| POTUS
National Polling: It was CBS/NYT's turn to chime in today, and they also found movement towards Romney, who ties Obama at 46 after trailing by 3 last month. There is a 12-point gender gap, but Romney actually leads with married women. Could he close the gender gap by focusing on "soccer moms" and senior women?
Obama: POTUS broke out the weapons of class war yesterday in Ohio, conspicuously saying that he "wasn't born with a silver spoon" and that "someone gave me an education." (Isn't that the fundamental difference between the parties? Republicans: "I earned it." Dems: "Someone owes it to me.") Regardless, all signs point to Ohio being the state Obama thinks he needs more than any other this fall.
Perry: Oh dear: Rick Perry is not only considering running for a fourth full term as Governor in 2014, he's also looking at another Presidential bid in 2016. He promises that he'd "be way in before the summer of 2016. 2015, even." Um, Rick, if you're not in by the end of 2015, you aren't running.
Veepstakes: CNN has a poll of Republicans on their preferred VP pick, and the surprise winner is Condoleezza Rice at 26%, with Santorum a close second. But don't take this poll too seriously, as Rice and Santorum are propelled to the front of the pack by account of their high name recognition. Rice was uninterested in the position in 2008 and has kept a low profile since leaving the State Department.
Dogs: Yes, the media is that bored. Although I suppose one tangible benefit to the Obama-ate-dog-meat story is that perhaps Seamus will finally go away.
McDonnell: I wasn't sure where to file this one, but Bob McDonnell is taking the interesting move of running positive TV ads across Virginia. Unlike Rick Scott, who ran such ads earlier this year, McDonnell can't run for re-election (nor is he facing any sort of recall threat). A move to restore confidence in his government? Or perhaps an attempt to build VP chatter?
Senate
Indiana: Richard Mourdock has a 42-41 lead in an internal poll from McLaughlin that he released yesterday. The trendlines on the poll are from January, when Mourdock trailed Dick Lugar by 12. Looking at the crosstabs, the most significant change is in Lugar's favorables, which have suffered over the course of the campaign.
Massachusetts: Cute: Elizabeth Warren, champion of the people, believes the wealthy should pay more taxes and feel good about it. Yet when given the opportunity to pay more taxes herself (Warren is worth at least $18M), she apparently declined. (Yes, the MA tax forms asks you if you would like to pay at an optional higher rate. They also ask you if you are deceased.) Only 773 people in the state opted for the higher rate this year, and all appear to be low-income, which suggests that Buffett Rule-backing millionaire John Kerry did not do so either.
More MA: Dirty money? Yankees President Randy Levine, far from the most popular guy in MA, maxed out to Scott Brown's campaign and the Senator will keep the $2500 donation. (I would have liked to have seen him give it to the Jimmy Fund.) The Red Sox ownership is vocally liberal and will probably respond by maxing out to Warren, although I'd prefer they'd fix the damned bullpen instead.
Ohio: Josh Mandel, who had been very quietly sitting on his sizable war chest, is getting up on the air in a big way: a $580K, two week statewide buy. The ad focuses on Mandel's military service (although it unfortunately does nothing to combat the rumor that Mandel is in fact 19 years old) and will probably be the opening salvo in a summer-long air war with Sherrod Brown.
Pennsylvania: So, are there any real Republicans in this primary?. First, a PAC that appears to support Steve Welch is attacking Tom Smith on his history as a Democrat. The buy is for $35K and is curiously limited to the Johnstown market. In response, Smith hammers Welch for his support of Obama and Sestak. That ad is linked here.
More PA: Smith is also out with an internal poll, showing him at 35% to 16% for Sam Rohrer and 10% for Welch.
House
AZ-08: Ron Barber is up with the first ad of the special, a day after the GOP nominated Jesse Kelly to take him on. The positive 30-second spot is backed by a small-to-medium $40K buy in the Tucson market.
IL-13: The state party will pick our candidate here, and it looks like there are at least six hopefuls: St. Sen. Kyle McCarter, St. Rep. Dan Brady, St. Rep. Mike Tate, Tim Johnson's CoS Jerry Clarke, Shimkus staffer Rodney Davis, and realtor Paul Blumenshine. McCarter has made headlines by alleging that Johnson had a pre-arranged deal to retire after the primary and hand the seat to Clarke.
NC-08: Endangered Rep. Larry Kissell has joined the rapidly shrinking Blue Dog Caucus in an effort to appear more conservative (Kissell had previously been one of the very few white Southern non-Blue Dog Democrats.) This feels similar to when I signed up for MySpace in 2009.
PA-17: A few days after the LCV made a big buy against him, Tim Holden is getting some third-party help from Center Forward, which supports ConservaDems. The buy is for $100K and is straight negative on Matt Cartwright. On the other side, the CPA is going on the air with a $70K buy against Holden. That positive/negative ad is linked here.
PA-18: Pennsylvania's Republican Tim, on the other hand, no longer has to worry about the CPA. Despite pledging to spend $200K against Tim Murphy, the anti-incumbent group is pulling out of the 18th, as the CFG did last week. Both PACs cited the weaknesses of Evan Feinberg, who never got traction in his bid to unseat Murphy from the right. |
