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Evening Political Roundup for April 26th, 2012

by: Daniel Surman

Thu Apr 26, 2012 at 19:41:25 PM EDT


President-Primary

Romney: Shocker: the party is falling in line behind Romney after Gingrich essentially announced his withdrawal from the race. Monday he received Rudy Giuliani's endorsement; Tuesday Rick Perry. Today the Indiana GOP chairman declared Mitt 'the presumptive nominee.' Now we move into a public performance of reconciliation within the party, the means by which the GOP sheds the infighting of the nomination battle to focus its fire on President Obama in November.

Santorum: Part of that reconciliation is reflected in the hire of Santorum campaign manager Mike Biundo, a New Hampshire native, has been hired as Romney's deputy national director of coalitions. While he is probably good at his job, the news has made headlines for its marriage of the Santorum and Romney campaigns.

Senate

Indiana: $3.5 million in outside spending has been spent in this race so far, with $2.3 million of that going to support Treasurer Richard Mourdock. You can click the link to find the specific groups donating to who, but one of our commenters in Indiana sums up the result: 

I am getting a mailing a day from either the Lugar or Mourdock side.  Yesterday's was anti-Mourdock from the American Action Network.  We will see what today brings!

More Indiana: Wenzel Strategies for Citizes United (Mourdock supporters)- Mourdock 44 Lugar 39

Minnesota: Senator Al Fraken teared up on the Senate floor today while discussing Sheila Wellstone, the deceased wife of the Senator, in regard to his legislation to limit the eviction of domestic violence victims from their homes.

Arkansas: Chad Brownstein, a donor to Senator Mark Pryor's 2002 campaign, listed an internship in the Senator's office online without approval from Pryor for the winner of an auction for a California temple. A major brouhaha emerged after the winning bid was won by the founder of Girls Gone Wild. Browstein apologized, saying there was a miscommunication in listing the internship before approval by the Senator, whose office declared it "a hoax." 

Governor

Wisconsin: A big ad dump from a labor coalition supporting Kathleen Falk for $1 million. The ads will begin running Friday and go all the way through a day before the primary. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett easily has the edge here, so Falk will need the money to make it close.

House

Blue Dogs: After losing Holden and Altmire on Tuesday, the Blue Dog caucus was down to maybe 10 members slated to remain in its ranks by 2012. The group today released three new endorsements, likely to counter claims of its demise. They are former State Rep. David Crooks (IN-08), former State Rep. Pam Gulleson (ND-AL), and former State Rep. Gary McDowell (MI-01), who did not run with the group's support during his 2010 run. That makes 11 endorsements for the caucus this cycle, many of them in unwinnable seats for Democrats.

AZ-08: Both the NRCC and the DCCC are going up in the 8th, according to Hotline on Call. Both made $150k buys that will begin airing April 27th.

CA-02: Activist Norman Solomon's campaign released an internal poll conducted by Lake Research Huffman 18 Solomon 10 Adams 8 Lawson 5. California has a runoff under the Top Two primary, so the big race is for second place (both Republicans running captured less than 3% support).

CA-30: Both Reps. Brad Sherman and Howard Berman (D) are unloading their warchests on advertising for the upcoming primary between the two members. Berman spent $1 million on a cable TV buy, while Sherman unloaded $420k on a six-week run for a positive spot.

NC-11: Rep. Jeff Duncan in South Carolina endorsed real estate investor Mark Meadows in the crowded GOP primary in the 11th today. A candidate has to crack 40% to avoid a runoff between the top two in the primary.

Miscellaneous

Wisconsin State Senate: The DLCC is touting a poll conducted by Myers Research.

SD-21: John Lehman (D) 51 Van Wanggaard(R) 47

SD-23: Terry Moulton (R) 49 Kristen Dexter (D) 47

SD-29: Jerry Petrowski (R) 51 Donna Seidel (D) 45

Daniel Surman :: Evening Political Roundup for April 26th, 2012
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Evening Thoughts
Rombey: And so begins the fun part of the presidential election...

IN-Sen: I'm starting to think that we're wasting a lot of money here that could better be used for offense or defense, not purging.

AR-Sen: That's just hilarious.

Blue Dogs: Some of the endorses may be in unwinnable districts, but those three new ones are all somewhat plausible.

NC-11: This is a bit unusual, especially since Duncan is from another state and is a freshman, not a well-known incumbent, but the two districts do abut each other.

WI-SS: I know that these polls could be of, but SD-21 is starting to worry me.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


*edorsees, off


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Blue Dogs
I think they've found out that Democrats literally and figuratively eat their dogs.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

The joke is
That other than one, all are in McCain districts.
They don't dare endorse in Obama districts out of fear. Also, almost no non ultra-liberals are running.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Of the 25 current members
10 are retiring, defeated in a primary, or heavy underdogs this Fall. Mike McIntyre and Matheson are no better than tossups, which would take them down to 13. Whose left- Loretta Sanchez, Joe Baca, Adam Schiff, Mike Thompson, David Scott and 5 or 6 moderate Democrats. The only conservative true Blue Dog looks like Colin Peterson. Of the 11 endorsements they've made, none are favored. Lucky to get 1 or 2 of those. Pretty pathetic.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Conservative Democrats?
Calling anyone in the current Democratic caucus in congress a conservative is quite the stretch.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Conservative democrat
is different from conservative. ACU scores of conservative Democrats (Boren, McIntrye, Barrow, Ross, etc.) are 30 to 40ish. A Republican with this score would be called a liberal Republican. Its all relative.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
In that case...
at the current rate, in a few years guys like DeFazio will be considered "conservative Democrats".

That is why I prefer to call them how they really are, someone like Peterson should be labeled as a centrist. Someone else like Tim Bishop should be labeled as a moderate (as in representing the middle left). And then the rest should just be "left".

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Quite a change from the 1980s . . .
when Rep. McDonald of Georgia was part of the Democratic caucas.

For the younger among you, he moonlighted as head of the John Birch Society.  


[ Parent ]
well, even then, he was a total outlier
but yes, there's certainly been no true DINO in the caucus since Zell Miller.  Except I guess the case could be made for Bobby Bright, true.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Walt Minnick
Had his Political Affiliation as "Conservative" on his FB page.

[ Parent ]
Let big labor
Drain their money in the primary. It's not like Barrett won't be a union hack if elected.

The DLCC polls can be adjusted with the standard 6 points and the polls make more sense.

It's amazing that the is open is safe for the GOP. Maybe that is why she did it.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Speaking of wasting money in a primary...
I'm a bit concerned that we're throwing money away in Indiana. I get why Lugar needs to go (at least on guns; I'm not sure about other areas), but we're spending a lot of cash.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Still not as bad as AR-SEN in 2010
Labor spent millions trying to defeat Blanche Lincoln in the primary, turning what was a tough seat for the Dems into a hopeless one.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
CA-2 poll
Complete and utter bull feces. They have 44.5% of the vote going to Democrats, 5.5% to Republicans, and 3% to independents. This is a district that's 49.5% Democratic and 22.5% Republicans. No Republican got less than 29.4% in 2010. So we have 3 possibilities

1) Republicans in this district suddenly realized they like Democrats better.

2) Almost every Republican is undecided when virtually all the Democrats have decided. No real poll could come up with 75% of Republicans undecided while 20% of Democrats are.

3) They decided to create an electorate with Republicans in the single digits to show that Solomon can finish second if he gets the financial backing and volunteers he needs. That's not a poll. That's just numbers.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Rove Forecast
http://rove.com/uploads/0000/0...

Very interesting.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Actually
Not really, It's just polling averages.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Santorum
I had a thought about his role in a Romney administration.  Ambassador to Vatican City.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

it's called
Ambassador to the Holy See.  Just trivia is all.

[ Parent ]
Not a bad idea...
I could also see Chris Smith getting fingered for that (and doing a good job, incidentally).  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
I'm all for
Chris Smith moving on.
Lakewood mayor Menashe Miller would make a great congressman.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Smith
My guess is he wants to be Dean of the House as he's almost certain to get it if he waits long enough. An ambassadorship would leave him on the beach relatively quickly.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
That's an awesome idea.
We would have very good relations with the Vatican.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Santorum for HHS
No, I'm not actually advocating that but it would be a HILARIOUS confirmation process.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
NE-Sen: New Bob Kerrey ad on the possibility of war with Iran
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Needless to say he is deeply opposed.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


NH-01, NH-02: UNH likely voters poll
Shea-Porter leads 44-39, Kuster leads 40-39.

Link

Shaheen is on positive ground with 58-28, and Ayotte is somewhat less popular at 43-29.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


It's always better to be winning than losing
So Shea-Porter and Kuster should take heart since they are both apparently winning.

But I don't think it'll last. Especially in Shea-Porter's case. Her status as a left-winger, I believe, is just too deeply ingrained within NH's voters.

Age 43. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.


[ Parent ]
NH polling
I just don't trust this poll. NH seems to be one of the hardest states to poll and I do not believe Guinta is down at this point.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
The
Shea-Porter numbers discredit the entire poll.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Huge MoE
Besides being super-D-heavy.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Are there cross tabs?
Don't see them

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The state poll
Was +7 D in partisan ID. It's the same poll split by district with a huge MoE.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Totally Agree
Any poll that has Porter ahead of Kuster next door is total b******.

There is no way loony Carol is getting back in there, absent another huge D wave.  


[ Parent ]
This is the ugly
twin of an outlier Presidential poll.  I suspected it was outlier and the polling on these two house races confirms it. It does not pass the smell test.  

[ Parent ]
WI DLCC Polls
So, Petrowski is over 50% (anyone wanna try and bet against him?!...), and Moulton will likely be over 50% too.

So the D's only shot is SD-21, and considering this is a D-internal, I wouldn't be too encouraged about SD-21 either if I were a WI D...  


Question
When would run-offs in NC take place if they are needed?

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



July 17th is NC
June 26th is SC (and South Dakota, the only non-Southern runoff state).

[ Parent ]
I guess
LA wins for latest run-offs, with Dec. 1 :P  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Green Papers says June 26 runoff for NC as well
unless they are both wrong. SC's primary is June 12, runoff June 26.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
July 17 for Congress
If runoffs are not needed in any of the 13 Congressional districts, then NC will hold runoffs for everything else (state legislature plus local offices) on June 26th. Really a weird rule, no idea why they do that: http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.a...

[ Parent ]
Wow
And July 17 is so far off from the primary on May 8. Way too much time after first round voting. We have 2 weeks here.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I like the tight turnaround you guys have. NC's system really kills the momentum the candidates have coming out of round 1.

[ Parent ]
Do you think
that helps out the underdog? I am really hoping Bill Randall makes it to the runoff lol.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
NY Congressional District analysis
From The Hill

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

18 and 19 are both Leans R at worst
(the Dems are Some Dude caliber there) but otherwise I agree with them.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Hahaha
1) There's no way that McCarthy is safe but Lowey isn't. I'd say Lowey is less vulnerable than McCarthy. We have such a strong recruit in McCarthy's seat.
2) Israel is NOT safe in an EVEN PVI seat from 2008. Likely, maybe, but not safe.
3) Hayworth is NOT in a "pure coin flip contest." The race leans towards her, even if only slightly.
4) Sorry MSM, but Hochul's race is not a toss up.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Yeah
this seemed rather lol worthy on a few of those races.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
Agree conpletely, except
thatexcept that Hayworth has more than a slight edge. Her seat is still R+, the D is not first-tier, and their is down ballot R strength there. Are you now on the Fran Becker train, or do you still think that he should wait. Also, sorry for yesterday.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*?


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Becker
I still think he loses but this is not a safe race by any stretch. If he runs an excellent campaign and she runs her standard campaign (so, a really lackluster one) and he raises a ton of money he can conceivably win. I still do think he should have waited for a midterm election.

As for yesterday, there's no bad blood.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
I can't see him winning at all
I wouldn't call it safe, because the district isn't that blue, so McCarthy won't win 60-40, but I still can't see Becker winning this even in an off year.  You guys need to run an extremely rich moderate or someone who at least appears moderate like Meehan.  Becker is not that person.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
NY-04
I'd say likely D as of now but this matchup could even be a toss up in a Democratic midterm if Becker were to run a great campaign. He did very well against her in a significantly bluer seat in 2010 and I see no reason he couldn't do well in 2014 when minority turnout will be way lower (and minorities make up around of the Dems in this seat).

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
NY-4
Most of McCarthy's new district is from her old one. That went from D+11 in 2000 to D+5 in 2008. If Nassau county gets even redder this is a race.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Again
Not saying its not winnable, I just think Becker is the wrong way to go about it.  Unless it shifts to R +3 over the next decade I think you guys need to go more Gerlach/Dent style here.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Or wait for the seat to come open


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
On point 4
Born and bred in territory of NY-27.  I actually think this analysis is spot on for that district.  I think a handful believe that Hochul seems to care for their industries.  The blemish I think is her concurrence with the HHS mandate.  Right sense of local economic issues, wrong sense of local social issues is my assessment of her fit in the district.

Anyway, my real question is, when does federal paperwork need to be filed?  The article said that Collins has yet to do so.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO


[ Parent ]
NY-27
I get that you were raised there but you're acting as if the suburban Erie County portion of the seat don't exist. Those suburbs aren't fiscally liberal like you're insinuating. The NY-26 portion of Erie County may be, but this portion is not. She has voted the wrong way for those voters and the HHS mandate is going to piss off the rural voters. I just don't see her winning.  

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
I think you are underestimating her
This will be a difficult race.  She overwhelmingly won the same parts of Erie County when she ran for County Clerk, the same towns that came out for Collins in his unsuccessful attempt at re-election.  Visit the election archives for Erie County.  She ran in 2010.  This will be a harder race than you think.  Will she win?  Who knows.  Will it be close?  Yes.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

[ Parent ]
Local economic issues
My phrase does not equate to fiscally liberal.  She co-sponsored legislation about dairy farms with a Rep. Hanna.  This is a local economic issue as Wyoming County is #1 county in milk production in NY and #20 in the nation.  This is an example of a local economic issue.

Perhaps she doesn't see eye-to-eye with the district on national economic issues, but she understands local ones.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO


[ Parent ]
The filing deadline was the 16th
So Collins has at least filed state papers by now. He doesn't need to file federal paperwork until he starts raising money...which he should have started doing weeks ago. Also, he has no presence online: no campaign site (not even a splash page, no Twitter, no Facebook. If he hadn't already won the conservative nod I'd be questioning whether he was even a candidate.

[ Parent ]
It's The Hill
I mean you aren't asking them to actually  give you real race ratings are you?


[ Parent ]
It's The Hill
I mean you aren't asking them to actually  give you real race ratings are you?


[ Parent ]
New York won't be easy
I wouldn't quibble over one spot. If you think someone is Likely D and they say Safe, that's not much of a difference. That they think Lowey could be in danger expands the field. Israel and McCarthy are in play. Whether they're winnable is the question. That's 7 Democrats in play.

No, Kathy Hochul has no shot at winning. How anyone could make it a toss-up is beyond me. Charlie Cook, however, just moved it from Lean Republican to toss-up. Go figure.

Hayworth and Gibson are in toss-up districts and they are freshmen. We don't know how they'll do. Hayworth has candidates lined up around the block. Gibson is facing Julian Schriebman. He's got his own money and likely knows how to raise cash since he was the Ulster County Democratic Chair. Richard Hanna, on the other hand, got lucky. Apparently his opponent's first name is Sacrificial.  

King and Hanna should be safe and Grimm is in a district that he shouldn't be able to lose.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Dan "Sacrificial" Lamb
That's priceless.  

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Totally Agree
That's the most ridiculous rating - Hochul's not holding an R+7.  

[ Parent ]
The only way I can see their reasoning
Is that Hochul has nearly $1 million in the bank and her two possible opponents have yet to raise much of anything. Still, this district is a McCain 54-44. Democrats aren't going to win a district with McCain getting 54% north of the Mason-Dixon line even in a wave. (Or Don Sherwood runs after two years of scandal)

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The old PA-04 was 54% McCain.
Also, the old OH-18 was pretty close.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Within the past decade
Each of those have also had a Democrat as a representative.  This shows that we cannot take any seat for granted.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Wagner, MO

[ Parent ]
Those are both in the Appalachian/Blue Dog belt
Dems are stronger in SE Ohio and western PA at the local level. NY-27 doesn't have ancestral Dem leanings like those districts.  

[ Parent ]
Appalachia
It doesn't count, as it's moved hard right on a Presidential level and been slower on a congressional level.

And I really can't believe you're bringing up OH-18. [cough]Bob Ney[cough] Republicans can lose almost any seat in the wake of a scandal and this one not only resulted in jail time, but the Republican candidate was picked at the last minute.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
You said 'above the Mason-Dixon line,'
so that was my standard.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Fine
But the Mason-Dixon line didn't extend into Appalachia. It ran along the Pennsylvania-Maryland border. At the time West Virginia was below it and Ohio was the western wilderness.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
PA-04 would still be included.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Holding Vs. Toss Up
Considering her decided financial advantage and the GOP Primary I don't think Toss Up is terrible.  Let's keep in mind thats with regards to how the race is right now.  If someone said Hochul was Likely to win or even leaning I would laugh, but I wouldn't be shocked if someone said Toss up.  Right now.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Holdengrad and its warlord
Take a look at the comments on Holden's concession status. They show you how obsessed Holdengradians are with their Timmy.

https://www.facebook.com/Congr...

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


is an endorsement from Blue Dogs the kiss of death?
It seems that in most cases, its a sign its an unwinnable district in the general election.

And in other cases, won't it make it less likely that liberals  will vote for the candidate in the primary?


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


Not much effect
either way. Of those 11 candidates they endorsed, not one looks favored for the Fall. 1 or 2 winning would be a good result. I think Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ will be a new member. I would say they end up with 13 of their current members and add 2 to 4 more. Don't think they will be worth discussing anymore.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Kirkpatrick is just another Flagstaff liberal
There is no way she would join.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
She already has
was a member in her previous term.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Are you sure?


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Never mind
I just looked it up and that is surprising. But then again, not really since Sanchez, Baca and other liberals are as well.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
her record was actually pretty moderate
maybe not on the biggest items, but on DW-Nominate, for example, she's similar to:

Gabby Giffords
Harry Mitchell
Jim Marshall
John Barrow
Joe Donnelly
Brad Ellsworth
Baron Hill
Collin Peterson
Scott Murphy
Heath Shuler
(to Mike McIntyre's RIGHT)
Dan Boren
Jason Altmire
Chris Carney

oh, and to the right of every Dem senator but Ben Nelson.

That's a very moderate to conservative list.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Sure, it's a moderate to conservative list
When compared to the Daily Kos crowd or the people I deal with daily within academic institutions, but not with the electorate as a whole. Democrats always become more liberal when they have to (voting wise) and end up doing so when they are out of office (and don't have to pretend). From Clinton, Gore to Kerrey or Nelson, they always "evolve" somehow into endorsing even bigger government out of office.

Now on the list you provided there are some on there that have held it together better than most, but I wouldn't call them conservatives, as they likely voted for trillions of new spending in their congressional careers, in addition to an expansion in the role of government. And if they did not do so with their floor votes they helped in some form with either their votes for procedural matter (ie Ross for Obamacare) or for speaker (the "conservative" Boren for Pelosi).

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
well, what I'm saying is she's not like the California
"Blue Dogs" who really aren't Blue Dogs at all.  Her voting record fits the Blue Dog Caucus.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Loretta Sanchez
isn't a hard left liberal like her sister.  She's quite moderate and supports elimination of the death tax (for example)

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
An issue here or there doesn't make someone a centrist
I would consider Loretta a moderate within the party itself, but if we are using a football analogy, than she right around the 30 yard line.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Fantastic speech from Paul Ryan
It's a bit lengthy but I think I want to see him as VP now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



We need him actually putting together the budget.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
He just did
If Romney wins and republicans take the senate, they can pass it again.

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
The budget changes every time.
He'll need to be there to make sure the next one is good, and make sure that no one messes with it in committee or on the floor.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
The White House can always submit a Budget
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see VP Ryan submit the Romney White House's budget each year. Besides, it's not like Scott Garrett would pass a liberal budget once he gets the gavel.

[ Parent ]
Some things are too important to delegate.
We need Ryan in his committee chair, walking the halls of the Capitol, and watching the bill like a hawk so that any unforeseen problems can be quickly resolved. Also, I've made no secret of the fact that I think that Bobby Jindal should be the VP (or maybe Bob McDonnell). Christie and Ryan would, in my opinion, make solid VP picks, but I like them in their current jobs.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Agreed (though not on Jindal and McDonnell)
I adore both Christie and Ryan but I'd prefer they hold out on the national stage until 2020. I'm convinced the former will garner a second term and the latter, hopefully, can see his budget efforts come to fruition under a Romney admin and emerge even more of a fiscon rock star.

Right now, I happen to think T-Paw would prove a flawless veep selection. I really see no downside to him. I think Thune is very underrated, too, although I'm not sure he has the fire in his belly for a veep run, plus I'm not sure he's that close to Romney. T-Paw has that fire and he's been with Romney for ages now.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
T-Paw is far from 'flawless.'
He's boring most of the time, and I think he might be too grenn (environmentally).

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
If "boring" and "green" are his baggage...
I think I can deal with that.

He reinforces all of Romney's strengths - competency, D.C. outsider, inoffensive, proven ability to win over moderates in a blue state. I like Portman, too, and he's probably among my top 5 veep preferences, but he does carry a light backpack of Bush baggage and he's certainly no outsider.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Being that Green is a no-no for me,
and for me to overlook it, I'm going to need more splash and/or resume than T-Paw brings to the table.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
T-Paw
While I still love the idea of it being Jindal, I am coming around to think T-Paw is the best choice. He has all the pluses of Portman, except for Ohio, but without the drawbacks. He will connect to regular people, he has a great story, and I think he learned a lot from his campaign. No surprises with him, he was vetted by McCain and he was vetted in his own run.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
T-Paw
While I still love the idea of it being Jindal, I am coming around to think T-Paw is the best choice. He has all the pluses of Portman, except for Ohio, but without the drawbacks. He will connect to regular people, he has a great story, and I think he learned a lot from his campaign. No surprises with him, he was vetted by McCain and he was vetted in his own run.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Planned Parenthood's bad night in Pennsylvania
http://www.redstate.com/mdanne...

I think it has less to do with the actual candidates stances on abortion, but the fetish some have talking about them.  An 18 point margin in an open seat situation in the 134th is a romp.  I was guessing a 10 point win, but 18 was not expected by anyone.  The Democrat running there was obsessed with abortion to the point of it being a fetish.  Lehigh Valley Republicans tend to be the most pro-choice so if it does not work there, I am not sure it works anywhere.

The Montgomery County win should worry the Democrats as well.  They should easily clear 60 percent in that seat.  It sounds like we might have taken it if the special election was next week as we were gaining on them quickly.

28, Republican, PA-6


Are you sure your not overeading it?
A quick search indicates that the last time a Democrat won the 134th was in 1980. They have held the majority multiple times without it.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
And they most they managed in 2006 or 2008
Was 39%.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Open seat special elections
They tend to be closer regardless of the seat.  Legislative seats are generally uncompetitive with incumbents.  The bulk of the 2006 and 2008 flips occurred in open seats.  2010 was unusual as the bulk of the flips occurred in seats with incumbents.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Q1 GDP growth slowed to 2.2%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47202822

25, Male, R, NY-10

GDP - Keep in mind
There was .6 shrikage due to cutting the size of government, a lot of it local/state govt cutting.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
A fair point,
but were the cuts really high enough to cause more than a half of a point in shrinkage?

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
probably, but
that was correction back to normal.
Under most circumstances, the state government loses would have been 2009 & 2010, but state government employment was kept artificially high by the 2009 spendulus package.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
The 64 thousand dollar question
on GDP is whether the next move is up or down or sideways. I have seen much if any improvement in the economy for months now.  The improvement in the job market was due to two factors.  1st people leaving the job market and 2nd people taking lowing paying jobs.  Personal income has barely moved over the last year or so.  You cannot move GDP based on flat personal income.  In fact the slight move upwards on GDP was related to an increase in consumer borrowing plus a decrease in the savings right.  So 4th qtr and 1st qtr GDP was based not on an increase in income but rather people saving less and borrowing more.  Can that tightrope act be sustained?  I doubt it.  

[ Parent ]
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