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Weekend Questions and Open Thread

by: James_Nola

Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 23:48:07 PM EDT


1) With Santorum gone and Romney all but officially the Republican nominee, but Gingrich staying in, does Romney win every remaining contest, or may Gingrich beat him in some southern contests? If so, where?

2) There is no argument that Rick Santorum has significantly improved his image during this campaign. What is his future in the party?  

James_Nola :: Weekend Questions and Open Thread
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Son_of_the_South's Answers
1. I doubt it. He might, and I mean might, win Texas.

2. He should go to a think tank.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


CoD's Answers
1) The voters of the remaining states will want to unite the party and are tired of the campaign season. There will be anti-romney voters but I imagine Romney has flipped 40%-50% of them to his side even if they don't like him. Thus Romney shall win all remaining states (yes even DE Newt.)

2)Justice Santorum or Romney cabinet somewhere not too significant.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


Santorum for HHS!
I find that proposal too funny and richly ironic.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

[ Parent ]
Big government
What always gets me when Democrats want government to do more is that they have to know that at some point Republicans are going to be in charge. Then they've given all this power for people to do policies they hate.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
heh
But I bet Santorum would remove that HHS mandate on contraceptive.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

[ Parent ]
<i>Justice</i> Santorum?
Justice Santorum? Good lord, that frightens me. I don't think he's all that smart. Nor did anyone in DC in his time in the Senate, as he apparently was rated as a huge show horse (or something like that) when he was a Senator.

[ Parent ]
Book Recommendations?
I have to choose a book NOT about the U.S. so I thought I could do it on another countries electoral/political history. Thoughts? Recs?  

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


Read about the Boxer Rebellion
It's a very interesting case of a central government that grew weak, and the citizenry revolted, and then the whole thing just blew up, then fizzled and died a few years later. It's fascinating.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
One of my great grand-fathers served in putting down the Boxer
rebellion.

[ Parent ]
Was he a defender of the Legations,
or was he brought in later?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Part of the international corps that was brought in later.


[ Parent ]
There is no Alternative: Why Margaret Thatcher Matters
Excellent Book I just finished reading. The story of how one woman turned Britain from a depressed left wing, 3 day working week, high inflation back water to the strongest and richest nation in europe.  

"Economics are the method, the object is to change the soul."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

21, Thatcherite,


[ Parent ]
I'll give a good sci-fi recommendations by Philip K Dick
Read "The Crack in Space" which takes place in 2080 and follows the presidential campaign of Jim Briskin who is campaigning to be the 1st black President of the United States. Mr. Briskin exploits the discovery of an interdenominational portal to a parallel Earth as a solution to the world's over population problem as his main campaign platform. It's a really fun book & worth the read.  

[ Parent ]
LOL at autocorrect
should read interdimensional portal!

[ Parent ]
Book Recommendation
It's about the US but when you have to time to read a book for leisure, read "How the States Got Their Shapes" by Mark Stein. It's fascinating to learn how and why our state and national boundaries were set and moved over the years.

[ Parent ]
Anonymous Donor Gives $10 million to Crossroads
All hail Karl!
My AP Gov teacher from last semester is reading Courage and Consequence, and he loves it. That should give you a good idea of how conservative some MUS faculty members are.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I prefer
That my name not be attached to these sorts of things.

[ Parent ]
Lol BP
We know where you go to school. Be careful, someone might just believe you.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
answers
#1A:

Gingrich: Nope, he doesn't win any more states. In fact I'm thinking he won't get the 2 delegates he was projected to get from Iowa.
He might get a few stray delegates from Southern states, but that's it.

#1B:

How are you dating the contests in caucus states?
A bunch of the early ones were non binding entry polls, with later ones to follow. (Missouri didn't even have entry polls at all sites unless you count the previous months non binding primary which has no relation to the caucus votes)
Some of these reach conventions that they choose delegates today; others next Saturday; and others further in the future.

If you date these when delegates selected, there's a few losses for Romney; but all in places he lost the entry round.

#1C:
Ron Paul: He'll continue to pick up stray votes in caucuses, but I don't see him carrying any states.

#2: Santorum is young enough to run for president again for either 2016 or 2020. But whoever Romney selects as his VP running mate is also likely to do so. And I think Jeb Bush might want to do so by 2020 if not earlier in 2016 as well.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


The fastest growing religion in the country
is "None".

http://news.yahoo.com/rise-ath...

This also happens to be the second most likely religion to be loyal to the Democratic party, slightly trailing the Jewish vote. Obama won the irreligious by 53% (75-23). Per the CNN polls, this made up approximately 12% of the electorate.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

The number referenced in the first story states that the "Nones" are now 19% of the population (although it is not clear if this includes the 4% "Hard Atheist" or not.

On a personal note, the "closeted atheists" the article mentions are quite real. I have a number of personal friends that feign piety for the sake of their family, school, etc. But when having a conversation about it among friends, their lack of belief is made clear.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


The Dems Can't Hold Those Numbers Up With the Areligious
I'm areligious myself, but the self-satified (and basically anti-religious) tone of the Democrat party is one their major turnoffs. Basically, it's a cultural thing that gives secularism a bad name.

At some point there's going to become a critical mass of areligious who are going to start asking themselves why the Dems are going after religion all the time when they're not a serious threat to anyone. When that happens, the areligious are going to start trending Republican...


[ Parent ]
I don't see religion as a threat
But if it does come to a point where the religious are no longer a "threat" (I don't like that term) to the secular, then yes, Republicans would likely make inroads in them. But I think you and I are on wildly different pages when it comes to this point. The secular are not reaching a point where people like Santorum or Palin look more appealing that people that don't wear their religion on their sleeves. And I don't see that happening for YEARS to come.

I think the article articulated it well where the religious populations are becoming MORE religious as only the conservative fundamentalists remain as the more secular members leave the church/synagogue/mosque/temple. The higher concentration  of fundamentalists driving the narrative within the congregations becomes more and more associated with the Republican Party, as it tends to be more conservative. So we are not going to be entering a cycle where the secular leave the conservative church, but then start voting for the conservatives because they are no longer part of the church. That argument doesn't hold water.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Clearly You Do
You say you aren't threatened by religion, and then spend the remaining 2/3 of the post running down the nasty, scary fundamentalists and all the mischief they are plotting to do!1! (Hyperbole, maybe - but it's the mindset I come across nearly all the time among the secular Left.)

If seculars are voting against people like Santorum and Palin who "wear their religion on their sleeves", then clearly the seculars are still threatened by them.

My point is this kind of irrational fear is going to be less and less sustainable the more areligious there are. At some point, increasing numbers of them are going to realize that there's nothing "scary" about people like Palin at all.  


[ Parent ]
Well, most of the secular conservatives/libertarians I know that are my age
are either Ron Paul fans or were not fans of any major Republican candidate that was vying for the nomination (except one Huntsman guy, and I think one Romney guy). They either dislike Santorum or don't care.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Yes
I am personally agnostic (actually, I practice my own religious agnosticism that I call 'Calvinist Deism,' but let's not go into that). I also have many friends in high school who are irreligious and either conservative or libertarian. Dems will keep an advantage, but the percentage will definitely drop over the next decade, at least in terms of PVI.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Gingrich is gone....
He may assume the role as the last 'conservative standing,' but his actions do not fill the role well.  News seeping out as to some of the silly/wasteful expenditures made by Newt and Callista are further degrading his image, certainly as a 'fiscal' conservative.  Selling his donor list is another fiasco, as well as having his foundation go into bankruptcy.  However, it's his continuing pettiness, petulance and arrogance that is really doing him in with more and more of the people who supported him.  What's happening to him now, has more to do with discrediting himself for any future in politics, let alone having anything more to do with the 2012 election cycle.  

My take
1. Romney wins them all.

2. Honestly, Rick Santorum's best chance to get back into politics is probably another crack at the senate in 2016. It's what he should have done this year.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



Against Toomey?
That seems unlikely. He may have a better shot at governor in 2018, which will either be an open seat, or have a Democratic governor.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
That's what i meant.
Sorry.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Not a surprise that the
top three choices in AZ2 all have a military background.  Its not just the district which has a military base, tons of military retirees plus defense contractors in the area but its a great way to connect with GOP voters.

Yet I suspect McSally and Kelly splits the R/teaparty/very conservative vote and lets Frank A. win the GOP primary.  I see him as the top candidate to take on Barber so best wishes to him.  


[ Parent ]
Anetori
Has had terrible fundraising. I can't see him winning the primary or being competitive with Barber. Kelly is tainted. McSally has a great profile and could raise big bucks in the general, as national conservatives will love her. Sitton has the state establishment behind him, and leads in fundraising. If we want to win, its Sitton or McSally.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I am from Missouri
so you have to show me about Frank A.  Okayed I checked it out and he has only raised a very uninspiring 60K through 03-28-2012. Wow that goes against what was my thinking was.  I would have thought he had got a ton of money.

Okay I am in the McSallie camp.

I do note that whoever is the GOP nominee will be well funded.  National PAC's and local money will flow to whoever it is.  

Still raising money is one way you show you are a serious candidate and Anetori gets a "C" for his 1st qtr fundraising.  Just barely a passing grade.


[ Parent ]
I was
Originally in his camp too, but then I was impressed by McSally, and Anetori's fundraising and campaign have really pushed me that way. I hope McSally wins, but I will be happy as long as it isn't Kelly. I'd take Anetori over Kelly.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Minnesota Convention Fun
Last night there was a bit of an internal war at the CD-6 convention when David Fitzsimmons put in a rule to vote on natl delegates and alternates separately, a rule the Paul camp did not want but initially supported b/c Fitz is an off and on supporter. Looks like they changed it on the floor earlier because Paulites have almost a 2/3 majority here. Should be looking at a Paul sweep. CD4 on the 21st will be a Paul sweep. Haven't heard details on CD5 today, but I am pretty sure it will be a Paul sweep. CD 3 will be a battleground. CD 1 on the 21st will be tough for Paul.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

how does this compare to the initial entry polls?
I'm curious which candidates perform better than expected and which worse than expected in comparison to those.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Confirmation in MN-6
Paul swept the national and alternate delegates (one of my friends is an alternate here). In MN-05 Chris Fields swept aside insane Lynne Torgerson, who ran as an independent in 2010. CD-3 is nominating now.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
MN-05 too
All delegates confirmed for Paul.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Torgerson
Ya know, I never really mind the people that run in the 5th against Ellison. Hell, i wish he would lose a primary. But Torgerson ran a despicable race in 2010. She based her entire campaign on Ellison's religion. Truly sickening some of the things she said. I am glad she didn't get the delegate slot.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Oh sorry
I meant she didn't get the congressional endorsement to run against Fields in the 5th. She got 10 votes I think?

Also, Paul took all 3 delegates in CD3. Waiting for alternates.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


[ Parent ]
And all 3 alts in CD-3
Paul swept all three CD conventions today.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Paul sweep
Per Josh Putnam
MT @patandersonmn: Looks like 18 for 18 (9dels/9alts) in MN for Paul. @DanielSurman Paul dels sweep #cd3 // & #cd5 #cd6 via @FHQ commenter

RT @APkristenwyatt: 12 statewide #cogop RNC delegates: 8 for Romney, 4 unpledged #copolitics

http://www.chieftain.com/news/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Who is this Daniel Surman?
Bet he is an intelligent, good-looking fellow.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
For sure...


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
hehehehe


19, Dem, IL 7, MN 4 (College)

[ Parent ]
On the DFL side
http://www.startribune.com/pol...

Graves has the ability to self-fund this race. Not that it really matters. Bachmann will grotesquely under-perform Generic R, but still win 49-46 because of how blood red the district is.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Joe Schwarz still thinking
He's blown through what, two self-imposed deadlines?  It would be funny if he just keeps stringing the democrats along until the filing deadline.

http://wtvbam.com/news/article...

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton


I doubt he runs
This is the same thing that went on with his potential run for governor in 2010.  He'll enjoy the media speculation for a while and then announce he's not running.  If he was going to run, I think he would've already said so.    

[ Parent ]
Look at me! Look at me! I'm important
Typical Schwarz. As I said before. One of the two or three most arrogant pols I've ever come across in either party.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Gingrich is caput, plain and simple
I won't waste another breath on him.

As for Santorum, I don't see any future for him in Pennsylvania politics. If he works his heart out for Romney, I suppose there's a mild chance he lands a cabinet post, but likelier, I would think, is him running again in 2016 (if Romney loses, of course). He'll fare far worse than this time around, but it can't hurt his stature as a top force/kingmaker among social conservatives. And, in the mean time, maybe FOX takes him back.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Alberto Gonzales to Romney: Don't pick Rubio for veep
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

WY-Sen 2014
According to my twitter feed, Liz Cheney is moving from VA to WY and is looking to run for something in 2014, with speculation that she wants to replace Enzi.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Or she wants to
be in a different state then McDonnell in 2016. That way she can be his VP. That's a reference to how Dick C moved his voter registration to Wyoming in 2000 to avoid being a Texan like W.

She would be an interesting senator from Wyoming but I also like the female congresswoman from W.  


[ Parent ]
Lummis probably won't risk her seat
If Cheney got in. But, I imagine Rita Meyer would give it a try. Perhaps Mead could too, but the Cheney name is likely to have a significant amount pull.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Cheney
I'd rather see her run for something in VA, but I wonder if her name would hurt her there? I'm personally a huge fan of hers, and think VA would be a better place to launch a potential national bid from than WY.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Are you kidding?
Her name is a huge drag with people who don't know about her specifically. Her running statewide in VA would be risking a blowout loss.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Once they got to know her though
She would be able to differentiate herself from her dad and create her own image.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I think her running
for VP or anything in VA is just about equally unlikely.  I like Liz Cheney but honestly I think Wyoming is full of competent conservatives who are home grown.  Liz has spent much of the last several decades outside of Wyoming.  

[ Parent ]
Why?
In WY she would probably be a senator for as long as she wants, whereas in VA, she would have a tough time against Warner. In fact, that is probably why she is moving, since she realizes it would be too tough. Only McDonnell could make a race against Warner a tossup, which is why I am hoping he is not on the ticket this year.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
New PA State Legislative Maps
State House is a compromise map

State Senate is the Democratic map

DKE editors think the Erie County Senate seat got a notch more Democratic and they didn't ax the Democratic seat in the Pittsburgh area.  


PA State Senate
While I don't think we'd lose the chamber even under this map, I just don't understand why this was picked.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
looks like
subject to a similar lawsuit as the previous one; over the Pittsburg area.
I'm seeing a double cross there; which automatically means there's at least one extra split than there has to be while staying at whichever deviation standard was used.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Lawsuit
If that's the case, then perhaps a certain attorney in SEPA should point that out in the public comment period.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Per okiedem at DKE:
I've drawn most of SEPA and all but one or two of the seats (the 24th and maybe the 44th) are >56% Obama. Just eye-balling it the rest of the state looks very very strong as well. This is basically  the most Democratic friendly map possible that doesn't do anything too obvious like bacon-mander Philly or create a Harrisburg, York (city), Lancaster (city) district.


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I am not sure
where OkieDem is coming from on his analysis of the map.  The GOP loses a seat in Pittsburg area but is likely to gain the Monroe county seat.  The Erie county seat is vacant is likely to be a GOP loss unless Tom Ridge runs for it and that is very very unlikely. That is seat is offset by a likely GOP pickup in the Centre County(?) based seat. The rest of the map looks very status quo like and the D senate leader voted against it.  

The house map looks very status quo except the D areas are a bit thinner in seat numbers as that area declined in population.  As before there is an outside chance the D's could take this body over but the lines seem to favor the GOP. Yes there are a ton of Obama seats in SEPA similar to 6th, 7th and 8th Congressional districts where the GOP swept legislative and congressional races in 2010. The D's avoid a painful gerrymander in the state senate but now only face a really really tough battle to get to 22 seats there.  


[ Parent ]
Centre County

District 35 is still D-leaning; drops out of Centre and is now Cambria/Bedford/Clearfield.  

There is a double-crossing of MontCo-Bucks it seems, and a few other places where county splits are not minimal.  

I'd have to draw the lines in DRA to see what's going on in SEPA.  


[ Parent ]
Monroe County
Be careful on that one. Monroe County is quickly becoming stuffed with liberal former New Yorkers. I see it as liable to trend left hard.

[ Parent ]
Really?
When was the last time the Democrats took a 56% Obama Senate seat in a general election in SEPA?  I can only think of one and that seat has a conservaDem who many progressives in Pennsylvania hate as he is a complete political whore to big business.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Nope
Actually the Senate map is a wash as Costa, the Senate Democratic Leader voted against it.  That tells you all you need to know.  I know the DKE progressive types really don't have a clue about Pennsylvania Democrats, but they should be able to read that one.

The Erie County seat got slightly more Democratic, but the 35th probably became too Republican for even its current conservaDem as Bedford is so heavily Republican.

The 45th District will probably fall as well.  They essentially drew the worst nightmare seat for the Democrats.  It contains a bunch of conservaDems matched with a fairly liberal primary electorate.  Brewster will lose the first primary he faces in that seat to a real liberal while the Republicans will nominate a Tim Murphy clown and the seat falls to the GOP.

Nothing really changed in SEPA from the current map, the struck down map or this map.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
We had the trifecta in PA
And we don't have the leg as gerrymandered as NC , MI or FL even with FDF?  
Incompetence!

[ Parent ]
As I recall
having the trifecta doesn't help drawing legislative seats in PA as the legislature itself has no control of that.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
PA legislative redistricting
Redistricting is by a commission--1 of each party from each house, plus a 5th chosen by those 4.  We got the 5th this year.  BUT, the PA constitution has a very strong prohibition against splitting counties or municipalities except where unavoidable.

Until this year, the Supreme Court ignored that prohibition, but this time a 4-judge majority decided actually to enforce it.  That's what got the earlier maps thrown out.

The new map is not quite as good as the rejected one, but it shores up some shaky GOP districts & we will pick up a few in the House from population shifts.

The Senate is locked in at the current 30-20, or possibly 1 less since we were lucky to win the Erie seat before.  The House is always shaky because there are so many tough suburban Philly districts, but we've created a vote sink or two that will help improve some of the close ones.

Not a rabid gerrymander, but one is rarely possible because of the commission system.


[ Parent ]
Agree
Basically this map protects the status quo.  The real story here is how the House Democrats basically threw the progressive types under the bus by vote sinking them in SEPA.  Basically the existing Democratic leadership rather remain the Democratic leadership even if its in the minority.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Random thought
Dominic Pileggi should just change his last name to PA-LEG-gi. :p

[ Parent ]
Colorado district conventions
While looking for statewide convention results for Colorado that was today (and not finding them), I ran across the results of a summary of their district conventions which were Thursday & Friday

Big winner was "Unpledged" with 10 delegates
Santorum was second with 6 (dispite the drop out a few days earlier)
Romney 3rd at 5 delegates.
And Ron Paul was shut out. (So was Gingrich, but the later was expected)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


'Unpledged' really a coalition
Paul and Santorum supporters teamed up for this. I don't know how many on the slate are Paul folks  and how many are Santorum though. http://www.denverpost.com/brea...

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Wow; that was odd
I would assume that in the districts that elected 2 "unpledged" as an even split between Paul & Santorum.

But several districts had 1 unpledged.

(Every single district split their vote)



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
hum, that article also mentions the state convention
Romney turned things around there, getting 8 there to that coalition's 6.

KS Kid has the combined total below.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
RealClearP. Final CO, WY delegates
CO http://www.realclearpolitics.c...  
Romney: 13
Santorum: 6
UnPledged: 17

WY
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
Romney: 23
Santorum: 2
Paul: 1
Unpledged: 3

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
Seriously
Nobody posted that the GOP won the first round of litigation over the state senate map. As I expected, it's constitutional to add seats. http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Good to hear
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Well, it shouldn't be that surprising . . .
Its been done before -- like ten years ago.  

[ Parent ]
Thoughts On Lugar
I was thinking he would pull it out, but now not sure. This from the Hotline "The consensus around Sen. Richard Lugar's re-election bid has changed markedly, from all-out optimism that he would easily dispatch challenger Richard Mourdock to downright pessimism, bordering on resignation. Lugar would be the Tea Party's most prominent trophy, and they appear to be on the verge of scoring the upset in a few weeks." Lugar appears to be the only Republican Senator with an F rating from the NRA, and they are spending heavily against him. This is perhaps the most odd aspect of his voting record to me.

SC1-Charleston

Judges hurt his score
Especially Sotomayor and Kagan

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
There's truly been a momentum shift
in the last week or so. The residency spat softened him up but the NRA and CfG ads are what's really making the kill.

Sometime in the not-too-distant future pols will look on Lugar and Hatch as a very good contrasting case study of how longtime incumbents should deal with primary challenges. Resting on your laurels and trying to discredit your opponent simply isn't good enough; you really need to know your electorate and calibrate your message and organization to them.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
All I have to say . . .
is that Mourdock better be able to defeat Donnelly.  Otherwise this we be another epic Angle/O'Donnell/Buck/Brady screw-up for GOP.  

[ Parent ]
is he ABLE to? Yes
Absolutely he is able to. Is he a shoo-in like Lugar? Absolutely not. Polling has the race tied with Murdock v. Donnelly, whereas Lugar is polling somewhere north of Jesus in GE matchups.

But honestly, I think Lugar polls off the primary win in the end.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
The reason it's tied now
Is that Rs are divided. Rs will unify behind the primary winner even though Lugar might be saved by the open primary. It's not like Mourdock had any trouble winning statewide in the past.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
By that logic Lugar should be polling badly in GE matchups as well.


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
He is
Lugar hasn't been held below 2/3 since 1982; to only be polling at 50% is pretty bad. The topline looks good because he still has plenty of crossover support.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Same answer, different seconds
Ah, the Republican mind...  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yep
He's polling at 50% and he'll get upwards of 65%.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Would go from Safe/Likely Republican
to Likely/Lean Republican with Mourdock. Donnelly isn't going anywhere, so Im not worried either way.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
An F rating from NRA takes work.
Lugar's always been a gun grabber. He's just quiet about it.

Even being a gun grabber, the NRA doesn't actually go after people unless they smell blood. They also are very lenient as long as you work with them on a couple of key votes. It causes a lot of grumbling among some of us a little more hardline, but it also helps at times in DC. My biggest complaint about them is that they don't always do their homework on the state level.

Harry Reid is a squish on the issue but got through the lawsuit bann, and Joe Schwarz was awful (and lost anyway) on the state level but voted right once in congress. Both were supported by the NRA as a reward. Granholm went from an F to a B- after her conversion and the NRA stayed out of the race. She would have gotten an B+ by them and a formal endorsement if the rules allowed it. John Cherry had a lot to do with that.

I've known Lugar's record on this issue for years. Lugar's F was well deserved. Why a Republican non-Chicago Midwestern senator does that is beyond me unless it is personal. Especially Indiana which was one of the first Midwestern states to enact conceal carry.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Why he would vote for gun control as an R in a Midwestern state is beyond me. No upside and huge downside potential. He is finding that out.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Where's the confusion?
He obviously personally suppports gun control and is willing to stand on principle.


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
To answer your question.
When you vote against the majority opinion of your constituents that could have serious negative electoral consequences that is usually cause for confusion. At least to me.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
not to me
maybe I'm less cynical than you, but I applaud politicians who vote their conscience, on both sides of the aisle.  

I'm not confused.  To those who are pro-gun control, gun control bills save lives.  Most politicians, on either side of the aisle, try to always do what they believe will save lives, regardless of consequence, even if they may compromise more on budget matters, for example.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
TN HD-89
Apparently, Dems actually have a candidate here. Shelley Breeding (D) was almost forced off of the ballot because of a dispute over whether or not she lives in the district (a new open Republican-dominated district in suburban Knox County). The new district lines cut her property into two pieces.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

NY-17
Carvin raised 76k and loaned the campaign 1 million. http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

H/t Giroux

25, Male, R, NY-10


Nice to see he's willing to put in the $
If he softens Lowey up enough to force her to retire Carvin would have an excellent shot at this seat in 2014.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
If Lowey retires,
I wonder if Chelsea Clinton would still run for this seat? Before, this was a safe seat, but now it is competitive. Would she run, thus risking the possibility of losing in the general, rather than waiting for a better opportunity? Perhaps waiting for Tonko to retire?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Tonko
Paul Tonko is in his second term. He's about to turn 63. I'd guess he'll run for re-election at least the next 10 years. For a New York Democrat, it could be 20.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes
Plus the Capital Region seat is a bad cultural fit for her. I'd be looking towards succeeding Maloney or maybe Nadler (where she's liable to coast through a crowded primary on name rec alone) as the best options if she doesn't want to battle it out for a competitive district.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Chelsea Clinton
Why does everyone think she has an ambition to be a United States Representative?

[ Parent ]
She told a reporter she was interested a while back
And then a lot of Clinton allies kept the story alive.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
What else does she have to do?
She's got a name that will carry her through a primary and what looks to be a decent political mind. There are a lot worse jobs for someone famous to have. It's worked for the Kennedys for 60 years.

[ Parent ]
Tony Strickland raised $300k in a day
I'd guess that Chelsea could double that the day she declared.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Who do you think wins?
Strickland vs Parks?

Strickland vs Brownley?

Someone else?


[ Parent ]
November is far away
While I've got my opinions on November, many of these races will change because of the primaries. This is certainly one of them. So I'll save November for then.

This is a tough race to call. It's hard not to see Strickland scoring in the low to mid 30's. He's got a lot of money, is very popular, and should draw conservatives and libertarians. There are no Libertarian or American Independents in the race.

After that, it's tough to gauge. Brownley doesn't have the state party endorsement. She doesn't have the county party endorsement. That's going to make her job much harder. Brownley has yet to report her fundraising. That'll be a key. Does she have the Netroots behind her? She needs that because she has to take every progressive vote under every rock in the county. Being from Santa Monica she has to convince people who live in Ventura County because they don't like LA County.

The good news is that she has a ton of endorsements. She needs to work them hard and get them campaigning with her. She needs Emily's List, the League of Conservation Voters, and the CTA working for her.

Her Democratic competition is questionable. David Cruz Thayne has been in the race a long time, but only raised $62k last year. I have no idea who Al Goldberg is. Jess Herrera Oxnard Harbor President and has endorsements from key Hispanic figures. He doesn't appear to be much, but he's going to get a decent share of Hispanic votes. With 33% of Democrats being Hispanic that could cut into Brownley's total.

Parks, on the other hand, needs to sell herself to Democrats as the woman who can beat Tony Strickland without actually promising the Democrats anything. She can't alienate her base of moderate Republicans and independents to go after voters that may not vote for her anyway.

I see both Brownley and Parks getting in the mid-20's. I'd give the edge to Brownley, but I may be too optimistic at her ability to win Democrats and I may be underestimating Parks. She knows how to win elections in Ventura County.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Gibson said he's good for 3 more terms
She got married in his D+1 seat in the NYC vacation home belt FWIW  

[ Parent ]
Bachmann was surprisingly good on MTP this morning.
As someone who is generally not a fan of her, I have to admit that she stayed much more on-topic than she usually does. I think that she's getting better at connecting the subject at hand with what she's talking about. Also, I think that the presidential campaign burned her out, and now she seems to have recovered.  I wonder where she'll move to in her new R+9 seat. Does anyone know if she has moved?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

She has not moved
Nor does she have to. Her residence was never her base. So really it doesn't matter as she lives in the blue part of the old 6th. She will run in the 6th again, even though she got drawn out of it.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
NY-6
One of the craziest races so far!
http://m.nypost.com/p/news/loc...

25, Male, R, NY-10

NY-27
Bellavia raised bupkes and has peanut shells on hand. http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

Grimm is in decent shape. http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

25, Male, R, NY-10


Hochul 355k


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Louisiana Fundraising
LA-01: Scalise- $246k raised, $747k CoH
LA-02: Richmond- $88k raised, $251k CoH
LA-03: Boustany- $348k raised, $1.5 million CoH ; Landry- $322k raised, $820k CoH
LA-04: Fleming- $400k raised, $751k CoH
LA-05: Alexander- $134k raised, $114k CoH
LA-06: Cassidy- $214k raised, $1.6 million CoH

I hope Fleming's massive haul is about scaring off a Democratic challenger more than gearing up for a 2014 Senate run

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Is Fleming even slightly vulnerable?


[ Parent ]
No
But LA Dems and the DCCC keep trying to recruit someone against him. I have no clue why they're wasting their time but they see his district as the only one they have a chance in. They're right, but that is less than a 1% chance. Fleming doesn't want to have to campaign tho, so he doesn't want an opponent. Right now, the DCCC and LA Dem Party are trying to recruit state Rep. Patrick Williams.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
In a Fleming vs Cassidy primary, who would be favored?


[ Parent ]
That's a toughie
Remember, Louisiana is difficult, as we will be back with the jungle primary for federal races. This probably hurts both. I'd say Cassidy would be a favorite, because his base is the Baton Rouge suburbs, and he'd also do very well in the New Orleans and Lafayette suburbs, as his new district will represent some areas very near Lafayette. This is where most of the Republican votes are cast. Fleming's district has many Democrats, some of whom may vote for Landrieu. The jungle primary helps him in that they can vote for him, but hurts in that they may choose Landrieu. Fleming does have one big leg up: unlimited financial resources.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
That would be an interesting race-doctor vs. doctor
I'd probably rather see Cassidy win though-he was kind of my political hero of the 2008 elections after beating Don Cazayoux. I really feared Cazayoux was going to be another Gene Taylor that would stay for years, so I was as excited for Cassidy's win as I was for any on that election night that was rather bleak otherwise.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
NY house races
Collins got the independence line which would mean disaster if Bellavia won the R primary. However, with Bellavia's pennies so far that won't happen.

So did Buerkle. Every little bit helps.

http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

Every single R incumbent and several R challengers got the line.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Conservative line?
Has the Conservative Party announced yet?

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

[ Parent ]
Timothy Geithner: GOP to Blame for Economic Problems
http://www.rollcall.com/news/t...

If President Barack Obama had had "more support from his opponents in Congress, then we could have got more things passed that would have put more people back to work more quickly... the actions the president took, at considerable political cost at that time - as you know, he had no support for them, from the Republicans - were incredibly effective in preventing a great depression, getting growth restarted again very, very quickly.

Amazing. President Obama got every Republican vote he needed to pass the stimulus plan and budget he wanted in 2009. How would Republicans voting yes on these bills have helped?

If the actions he took got growth restarted very very quickly what did the President need the Republicans for?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I think he meant he wanted Republicans
to support the original bills, and not the watered down versions of the stimulus and the budget and HCR etc.

Also, how does this deal with electoral politics?


[ Parent ]
He didn't need them
You don't think the stimulus bills and budget, their impact on the economy, and Republican decisions not to support them has to do with electoral politics? That's why Geithner is talking about rationalizing them. If he loses it may be because the public perceives these two items put the nation far too deep into debt and we have little to show for it.

Republicans didn't support either the original bills (I wasn't aware they were different from the final bills) or the ones that passed. So I don't see how their support impacted either. Since the budget only needed 51 senate votes, Democrats put in there a lot of items that didn't make the stimulus.

The line appears to be that the Republicans should've abandoned their principles and become Keynesians because everyone knows that there's only school of economic thought that works.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Republicans supported the stimulus
Didn't Specter, Collins, and Snowe vote for it? And Democrats needed their votes to pass it (they didn't have 60), so they had to water it down.

The 2009 budget was an "omnibus" (separate from the stimulus) that passed in early March of that year, I believe. The budget was President Bush's last budget request, and because of the financial problems of September 2008, passage was postponed to 2009. Senators Shelby, Alexander, Bond, Cochran, Murkowski, Specter, Snowe, and Wicker voted for it. That's kind of ironic, because the omnibus was spending on the same stuff the stimulus spent money on. But whatever.


[ Parent ]
NCDP executive director resigned
In gay sex scandal http://www.newsobserver.com/20...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Congressman Hakeem Jeffries
Ed Towns retiring.

Barron, do it!  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Oops
Separate post.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Link?
Nothing on Politicker yet.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It's just on twitter, right now (nt)


[ Parent ]
Boo-ya
I picked him up Jeffries in the fantasy congress game yesterday when it seemed like he'd have an uphill battle against Towns in the primary.

What does that mean?

One of my underdog picks is now going to waltz to the general and win by like 70 points. :D


[ Parent ]
Twitter always ahead on breaking news
I'm not a social networker. It's very essential for news.

A NYDN reporter tweeted it, quoting 2 sources.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
coincidence
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

I was just reading this.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Here
http://www.wral.com/news/polit...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Hakeem Jeffries
Just tweeted it in all caps.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Brooks Raises $250k
In 8 days.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

Filing deadline is tomorrow, so no Slaughter retirement most likely. Unless she is unopposed in the primary and she can drop out and let the Monroe Democratic Party pick her successor. May be the way she wants to do it anyway.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


RRH
Should endorse Charles Barron!  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Two weeks late for that, isn't it
Would've been a funny April Fools joke.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
KS redistricting: May 15th Deadline
http://www.kansas.com/2012/04/...  

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


Pa Dems don't like new map
http://mainlinemedianews.com/a...

28, Republican, PA-6

What % Obama is the median district?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NC-7
(I mistakenly posted this in an older thread.)
Surprisingly, Ilario Pantano raised more than David Rouzer in the first quarter. He bested him by roughly 50K. However, Rouzer had 100K more on hand than Pantano. I still think the primary will be won by Rouzer because of his cash advantage. Finding out how Pantano outraised Rouzer would be interesting. I know he was endorsed by former Congressman Duncan Hunter a few months ago.

What are the numbers?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
#s
https://twitter.com/#!/jonatha...
https://twitter.com/#!/jonatha...
$140 to 90 raised-advantage Pantano, $146k to $44K on hand- advantage Rouzer, Rouzer spent $164k, Pantano $105

[ Parent ]
I think Pantano has a fair chance to win the primary


[ Parent ]
Yes, He's Giving GOP Primary Voters Too Much Credit
We wouldn't have nominee Romney if that were true. Many (likely most) Primary voters are under-informed and will gravitate to familiar names.

Both Pantano and Jesse Kelly in AZ-02 are almost certain to be the nominees simply because of Name ID, IMO.

By the same token, I think Collins is pretty safe to win the nomination in NY-27 for the same reason.  


[ Parent ]
Also
you can make the argument that GOP primary voters think Ilario & Collins would make better congressman. I know I certainly think that. I cant speak for Kelly but from what I know of Ilario & Chris Collins neither of them want to go to Washington to be backbench porkers. IMHO both Ilario & Collins have the potential to be stars of the next freshman class.

[ Parent ]
Yeah but
neither would actually win their district in a general. Patano got smoked by McIntyre in the best year for Republicans since the 1920s. The district only moved right by like five points, not enough to change the outcome.  

[ Parent ]
Several Points Here
First, my point was that Primary voters often don't look towards the General when making their choices (again, see, for example: Romney).

Second, you can't judge 'retread' candidate by how they go in Round #1 - about half the time they do worse the second time around, and the other half of the time they win the second time around!

So, just because Pantano lost the first time doesn't necessarily mean he'll lose the second time.

(I'm a lot less hopeful in Kelly's case, but I think AZ-02 was likely a lost cause either way - I think it may be the only district in the country with a GOP registration advantage that I consider to be a Likely-to-Safe D seat anyway at this point.)

Collins I don't have a read on yet - NY-27 being R+7 should mean that Hochul is toast, but NY is a backwards place (yeah, I said it!!) where stupid **** like "regional rivalries" can interfere with the normal dynamics of a race. So, for all I know, Monroe co. will kill Collins' chances... Who knows?!  


[ Parent ]
A major change...
Is McIntyre is taking on new territory and his base was removed. That alone would still make Pantano the favorite in the race. Against Rouzer, he probably has an extremely small chance. I would say Likely R against Rouzer, Tossup/Tilt against Pantano.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
AAS34
McIntyre faced bums of the month before 2010. They were unknown, underfunded and underwhelming.  The key to his fortress was his home county (mostly gone now), the AA vote (reduced in the new seat) plus you cann beat anyone with no one.  The 1st time he, since his intial election, he faces someone with grit and money he nearly goes down.  

This a typical for incumbents on the front end and back end.  Their reputation for winning and superior resources builds an aura around them that scares away strong foes. Then they pound the palookas and build an invincible record.  Then someone pokes behind the wizard's curtains and exposes the incumbent for what he is. He is  just another candidate who puts his shoes on one at a time. I think basing his reputation when he beat folks in 1998 or 2000 or even 2008 is like John Spratt's situation or numerous other D incumbents.  Its easy to run up the score against Ohio U but when you face Ohio State its just as easy.

How about that for mixing metaphors?  


[ Parent ]
As aas34 said, you have to look at territory.
Pantano only got 'smoked' in a cluster of rural counties that love McIntyre and the bacon that he brings home. He overperformed Obama by 10-20+ points in these Yellow Dog areas (and Obama even won some, so MIntyre got over 70% in some places). Take those counties away, and McIntyre ekes out a 50-50 win. Under these new lines, he's gone.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
That's not totally true
A 2012 electorate will not look the same as 2010.

It's "Tossup" with Pantano, "Lean R" with Rouzer. There's a reason why it's not ranked higher on the takeover list by Cook or Rothenberg.


[ Parent ]
I imagine Cook and Rothenberg think Pantano is going to win the primary
Therefore, they have the race rated as Tossup and Leans Republican, respectively. I imagine if Cook had a tilt category, than he would move the race in that direction. Rothenberg seems to not think very highly of McIntyre, due to many of the reasons given already.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Cook has a rule
thatrule that he doesn't put an incumbent in any worse of a category than 'Tossup.' he only breaks this rule in very unusual circumstances.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It's a guideline
He usually doesn't put the seats in the other party until after Labor Day. His reasoning is that an incumbent that's won a district shouldn't be less than a toss-up.

That rule goes out the window because of redistricting, as the incumbent hasn't won the district. Thus he has 5 incumbent Republicans in the Democratic Lean/Likely and 3 incumbent Democrats on the other side.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
That's true,
but the district moved much farther to the right, and the down ballot Dem strength is significantly less present. I'll admit that the 'he's gone' statement was a bit iver the top (you have to understand, I'm a big fan of Pantano), but I'd still see the race as Lean R if Ilario were to win the primary.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Rouzer
I find it interesting that people think Rouzer is such a formidable candidate when he won his 2008 state senate race with just 51.93% to 48.07% for Democrat Kay Carroll. Incidentally, SD-12 went 63.5% McCain vs. 35.7% Obama, so Rouzer underperformed McCain by some 12%.

In any case, the NC-07 district is a slight McIntyre lean in 2012 regardless of the GOP nominee.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Lol
You really believe that? Unless you have polling to show me otherwise, it's Lean R. Yes, McIntyre will overperform the President, and will do so quite handily in some areas (especially Duplin County if it's still in the district), but his 'counties of destruction,' as I like to call them, are gone (except possibly Duplin, but again I can!t remember.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Yes
I really believe that. And Duplin County is still in the district. Every part of the district voted heavily for either McIntyre or Etheridge during several election cycles before 2010, but you can hang your hat on that one if you want. I don't feel the need to persuade anyone. The election results will be persuasive enough.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Caveat
I just realized that we're working off different assumptions. The new NC-07 is about 7 points worse for McIntyre than it used to be, but it isn't going to be 2010 2.0, so we can't assume a 54-46 Republican generic congressional vote (national) like we got in 2010, so that's four points that McIntyre won't have to worry about (if voting patterns are static, though the national numbers might not match what happens in NC-07). I think that you're assuming that Obama wins North Carolina, and if that is the case, then yes, McIntyre has a slight advantage. I'm assuming that even if Obama is narrowly reelected (a distinct possibility), he loses North Carolina.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
In any CD
race from year to year there are a multiple of factors that come into play.  Some help either party while some hurt and yes things affect either candidate as well.

1st 7% change in seat-big GOP plus
2nd likely decline in R generic number-D plus
3rd the seat is much more suburban then rural then before. GOP plus as suburban voters tend to be more loyal downballot
4th there is a good bit of new area to NC7 so whatever advantage the incumbent congressman had is somewhat diminished.
5th the Presidential year blend of voters will be more favorable to D's then Rs(how much is unknown)
6th Surely the R primary will not be a bitter as 2010 as the two other leading R (sore losers) voted for McIntyre. GOP plus
7th show me the money!!! The GOP got outspent 3-2 in 2010. What will the ratio be in 2012?

So there are alot of moving parts in 2012 that are to quanify or qualify right now.  Frankly a big primary win for either of the two major candidates in the GOP primary would  be a huge indicator.

Lets be clear I am not  predicting an outcome yet for NC7.  Due to changes in this seat I do not believe a huge D or Obama wave will save McIntyre.  If he wins it will be because he runs 1000% away from Obama and Pelosi!!!   McIntyre's hopes lay with any weakness of the GOP candidate and how far he can run from Pelosi and Obama.  


[ Parent ]
NC-07
In 2010, the combined Democratic congressional vote in the NC-07 district was 45.32%. That includes the parts where Etheridge lost heavily and the parts where Jones crushed a nonentity. My prediction is that with a presidential year electorate, regardless of whether Obama wins or loses the state, McIntyre is at least slightly favored to do 5% better than the 2010 Dem candidates in the aggregate.

In 2008, the combined Democratic vote was 61.53%(and again, that included Jones crushing a nonentity). So, looked at from the other side, I think in 2012 McIntyre will do no worse than 10% below what Democrats received combined in this district in 2008 . So, I think McIntyre will take at least 51.53% of the vote.

If Rouzer is the nominee, he will have limited appeal in the Cape Fear region; if Pantano is the nominee, he will have limited appeal in the Raleigh exurbs. That's the drawback, I suppose, in the GOP's drawing these weirdly gerrymandered districts.

Finally, it's worth noting that this district pulls together the Coastal areas where Obama most underperformed the rest of the ballot. Perdue barely won the district 48.52% to 48.44% and Hagan barely lost the district 48.20% to 48.48%. Beth Wood, June Atkinson, and Walter Dalton were also right around 48.5% of the vote each.

I think for McIntyre that's the worst case scenario in 2012. Of course, that would be a loss, since no Libertarian has filed for NC-07 in 2012, which is why I call it a slight lean rather than a lean.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
If Ellmers
showed up anything in 2010 it is this.  The Suburbs of Raleigh have a powerful Generic R pull in CD races.  Weak candidates and lack of funding has masked that in seats like NC13 or NC2 where R candidates, due to redistricting, had little or no chance in past years.

I personally McIntyre will not run as strong, relative to the D ticket, in his new areas and certainly not as strong in suburban areas that are new to him.  

That logic, of course, would be a good reason for Pantano to win R primary.  The suburban areas do not know McIntyre and certainly are more R oriented in congressional and legislative elections.  


[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong
but you don't think any congressional GOP incumbents will lose in 2012, except possibly Walsh in IL-08, right?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I had not really put a number to it
but I suspect some GOP members will lose in 2012. I do not have Ellmers in that grouping.

Most vulnerable GOP members would be Buerkle, Gibson, Bartlett, Conseco, Renacci, Walsh, Schilling, Biggert, Latham, Heck and Lungren. That's most vulnerable and its likely 3-6 of them will lose.  I hesitate to pin point a precise number  as things happen.  Candidates get arrested for DUI or blow up in a townhall meeting or whatever.  So even Walsh and Bartlett could survive.  


[ Parent ]
Dold too


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
More NC-07
By my calculation, if McIntyre were simply to match Obama's percentage in the parts of the new NC-07 district that he gains from Etheridge & Jones, then he would need about 54.5% of the vote in the parts of the old Seventh that he keeps. In 2010, he got 49.5% so that would be a 5% improvement. If he matches Hagan, that drops to about 52.5% that he would need to carry in the old Seventh; if McIntyre matches Perdue in the new areas, he needs just a mere 51.4% in the parts of NC-07 that he retains.

I think McIntyre will easily match Hagan's 2008 vote percentages in the areas he gains from Etheridge and Jones, which would mean he should need to improve no more than 3% over his 2010 vote in the old Seventh to win.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
One thing
I'm also certain that Patano will need is massive help from the NRCC, should he win the primary. He's just not that popular with Mccain and Burr Blue Dog Democrats and I would expect McIntyre to perform over 2010 levels in familiar territory.

I'll say Tossup; you'll say Leans R and we will just have to wait for the general campaign to begin.  


[ Parent ]
*over


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
The 2012 electorate in NC
versus 2010 or 2008 applies quite a bit less in the new NC7.

In 2012 as opposed to 2010 you might, and I say might, see a higher % of AA votes. That's somewhat of a moot point as the % of AA's in the new NC7 is quite a bit lower now then in 2010.

The other noticeable change in electorate in NC between say 2012 or 2010 or 2008 will be young voters.  The 2008 Obama/D surge was based on big turnout difference in AA voters and young voters (who surged for Ds.  Will the youth vote storm the gates for more hope and change in 2012?  I doubt it but I also note that the new NC7 does have the same mix of young Obama voters you found in Wake or Mecklenburg county areas.  I am sure Obama will be strong in NC4 or NC12 or NC1 but that's not NC7's mix of AA or youngish voters.  


[ Parent ]
I helped with that.
Rouzer's biggest problem is that a lot of the district's Republican primary oters already voted for Pantano twice, in the 2010 primary and GE. Rouzer should have big numbers coming out of Johnston County, but it probably won't be enough.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*voters


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I don't even think he wins Johnston County.
Rouzer's campaign has been an utter disaster so far - he hasn't done a thing. With the primary a month away, it looks like Pantano should win.

However, if Rouzer begins to campaign, he could definitely win.


[ Parent ]
HI: Linge Does $1.3 million
She's raised $3.1 million in two quarters. Hirono has raised $2.5 million in 6 quarters. She's stepped it up tho, doing $1 million this quarter.
http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Go Linda!
She already beat Maizie once...

[ Parent ]
BREAKING: David Axelrod Endorses Mitt Romney for President
http://www.redstate.com/erick/...

We certainly don't want to continue on the road we're on. What was the other alternative?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Can't think of how else...
it could be spun. What exactly did he mean? I'm pretty sure he mixed up words but if this isn't used in the G.E. it would be a shame.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
LOL!
You would think that politicians everywhere would work out their sentences before they say them.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
He's trying what worked in 2008
Back then Obama could run as the charismatic outsider with a plan against the disliked establishment.  Now he is the disliked establishment.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Help Dennis out
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

I think it's time we do the right thing and help Dennis make the right choice.

http://action.kucinich.us/page...

Jim McDermott could stop being selfish and just retire.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I Would Definitely Support Kucinich Over McDermott...
...whom I basically consider to be a traitor. (Yeah, I said it.)

Anyway, a Congress without Jim McDermott would be a much better place.  


[ Parent ]
IJB
What makes McDermott any different than any other Congressional urban progressive type? I don't see why Dennis would be any better than him.

[ Parent ]
Youngins Need To Check Some History... (nt)


[ Parent ]
He supported Sadam Hussein in the 2003 Iraq invasion
He wasn't the only one either, but he was the most prominent one.  He got the name "Baghdad Jim" as a result, due to his trip to Baghdad in Fall 2002.

Though this Ironically makes Kucinich a fitting replacement for him, since he actively opposed deposing Qaddafi during the Libyan revolt.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
the guy who supported Qaddhafi isn't the traitor?


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I support Dennis
For WA-10. I encourage you to go to that site and encourage him to run in the 10th. That is Kucinich's official campaign site and he is asking if he should run in Washington. Tell him we need to keep true Progressives in Congress, especially from WA-10!!  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Some Dem
Is really mad at Andy.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmi...

I love these inside baseball and grudges.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Ray Kelly warming to 2013 mayoral run?
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

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