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Morning Political Roundup for May 7, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Mon May 07, 2012 at 07:24:08 AM EDT


President

Obama: President Obama officially launched his reelection campaign on Saturday with a campaign that can be best described as Hope, Change and Fear according to slate.  Mixing his 2008 rhetoric with a fear of impending doom if Romney is elected seems to fuel this campaign cycle for him.  Obama on negativity has never been his strong suit though.

Julia: This article seems to put the Julia campaign by the Obama team into context like no other article.  In many respects, the ideological purity shown by each side on their interpretation of Julia is a fascinating examination of our current politics and a defense of each side's views on these issues.

Incumbency: President Obama, like pretty much every other incumbent, has the power of incumbency giving him a leg up in the presidential race.  This seems like a logical benefit any incumbent receives unless they are horribly unpopular, but at that point nothing might save them otherwise.

Pennsylvania:  Democratic strategists seem worried that President Obama is not spending enough time trying to shore up Pennsylvania.  Others seem to be buying into the traditional conventional wisdom Ohio and Florida fall before Pennsylvania to a Republican.  I think it would be smart for any candidate to fight hard in all three.

Swing States:  Speaking of swing states, the New York Times does a very good job articulating why the nine swing states cannot be viewed uniformly and provides us with examples of how they could break in different fashions depending on how the election plays out.

France:  In case you did not know, there was a presidential election yesterday in France.  Francois Hollande beat incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy to become the second Socialist Party president in French history.  His victory ends the 24 year electoral deficit of the Socialist Party.

Congress

Maine: Independent US Senate candidate and frontrunner Angus King is warning that he might face an onslaught of negative ads from both parties as they fear a truly independent voice in Washington.  I think King is overstating his impact.  His lead is a function of a Maine love affair with indepdendents like him that predates the current political climate.

Indiana: Senator Dick Lugar is in a fight for his political life and he is certainly acting like he is losing it.  During the final weekend of the campaign, he has been putting out calls for support and assistance as his campaign is down in the polls.

Cheney:  Liz Cheney seems to be very fixated on politics at the moment.  With her impending move back to Wyoming, it seems like she is ready to follow in her father's footsteps and run for some office in Wyoming.  I expect to see her on a VP shortlist someday.

States

Wisconsin:  In case you did not know, Wisconsin voters are heavily engaged in politics.  Apparently 1 out of every 6 voters has been to a political rally recently while the average in the nation as a whole is around 1 in 20.  The recent political drama in the state seems to be fueling political activism at a new level.

More Wisconsin: Beyond being politically active, it appears the organized labor candidates to recall Walker are losing steam very quickly.  While I believe it will be close, I think Walker's opponents are very quickly losing steam and it leans Republican right now.

PA-Senate: Melissa Hart wants to make a return to elected politics, but apparently she wants the field cleared for and does not want to campaign for the party's endorsement for the special election to replace convicted felon State Senator Jane Orie.  In the very crowded field Hart would be the favorite so I am not sure why exactly she is supposedly whining about having to appeal to people in this safe Republican district.

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Morning Political Roundup for May 7, 2012
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Politico Bipartisan Poll
Obama approval at 48/48, down one to Mitt. Trails by 10 among indies.
GOP up 2 on generic ballot.

http:// http://www.politico.com/news/s...

25, Male, R, NY-10


Important note
This is a likely voters poll.
Mitt gained 10 points from their last poll.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
All the talk about a Democratic takeover of the House
It's premised on Democrats doing well at the polls.  Yet once again it's pretty much even, albeit now with a slight Republican edge. Likewise, Obama doesn't have the lead the Democrats envision. While it's not unprecedented for the Presidential numbers to change, it usually changes for the challenger, as it did for Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 1992. Bush did trail Kerry slightly in May 2004, but his margin of victory ended up being weak. I have a hard time seeing the Presidential election as anything but close and the House vote close too.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
We saw two
divergent paths for Pelosi to 218 in 2006/2008.

1st numerous marginal seats saw a D trend.  In 2006 it Bush fatigue and in 2008 it was Obama surge.  In fact in seats in Midwest & Northeast & West Coast Obama ran ahead of the D party in many seats. He did pull some members in and we also generic D vote pull in seats in 2006.

2nd in 2008 we saw +3 dozen blue dog type seats go for Ds.  In the South, parts of west and some midwest seats we saw D's run ahead of Obama.  In 2010 we saw how Obama polarized the electorate.  That killed the D's in many blue dog type seats.

I do not see either situation 1 or 2 being flipped.  


[ Parent ]
Politico poll: Romney up 1
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

NYC-Mayor: Thompson a surprise hit with Orthodox Jews
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

100% baloney
Trust me.
Kelly would get 100% here in a primary or general election. Liu is  ton more likely to win BP.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Canadian pollsters: We did not botch the Alberta election
http://www.hilltimes.com/news/...

28, Republican, PA-6

They are probably right


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Agree
Wildrose imploded the end of the last week of the campaign.  Without a ton of polling, you could not predict such a collapse in their support.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
A few things to watch in Wisconsin tomorrow
Even though Barrett is most likely to win, tomorrow holds a lot of clues.

1. The margin between Barrett and Falk, how powerful is organized labors turnout operation? (they support Falk)
2. How many votes does Walker get, overall turnout for the GOP? How enthusiastic are Walker's supporters. This can be skewed though since many may choose to vote for the weaker democrat, though consensus is that many are voting for Walker.
3. How many votes does the GOP protest candidates get?
4. Democratic turnout statewide, keep an eye out for rural areas to see if they're connecting with moderate/conservative voters. They will be important if the vote is close.

Walker/Martinez 2016


On # 2 Are they making an active effort to get voters to write-in Walker?
How active is the campaign to get people to do this?

[ Parent ]
The write-in campaign was nixed early on
The idea was talked about during the first few months of the year and then it essentially ended when GAB said that Walker couldn't win the democratic primary even if he got the most votes. In the last two weeks everyone has rallied around voting for Walker because he actually does have an opponent.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
I thought there was no primary for the incumbent and that they
were automatically on the ballot.

[ Parent ]
They are but Walker has a "progressive republican"
as a challenger. One of the professional protestors who has camped out at the state capitol for the past year, no joke.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
I guess its REALLY important for GOP voters to turnout & vote for Walker
because Dem voters can just go to the polls and request a GOP gov ballot and vote for this progressive whack job and then switch back to vote in the down ballot Dem recall primaries. Now I get why Walker is turning out GOP voters for this primary. It was a really smart move by the Dems to get his guy on the GOP ballot.

[ Parent ]
Lt. Gov/State Senate Primaries

Given the peculiarities of the recall election, voters will be allowed to vote in the GOP primary for Governor and the Democratic primary for Lt. Governor (as well as State Senate if applicable).  (In my view, this shouldn't be allowed but it is.)  

It therefore will be interesting to see how many GOP voters do so and vote for the fake Democratic candidates.  


[ Parent ]
Comrade Vladimir
Heh, I hope the use of "comrade" is ok when being used to describe Putin and not everyone's favorite Massachusetts Congressman. I mean it has a historical basis in Russia. . .

http://www.nytimes.com/slidesh...

The journalists have it all wrong!  These people weren't protesting Putin becoming president again; they were just mad they didn't get tickets to watch the swearing in!
- what my AP Gov teacher jokingly e-mailed me this morning.
 

[ Parent ]
PPP IA
Mitt Romney's favorability in Iowa is 34/56 with an R+1 sample.

25, Male, R, NY-10

NC turnout numbers
http://www.carolinatransparenc...

Good numbers overall. I'm happy with the number of Republicans that turned out.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


That link is awesome!
Wish more states were that transparent

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
It comes at a cost
as at every step of the way voter registration and voting is kept track of by age, sex, race and party. Here in TN here local office does not interact with the state wide computer.  In fact many local election offices still use election books as opposed to computers.  So yes the NC system is nifty but someone is paying for it.

Of with motor voter forms  there are 300K who left race box blank.  There are +40K in NC without a sex box check.  You do not have to declare a sex or race box to register so even not checking a box disqualifies you.  I might add many internet forms do not have a party perference line as well.


[ Parent ]
It comes at a cost
as at every step of the way voter registration and voting is kept track of by age, sex, race and party. Here in TN here local office does not interact with the state wide computer.  In fact many local election offices still use election books as opposed to computers.  So yes the NC system is nifty but someone is paying for it.

Of with motor voter forms  there are 300K who left race box blank.  There are +40K in NC without a sex box check.  You do not have to declare a sex or race box to register so even not checking a box disqualifies you.  I might add many internet forms do not have a party perference line as well.


[ Parent ]
Very old electorate
Only around 23% are under 45. Of those though

41% are Democrats
31% Independents
28% Republicans

Compared to over 45s

47% Democrats
36% Republican
17% Independents

On Primary Ballots though

Under 45s
53% Democratic
37% Republican
10% Other

Over 45s
53% Democratic
45% Republican
2% Other

Goes with my feeling that the actual trend is replacing southern Conservadems/Republicans with Northeastern Rockefeller Republicans who identify as independents but tend to lean democratic because of the nature of the Republican party in the state rather than because they are hard-core liberals.


27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
There aren't that many of that type of voter left.
I know one. I'll take the old NC system, thank you very much. Transplants assimilate better when there are fewer of them. Concentrations bring problems.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Obama leads 47-45% in Swing States
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154...

Actual results in the 12 states in 2008 was 53-45% Obama. Obama was leading 51-42% last month.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


MA-4: Bielat down 12
http://bostonherald.com/news/p...

The 20-point shift occurred last month after a University of Massachusetts Lowell/Boston Herald poll showed Kennedy trouncing Bielat 60 percent to 28 percent in February. The surge still leaves the Brookline native roughly 12 points behind Kennedy.

The campaign also said U.S. Sen. Scott Brown has a 10 percent advantage over Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren in the new 4th Congressional District, according to the internal poll.

Lol.

27, R, PA-07.


Jump is Between a Public and an Internal Poll
And he did not release the numbers.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
Speaking of MA polling, does anyone know of any MA Senate polls set to go into the field any time soon? I really want to see what 1/32nd-gate does to Warren's approval levels and the head to head race.

[ Parent ]
Think its safe to say
That if you're not more than 1/8 of a certain ethnic or racial background, then you should not try to drum up political points by saying that is your background. 1/8 means that one of your great grandparents was 100% of that background. Most people including myself have never met their great grandparents and many of us have never met at least one of our grandparents.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
They seem overdue
It's been a long time since the last round of university polls. I expect the Globe/UNH will do something by Memorial Day.

[ Parent ]
That district is two points more Republican than the state as a whole
So if Brown is up 10, it means he's up around 53-47 statewide. Of course, I don't put a ton of faith in the poll.

[ Parent ]
Brown +6
Well, that's pretty much in line with most (non PPP) prior results.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
By how much
did Brown win this district last time?

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
he won it by 10
NT

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Name rec
She just got off of a very competitive primary, while Freed was unopposed. I'm sure she has much higher name rec due to the fact she just won a very hard fought campaign and the coverage from that win. Also, internal

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Tweets
Jason Altmire for Mark Critz
https://twitter.com/#!/critz4c...

Trumka lowers expectations in Scott Walker fight
http://campaign2012.washington...

Barney Keller ‏ @barneykeller
MT @ListKeeper: Lugar tells @WIBC he will support Mourdock against Donnelly. #INsen

Warren Buffet for Scott Rigell
Greg Giroux ‏ @greggiroux
Rep @ScottRigell (R-VA02) told @BloombergTV @BettyInTheLoop that Warren Buffett gave $2,500 to his re-election campaign

Greg Giroux Greg Giroux ‏ @greggiroux
Rigell on Buffett: "He actually said, 'If you think it'll help you, Scott, I'll do it. But if you think it'll hurt, I won't.'"

Susan B. Anthony List fund endorses @sarah_steelman for #mosen
Greg Giroux ‏ @greggiroux
Buffett pledged to match any $ by GOP lawmakers to pay for debt reduction. Rigell already had been donating 15% of salary

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


heh
Trumka argued that, whether Walker wins or loses, the unions have already succeeded in intimidating other state legislatures and governors into avoiding the union reforms that Walker undertook.

Intimidating, eh.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
WAA NE Primary poll
Bruning at 42%, Stenberg third. http://weaskamerica.com/2012/0...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Seems about right to me
I'm still supporting Bruning, but Fischer has put together some good ads focusing on her background as a rancher. I'd be comfortable with her as the nominee, but it looks like Bruning should win it.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
NV-Pres, CO-Pres, IA-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, NH-Pres, VA-Pres, NC-Pres, FL-Pres:
Obama is hitting the air with a $25M buy (not a typo) in the above listed states with this 60sec positive spot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

This is a good ad, no question, but I do think it could have been improved in a few key ways, for example they could have dropped the foreign policy bits and slowed the pace a little. And the end should have cut "Because America's greatness comes from a strong middle class" to just being "We're coming back, because you never gave up. And neither did he."

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Weak ad from OBAMA
IMO as unlike in 1984-1996-2004 what is the polling answer to direction of the country?

60% believe the country is heading in wrong direction?  Who is the President now?  Yup we have him and we are still heading in the wrong direction.

Blaming Bush for 4 million folks losing their jobs but how about the 4 million plus who lost their jobs during his 1st year in office?

Now what exactly is Obama naming as to what you actually did?

Trillion dollar stimulus?  Does his ad detail that?
Obamacare?  Actually since Obama folks continue to lose HC coverage and costs are soaring so maybe no ad mention for those reasons?

Did they bother focus grouping this ad outside of whitehouse or DNC?  I think liberals would be barely moved by this while indies get "you got to kidding" feeling after watching it.  Naturally conservatives think my goodness still blaming Bush and not taking a whit of responsiability.

So to me this ad is very ineffective in either motivating his base or winning over the middle.  Very thin soup  as what specifically is he pointing to that he has done? Actually there are less auto workers and less auto plants in the USA then in Jan 2009 so how actually are they defining humming?  GM has higher profits but fewer people working for them.  I think we will see the next ad coming out real soon to replace this one.  


[ Parent ]
Didn't think is was that great
so so ad that probably doesn't help him much.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
meh
The ad is meant to convince and fire up liberals. It seems to be working for Setsuna at least.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
What fires up liberals?
Bash Bush--talk up Unions-talk up liberal social issues?

Does Auto makers humming do it?  20,000 teachers in Ohio received layoff notices this week does the auto industry humming really move them to vote for Obama?  Standing up the middle class?  Okay Obama is standing up the middle class? Bringing America back and 60% think we are heading in wrong direction?

I am thinking 25 million bashing the GOP would be a better spend then trying to talk up standing up for the middle class or bringing America back.  So lets do the big three?

1st does it motivate liberals and core supporters? If this ad gets you to stand in the rain to vote for Obama you must be a DNC employee. Maybe if you want for GM-maybe.

2nd those indies in the middle might have liked to heard what he thinks he did right?  What did he do that worked? Because right now America mostly stinks so I do not feel good about where we are going right now and why exactly do we need to vote to keep going that way?

3rd I think most conservatives are rolling in the floor watching this.  This motivates us because it really gives us a reason to ditch this guy.

So if this is the best they have buy Romney stock.  


[ Parent ]
certainly, yes
Look how he tried to fire up the Julias of America. He put out an ad nicely displaying how he was going to take money from somebody else and give it to Julia.

'Free' money and Bush/religion/war-on-women bashing is like crack for the 20% leftist base.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
No.
I was just trying to offer my opinion on what joe blow ohio indie might think of this ad, it doesn't hit any of my personal sweet spots. So for me it was pretty "meh". I liked his last ad "Swiss Bank Account" better, and if you're talking about appealing to liberals I imagine that sort of thing that works better: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

It's funny you say that though because I thought it was a fairly toned down middle-of-the-road ad on content. What parts are appeals to liberals? Ending Iraq? That was pretty mainstream by the time we did it. The economy is "up"? It all seems pretty noncontroversial to me.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
what parts appeal to liberals?
Well, mostly the first 20 seconds, which are a relatively generic flashback to the hype of his first campaign. The rest is just mild cherry picked data points. Hardly offensive for a political ad.

But I don't think I conveyed my point right, and I think you're more correct than rdelbox. The point here isn't really to convince the muddy 10% middle, it's too early for sophisticated joe blow indie ads, imo.

Rather, he's trying to get money and labor from the liberal 40-45% of the nation, most of which haven't really been involved in this cycle yet due to the lack of a primary.

Heck, they even say that themselves in the comments.


We know that people who see this ad will be more likely to vote for President Obama.

What we don't know is how often we can afford to run ads like this.

Will you make a donation today to support the campaign and help get our message out to more voters?

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
If they could have gotten Clint Eastwood to narrate it
it would have been the Halftime in America Superbowl ad.

[ Parent ]
Clint probably backs Romney
He is typically a Republican with a strong libertarian streak.  He has made some anti-Obama statements in the past too.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I didnt really mean they should have gotten Clint
but rather was just trying to point out how Obama was using this "Halftime in America" theme for their campaign and to show what a thank you gift from Chrysler that ad was to Obama.

[ Parent ]
I actually agree that the ad was pretty good.
He's trying paint his record with the best possible brush strokes, and I think that was the best result that the campaign could have hoped to get. Still, I don't think that it will amount to much in terms of votes. It might reinforce a few left-leaning Indies and soft Democrats, but that's about it.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
ME-Sen
King's hand-wringing is part of the 'Independent' appeal. He has to remind voters that he is allied with neither party, and it helps him capitalize on fears of polarization.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Yep
Seems like a good strategy for him.  Mainers seem to eat that kind of thing up.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Dead Even Race

Looking at the polls taken over the past week, it seems pretty clear that the presidential race is basically dead even:

Rasmussen: Romney +2
Battleground:  Romney +1
Gallup Tracking:  Romney +1
Democracy Corps:  Even
Gallup Swing States:  Obama +2


Add in IBD poll showing Obama up 3, but . . .
last year, Obama's popularity peaked in early May and slide through Thanksgiving.  

[ Parent ]
Guardian column
I opened up my Twitter and saw this Tweet:
Dave Wasserman ‏ @Redistrict
Didn't catch this at the time, but great rundown of the national House forecast by @ForecasterEnten 4/25: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comm...

Sounds interesting. I like House forecasts. So I clicked. I'm reading the column and get about halfway down:

One of the best analyses I saw of this phenomenon was produced on the right-leaning, but reliable Red Racing Horses, a conservative counterpart to Daily Kos Elections. The writer Left Coast Libertarian studied how the newly configured congressional seats voted in the 2008 election.

This is a hobby for me. It's not my primary or secondary job. It's nice when they use your work next to guys who've been getting paid for it for decades.

And people do actually read this site.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Nice


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Check the comments in that diary
We were all wild about the great analysis and data.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
You're being sarcastic?
On most political sites the comments are all the same bashing one side or the other. That's what's there. It's refreshing to be here, where I can post things I've been working on a while and get some intelligent responses.

He agrees with what I've been saying a while. Regardless of whether Obama is a socialist or the Republicans want to destroy America, the GOP has created a playing field that's totally unbalanced. The Democrats would need a wave year or an inexplicable amount of luck to win a majority. The Democrats could get 51% of the congressional vote, perhaps 52%, and still not have a majority. I really don't think many people get that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
By that diary
I meant our comments on your diary here.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Oh yeah. I appreciate you guys. It's rare to find a place on the web that people can discuss things in an intelligent manner AND can appreciate the work I did. I've been in other fields for many years and have gotten my share of recognition for my work.

I'm new at politics and I'm approaching it from an analytical point of view. It's surprising and fulfilling when I look at elections in a different way and people recognize that. It brings out my inner 21 year old.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Congrats
This is good exposure for the site as well.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Congrats!
It's a great feeling to have your work recommended, and well-deserved.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Awesome!
Good job sir.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen; Fischer rising
http://www.debfischer2012.com/...

In her internal polling, Fischer is down 29 to 25 with Stenberg at 18. Sure it is an internal poll, but when combined with the other one that can out today, it is perhaps true that at least Fischer is coming up in the polls.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


I'm Kind of Pulling For Fischer
I suspect national Dems are thinking - "YES! We can win in NE against Fischer!!1!" but I think they're dead wrong on that.

Fischer seems like the right balance of conservative, competent, and not a "three-time loser" to me.  :)

I suspect if she's the nominee, she'll bury Kerrey (provided she gets the ca$h needed to run a proper campaign...).  


[ Parent ]
Agree
She seems competent, intelligent and a good fit for the state.

Plus we could use another conservative woman in the Senate with KBH going.

21, Thatcherite,


[ Parent ]
I am as well
Bruning has that Crist-ian used car salesman veneer about him; I have a feeling he'll be a lot of hot air in the Senate and not much else. And Stenberg is so desperate to be a Senator he really looks pathetic.

If Fischer can beat two statewide officeholders as a rural legislator she'll get plenty of buzz and cash in no time.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I like her too
I remember thinking last winter that Bruning had the look of a frontrunner who could be upset under the right conditions, like Trey Grayson or Jane Norton, and I've always preferred her to Stenberg, who feels like a loose cannon. GoBigRedState said Fischer's biggest problem was name rec since she's from the western part of the state, and she hasn't been fundraising much, so it would be quite the feat for her to come all the way back.

[ Parent ]
She has run good ads
There's nothing particularly unusual about them, but they are good introductory ads to people that don't know her. I don't think she could win a 2-way race with Bruning, but she could end up benefiting more than Stenberg from the negative ads that groups(particularly the Club for Growth) have run against Bruning. I still don't see her winning though.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I have no doubt she could beat Kerrey
I don't know what would make Democrats think she would be any easier to beat. The only reason she scores lower in polls right now is that she isn't very well-known. If she scored an upset, she would get plenty of attention just from that and she would have all the funding she needed for the general. I can't think of any big issues that could be used against her.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Fischer
I said this at the beginning of her campaign. She could be the (older) Kristi Noem of 2012. Little known, female state legislator going up against the establishment favorite with all the money (Blake Curd) and a longtime statewide office holder running as a conservative insurgent (Chris Nelson) and that slips through the primary at the end.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
She may end up in second
But I beleive she is too far back to challenge Bruning. Too little, too late most likely.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Probably, but it's happened in Nebraska before
Dave Heineman came all the way back against Tom Osborne in the 2006 Gov primary, which IIRC was considered a shocker. Heineman was the incumbent, which helped, but he had only been in for half a term after Johanns resigned, and Osborne is much more of legend in NE than Bruning.

[ Parent ]
Heineman's comeback against Osborne
if you look at the entire campaign was probably the biggest upset in Nebraska political history. Almost nobody thought he stood a chance when Osborne got in the race. However, by the end it wasn't that big of a surprise. Osborne simply proved to be unsuited for political campaigning.
He won 3 terms in the House on name recognition and popularity alone without really having to campaign at all. I think he originally thought that would be enough to win the governor's race. His earliest campaign signs indicated that by the fact they didn't even use his last name-they just said "You and Tom: Right for Nebraska". Once he realized that Heineman wasn't going to go down easily-he had to try to campaign hard, and you could see that it just wasn't very natural for him. Just as an aside, the interesting end to the story of his loss is that it all worked out for the best for him and the state anyway. Just a year later, he was asked to come back and be Athletic Director for the University(which was what he always wanted to do anyway) at a time when it was widely agreed that the program needed his unifying force-something he couldn't have done if he had been governor.

So while Osborne was much more of a legend than Bruning, the key difference is that Osborne's predicted success was based solely on his popularity as football coach-Bruning's predicted success is based on his proven ability to win elections. A win by Fischer right now wouldn't be quite as big of an upset overall as Heineman's over Osborne, but it would be more of a surprise at this point. A week out before the 2006 gubernatorial primary, the race looked 50/50 at best for Osborne, with Heineman maybe even slightly favored. I don't see Fischer's chances really even close to 50/50 at this point, but an upset could be possible.

42, R, NE-1.


[ Parent ]
good
Kerrey has no shot, and I think I like her the best of the three Republicans.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
TX-07: A relative is challenging Culberson
Eeeeek. A relative of my mother's with whom she was close growing up in Michigan, James (Jimmy) Cargas, is running against John Culberson. I almost fainted when I got a fundraising letter in the mail. Ugh, sharing blood with someone running for Congress as a liberal Democrat! He was an environmental lawyer under Bill White and I sort of figured he'd run for something some day.

Very nice guy. . . but go Culberson!


TX-07 (RRR)
Haha, wow...glad the liberal relatives I have haven't run for anything AND don't know where I live.

Also, in a (2004/2008) R+14 district, I'm still calling this Safe Culberson, so go Culberson indeed.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
Kristi Noem finishes college, speaks at her own ceremony
http://content.usatoday.com/co...

The Class of 2012 now has one of its own in Congress.

Rep. Kristi Noem, a rising House GOP star from South Dakota, earned her bachelor's degree this weekend some 18 years after she dropped out of college.

Heh. Cool story, I guess.

27, R, PA-07.


I didn't even know that she hadn't finished college.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
She had to drop out
To help on her family farm after her dad was killed in a farming accident

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
This has the makings . . .
of a very good political advertisement

[ Parent ]
IBD/CSM: Obama +3
http://www.tipponline.com/pres...

46%  Democrat Barack Obama
43%  Republican Mitt Romney

This poll of course has a 2008esque D+7 electorate, quite different than 2004's D+3 electorate or 2010's EVEN electorate.

27, R, PA-07.


PA-17/12
Awesome!!!!!!!!! precincts results maps. http://www.hamiltoncampaigns.c...

25, Male, R, NY-10

WI-St. Sen: New DLCC ad attacking Sen. Moulton
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


They're after Fox now
http://act.credoaction.com/cam...

First it was Rush and now it's Fox. To those on the left, The New York Times, MSNBC, CBS et al are neutral, while Fox, Rush, and all the other right wingers are out there spreading lies. They just want to get rid of all the media that lies about Obama and the Democrats, which come to think about is probably all the media that disagrees with him.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I'm about tempted to violate Godwin's Law here
I really dislike government imposed censorship, from all sides, although the left is much worse than the right on all things that aren't "indecent".

It's time to eliminate the FCC outside of frequency overlap issues.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
The UK Has Much Stricter Libel and Public Interest Law
Its why there is no equivalent to talk radio.

Also why the US is the only country where anyone seems to have doubts about man-made climate change. 90% of the anti-climate change advertising in the US would get you fined out of existence in the UK for violating public interest laws.

Basically these laws act as roving libel prosecutions which allow the government to in effect sue you under the insanely strict UK libel laws for making statements that are not in the "public interest".

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Seriously?
We live in a great country. I doubt you could find many reasonable people in the U.S. who'd advocate for such libel laws. You could get the ACLU and ADF to file joint briefs if someone tried such a thing. The U.S. is just so different than Europe.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
But Europe is not a Democracy
It has a facade of Democracy behind which the Civil Service makes policy, appoints Ambassadors, makes military deployments, drafts legislation, and writes budgets. Politicians don't even get to hire their own staffs.

Controlling the media is vital to this. If the media were ever to turn on the Civil Service or back people or policies they didn't like, there might be trouble.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Does the censorship extend to the Internet?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I have to be careful writing reviews of say letting agents, since they can threaten to sue you for libel.

In practice the government generally won't bother, but if you were having an impact they would probably go after you.

Also as in Canada, the elected government has very little control of the agencies that do these things, so a Conservative government can't really affect these departments without abolishing them. Basically the same principle Obama wanted to put in place with the Consumer Protection Agency, namely its ability to appoint its own director who future presidents and congresses can't remove, applies to the whole bureaucratic. The courts are equally self-perpetuating. Parliament could in theory override any individual action, but the bureaucratic do so much, that being overridden on one issue means they get away with doing the same exact thing in 200 other cases that week.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I have Church friends
in UK who have the concern that "public interest" or other such standards will be used to limit what is said from the pulpit.

One person's hate speech could be another person's doctrine. I am talking about screaming hateful things at funerals but just expounding church dogma from the pulpit.  


[ Parent ]
Yeah
The public interest laws were originally targeted at "Catholic" subversion, and then were used against radicals, and subsequently Communist.

In each case the government gets to punish people who publicly promote "untruthful" information against the public interest. But in the UK, the burden is on the person saying something to prove its true. And because you can't "prove" that homosexuality is a sin, you are promoting falsehood, hatred and potential violence and therefore can be suppressed.

Of course the religious standard is deliberately vague because it used to be used to send people to prison for expressing belief in the Mass.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
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