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Morning Roundup for April 19th, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:30:00 AM EDT


POTUS

National Polling: It was CBS/NYT's turn to chime in today, and they also found movement towards Romney, who ties Obama at 46 after trailing by 3 last month. There is a 12-point gender gap, but Romney actually leads with married women. Could he close the gender gap by focusing on "soccer moms" and senior women?

Obama: POTUS broke out the weapons of class war yesterday in Ohio, conspicuously saying that he "wasn't born with a silver spoon" and that "someone gave me an education." (Isn't that the fundamental difference between the parties? Republicans: "I earned it." Dems: "Someone owes it to me.") Regardless, all signs point to Ohio being the state Obama thinks he needs more than any other this fall.

Perry: Oh dear: Rick Perry is not only considering running for a fourth full term as Governor in 2014, he's also looking at another Presidential bid in 2016. He promises that he'd "be way in before the summer of 2016. 2015, even." Um, Rick, if you're not in by the end of 2015, you aren't running.

Veepstakes: CNN has a poll of Republicans on their preferred VP pick, and the surprise winner is Condoleezza Rice at 26%, with Santorum a close second. But don't take this poll too seriously, as Rice and Santorum are propelled to the front of the pack by account of their high name recognition. Rice was uninterested in the position in 2008 and has kept a low profile since leaving the State Department.

Dogs: Yes, the media is that bored. Although I suppose one tangible benefit to the Obama-ate-dog-meat story is that perhaps Seamus will finally go away.  

McDonnell: I wasn't sure where to file this one, but Bob McDonnell is taking the interesting move of running positive TV ads across Virginia. Unlike Rick Scott, who ran such ads earlier this year, McDonnell can't run for re-election (nor is he facing any sort of recall threat). A move to restore confidence in his government? Or perhaps an attempt to build VP chatter?

Senate

Indiana: Richard Mourdock has a 42-41 lead in an internal poll from McLaughlin that he released yesterday. The trendlines on the poll are from January, when Mourdock trailed Dick Lugar by 12. Looking at the crosstabs, the most significant change is in Lugar's favorables, which have suffered over the course of the campaign.

Massachusetts: Cute: Elizabeth Warren, champion of the people, believes the wealthy should pay more taxes and feel good about it. Yet when given the opportunity to pay more taxes herself (Warren is worth at least $18M), she apparently declined. (Yes, the MA tax forms asks you if you would like to pay at an optional higher rate. They also ask you if you are deceased.) Only 773 people in the state opted for the higher rate this year, and all appear to be low-income, which suggests that Buffett Rule-backing millionaire John Kerry did not do so either.

More MA: Dirty money? Yankees President Randy Levine, far from the most popular guy in MA, maxed out to Scott Brown's campaign and the Senator will keep the $2500 donation. (I would have liked to have seen him give it to the Jimmy Fund.) The Red Sox ownership is vocally liberal and will probably respond by maxing out to Warren, although I'd prefer they'd fix the damned bullpen instead.

Ohio: Josh Mandel, who had been very quietly sitting on his sizable war chest, is getting up on the air in a big way: a $580K, two week statewide buy. The ad focuses on Mandel's military service (although it unfortunately does nothing to combat the rumor that Mandel is in fact 19 years old) and will probably be the opening salvo in a summer-long air war with Sherrod Brown.

Pennsylvania: So, are there any real Republicans in this primary?. First, a PAC that appears to support Steve Welch is attacking Tom Smith on his history as a Democrat. The buy is for $35K and is curiously limited to the Johnstown market. In response, Smith hammers Welch for his support of Obama and Sestak. That ad is linked here.

More PA: Smith is also out with an internal poll, showing him at 35% to 16% for Sam Rohrer and 10% for Welch.

House

AZ-08: Ron Barber is up with the first ad of the special, a day after the GOP nominated Jesse Kelly to take him on. The positive 30-second spot is backed by a small-to-medium $40K buy in the Tucson market.

IL-13: The state party will pick our candidate here, and it looks like there are at least six hopefuls: St. Sen. Kyle McCarter, St. Rep. Dan Brady, St. Rep. Mike Tate, Tim Johnson's CoS Jerry Clarke, Shimkus staffer Rodney Davis, and realtor Paul Blumenshine. McCarter has made headlines by alleging that Johnson had a pre-arranged deal to retire after the primary and hand the seat to Clarke.

NC-08: Endangered Rep. Larry Kissell has joined the rapidly shrinking Blue Dog Caucus in an effort to appear more conservative (Kissell had previously been one of the very few white Southern non-Blue Dog Democrats.) This feels similar to when I signed up for MySpace in 2009.

PA-17: A few days after the LCV made a big buy against him, Tim Holden is getting some third-party help from Center Forward, which supports ConservaDems. The buy is for $100K and is straight negative on Matt Cartwright. On the other side, the CPA is going on the air with a $70K buy against Holden. That positive/negative ad is linked here.

PA-18: Pennsylvania's Republican Tim, on the other hand, no longer has to worry about the CPA. Despite pledging to spend $200K against Tim Murphy, the anti-incumbent group is pulling out of the 18th, as the CFG did last week. Both PACs cited the weaknesses of Evan Feinberg, who never got traction in his bid to unseat Murphy from the right.

BostonPatriot :: Morning Roundup for April 19th, 2012
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PA-Senate
I am going with Rohrer.  Smith and Welch have turned me off with the pot calling the kettle black BS.  Smith actually donated to Democrats last cycle while Welch at least was playing Republican.

28, Republican, PA-6

Rohrer
I will admit he's the one who I'd most like to see actually in the Senate. He got a seriously impressive 80% of the vote in Berks in 2010-Gov so those who know him must really like him. My concern is if he'd have the resources to truly compete statewide as his fundraising has been basically nonexistent.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I think we can take PA18
off the table for both the primary and GE.

55% McCain seat.  The DCCC listed a big ad buy for PA18 (same market as PA12) but I suspect they spent pennies on this seat.  Whatever people think of Tim Murphy he is not lazy.  He has worked the seat hard over the last ten years.  


Agree
I was kind of surprised by the size of the ad buy in the Pittsburgh/Johnstown markets.  I could see them spending a million and a half on the PA-12 race though.

The interesting thing about the ad buy info was the seats the Democrats are essentially not contesting.  The DKE myth that PA-16 was in play is myth at least from the DCCC's perspective as no time was reserved in the Harrisburg market.  Seeing no time was reserved in the Harrisburg market which covers all of Lancaster and Lebanon counties and part of Berks as well, I am not sure PA-6 or PA-15 are even being contested.  Arguably PA-7 might be off the table as well as a part of that seat is in the Harrisburg market.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
OH-Sen: Phew, finally! You raise the cash for a reason.

AZ-08: Kelly needs to match Nd exceed, pronto.

IL-13: I can very easily believe that this seat was handed off.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Natl-Pres: Quinnipiac has Obama up 46-42 (up from 46-44 in February)
Poll is of 2500 registered voters: 40D-39R-20I.

Link

Romney's faves are underwater but manageable at 33-38 (this is improved from being 35-43 last month).

Obama's approval rating is 47-48 (up from 45-49 the previous month)

Racial, gender: Obama leads 94-3 among blacks, 64-24 among hispanics, and 49-39 among women. Romney leads 52-36 with whites and 46-43 with men.

Democrats lead 40-39 on the generic ballot (up from being down 36-40 in their february poll).

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


More data is good.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac Undecideds
Seems like a large number of undecideds.  Undecideds are more likely to be non-college whites, Born-again evanglicals, and white women.  They would appear to lean toward Romney.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Yeah
First of all, Q is the only poll to show movement towards Obama, so...

Second of all, the undecideds really aren't undecided. They just hate Romney and don't want to admit they'll vote for him.  


[ Parent ]
IN-Sen
I think I was in that poll.  As I said on Tuesday night:

"I just got called on the GOP primary asking my candidate preference.  I was then told negative statements about Lugar and again asked my candidate preference.  Finally, I was told negative statements about Mourdock and once again asked for my candidate preference."

I thought it was Donnelly poll since I got negatives from both, but perhaps it was a Mourdock poll.  I just wonder which number he is reporting, since they asked my voting preference three times.

33, R, IN-09


You are going to vote
In the GOP primary for Lugar, or go for Mourdock because he's supposedly better for Ds?  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Lugar
I'm pretty risk adverse here; I don't want to risk a Donnelly win.  A 100% chance of a Lugar win is better than a 75% chance of a Mourdock win.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Lugar v. Mourdock
My Lake County, IN-based (Crown Point area) dentist uncle is conservative on every political issue I can think of but he's a Lugar donor and a Lugar supporter because he wants to keep the seat for sure. He figures we can get someone better than Lugar in six years but that Lugar is not that bad. You're not alone in that sentiment.

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen
I figured that was the sentiment for many Lugar voters; I doubt there are many passionate Lugar supporters.  In six years, there could be a battle between Rokita, Stutzman and Todd Young for the senate seat.  That primary might happen early if Coats retires in 2016.  There should be some major GOP primary contests over the next few years.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Peters Township, Washington County, Pennsylvania
Ryan,
Peters Township is in Washington County, a very locally Democratic county. Why is Peters Township so red both in state and federal elections? It's as if a suburb of Grand Rapids or a suburb in Waukesha County was just dropped down into metro Pittsburgh.

Typically upper middle class suburb
Peters Twp until very recently was the only true suburban area in Washington County. Most of the county was rural farms and industrial towns before recently. Now there are several areas with suburbanized pockets, which is probably making the county more Republican by itself.

A similar thing was seen in Westmoreland. The areas with suburban growth went Republican first then the rural and now the industrial areas.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Fix The Bullpen
What about the Outfield at this point?  I've heard they are considering trading for Scott Podsednik lol.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

LCL
Please check your email; I responded and believe I can be of help.

RRR
You have been warned about using the threads to send messages to people or to tell them to do something. You seem to have forgot the warning you got before on this behavior.  Please stop doing it.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Ok
Won't happen again. Please delete this then.

[ Parent ]
Just remember
That this is not Facebook, or a "message board." It's a blog about electoral politics and it might be a good idea to ask yourself before you hit post, "Is this comment about elections, or is it something I would be better off asking via facebook, email, etc.?"

[ Parent ]
Green in NY
Greens also running a candidate in the Grimm district. Always good. As in the open Ackerman seat.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

AR-Sen: Pryor to Run for Relection in 2014
As an AR side note
the D running against Congressman Tim Griffin did not file an FEC report for the 1st qtr. He paid the $8K filing fee himself and did not file an FEC report:

http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

Griffin will be coasting this year and if interested he would be a top candidate for this seat in 2014.  I think the other fundraising numbers in this article was discussed here last week.  


[ Parent ]
I don't know which one is better for the GOP
Pryor vs Griffin or Beebe vs Griffin for Senate in 2014.  

[ Parent ]
I'd guess Pryor
Beebe has god-like approvals.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
EIther one will require some work
for Griffin. Neither Pryor nor Beebe are bad politicians (like Blanche Lincoln). I think the best comparison I can make is had Pryor been running in 2010, he probably would have lost but he would have gotten in the mid-40s.

Either way, you don't want Mike Beebe running for any elected office ever again.


[ Parent ]
Didn't Elizabeth Warren vehemently deny she was 1%?
She isn't one of those horrible 1%. She's part of the 99%. She created the Occupy movement. She good.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Here it is
http://hotair.com/archives/201...

I'm pretty sure that with TIAA-CREF being a retirement plan all the money Elizabeth Warren earns in their funds is tax exempt, at least until she actually withdraws it. Of course that's legal and different from Mitt Romney, but she is earning income and that income is tax exempt right now due to a "loophole."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I do not know for
certain but I believe TIAA-CREF received tax deferred and regular contributions. There are limits to individual contributions, based on salary and what not, so even at 400K a year salary its hard to get 8 million at TIAA-CREF.

An S & P fund of 10 million could generate as little as 200K in taxable income (dividends minus fees).  

Warren is not that old.  There are various limits where she could not invest 150K a year in tax deferred plans. So she and her spouse did not accumlate 15 million in retirement plans by putting 50K a year in there.  


[ Parent ]
Yet she opposes raising IRA and retirement contribution limits
for the rest of us. She can become a millionaire by putting her savings in a tax deferred account put the rest of us cant!
Brown should sponsor a bill to increase the amount people can put into IRAs & 401(k) plans and let she if she would oppose it.

[ Parent ]
Actually I just opened the link
It just says  TIAA-CREF mutual fund which can be owned in both taxable and tax deferred accounts.

[ Parent ]
If your comparing against the world
Almost every single American is part of the 1%


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I just love this title.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Good to see we have a Dem bucking his own party! Keep it up sir!  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


NJ-Monmouth Poll
Hits back a bit at the idea (andyroo?) that won't be many Obama/Kyrillos voters.

http://www.politickernj.com/56...


Jobless claims revised up.
http://m.cnbc.com/id/47098817

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

Sad
It seems we are hitting another bump in the recovery, one we can't afford as the recovery hasn't been very robust anyways.

All the news this week seems to be going towards Romney (Not saying he want's more jobless, but obviously the worse the economy the better his chance).

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday!
(apologies if this is a bit late)

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Seconded!


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
To both of you!  I appreciate it.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Crazy stuff
It feels like just a few months ago you changed it to 30. I can't believe we've all been on RRH for about 15 months. I thought I noticed you changed it but I figured "Oh, I probably just thought he changed it and he didn't."

[ Parent ]
Oh, and...
happy birthday. :)

[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday, I'm sorry I didn't notice.
Have a good one, you only get so many.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday from me as well!


[ Parent ]
Thanks Everyone!
:)

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
What Recovery?
I'm working these days and I didn't work at all in 2010. So it's certainly better for me. But the numbers have never indicated we're in a recovery. We need to add 150,000 jobs a month to keep up with the expanding labor force. Of course the labor force isn't expanding, even though there are more adults every month. The labor force has dropped for the most of the time since last summer.

http://www.nidataplus.com/lfeu...

March and April 2011 were excellent months, and May wasn't bad. But June was sluggish, as was most of the rest of the year. February 2012 was very good, but a recovery isn't 1 or 2 or 3 months. This has been all starts and stops. During the Bush administration the number of employed went up by about 1.5 million a year. That's a recovery.    

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I'm Still Underemployed...
...For the second year in a row. And I work in education.

There is NO recovery. Certainly not here in the Progressives' Paradise: California.  


[ Parent ]
Feel free to disagree
I freely admit its not a great or even good recovery, but positive GDP growth and job gains are a recovery to Hundreds of thousands of jobs lost per month and gdp losses.  I'm not arguing its a perfect recovery, but if your position is there is no recovery at all, It's probably not best for me to respond further.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
One Thing I Will Add
Is that my familys position has been greatly enhanced under Obama.  I have a job compared to being unemployed and its a great job that I love and my wife has found full time employment as well, going into 2009 she did not have that.

Also other members of the family have found good jobs or promotions lately.  Of course this is the smallest sample size around.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Small minority
Average income is down 10% or abouts under his presidency.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
in my circle
the opposite is true. My employer is planning massive layoffs.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Treading water
That's not a recovery. Job growth is treading water if it's not enough to significantly outweigh the additional people in the workforce. We've drifted in the last 3 years.

Yes, 2008, 2009, and 2010 were very tough years for me. Things have been better since 2011. But then 1992, 2001, and 2002 were tough years too. Eventually there's going to be a recovery. We've had growth after every recession in the past. It's just a question of why is it taking so long to have one.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Can anyone remember the days
when employees left their current job for higher pay?  Then they sell their house, for a profit, and either move to another city or state or another county.  Or even more to another job within the same city for higher pay.  You might be able to now if you an App programer or designer but other then that forget it.  

That's where we are at now as folks are still losing jobs but there is lower paying work available.  There is entry level work out there for people with certain skill sets.

Public sector layoffs continue-just google teacher layoffs or public employee layoffs. There is still a trend of fewer public employees vis a vis private employment but that also means lower wages and benefits.  


[ Parent ]
same with me
I was an unemployed just college graduate in December 2008, my dad was laid off in November 2008, and my mom, well, doesn't make even close to the income required to support our family.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Random Stat
2010 US House Vote
New Florida 9th Congressional District
Republican 49.47%
Democratic 47.76%

While a good sign, higher Presidential turnout may doom any chances Quinones may have. Of course, we still need Grayson as the Dem Nominee.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


Well, Bill Posey crushed 65-35 districtwide.
That's probably helping that number.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Not so random stats
All statewide Rs other than Scott won the district in 2010.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
MN-leg update
I'll keep it simple: the GOP is royally screwed.  Not that this is surprising or anything.  Southern MN is looking very, very ugly for the GOP.  Hennepin and Dakota aren't looking much better; especially seeing how badly Klobuchar will romp there.

I'd put the GOP ceiling in the Senate at 34 seats.  (34 is needed for a majority).  And that is dependent on winning some very precarious seats because some should-be-GOP seats are held by complete incompetents (not going to name names) and are almost certainly gone.  The state party is in the shitter right now so candidates are on their own.  Unless some incumbents can pull wins out of their ass in 55+ Obama/ 60+ Klobuchar seats with little to no outside support, I think the Senate is gone.  The only bright spot is that the floor for the GOP should be 29 seats after redistricting so the DFL won't have the kind of majority they have had in the recent past; not that that will stop them from doing whatever they want.

I'm less in tune with the House, but from what I've heard that can be kissed away, too.

Seeing how the party cares more about gay marriage and voter ID than putting Right to Work on the ballot, I can't say I'm too upset.  As much as a I love the state, I can't blame any business that picks up and moves operations to the Dakotas; especially with what's coming.  

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


Electorally, you are spot on
But businesses aren't going to pick up and leave. That is simple unfounded paranoia.

Cargill and Medtronic aren't going to say "uh oh, now is the time to pick up and move to Watertown South Dakota. "

In fact, most of the businesses in Minnesota were founded by or run by liberals (say it ain't so!!!). The Pohlads, the Pillsburys, the Daytons (with scion Mark as governor), The Bakkens, etc are all very liberal Democrats. The only exception is  the Cargills and the Carlsons that truly are split down the middle in terms of political allegiances. There are a couple others, like Gene Taylor that is a former Minnesota Republican legislator. But is he gonna move the Timberwolves to Fargo? I think not

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
MN
Sure a lot of the HQ's will remain as well as high tech companies.  That's great for people in finance and biotech.  But manufacturing jobs have been on a steady decline for decades.  Call it "unfounded paranoia", but in the last twenty years Saint Paul has lost the Ford Plant, the Hamm's Brewery, the Schmidt's Brewery, dozens of 3M facilities, etc.  Buckley blasted high taxes multiple times when he was at 3M and abandoned the manufacturing facilities on the eastside.  Cooper at TCF has also constantly complained of the business climate in MN.  Even the headquarters of deeply rooted MN companies aren't immune from moving; see Honeywell.  When Northwest merged with Delta, it couldn't move its operations to Georgia fast enough.  

The people who were working at Northwest, the Ford Plant, the Lockheed Martin plant in Eagan, or the State Farm campus in Woodbury certainly don't see companies picking up and moving as "unfounded paranoia".  

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
And all of this happened under Republican administrations
20 years ago, when all of those companies and facilities were here, the DFL controlled EVERYTHING.

Now, I think it is a nonsequitur to say even compare politics and business like this. The fact is that Minnesota has always had friendly environments for workers. Minnesota has THRIVED and has had incredibly high standards of living for it's citizens. http://os.cqpress.com/StateRan... (I couldn't quickly find the 2011 full rankings, but Minnesota sits at 5, and was at #1 for all of the years BEFORE Pawlenty took over).

Minnesota also largely dodged the recession bullet compared to a lot of places. Currently, Minnesota is in the top 10 when it comes to unemployment rate, and currently has 5.7% unemployment, which is significantly lower than the national average. And it is substantially lower than the "right to work Mecca" of North Carolina.

The Ford plant closed, but that was slated to be closed over a decade ago, and many many plants have been closed across the country as a result of the automotive industry restructuring itself.

And Delta bought out Northwest, it wasn't a merger. Northwest does not exist anymore. It stands to reason that Delta wanted to maintain it's center of operation, even when acquiring other airlines.

And for the record, TCF sucks. I ditched them years ago. The only decent thing they have done is build a stadium at my alma mater

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Cheer up about MN
as from far I am that gloomy.

McCain at 45% carried how many senate seats?  McCain also was Mr. I hate the diary program and was killed by that view in MN & WI rural areas.

National polls suggest that Obama will be  hard pressed to get to his 2008 numbers which means 54% in MN is also unlikely.  I do not equate Klouber's numbers with DFL legislative or congressional numbers.  Using that logic Grassley numbers in Iowa should have brought in every candidate in that state.


[ Parent ]
mcCain overperformed in rural Minneaota
Check it out in DRA. The Den average is higher than Obama'a percentage nearly across the board precinct by precinct in MN-1, MN-7, and MN-8. You are factually wrong about Obama overperforming there.

Where Obama did overachieve is in suburbia. MN-2 Nd MN-3 is where you find Obama overperforming generic D, in some cases by a lot.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Let me more precise
as MN8 is not typical rural area.  In MN1 there was an 8% shift from 2004 results to 2008 results and that's about national average. There was a 9% shift to Obama in MN7. In MN8 there was nearly no Obama shift as he did not play well in suburbs and industrial iron range areas.  Oh he won MN8 but his margin was like Kerry's win.

I see substanial shifts in southeastern rural counties that I would attribute to dairy issues. MN only saw a 5% shift to Obama from Kerry numbers so those 8 & 9% shifts in MN1 and MN7 are IMO somewhat attributable to Corn and Dairy issues that McCain had.  MN is not a big corn state except in parts of southern area but Ethanol and Dairy issues.

So rural parts of MN1 and MN7 shifted to Obama more then the rest of MN.



[ Parent ]
Mandel looks too young
He needs to grow some facial hair because his current look might hurt him.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

That would be funny
But, at this point peach fuzz is probably a goal.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Alright, nothing going on today
lets talk about the French Presidential, the first round is in just three days. Predictions everyone? Who comes in first, Sarkozy, or Hollande?

I foresee something like this:
-Sarkozy 26%
-Hollande 25%
-Mélenchon 20%
-Le Pen 15%
-Bayrou 10%
-Greens 2%
-Others 2%

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


The fact that Melenchon and Le Pen could get 35 percent of the vote in France...
Sort of puts paid to the idea that the U.S. has a hyper-polarized electoral system, no?

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Many things do.


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Sark
Sarkozy 28%
Hollande 27%
Le Pen 16%
Melenchon 15%
Bayrou 9%
Others 5%

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Agree
I think Sarko wins the first round, but loses by 10 points in the runoff.  The high numbers splintered in several direction make me wonder if we are entering a new period of radicalism in France.

Speaking of foreign elections, it appears the longest serving government in North America (41 years), the Alberta Progressive Conservatives, are about to be dethroned by a more conservative party, the Wildrose Party.

http://www.nationalpost.com/to...

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Wildrose is really more libertarian.
Well, Paul style libertarianism which I know many people don't consider libertarian at all, but I do. Probably preferred by all conservatives though since to my understanding (and my understanding of Canadian politics is really quite slim) Redford is actually really moderate.

Wildrose has been off message lately dealing with some controversial anti-semitic comments one of their candidates made recently though, so I wonder if they really have it in the bag quite yet.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Wildrose = new Reform Party??


[ Parent ]
Sort of
A lot of the leadership of the Wildrose Party has direct ties to the old Reform Party.  Many of them were educated in the Calgary School of Economics, which was a breeding ground of Reformers and now federal Conservatives including Harper.  Harper's old campaign manager is Wildrose's campaign manager.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
A long time coming.
The Alberta PCs are basically the equivalent of country club Republicans (although it's Canada, so a notch or two to the left of that), who have occasionally tacked rightward to win over Alberta's electorate (very conservative for Canada). I don't know if he's still the provincial PM, but Stelmach was basically disliked by the entire right wing of the Progressive Conservative party. I actually thought Wild Rose was going to win the last time Alberta had provincial elections.
Fun fact: the previous record-holder for the longest party of government in English-speaking North America was, I'm pretty sure, held by the neighboring Seskachewan NDP (social democrats for those who don't follow Canadian politics), until they lost to the Sask Party earlier this decade. Of course, there's also the PRI in Mexico to contend with...

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
When was the last time Republicans controlled the
Maryland Legislature?

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Ed Stelmach
resigned as the PC leader(and premier) last year and was replaced by Alison Redford. That move initially helped the PC's in polls, but since the election was called, the Wildrose Party has pulled ahead. A week ago, the Wildrose Party was polling double digits ahead of the PC's, but recent polls show that down to about a 6 or 7 point lead.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yea
Stelmach was not popular with anyone and the convention rules made it easy for someone like Redford to win the leadership.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Alberta
Is very conservative by American standards too. It's like Texas without Hispanics.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Up in the Air

I think that the outcome of the Alberta election is still very much in doubt and revolves around two questions.  

1.  How many center-right voters who have defected from the PCs to Wildrose will get cold feet at the last minute due to a fear that the Wildrose isn't ready for government?

2.  How many Liberal and NDP supporters will cast strategic votes for the PCs in order to stop Wildrose?

If there are no more inflammatory statements by Wildrose candidates (and no more damaging revelations about Wildrose candidates) between now and Monday, then Wildrose should be in good shape.  

If not, then the answers to questions 1 and 2 could lead to a PC come-from-behind victory.  


[ Parent ]
Wildrose is not clearly anything
The Party as a whole is a successor to the Alberta Alliance which was a lot like the Constitution party. Daniele Smith, after winning the leadership has taken it in a libertarian direction, which has been easy because there is no party apparatus.

But the big problem will be the same one the NDP had in Quebec, and the ADQ had in 2007 in that province, namely that success has come so suddenly that the range of candidates stretch from Bill Hudak=esque buffoons, to Christian preachers, top ex-NDP and Liberal opportunists.

Smith will either run the government as her personal shop, and bring over a bunch of PC Mps to staff her cabinet and secure her position or chaos will break out. In this sense a smaller victory is better, because there will be more PC MPs to the cross the aisle. The worst case would be winning 74 seats, since it would mean Smith would dependent on her own caucus for Ministers.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Is there any free-market traditional liberal party in France . . .
that generates any meaningful support?  Say, a party like the Free Democrats in Germany.  

[ Parent ]
Isn't that Sarko's party, ostensibly?
IIRC the French right is a coalition between the Gaulist right and a more FDPish party, and Sarko originally hailed from the latter.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
France is a lost cause
The benefits of federalism laid bare. Let the Statist Left run the place they way they want. We'll see the results in time. Let them sink into a socialist backwater if they so want.

 

21, Thatcherite,


[ Parent ]
Totally Agree. (nt)


[ Parent ]
if I do a good job as vice president
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

I'm sorry, as senator


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Joe Walsh is not a 'Deadbeat Dad'
http://atr.rollcall.com/illino...

I am shocked that someone would accuse their ex-husband of anything that wasn't 100% true. Shocked.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Makes me want to pick a bunch of FB arguments with liberal friends
Who jumped to conclusions. Love this line --

"Joe is not and was not a 'deadbeat dad' and does not owe child support."

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
RR
This makes me want to go make my profile picture myself with Joe. Should I? Heh.

I posted something about Joe today and my liberal friends were merciless about the "super angry Tea Partier" Joe Walsh, the "most corrupt member of Congress". They didn't want to listen when I pointed out this exact line.

RRH FB friends of mine, enjoy the ride (if I do change my picture to Joe and myself).


[ Parent ]
IL-13: Gill internal done by Victoria Research
Link

David Gill 40%
Jerry Clarke 33%

David Gill 41%
Rodney Davis 31%

He's receives over 50% in the portions of the old 15th that are in the new 13th.

The good new for Republicans is that for mystifying reasons he tested Obama-Romney and found Obama up 4 (no exact numbers). Obama won this by 11 in 2008.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Meaningless stat of the day
He's receives over 50% in the portions of the old 15th that are in the new 13th.

I'm positively shocked that the college towns of Urbana and Champaign would vote for a Liberal Democrat...

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Adjusting for usual bias
Obama is likely behind and his name recognition from his previous zillion races could get him to 35% adjusted.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah, This Actually Looks To Me Like a Good Result For Republicans
Gill is virtually polling against "nobody" right now (we don't even have an official candidate!), and this is the best he can do?!

Based on this, I'd right now rate the IL-13 race as "Lean R".

But if we get a good candidate in there, I'm pretty sure it'll evolve to "Likely R" fairly shortly...  


[ Parent ]
AR-04: CUPVF Picking Cotton
Here's a huge get for Tom Cotton... Citizens United has switched their support from Rankin (well, in 2010) to Cotton (in 2012).
"Although CUPVF supported Beth Anne Rankin two years ago, we believe Tom Cotton is an extraordinary candidate whose service to his nation and steadfast commitment to conservative principles sets him apart from his opponents," said David N. Bossie, President of Citizens United.  "Washington needs tested leaders who have the courage to defeat the liberal Obama agenda and Tom Cotton has the uncommon skills necessary to accomplish that mission."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Awesome
Cotton and Grffin, along with Womack, will make for a good statewide bench.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Womack
Not sure why he's any better than generic R. He seems to be a standard backbencher.

[ Parent ]
He has mayoral experience.
He might be a backbencher, but he also has potential.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Because
there is no serious "Generic R" in the state (except maybe Mark Darr).

Right now, your statewide bench is
Representative Tim Griffin
Representative Steve Womack
Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr
State Representative Loy Mauch
Businessman Curtis Coleman
Businessman Mike Akin
State Representative Denny Altes
Land Commissioner John Thurston

(Notice how Crawford doesn't make the list)

Right now, the only person who could beat McDaniel or Ross in 2014 would be Womack. Darr could eventually, but his name recognition is very weak. All the others have little to no name recognition, and in some cases are probably not the people the Arkansas Republican Party wants to deal with.


[ Parent ]
Scott Brown/Yankees
It doesn't seem to be getting much play here because if you asked 100 Red Sox fans who Randy Levine is, most don't know.  If it was from A-Rod, Aaron Boone, or Bucky Dent, it's a bit of a different story.  
Also, I know when they do the Jimmy Fund TV and radiothon every year, they make a point to thank the Yankee fans who give money as well, and I believe the Yankees ownership usually gives a nice donation.  So just some name as a Yankees owner doesn't really get people riled up.  

Yes, I originally thought it was from Steinbrenner
If it had been Hank Steinbrenner then Brown would have faced some pressure to return the money. But I had never heard of Levine before yesterday either.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen: Steelman up 7 on McCaskill, Akin up 5
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Not sure what to think about this because it's Rasmussen, but even if it's too favorable for Republicans, it still shows this as a very winnable race.

42, R, NE-1.


PPP had it dead even
With RV, so 5-7 LV isn't a huge stretch...

[ Parent ]
Same poll
Also has McCaskill underperforming Obama is too. She's just unpopular, besides being in a R-trending state.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I certainly have my bias
against McCaskill.  People can dismiss her issues with the family's executive jet and several hundred thousand in late taxes on it.  Her husband made his millions in the nursing home business.  I am sure where you live you see the ambulence chasing lawyers advertise about suing for nursing home abuse.  All that stuff has a cumulative effect.  The family had its millions off of medicare/medicaid fees for nursing homes. Now they have fablous homes and an executive jet. Tom Eagleton she is not.  

There are some simmering party issues in MO.  McCaskill took out Gov Holden is a bitter primary in 2004.  Surely there is wounds about that.  There has been some bad blood between Clay forces and McCaskill over judicial nominations in MO. Now as I understand it McCaskill and Gov Nixon are currently neutral in Clay-Carnahan primary.  That's a lose lose situation for both.  

I am convinved that number of folks, on the D side, who just love McCaskill is quite small.  Maybe folks in Jackson county-of course her new home town in his Millionaire's hubby cushy St louis county home.    


[ Parent ]
I've been convinced all along McCaskill will lose
She's like Bill Nelson, Bob Casey and Debbie Stabenow...except in a Lean R state (at least in this cycle). Her enthusiastic embrace of Obama during the '08 primaries probably doesn't help her cause. And, contrary to her empty "moderate" rhetoric, she's posted a thoroughly liberal record in the Senate.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Obama and the White vote
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

This isn't an Obama problem. It's a Democratic problem. They do their best to alienate White voters.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I don't go where I'm not wanted
Outside of my current geography as a Livingston County native, I would have been the typecast democrat pre-Reagan. Irish Catholic on both sides. Somewhat protectionist. Mom's side was a prominent democrat family before the depression. Dad's side UAW, tool and dye, and before those days, they worked the railroads. The Republicans and democrats ideology were both split with the Millikens more hostile to pro-lifers than most democrats.

My family is split politically, but more conservatives than democrats, and many of them were converts.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
NC congressional primaries.
Given that NC has like 5 contested Republican congressional primaries this year, I would really like an in-depth diary on them. Who are the candidates, what are their backgrounds, who do our local North Carolinian posters like and why. This is equally true of other states coming up which have a lot of contested primaries, but NC really sticks out to me as Schueller, Miller and Miric (SIC?) are all retiring and Kissel and Macintyre's seats have also been made more competitive. If somebody's already done this, then (A) sorry for missing it and (B) please post a link.

Thanks.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


Diary
I did one over a month ago. http://www.redracinghorses.com... A lot of it's relevant but some of it's now dated. I might post some new information but as a comment, not a diary. I'm especially knowledgable about NC-9 because I live in the district and it has become very interesting due to all the candidates and their antics.

[ Parent ]
The back story behind Cantor taking sides in the Manzullo/Kinzinger race
Politico has a story out about bitter feeling that might have existed between Cantor and Manzullo over comments Manzullo made about how Cantor (who is Jewish) would not be "Saved":
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Now this interview comes out where Cantor is asked about anti-semitism in the GOP house caucus and is surprisingly silent:
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

I wonder if Cantor's feelings along these lines didnt play some role in his strong support for Kinzinger and that he did it to send a message.


Very old news
This came out like 2 weeks ago. It's a very interesting story, though. The follow up is also interesting.

[ Parent ]
The follow up was new
That's why I posted this and linked the two stories together.  

[ Parent ]
Understood
Thanks for posting, it's fascinating nevertheless.

[ Parent ]
Holden pulls all negative ads
http://citizensvoice.com/news/...

The desperation out of Holden is evident.  

28, Republican, PA-6


Epic Fail by PA GOP not having a placeholder run in the primary
Who's step aside for a popular NEPA or Schuykill R if Holden lost  

[ Parent ]
Everybody doubted it would happen
Every prominent person in both parties thought Holden had this in the bag.  Several Democrats were interested but scared away when Holden was drawn in the seat.  Now they are stuck with Cartwright who is a loose cannon.  This guy can be Alan Grayson if NEPA if given the chance.

One must wonder if Chris Carney would have won this primary if he ran.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
PA-AG: Kane leads Murphy in internal
http://www.politicspa.com/kane...

Seeing Patrick Murphy lose is always a great thing.  His embracing of the professional left apparently is not going over well statewide.

28, Republican, PA-6


PA-AG: Hahaha
Some people on some Dem blogs I'm sure some of us read for counter-perspective were convinced that Murphy was the one to take PA-AG for the Democrats because he'd "crush in Bucks!1!" and "sweep all of the counties in SEPA big time!1!1"

He may not even make it to the general. Hah!


[ Parent ]
Murphy
I am not sure where they thought he would sweep SEPA.  He lost Bucks 2 out of 3 times when he ran for Congress.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Exactly what I said
Their thoughts were absolutely comical.  

[ Parent ]
Oh yea
Remember SEPA will be as blue as Massachusetts in a few weeks in their world.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
SEPA
It's scientific fact that Obama will be pushing 70 in DelCo and MontCo and 60 in Bucks and Chester!1!!!1 Soon, LanCo will be solidly blue, too!1!

[ Parent ]
Remember That Poll I Told You All About?...
Who called me up a few days ago asking about the favorable/unfavorable ratings for all the candidates in the Bilbray CA-52?

Well, apparently it was done by Survey USA (for KGTV (aka. News 10) in San Diego) - here are the results.  


Favorability?
How about polling the actual race? You really don't need a lot of people favoring you when no one in the race will get 30%. It looks good for Bilbray. He's +2 with independents and +11 with Tea Party. John Stahl, his Tea Party challenger, is -6 with the Tea Party.

What's interesting is that all the lesser known candidates have favorables less than half of the unfavorables. The few people who know them, dislike them.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Scott Peters
So. . . looks like Scott Peters isn't nearly as scary as you had claimed him to be a few months ago.

CA RRHers, who will the Dem be who makes it to the top 2? I hope Saldana does; she seems to be a "PURE PROGRESSIVE!!1!1!" type.


[ Parent ]
Saldana
I'm tired of the whole "she's a progressive, she'll lose badly" thing that some people throw out.

I don't know much about her but she was elected in AD-76 3 times by wide margins. She represented most of the southern half of the district in the assembly and that didn't include La Jolla or Pacific Beach. Between progressives, 20 somethings, and UCSD it's a good area for Democratic votes. No, she won't play well in Poway or RB, but what Democrat does?

She's 13/34 with Republicans. That doesn't sound good until you see Brian Bilbray is 8/55 with Democrats. She isn't coming off the Moveon.org. I think she'd be a formidable foe for Bilbray ad we know that I'm bullish on Republican chances in California.

This isn't Francine Busby. [sigh]  I don't think we need to be reminded what happened the last time Bilbray went up against a 3-term assemblywoman.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
LCL
The thing is her more centrist opponent is also a popular elected official (although she's out of office, I think, or on her way out). I'd rather face a popular progressive than a popular "moderate." I feel like he'd be an easier sell. I'm still not sold that Bilbray will win (though I think it's more likely than not) but I think Peters is a bit scarier (albeit not all that scary).

[ Parent ]
He may be scarier
But this isn't CA-10, 21, 26, 31, 41, or 47 where the Democratic frontrunner is the only one who could win. I'd breathe a sigh of relief if Jose Hernandez went down, but here I don't see that much of a difference. If she wins, she's going to rack up a lot of votes south of the 52. I won't breathe a sigh of relief if she advances.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Critz might not back Altmire
http://thehill.com/homenews/ca...

I expect the Cambria machine to play sore loser in this race.  That might be enough to sink Altmire.

28, Republican, PA-6


But What If Altmire Loses?...
...as I am now expecting.  

[ Parent ]
Beaver machine
I could see the Beaver machine doing the same thing.  We essentially drew a district where the Democrats hate each other.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PA-12
So, you could see a situation where either machine is like "F*** this, we'll let Rothfus win and take it back with our own guy in two years?"

[ Parent ]
Basically yes
You are dealing with very territorial machine politicians with nothing to lose.  These people are not going to be motivated to help Obama either.  Nobody is exerting any authority over these clowns and its showing.  Casey, McChord and Wagner are too weak to control them.

The unions and party machine have a lot to lose on Tuesday.  If Critz, Holden, and Murphy all lose, which is probably 50/50 they all lose at this point, they are going to have some issues.  Essentially three union backed candidates lose to a conservaDem, trial lawyer shrill, and some dudette.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
PPP's latest national poll has
Obama leading Romney by 3, and Christie, Jeb, Santorum, and Huckabee help Romney's deficit against Obama, while Palin, Rubio, Paul, and Ryan hurt him.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Bit different than DKE--PPP national poll they did. Christie helps Romney get into a 47-47 tie with the President.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


and of course
2% Democrats undecided
8% Republicans undecided.

It's really just base consolidation and nothing more. I doubt the race has really moved as much as some think it has.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
agreed
Those horrible approvals from 2 months ago and double digit Romney losses to Obama were just Santorum/Gingrich voters expressing their support for their candidate.  

[ Parent ]
DCCC Ad Reservation Media Markets
Some of these are a stretch esp. Florida- $2.5 million for Young or Buchanan- not going to go through with that one
$1.8 million for Rivera- have a nobody candidate there
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

SC1-Charleston

18-24 year olds: Obama 48-GOP 41
In 08 Obama won 18-29 year olds 66-32.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

I have my theories of how voters born around 1990 or so and later are more conservative as a whole than voters born in the mid to late 80's, but I've posted about that before on here.  Point is, I don't think Obama will win the youth vote by the same earth shattering margin he did in 08. In fact I was just thinking the other day that Romney has a good chance of holding Obama to a single digit margin with them.  This poll would seem to back up that this is possible.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


18-24
Soooo many of my friends, classmates, and their older siblings who were absolutely head over heals for Obama in 2008 have lost that enthusiasm. Hell, I even know a lot of stoner types and artsy/theater types who have become disillusioned with Obama and those are groups that tend to be very liberal. A steep drop off would not surprise me. The only problem is that many of them also can't stand Romney and just won't be voting.

[ Parent ]
Rock on, children of the 90's
I haven't seen much evidence of this, but then again I live in a very liberal place that's not representative of the 18-24 demographic as a whole. I guess a couple of theories could be that we're children of 9/11 so to speak, and that many 18-24's will graduate into unemployment under Obama, and may blame him instead of Bush for the economy. Some first time voters this year were 14, and could have cared less about politics, when Lehman collapsed in September 2008.

[ Parent ]
Double whammy for Obama forces
as 18-24's not only voted 2-1 for the D's but the % of young voters was at an all time high in 2008.  Check out CNN exits for 2008 and 2010 for % of young voters.  Check out vote totals for Obama in Madison WI, Columbus OH, Ann Arbor, Boulder and so forth.  Young people waited in line for hours to early vote in 2008 for Obama.  

Its a mantra for the D's but it will not be repeated in 2012.


[ Parent ]
1990s Kids
Yeah, I noticed something similar when I was in High School, though the split seemed to be around 1992, so the kids a year ahead of me were more liberal than the kids a year behind me. However, I do concede that I live in a very conservative area so that may not be a good representative sample.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yea I've seen a similar split
And I think it's right around 1990 or so and yes, I do think 9/11 might have something to do with it.  I have five brothers with birth years ranging from 86 to 94 and anecdotally I've noticed kids around the ages of my youngest brothers` seem much more conservative than those the age of my older brother and I ever were.  And if you look at 2010 exit polls, Ron Johnson, Rubio, Blunt, Rand Paul, and other Republicans ran about 10 points better with 18-24 voters than 25-29 year olds; this didn't happen in all states but in a lot of them it did.  I'm looking forward to 2012 exit poll data so I can see if the trends I think are happening hold up.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
A lot of Second time Presidential voters
who I know drank the Obama kool-aid in 2008, but are not going to refill their cup in 2012. The interesting part is whether or not they will either a.) not vote, b.) vote for Romney, or c.) split their ballot as kind of "I voted, but both sides stink" attitude.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
What scares me
is that the same poll shows 69% of that age group support more income redistribution. I weep for my generation.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
They're Not Earning Anything
This result is typical of young people - it's easy to say the government should take other people's money when you don't earn any of your own.

But once they start earning their own salaries, they'll change their tunes, but quick!

(Incidentally, this is why some of us would like to see the minimum voting age either raised back up to 21, or at least see 18-21 year old voting restricted to just those in the full-time workforce or in the military...)  


[ Parent ]
I thought of that, but
between minorities, which tend to make up a larger share of the young vote, being generally more in favor of this than whites, and the continued Europeanization of American culture among the young and monied, the number might not decline enough to avoid an electoral problem going toward.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*forward


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
so RRR, SOTS, Aggou, and I shouldn't vote?


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Apparently not, JNCCA.
You know, JNCCA, we're way less educated on the issues than the fry cook who works full time and votes straight ticket for one party or another because his parents were of that party or because he likes how the candidate sounds on tv.

I actually find the premise of the voiced "21 for voting" argument remarkably arrogant. If I'm a student but I plan on working part time to help alleviate some of my parents' burden, does that still mean I don't know the "value of hard work?" Does that mean I have no idea about how the government will be spending my money? SMH.

Many working Americans don't even pay a federal income tax; they get unearned income tax credits and the like. That's cash back from the government! I'm fairly sure they're not voting on tax issues as some around here presume everyone who works full time does.

I plan on going to law school and then maybe getting a Masters in Government or an MBA. That means I'm going to be in school until I'm 25 (at the least). Even though I'll be 21, the voting age in his dream world, does that mean that I won't be smart enough to vote until I'm 25 (or older) because I won't have a full time job and won't be in the military? Why not just staple voting cards to yearly tax forms in that world?

People don't only vote on spending issues. They vote on social policy that affects them (although I myself pick my candidates on their relative fiscal conservatism).

If I'm smart enough to attend a college next year, and I'm trusted to be smart enough to be able to blow my money on the lottery or cigarettes, smart enough to make wise decisions while driving, and I have to sign up for "selective" service, why can't I vote?  


[ Parent ]
Correction
*this "dream world," not his. Sorry, missed the "t."

[ Parent ]
You're Not a "Stakeholder", Sport
College kids are not producers - they're actually a net drain on the system. Why should they have any say in what happens with other people's money, when they make none of their own?

It has nothing to do with how "smart" you are. (I was probably "smart" enough to vote when I was 11 - doesn't mean I should have been allowed to.)

I'm a strong believer that only people who have a true 'stake' in the system should have a vote. I've already said I'm not a "universal suffrage" guy.

The original 21 year old age cutoff made much more sense to me.  


[ Parent ]
I have a stake.
I am a part owner in a family-owned corporation (as well as an affiliated charity on whose board I serve). I get disbursements, and the public policy can affect the size of those disbursements. They aren't huge, but they exist, and they fluctuate due to changes in economic sectors and business decisions. The charity has investments, and I'm on the finance committee. There's a meeting on the 28th, and I'll be in attendance. Economic conditions, influenced by the government, effect the charity's investments, and therefore how much we can give each year. Don't tell me that I don't have a stake.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Also
My dad's business is being really hurt by the government right now. He sold them a product, and then they gave it away for free. It's really hurting his business. It's not the end of the world, but if things really go downhill because of a stupid, anti-business (or at least non-business minded) decision that some guy in the government made, it could affect my future, especially as it relates to college tuition. Again, I have a stake. More than one, actually.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
And CoD
but by many accounts I look older than 21 so I guess I'm not qualified.

Snark and self-praise aside I find that our generation, particularly those in high school really just don't care and aren't that interested. They just agree with whatever sounds good, fair, and gets them more benefit$.

Just because they're too stupid to think doesn't mean they shouldn't have a say. They are legally adults and if they can be put in jail for a crime they committed and assume full responsibility, then they can assume full responsibility for their actions in voting. We can't disenfranchise those who are informed like jncca, aggou, RRR, SoTS and I because of perceived stupidity. If they feel that way about an issue, let them vote. It's our duty as citizens to inform.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commissioner, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
temporary thing
On the core issue of whether you support big government a lot, even Gen X was very in favor of it in 1988. By 1999, they had the same attitude on big government as the Boomers.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes....

Things will change as the Gen Yers grow up and move out of mommy's basement. I've seen that myself among my peers over the last 4 years.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
And those have made the country so much more conservative... /end snark


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*those Boomers


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
well
Look at where the Boomers were the in the 60s and 70s, politically. They've shifted.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
True
When I think Boomers, I just immediately think liberals, even though my parents are Boomers and are conservative. Almost everyone on my mother's side (and that's a big group) are left-wing Boomers. Everyone except my mother and my two uncles on that side, and we're talking about going to second cousins here, are actively liberal.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Definitely
I cannot tell you how many people tell me I was right about economic things now they are making money and paying taxes.

In terms of income distribution, I hear a lot of younger people who think it is an injustice we spend so much on the old but so little on the future.  I agree with this mentality.  Those who have voted the most should suffer the most in terms of cuts.  In a democratic system, those who screwed up by electing incompetents should bear the risk proportionally to their voting age.  Make people choose between their kids and their parents.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
i can definitely agree with that
The 1993 or so onward crowd generally came 'of age' post George W. Bush.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I think the question is
How old kids were during 2003-2007.

I think voters who came of age beginning with the 2004 election, saw doubts about George Bush, spread across every form of pop culture and the media, fully vindicated by his second term. Many of these voters may have turned on Obama and been disappointing by him, but they are disappointing in the sense that he failed to bring change and failed to fully reverse George Bush's polices. The things they don't like about Obama - the economy, wars, the deficit, are still identified with George Bush's presidency.

Those who came of age with the 2008 election probably remember very little about George Bush. Therefore rather than a failed revolution, Obama's campaign is the beginning of history, and his failures are a consequence of his policies.

There is an interesting reverse in Europe. Those who are in the 25-30 age group are much more moderate, while those who were born post-1990 are extremely left-wing.

The thing is, this is the sort of reaction you see against anyone in government who is unpopular. Reading anything long-term into it is probably a mistake. Whats more important are:

1. Policy Views which are correlated with aqe across partisan lines

2. The racial and demographic make-up of the younger generation, which is far less white. The latter is important in understanding a number of exit polls in the south. The Under-18 population of Mississippi right now is 48% White and 44% African American. Given politics within the state that is something on which you can make future projections.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
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