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Morning Political Roundup for April 13, 2012

by: James_Nola

Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


President

Romney: Social conservatives are jumping on board with the Romney campaign. The pro-life Susan B. Anthony List endorsed him, and pledged to spend $10 million electing him and pro-life Senate candidate. The National Right to Life also endorsed him. This follows an endorsement by the National Organization for Marriage. I'd anticipate and NRA endorsement soon, also, as Romney is headlining the annual NRA convention today.

New Jersey: Quinnipiac has Obama leading Romney 49-40. If Romney selects Christie as his running mate, that lead shrinks to 49-42. Close enough to be a tempting money hole.

National: A Fox News poll, conducted Monday-Wednesday, shows Romney taking the lead over Obama nationally, 46-44. Romney leads among independents 43-37, with each candidate taking 85% of their party. The dates of the poll are important, because Santorum dropped out on Tuesday, in the middle of the poll, and the Democrats launched a war on moms Wednesday night.

Senate

Texas: Ted Cruz raised $1.3 million in Q1.

Arizona: Rep. Jeff Flake (R): $935k raised, $3 million CoH

Montana: Its a tie in The Treasure State, with Rep. Denny Rehberg and Sen. Jon Tester both raising $1.2 million. This is a big improvement for Rehberg over previous quarters. Tester is still winning the CoH race with $3.8 million to Rehberg's $2.7 million.

Indiana: Finally a strong quarter for Treasurer Richard Mourdock in his primary to Sen. Dick Lugar. He raised $875k last quarter. Lugar raised slightly less, with $817k.

More Indiana: The Club for Growth has already spent $635k against Lugar here.

Even more Indiana: Need more evidence this is the hottest Senate primary in the country right now? The American Action Network is up with a $600k ad buy against Mourdock.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey: $1.5 million raised, $5.2 million CoH

More Pennsylvania: This is the power of the state party endorsement: 33 members of the PA Legislature have endorsed Steve Welch.

Nebraska: AG Jon Bruning (R): $530k raised, $1.4 million CoH

House

PA-12: A huge get for Rep. Mark Critz in his primary against Rep. Jason Altmire: Bill Clinton. Clinton is still hugely popular among Democrats in SWPA and will also help Critz with his fundraising gap against Altmire. Crtiz is already taking advantage, with an ad showing him and Clinton together.

PA-17: Matt Cartwright's ads have always rubbed me the wrong way. But check out this one. Its just odd. And what's up with the tagline "Even though this guy looks like me, he will work for you."? I wish we had gotten someone better here, because I think we could beat Cartwright.

WA-??: Run Dennis, run!! Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, on a trip to Washington state (!) was asked by a reporter about running for Congress there. His response? "I'm looking at all my options." (!!) Options include a run in the open WA-01 or 06, or the new WA-10. We theoretically have a shot at all three. Where would we most like to see him run?

NY-24: It likely has little effect, but Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle needs all the help she can get. Ursula Rozum, a former Obama and Maffei volunteer, will run as a Green Party candidate.

AK-AL: Democratic State Rep. Sharon Cissna is running against Rep. Don Young. Cissna has little shot to win, but I'd still like to see Young retire and let someone a little less corrupt and younger take over.

James_Nola :: Morning Political Roundup for April 13, 2012
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Morning Political Roundup for April 13, 2012 | 94 comments
NRA viewed positive
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

Great news for freedom fighters!

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative

NY-24
Every little bit helps.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Fred Smith (Founder/CEO of FedEx) is speaking in Chapel today.
Does anyone have a political question that they'd like for me to ask him?

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
If Mitt were to offer him the opportunity to serve our country once again
as his Vice Presidential nominee ...

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
I can't picture him taking someone from the business world
I imagine he will want someone with either strong military, or Washington credentials. I just can't picture him actually running an outsider-outsider campaign.

When is the last time a presidential ticket had both people being Washington virgins? I just ran through every ticket in my year dating back to 56, and all of them had a Washington-type on the ticket, for both parties.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Smith fits the 'strong military' category.
He served two tours in Vietnam as a Marine, and received the Silver Star, the Bronze Star, and two Purple Hearts.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I meant brass
As much as I tend to side with soldiers instead of officers, the public seems to be more fond of "General Soandso" when it comes to military affairs

And look at what being a decorated Vietnam war veteran got Bob Kerrey this cycle, or McCain last cycle. Kerrey looks to be getting hammered and McCain faced a hard (although ultimately unsuccessful) primary challenge.

If War heroes/veterans were treated electorally superior, McCain would have beaten Obama, Kerry would have beaten Bush, etc, etc, etc.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Well, Smith was an officer.
He retired as a captain, but I understand that you meant a general. You have to understand, Smith is an alumnus of my high school, and even though there are other notable alumni, he casts by far the longest shadow.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Ah, that makes sense now
Yea, I know how famous alums are in high schools. Earl Bakken (an alum of my high school) founded MedTronic, and invented the pacemaker. He really was treated like royalty when he came around.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
The others you might know:
Pitt Hyde, founder of Autozone

David O. Sacks, producer of Thank You for Smoking, former COO of PayPal

Brian Kelsey, former Tennessee State Representative, current State Senator

I'm surprised that there aren't more politicians. Give us a few more years, since the school, though founded in 1893, had a hiatus between 1936 and 1955. We missed some big years for high school seniors who went on to be important.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Alumni
Rahm Emanuel apparently came to my school's now annual Hall of Fame induction and spoke upon being inducted. Rainn Wilson (Dwight Schrute) made it last year but Mark Kirk hasn't (nor have Biggert or Dold). WTF?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Dude, your high school is, literally, ten times the size of mine by population.
400 v.s. 4,000. We're not going to catch up. We might end up beating you in the political category, though that will be hard. MUS alumni tend to gravitate towards business, not politics (though in music, we did produce the lead singer of Big Star).

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Not a competition
We are 10x bigger. Not trying to one up you. Trying to say that it's ridiculous that Mark didn't make it when Rahm did and instead Rainn Wilson did. Don't get offended. . .

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
That is crazy.
I'm not offended. You've just brought it up a lot before, though I didn't know about the Hall of Fame. I thought that Rahm was actually from Chicago, not New Trier Township. Kirk needs to be next.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Rahmbo
Good lord, have I never told you that my dad grew up down the street from Rahmbo? Rahm was in my aunt's grade.

Let's just say that one of my dad's favorite childhood stories involves Rahm being the hyper-aggressive jerk that he has always been and Rahm never annoying him ever again after he annoyed my dad one too many times.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
You've told me the story.
I just didn't know that your dad grew up in New Trier as well. For all I knew, he grew up down the street from the Emanuels' house in North Chicago.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Hahah
1) North Chicago refers to the declining formerly industrial town in Lake County.
2) I've told you he grew up in Wilmette but whatever, not important. :p  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I meant the North Side.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
You could preface your question with something like
"I blog at a Republican political site known as RedRacingHorses, and many of us are interested in..." followed by your question.

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"
[ Parent ]
WA-10
Dennis should run here. All of the candidates are only somewhat known, which would give him a chance to make the top two, and in a general, Muri would have a much better chance against him.

In WA-6, we don't have a good candidate, while in WA-1, Koster will be essentially in a 50-50 race against any of the Democrats - and while against Kucinich it would be easier, he needs to prove that he can not only win this cycle (against weaker competition), but that he can hold thowns eat down by winning a tough race this year against those that are currently running. Otherwise if he cannot than we probably would be better off with trying to get someone like Sue Rahr next cycle.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

I think you have great points
Would give the GOP chances at a 6-4 delegation. But I don't see Dennis making it to the general election if he were to run in WA-10 (or WA-6 for that matter). As much as I have never understood WA Democrat leaders unconditional love for the bland and boring Denny Heck, with only 2 Dems running I would imagen Kuchinich would be the underdog. He would have the benefit of a pretty fractured field if he were to run in WA-1, and I think make the race go from a toss up to Lean R.  

25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).
[ Parent ]
Kucinich vs. Heck
I imagine the netroots will probably help Dennis out, which will allow him to have a money advantage against Heck. Plus, how much name ID does Heck have right now? I cannot imagine it is that high, whereas Kucinich's money advantage will give him some better hope. In WA-1, Kucinich will have a tough time in general elections every cycle, so I doubt he will take that route.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
MN State Senate
http://m.startribune.com/news/...

GOP senator Robling to retire. This is a pretty solidly GOP seat in the exurbs.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Pennsylvania State Legislature.

I tweeted about my PA Map using the hashtag about PA Redistricting yesterday afternoon. Well, over the past day, I noticed the PA State Senate look at my map and the PA House GOP Conference looking multiple times using our Sitemeter service. This is exciting, and juding by multiple views from the PA House, it means they're emailing it around or something like that. So, I'd like to welcome the PA House and Senate to email me at WFDeacons12@gmail.com if you have any questions on my map. Thanks.

 



From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Awsome
Congrats!

25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).
[ Parent ]
153-house or 203-house?

Given that the former is only a theoretical possibility for 2022, you might also point them to my diaries if they're looking for something a bit more immediately relevant.  

http://www.redracinghorses.com...

:)

[ Parent ]
153 Member House Map
It could give them ideas to mull over for 8 years, whereas they just passed their last ever 203 member House map. ;)  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
They passed a new one?
I know their old one was rejected by the courts, but missed where they came up with a new one.  
[ Parent ]
PA Leg maps
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

www.redistricting.state.pa.us/Maps/

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
I see

Thanks for the link.  They look cleaner than before, but still not technically in compliance with the letter of the law.  I wonder how the partisan balance changed...
[ Parent ]
RRH making it big
I've been fascinating by checking out our visitors' locations recently. Using RRH's SiteMeter service, I've noticed nearly daily hits from computers at SCOTUS, the US House, the US Senate, the DNC (after being directed here after looking up Elizabeth Emken fundraising), the State of New Jersey, and a few other interesting political groups. It looks like RRH is making it big. Oh, and we have a lurker from Northwestern University. If you're out there, I wouldn't mind having someone around here (I'm 10 minutes away) to talk horse race politics with! I've noticed a lot of hits from Vacaville, Kansas City, Maine, Idaho, and Gaithersburg, MD. Judging by how we have no frequent commentators who say they're from those places, it seems like we have some lurkers who may want to join but may not feel like we'd listen to them. I personally think a delurking thread may be fun, but that's up to you, mods. :)

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
The level Of discussion here
I have a couple of friends a a year younger than I who are also interested in politics, but when I tell them about RRH they throw up their hands and think it's waaaaay too intense for them, thy only follow general news stories and don't particularly care to know Martin Heinrich's fundraising numbers or what district Special K will run in in WA.

I think RRH has become an incubator for future leaders in the political world and has vastly increased The collective knowledge of all of it's users an even lurkers. Anyone I speak to IRL is amazed I, as a teen especially, know who the DE senators are (much less know DE is a state) and can quote the fundraising numbers for a MT Senate race. This knowledge is important, but equally important is the community it's created. I enjoy talking with my peers on skype and FB (shout out to SOTS, RRR, aggou, TexasR, jncca). Thank you for past and future memories!!

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

[ Parent ]
RRR, I say cut it out!
Am I the only one who thinks your ability to track us all down online is a bit creepy? Let's let people enjoy RRH in anonymity from the privacy of their own homes and places of business (where they probably wouldnt want it to be known that they were wasting time on political blogs anyways) without having to be worried about getting cyberstalked! I say you should probably should take a little break from the SiteMeter service before you scare everyone here away!!!! ;-)
[ Parent ]
Hahah yeah
I guess I got a little carried away with site meter when I wanted to see if my map would get looked at by anyone interesting (which was confirmed). :p

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Can I use that to look up old views on my diaries,
Or do I have to already have the service?

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
SiteMeter
Has to be within the last 100 visits.  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I'm Maine
Because of my employer's network.  But I agree with Izen.
[ Parent ]
Well, For Northwestern
Depending on whether or not they admit me, I might be attending there for the next few years.

Till then I'm stuck in California though.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Ryan_In_SEPA

Ryan, I've recently asked a few Pennsylvania questions of you on roundups that have gone unanswered (one went unanswered twice)... I'm sure you're a busy guy, but they don't seem like they'd have answers that would take more than a few moments to answer. I'd really appreciate you answering them. Thanks. :) 

Here they are.

 

  1. Why is the 202 Corridor in Chester Counry so heavily Democratic (other than AA majority Coatesville, which would be expected)? The towns along the corridor like Exton, Downington, Chesterbrook, Throndale, and Paoli are very white and seem to be at least middle class, so why are they more Democratic than other majority white towns in Chester County. Does it mean there are young professionals living there?
  2. Why is someone going after Dave Argall in a primary? He seems sufficiently conservative... is this a machine thing or some sort of old rivalry?

 



From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Clarification
I meant the 202 Corridor that extends from around Tredyffrin Township and then becomes the Exton Bypass (US-30), not the 202 that goes down to West Chester.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Why Argall is a target
Several reasons some conservatives are going after Argall:

1) He's an establishment guy & they don't like establishment guys in general

2) He voted for the 2005 pay raise & some people will never forget that (altho they will forget it if their favorite, Sam Rohrer, cast the same bad vote)

3) Schuylkill Co GOP politics is heavily factionalized, & the "out" faction, which is basically (but not always) more conservative often goes after the "in" faction, which is usually more moderate.

[ Parent ]
GreenDagon
Thanks for your answer. Do you know anything about my question about the US-30/202 corridor in Chester County?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Argall
I could not have put it better myself.  It is a county with so many Republicans that they just fight like there is nothing better to do.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Route 202
That's along the main line (railroad).  I never got out to Chester County much but my sense is that those are older towns with older housing stock, whereas the areas away from the main line are newer and more subdivision-y.  
[ Parent ]
amendment
I should say subdivision-y or just plain horse country-ish.  
[ Parent ]
DPMapper/ChesCo
That makes a lot of sense. I always figured Coatesville was the end of the main line or of a highway because it's common to have a large black population that's been in a town for a hundred years when it's at the end of the train line or highway. That's why North Chicago, Waukegan, and Zion historically had a huge black population (and North Chicago still does, although Zion and Waukegan are quickly Hispanifying).

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Route 202 is the Main Line?
The Main Line is not the R-5 and it pretty much runs between 320, Montgomery Avenue, and 30, Lancaster Avenue. Lancaster does eventually hit 202, but not until after Malvern, end of the line. It does hit the Norristown R-6 on the other end.

202 starts in Horse Country, which is now exurbs with very nice houses in sub-divisions. Since they are further from the city, they are less expensive. Most of these homes have been built in the last 20-25 years.

It runs down through Norristown, which has always been somewhat working class, which kind of puts it out of place for this part of Montgomery County.

You then run through King of Prussia. In the last 20-25 years it's become loaded with business parks, including whatever tech exists in Philly. King of Prussia is where the Turnpike meets the Schuykill meets 202. So it's perfectly located for business. King of Prussia is what happens when people are tired of dealing with all the issues and taxes in Philadelphia. Why are we driving into the city when we can put our business right here?

202 then goes into Chester County. I'm not aware of how that's changed or if it has.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Depends on how you define it

It's not "The Main Line" area, but it's still along the "main (rail) line" extending from the R-5 beyond along the Amtrak route to Harrisburg.  
[ Parent ]
The rail line name was applied to the region
So that's the way it should be defined. It used to be "Old Maids Never Wed And Have Babies." Overbrook, Merion, Narberth, Wynnewood, Ardmore, Haverford and Bryn Mawr. Rosemont, Villanova, Radnor, St. Davids, Wayne, Strafford, Devon, Berwyn, Daylesford, Paoli, and Malvern were added more recently and are debatable as Main Line.

The Main Line used to be synonymous with wealthy WASPs. Very old money dating back to the 1700s. It was made famous in The Philadelphia Story. Katharine Hepburn was a Main Line socialite. You didn't have the same WASP communities in places like Wayne, Berwyn, and Malvern. Certainly not along 202, as most of that was farmland/horse farms in 1940 when the film was made.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Maybe 20 years ago
You'd struggle to find anyone who would debate that Villanova or Radnor weren't on the main line these days...

Libertarian-R New MA-5. Christie-Martinez 2016.
[ Parent ]
Main Line
Yup, I'm very aware of the Main Line as a cultural phenomenon.  That's why I didn't capitalize "main line" in my original post.  :)  

Rosemont, Villanova, Radnor are definitely Main Line now.  Paoli and farther out I'd probably say less so.  

[ Parent ]
Literally
Literally they are all on the successor to the old Main Line. The Blue Route would cut it off now.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
StumbleUpon
So, someone apparently posted my CA Republican Gerrymander on StumbleUpon because we've been getting towns of hits from StumbleUpon on that diary in the past few days. So, welcome to RRH, StumbleUpon users.

Also, I think that it would be a good idea to post more diaries from RRH on StumbleUpon. How does that work? Does one have to be a long time user? I made an account but don't seem to be able to post links. If one of us is a long term user, they should post interesting RRH diaries on StumbleUpon.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

NY-Sen: Nicole Malliotakis endorses Long
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

She's considered a rising star (one of a scant few) within the New York GOP and I suspect this endorsement could create headaches for Turner, who absolutely needs to win big on Staten Island (and the other four boroughs) to garner the nomination. This "war on women" spat is probably helping Long a fair deal, too.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

I'm probably voting for Long
unless anything dramatic happens....

NY-3
[ Parent ]
I'm interested as to what you think
Long's future is because it's obviously not winning in 2012.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
She's K.T. McFarland 2.0
Conservative New York women from NY-14 who dive into long-shot efforts vs. popular Democratic incumbent senators, only to fall short in a contentious GOP primary. After 2006, McFarland turned to full-time FOX News commentary and has never looked back.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
so you think
that's what she is really after? I would agree except I think she has a good shot at making it past the primary.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
I think Long has the charisma for commentary
I can't say for sure that's what she's after, but, having interviewed her myself, she'll tell you without blinking that she's a serious underdog here (against Gillibrand, at least).

And as for her hopes in the primary, she's surely helped a decent deal by the Conservative support, but I'll be stunned if Giuliani, Pataki and most of the GOP establishment don't coalesce around Turner. What might hurt Turner, however, is Maragos' strength on Long Island - the former needs to run up a chunky margin downstate, I suspect. And Long should play well upstate, but without the Paladino forces engaged, turnout should be pretty low.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Hmm
The primary looks set up to be a true free for all. I agree that none of them have any shot against Gillibrand barring a DGLB scenario. It seems though that she would be a great candidate against just about anyone else, anywhere else.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
NY voters are so clueless
the last poll of the race has it 17-10-7 with 60% undecided or in this case don't care and probably aren't going to vote.

NY-3
[ Parent ]
Rush having a radiothon
He's going after Leukemia. Great. Now Democrats will accuse us of a war on cancer.

https://rush.radiothon.org/rad...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Done it already
they already went after the Kochs for funding cancer research.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
That's nefarious
Were they afraid that the Kochs would be successful and that they'd have to boycott treatment?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
And Brown as well
Scott Brown showed up at the opening of the David Koch Cancer Institute at MIT last year and was bashed by Democrats for spending time in the presence of Koch.
[ Parent ]
conversation
Democrat: "Doc, is there anything you can do?"
Doctor: "Well, you are facing death, unless you'd like to be treated with innovation from the research at the Koch Cancer Center..."
Democrat: "Tell me more about this 'death'..."

[ Parent ]
Funny Funny
I almost believe that could happen.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Cory Booker
I am enjoying the #corybookerstories on Twitter.

27, Republican, PA-6
not a moment too soon
The Mayor was losing the battle with the Devils very badly, and the press was starting to point that out.  

Also NJ news, Moshe is vindicated as politickernj suggests that Kyrillos's haul might have been coming in since farther back than January...

http://www.politickernj.com/56...

[ Parent ]
Cory Booker is Mensch!
Booker is one of the few people who not only lives up to their hype but actually surpasses it. He's been an amazing Mayor and his leadership has pretty much singlehandedly turned Newark in the right direction. He's really a guy we should all be rooting for.
[ Parent ]
I think it's gonna be Booker vs Sweeney
in the Dem primary for Lautenberg's seat in 2014. Maybe Lance could run for the GOP?  
[ Parent ]
Both
Booker and Sweeney are close to Norcross.  I don't see them challenging each other.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY
[ Parent ]
Having Cory Booker a only 1 of 100 Senators is such a waste of his talents
Booker is a natural leader and a great chief executive. All of his energy and abilities will go to waste in the US Senate. He's doing such good work in Newark its almost a shame for him to give that up to just be another Senator. I mean you dont get oportunities to pull women out of buring buildings when you are a US Senator! Newark really needs Booker and the work he's doing. He loves being Mayor. Booker loves getting his hands dirty and helping the people 1st hand. No way he can ever do that kind of work sitting in Washington voting on bills. Maybe I could see him wanting to run for Governor after Christie is gone. But I cant see him leaving Newark to sit in the US Senate.
[ Parent ]
PPP now has
R's in the NC legislature leading by 1 point in who voters would choose.

44 for the R candidate, and 43% for the D.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Perhaps there is hope for the legislature after all. We might not lose half the seats I thought we could potentially lose.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

Let's Hope...
...the leg. approval numbers similarly rebound in places like MN, WI and ME.  
[ Parent ]
I have hope for the GOP in WI
but not in MN and ME.  
[ Parent ]
The NC legislature was pretty much gerrymandered
And many veteran Dems have already announced their retirements. I'm a little confident that the GOP will maintain the majority in NC legislature this November.  
[ Parent ]
Oh I'm 100% sure the GOP
Will hold the majority, but the actual number of seats I wasn't sure about.

This makes me more hopeful we'll only lose a handful instead of like 8  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

[ Parent ]
John Campbell endorses Emken
http://www.emken2012.com/2012/...

Establishment clearly lining up behind her. Though Dan Hughes raised a lot more money (100k) to Emken (30k) I have  a strong feeling shell win..I just hope it doesn't turn into a C-List 2010 primary with Hughes as Devore and Emken playing Fiorina (with the role of Tom Campbell played by no one)

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

Does it really matter?
All three will be underfunded and this seat won't even get a first look from anyone credible (i.e. media, nrsc, ca gop, etc...). I imagine that whoever the nominee is will receive anywhere between 34% to 43% depending on what happens at the top of the ticket.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Well
there would probably be a decent amount of negative press for the GOP is Emken's main opponent, Birther Queen Orly Taitz, won the nomination. That alone is probably a decent motivator.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Sure, but how much name ID does Orly have?
I doubt it is much. Only those that are really engaged know who she is, which sadly isn't much.

The fact that Emken is getting all of the establishment behind her will likely get her the nomination. However, if Hughes spends his own money (I'm not even sure he has deep pockets), it might get him the nod.

I am sure that both will get double digits, whereas Tatiz is stuck to about 5%. Remember her race last cycle against Damon Dunn? Dunn didn't even have that much money to spend during the primary, yet he dominated her even as she was getting some publicity over her lawsuit.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Sure, probably.
I'm just saying that their thinking is probably that an ounce of precaution is worth a pound of cure in these situations.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Never underestimate the power of a mailer
I didn't use to pay attention to down ballot races and usually would vote for whoever the party endorsed.

You can't advertise in California with less than $20 million. So only the gubernatorial and senate races get advertising. The senate doesn't if it's a race like this.

Dunn had no name ID. Tatiz has some, I'm sure, but it cut both ways. Some support her and many more want to make sure she doesn't get a nomination. Add to that Dunn is endorsed on a mailer in every Republican home in the state and you have a Dunn landslide.

This race is different. There are 387 candidates, all with virtually no name ID. Once Emken's name appears in every Republican mailbox in the state, she should get at least 15% of the overall vote to put her in 2nd.

It's conceivable people won't know who they're voting for until they pull out the card in the booth and punch the names they see there.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
That was mostly my point
That Emken is probably going to win the nomination and that Taitz has very little hope.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Shamlet
Here's an answer to a question you asked yesterday; It's extremely abnormal to fire your basically whole staff... RoJo is not used to serving in political office and always seemed like the kind of guy who likes to do stuff on his own without interference from others. That's not the greatest asset to have in a body of 100, but he's a very bright and capable Senator.  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
WI-Gov, WI-LG, WI-St. Sen:
DKE is having PPP poll the WI Gov, WI LG, and four WI St. Sen races this weekend. Results early next week.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
Variance
Cant imagine there's much variance between the iv an lg numbers. Any reason hy a voter would want to recall one and not the other? Besides what has kleefisch done that's so terrible?

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
Mitchell.
I expect Walker will be narrowly winning the Gov race and Mitchell will be up a big margin in the LG race, just in terms of candidate quality there's no comparison.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
MA-04: JK3 raised $1.3M in the 1Q
Link

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
NC Dem official sexually harrassed staffer; Party fears credibility 'doomed'
NC Dems: Hahahaha
So much for Dems being an "amazing party for women(!1!1!1!!)" or whatever they're saying. Watch them blame NC Republicans for this.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Sigh, now the tea party says Ellmers is a member of the
Washington establishment....

http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=2854

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

NC-7
Surprisingly, Ilario Pantano raised more than David Rouzer in the first quarter. He bested him by roughly 50K. However, Rouzer had 100K more on hand than Pantano. I still think the primary will be won by Rouzer because of his cash advantage. Finding out how Pantano outraised Rouzer would be interesting. I know he was endorsed by former Congressman Duncan Hunter a few months ago.
Morning Political Roundup for April 13, 2012 | 94 comments
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