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Morning Political Roundup for April 12, 2012

by: James_Nola

Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


President

Romney: On behalf of the Republican Party, I'd like to thank Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen for managing to unite the Republican Party behind Mitt Romney. If you haven't heard, Rosen decided to attack Ann Romney, saying "[she]never worked a day in her life", because, ya know, raising 5 boys with MS and breast cancer is easy. Conservatives have rushed to Romney's defense. And Hilary Rosen refuses to back down, continuing to attack Ann via Twitter and digging in in a HuffPo blog post. So how bout that Republican War on Women??

Romney Victory: The first event for Romney Victory will be a $50,000 per couple event in Palm Beach this Sunday. There will be another big dollar event in Naples this weekend.

Huntsman: The Huntsman campaign may soon face lawsuits for the more than $1.4 million it still owes its vendors. The campaign and Huntsman has gone silent on his plans to pay his debts.

Vice-President

Portman: NRO's Robert Costa has a long profile on the current VP FOTM, Rob Portman. It details Portman's working class roots and his extensive experience in Washington.

Rankings: Larry Sabato has his list of potential VP choices and their pro's and con's, separated by tier. His top tier is made up of Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, and Paul Ryan. Its definitely worth a look. There is also an interesting choice in his third tier: TN Sen. Bob Corker, along with Condi. JC Watts and Richard Burr even make the list. Talk about thorough.

Vetting: BuzzFeed reports that the Romney campaign will ask former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, who joined the campaign last week as an adviser, to lead the search for a VP. The vetting process will be more thorough and probing than ever before, in light of 2008 and the Palin experiment.

Senate

Wisconsin: Rep. Tammy Baldwin raised $2 million in the first quarter and has $2.7 million on hand.

Connecticut: Rep. Chris Murphy (D): $800k raised, $3 million CoH

Texas: Lt. Gov David Dewhurst (R): $1.66 million raised

Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D): $1.6 million raised, $9.5 million CoH

House

PA-18: The Club for Growth, which had been spending against Rep. Tim Murphy, says it will no longer engage in his primary race against Evan Feinberg.

NC-11: Investor Mark Meadows is up with his first ad buy, an introduction spot for $25k. The primary is May 8.

MI-07: Former Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz previously said he would announce whether he would run for his old seat as a Democrat last week. Still, we have no announcement. He now says he will let the DCCC know his decision within 48 hours.

AZ-01: Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick(D): $307k raised, $655k CoH

CA-39: Jay Chen (D): $305k raised, $247k CoH

CO-06: Joe Mikloski: $235k raised, $350k CoH

FL-22: Adam Hasner (R): $335k raised

NV-04: Danny Tarkanian (R): $344k raised, $290k CoH

OH-16: Rep. Betty Sutton (D): $455k raised, $750k on hand. Rep. Jim Renacci (R): $431k raised, $1.2 million cash on hand.

FL-06: Ron Desantis (R): $227k raised, $218k CoH, Richard Clark (R): $180k raised.

RI-01: Rep. David Cicilline (D), who raised $316k and has over $700k on hand, is apologizing for his management of Providence's finances when he served as Mayor.

Other

Wisconsin Gov: Looks like we are seeing an establishment vs. union battle shaping up in Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial primary. A day after the AFL-CIO endorsed Kathleen Falk, Sen. Herb Kohl endorsed Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Kohl joins former Rep. Dave Obey in endorsing Barrett.

New Jersey Gov: Chris Christie's approval ratings are hovering somewhere between God and Jesus, relative to New Jersey. According to Quinnipiac, his approval rating is 59-36. Even 30% of Democrats approve, while 64% of Independents approve.  

Most Popular Govs: The Fix ranks the nation's 10 most popular Governors. Not surprisingly, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo tops the list.

New Hampshire Redistricting, Congress: Who woulda thunk it would all come down to Kansas? New Hampshire passed its Congressional map yesterday, switching 6 towns between the two districts. The 2nd district, held by Rep. Charlie Bass (R), is made very slightly more Republican.  

James_Nola :: Morning Political Roundup for April 12, 2012
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House Thoughts
CA-39: I'm loving the futile money drain.

OH-16: I usually forget about this member v.s member contest. Is it wrong that I consider it Limely R?

FL-06: Desantis seems to have gotten himself a free seat. I didn't even know his name until yesterday, but he'll be a Congressman.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


I Consider OH-16 To Be...
..."Lean R". I expect Renacci to win it, but there's enough going on there to think it'll be relatively close, too close for a "Likely R" designation.  

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen: New Bob Kerrey ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Says he supports Democrats on the payroll taxcut and healthcare and Republicans on cutting regulation and simplifying the taxcode, then goes into the boilerplate "normally people in this state hate my party" monologue of how you have to work across the isle when the other part is right.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Romney's wife
Typical feminist BS that being a stay at home is somehow lower.  If I was Romney I would milk this in places like Pennsylvania with a higher than average number of stay at home moms until the cows come home.  Talk about insulting all the women who stay at home, including many middle class mothers like mine, you are also insulting those who wish they could stay home.  

Talk about waging a war on women.  Obama should fire this advisor and apologize because the left would demand the same out of a Romney advisor.

28, Republican, PA-6


Does Hilary Rosen work for Obama?
I don't think so.

[ Parent ]
I suspect that Ryan's approach would be an effective way
for Rs to take advantage of the gaffe (even though Rosen is employed by some private political firm).

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Her company website
Describes her as an advisor.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yep
Everyone is describing her as an advisor.  I would say Obama should seize the narative here and denounce her.  That might spark a wave a bra burning among his most militant supporters (no pun intended).

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Rosen has been to the White House 35 times
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

Gen. David Petraeus - 9
Energy Secretary Stephen/Steve Chu visited 16 times.
Secretary of Veterans Affairs Eric Shinseki has visited 19 times.
Former CIA Director and current Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, 12 times.
"Joseph R. Biden" appears... 6 times.

"Hillary Rosen? Never heard of her."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Pittsburgh
I remember reading that metro Pittsburgh has among the highest % of stay-at-home moms.. the highest was in Utah.
Can't find the article though.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Yep
The state as a whole has a fairly high percentage if I remember correctly.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Are we expecting the VP
to be announced earlier than Palin was last year? Or closer to the convention?  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

No earlier
Than August 12th, since that is when the Olympics end. I can't imagine Romney wanting his VP pick overshadowed by the Olympics.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Democrats war on women
..... its time to spread the word.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

According to radical feminists
My wife shouldn't raise my kids. She should rather work and let a babysitter raise them. Equality!!¡¡111!¡

26, Male, R, NY-10

That's antithesis to the very core of feminism.
All you're showing is that you don't understand what that word means.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Oh he is not far off
I have heard way too many so called feminists attack stay at home moms and stay at home moms openly despise feminists because of it.  I am not sure what left-wing theoretical utopia you live in, but here in the real world it seems to break pretty evenly along those lines.  Maybe Pennsylvania is not the real world as the state is admittedly very culturally conservative on such things.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
She should work . . .
even if there are no jobs in our 14.5% U6 unemployment Obama nation!!

[ Parent ]
That's right....
I mean just because you live in NYC and just because the City, State & Federal govt will take close to 50 cents of every dollar your wife makes in taxes and that she would most likely have to earn close to $60,000 just to cover the cost of the nanny, her transport to and from work and her tax bill doesnt mean she should work! Heck even if after taxes you are LOSING money by having her work send her off to the coal mines! (and yes this post is part sarcasm and part personal finacial despair)

[ Parent ]
Funally getting serious
A guy with the ties and profile of Lungren should be able to raise very big bucks.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
PA-17:
Cartwright goes negative on Holden, I listen to it right now but from the visuals it's pretty obvious:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

NWOTSOFB

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


NJ-Sen
Menendez by 9, 44-35.

Still a stretch, but not "Safe".

http://www.politickernj.com/56...


These are surprisingly good numbers
I expected Menendez to be flirting with 50. Kyrillos hasn't been doing what he needs to win though, he needs to be far more aggressive in getting his name out.

I'll keep my "Very Likely/Almost Safe D" rating but I'm moving this up on my big board to right behind AZ.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I agree with one of the commenters on the article
Kyrillos needs to get Christie numbers in Monmouth and Ocean, which is doable, and over-perform him in South Jersey, which could happen if he brands Menendez as a Hudson insider.  Then he can absorb what will almost assuredly be bigger deficits in the urban core.

[ Parent ]
Menendez looks anemic and unremarkable, but...
I just can't fathom many Obama-Kyrillos voters. I suspect Menendez basically matches the president's performance and since I see New Jersey as Likely D on that level...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
there are some
But it depends on how Kyrillos campaigns.  Franks overpreformed Bush by 12 in 2000.  No easy task, but it's been done.

[ Parent ]
Not only this Q


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
he announced Feb 1
Was he raising money before that?

[ Parent ]
You are right
This is the Christie money machine.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Sabato article
Hilarious. http://www.politico.com/news/s...

26, Male, R, NY-10

these are good
But '76 and '88 are a bit of a stretch.  Watergate had made any Dem viable to almost all pundits in 1976. And 1988, we were nearing an uncertain global power shift and the last thing people wanted was change.

[ Parent ]
Not really
If you told anyone in 1975 that Carter would be the next POTUS they would have laughed at you. To this day my father still doesnt believe that people actually voted for that fool.

[ Parent ]
Watergate
After Watergate there's no way Ford should've been that close. Any Democrats should've won by 10 points.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Pretty good.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Stay-at-home moms
They are far tougher for the Democrats to get than single or working moms. They are suspicious that the Democratic party looks down on them. Thank you, Democrats. You weren't happy with saying Republicans had a war on women. You had to declare war yourself.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Exactly
Well I don't think it was intentional, but part of the Weird strategy.  If you live outside the Northeast Corridor, a College Town, or the Left Coast, such things are not weird to you, but seeing the modern Democratic Party has boxed itself in, what is weird is relative.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I'm sure it's not intentional
They want stay-at-home moms. Yet you take a stay-at-home and maybe she's pro-choice, maybe anti-gun, maybe she feels Republicans don' t spend enough to help people. She's inclined to vote Democratic. Except she feels Democrats are feminists who don't think much of stay-at-home moms.

There are many religious Democrats who probably wish Atheists would sit down and shut up and stop turning religious people off to their party. I have a friend who is a devout Catholic. She used to vote Democratic, due to her liking big government programs. She switched to the GOP in 2008 because she was tired of having her beliefs denigrated. She felt they no longer cared how she felt.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
NJ-Pres: Obama up 9
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 49 - 40 percent in the New Jersey presidential race, a lead that shrinks to 49 - 42 percent if Gov. Christopher Christie runs as Romney's vice presidential pick, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Probably about right. We are doing a lot better with whites than we did in 2008, which is excellent.

27, R, PA-07.


I like Romney at 39-37 in bluish NJ
Perhaps we'll start to see a return to Kerry-like approvals over the next couple of months.  

[ Parent ]
MI-6 candidate
An ex-Marine and former organic farmer is the candidate Democrats in southwest Michigan are putting up in November's Congressional race.

Mike O'Brien is running for Congress on the Democratic ticket, said Mark Miller, the party's 6th District chair.

http://www.mlive.com/news/kala...


I thought MI Dems had learned
They're running another organic farmer after the Sharon Renier debacles?

[ Parent ]
Renier
I forgot about her.  She is the only major party congressional candidate I have interacted with I thought was not all there.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Most organic farmers arent nutjobs.


[ Parent ]
PA-4: Why I don't like Scott Perry
http://www.ydr.com/politics/ci...

Being someone who deals with DEP frequently enough, I can tell you his story is full of it.

28, Republican, PA-6


Yep.
This was an issue in the 06 race. Unfortunately, Perry had the York machine, and was able to steam-role divided opposition. I get the impression Reilly's going to be harder for him to beat, but would love to see some actual polling data.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
PA-18: Feinberg calls PA-18 a very conservative district
http://www.post-gazette.com/st...

Obviously this boy has spent too much time outside of the district.

28, Republican, PA-6


Walker releases two ads
Attacking Falk and Barrett. I really like the one they did for Barrett, clever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Walker/Martinez 2016


Walker must have a very solid ad person
These 2 ads are one of the best that I've seen.
Great production and real and good negative points, not the bs ones.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Excellent
These ads are among the best crafted in the past few years. Both Falk and Barrett have serious baggage.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
Jobless claims jumped this week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47027476

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

UT-Gov
The 6 candidates debated yesterday. http://www.deseretnews.com/art...

R - MD-7

I wish they had done a pseudo-poll here
Or whatever you call the research that showed Hatch in good position heading into the convention. I think Herbert is much more likely to go down than Hatch is at this point but I'm interested to see which of the alternatives has the most momentum.

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing either Philpot or Sumsion
I'll try and do some research on that. Are we going to do an endorsement here? I'd imagine there's at least one delegate that's stumbled on our site at some point.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Wilson outraised Heinrich in NM-SEN
760k-490k

26, Male, R, NY-10

It will be interesting to see
How much she can stockpile until the start of the general, and how much the Dems spend while pounding each other.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
NY-24 Buerkle
Green party candidate running. Good. http://mobile.syracuse.com/adv...

Hopefully, we'll reap the benefits of the 50,000 votes that they got in 2010 many times.  

26, Male, R, NY-10


PA-Legislative Maps
The new maps were preliminarily approved today.  I don't have time for a full write-up, but they appear to be a wash.  The maps would likely produce a 30-20 Senate give or take a seat either way.  On the House side, the numbers remain about the same give or take a seat or two.  

28, Republican, PA-6

A wash from the old maps
Or the first map?
What are the chances that Rs hold the legislature under the old maps in November?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
New maps
I hadn't heard. Who drew them? The court? The legislature? Will they use them this year or 2014?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
PA Maps
2014 by the sound of things.
Unless Ryan or someone else can file suit in the Eastern District of PA to somehow get the new maps to be used this cycle.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Nope
The 2001 maps will be used this cycle as the US District Court refused to get involved.

Really I don't think it matters which maps are used.  The fact the Democrats could only get a 2 seat majority under the 2001 map despite 2006 being the worst year for PA Republicans with a national implosion and corruption scandal.  The Democrats have some pretty weak SEPA candidates and are ceding conservaDem seats they held in 2006.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Good
If it was not for the 2005 pay raise scandal we would have never lost the House in 2006.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
do the new maps look like
they'll pass PA state constitutional muster?

Or have they split too many counties / towns again?

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
AK-AL: Whatdya know Democrats have an actual candidate
state Rep. Sharon Cissna. Of course, this will probably become competitive a bit before Obama wins Alabama and a while after hell freezes over, but still, it's always nice to have someone credible on the ballot.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Sorry, link:
http://community.adn.com/?q=ad...

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
NY-27
Establishment seems to be coalescing around Bellavia... http://www.buffalonews.com/edi...

R - MD-7

I'm worried the Erie County GOP sits this one out
If Bellavia gets nominated  

[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen: Flake raised $935K, has $3M COH.
That compares to $800K for Carmona, who has $1.1M COH.

Link

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Rosen hired for Wasserman-Schultz media consulting
http://campaign2012.washington...

Hillary Rosen was supposed to soften Debbie's style? Yeah, that's not working.

My favorite is the Democrats claiming that someone who made 35 visits to the White House and has been paid $120,000 has nothing to do with President Obama, the DNC, and campaign.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


DNC might know her
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

I guess we do have a contract with her firm, but that was all for Anita Dunn.

Right. And those 35 trips to the White House were to use the bathroom.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
35 Trips
This is the mindset with alot of those who work in the White House. She was being brutally honest until she was forced by her crowd to apologize. It's not exactly news.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Great investment
$120,000.00 to do this?  Thanks Obama and DNC for giving Romney a nice way to reverse the War on Women rhetoric.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
California News
http://blogs.pe.com/politics/2...

Aguilar posts $200,000 quarter. That's pretty good to say that he's legit and should win in June. It doesn't put him on par with Gary Miller, but he doesn't have to be.

http://castrovalley.patch.com/...

Swalwell going hard after Stark. I may be totally wrong but he has a shot with no Republican in the race. We'll see how it goes in June.

Rep. Devin Nunes raising funds to help Republicans nationwide

http://www.visaliatimesdelta.c...  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Scott Brown
It's not so much about the brilliant ad and strategy, it's the winning another day's media with wonderful coverage for him. I'm sure that it's part of his strategy. I'm just curious who's behind the whole campaign. As our MAers have said here, Brown shouldn't attack Warren at this stage, he should just continue puffing up his image among indies and soft Ds.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Meanwhile in San Diego
AMERICA'S FINEST CITY:

Mayoral poll headline "Fletcher doubles support"

Carl DeMaio: 28%
Nathan Fletcher: 26%
Bob Filner: 20%
Bonnie Dumanis: 13%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 10%

DeMaio is dreadful and idiotic, Filner is a union flunky. Hopefully Fletcher can continue his rise.

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


"DeMaio is dreadful and idiotic"
On what are you basing this little gem of insight, sport?

'Cos I'll take, DeMaio who's running a good campaign that's actually about something, over that craven careerist Nathan Fletcher any day.

(But it'd be ironic if Filner doesn't even make the runoff. Honestly, I can't imaging that happening...)  


[ Parent ]
Wholeheartedly Disagree
La Mirada is America's finest city.

I can understand why you support Fletcher as a "An anti-public union, market-loving moderate." Why do you say DeMaio is dreadful and idiotic? Are you a resident?

If Fletcher makes the runoff against DeMaio, I have to think Filner and Dumanis voters propel him to victory. IJB do you agree?

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, Maybe...
Dems might partially sit the race out without Filner; the rest would likely go to Fletcher. I expect Dumanis' supporters would split more evenly.

I'll still be shocked if it's not DeMaio vs. Filner in the end - Fletcher's current 'boomlet' is based solely on the increase in his name ID from advertising. Once DeMaio and Filner start pounding Fletcher, I'd expect his support to go back down.  


[ Parent ]
MT-SEN
Rehberg and Tester raised 1.2 million. That is a big improvement for Rehberg.

CfG has already spent 635k in IN. This is why Mourdock didn't need to raise money.  

26, Male, R, NY-10


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