| Florida: PPP's latest poll has Obama's approvals at 51/45 and he sports a similar 50-45 lead over Romney. Jeb Bush remains the most popular politician in Florida (50/42), and his presence on the ticket would boost Romney slightly, while Marco Rubio would not.
Michigan: I'm generally not one to believe that Romney's ties to Michigan will make the state more competitive this fall, but Politico's Charlie Mahtesian (who has replaced David Catanese) makes an interesting point: Romney has outraised Obama in Michigan, despite the President's big cash edge nationwide.
TX-Sen: David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz both made statewide TV buys (which is quite the expensive task in Texas) that focus on Cruz's background. Dewhurst's ad is hard negative, calling Cruz a trial lawyer who has helped Chinese companies kill American jobs. Cruz focuses on a case he won, against the ACLU, which allowed a cross-shaped memorial to veterans to stand.
PA-17: Might Tim Holden, lord of Schuylkill, actually lose? The League of Conservation Voters is going up on TV with a $230K buy tying Holden to Bush's energy policies. Meanwhile, Roll Call spent the weekend on the ground in PA-17, and now considers Holden the underdog due to his low name rec in Lackawanna and Luzurne. Holden is further hurt by the closed-primary system, as many of his strongest supporters in Schuylkill are Republicans and can't vote for him. He did, however, pick up an endorsement from Scranton's own Bob Casey today.
TN-03: Chuck Fleischmann is another incumbent facing a tough primary, and according to this internal poll from Scottie Mayfield, he's fallen behind. Mayfield leads at 34, with Fleischmann and Weston "Son of Zach" Wamp both at 25. Tennessee is the lone Deep South state not to employ runoffs, so Fleischmann could squeak through if the anti-incumbent vote is divided. This primary is in August.
New Jersey: Chris Christie is still in good shape, with Monmouth giving him 51-35 approvals. Notably, he now breaks even with public employee households, after being down 32-61 with them last winter. It may not seem it, but Christie's re-election is only 18 months away.