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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Afternoon Roundup for April 30th, 2012

by: rdelbov

Mon Apr 30, 2012 at 16:00:00 PM EDT


President

Newt: Apparently Gingrich will officially announce he is leaving the GOP Presidential race on Wednesday.  Last week the talk was that Tuesday would be the day but now it is Wednesday.  This announcement is beyond anti-climatic as it has been clear since Super Tuesday that Newt was not going to win the nomination.  One could argue that an early exit would have been a huge boost to Santorum, and yes, that could have been a race changing event.  Now Newt's exit is more about paperwork and layoffs than deciding who the nominee will be.

Senate

Arizona: GOP kingmaker Jim DeMint has endorsed Congressman Flake for the US Senate.  Flake does have a deep-pocketed primary foe so this certainly helps Flake in his nomination fight. The Congressman has both Tea Party and establishment support in his primary fight so conventional wisdom is that he should easily win the GOP nomination.

House 

Washington 6: This might be the last item you would think I would post on an afternoon update at the end of April. I posted this article so that we could welcome Derek Kilmer to Congress.  Oh yes, there is a fall primary and a November general election but I think it is all a formality. Kilmer announced for this seat as soon as Dicks decided to retire.  He has locked up the key endorsements, raised a good bit of money and will not encounter any formidable candidates from either his party or the GOP. Kilmer seems to be the type of candidate that, if he continues to work hard and keep his nose clean, will have a long career in Congress.  

Redistricting

Kansas: This state is back at the redistricting drawing board.  A Senate committee passed a plan that will protect Democrat and moderate Republican incumbents.  The GOP-controlled House has more or less decided to give up on trying to impact the Senate map. Congressional redistricting remains up in the air.  That is the conventional wisdom at least as of right now. The Senate as of now has not made any changes to an earlier Congressional map so it does not appear that its position has changed.

rdelbov :: Afternoon Roundup for April 30th, 2012
Tags: (All Tags)
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Gov Walker reports raising 13 million!!!!
More than 4 million cash on hand, Barrett raised $750,000.

Walker/Martinez 2016

Wow
Was that just for him, or for all the recalls + 2012 general elections?

Also, does that include the outside group's spending?

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
No that's just the first 3 months of 2012
and just his campaign.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
I rarely donate
But I made a contribution to Walker.  He joined Rand Paul as the only non-Minnesotan I have ever donated to politically.  This race is too important to lose.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
I did too. This effect all states
If Walker loses, we're going to hit a dead end here with government union reform in Michigan.

If Walker wins, we have a shot.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
That goes beyond TV ads.
I'm predicting massive GOTV efforts.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
WISGOP & Walker campaign
announced 1.5 million voter contacts since January

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Excellent.
I'm starting to feel a bit better about this race.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

[ Parent ]
Yes, and Walker raised 25 million
since November

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
He didn't get that much
In 2010.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
He beat his own record, and Wisconsin history
He spent $10 million in 2010

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Hopefully
Walker will keep his organization in tact for November.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
The amazing part
Walker's campaign added that it received 125,926 donations during the most recent fundraising period, which lasted from mid-January to April 23, 2012. Of those contributions, 76.4 percent received, or 96,292, totaled $50 or less.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

4.8 million on hand.

Walker really galvanized Rs.  

26, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Afternoon Thoughts
AZ-Sen: I don't think that there was ever any serious doubt that Flake's primary is a formality, and the GE is nearly so.

WA-06: The Peninsula likes having tenure in Congress.

Kansas Redistricting: Oy. This giving me a headache. Just pass the maps, then invade the county parties and throw the RINOs out in primaries.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


NY-Sen: Joe Dioguardi endorses Wendy Long
http://www.politicker.com/2012...

There's plenty of irony to spare here. DioGuardi, long loathed by the New York GOP rank-and-file, all but forced their hand after he secured the Conservative nod. Long, the least popular of the three GOP contenders among the party establishment (even Maragos at least has Skelos), obviously hopes to do the same.

I must admit, however, I've been supremely underwhelmed by Turner's candidacy and am now convinced Gillibrand will basically match her 2010 showing.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Turner
I also thought he'd be stronger. Will he even win the primary?  

[ Parent ]
I think so, though he's not an overwhelming favorite
I mean, Maragos, without a doubt, doesn't have a prayer. He should win Nassau, which typically casts roughly the most votes of any county in a NYS GOP primary, but I'd be stunned if he breaks 25 percent statewide. He might not even carry Suffolk. So there's that.

I think the $64,000 question is whether Long emerges the upstate favorite. All three candidates hail from downstate, but, from what I've seen thus far, Long's made the most aggressive push for the western NY vote. She nailed down the Erie County GOP Committee endorsement early on, which might suggest some strength there.

More than anything, I would think it's the $$$ factor that might hold Long back. Maragos says he's willing to dump $5 million of his own into the race and Turner seems well-connected enough to fundraise...though, in all fairness, we've yet to actually see that come to fruition.

You can bank on Turner winning all five NYC boroughs. Beyond that, I haven't a clue and I don't think any of the campaigns do, either. Turnout will be supremely low, which might help Turner, too. Right now, I think a 45-35-20 result is likeliest.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Ray Kelly: I'm "contemplating" a run for mayor
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Access Denied
Access Denied
We're sorry, but you are unauthorized to access this page.

Please return to the front page.

I got this message when trying to post a comment on jncaa's diary on the French elections. I guess it means the diary was closed to additional comments, right?  


yes; the bottom line at the page
"Time to post comments expired" where the reply button normally would have been.

That reply button right above would have been a response to gabjoh.  

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Noted.
Thank you. I didn't scroll all the way down, my bad.  

[ Parent ]
FL Congressional map
Great news!
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Good
A 'Texas situation' would have been bad in FL.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Yes this is great news from Florida
and as noted by myself and others its standard procedure.  Until a map is proved to violate the law it stays in place under if its a VRA V matter.  That is why VRA V is a pain as the state map is assumed to be incorrect until okayed.  

It is the oppisite of most of America's legal proceedings where you are presumed innocent until proven guilty.  

Mind you the Florida map is out completely out of the woods.  

There will likely be a trial and appeal and so forth but its likely to be in place for 2012.


[ Parent ]
Yep
If the judge thinks the map "was admittedly drawn to favor the Republican Party and incumbents" then he thinks it's in violation of FDF so it's definitely not out of the woods in the long run.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
His comment is about the old 2002 passed lines:
full quote:

Absent that, he said the result would be that the 2002 map would remain in effect -- a map, he said "was admittedly drawn to favor the Republican Party and incumbents."

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Ah, thanks!
So much for my reading comprehension.. I'm having a rough week!

Seriously sleep-deprived lately since I've had a 50 page book prospectus and a 40 page dissertation portfolio due for submission Wed & today.

I need to stay off the intertubes until I fully recover!

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Judge Lewis
was in an impossible situation as a single judge he could hardly decide to overturn a legislative map after 6 hours of arguements.  There has been numerous trials involving redistricting in the last decades and they often involve weeks or months of testimony and arguements.  Not to mention is scant precedence with the Fair act for a single judge to decide whether this map is legal or not.

I suspect there will be a trial and then an appeal to Supreme court over the summer or fall.  I think either way this hearing means this map is it for 2012 as a court ruling in the summer would mean seperate primaries and redoing precincts.  


[ Parent ]
I just got a Manan Trivedi fundraising email.
I have no clue how the campaign got my email address. I lol'ed really hard, though.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Democrats try to Mediscare Jesse Kelly
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

Shrug.

27, R, PA-07.


They did it last time too
The whole he's going to gut Medicare and Social Security. Of course they also distorted the Fair Tax.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I googled "Jesse Kelly Medicare"
in order to find an actual quote from him about it.  His campaign needs to get on their game; the top 5 hits are all pro-Barber  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
KS Redistricting: Ad Astra Is a Non-Starter
If the KS State Senate passes that again, the KS State House must vote it down at all costs.

I'd rather have a court-drawn map than that outrage.  


It sounds like the House will approve
from that article. Congressional map probably will be similar to that Owens Senate map from the other day.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I Didn't Get That From The Article At All
The House already voted down Al Astra once. Unless I missed it, there was nothing in the article that said the House had guaranteed to pass anything the Senate does.  

[ Parent ]
And There's Still Brownback, Who Might Veto (I Would) (nt)


[ Parent ]
Must have been the other article
said the House was unlikely to object to the Senate lines as is tradition.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
But They Already Did Once
Tradition has already been thrown out the window!

So unless there's a guarantee now that the KS House will pass their map, I'm not assuming they will.  


[ Parent ]
Betty White for Howard Berman
The Golden Girl does her thing in a Berman ad: http://atr.rollcall.com/califo...

I was rooting for Sherman here, but hey, if Berman's good enough for Betty...


Super PAC up with $500k
for Berman as well. Not a fan of Betty White.
http://atr.rollcall.com/califo...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Her Approval With Me Just Plummeted (nt)


[ Parent ]
Another Hollywood liberal.
Surprise! :p

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Well, when you're picking between two Hollywood liberals
You may as well go for the one Betty White likes. However, if George Clooney endorses Berman, that would be more than enough to drive me back to Sherman.

[ Parent ]
Tom Hanks
I love just about everything Tom Hanks is in. Cast Away, Forrest Gump, Big, Apollo 13, The Terminal, and a few others are some of my very favorites. I hope he's backing Sherman as I far prefer Sherman to Berman (although I prefer any R to both of them). It's a shame he's a liberal. . .

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Rubio on immigration
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Hispanics need to pressure Democrats, because it doesn't matter if this is an "election year" ploy. Something is better than nothing. And they've had nothing for years. There's nothing wrong with legal "resident alien" status. A lot of people already have that here and there are many countries where you can't get citizenship.

Of course, if you get something now, you're starting somewhere higher to get more later.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


PA primary advertisements
http://www.politicspa.com/the-...

Notice the 2005 pay raise is featured in 3 of the Republican primary ads!  The Pay Raise is still taking people down.

28, Republican, PA-6


Dear Kansas Legislators
Please just put Manhattan into the western Kansas congressional district. This splits the two universities up, which allows the Eastern Kansas congressional district to have Topeka and Lawrence in it without allowing a Democrat a chance to win the district. Make a Wichita based district and a KC based district and be done with it. Thank You  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

+1


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Amen to that n/t


19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
The Problem In Kansas Isn't The Congressional Map
Nearly all of the flavors of Congressional map are similar, and I'm not worried about us losing an R+7 vs. and R+8 KS-02.

The problem really is the State Senate map where a coalition of liberal Republicans and Democrats are trying to gerrymander themselves a permanent majority, despite the fact that this against the wishes of the vast majority of Kansas voters.

That's why the KS State House and Gov. Brownback need to hold firm on this.

The Congressional map is really 'Sideshow Bob' here, and a court drawn map is unlikely to look much different than any of the maps so far. (In fact, the courts are probably most likely to grant your wish about just moving Manhattan to KS-01...)  


[ Parent ]
state senate map
The senate map should maintain a moderate-dem majority even without the "Primary Protection Plan". Remember around JoCo is where the population is growing, not conservative Western KS.  

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
The Moderates
want districts whose primary electorate might pick a moderate. Yoder is safe in a primary, and that seat might elect a moderate if he moves up, so they have no problem making KS-03 a McCain seat. They want another shot, which means combining Lawrence, Topeka, and Manhattan.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
not true
Jenkins is the one who insisted that she represents the college towns.  

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
No
It's not like loading those 3 "cities" into one seat makes the Republican primary electorate significantly more moderate. . . those "city" voters are all registered partisan Democrats, anyway.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Registered partisan Democrats
Not in Topeka and Manhattan.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
MT-Sen: "Patriot Majority USA" PAC (D) is going on the air
with an attack ad against Rehberg:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

The buy is for $186K: Link

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Christie opens the door to the VP (again)
http://www.wtma.com/rssItem.as...

Chris Christie has said he's "not looking to become vice president," but the New Jersey governor said Monday  presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney might be able to convince him otherwise.

"He might be able to convince me. He's a convincing guy," Christie said during a visit to a high school AP history class, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Hmph.

27, R, PA-07.


I think both Christie and Rubio are dying to be Romney's veep
This, despite conventional liberal media wisdom that, seeing 2016 on the horizon, they wish to avoid an imminent Romney loss that would force them down with the sinking ship.

The GOP contenders who probably don't want to be Romney's veep? Daniels and Martinez, and neither of them is because of 2016 ambitions.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Grimm losing I line
Not enough valid signatures.

http://mobile.silive.com/advst...

Bachus cleared by ethics panel. http://mobile.al.com/advbirm/p...

26, Male, R, NY-10


Does this effect Grimm's reelection chances much?
I have to think that it moves the needle a bit.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Its irrelevent
The Indy line will be blank. If he really wants to he can always create his own 3rd party line & collect petition signatures for it but I'm sure he'll feel its not worth the effort since he already has the GOP & Conservative lines.

[ Parent ]
Who is our candidate here and are they any good?


[ Parent ]
Murphy is
the dem.  He's not the best candidate, but with all of the ethical problems that Grimm may encounter, its good to have a warm body on the ballot.  

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Murphy is the son of a crooked congressman
who went to jail in the abscam scandal. So it would be ironic if he uses ethics as an issue against Grimm.  

[ Parent ]
The D candidate Murphy is a joke


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
OK-HD-71
Remember the Republican was certified by one vote, and then two votes were suddenly found for the Democrat?

Well now the Democratic Supreme Court has tossed out the election and the seat will remain open until November.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news...


Weird
I was all ready for a Tulsa County Showdown.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
How common is that anyway?
I've never heard of an election being officially "too close to call" before.  It actually seems like the least-pain option for both sides in incredibly close elections.

Granted, it doesn't work for everything.  I doubt the SCOTUS would have declared Florida a tie in 2000, given that A) The presidency means alot more than a state legislature seat, and B) It would open new questions as to what happens with the EC (do Florida's votes just go unassigned or do they cease existing since no one won them?  I.E. does Gore win with a majority of 266 out of 513, or does he win with a plurality of 266 out of 538, thus throwing the election to the Republican-controlled house?)

We really need to come up with a system for this sort of thing.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
NH-Sen 1974
Wyman vs. Durkin: That resulted in the seat being declared vacant and the election being re-run. Democrat Durkin won by a significant margin.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Minnesota has a process in place
The SoS flips a coin. No joke. This happened in Hill City Minnesota with a mayoral election a few years back.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I remember reading about this in 2008
And secretly hoping that Coleman-Franken would come down to that.

[ Parent ]
Nebraska has a provision for ties too
It stipulates that a "game of chance" must be played. This happened just 2 years ago in the Republican primary for county sheriff in a county in the panhandle(which is tantamount to election there). The two candidates agreed on each drawing a card from a deck of cards and the high card won.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Missouri
First, there is an automatic recount here if the margin is very close.

Next, if after all certification (which is after all recounts) the result is still tied, there will be a coin flip.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Good Ruling
The 'found' ballots doesn't pass the 'smell' test.

I imagine the GOP should win this seat handily in Nov. now...  


[ Parent ]
Snarlin' Arlen
So, I found my favorite ever old Facebook status.

What was it?

Good riddance Arlen Spector. Nobody liked you, anyways.

This was from the day he switched parties. Oh, freshman RRR's young political mind. :p

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


Apparently Young RRR
Couldn't spell Specter either. /snark

How many likes and comments did it get (This was before RRH so  SOTS, aggou, jncca, TexasR, Tek, nor I could like it...so probably 1 lol)?

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Before the age of likes
It had 8 comments.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Mine from the day he lost the primary
In this era of partisanship, it's nice to find something both sides can agree on: We all don't like Arlen Specter.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
2010 PA-Sen Dem Primary
Does anyone have a results map that shows how the Specter/Sestak Democratic primary race ended up breaking down?

Also, haha, great status.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Here you go
http://www.electionreturns.sta...

Almost a mirror image of the AG race last week.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Thanks, Ryan
This data was interesting to look at.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Manchin & Tomblin up HUGE
According to this poll...

http://www.dailymail.com/News/...

Manchin 74
Raese 22

Tomblin 60
Maloney 32

Romney 54
Obama 37

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Can probably disregard
Didn't see there was a second page.  Poll is an online poll (yick) and also showed Tomblin up much bigger than he won by last time around in a Sept poll before the Election.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
So-so. I agree this isn't a very desirable poll, but
it says it's phone and online interviews, which seems at least somewhat credible, and let's not forget that Maloney gained a lot throughout the last month. PPP had him up by 6 a bit later than this poll was conducted, and Mellman had him up by 14 a few days earlier. So while a 16 point lead might have been too high on Tomblin, that shouldn't be contrasted with his later 2 point win, but with the 10 point-ish lead he had at the time.

[ Parent ]
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