired Compaq was a great move, which led to HP's rise (this was the main reason she was run out of HP). Only those within HP - or those with an interest in making Fiorina look bad - have come out to make her look like a bad CEO.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Fiorina
I'm a huge fan. I'd actually be very excited if she was Romney's running mate. However, the media will control the narrative and they will turn Fiorina's time at HP into a negative, not a positive.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
While I agree with you in terms of business results
in the "court" of public opinion, it was easy to present Fiorina as a failure at HP.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
If that narrative wins
Than Romney's a loser regardless of who is veep is. If Romney wants run this race as an outsider, a businessman, than he only weakens that narrative by placing someone who has mostly been in government (Rubio, Portman, etc...).

Sure, he could pluck a CEO like Welch or Smith, but the problem is that they are not vetted - whereas Fiorina had all of her skeletons out of the closet last cycle - and do not have experience campaigning. That last point is most important, since it isn't easy running for any campaign when it is your first time, let alone a national one with a limited amount of time, thus plenty of mistakes could be made.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I suggest that success as a CEO
especially someone who has to speak to different interest groups daily (shareholders, regulators, financiers, etc), is a different kind of vetting. Whether or not it's equivalent to the traditional forms is certainly an important question.

In addition, success as a CEO is based on trusting and following appropriate coaching, to get the words right to reassure the markets, to manage expectations to keep regulators calm, etc.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
CEO
A CEO isn't used to being #2 on a ticket. An outsider is one thing, but Romney has government experience. Someone with limited or no government experience conjures up Sarah Palin and Herman Cain, both of whom America didn't feel knew enough about government. I don't care if the CEO is brilliant, these guys don't know anything about foreign policy and probably haven't experienced grilling about abortion.

Barack Obama ran as an outsider and added someone who'd be in Washington 35 years. He was saying that he knew he needed someone who knew Washington. It actually made him appear to be more of an outsider.

If Romney wants to assure the conservative base that he's right there with him, picking a CEO isn't going to reassure people.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
CEOs do have to do foreign policy risk analyses
Multinational CEOs have to know more about foreign policy than I think you're suggesting.

However, you do point to a weakness -- social issues. A CEO would by definition ignore them, at least in business, as it is largely irrelevant to most businesses. In contrast, social issues can be important in election campaigns. Nevertheless, if one believes that "it's the economy stupid," and that social issue voters are motivated to vote for any R against President Obama, then social issues are secondary.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
CEOs Don't Ignore Them
Precisely because they consider them, and people who care about them for non-financial reasons(ie. relgion) irrational, they tend to overwhelming adopt socially liberal positions. After-all, if you are running a Hedge Fund, offering benefits to same-sex partners allows you to attract top talent, and the idea that you wouldn't do that or deny contraceptive/abortion coverage in the company healthcare plan for ideological reasons is absurd; it would cost you money.

One of the problems Romney has on social issues is that he is an example of what happens when someone who approaches social issues in that purely financial manner changes markets. In the business world he was Pro-Gay rights because it made sense. Now he is in a political marketplace where it would cost him political support to maintain those views, and what people are seeing as flip-flopping is actually him reacting to a change in his audience.

But this is precisely the problem any other CEO will face. Unless you go for an explicitly Evangelical Christian Business, almost any mainstream executive or CEO will have instituted socially liberal policies at their firm.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Point well taken
For a CEO, setting standards on social issues can hurt the bottom line.  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
Portman and Fiorina
Portman, I suspect, makes perfect sense if you believe Romney won't have trouble turning out "very conservative"s in the fall. He does reinforce that aura of inoffensive, boring, reliable competence and I rather doubt could be painted as an evil insider. If, however, you think Romney needs a veep who'll energize the base (if this is the case, he's probably the underdog vs. Obama), Portman makes scant sense.

In a way, I think Fiorina would work better had she not run for public office in 2010. Yes, she was vetted, but she also gave Democrats a similar line that's been used against Santorum - if you lost by double-digits then, why should you win now? Plus, her HP record brings back to the surface some of the "job-slashing" claims that dogged Romney, re: Bain. She neither energizes conservatives, nor exudes overwhelming competence, so I dunno why she'd make sense for him.

I would think, ultimately, Romney's top 10 are Ayotte, Christie, Jindal, McDonnell, Paul (Rand), Pawlenty, Portman, Ryan, Rubio and Santorum. In reality, Ayotte, Paul and Santorum won't be seriously considered. The top 3 are probably McDonnell, Portman and Ryan.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Why not Branstad?
He's got to beat out Santorum.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
VP- Haley drops even more
UT-04
Really interesting dynamic here. Josh Romney is campaigning and working hard for Mia Love, while the YAL PAC (the Paul student group) is lining up behind Carl Wimmer, who endorsed Paul after donating to Romney. Of course, the Hatch and FreedomWorks camps recruited delegates like crazy, so I guess the balance of power will be decided by the Senate race and who actually became delegates.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
I doubt either gets 60%
To avoid a primary. If one of them does, I imagine it could be Love, as her candidacy could lead to a greater, more positive image for the state - and some could consider that during voting. However, it will probably be a primary and at that point it is anyone's guess.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
I've really been looking for an additional reason
to back Love over Wimmer. Wimmer being a Paulite is basically gift-wrapping my justification for me.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Paul wins the St. Charles County Caucus Do-over
I'm assuming that Santorum's turnout fell dramatically because he has suspended his campaign.

http://www.deseretnews.com/art...

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative

yup
My contact sent me a message after I'd gone to bed stating he chose not to go for that exact reason.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Romney leading Obama in latest Virgina Poll
They were tied two months ago and now Romney leads 46%-40%.

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Ev...

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative

Seems a bit too optimistic for Romney
because, you know, VA is now a Solid D state in preidential years!!11! Seriously though, the lead seems a tad large.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
they asked tons of questions prior to head to heads


Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Yep, we discussed this on the morning roundup
Tons of religious questions, bordering on obsession with finding our exactly how Christian people were. I did love that the reader was given instructions on what to do if the respondent claimed to be "pagan" or "wiccan."
[ Parent ]
Evening Political Roundup for April 10, 2012 | 65 comments
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