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Morning Roundup for April 16th, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


I wholeheartedly believe that Tax Day should be moved to the first Monday in November.

POTUS

Romney: Mitt and Ann will give their first sit-down interview of the year tonight on Nightline, at Fenway Park with Diane Sawyer. Over-under on the number of times Sawyer asks the Romneys about gay marriage? (The linked Roll Call article also has some good fundraising data for Senate races in New Mexico and Utah.)

Rosen: Hilary Rosen's attack on Ann Romney has stayed in the headlines and was a featured story on the Sunday talk shows. Yes, the Rosen story has helped Romney, but the bigger issue is that Sandra Fluke, Trayvon Martin, and now Rosen have dominated the news for a month now. The media is very bored with the Obama-Romney matchup already and is looking for anything controversial to stir the pot.

Geithner: After three years of running the Treasury department, Tim Geithner has decided that there's nothing he can do about the economy because it's all the GOP's fault. Apparently Republicans have controlled both houses of Congress for Obama's entire term and Geithner and Democrats never had a chance to pass their agenda.

Veepstakes: Ed Gillespie, the former RNC Chairman and the newest addition to Romney's inner circle, refuted reports that he had been tapped to run the VP search (which Cheney did for Bush in 2000). Gillespie did not give a timetable for a VP announcement, which I expect will come in August.

Gingrich: Yeah, Newt's still running (as, for different reasons, is Ron Paul), and he publicly asked for Santorum's endorsement this weekend. Sigh.

Senate

Hawaii: Linda Lingle outraised Mazie Hirono again, $1.3M to $1.0M. Ed Case has yet to report.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown had another strong quarter, with $2.4M raised and $6.3M in the bank. Josh Mandel (who had an excellent Q4) hasn't released his figures yet.

Wisconsin: A bit of a disappointing quarter for the Republicans in this race: $660K for Tommy Thompson, $650K for Mark Neumann, and $110K (plus, apparently, a large self-loan) for Eric Hovde. Jeff Fitzgerald didn't release Q1 numbers but has only $35K on hand, so he may be a non-factor. Meanwhile, Tammy Baldwin snared $2M.

House

AZ-08: Roll Call takes a look at tomorrow's most interesting election, the special GOP primary in the open Giffords district. St. Sen. Frank Antenori has struggled with fundraising, Jesse Kelly looks like the favorite but has the baggage of his 2010 loss, and first-timer Martha McSally, whom the article focuses on, may be the best candidate of the bunch but hasn't had the time to build name rec. McSally may run again in the August primary, no matter who wins the special in June.

LA-03: Charles Boustany won the quarter again, but Jeff Landry has closed the CoH gap, and Politico is now featuring a member vs. member race that we've been closely watching since Day 1. The particularly fun thing about this one is that since it's Louisiana, there is no primary, and if no one gets a majority on the jungle ballot in November, there's a December runoff. There's no third wheel in the race now, but a Blue Dog could create some interesting calculus for Boustany and Landry.

MA-06: Richard Tisei (R) outraised John Tierney again in Q1, $354K to $320K. This will be the only competitive race in Massachusetts this fall.

MI-07: Joe Schwarz says he'll make a decision this week on whether to challenge Rep. Tim Walberg as a Democrat. The ex-Republican, whose home is no longer in the district, twice promised us decisions last week, so don't hold your breath.

NC-11: Young businessman Ethan Wingfield is the second Republican to go up on TV in this open district, matching Mark Meadows' $25K buy from last week. Wingfield's ad references Scripture, not a bad idea in this very Christian district.

NY-08: Rep. Ed Towns will retire, ending a long, undistinguished career. This sets up a primary between Asbm. Hakeen Jeffries and all-time RRH legend Charles Barron. The GOP has no presence in the 8th, which is majority-black and based in Bed-Stuy, so we're free to root our hearts out for Charles here. Note that the modifications to the special master's map played a big role here, as the original draft excluded Jeffries' base from the new 8th.

WA-??: Help Dennis Decide! A quick visit to Dennis Kucinich's campaign site allows you to take a survey: Should Dennis Run in Washington State? That's right: Dennis is asking we, the people, to decide whether the show will go on. If you ever wondered what a call to action looked like, this is it.

Redistricting

Kansas: Still no progress here, but at least we have a deadline: May 15, or preferably, the end of the legislative session on May 10. The linked article does a great job of explaining the various factions and reasons why Kansas will finish 50th in this redistricting cycle, but in short, the Senate map is holding everything up. State and federal courts would take over if there's no deal by the 15th.

New York: The NYS Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Senate GOP, allowing them to add a 63rd seat to the chamber over the protests of Democrats. The new district, in suburban Albany, is competitive but is drawn to favor GOP Assemblyman George Amedore.

Pennsylvania: The redistricting commission released revised legislative maps on Friday after the courts struck down the originals. The overall result, compared to the first draft, seems to be a wash, with a few seats becoming more or less competitive and a few Democrats complaining.

BostonPatriot :: Morning Roundup for April 16th, 2012
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Obama raised combined 53M
in march

http://www.wral.com/news/polit...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


Good #
Finally beating Bush/Cheney in the same time period.

I am more interested in April, to see if Obama gets a spike with Romney set as the nominee.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
WI-Sen: We're splitting our cash here. Those combined hauls don't equal what Baldwin brought in, but it would be a lot closer.

AZ-08: I'm not sure that we won't see all three Republican candidates again in the fall, at least if the eventual nominee loses the special GE.

KS redistricting: Will Brownback call a special session? Methinks yes.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


KS
May 15th appears firm. So the special session running from the 11th to then would only do good if it looks they are close to an agreement on the 10th.

Also that May 10th date is already technically part of a special session (the last day of the annual veto override session)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
I'll Just Reiterate Again...
...That I think there will be no deal in Kansas on any of the maps, and the whole thing's going to court.

On the Congressional map end, I think the Fed courts will do a pretty obvious "least change" map. That might screw over Manhattan (which will probably be put in KS-01, which ironically may strengthen KS-02 slightly), but ultimately I think it'll have no effect on the Congressional forecast.

The bigger question mark are the legislative maps. From what I'm getting around here is that the Kansas state courts are riddled with Democrats and liberals, which makes me concerned that they may try to draw Dem gerrymanders of not just the State Senate, but whatever Dem-friendliness they can get out of the KS State House map as well.

But I'd think that if the state courts also go with a "least change" formula as well, I'm guessing the forecast doesn't change much in the legislature, and I suspect the Dem-lib GOP coalition in the State Senate is about to go out the door...  


[ Parent ]
Special K
Where would it be best for the GOP for Dennis! to run? I worry that a run in WA-01 could split the crazy "bold progressive" vote with Darcy Burner and allow Suzan DelBene to waltz into the general. A run in WA-06 would probably take him nowhere. A run in WA-07 wouldn't matter from the GOP's perspective. I think a run in WA-10 could be the best from our perspective because he may alienate just enough people to allow Dick Muri to win.

Fixing a link
Your LA-03 link links to Gingrich wanting Santorum's endorsement.

PA-4 Primary
Race remains wide open according to poll with Reilly leading barely...

http://www.yorkdispatch.com/ne...

28, Republican, PA-6


PA-Legislature
http://www.post-gazette.com/st...

Actually the article seems to confuse social liberalism with pro-unionism.  The guys opposing the prevailing wage law and liquor store privatization are socially conservative union guys representing union districts.

28, Republican, PA-6


MN-Sen
Klobuchar with 1 million raised.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Links
http://atr.rollcall.com/rhode-...

Rhode Island: Gemma Back for Primary Rematch With Cicilline

Marco Rubio: 'I'm not going to be the vice president'
http://www.latimes.com/news/po...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Florida Redistricting
What's the resolution on that? Wasn't there supposed to be a court hearing? The filing deadline is in 3 weeks.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Florida redistricting==parts one and two!!!
1st the senate map or the redone senate map is back with Supremes.  The court has to decide if the corrections are enough to satisfy whatever their view of Fair act is.  The state senate gets one redo and they have had it.  So if the court wants to object to any seat they will have to redo it themselves.  Can they do that in three weeks?  The Chief Justice of the court could decide to go to the bathroom for that long and delay conferences or votes or whatever.

Part B of 1st part is that signature gathering period starts in three weeks and filing ends on 06-08-2012. The lines have to be set so precincts can be determined and voter registration cards have to be mailed out.  If the court delays too long no counties can redraw precincts and mail out voter cards or collect signatures for candidates?  So the sooner the better.

2nd today is 1st day of hearings on new CD map for Florida in court in Leon county?  There are a 1000 questions that arise from this situation.  State legislators have just adjourned and they have had little time to prepare legal arguements.  I would suggest that there is a 99% certainly the passed lines are used this year.  Other then that I am clueless as to how long the procedures will take.  


[ Parent ]
Adelson stops wasting money
Donates 5 million to Vin Weber's Super PAC for house races.

The DCCC will be swamped on the money front.

I don't want to hear anymore about Ds in the house outraising Rs, because most of the money goes to the Super PACs.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Vin Weber
for someone who's been basically out of the spotlight for 20 years he's become a surprisingly major force in the Romney team. Certainly seems like he's on track for a cabinet post if Mitt wins.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Chief of Staff?
I know he was a big time lobbyist before T-Paw's campaign, but I wonder if the fact he was a high level T-Paw aide is the only reason he's such a big deal with Romney?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Fantastic Op Ed from Sen Scott Brown
Link: http://www.bostonherald.com/ne...

I'm a little worried though that this kind of rhetoric may hurt him in Massachusetts.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



Welch's money problem?
http://www.politicspa.com/low-...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Welch and Smith
This race will come down to whomever has a stronger ground game vs. advertisements.  Smith has no ground game so he has to go on the air.  Rohrer has a ground game, but it is too well concentrated.  Welch has a ground game that has never lost a primary, the Republican establishment.

With this being a low turnout affair, I am not sure how it breaks.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
About the NY State Senate map...
What is the partisan breakdown "supposed" to be?

And why was it necessary/preferable/whatever to add a 63rd district, anyway

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


34R-23D-4ID-2S
34Rs (all 32 current + Oppenheimer + Kruger), 23 D vote sinks, 4 safely ID districts, and 2 swing seats (Avella and Adabbo).

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It just shows you how tight a margin the GOP is working with here
Those 4ID seats are seally Dem seats. I would trust the ID about as far as I could throw them. Right now they are gaming the system by working with the GOP but if the Dems retake the Seante they will game them instead.
Also which 2 seats are you calling swing? 1 is the new 63rd seat in Albany. What's the other?

[ Parent ]
Where does the
new Albany seat fit in with your math?

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
They needed to add a 63rd seat
To avoid having to axe a GOP leaning seat in population losing WNY. Now the target population is a bit lower so you are able to keep the old seats  

[ Parent ]
Why would Santorum endorse Gingrich?
After all, when it would have been beneficial for Santorum having Gingrich bow out, did he do it?

Quite so.
I expect Santorum is going to keep quiet for the rest of the spring, then start campaigning for selected GOP House/Senate/etc. candidates in the summer and fall. There'll be an appearance with Romney somewhere, and of course he'll get a good time-slot at the Convention. I voted for Gingrich in the Georgia primary and am glad to have done so, but the idea of Santorum endorsing Gingrich at this point is just silly. It would actually make Both of them look ridiculous.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
agreed
I don't see Santorum endorsing anyone until May; and more likely to be the day after the Texas primary than before.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
It's interesting you pick the Texas primary
I was trying to figure out the earliest possibly date Santorum might "officially" get on board the Romney train, and the day after Texas came to my mind, too.

So May 30th is, perhaps, a date to circle.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


[ Parent ]
Romney puts Beth Myers in charge of the VP search.
http://news.yahoo.com/romney-p...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

Romney
Hopefully he makes a mid-summer announcement of the nominee.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Odd choice
Gillespie would be much better. Usually, the VP search committee is led by an insidery insiders insider, someone who knows everything about everyone, and, if not, is close to someone who does. Myers really doesn't have experience out of Romney's circle.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Who is really close to Romney
That could be a VP?

Christie?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Pawlenty
Or Christie, as you said.

Toomey or Snyder perhaps?

But let us remember, the last governor to be elected VP was...

A virtual cookie to whomever gets that one right.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Spiro
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Good job, guys
Bonus question: what was the last Governor-Governor ticket to win?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Wilson-Marshall
C'mon, you got to give harder ones than that!

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
OK
Without looking it up, who was the last president of Dutch descent?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Off the top of my head I would say FDR
But that seems rather easy-I'm thinking one of the more recent ones must have some Dutch ancestry that isn't evident in their last name.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
OK, too easy
FDR is right. The others were Teddy and, of course, Van Buren.

How about this, then: Who was the last U.S. president without known Irish ancestry?

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Nope
One of Clinton's paternal great-grandmothers was Irish.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Yeah, should be FDR. All of the others seem
really unlikely.

[ Parent ]
Bonus question
If you apply the "one-drop rule" who was the first black president? Who was the last before Obama?*

*That can be reasonably evidenced, of course.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
No more takers?
Well, I won't keep anyone in suspense! (Though it's easy enough to look up.)

The last president with no known Irish ancestry was Gerald Ford.

The first 'black president' was almost surely Thomas Jefferson (based on the 'one-drop rule'); the last before Obama was quite likely Calvin Coolidge, though an argument has been made for Dwight Eisenhower.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
It says alot about this country that these are hard questions
With Whites, ethnicity is almost invisible now, as Americans are so inter-married that its very difficult to trace ancestry back to a specific country or region.  Give it a few more centuries and we'll probably see racial lines blurring as well.

Though Admittedly people like me (whose families immigrated to the US post-WWII) still have some catching up to do.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Know that one
it's Harding.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
He's one
The presidents for whom a case can be made to have had black ancestry are: Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Dwight Eisenhower. Ultimately, answers may vary depending on how persuasive one finds the evidence in each individual case. So, in that sense at least, it was a bit of a trick question!

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
if you go back far enough
Everybody is related to everybody.

Take a given person; assume average length of 25 years between  each generation and go back 1000 years. 40 generations.
So, 2 ^ 40 = approx 1.1 Trillion (much larger than the total number of people that were on the planet then)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
And we all came out of Africa
So if you go back far enough, everyone has some African ancestry.

[ Parent ]
Um, no


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Um, no


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Haha
1) Why did you post this twice 15 minutes apart?
2) I don't know about the others, but the last thing I want to see on RRH is a creationist vs. evolution debate, which is what you're seemingly trying to start by going against the scientific CW.

[ Parent ]
Blame my cellphone.


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Or the monkey


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yes, the last thing I meant was to spark a debate here
Humor, people. Although there are a minority of scholars who argue that Eden was in Ethiopia, so technically my comment could be creationist. (Also, I just learned that some believe Eden was in Kansas City, Missouri.)

[ Parent ]
Was that a jab at Romney?
That seems a bit strange...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Not intentionally
I actually hadn't read that it was the LDS Church that believed in the Kansas City Eden when I made the comment (that's what you get when you skim Wikipedia). Looking more closely at it, I can't tell whether it's something the the majority of present-day Mormons believe or not.

[ Parent ]
another theory
Is in the middle east but has been under water for a few thousand years.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Cleveland?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I think that I flubbed that one.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'll Go Obvious...
...And say Van Buren.  

[ Parent ]
To be clear
Of primarily Dutch descent.

Even Obama has some Dutch ancestry.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Spiro Agnew


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'll dance a jig if it's Snyder
It gets him out of Michigan. :)

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Ann Marie Buerkle receives Independence Party endorsement
This should help...

http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...

Walker/Martinez 2016


Interesting
Their endorsements just make no sense to me going by their endorsements in the past.  Are they like the NRA and just supporting incumbents?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Isn't that self-evident?
The Fix ‏ @TheFix
"Mitt Romney. If he wins...we lose". -- Kicker quote of new Obama super PAC ad.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Yes
It sure is..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Depends on the meaning of "we"
It definitely doesn't include me.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
WY-Sen: Liz Cheney
Here's the link from this weekend's news:

http://m.trib.com/opinion/more...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Good
I am all for having Liz Cheney run for Senate.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
CT-05: Roraback up 17 on Generic D?
Hmm... Andrew Roraback claims to be up 50-33 over generic D whereas Wilson-Foley (a Murphy donor in 06. . .) and Bernier are down to generic D. That doesn't pass my smell test. I do think Roraback can give Donavan a tough race, though, and maybe even win (if Romney does well in the Litchfield Hills/NW CT in general). He is one of my favorite candidates, but this poll smells fishy.

Link/Who's the pollster?


[ Parent ]
Joe Schwarz want the spotlight on him
Look at me! Look at me! I'm important.


I hope he runs and gets crushed in the primary.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


By Sharon Renier
nt

[ Parent ]
PPP's "LV" Wisconsin Poll Reverses Their Earlier Poll Result [shock!1!]
So, is anyone else surprised that PPP goes to a "likely voter" screen in Wisconsin, and Walker is miraculously up again in their poll?!

I'm getting to the point where I'm ready to just ignore all of PPP's non-LV polls.  


Walker is at 50%
Tom Barrett (D): 45 (49)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 2
Undecided: 3 (3)

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
ANOTHER Trivedi?!
LOL, it would be hilarious if nutroots darling Manan Trivedi loses by 20+ points to Jim Gerlach in PA-06 and then another guy named Trivedi steals votes from Democrats and loses them the gubernatorial race.

Trivedi!1!1!


[ Parent ]
Underlying Feeling
There is an underlying feeling people have during recalls. It's either, "hey, I get to throw the guy out. Cool." or "He was elected for four years. This recall is unfair and politically motivated."

I voted in the Grey Davis recall. I voted to recall Davis, because I wanted a Republican in office. Yet I also felt that the recall was wrong. Davis won fair and square and we shouldn't be throwing people out because we can. I wonder how swing voters feel.

Davis was doomed because he really wasn't very likeable. People didn't feel any sympathy for him. Walker may be a different story.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Trivedi
That would be funny if Walker won with a plurality because of a guy named Trivedi.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Likely voters model
Is 1 point more R than D. The Milwaukee suburbs will be out in force!

Go Scott!

Doea this mean that we hold the senate?

Also the electorate for the D primary is only 41% D. Rs should absolutely mess with it and win.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Obama's also down to a 50-44 lead on Romney
down from a 53-39 lead in their last poll.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Yes
Basically the PPP registered voter polls mean garbage.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
It's funny
But very often, PPP + LV = Raz

[ Parent ]
I've noticed that
Ras is still usually a point or two better for us but the difference isn't as evident when PPP goes to LV's. Then again, almost all of Rasmussen's polls are LV, which is why they found such pro-GOP results all through 2009/early 2010.

[ Parent ]
Also Thompson up 47-45 over Baldwin
ALL Ds in the poll are unpopular!! Obama best at 47/47

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Arizona: Poll Shows Jesse Kelly With Small Lead Over Ron Barber

http://atr.rollcall.com/arizon...


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

It's a GOP poll
For the record.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
They orginally said that
And then removed it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes, but
It was conducted by National Research Inc. which is a GOP pollster. It was not commissioned by the Kelly campaign, which was the error that was removed.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
But
Which makes it less suspect as a cooked internal. Could be just like PPP.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
No cross-tabs no questionnaire
Any poll where you can't look behind the screen should be taken with a grain of salt. PPP's home cooking is right there in front of us.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Gallup: Romney +2
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153...

The daily tracking begins with Romney up 47-45.


PPP & Gallup
both had good R news today!!!

[ Parent ]
3 in a row
Gallup: Romney up 47-45
Ras: Romney up 47-44
FOX: Romney up 46-44

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
I'm surprised
We haven't seen more post-Santorum polls yet. Thought it would be a good news coverage for a poll. Perhaps there will be more by the end of this week, but it seems they have been pretty slow to get the new polls out.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Trend?
Obama is doomed!!!11!!

Just like we would have said with 3 polls showing otherwise for Mitt.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
I'm worried
I'm not totally off the tracks 2010 worried yet, but the 3 National polls and the Wisconsin poll have me down right now, thats for sure.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
People are more savvy
in polling nowadays.  I think most people realize that polls are nearly as important as actual elecitons!!! Or they seem that way.  

Voters for Paul and other fring candidates seem to be so much more eager then others to poll.  You see them at 18% in a poll and then 10% on primary day.  

Voters also understand that electiability is an issue for voters.  So Paul and Santorum basically vote twice for their guys in some polls.  Once for their guy against Romney and the second type by with holding a vote for Romney against Obama.  We saw a CO poll where Paul was the best candidate against Obama in that state.  right. Could it be strategic polling???

Likewise if self identify as an indie or democrat to a pollster, and then poll for Romney, it is a twofer vote situation.  I do not lie to pollsters but I have heard that others do.  


[ Parent ]
First Gallup tracking poll
Obama at 45% approval and down 2 to Mitt.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153...

25, Male, R, NY-10


Astounding stats!
Walker at 96/3 approval among Rs. Gets 95-97% of Rs. Ds get 1-2%!! No union members. Nothing.

http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...

Not everyone in a union hates Walker. 34% of union households approve!  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Reading liberal blogs
As I always like to do in such days. There is a total meltdown. Ds suddenly hate and I curse WI.

If Walker wins, he's probably a shoo-in in 2014. He gets a mandate.
We just need to hold the senate.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
If Walker were to get, say, 55%
He would immediately become part of the VP discussion. But I don't see him getting that much since the Dem floor in Wisconsin is quite high. I don't think it will be more than 52-48 either way.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
To be honest, I think he should be part of the discussion regardless.

As much as I dislike the man, he knows how to fire up the base, get things he want passed passed and knows how to win a blue state (albiet in a red year, but still).

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
That only works if Kleefisch survives the recall
Otherwise picking Walker as VP will just undo all the work he's done.

[ Parent ]
It would be supremely funny
if Kleefisch lost and Walker won. You'd probably have a Mike Curb/Bobby Freeman type situation where Walker would never be able to leave the state.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
That's a VERY likely scenario
Which is why the GOP needs to frame this as RECALL elections and being for or against the process while the Dems need to make this about individual elections. If voters are viewing these races as elections no different than regular ones in Nov then you could have voters vote for Walker but against Kleefisch.

[ Parent ]
I Don't Agree - I Don't Think It's Likely at All
In a recall race like WI LG, it's going to go one of two ways: 1) a race governed by name ID, or 2) a straight 'generic partisan' race.

If it's the first, Kleefisch already leads by 6, 46%-40%. If I were a Dem, I'd be discouraged by these numbers. Kleefisch only needs to grow by 4% to win (is there a 3rd party in this race?...). The Dem candidate needs to grow by 10%. If it's a Name ID race, I'd rather be Kleefisch.

If it's a 'generic partisan' race, then Kleefisch wins if Walker does, and she loses if Walker does.

Either way, I think the odds are very low that Walker wins and Kleefisch loses...  


[ Parent ]
I dont think a real Dem makes it out of the Dem Gov primary
My two cents is that one of the anti-recall Dems wins the Dem Gov primary with well under 50% of the vote. Kleefisch will then be the pound of flesh they extract from Walker.

[ Parent ]
Is she in real danger?
I didn't realize that.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
lol kos meltdown
I'm glad that I don't see that here even when we lose.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
One of the benefits
Of still being solo and not a part of a bigger site.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
WI-PPP
Wasn't the electorate in the poll slightly more R than 2010?  It will be interesting to see if the Recall turnout goes that way.  I doubt Presidential turnout will be that red, so Obama is likely up a little more, but I have serious doubts as to whether Democrats can knock off Walker.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
lots of good stuff in there...
Here's one of which I took notice.  If these are Likely Voters, check out Approvals for people that DIDN'T vote in 2008.
Obama/Didn't vote in that election 24 62 14
Walker/Didn't vote in that election 64 31 5
Barrett/Didn't vote in that election 26 50 24

That would show again that the dispirited "Stay home" voters of 2008 are now Likely voters in 2012.  This would be another data point against 2008 being like 2012.  If only they asked who people voted for in 2010 and had the "Didn't vote" we could make an educated guess about a comparison there.  
Also notice the hated Mitt Romney is only 38/49 with PPP, who notoriously skews negative in a state that he probably won't win, nor need to win.  My guess is Mitt will be just about even nationally by the summer, if not better.



[ Parent ]
Redistricting and Academia
The progressive do-gooders' campaign against legislatively enacted plans and Baker v. Carr continues: http://txredistricting.org/pos...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Mandel $2 million quarter
OH-SEN
First time Brown has outraised Mandel?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Mandel won Q4
Before that he hadn't formally organized his campaign committee so it's hard to tell. But both are very impressive; this should be the 3rd most expensive race after MA and VA, and could even pass VA if the polls tighten.

[ Parent ]
CNN: Obama Up 9
RVs

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2...

Here's what we got:

Gallup: Romney up 47-45
Ras: Romney up 47-44
FOX: Romney up 46-44
CNN: Obama up 52-43

Spot the outlier.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Outliers
ABC News/WP has Obama up 51-44. So, there are basically two different portraits of the race. One is wrong.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Looking at the polls
Since some of the polls raise questions on bias, I think the best way to look at them is the trend:

I can't find the history on Rasmussen national tracking, but their generic congressional ballot from it being even in January-February to R+3-4 to now R+10. That sounds like a lot but the trend is definitely moving Republican.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Gallup goes from Obama +4 to Romney +2
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153...

Fox had the same shift. CNN went from Obama +11 to Obama +9. I think our Democratic friends can live with that drop.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
That's a Pre-Santorum pullout poll right?
Nt

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
If the election were tomorrow
I'd say it'd be like Obama 50 Romney 48.  The new polls are encouraging that things could be moving in the right direction.  I don't think they are exactly there yet.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
Gallup has Romney up 6% with Independents, CNN has Obama up 5%. Cnn has Obama at 11% with the GOP, Gallup has him at 6%.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
OK, I'll Call "Bull" on CNN Then
While it's theoretically possible that Obama could win Indies (though I seriously doubt it'd be by 5% even if that happens), there is no way that Obama will pull >10% of Republicans. That just won't happen.

I call B.S.  


[ Parent ]
Even more suspicious
is the fact they have Obama winning 14% of self-described tea-party supporters. That is about the biggest load of bullcrap I have ever seen in a poll.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Effects of a tiny sample.


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Yes
That screams BS polling.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
CNN/Opinion Research has bad
polls every single time.

[ Parent ]
PA-17: Cartwright flipflops on Obamacare
http://www.politicspa.com/cart...

Apparently he used to oppose it from the left, or the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.

28, Republican, PA-6


Cartwright
What a freaking phony. I prefer Holden for a multitude of reasons (though I prefer whomever Republicans nominate to Holden) but even if they held all of the same positions, I'd prefer Holden being in Congress because Cartwright just seems like the ultimate slimy trial lawyer/an absolute hack. He's just awful.

[ Parent ]
Cartwright
Is it just me, or does this guy seem like the real-life Lionel Hutz?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Cartwright and Hutz
YES. Holy cow, you nailed down everything there is to know about Cartwright in one sentence.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Cartwright is Hutz come to life.  I have met my fair share of personal injury attorneys in my short career, but few match Cartwright in his comical nature.  

If he wins this seat, expect him to receive a high profile primary and general challenger next time.  The machine will run someone from Luzerne or Lackawanna and that will be the end of it.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
PA-17: Cartwright and Lionel Hutz
For those who don't get it, here's a hilarious and classic clip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

[ Parent ]
Yes
That probably insults Hutz.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Would republicans have a shot
in a general if Cartwright wins the primary?

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Certainly not this year, with our candidate
I believe it may be possible with a good candidate in a perfect storm. The district is the same by PVI as the one Barletta now holds, but as we all know by now PVI is often worth bupkis in Pennsylvania.

[ Parent ]
Agree completely
Nobody thought Holden would even have a serious primary challenger let alone potentially lose the primary.  Cummings is about as bad of a joke as Cartwright.  

Basically you need someone from Luzerne or Lackawanna counties for us to have a chance here.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
PA-12: Sestak backs Altmire
http://www.politicspa.com/sest...

Nobody cares other than Sestak is sticking it to the machine one more time.  I know die hard Democrats who will vote straight ticket Democrat, but refuse to vote for Sestak under any circumstance now.

28, Republican, PA-6


California
In this race, Critz was trying to get Altmire knocked off the ballot. When we had the L.A. county candidate presentations last month Buck McKeon's opponents didn't complete the correct procedures to talk to the members and be considered for the endorsement. McKeon asked the chair to wave the rule and allow his opponents to speak. They did so, although McKeon still got the endorsement.

I read a recent interview with Adam Schiff, saying that he welcomed all his opponents into the race, looked forward to debates, and to providing the voters with a choice of who they wanted.

You can say that both congressmen can be magnanimous since they aren't going to lose, but it does feel like a breath of fresh air to welcome competition.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Shortest candidacy ever?
Ruben Dario Vargas drops out of NY-13 less than 24 hours after entering the race. http://www.politicker.com/2012...

R - MD-7

Paul / Clinton Parallels
Ron Paul recently endorsed Thomas Massie in KY-04, who volunteered on Rand Paul's campaign back in 2009 before it was big. Before that it was Paul endorser Kurt Bills in Minnesota. Kind of like Bill Clinton wading into primaries as a reward. Now we wait for the Carl Wimmer endorsement if they do it.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

changes for California redistricting
Bill proposes changes for California's new redistricting process

Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

Sadly, they aren't the changes IJB requested.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


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