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Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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Afternoon Roundup for April 19, 2011

by: BostonPatriot

Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 17:31:14 PM EDT


National Polling: The monthly PPP survey has Romney pickup up 4 points and now trailing Obama 49-46. PPP also asked respondents about 8 potential Romney VP picks and found that they had little overall impact, although Chris Christie makes the race a 47-47 tie by helping Mitt shore up his base. Marco Rubio would have no noticeable effect on the Hispanic vote. Also, YouGov's monthly online poll has Obama up 49-42.

Romney: Mitt responded strongly to yesterday's "silver spoon" speech, saying that Obama is "always looking for a scapegoat, particularly those that have been successful like my dad." We've seen Romney mature as a candidate; I doubt he would have responded so directly in 2008.

Senate Committees: The DSCC beat the NRSC in March fundraising, $7.4M to $5.8M. The Dems also lead in cash on hand, $24M to $20M

MO-Sen: Rasmussen (which was very good in MO in 2010) has Claire McCaskill slightly improving but still in trouble, trailing Sarah Steelman 49-42, Todd Akin 48-43, and tied with John Brunner at 45. Much has been made about the weakness of the GOP field, but this is starting to look like a race we could win by accident.

AR-04: Citizens United is endorsing Tom Cotton, which is significant in that they supported his GOP primary opponent, Beth Anne Rankin, in 2008.  A new poll from TalkBusiness (a state political news outlet) has Rankin and Cotton tied at 39%, with the primary a month away.

PA-12: It took a while, but this primary has finally turned into the bloodbath we expected from western PA Democrats. Mark Critz, and a whole host of other state Dems, are angry at Jason Altmire for running a technically-true-but-misleading ad about Critz's "present" vote on the RSC budget. Now, Critz is saying he may not support Altmire in the general election, and we could see the Johnstown machine sit on its hands in the fall.  

BostonPatriot :: Afternoon Roundup for April 19, 2011
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I love PA Dems
They fight amongst themselves, and help us by doing it. PA Rs can do this too, but not nearly as often.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Potential Romney SCOTUS Picks
Tired of the Veepstakes? No problem, as speculation is already beginning for Romney's SCOTUS pics, were he to win.

Potential appointees:

Former Solicitor General Paul Clement (45 yrs)
-If ObamaCare is overturned, his stock shoots up as he has led the oral arguments against it, already considered the frontrunner

U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Brett Kavanaugh (47)

Judge Diane Sykes (54)
-United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit and former Justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Likely if replacing Ginsburg

Viet Dinh (44)
-Former Assistant US Attorney General. Interesting pick if Romney wants to pick a minority.

There are several others mentioned at the link:
http://mobile.reuters.com/arti...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Kennedy / Scalia
If Kennedy retires I wouldn't be surprised of it's Sutton. Given his pro-Obamacare ruling it'd be able to paint him as (somewhat) moderate while still moving the seat to the right.

If Scalia retires its probably someone more conventional who's going to be there forever. Kavanaugh is approaching 10th justice status so that makes sense.

If Ginsberg / Breyer don't make it then all hell breaks loose.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  


[ Parent ]
Unacceptable
Any Republican that tries to put a pro-ObamaCare judge on the SCOTUS should be run out of town.

The fact that I could imagine Romney doing something like this just reiterates why I don't support him.  


[ Parent ]
Scalia
Called him the best clerk he ever worked with.

Anyway, voting to uphold the constitutionality of the mandate does not make one pro-Obamacare. Based on Supreme Court precedent it was the right thing for a lower court judge to do, and I would have serious concerns about the nomination of anyone who did not do so. On a strictly intellectual legal level, the overwhelming majority of conservative judicial scholars supported the constitutionality of a mandate prior to the last year or so. There has been a volte-face in the academic field, or at least a willingness to shut up, but that is their(and Clement's) prerogative. But judges should not change their legal philosophies and views based on a change in the political consensus in the conservative punditry.

Your standard is basically a prohibition anyone who is intellectually honest from being nominated from the lower courts.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Ridiculous
Your Euro-centrism is showing.

Any judge that would vote to uphold the individual mandate demonstrates no understanding of the constitutional order of the United States, or its Bill of Rights, and should be allowed nowhere near a bench.

The fact that you think they can shows that you don't understand America, or American politics, as much as you think you do.  


[ Parent ]
If the Mandate Was So Clearly Unconstitutional
Why was it being pushed by people like Gingrich a few years ago? I am not saying that to be partisan, but because even when Obamacare was passed almost few conservative legal scholars argued it was unconstitutional. I may be mistaken on that, but my memory is that it was not until the State AGs launched a lawsuit that this came out as an issue, and many prominent conservatives have adopted an ambiguous silence rather than coming out wholly in favor of overturning the mandate. To say this is an open and shut case, even on the right is absurd.

Which turns towards my remark about federal appellate judges, whose job is to rule with Supreme Court precedent. Now the Supreme Court has the luxury of reversing it and striking down the mandate as they look likely to do, but can you honestly say that not doing so was somehow not the "conservative" position?  

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Gingrich Is an Idjit
And it is "open and shut". The individual mandate is a radical reinterpretation between the individual and the state wholly without precedent. Honestly I don't care what a bunch of foo-foo legal scholars were saying about it 5 years ago.

"[The job of the appellate court judge] is to rule with Supreme Court precedent." What Supreme Court precedent here?!

If this was as "open and shut" as you make it out to be, all of the appellate court judges would have voted to uphold the mandate. As only the Dem-appointed ones did tell me all I need to know about the true "constitutional foundation" there is for the mandate (i.e. there isn't one).

Bottom line: If Romney attempts to appoint a judge to the SCOTUS who voted to uphold the individual mandate, the backlash will make the Harriet Meyers saga look like child's play.  


[ Parent ]
*...radical reinterpretation of the relationship between the individual and the state... (nt)


[ Parent ]
What
"As only the Dem-appointed ones did"

Sutton & Silberman are both highly regarded conservative Republian appointees.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  


[ Parent ]
I cannot recall what mandate Newt
was pushing.  There can be very subtle differences in what "mandates" are and their constitutional nature. Was Newt pushing for a HC plan that required every individual to contract with either a private or public health insurance company? The Heritage foundation and other conservative groups were pushing market based insurance plans. In addition. In addition even requiring an employer to either offer health insurance or pay into an insurance pool-using the taxing power of the US constitution as an incentive is still different then an individual mandate. Plus some state mandates are certainly legit.    For instance Romneycare as well as Health insurance plans in VT and HI rely on state laws in those states.  

[ Parent ]
Agree
I would like to see Romney appoint someone with non-judicial experience.  Maybe a Governor or Senator.  Too bad he is too old, but I have a feeling Orrin Hatch would have made a great justice if appointed earlier on.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I suspect nothing from the Romney campaign on this
There's really no upside and all downside to announcing a specific name you'd appoint to the US supreme court when your running for president.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
JANICE ROGERS BROWN!!!!!
She MUST be on the court given the opportunity!  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
By the time
Romney would be making an appointment, which would be 2013 at the earliest, and likely much later than that, she would be 63. Probably older than he wants to go.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I don't care
I have a very Lockner-esque view of the constitution and she needs to represent that view.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
MO
I suspect the main reason Brunner does worse than the other two Republican candidates is lower name id.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Some have also voted for Akin in the past.
Was Steelman ever elected to anything statewide?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Treasurer I think.


Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Or
did she lose that race?

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
No
She served one term. She lost the 2008 Gov primary to Rep. Kenny Hulshof  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
but she's much better known for
the failed attempt to run for governor in 08

In Missouri, we have a host of minor elected state wide offices where in the general election all that matters is the party registration and are invisible throughout the year; State Treasurer is one of them.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Response
Mitt needs to point out that Barack Obama wants to increase taxes on the rich. Great. That won't help anyone other than the government. He wants to take away tax breaks for oil companies. Great. That won't help anyone other than the government. Mitt needs to emphasize that he wants to help you, not find some scapegoats.Punishing someone doesn't help. It just makes people feel good.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Conservative Party NY-27
Chris Collins is the Conservative Party's candidate.  I can't wait for the GOP primary to end.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

Senate committees
I'll repeat myself one more time. Rs massively outraised Ds because of Xroads and the like. We should stop comparing the the committees to each other.
The MSM won't stop because it makes Ds look imaginary good.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Some are reporting it to make Ds look good,
and I'm talking about highlighting the numbers more than usual. Others just don't know enough to adjust the numbers and/or are just used to doing it this way.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
WSJ/NBC: Obama leads 49-43.
Link

I don't have a subscription so if anyone can give more details on the poll it would be much appreciated.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Christie needs to be VP
There is no other option.

100% wrong
I refer you to the current King of Louisiana.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Bobby...
http://www.katc.com/news/gov-j...

This is a serious resume booster, for his own bid in 2016/20 or for a VP bid. Plus, there is nothing he wanted to do more in his term than this. If he did not accomplish his education reforms this year, I fully believe he would have turned down VP to try again next year, and maybe give up a 2016 run to run for Gov again in 2019 if he failed in this term. This is his biggest passion, and now, he would feel comfortable leaving the Governorship to be VP.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Extremely jealous.
The people of Louisiana are amazingly lucky that you have Bobby Jindal leading your state.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Agree with you both
those are far and away the two best options.

As a side note, I get the feeling Rubio is falling out of favor for the simple reason that everyone expects him to get it. The novelty is wearing off, and people (I don't mean RRH, I mean the general public and chattering class) are coming to the conclusion that he brings a lot less substance than meets the eye.

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
And today
I think he gave away he fully expects it to be him:

http://www.nationaljournal.com...

"If in four to five years, if I do a good job as vice president..."

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I acutally don't think he wants it
The odds are almost always going to be in favor of the incumbent and he'd have a clean shot in 2016. He can just Obama his way through the senate for a few years, and even though the field in '16 (if Romney loses) will be brutal he'll at least have the first primary megastate pretty much locked up. Being a failed VP candidate tags him as a loser.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
I'd Prefer Paul Ryan...
...as it might demonstrate that Romney is actually serious about entitlement reform and fiscal restraint.

However, as I don't think Romney is serious about either, we'll probably get someone like Christie, or more likely McDonnell or Rubio.  


[ Parent ]
Oh, no!
Christie is a fiscal squish!1!1

. . . seriously? Are you ignoring what he's done in New Jersey with a hostile legislature?

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Do You Ever Get Tired of Jumping To Conclusions?
I never implied that.

What I did say is that I want somebody who's front and center on Entitlement Reform.

Has Christie been at the forefront of restructuring SS and Medicare?! No?!!... Then you'll understand why I'd rather see Paul Ryan who's actually earned his bones on that.  


[ Parent ]
That conclusion was easy to jump to
You also said:

serious about entitlement reform and fiscal restraint.

Christie has definitely been front and center on fiscal restraint. Picking Ryan or Christie would be sending almost exactly the same message; either one would signal to 99% of Americans that Romney is running right on fiscal issues. If Romney picks a Rubio type that means he's running to the center fiscally.

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
^
This.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Pew: Romney Leads With Catholics
50-45 over Obama. Obama leads 49-45 overall. I'd love to see some good PA/WI polling right now.

http://rove.com/polling_notes/...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


NY-SD-27 court update
Ruling likely on Monday after hearing today.
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

Quite possible that the winner will never be in the state senate as the session is ending pretty soon.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Oops


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Interesting
I believe Catholics have voted with the PV winner for the past several elections.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
If you hate Chicago machine style politics. . .
I suggest you join this "Draft [State Senator] Kyle McCarter for Congress" Facebook page.

https://www.facebook.com/Draft...

Our best chance at holding this seat will come from nominating a state legislator whose name is not Bill Brady. State Senator McCarter seems to be a fine alternative (although I'm not sure who I back yet as it's unclear which legislators want the nomination).

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


PA Dems
We thought dog-gate was bad. I think this is quite possibly the stupidest thing I have ever seen. And I was raised in New Orleans. PA Dems released an ad attacking Romney...for saying cookies came from the 7-Eleven, not the local bakery, and comparing Romney to the cookie monster. I am totally fine with them wasting their money on this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Mmm...
Somewhere Ed Rendell is wondering how he even kept these morons in line for so long.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Actually,
the fact that he kept these morons in line for so long is the reason the state party has collapsed. The Democratic Party of PA (similar to what happen with Bredsen and TN) revolved around Rendell only. They never engaged in any organic growth, IMO.

[ Parent ]
Well
We saw a lot of this behavior in the 1990s as well.  It was not until he came along the Democrats got their act together.  Now I would agree his cult of personality did not built party infrastructure, but knowing how Pennsylvania politics are at times, I guess they would be hapless as they were in the 1990s regardless of Rendell.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
It was different in TN.
Before Bredesen, Speaker Naifeh and and Lt. Gov. (also State Senator) John Wilder ran the Democratic Party of Tennessee, along with local pols and the state chair.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Dems in PA
Democrats haven't been good at winning statewide in Pennsylvania. The last time someone who wasn't Ed Rendell or didn't have the last name Casey won a full term as governor or senator was 1974. No one pines for the days of Milton Shapp. They've never won an AG race. Only Ed Rendell could unite Philadelphia Dems with the rest of the party elsewhere.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes
Nobody is clamoring for the days of Milton Shapp when corruption was at Illinois levels and PennDOT went bankrupt.  

It is very difficult to get a candidate that unifies Pennsylvania Democrats.  Basically you need to get a candidate who appeals to some segment of the Republican electorate and someone who does not offend a good chunk of the base.  This inability to control the machinery leads to the chaos we are currently seeing.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Yes
Absent 8 years of Rendell (really the first 6 years as he lost control the last 2), the Democrats have been in complete disorder since 1993 at least.  Philadelphia becoming so dominant within the party has hurt the party as a whole.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Brian Schweiter
Making a weird comment.
He also doesn't think Obama has a shot at Montana.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Damn bigot Republicans
Republicans are just so intolerant of those that are different than them. Oh, and if anyone didn't see what religiously intolerant Republican Brian Schweitzer said, "[Romney's] family came from a polygamy commune in Mexico."

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
And I even forgot to post the link
[ Parent ]
There'll be an apology by tomorrow
Just remember the left's mantra:
Gay is to be celebrated
Lesbian is to be honored
Transgender is to applauded
Bisexual is to be praised
But if someone's dad was once around polygamists... The SON IS A WEIRDO!  Great line of attack from the tolerant left.

[ Parent ]
Um no
The vast majority of us don't consider "people who were once around polygamists" to be weird.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Hypocricy
Defines the left. I quit paying attention to them along time ago.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
A little hyperbolic,
but right on the fundamentals.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
A comment from a conservative democrat in a red state
is representative of the left? Not really, and most people on the left I know think Polygamy should be legalized!

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
interesting
I guess you know different liberals than I do. I only know of about people think that polygamy should be legalized. And 2 of them are incredibly conservative.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Really
I thought it would take longer for someone to play the Mormon card.  Democrats you disappoint me...

Another Mitt Romney sympathy moment.  Thanks Democrats... you really are humanizing Mitt.  Attack his wife.  Now attack his dead father.  Who will they attack next?  His sons for being settled and being married.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
huh
He didn't say he morally had a problem with it, he said it would hurt Romney with voters.  He was playing pundit.  Doesn't show bigotry to me (and yes I'd say the same thing if the party were reversed)

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Schweitzer
To me I don't know.  Schweitzer told the truth and never called Romney or his father weird.  So I think this is yet another manufactured controversy.  However, that being said, It's something I personally would never say and it kind of reminds me of Hillary supporters bringing up the drug thing in 2008.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Agree
This was an unforced error that Romney will milk for days to come.  This is the problem with the weird argument.  All of these weird things need to be played right.  If not Romney looks like a victim.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
by the way
Governor Brian still owes me all the money in his pocket, which he publicly wagered that Corzine would beat Christie a few weeks before the election.  He also said Deeds/McDonnell would be a coin flip:

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

If only he was right, those poor MF Global people would still have jobs since Jon wouldn't have Madoffed them.  But NJ might be a bit worse for wear...


[ Parent ]
To be fair
In late September McDonell was up around 3-6 in most polls so for him to be that optimistic wasn't that far off.

I can't help you with the money part though lol.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
NC News
Two NC political news stories that are interesting reads.

http://www.charlotteobserver.c...
I wonder how much this hurts NC Democrats in November. Also, since the sexual harassment is alleged to have been a male harassing a male colleague that reported to him, this might have an impact on the Marriage Amendment on the May primary ballot. (I think the amendment passes because polls have shown it passing, blacks will vote for it, and culturally North Carolina favors it as have all the other Southern states that now have it in their constitutions.)

http://atr.rollcall.com/is-lar...
Hudson seems to be the frontrunner in the GOP primary for NC-8 although self-funder John Whitley is aggressively advertising. How much of a negative his comments turn out is up for debate. Arguably, they don't mean much in a Republican primary because polls have shown a lot of Republicans are birthers. However, it might make the general election race closer than it should be if Hudson is the nominee. He most likely still wins the general election but I think he should know better. He's worked on Capitol Hill and in campaigns and I think he would realize what the media and the Dems would do with this comment.
 


10 Black (R)'s you Should know
http://www.blackenterprise.com...

Among them include RRH favorites Jennifer Carroll and Mia Love (well, half of us at least)

The article notes that Carroll is not building her political organization like other black politicians (unlike Rep. West) have failed to do, and it notes Mia Love is likely to win the convention.

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
The commenter formerly known as TheCallofDuty


Black Republicans
I have been even more critical of the individuals the party chooses to showcase as the face of Black Republicans.

Who is he talking about? I hardly think General Powell, Secretary Rice, and Ken Blackwell are people anyone should have a problem with.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
General Powell
General Powell openly endorsed Barack Obama (and hasn't expressed any regret). Not ok.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
That's for you and me to have a problem with
I don't consider that he's really a Republican, but I'd think that Black Republicans would like him.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure that Benishek has term-limited himself.
If this Rafael guy turns out to be legit, he might get the seat.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
SMH, SOTS
You've got a lot to learn about the Hill. In many DC offices, a large chunk (if not a majority) of staffers are NOT from the Congressman's home state (let alone his home district). The dude's from Washington, DC and has probably never been to the UP. Good luck with that. Career Communications Directors, other than Jim McGovern, don't just make it to Congress.

Oh, he's a Haverford grad! I'm going to try to get in contact with him. Haverford is quite liberal and I'm glad there is a recent alum in a GOP office on the Hill.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Staffers
Are quite often shuffled around as RRR may know, so he should continue in his path and perhaps go on interviews perhaps with his father on FNC...they're both Haverford grads iirc I wonder if the father is a registered D

20-Cubano, R, CA-38
The commenter formerly known as TheCallofDuty


[ Parent ]
Because Benishek was a new guy,
I presumed that he'd try to draw his top staff from his district.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Logical assumption
However, as others have said, you have to be a Yooper to win MI-01 (or at least a long time resident of the glove portion of MI-01). For all I know, he may have political aspirations but MI-01 loves its homegrown folks.  

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Correction
Apparently, he is a campaign staffer, meaning that he is living in MI-01. That makes your scenario plausible, I guess. Still, MI-01 is one of those seats where you've lived there forever or you're an outsider. It would be tough for any outsider to win that seat.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Only if he's a yooper
That district is dominated by small town and geographic politics. The UP has long had their own rep in Congress and their own culture.

A yooper is someone raised and lives in the UP. They had to at least grown up in the UP and went to school there. A troll lives below the bridge. That's not derogatory. A trooper is a troll who moves to the UP. Trooper is not insulting, but you have to prove yourself there with several winters to be accepted.

Other terms used up there are flatlanders, fudgies (Tourists to Mackinac Island), and FIB's which can stand for Friendly Illinois Brethren or something else.

If he's not a yooper or a native to North Michigan, he has as much chance as I do there. Slim.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
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