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Morning Roundup for April 20, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT


POTUS

National Polling: NBC/WSJ has Obama up 49-43, unchanged from a month ago. This is a rare survey where Romney trails outside the MoE, but is the preferred candidate on economic matters (40-34).

Schweitzer: Holy insensitivity. Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer said Romney can't win because, "he was born on a polygamy commune in Mexico." All things aside, this rhetoric has no place in the 21st century and Schweitzer needs to apologize. (Obama, to his credit, has denounced the comments.)

Veepstakes: Mary Fallin isn't high on many people's lists (perhaps because of a rumored affair), but the Oklahoma Governor said she would listen if Romney reached out for her. Fallin would offer a combination of legislative and executive experience. (Also, the linked article confirms that David Petraeus is not interested.)

Crossroads: 49 mill-i-on dollars for Crossroads/GPS in Q1, a huge amount that almost equals their sum from all of 2011. All of a sudden, it doesn't seem to matter that the DSCC is ahead of the NRSC by a measly few million.

Senate

Arkansas: His seat isn't up until 2014, but Mark Pryor is letting people know that he's running again. Rumors had Pryor interested in running for governor, or becoming the president of the University of Arkansas. Of course, Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad, and Olympia Snowe all said after the 2010 elections that they were definitely running, so anything can happen.

Florida: In a bit of a strange move, Connie Mack III is sending a letter to his son's supporters, attacking Florida's two largest newspapers for their liberal bias. Mack IV has suffered from some (perhaps unfair) unfavorable coverage lately.

Indiana: The state GOP is looking into whether the Mourdock campaign may have improperly used the party's database to contact voters and solicit money. The details on this one look a little foggy--it could very well be nothing. We'll keep you appraised.

Nebraska: Jon Bruning, trying to dribble out the clock in this primary, has picked up an endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce. This is now two states (Indiana) where the CoC and Club for Growth have come down on opposite sides in a GOP primary, as the Club favors Don Stenberg.

New Jersey: Mitt Romney will headline a $5K-per-plate fundraiser for Joe Kyrillos on Wednesday. Kyrillos is close to Chris Christie, who has been one of Mitt's highest-profile fundraisers, so consider this paying it forward.

West Virginia: If anyone out there is wondering what to do with their life, you should consider going to West Virginia and taking over the state GOP, because our establishment there just plain sucks. John Raese, one of our "A-listers," made the wrong kind of headlines yesterday by comparing smoking bans to Nazism.

UtahThis race is looking less likely to go to a primary, but if it does, the Salt Lake Tribune's poll says Orrin Hatch is well ahead of Dan Liljenquist, 62-20. Hatch has done an amazing job of turning it around after Bob Bennett went down in 2010. The convention is tomorrow.

House

IA-03: Tom Latham has reserved $1.5M in air time for this fall, perhaps teasing the cash-poor Leonard Boswell, who couldn't hope to make a buy that size unless he significantly turns his fundraising around. It's getting harder to see a Boswell win here.

IL-08: Joe Walsh and his wife have settled their case and issued a joint statement, that Walsh is not and never was a "deadbeat dad" and owes no child support. Of course Walsh isn't going to win, but it's nice to see his name cleared.

IL-13: David Gill (D), who at the moment is running against nobody, has an internal poll giving him the lead over Jerry Clarke (40-33) and Rodney Davis (41-31). Seeing as both Republicans are complete unknowns, it's not necessarily a bad result. The poll also has Obama up by 4 in the district, which he won by 11 last time.

PA-17: After Matt Cartwright accused him of going over the proverbial line in an attack ad, Tim Holden is taking the unusual step of pulling all his negative advertising. This does not seem like something a candidate ahead in the polls does.

NC-08: Ugh. Richard Hudson, who had been impressive so far in the race against Larry Kissell, went birther-curious at a town hall on Tuesday. Why??? I'm now looking at self-funding dentist Scott Keadle in this fast-approaching primary.

NY-27: Chris Collins has the Conservative Party line, removing one potential obstacle from his path (and in New York, there are always more than you think.) So long as Collins wins the primary against David Bellavia, he won't have to worry about splitting the conservative vote.

States

North Carolina: It's only getting uglier for the NC Dems, as party chairman David Parker is refusing to resign despite the massive sexual abuse cover-up he presided over. What makes matters worse is that the NCDP is getting ready to host the DNC in just over 4 months, and this is the absolute last thing they need going on.

BostonPatriot :: Morning Roundup for April 20, 2012
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Hatch is no Bennett
and due to his fights for GOP judges over the years, I remain in his corner.  Not so much with Lugar but that is another story.  

As far as money is concerned.  I remain convinced that the GOP and D's for that matter will be awash in it in 2012. I am still not convinced that it will widen the battlefield but rather it will make the 80 or so competitive house races more intense. Of course in races like Iowa3 & Iowa4 I still think the one on one personal connections will pull the GOP candidates in.  Latham will out hustle Boswell and King has built up so many personal connections to his district over the years.  


Wow on crossroads!


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Q Poll
Americans say that SCOTUS should uphold SB1070 62/27, including 45/43 among Hispanics.
49/38 for SCOTUS overturning ObamaCare.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Why does
Crossroads have to report?

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

The ability to collect unrestricted funds
is an seperate issue from being completely unregulated. Sort of like having no speeding limits but you still have to register your car.

This is similar to those states that have limits on personal or corporate contributions to political committees or individual candidates.  They still have to be reported with SOS.  


[ Parent ]
VA GOP
Anyone have contacts there?  Virginia Republicans totally need to get in on this issue: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04...

Rein in overly zealous regulators (farmed is not wildlife), increase economic freedom, win fans in the burgeoning NoVA Asian community... what's not to like?  


I have a couple, but they aren't super deep.
Definitely looks like an issue where regulators and the ever lovable sarc HSUS are on the wrong side (BTW: the Humaine Society of the U.S. or HSUS is distinct from the pet shelter people, just FYI).  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
I wonder what Andrew Zimmerman would say
If you can stand to watch "Bizzare Foods"....

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Truthers, Birthers, now the Spanish Counters...
http://www.observer-reporter.c...

Barack Obama is colluding with a Spanish company to count votes in Spain and steal the election.

The elections officials in Washington County really should forward these people to the appropriate mental health professionals.

28, Republican, PA-6


Morning Thoughts
IA-03: This one actually worries me. Latham is very strong, but Boswell has more territory, and is popular in Des Moines.

IL-13: This is why I follow the Automatic Internal Rule.

NC-08: We'll get who we get. No one is perfect. I don't like birtherism, but Hudson hasn't gone whole-hog, so I'll stay with him for now.

NY-27: Collins is now my preferred candidate.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


NYC Mayor: Catsimatidis will run if Kelly doesn't
http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesi...

He's better than nothing. And he'd obviously net Giuliani's endorsement, which probably alone leaves him relevant.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Manchin may not vote for Obama
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Watch rhe meltdown on the left over this
And rightfully so.
As we would and should do if Olympia Snowe would have said it.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Does he even need to say it...
I am not convinced he even needs to say this to win reelection.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Linc Chafee didn't vote Bush '04
(Though he wrote in GHWB) Republicans didn't really "melt down" and still supported him in 2006.

[ Parent ]
i should say...
The mainstream Republicans did.  Laffey did gain traction, but much like Specter/Toomey '04, the President supported the incumbent.  (Even though said incumbent made a point of saying he didn't vote to re-elect him.)

[ Parent ]
Come to the dark side, Joe
I'd welcome him to the Republican Party. I know Mark Kirk really likes Joe Manchin.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Speaking of Kirk
How is his health? I havent heard anything in a while

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Senator Kirk
I'm hearing he's doing wonderfully mentally. He called up Tim Johnson and let him have it, apparently, for being such a jerk and screwing over the IL GOP and the voters of IL. I haven't heard anything about his physical condition but CW and my physician parents say he will probably have partial paralysis on one side. All in all, I and most others expect a strong recovery that will allow him back into the US Senate fairly soon.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Tim Johnson
The senator from South Dakota, Kirk's collegue?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
i figured that Kirk would seek out Johnson, considering
The fact that Johnson himself went through this exact same thing

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
OGGoldy/ Johnson
No, I mean Tim "retire after primary" Johnson.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
d'oh
OGGoldy needs his 3rd cup of coffee, methinks

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Coffee
Haha, apparently so. :)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Wouldn't do it.
He's too proud of the family legacy, as much as he might dislike Obama he'll be gone in 4 years anyways.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Obama may be gone
But I never got the sense that Manchin disliked him personally.  So unless you think the next nominee will be more Conservative, I don't know why his decision will be easier in four years...

[ Parent ]
well, Cuomo and Warner
are less liberal and both have a decent shot

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
If Rs take the majority
or come within one seat of it I could see him considering it in 2013. He'd have 6 years to move to the right instead of 2 like Specter. It might be easier trying to get him to switch than courting HRH Angus I.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Doesn't bother me
This kind of talk will only help him in WV.  He votes with us the vast majority of the time and overall seems like a good guy.  I'm still proud to have him on my side.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Definitely a good guy
He always seemed to be very nice and I know he and Mark Kirk are super close.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
there aren't many moderates left in the senate
And since 2006, the number has dropped drastically, on both sides.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
My Empire State of Mind
Good morning, RRH, I'm currently on an Airport shuttle headed to Midtown Manhattan from LaGuardia then it's up to Columbia for the day with me.

Anyway, here's some amusing news. According to jncca, the Student Body President-Elect at UC Berkeley was in the closet throughout the campaign. He hid a major part of his identity from the student body.

. . . The new Student Body President at UC Berkeley is a REPUBLICAN. Hah!

/begin snark. Let's draw an obviously logical conclusion from this. ALAMEDA COUNTY IS TRENDING R!11!!1!1!

Tom Campbell vs. Barbara Lee would obviously tilt R come 2014 judging by this MASSIVE R trend in Alameda County. RightReformer can take out Nancy Pelosi, Meg Whitman can take out Jackie Speier, Carly Fiorina can move and win Woolsey's seat, Tom McClintock can McClintock his way over to CA-06 and take out McNerney, Orly Taitz can take out Lofgren, Richard Pombo can move to Vacaville and beat George Miller, Bob Dornan can have a political resurrection and move up to Davis and take down John Garamendi, LCL can take on Mike Thompson, COD gets to beat Doris Matsui, and IJB can McClintock his way up and take out Pete Stark. Oh, and due to this rapid red trend in NorCal, it looks like Dan Lungren will blow out Ami Bera by 60 or so points. Looks like LCL was right. . . CA isn't trending left. In fact, it's trending right, hard. ;)

/end snark.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


You should notify everyone when you cross a CD line.
lol.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Shamlet
You mean on the subway? Sure, I'll turn to random people and be like, "Hey so we just crossed from NY-14 into NY-15 but this part will be in NY-X in the new map!" Heh. I'm traveling alone so I can't annoy my brother like that. :p

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
I was thinking a taxi
would be an interesting thing to talk to the driver about =).

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Haha
Maybe I'd mention Assembly Districts and Congressional Districts that we happened to be in to someone unknown and that person would turn around and know what I was talking about and he would be MosheM.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Were you the guy
With a long pony, green shirt and saggy pants with the new PA-7 tattoo on your right arm?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
OMG, YES!
And were you the guy wearing the "Vote No on Prop 8" hat and the Planed Parenthood shirt with a peace sign necklace?!?! ;)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Yep


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Well if anyone in the world got a tattoo of PA-07
I think we know who it would be.

[ Parent ]
Bob Brady's minions?
I'm sure the passage of that district bought Philly legislators plenty of pork. :p

Or Ryan? Maybe Ryan has one on his forehead so it forever tortures PA Democrats.

Or maybe some ultra partisan woman has it as a tramp stamp. That would be fairly amusing.


From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Nah
She became a Democrat because of the war on women and has a MD-3 tattoo.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Her name is
Molly O'Martin.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Now you have me reading about City of Berkeley redistricting...
Apparently it's quite a contentious issue and has been delayed until 2013 so the city can vote on a charter amendment first.

The 1986 plan intentionally  split the student vote between 4 districts. At the same time, they made a charter amendment requiring all subsequent redistrctings to be "least change".  They're trying to repeal that amendment and require a community of interest standard instead.  

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
yeah it's actually quite contentious
fun fact for the day: Steve Wozniak's brother is a Berkeley City Councilman

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
in Berkeley
Isn't the college the place where you find the conservatives?

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Yup
UC Berkley is easily the Most Conservative part of Berkley, and probably the most Republican part of the inner East Bay.  The school itself is still Liberal by National standards, but compared to the 95% Obama surroundings, its practically Texas.

To put it simply, the school attracts a lot of white-collar engineering students from California and the rest of the US, particularly Asians, who tend to be Moderate-to-Conservative on Fiscal issues.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Interesting
I had the same theory about Cambridge, but as it turns out the college precincts are about the same politically as the rest of the city. Then again, a good number of the Republican students are probably registered at their home address since there are few places where GOP votes matter less than in Cambridge (with Scott Brown being the notable exception).

[ Parent ]
MIT
is definitely more conservative than the rest of Cambridge, though of course apathy is far and away the dominant political persuasion. The only precinct that's less liberal than MIT covers the areas by Cambridgeside Galleria which have a lot of very ritzy condo development.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
That is common among engineers
Engineers, laregely, consider themselves above politics. As an engineer, I agree on principle with that sentiment. However I am a political junkie. But that does not mean that the political realm is worthy of an engineer's brain.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
MIT has a really strong libertarian streak
http://www.independentpolitica...

9% of campus supports the LP in this survey (to 9% Republicans). 23% of respondents to the survey considered themselves libertarian ideologically, split between all three parties.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04


[ Parent ]
That survey was terrible
They purposefully had many more right-leaning choices than left-leaning ones (for example, they didn't count Tea Party supporters as Republicans). The number of Rs in that survey in actuality was far more than 9%.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Barack Obama said
Lay off Mitt for being born on a commune in Mexico. I know how he feels. I was born in Kenya and I've received... Wait...


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Technically
Mitt was born in Detroit while his father George was born in Mexico. That's another story for another day.  

[ Parent ]
How many wives did Barack Sr have?
Wasn't it quite a few?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
and ironically
He was apparently married to a Kenyan woman at the same time he married Ann Dunham.  This is has nothing to do with President Obama's policies and positions, but it's funny that ol' Governor Brian thinks that Romney is the one whose father was a polygamist...

[ Parent ]
The problem with the issue that Schweitzer brings up
is that America is just not ready to elect a President who is a descendant of polygamists. Oh, wait.... never mind.
But the real issue is the fact that Romney's background is a little wierd. He didnt have a normal upbringing eating dogs and tigers for their magical powers like every other normal President of the United States.  

[ Parent ]
Fox bipartisan poll
Obama up 2 in FL, 6 in OH.
No MittMentum.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Birtherism
I don't see what's so bad about it...I don't think someone should be disqualified for suggesting that presidential candidates should have to prove their citizenship. I definitely think they should.

Especially after the response to Trump
I don't see how there is any doubt about President Obama's birth in Hawaii.  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
Romney March fundraising
12.6 million, with 10.1 million cash on hand. Not that it matters really, as a couple dozen rich people gave Crossroads nearly 30 million

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

April will be interesting
Not only to see how Obamas fundraising jumps with an actual opponent but also to see if Republican donors switch between the Super PACs and Romney/RNC.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Obama's fundraising has been accelerating the last couple months
So I think somewhere in the 60 million dollar range will be likely.

I think Republicans will go the super pad route. The donors remain anonymous, and can spend as much money as they want. A  single10 million dollar check spends the same as 200,000 fifty-dollar donations Obama gets. Much more efficient way to sway an election to boot

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
NRCC says this is jerry mcnerney's new campaign HQ
http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Wisconsin SD18
Fond du Lac City Council President Rick Gudex will run against State Senator Jessica King (who defeated then-state Senator Randy Hopper in the 2011 recall elections).

http://rickgudexforsenate.com/

If the Dems flip SD21 in the June recall elections, we need to win either SD12 (open seat, Holperin retiring) or SD18 in the November elections to regain the majority.

If former state Sen. John Lehman manages to win in the recall election for SD21 against Van Wanggaard, he will surely be defeated in the next election because SD21 was transformed to a heavily Republican district in redistricting.


But He will not be defeated until 2014
So they have some padding

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
The GOP can always try to recall Lehman
He will surely lose if Wanggaard runs against him in the recall. The new district is a GOP vote sink.  

[ Parent ]
WI
Might start to schedule elections every year. Become routine.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Yes, especially if Lehman wins in June
The GOP should recall him next year. He won't survive in the new SD21.  

[ Parent ]
No, not unless control hangs in the balance.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
NY SD-27: Dear leader?
Looks like Fmr. City Councilman and Judge Noach Dear (and yes now that he's not trying to run in a majority black district he's back to using "Noach")might run for the new SD-27 in Nov:
http://www.politicker.com/2012...
Can we get Storobin on the GOP line, Fidler on the WFP, Dear on the Dem and Felder on the Indy in November?

I doubt Dear runs in the end
Same with Caller.
The whole establishment is behind the Skelos deal.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Since when did Noach Dear care about what the establishment thinks?
If anything Dear has always been somewhere in between mortal enemies and frenemies with Hikind and the Dem establishment.
As for Skelos and the GOP they should be wary of Felder. At best he's somewhere between another Carl Kruger and an IDC member. At worst he's a loyal Dem voting against Skelos.

[ Parent ]
Dear's only shot IMO
Is in the GOP primary and running as an R in the general on a strongly pro-Skelos platform. Skelos is personally very popular here.

He has a comfy judge spot.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Just so everyone hear knows who Skelos cut his "deal" with
It's this guy:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...
who works for John Liu and is going to collect his $194k govt salary while he runs for state senate.
And, yes hack politicians who get jobs as mid-level bureaucrats working for the City of New York make $194,000 a year! Apparently the 1% are all working for the government.

[ Parent ]
Elizabeth Warren
https://twitter.com/#!/joebatt...

Joe Battenfeld @joebattenfeld
Eliz Warren just confirmed she did not pay voluntary higher state income tax rate. "I did not make charitable contrib to state" #masen

Warren, as we all know, is in the 1% and a millionaire many times over. She's confirming that paying higher taxes is just meant for Republicans. Being in the 1% isn't about how much money you make. It's about what party you belong to.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


how come LCL gets to be repetitive and nobody complains?
I've literally seen "Elizabeth Warren isn't giving charitable donations to the government. Wah!" posts every digest recently

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Well
Hating on Warren is a bit of a pastime here. I don't have a problem with it.

[ Parent ]
I mean it's a GOP site
but the Warren hate is always for the exact same thing.

Be creative :)

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Creative Warren Hate
how about this one: she doesn't celebrate Patriots' Day. http://www.thecrimson.com/arti...

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
UT-LG
FWIW, Democrat Peter Cooke has named Vincent Rampton, son of ex-gov Calvin (1964-76) as his running mate. http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/p...

R - MD-7

What it's worth
Not much, but it's cool to know.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen
Mourdock to face no sanctions. http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

R - MD-7

MN HD 8B
I know this is a little down in the weeds. But this is a race that is starting to generate a little steam on the DFL side.

Republican Mary Franson is essentially Michele Bachmann, without the attention to details, the filter, or the law degree. I won't get into it on this site, but she has said some things that have.... drawn attention to herself.

Bob Cunniff is going to be her opponent, and he is a Tim Walz style DFLer, down to the professional, and coaching the same sport (football). He also has decent name recognition from his time on the radio on a local Alexandria station. This is a tough district for a DFLer, but Peterson wins here most years, and if any Republican can lose this district, it's Franson.

With the MN-GOP the laughing stock of the state parties nationally, Franson is going to be on her own. And Cunniff is going to be getting some of the finest staffers, and backing from the DLCC and the MN-DFL.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Not entirely true
Franson has a whole lot of problems, but the HRCC is hiring staffers for candidates. If the race looks competitive, she may get one.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
how are their finances?
This is not a seat Republicans should have to defend. And if it is a DFL pickup, it would be incredibly hard to hold in 2014. But some politicians hold seats they have no reason to be Ble to win.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Last I heard
about $1 million CoH.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Too deep in the weeds? Nah.
Here, we have submarines for the weeds.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Matt Cartwright: What a jackass
Senator Casey endorsed Tim Holden but Matt Lionel Hutz Cartwright put Casey in his ad. The more I know about him, the more I'm convinced he'll be one of my least favorite members of Congress.

http://www.politicspa.com/afte...

Ugh, I wish a decent Republican had pulled the trigger on a PA-17 run in 2012.

Holdengrad is going to get what it deserves for keeping him around for so long as it's going to be tacked onto a Democratic district (one that's not represented by Fearless Leader Timmy) dominated by Scranton and Easton and will have absolutely no say for a decade. This sucks for the GOP because the Skook and its 150,000 people (of which the majority are Republicans) could have shored up Barletta and we could have drawn a better PA-17 vote sink. Oh well, we never could have known that Holden was subject to lose.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Scott Walker 2016!
Sold on Bob Dold!


Holden
Barletta is fine in an R+6.  The bigger wasted opportunity was PA-10 being R+12 - unnecessarily strong, even if Marino is a weak incumbent.  If the legislature had put more of the Lackawanna cities into PA-10 in exchange for keeping Monroe whole in PA-17 we would have a better shot at PA-17.  

[ Parent ]
Agree
Barletta's seat is solid as it is stacked with hard Republican voters.  R+6 is actually kind of deceptive there as our floor in that seat is probably above 50% and the swing voters tend to lean Republican.  I am expecting him to get 60%+ margins going forward.

Marino is a weak incumbent, but Carney was a fluke of Sherwood and local Republican infighting.  

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Walker to Romney: Pick Ryan for veep
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

Gov. Scott Walker tells the Weekly Standard that he'd like to see Mitt Romney select U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his vice presidential running mate.

Interesting.

28, R, PA-07.


Mary Fallin's rumored affair
under Veepstakes. I had to laugh. Could it be related to this.
http://www.fitsnews.com/2012/0...

SC1-Charleston

Obama's share of the 53.7 million
46.4 million. He spent 37.7 million. The offices are expensive, but certainly worth while.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Holy Cow
That's way too high of a burn rate this soon.  Why is he spending so much on online advertising and polling?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
i do agree
Although I am a fan if advertising. Get out ahead of the attack ads that Republicans are scheming. But burning through nearly 40 million is a TON of money. Polling is valid, but assuming 10,000 or so per poll, a million dollars is over two per state. Assuming obama is not polling Hawaii or Utah, it is safe to assume he has paid for Ohio and Florida polls at least 4 or 5 times each. Maybe he paid for daily tracking polls is certain states up front. that wouldn't surprise me. But if not, I can't fathom why that much money is needed

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
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