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Morning Political Roundup for April 27th, 2012

by: Daniel Surman

Fri Apr 27, 2012 at 09:21:56 AM EDT


President- General

Arizona: Behavior Research Center- Obama 42% Romney 40%

National: YouGuv- Romney 47% Obama 46%

President- Primary

Paul: Rep. Ron Paul continues his campaign in Texas, even with little chance of victory there in his home state.

Nevada: Will the state convention devolve into chaos like in 2008? Probably not. Paul supporters are more organized in Nevada this time around. While Romney's campaign has mailed delegates asking them to unite at the state convention, there is no reason Paul's organization can't take over in an orderly fashion this time.

Veepstakes

Ryan: Paul Ryan recently delivered a very prominent speech attaching his plan to Catholic principles. Even though there was some pushback from Catholic groups, Ryan has also received prais for the speech.

Petraeus: Foreign Policy magazine argues David Petraeus should be Romney's running mate. 

Florida: Senator Marco Rubio is pushing his own version of the DREAM Act, further positioning him to attract support outside of traditional Republican constituencies.

Senate

Ohio: Last week Josh Mandel finally bought some airtime. Now his oppoentn, Senator Sherrod Brown (D), has announced a $150k ad buy, smaller than Mandel's.

Indiana: Cantor's Young Guns Network is supporting Senator Lugar to the tune of $100k in mailers. The group also plans to be active with the Messer campaign in IN-06.

House

NH-01/NH-02: UNH Survey Center- 44 Shea-Porter 39 Guinta; Kuster 40 Bass 39

CA-52: The PCCC has endorsed former State Assemblywoman Lori Saldana in her Democratic primary with San Diego Port Commission Chairman Scott Peters.  Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) awaits the Democratic challenger in this San Diego district.

Governor

North Carolina: Civitas- Dalton 32 Etheridge 27 Faison 4. 27% are  undecided.

Redistricting

New York: An analysis of congressional redistricting in New York that many of our commenters found lacking. The article breaks it down race by race and provides ratings of each.

Miscellaneous

Wisconsin State Senate: The RSLC is airing an attack ad targeting State Rep. Kristen Dexter (D), who  is challenging State Senator Terry Moulton. The buy is sizable, $245k.

Daniel Surman :: Morning Political Roundup for April 27th, 2012
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Morning Political Roundup for April 27th, 2012 | 144 comments
Dalton and Etheridge
are looking likely to be in a runoff as neither gets to 40%.

I suspect Etheridge wins that but that's a guess on my part. So many D's in my opinion are fighting for so little.  

NC
Fighting for the Governor nomination of a large state is nothing so little regardless of how likely McCrory is to win.

That being said I agree a runoff is likely.  I think Dalton is likely to win however.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
You could be right
about NC but geography is so often destiny in that state.

There are two big pluses for Etheridge.

1st the eastern NC is larger then western NC.

2nd the eastern part of NC is more heavily D then the western part so in a D primary the tilt is even more eastward.  

[ Parent ]
I think Dalton will pull this out ultimately.
He will win across the mountains and Charlotte and Greensboro.

Etheridge around Raleigh and the coast.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    

[ Parent ]
I can not claim
to have a sense as to how the liberals and AA voters in the middle and west will come down.  I have a thought that Etheridge will do better in the east, relative to Dalton's performance in the west, due to this reason.  

Not that I am rooting for Bobbie as Dalton IMO is the weaker candidate.  

[ Parent ]
Etheridge will get the Liberals
AA's could go either way. I'm thinking it'll be lean Dalton.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Rom 8:38-39    
[ Parent ]
Dem Primary
I highly doubt there will be a runoff. For there to be one, Bill Faison would need to be polling at a much higher level. Since, he, along with Dalton and Etheridge are the only credible candidates based on money raised and being invited to debates, all three would need to get at least around 15% to force a runoff. In polls, Faison barely eclipses the unheralded candidates and gets about 5%. Dalton and Etheridge will each garner at least 20% of the vote. I predict Dalton will win with between 40 and 50 percent. Etheridge's floor is probably 20% and his ceiling might be the upper 30's. Dalton's money advantage that has translated into an abundance of TV ads should make the difference and the latest PPP poll shows him with a lot of momentum.

McCrory would definitely do better against Etheridge. With Etheridge's "Who are you?" moment, his slowness to give positions on issues, his age, and his campaign's almost exclusive focus on education, he's definitely the weaker candidate. Dalton can raise more money, is younger than Etheridge, and represented a Republican leaning district as a state senator. Regardless of the opponent, McCrory most likely wins by at least high single digits.

[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
AZ-Prez: Lol

National-Prez: I still don't like internet polls, evn if they show my guy up.

Nevada Covention: Why am I not surprised?

Ryan: I like that kind of thinking, but I still think that we need Ryan where he is.

IN-Sen: We're spending too much money in this race. I almost regret this venture.

NC-Gov: I still think that Etheridge has the edge. He has appeal to the rural Democrats, especially in Eastern NC, and he's known in the Triangle already.

WI-SS: Aren't we up in this seat? Shouldn't we be using this money in SD-21.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

That YouGov poll has Condi and Marco leading the veep pack
I supremely doubt she winds up the pick, but I'm also not convinced her selection would fatally irk social conservatives.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
You don't think
A Presidential nominee they already don't trust plus a VP who is outright pro-choice wouldn't irk a decent amount of social conservatives enough to stay home?

I think it would hurt them enough to not fully consider her.  I think you can take the Bush risk with Portman as he wasn't prominent like Condi, but I think that also hurts Condi.  I can't see them going with her.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
can anyone remember
When whichever politician would have been leading public VP polls has ever been chosen?  Maybe Edwards in '04, but the VP decision is usually too personal to be the most popular pick.
[ Parent ]
without looking at polls
I would imagine H.W. Bush in 80, Johnson in 60. Probably Edwards in 04, and Fire was on the short list in peoples minds in 92. So it ain't a "never"

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Gore, not Fire
Stupid autocorrect

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
I feel your computer-generated pain.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
i did use the word "usually"
Not "never"
[ Parent ]
And Edwards was a terrible pick
Made Kerry look like a lot of people's second choice, was not on message, was plotting for 2008.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Biden in 2008
He wasn't the top pick in the polls (Hillary was), but he was that year's Portman: the insider-y pick that all the pundits had in the top 3 of their Veepstakes.
[ Parent ]
CA-52
Brian Bilbray isn't waiting for anything. He's running June 5 with two tea party challengers. Top two means he has to work for his votes. He can't coast.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
Still Nothing From Stahl or Iverson(?) On My End...
Currently, I'm actually seeing a lot more heat from the Republican running for the city council seat in the (likely futile) attempt to beat the Dem who barely squeaked in there in 2008.

I doesn't strike me like either of these guys is seriously challenging Bilbray - there's less than 2 months to go, and I'm exactly the kind of voter these guys should be targeting if they wanted to have a prayer of advancing.

Now granted, I haven't heard anything from Bilbray either, but he's the incumbent who he doesn't have to 'work it' like the challenges should be doing.  

[ Parent ]
Top two
The FEC report shows Stahl has raised $21k from individuals and put $600k of his own money into the campaign. Iverson has put only $79k of his own into his campaign. I'd imagine you'll start seeing things in the next 2-3 weeks.

I'm not saying either of these will take enough votes from Rep. Bilbray, so that the congressman doesn't make top two. I'm saying that when someone has tea party support, money, and is attacking from the right, he's dangerous.

Peters and Saldaña could take close to 50% of the vote between them. If they finish at 25% and 23%, Iverson, Stahl, and Jack Doyle just need to combine for around 30% of the vote.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
An Extremely Unlikely Scenario
From the impression I'm getting, Peters will probably beat Saldana about 2-to-1 among Dem voters. So it's more likely to be 33% Peters/16% Saldana.

On the GOP end, I'll be surprised if either Stahl or Iverson crack 15%. Bilbray should crack 30% easy. I bet, in the end, he pulls around 40% in the 'jungle', and could possibly do even better still.  

[ Parent ]
No one knows with top two
I know you think Peters is better but Saldaña was more liked in the SurveyUSA poll and she's racked up impressive endorsements. For Bilbray to pull 40%, he'll have to get almost all the non-Democratic votes. That's unlikely. This is how I see it:

Bilbray 31%
Saldaña 24%
Peters 23%
Stahl 9%
Doyle 5%
Iverson 3%
2R, 1D, 1 NPP 5%

Establishment types aren't well liked right now. Keep in mind that the anti-incumbent primary PAC is likely to go after Bilbray. He's more Bonner than Schmidt but this is a situation where they don't have to get Stahl enough votes to beat him. they need to take enough votes from Bilbray. I think I understand top two, but no one really does. People are going to misread it and lose.

I think he'll crack 30%, but I've been wrong before. If he doesn't go all out, there's a danger he doesn't make it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Young Guns for Lugar?
Cantor's Young Guns Network is supporting Senator Lugar to the tune of $100k in mailers.

Bahaha. There's some wonderful irony in that.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
If The "Irony" Is...
...That it causes me to trust Cantor even less than I did, then, yeah.  
[ Parent ]
If I was a GOP member of Congress I would be more upset over this
than Cantor taking sides in the whole Kinzinger vs Manzullo thing. In that race Cantor sided with a close ally vs a guy he obviously has had a beef with. Cantor was sending a message with that endorsement and the gamble worked. Come 2013 Manzullo will be a lobbyist while Congeressman Kinzinger will owe Cantor big time. As for the Lugar race WTF? Why is he throwing away $100k that could be used to help elect another GOP congressman to a Senate GOP primary that has nothing to due with Cantor. If I'm a GOP congressman in a tough race I would be like WTF!
[ Parent ]
NC-Gov: New Bob Etheridge ad
it's basically a rehash of his previous ad with some new visuals and slight changes...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Expect to see this same ad rehashed a lot by the way given his basically single-issue campaign of restoring school funding.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

IL-13; Johnson no longer for Clarke
http://capitolfax.com/2012/04/...

I hope Erika Harold gets the nod, as her popularity would trump the dark cloud that is forming over this race. Plus, the fact that she seems adequately conservative for this seat, in addition to adding a second black woman to the GOP caucus - and easily the hottest person in congress would be tremendous in reaching out to non traditional GOP voters.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Harold
I would usually say you're being ridiculous but she has a Harvard law degree and deep ties to the district and is quite smart. She could be a decent pick.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Why would it usually be ridiculous?


28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
He's anti-minority outreach
or something like that. He's saying that normally it'd be ridiculous to get a black woman just because she's a black woman, but she's "actually got qualifications" in his mind.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
Well
For me, diversity is secondary to philosophy. I prefer a small government conservative regardless of what background they have and only when the differences are on the margins will I move to my secondary preferences.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Speak for yourself, dude.
1) I have never even seen a picture of her. I just know she's a former Miss America and is a Harvard Law grad and worked for IL GOPers. I've heard good things.
2) I'd "usually say [he's] ridiculous" because he seems to think that the main reason to recruit her is her being super attractive (which google images confirms). She's also quite smart and accomplished, so she's not a bad pick. I'd just prefer a State Rep or Senator who has run before.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
BTW
I'm not trying to be hostile. I'm just saying that you should let me answer questions when they're asked of me because your guess was remarkably off. I didn't even know she was a minority, FWIW. And just FYI, I'm all for minority recruitment but it shouldn't be the cornerstone of the recruitment of a candidate and a candidate's race, religion, ethnicity, etc. don't make me pick a candidate over another candidate. Policy views primarily and charisma secondarily (along with things like fundraising abilities and higher office capacity) help me pick the candidates I support.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Whoops
I skimmed AAS's comment and didn't see "second black woman." Now I can see why you reacted as you did.

Again, I'm all for diversity in the party, I just don't think it should be used to discriminate against any candidate that is, well, white. Diversity is a plus but shouldn't be a deciding factor, IMO. I stand by that candidates should be judged by their beliefs, experiences, merits, and charisma, but I agree with you that developing a diverse party would make the GOP look better to some people who currently think that it's a racist party for "white men only."

Heh, let's not start this argument again but I'm just clarifying this whole misconception.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
a small way to look differently at the situation
The only reason I am personally more impressed with any individual who is Conservative "against the tide" of their group (Women, young people, minorities) is because they've taken the more difficult position.  Many in the media and within their groups are telling them that if they "Just blindly support Democrats, everything will be great for them.  Just keep doing it.  Just keep voting D and your problems will go away.  We'll give you what you need.  Republicans are scary.  They hate you.  They have a 'War on (you)'...Don't listen to them, they're lying..."  It's a very intoxicating premise.  Who among us might not fall into that trap?  So when I see intelligent people from groups that would otherwise be on the front lines of that type of hyperbole, and they have pushed it back by opening their minds to all political arguments, I have to say that I do give them slightly more weight as a candidate and as an individual.  It might not seem fair, but I can't help it.
[ Parent ]
A wonderful point
and one I happen to agree with.  Pro life women or  conservative AA or Hispanics already pay a personal price in many ways.  They step out of the crowd and many times isolate themselves from their natural peer groups.  

I never advocate candidates for affirmative action reasons-just do because of race or religion or sex.  Miss Harold clearly, however, was Phi Beta Kappa at Urbana and later Harvard Law.  She might be too smart for Congress based on some members I could name. In the district next to IL13 Ms Bustos has her four years of expirience on the East Moline city council so her resume is certainly in line with others from that state.  

[ Parent ]
But how likely
is she to be chosen by the chairmen if she chooses to run?

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
Erika is smoking
hot, and I second this motion. I don't care if it's sexist to say I want a hot chick representing our state. Women already have Schock and Kinzinger. She should help with the U of I and ISU student votes as well.  

26, IL-7,Fiscal Conservative
[ Parent ]
Miss Americans
So we got a former Miss American running for congress on our side. She one of the two miss american that have been in the news as of lates.The other one is last year winner RimaFakih look like she going to join the WWE sooner or later

29, Male,NH, Conservative Republican , NH-CD02
You got stand for something or you will fall for anything"
Aaron Tippin
[ Parent ]
Well
In fairness to her she's self made. I have more respect for a woman like her who made her own way in life through ambition, hard-word and yes her looks than some current member of the republican caucus like Ben Quayle.

She put her neck out to push forward some conservative ideas and as Aaron Schock will tell you, being young and good looking doesn't stop you being a good congressman.  

20, Thatcherite,  

[ Parent ]
This would be spectacular
but would the 14 chairman pick her? And how republican is the district?  

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
D+1 Cook PVI.
Probably a bit inflated because of Obama's home-state bounce, but not wildly so.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Florida GOP senate plan is upheld
Good
Safe majority map.
A veto-proof map can't be gerrymandered even without FDF, so it's only on the margins.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
They
combined Gainesville with the Jax burbs to make that seat safe R.  I'm worried about the St Pete seats and the Palm Beach seats.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY
[ Parent ]
TX Voter ID
This week, there has been some intense debate between the state and the DoJ about the trial date. These documents also go to show how much bad blood there is between the parties at this point, given that the administration and the TX Dems are fighting the state on basically everything.

http://txredistricting.org/pos...
http://txredistricting.org/pos...
http://txredistricting.org/pos...
http://txredistricting.org/pos...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Voter Suppression(!1!!1!!)
The TX Legislative Republicans should mock the Democrats by introducing a bill to repeal the necessity of having an ID to buy alcohol, tobacco, to play the lottery, to get into a casino, etc. and then actually debating it, tongue in cheek.  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Haha
Why stop there, why not also repeal the necessity of having a driver's license, concealed handgun license, etc? I mean, these are all forms of ID, and in the case of driver's licenses clearly discriminate against the elderly and the young. /endsnark

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Obama's war on GOP donors
These are the same people who tell us how bad Nixon was...

http://online.wsj.com/article/...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

These are horrible terrible people whose companies you should boycott
... Unless they donate to Barack Obama. Then all that shipping jobs overseas and putting Americans out of work is ok.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/po...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
AZ poll
LOL! Some pollsters are hilarious.
Who the heck is the Behavior Research Center anyway?
Not exactly a well-known polling organization.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
They're been around
But they are limited to the mountain west.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
And, IIRC, Their Track Record Is Terrible (nt)

[ Parent ]
I've never heard of them
What races did they blow?
[ Parent ]
I've never heard of them
What races did they blow?
[ Parent ]
Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren release tax returns
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

The tax returns are out. I think this is an issue that can last for the election. Elizabeth Warren has based her campaign on how she stands with the 99%. Yet, she's clearly in the top 1% and has been for years. She doesn't voluntarily pay the higher rate, opening her up for an attack:

"You're for higher taxes, as long as you don't have to pay them."
"You don't oppose all the 1%, just the ones who are Republicans."

When someone makes that kind of money there are liable to be investments in companies the 99% objects to and if it's guilt by association.

http://www.nationalreview.com/...  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Schumer predicts victory
Chuck is at it again. Fresh off his April 2009 prediction that Democrats would pick up seats in the senate, he's predicting another year just like that one he though that one would be.

http://thehill.com/homenews/ca...

In all fairness to Schumer, I'm sure he's being honest. The Democratic mindset is defined by Harry Reid, "I don't see why anyone would vote Republican." When you believe that 100% of people should vote for you, it's difficult to your candidates not getting 51%

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

NY Senate map precleared
So the DOJ only bothered with TX.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Actually only the DOJ opinion
Regarding the 63rd seat.
There is still a court case.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
GDP analysis
from Marketwatch is as follows:

http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

Top reasons this report is lousy

1st the direction has changed-from 3% 4th 2011 qtr to 2.2% 1st qtr 2012. That's not a good direction to be heading in.

2nd It could have been worse but businesses built up inventory. 1/4 of 2.2% growth came from inventory buildup.  Google up P&G or Kellogg business news.  Demand for their products is done and their attempts at raising prices has failed as demand is weak. So I look for inventory cuts and slower GDP growth.

3rd personal income has been weak even with  1.8 million new jobs???  How can that be?  We are seeing hundreds of thousands of new jobs each month but personal income is nearly flat? Yup total personal income is nearly flat with all those new jobs.  Well the new jobs are paying less then the old jobs that are still be lost so personal income is flat.  

4th the one saving grace in this report was that consumers spent a bit more.  They had to borrow or save less but they did.  Will this trend continue?  I for one do not think so.  So stay tuned?

One might wonder why the stock market has been up if GDP signaling a slower growth environment.  The simple answer is that the 1% of America, like Elizabeth Warren, will likely see higher corporate earnings.  Slower growth means no interest rate hikes and that is great for the investing class.  So no weak economic growth means that rates stay low and that a 3% dividend for Exxon or ATT props those stocks up. I note that now the Fed is talking about higher rates in 2014!!!!  

Good points
I was talking to a banker today and she informed me they are expecting interest rates to remain at their historic lows for at least another 18 months.  This was after I asked her if I could get a better savings rate with CDs or a money market account seeing savings accounts are getting you nothing these days.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
You have to give the Obama administration their due
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

No matter what any economic numbers say they are out there patting themselves on the back, telling the media what a great job they did.

These guys have been in re-election mode since 1/20/09. Looking good is more important than doing good.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Maybe more than in the past,
but remember that Just about every campaign wants to look good so that they can be successful, but their guy in office, then do what they consider to be 'good things' with the power that has been bestowed.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
They aren't the first
But it seems like everything they do is designed to make them look good. I've read some of the Solyndra emails and the most important consideration every step was how it'd impact Obama's re-election.

The White House is reportedly going to veto Marco Rubio's Dream Act if it gets there, because they don't want Republicans to score any points with Latinos. The Republicans have controlled the House for a year and a half. Obama could work in the areas they agree on or do horse trading. Yet he's invested in the "do nothing congress" narrative. And that means that Republican bills never get brought up in the senate.

Tom Coburn has said for years if you do a good job, people will respect you, and you'll get re-elected. The Obama administration never subscribed to that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Ryan great example
as to why the 1% are the 1%.

Most people have access only to miserable CDs or Money market accounts.

I earned less then a dollar last month on a 5 figure money market account.  The bank that holds my account, Wells Fargo, has +70 billion in money market accounts.  You can make a lot of money paying out .001% interest when you earn 4% in bonds.  

Richer folks can pay 6 or 7% bonds or preferred stocks and either live off the income or borrow on margin if a big need comes up.  Its the classic takes money to make money scenerio.  Many seniors are getting 1% on CDs.  Ouch.  

It goes against logic but if the economy was booming by creating 400K a month in real good jobs.  The fear of interest rate increases would slam the stock market.  I think rates stay low for 18 months or maybe if we get a relief rally with a Romney win.  

I told my wife today that if Mitt wins we are spending like crazy to stimulate the economy.  Until then we putting our money in jars in the back yard.  

[ Parent ]
Very few people by themselves can move the economy
Basically unless your a billionare one person going from spending 0% of their income to 10000% of their income won't move the national economy at all.

Also, almost every American is in the top 1% (of the world)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Not really
Remember that the US is about 4.5% of the Global population (310 Million out of 7 Billion), but we're almost entirely in the top 10-15%.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
YouGov
Is it me or is that a Democratic friendly sample and Obama is still losing?

27, Republican, PA-6
YouGov Poll
It does look Dem-leaning, but there were quite a few questions asks before the Romney v. Obama question that could voters toward Romney.  The GSA and Secretive service scandals would reflect poorly on the President and might shift opinions.

33, R, IN-09
[ Parent ]
ND-Sen: Democratic-NPL internal has Heitkamp up 5.
Prior to this we have only had one poll, a Democratic internal (for the DSCC) that had Heitkamp up 5 points (47-42). That poll was never answered with a poll of Berg's own. The state party now has a new poll from DFM research that has Heitkamp up 5 again, this time 49-44. And that's enough for the DSCC to hit the air with their first ad buy, for $76K: Link

Obama trails Romney 51-32 in this same poll.

Major h/t to Daivd Nir who pointed out that the Berg campaign did pay Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies $24K for a survey in January. I don't think it's a coincidence that we haven't seen the results of that poll: Link

We'll see if this poll goes unanswered as well.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Worth noting
Crossroads is also up with a $75K buy in ND.

No link, the details of how Crossroads's giant ad buy was divided up were revealed in a email from the DSCC which is where I'm getting that $75K figure.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
I've always said
That Heitkamp's shouldn't be discounted. I still think that she'll lose, but she's far from a Some Dude.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
So David Nir
knows how Berg spent his 24K? I would love to see his proof. You can see from disclosure reports who was paid what but firms like POS are paid for more then just polls.  POS does focus group work, campaign consulting and other work.

This is what is called wishful thinking on KOS's part.  Thankfully I do not have check out KOS very much because the pointless internal polls that get peddled to them get posted here by others.  

[ Parent ]
Given that
the other Dem internal was from late December and that money was paid at the beginning of January, and this is their only transaction with Public Opinion Strategies, I have to say that it looks to me like it's you who's trying to engage in a little wishful thinking. If you want to take the frankly bizarre stance of ignoring all internal polling from now on (why?) I guess I can't complain but expect to be held to that from now until November.

And the snide jab at the DKE/SSP community is not appreciated, I'm pretty sure BostonPatriot said hating on DKE here was not allowed.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
How many internal polls has
Tommy Thompson released?
How many have George Allen released?
How many has Mandel released?
How many has been released from MO candidates?
How many from Connie Mack?
How many from Scott Brown?

I know this is a shock to you but the Heitkamp campaign is trying to drive the narrative that they are close in ND.  The KOS big cheese has taken the bait and so apparently has many of his readers.  

Every major senate candidate polls but how many have released internal senate polls?

So now because someone has released an internal poll, read phony poll, now you are buying David Nir's line that since Berg is not releasing internal poll numbers he might be runnning scared or nervous or closer then expected or whatever?

Berg's campaign is only doing what +95% of all campaigns do.  They don't release internal polling data.  

I might add 24K would likely buy 10 or so statewide polls in ND. So please call David Nir and tell him he can say "Berg's campaign has perhaps a dozen internal polls that they refuse to release".  Silly.  I think its silly to suggest that because Berg like every other major senate candidate is not releasing internal polls things are doing just fine.  In fact he does not have to drive the narrative like Heitkamp.  I am thinking Bob Kerry will be releasing internal poll numbers soon.    

[ Parent ]
Wrong.
Of course she's trying to set that narrative, every candidate everywhere is. I can't believe you're really the political virgin you're trying to play right now, when you're opponent shows you trailing in internal polling you release a poll of your own to contradict the narrative. The reason why many senate candidates do not release internals is because public polling companies stop by potentially competitive races often and no donor or pundit will believe a candidates internal over independent polling, internal polling is mainly the dominion of house candidates, because pollsters frequently do not poll individual house races. Robopolling is not legal in ND, there is no polling here and that is why candidates release internals in races like this.

And in races, where internals are released it is common and necessary campaign strategy to release an internal poll of your own with you up to counteract that narrative, if you don't it is indicative of a losing campaign. Donors might become scared and send resources elsewhere, national groups will doubt your viability. We saw this just the other day in FL-26, Fitzgerald had an old internal out in hours contradicting Buchanan's poll and trying to preserve the narrative the race was competitive. No one here at RRH objected to any of this when it was contended Lugar's large expenditures on multiple internal polls must have shown he was losing because he never responded to the now frequently-released polls showing Mourdock in the lead. I have consistently held that internal polling is probably biased several points in a candidates favor but it is largely accurate and can be taken as a good indicator of the state of a race where there is no outside polling. I am simply holding to the same opinion I have always held when I say Heitkamp is clearly competitive in this race.  

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
Polling
I have to agree. Most candidates don't release their own polls in response to their opponent's polls. It strikes of me too.

"I'm leading!"
"No I am!"

It happens, but not often. The Democrats have a reason to release a poll. The Republicans don't.

If I were involved in polling for a campaign, I really wouldn't care what the bottom line poll number was. I'd want to know where in the district/state are we weak. where are we strong? Why? Are we doing well or poorly with a certain demographic group? Who are the most undecideds and why. How is the candidate perceived? What message helps with with people he doesn't do well with?

I like focus groups, because you know the person is who they say they are and they're willing to give you a lot more time. And you can certainly get a lot more information.

You release a poll if you want donors/volunteers/supporters to know you can win. This is frequently done by campaigns that are thought to be too far behind to worry about. You do so to keep opponents and money out of your race. If the opponent is down 23, why bother?

The recent CA-2 poll had an obvious motivation. The 2nd place finisher only needs to get in the low 20's. Yet there are a lot of candidates. So Solomon needs to convince people he can get there if they help.

What does Berg have to gain by releasing a poll? Her poll confirms that his supporters should work hard on his behalf and that he needs money.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Setsuna
You are on warning for lecturing a moderator. It will not be tolerated here.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
The snide jab at the DKE/SSP community is not appreciated?
Who in the world do you think you are? You know what I don't appreciate? People from the other side who are guests here lecturing US on how our site should be. It takes A LOT of hubris and arrogance it takes to engage in that. Again-who do you think you are?

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
Setsuna.
That's why I chose it as my ID... ? And you're GoBigRedState.

OK, now I'm really sorry and realize I'm out of bounds, I couldn't resist, I'll abandon this whole thread after this comment. I'm really pushing the number of snarky replies I can get away with here, I apologize for this. I haven't been getting a ton of sleep lately.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
If it makes you feel any better
I enjoyed reading your snark! Bottom line here is that Heitkamp is the best candidate the Dems could hope for and its super smart of her campaign to put out any poll (even a BS one) that shows her competitive. It's still a really uphill climb for her especially when her own juiced poll shows the top of her ticket down by close to 20 points! But to have a chance, to raise money she needs to sell her electability thats what this poll does and thats why I'm sure Dems want to hype it up as much as possible.
[ Parent ]
This is how we know
The poll is bunk or they used message-testing. Because there is no way that Hritkamp is overperforming Obama by a freaking 24!! points.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
And undecideds
Why on earth are there 17% undecided in the Presidential race and 7% undecided in the Senate race???

Anyone - have you ever met a single person who was certain about their vote for senator but undecided about their vote for president???

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Yeah sure
This is just ridiculous.

Also, how often do frontrunners release internal polls? It's the underdogs most often that try to pretend that the race is competitive when no public pollster can poll there to debunk them. This poll has all the marks of being cooked.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Brilliant logic
If you're really winning you shouldn't be leading in your own internals?

So by this same logic that only candidates that are really losing release internals in which they're leading you'll agree that Buchanan is actually trailing Fitzgerald (why would he put out a poll with him in the lead in a district where no one is planning to poll! How fishy! It must be cooked!) and Mourdock is trailing in IN, and so on so forth et. al, correct?

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
Besides
D internal polls had an atrocious record in the last election in 2010.
Most polls were off by at least 10 points.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
So to be clear
you're saying only Democratic internals are untrustworthy?

The reason why Republican internals has a better record in '10 is because 2010 was an overwhelmingly Republican year so the biasing of the samples ended up being fairly close to the actual electorate. In 2008 I'm sure I could show you that Democratic internals were much more accurate.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
You ignored my message above
and continued with another reply to rdelbov, and further here. Your contempt is noted.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Now wait a second.
I'm no fan of Set's politics, but MosheM isn't a moderator, and he was just talking about polling in this last one, not lecturing anyone on site procedure.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Son of the South
As a moderator I am a making a decision. You are out of bounds questioning my decision on any moderating I make on RRH.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Sorry
It seemed more like an assertion than a decision of action.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
A member was banned for ganging up on a moderator
a few weeks ago. It will not be tolerated from here on.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Sounds pretty Orwellian to me n/t

[ Parent ]
Please don't pile on like this
Listen folks: I hate moderating comments. You guys are all adults (or near-adults) and I always feel like an awkward middle school teacher or something when I tell people what they are and aren't allowed to say. But in order to maintain the strong, civil community we have here at RRH, there needs to be a set of rules, or else we would have the flame wars that dominate the comments of so many other political blogs. And there's no point in having rules if they can't be enforced without the support of the community.

And there's one other difference between this and Orwell: it's a huge internet and there's no one forcing anyone to comment here. People are welcome to comment so long as they're willing to be civil and respectful and follow the rules, and if they can't then there are plenty of other blogs out there.

[ Parent ]
Understood.
I understand and respect the need for the system. The problem was confusion about the site rules that you speak of, and that I and others hold dear. They keep us from being a flaming sewer. Thank you for the tough job that you do.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
TX32GOP
You can like the rules here or not.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I thought you meant lecture him on site rules.
I wasn't clear you meant the entire discussion (I had lectured him not to bash on DKE/SSP as I'd forgotten he was a moderator)

And if you are saying anything is wrong with my replies here, then yes, I'd like to make perfectly clear I hold nothing but contempt. What's the point of having a multi-partisan sight if you're going to object to a civil debate on the merits of internal polling, simply because I'm coming down in favor of a Democratic candidate? Are all posts that suggest anything but that the Republican is crushing now banned? Since when?

If I'm going to be banned from objecting, in a non-partisan merits based manner, when I hear something I think is clearly wrong, that is posted as a reply to my comment, then you might as well ban me. I can read the site, if I'm not going to be permitted to engage in anything with my perspective, without an account. What's the point in having one if I can't use it?

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
Democratic released public internals
They were do desperate to prove a lead. Real internals showed the whole calamity that happen on Election Night.
[ Parent ]
I don't think that it's necessarily cooked,
unless you consider all internals to be 'cooked,' meaning 'manufactured.' The poll might be very optimistic, but remember that the last name 'Heitkamp' is very familiar and comfortable in ND.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yep, even released internals are not "cooked"
(i.e. numbers made completely up). They might be after message testing, but they aren't just cooked up.
[ Parent ]
in an internal poll
I generally assign every vote that the candidate doesn't get to their opponent.

So if it were Election Day today I'd predict a 53-47 race.  So it's Lean R, but definitely winnable.  I can buy that.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Eh...
I could see a 53-47 outcome if the race we're held RIGHT NOW.

I doubt it'll be any less than 55-45 by November though.  

[ Parent ]
I think it depends on the campaign
ND still has a popular Democratic Senator (two if you count the retired Dorgan), and Berg appears unpopular from what little polling I've seen.

If Heitkamp positions herself as a populist who will defend the Second Amendment vigorously, she's got a path to victory depending on the campaign.

On the other hand, Berg has run and won a campaign against a popular official (Pomeroy), so he gets points for that.

What's Heitkamp's position on abortion?  Does anybody know?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Berg unpopular?
The only figures I can find are from a Democratic poll(which appears to be cited repeatedly by numerous left-wing and Democratic websites). Give me a non-partisan poll and I'll believe it.  

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
well I qualified it with
"appears unpopular" and "what little polling I've seen."

However, until there is either a Republican or non-partisan poll (stupid robopolling laws!), then the Democratic poll is all we have.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
ND is very red
This is a state where Republicans have over 2/3 of the senators and legislators. So we'll be skeptical when a Republican is down in a poll.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
But they like their local Dems
its sort of like parts of the South in that while the state itself is Republican, there is still a breed of Democrats that plays well there (Conrad and Dorgan being good examples).  Democrats held all 3 of the Congressional seats from 1992 till 2010 after all.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
"3 Congressional"
Meaning the house seat and both Senate seats

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
If they liked their local Dems
They'd vote for them to be in the legislature. This isn't Mississippi, a state that first turned red at a Presidential level, only later to follow at a congressional, and legislative level. While the Democrats have done better than are doing now, they've never been popular like the Democrats in Mississippi.

Yes, they held all three seats, but all 3 were held by the same people for 20+ years. So it's not like Democrats were winning elections with multiple candidates. Popular incumbents can win despite their party's lack of popularity. I don't know if Heidi is one of them who can.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Berg will likely end up winning
But, Kelly Schmidt should have ran, as she would have put this seat away much sooner. Berg should have just stayed in the House.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Want to know this is competitive?
The Democrats have an ad buy here...
[ Parent ]
Blue Collar Dems upset with Obama
http://washingtonexaminer.com/...

Going for 1/3 of the white vote.

27, Republican, PA-6

These stories are almost daily now.
I will say, though that there are some blue-collar Dem strongholds left to be breached. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre comes to mind, as do Youngstown, Akron (NEOH in general), some counties in WI, MI, and MN, as well as large swaths of MA and ME.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Also the South Side of Chicago comes to mind.
Strongly blue-collar, working-class Dem stronghold that Republicans have yet to breach.

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
Pittsburgh
The PA-14 portion of Allegheny County comes to mind as well.  Most of our gains in that county have been due to suburban areas.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
MI - Downriver, Southern Macomb, and Bay City
The Southern Wayne County suburbs (often range from 52-60% dem), Southern Macomb County (60-40 outside of 52-48 St Clair Shores), and Bay City (60-40).

Inroads have been made across the board in the UP outside of Marquette. We're making gains in Alpena, Bay County outside of the city, St Clair Shores, and even the far part of Downriver. We were close in a Genesee County (Flint suburbs) district that's been dem for years. We held the dems to 53% in a normally 60% downriver district (either Southgate or Wyandotte or both).

Obama doesn't have much blue collar appeal if any. The trouble is neither does Romney, although Snyder who is similar in style did win those areas.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
I'll be attending Northeastern in the fall
Elizabeth Warren, you're going down.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
We shot hoops with Senator Brown today in Hyannis
The story de jour is that Warren claimed to be Native American to satisfy diversity appearances at Harvard.  She's getting mocked all afternoon on Boston radio...
[ Parent ]
link
[ Parent ]
Haha


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Warren
Hahahaha, this could cause her soooo many issues. She had to know what was going on.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
In Fairness
This is actually a major issue for the Cherokee. I have a friend whose brother got into Yale because that year being 1/8th was sufficient to gain the massive Affirmative Action bonus, but when it came time for him to apply they wanted 1/4th.

The whole thing is a joke, and if done at all should be done on a case by case basis based on personal statement.

If we actually inflicted penalties on being rejected from top schools like the UK does less zero chance applicants would crowd out the process and we could run all admissions based on interviews as Oxbridge does.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Congrats
Every new Brown voter helps!

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Welcome to the Hub!

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Rasmussen has Nelson up 11 over Mack (47-36).
14 over LeMieux (44-30). Their results are all over the place this cycle: Link

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
Yeah I just saw that
Mack has been completely underwhelming. I almost think Lemieux would be better.    

Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1


[ Parent ]
The Mack name
I think he's been underwhelming but even if they're both raising about the same amount of money I think the Mack name still holds more than a little political capital in FL. The only way LeMieux could be better is if Mack made some really bad public screw up and his negatives went up, then you'd just have to bet on LeMieux (who's still pretty much unknown) and hope he could define himself more positively (he was a Crist staffer, right? Hopefully he'd remember the keys to looking noncontroversial and centrist for the general, he seems to be trying to position himself as far-right and going hard negative, which I question the wiseness of as a strategy. I think he needs to realize that he's only going to be winning if Mack continues to fail like this and be positioning himself as more of a statesman, which means no more low blows in the primary). We're still pretty far away in my opinion from the day jumping ship for LeMieux would start looking good for Republicans though, LeMieux has not ran a good campaign either lets remember, and with a strong next quarter Mack could still bring his campaign back to life.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
I have to agree,
but Mack is leaning too heavily on the name. Nelson is no pushover.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
No
Mack is awful. But LeMieux would be terrible.

Sometimes, you just lose races on the candidates that turn up. This is just one of them.

It's a blown opportunity because Nelson was definitely beatable. But none of the Big Boys stood up. So this one's a loss. Time to move on to greener pastures...  

[ Parent ]
Obama's donors
Fascinating list of high tech, tenured professors, law firms, and employees of the Federal government.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pre...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

We're the good 1%
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

Like Elizabeth Warren union leaders are in the 1%. I'm sure they earn their money, but it's laughable how they go after the 1% and say that they aren't really among them.

We are totally transparent about what our officers are paid, and there's no comparison to CEOs who last year got paid $13 million on average, often while skimping on pay for their workers or slashing jobs and sitting on trillions of dollars in cash.

What's interesting about this quote is that this is the sort of thing I've heard from a few liberals. CEOs and management make so much money because they don't give their employees fair compensation. And they all must be cruelly laying people off event though they could keep people on with their huge profits. They all earn huge profits.

I've had people work for me who refuse to believe that my business won't make profits hand over fist. They don't understand that when they walk away with their meager check, I walk away with no check, and in fact have less than I started with.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Its one of the reason they Left didn't try to tie down a number before
Because plenty of the 1% Vote and Support Democrats.  When they were just saying "rich people", they could always point to someone richer than themselves and say "no, that rich".

Gallup even did a poll a while back that noticed that the 1% wasn't any more Conservative than the country at large.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
CA-39: Jay Chen Signs
As I was coming back from an NHS service project for Giving Children Hope I saw a decent amount of Jay Chen for Congress signs in Buena Park and La Habra. on the Street Corners and telephone poles.

As mentioned here before Chen is raising a respectable amount of money so he definitely has a presence here. Royce does not have any signs I have seen (then again I haven't been in Fullerton in the last couple weeks).

I don't expect Royce to lose at all, just notifying y'all of what's going on on the ground in the 39th.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

Let's see what happens in CA
with this jungle election in June.  In 1994 in WA the D's who slipped below 50% in the jungle lost in Nov.

I suspect we might see 7-8 incumbents fall below 50% in June 2012.  Feinstein has low approval numbers but he still polls high in one on one races.  I can see her getting 55% this June.  That likely means squat.

Royce could be below 50% and it might not be anything.  It could if we see R versus R GE's in some of these seats or D versus D.  

Not sure how this plays out but keep us informed.

[ Parent ]
I did a long analysis of Washington
They've had the jungle in 2008 and 2010 in both congressional and legislative races. I found that in races where there are only Republicans and Democrats, the November vote totals are within 2% over 60% of the time and within 4% 90% of the time. So if a party gets more than 54%, the race is most likely over.

Third party/independents change that dynamic, because you have two variables, the primary/general change and the third party voters. So a party could lose 47%-44% and then win with 52%. And there isn't a strong correlation for Libertarian votes to go to Republicans or Greens to Democrats. It's possible that some of these people stay home. So if Chad Condit pulls 5-10% in CA-10 you can't add that to the Democrats.

Royce is in a race with a Democrat, and an independent. This is a district Meg Whitman won 54%-38%, but I expect the independent to get less than 5% of the vote here. If Royce were to win 50%-45%, there's cause for concern. If it's 55%-40%, there isn't. If Royce were to be below 50%, there's a big reason for concern.

Other districts have more Republicans running. So if John Campbell's Tea Party challenger gets 10%, while he gets 48%, there's no reason to worry.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Royce's Opponents
Republican Congressman Ed Royce
Democratic Christina Avalos
Republican Anita Hynds
Democratic Jay Chen
NPP     D'Marie Mulattieri
https://docs.google.com/spread...

According to your spreadsheet of CA Congressional Candidates Royce has 2 D's (Chen and Avalos, the '10 nominee) an NPP (former organizer of Occupy Irvine), and another R (who, if this is the same Anita Hynds then she is a far-right winger)

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

[ Parent ]
Royce's Opponents
I don't know who that guy is, but his spreadsheet is clearly unreliable. Avalos and Hynds didn't make the ballot.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Spreadsheet problems
You linked to it from your diary on the qualified candidate and mentioned them as well..in the meantime I'm assuming you got the real candidates list from SoS Bowen?

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
From Sos
I'll update the spreadsheet later

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
(facepalm)
I now realize "i don't know who that guy is but his spreadsheet is unreliable" was a self-deprecating joke.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
[shakes head]
https://docs.google.com/spread...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Palin endorses Mourdock
Does she still matter in a GOP primary? I have to think there are voters who see her stamp of approval as proof that a candidate is conservative enough.
But those voters
are probably already in Mourdock's camp.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Morning Political Roundup for April 27th, 2012 | 144 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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