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Afternoon Roundup for April 16, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 17:39:27 PM EDT


Veepstakes: Beth Myers, not Ed Gillespie, will head up Romney's VP search, which began with a round of talks this weekend. Myers is one of Romney's closest confidants, going back to his days as governor, and is an intriguing pick, as she's not as familiar to the party elites as someone like Gillespie would be. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio declared himself out once again.

Obama: Priorities USA, the primary Obama SuperPAC, is up on TV in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia with an ad that blasts Romney for being rich. NWOTSOTB, but it's in response to a $1.7M Crossroads salvo.

IN-Sen: Richard Mourdock has scored another endorsement that will help him pick up money from national conservatives: William Buckley's own National Review. Mourdock, who had an impressive $875K quarter, has dusted up Dick Lugar on 2nd Amendment and residency issues and now looks favored to oust the Senator.

WI-Gov: The best news of the day is PPP's Wisconsin poll (commissioned by the Daily Kos), which finds Scott Walker at 50% against all opponents and leading by 5-12 points, with Tom Barrett coming closest. Walker has near-universal support from Republicans, and has benefited from PPP's switch to a likely voter screen, as their last RV poll showed Barrett and Falk with small leads. Barrett leads the Democratic primary by 14 over Falk, with chaos-minded Republcians preferring Doug LaFollette.

AZ-08: Jesse Kelly (R) leads Ron Barber (D), 49-45, in a new poll from National Research Inc. NRI is a Republican firm, but it's unclear who, if anyone, commissioned this poll. Barber is tied with Air Force vet Martha McSally, and has small leads over Don Sitton and Frank Antenori. The poll doesn't have numbers for tomorrow's GOP primary, in which Kelly appears to be favored.

PA-04: This is the only real contest aside from the Senate primary for the GOP in PA next week, and it looks like anyone's game. A York Dispatch poll with a small sample size has Chris Reilly at 18%, Scott Perry at 13%, and everyone else in single digits with 57% undecided.

PA-12: Joe Sestak, who ran well in the west in 2010, just endorsed Jason Altmire, who seems to have lost every other major endorsement (Bill Clinton, most notably and recently) to Mark Critz.  

BostonPatriot :: Afternoon Roundup for April 16, 2012
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Veepstakes
Myers likely comes to the table with fewer biases and a more open mind, but she will likely also suffer from a lack of informatory contacts for the purposes of getting. Such are the advantages and disadvantages of an outsider (relatively speaking).

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

A thrid poll with an Obama lead:
Rueters/Ipsos has Obama up 4, so we have three recent polls with a Obama lead and three recent polls with a Romney lead per the previous thread.

Link

Either way, the race has undeniably tightened.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


That seems realistic
The 3 polls with a small Romney lead and Obama up by 4 seem realistic. Obama up by 9 does not.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
actually still only 2
ABC-wash post poll is from before santorum dropped out.  

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
still showing Romney momentum
they had Obama +11 a momnth ago

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Democrats won't
have the advantage of having college students vote since the recall is in June, over a month after classes end. That will cost them at least 1-3 points which could be a tie breaker if it's close.

Walker/Martinez 2016

But let's be honest
Prosser is no Walker, but if Democrats couldn't even gin up enough support back in April during the height of the protests, how do they expect to do it now? Walker has only gotten more popular, and there's too many factors working against the Democrats.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Allen West
1.8 million in Q1.

Donnelly 312k. Yeah, he's not winning.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

25, Male, R, NY-10


Allen West
It is unbelievable that West decided not to get into the senate race. He raises more money than most senate incumbents, is beloved by grassroots conservates (so he would probably raise more in a senate race), and clearly seeks more attention from the media than most.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I think that he likes the House.
Also, he may be friends with Connie Mack.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
West
I've heard from a very credible source that as of as late as this July/August (when I was in my second stint of the summer on the Hill), West was 100% unshakably certain that he would have a completely winnable seat to run in even after FDF was on everyone's mind. I also hear that he was told by many to run for Senate but thought he'd have a perfectly safe House seat to run for.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Well...
Then I imagine he probably felt a senate run would be too tough for him because most people in his position (where the status of his seat was up in the air; raising a lot of money; national name id) would probably go for it - a statewide campaign that would probably be a tossup.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
West actually ran ahead
of Scott and Rubio in much of FL22 in 2010.  When I looked at Broward and Palm Beach results precinct by precinct he was the top vote getting except for walkover races.  

He ran ahead of other statewide office holders and some legislative candidates.  

Some of our D friends like to think he is a weak candidate but in 2010 he ran ahead of the ticket.

In the few AA precincts in FL22, clearly AA as Scott got 8% or less in them, West actually doubled the GOP vote. 10 or 12% of the AA vote is not alot but its better then 5 or 6%.

I really think West could  just breeze through FL18 in 2012.


[ Parent ]
I think Klein was the weak candidate
He ran a poor campaign in 2010, and did pretty badly in 2008 as well.

Nobody as outspoken as West overperforms.  I'd ask you to find me an example.

Steve King doesn't.
Bachmann doesn't.
Weiner might've.
Grayson didn't.
Paul Broun doesn't.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Klein
Overperformed Obama by 4 points as a freshman. Not bad on second thought.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Kucinich and Stark
both generally overperform.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Steve King doesn't?
He outperformed John McCain by 7 points in his district in 2008.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
overperforming John McCain isn't the baseline
it's overperforming the PVI.  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
King does overperform PVI a bit
It's an R+9 district and King has always won more than 59% of the vote except in 2006, when he had 59 on the number. He also overperformed Bush by 3 in 2004. Of course, King has never been seriously challenged so those numbers may very well have been lower if Democrats had ran well funded candidates.

[ Parent ]
58%
He got at least 58% in every county in his district in 2010.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Wasserman Schultz
70% in 2004, 77% in 2008.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
was she outspoken before being dnc chair?


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yes, but she didn't have nearly as many tv appearances.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Here's the link to
Broward county election results for 2010

http://www.browardsoe.org/GetD...

Allen West did better then in precinct after precinct then Scott and Biondi who both won statewide.  

I just link results.  You can say West type candidates  never overperform but there you have it.

I think the idea that folks, on the left, like to repeat the same thing over and over about West.  After awhile they mistake their views for the truth.  I might add that if King had underperform in his seat in 2008 he would be an ex congressman now.

Klein beat a gazillion year incumbent in 2006. Klein ran ahead of Obama in his seat in 2008.  Yet  2010 Allen West ran ahead of Scott, Biondi and Rubio in this seat. Yet West types always run behind other types of candidates.  


[ Parent ]
It's Bondi.
At first, I thought that you had written 'Blondi,' which would have been a hilarious Freudian slip,

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
The infamous poor campaign excuse...
We get it. All 54 incumbents who lost in 2010 ran AWFUL campaigns. All of them, from Melissa Bean to Dan Maffei to Phil Hare to Ron Klein.

If you beat Pam Bondi, who was running against a nobody and is pretty well liked, in every single precinct, that's a pretty big freaking deal, my friend.


[ Parent ]
for the record, my top 5 awful campaigns for 2010
1. Melissa Bean
2. Jim Oberstar
3. Solomon Ortiz
4. Alan Grayson

Those four are tough to dispute; they are in no particular order

However, in 2008, Ron Klein was one of the two or three worst Dem incumbents (as was Steve Kagen).  That shows either real West strength or Klein weakness.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Um...
How in the world did he think that was possible? Someone needs to introduce this dude to DRA. There is no way to draw even a senate district in Palm Beach/Broward that is R+, let alone "winnable" R, let alone a congressional district that is "winnable" R. He definitely should have run for senate.  

[ Parent ]
Ego, my friend
Most politicians think that they can somehow win whatever race they decide to run in... especially freshman Congressmen who haven't been through a redistricting cycle.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
couple of things...
First, this doesn't match with your statement that he was 100% sure he'd have a seat he could win, but now he doesn't think that.  If he thought "I can somehow win whatever race I decide to run in," then his ego should still tell him that, and redistricting would have nothing to do with it.

Also, just a small piece of advice because I know you have a desire to become a politician.  You should be a little more discreet about some of the info you post on here if you want people on the Hill to keep telling you things and/or not IDing you as someone to avoid.  Posting stuff like "No one in DC thought Santorum was smart when he was in the Senate." will likely not earn you friends even if it's true.  Especially since you are open about who you worked for.  Don't give anyone a reason to not like you or trust you.  I know you are still young, but if you want to play with the big boys (which you are capable of doing), you can't use your youth as an excuse at the same time.  As you said, a lot of influential people are reading this site, so why would you want to give anyone a reason to think you'll post what they say on here?  

I hope the mods don't have a problem with this post, because we have a lot of smart, young pundits on here and I don't want to see them burn bridges without even knowing what they are doing.  


[ Parent ]
West
What was his burn rate though?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
PA-07 Tea Leaves
So, I'm going to be visiting NYC by myself from Thursday until Saturday morning and then am taking a train down to the new PA-07 from Saturday afternoon until Monday evening. I wanted to drop by Meehan headquarters on the SEPTA train before I got to my final destination in PA-07. Well, it appears that there isn't even a Meehan headquarters yet; there's just a P.O. Box. If that doesn't tell you know on how bad of a candidate George Badey is and how much Meehan is trouncing him by in internals, I don't know what would.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

Meehan headquarters
He technically has a headquarters at the Upper Darby GOP headquarters on Township Line Road.  He is not like Jim Gerlach who has a permanent campaign office.  I drive by Gerlach's office at least twice a week in Chester Springs.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Location
Isn't it next to Maggie O'Neill's Pub and J.B. Dawson's?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen: New Bob Kerrey ad
A positive bio spot about his military experience said he "didn't flinch" as a soldier and won't "flinch to tell you the truth" as a Senator:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Frankly I very much dislike these ads that have "man on the street types" talking about the candidates, the most recent one I can remember that I liked was the one Carter did against Reagan which should say volumes.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


FL-Sen: Atwater Looking, Big wigs pushing
http://miamiherald.typepad.com...

I was hoping he'd run before Mack entered. He's impressive, but I'm always wary of these white night candidacies. Atwater is tested though.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


National Polls
PPP should have one out this week. Predictions? I bet they have Obama up by a few, say 47-44.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Eh, I'll go with...
Obama - 46%
Romney - 45%

Obama (job approval) - 46/49
Romney (favorability) - 40/49

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Well, then, you got to add a few points to Obama....


[ Parent ]
Depends
If they go registered or likely voter.  Anything short of the latter is not really even newsworthy after their latest poll.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
They won't
They only do it after Labor Day.

And it might be interesting to know if Romney's winning or losing registered voters... The last three registered voters polls have Obama +4, +9, and Romney +2.  


[ Parent ]
Obama up 15
Sestuna gets his/her landslide narrative. ;-)  

[ Parent ]
Her. :-)


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
In-Gov:
Mike Pence: $1.8M raised, $4.9M COH; John Gregg: $595K raised, $1.5M COH.

Link

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


NV-Sen: Berkley edges Heller
Berkley: $1.4M raised, $4.4M COH; Heller: $1.1M raised, $4.3M COH.

Link

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


This is gonna be a tight one.
Heller is going to kill in Washoe County and the Empty counties, but Berkley could overperform a bit in Clarke County.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
IF Heller is "going to kill in Washoe County"
Then, he will win the senate race quite easily. Obama overperformed in Clarke Co. and was essentially 50-50 in Washoe Co and won the state by 12 points. I doubt Clarke Co. is going to be going to Berkley at Obama 2008 levels, so if she gets killed in Washoe Co. (say by 10 points) than this is Heller's seat to lose.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Heller has represented Washoe County for a while.
Berkley has done the same for part of Clarke County. I'm assuming that Heller overperforms more than Berkley.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
No "e" in NV's "Clark County"
It looks like the only "Clarke counties" are in the South.  

[ Parent ]
Oops
The other issue is that everyone I know with that as their first name or surname has the 'e.'

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Obama got 55% in Washoe
Amodei won it by 9, Heller by more.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
You're right
I was thinking of the current 2nd cd.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
WI-Sen: Fitzgerald raised $25K.
Does anyone doubt now that he's solely in the race to help Thompson secure the nomination?

Link

A laughable $74K COH.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


An absolute maybe


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
If that's true, then
Fitzgerald is probably getting promised something big as a reward, because he is giving up being Speaker of the Assembly for this run.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I suggested as much
a few months ago.  I am virtually certain thats whats going on.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Eric Hovde, the other Thompson alternative?
He seems like he is trying to run a campaign similar to Johnson's, but his website has very few specifics, so it is hard to gage how conservative he is.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
What does everyone think
about the Priorities USA add buy? I don't really see attacking Mitt Romney's success as a winning strategy in the swing states. I can't think that many moderates despise people who are successful.  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



it all depends on how it's framed
if it's "we hate rich people," it's a bad ad.
if it's "the wealthy, such as Mitt Romney, should pay more taxes," it's a good ad.

I haven't seen the ad.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Isn't that the same thing?
Mitt Romney is a bad guy because he doesn't pay taxes. Don't vote for him.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
No
One is demonizing his success purely on the grounds that being a millionaire is bad, the other is saying the wealthy should pay higher taxes

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I fail to see the distinction
"The wealthy don't pay their fair share." Bad people don't pay their fair share. If they were good people they'd agree to raise their taxes.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
To be fair,
your explanation would necessitate Obama calling himself bad.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Only if he's not willing to pay his fair share
And he tells us in every speech he is. The bad people are those that selfishly want to deprive us from investing in education and clean energy so they can have tax breaks they don't need and didn't ask for.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
He can pay his 'fair share.'
The IRS takes checks. Of course, he naturally doesn't want to pay more than he has to pay. If everyone at his income level, including himself, gets a tax hike, then that's fine, because it will add to his legacy. Meanwhile, he'll just pay the minimum required.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
You've never seen the distinction
but I can guarantee swing voters do, which is why taxing millionaires polls well and demonizing rich people for their success doesn't.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Taxing the other guy always does well
The idea that you can finance everything I want and you can do it by having the other guy pay for it is very appealing to a lot of people. People would support taxing the poor if they could be convinced that it'd pay for everything they wanted.

But he's not asking you to increase taxes on the other guy. He's asking you to increase taxes on the other guy because he selfishly isn't paying his fair share.

Of course, our top 1% pays a greater share of the taxes than the top 1% does in Western Europe. Western Europe gets a lot of their taxes from a large VAT that everyone pays. Europeans have been convinced that they can get what they want only by paying for it themselves.

Even though 43-47% of Americans pay no Federal income tax, they are convinced they pay all of it and rich people pay $0 in taxes. The Democrats know this and are trying to capitalize on it. Rich people pay an effective tax rate more than double what middle class people pay, but if you ask people they'll tell that President Obama has confirmed rich people don't even pay as much as their secretary.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
okay, explain that to a swing voter


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
If you could, then President Obama wouldn't use it as a campaign strategy
People can't be convinced that the middle class doesn't pay all the taxes and that rich people pay nothing. While Democrats have never said that, their rhetoric leads people to conclude that. When someone continually pushes a message that "confirms" what you want to believe, you aren't going to be convinced the opposite.

So no, I can't sell that to a swing voter. They wouldn't believe it.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I linked it
Is the video not working? I can find another link if it doesn't work on some browsers.

[ Parent ]
no, i was just lazy.


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Why didn't the WISC
Take up the voter ID appeal?
Must be a reason, because they are a branch of the GOP.

http://www.duluthnewstribune.c...

25, Male, R, NY-10


LOL! Actual Falk campaign statement!:
Wisconsin for Falk, the pro-Falk independent expenditures group, sent out an email to supporters making a similar argument: "Did you catch the news last week that Kathleen Falk and Tom Barrett are equally competitive against Scott Walker in a general election matchup?"

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosieg...

25, Male, R, NY-10


How to make CA go Red
Slap an Obama sticker or two on your car and cut everyone on the 5, 405, and 605 off.

Instant Romney votes. (Got cut off by an Obama car recently..)

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


lol I think giving them the finger
At the same time would deff seal the deal.

Not that I would do it of course.... Haha  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


[ Parent ]
Obama and traffic
Several times the President has come to LA solely for the reason to create traffic jams and make sure people couldn't get to meetings/evening plans/home. (Wasn't that his purpose?) Everyone I know who grumbled about this still said they'd vote for him.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Lol, I doubt Los Angeles needs Obama's help to do that.
Los Angeles creates traffic jams just fine on its own.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
Sure, but not like this
Usually traffic moves. The secret service and the cops shut off Wilshire Blvd for two hours. No cars were allowed to cross the street. If you were on the wrong side of Wilshire at the wrong time, you were stuck.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I dispute that.
The traffic does not move. ;)

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
Obama Drivers in CA Are Notoriously Bad
I've found a high, high correlation between Obama bumpers and bad drivers.

Interestingly, I've found Obama bumpers in CA segregate into 2 camps: 1) those driving old model virtual 'junker' cars, and 2) richie-rich types driving things like BMWs, etc. The drivers in the second camp are only slightly better than those in the first camp.

FTR, I rarely see any 'W' stickers out here any more - maybe once every 2-3 weeks. Needless to say, with maybe only one exception I can think of, they're fine drivers...  


[ Parent ]
Doubt it has any correlation in reality
Your polling sample is probably less than .001%.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
You're Confusing Two Things, I Feel!!
I'm not saying all bad drivers are Obama voters - I'm saying all drivers with Obama bumpers are bad drivers!!   ;p  

[ Parent ]
We only have the first kind here.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Hasn't worked so far
The Bay area is full of Priuses with Obama stickers cutting people off, and Obama still got like 75% of the vote here.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Mark Pryor
Voted against the Buffett rule today.

Someone smells an election in a likely 35% Obama state.

I'm due for a lecture by Grady on AR's supposed "populism"...  

25, Male, R, NY-10


You won't be getting a lecture from me
Pryor's obviously not interested in doing the extra work of contrast between the Republican tax proposals and the Democratic tax proposals - fact is, most of Arkansas is poor. Actually, Pryor just wants to stay on the side of the wealthy so he gets money for his campaign in 2014.

And FWIW, I'd love it if Obama got to 35% of the vote in Arkansas. I don't think that's going to happen.


[ Parent ]
Why would you love it?
We are really in need of a comprehensive AR poll by PPP.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
He'll prob be over 35%
around 37 or so. Those are Oklahoma numbers.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Last poll I saw
said 32

[ Parent ]
Ouch
Wait. Wouldn't he be losing Crittenden County by that point? I just can't fathom a Democrat losing that county (for 'county,' read 'hell-hole')

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
No
He's narrowly winning there because of African Americans.

Compared to 2008, I bet he loses Desha.  


[ Parent ]
This is a little off topic but
I saw this happen and it was hilarious!!

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bob...

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



Ann Romney Controversy Good for $$$
Donald Trump's birthday party for Ann raised $600k- double the original $300k estimate.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50...

Since Trump is helping Romney raise $$, I wonder if he will donate anything to Restore Our Future or Crossroads?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Donald Trump spend his own money?
James, You're Fired!

[ Parent ]
Trump loathes Karl Rove (and most of the Bush '43 crowd)
So, I definitely wouldn't count on a mere Trump penny going to Crossroads.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
LCV spending 230k against Holden
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

I guess, they were out of the news for too long.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Christie popular at 51/35 approval in another poll
NRCC raised 9.3 million in March, 27.1 million on hand
Record good standing even without Crossroads.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/n...

25, Male, R, NY-10


FL-6
State Rep. Costello joins GOP primary race.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/f...

25, Male, R, NY-10


Is the 2017 Glendale, Ca mayoral race too down in the weeds for RRH?
Because Kim Kardashian is talking about running for Mayor of this LA suburb:
http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesi...
Hey if people can take Donald Trump's lame publicity stunt exploritory campaigns seriously why not Kim Kardashian. After all she's about as credible candidate as The Donald. Although maybe we shouldnt laugh. WI did elect a reality TV star to the US Congress....

Even worse
Minnesota elected Jessie "the Mind is a Terrible Thing to Waste" Ventura.  Yes that is some decade old Limbaugh for you.

28, Republican, PA-6

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