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Evening Political Roundup for May 7, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Mon May 07, 2012 at 18:21:58 PM EDT


RRH-LCL: Our site and commentator Left Coast Libertarian received some good attention from the UK Guardian today. Guardian reporter Harry J Enten highlights the difficulties facing the Democrats in retaking the House of representatives:

We have very little polling of the 435 individual districts. We also don't know how voters will react to their new "incumbent" congresspersons because of redistricting. Redistricting generally provided neither the Democrats nor the Republicans with an overall edge in the seat count, but it did shore up Republican incumbents. One of the best analyses I saw of this phenomenon was produced on the right-leaning, but reliable Red Racing Horses, a conservative counterpart to Daily Kos Elections. The writer Left Coast Libertarian studied how the newly configured congressional seats voted in the 2008 election. House votes in this nationalized political environment are highly correlated with past presidential results. There were very few Democratic incumbents who won seats in 2010 in districts won by John McCain in 2008. When you take a look at the chart below, you see the number of seats where McCain did better than he did nationally, R+, and number of seats where Obama did better than he did nationally, D+.

Thanks to the Guardian for the mention and LCL for his work.

Pennsylvania: Enough Mr. Nice Guy with the press... The Daily has an interesting article out on the supposed "Reagan Democrats" in Pennsylvania lacking a home.  While the people they describe do exist, actually have these views, and the county seat of the county where my parents live, Greene County, actually exists, their analysis is pretty pathetic.  Most importantly, their use of the term Reagan Democrat is out of line.  Western Pennsylvania Democrats weren't Reagan Democrats.  The 1980s were a horrible time for Republicans in western Pennsylvania with Greene County having a double digit Democrat leaning PVI score!  The Reagan Democrats that existed in Pennsylvania were in the blue collar cities in the northeastern part of the state and industrial suburbs of Philadelphia like Bensalem.  Being socially conservative and a Democrat does not make you a Reagan Democrat.

Romney-Huckabee: I have not thought of this ticket, but it might not be a bad selection for Romney if he is concerned about the evangelicals not turning up... Mike Huckabee.  I am not a huge Huckabee fan, but could live with a Romney Huckabee ticket.  I am not sure Huckabee really helps Romney though.  Huckabee might work well with blue collar whites, but this war is going to be won in suburban areas.

Greece: Go home and then thank whoever you pray to for not living in Greece at the moment.  Monitor this one to get substantially worse before it gets better.

Julia: I cannot stop looking at the various takes of Obama's modern woman, Julia, the 21st century Welfare Queen.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Evening Political Roundup for May 7, 2012
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Evening Political Roundup for May 7, 2012 | 120 comments
Romney-Huckabee
Huckabee won't leave his high-paying job on Fox News. He'd also have to lose a few pounds, and he has a new house in Florida that he likes. I doubt that he'd want to move in the Naval Observatory.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Romney-Huckabee...
...would be about the WORST VP choice possible.

Romney's problems are two-fold, 1) Fiscons (like me!) don't believe he's serious about deficit reduction/debt control, and 2) SoCons (like me!) don't trust him.

Putting Huckabee on there would absolutely shred Romney's credibility with the first group.

Heck, it would even call into question Romney's fitness as a supply-sider/tax-cuter!!

I'm serious - that would be about the worst choice out there: it would be a sign that Romney's serious about neither the debt nor pro-growth policies: the worst of both worlds!  

[ Parent ]
Agreed!
Huckabee would be the worst choice. He adds nothing. It would be a HUGE mistake to pick him.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Huckabee as veep makes little sense
That is, unless Romney's significantly trailing this summer, not because of women, moderates or Hispanics, but rather due to a severe lack of enthusiasm among social conservatives.

I, however, happen to think the vast bulk of socons are already merrily on board with Romney (or, at least, the idea of defeating Obama with an electable candidate) and I don't think he'll be trailing big in a month or two and, hence, won't feel the need to throw a hail mary like Huckabee (or Rubio, Ayotte or Martinez). I still think Portman and Pawlenty are the overwhelming favorites, with Ryan a possibility b/c he and Romney supposedly have terrific chemistry.  

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Love the Iowahawk link
That man constantly puts out some good material.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  
Julia
It's hard to explain just how bad a symbol Julia is for Obama. I wish our side was smart enough to create a Julia, but we're just not that clever.

You'd think someone at the Obama campaign would've realized how horrible an idea this was, how it reflected all the criticisms of Democratic policy. I suppose if you fill a room with only progressives this seems like a great idea.

Imagine a Republican Jim who goes out hunting and bags a rabbit, goes to an evangelical church on Sunday, counsels his daughter not to get an abortion, and succeeds due to lack of regulation. It wouldn't look good.

Hopefully, our Jim is undefinable because he makes his own choices and works inside and outside the system as much as he wants.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
"if you fill a room only with progressives..."
I think you just touched on the core of the problem. There is a phenomenon, described in "The Big Sort" by Bill Bishop, in which like-minded people seek-out one another and choose to live among like-minded people to the greatest reasonable extent. This is a bipartisan phenomenon, but liberals are especially vulnerable to its GroupThink consequences, because most conservatives are at least exposed to the Liberal/Left side of the equation through the mainstream media, the entertainment industry, and the state-run education system (even in "red" states, K-12 now rivals most colleges & universities for ideological conformity among teachers and administrators). Most liberals, on the other hand, almost NEVER have to deal, face-to-face, with contrary information or opposing viewpoints from an authority-figure at any stage of their life. The result -- when duplicated all over the country for two or three generations -- is a group of people who think the life of "Julia" is not just normal but something that we should all actually aspire to.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
Hence the community gardening in retirement!
If they had even a shred of self awareness they would have had Julia volunteer at her Church or spend time with her grandchildren or even take bus trips to an Indian Casino to play the slots!  
[ Parent ]
*Enten*


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Greece is all about Samaras
He forced Papandreou out of the Prime Ministership out of personal pique, and then forced new elections three years early because he wanted to have the largest party and be Prime Minister.

No one trusts him, and this little charade is about publicly humiliating him. Even if PASOK had a majority with New Democracy, its unlikely they would accept him as Prime Minister.

They will run through all of the parties, and then Samaras will be forced to offer to quit as ND leader in order to get anyone to work with him.

It might lead to new elections anyway, but the goal right now is to force Samaras out.

Now it may not be possible to form any sort of government anyway regardless of whose involved, but thats a very different matter.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

Greece
Favorite comment on NYT article:

This gives new meaning to the concept that people get the government that they deserve.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

What would you do?
What would you do if a family member was running for Congress in a safe seat for your party as a member of the other party?

A relative who my mom was close with growing up is running for TX-07 as a Democrat. I support John Culberson 100% and hope to see him trounce his opponent in November. It just made me curious to see what you guys would do. It'll be sort of awkward when people talk about his run and I'll be thinking, "Yeah, go Culberson. . ."

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

Family
What is your mom doing?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Don't create acrimony
I have a friend whose father is a Democrat in congress in a safe seat. I've never met him, but I still sent him one and only Democratic donation the last cycle. Then I got a letter thanking me and telling how awful the Republicans were and contributions like mine were going to keep Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. No good deed... I guess I'm just lucky he didn't sell my name to other Democrats.

Be supportive. You don't have to send money or make phone calls, but family is family.  At the end of the day you've been good to someone your mother is close to and that's appreciated. Choose family over politics. You should feel better about yourself.

[and the guy isn't going to cost the GOP a seat anyway. So it's win win.]

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
in that district
Tell her President Bush represented it and wish her luck.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
What would you do?
It is irrelevant since it is a safe GOP seat. He will probably lose by 20 points even if he runs a great race.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Well since it's safe
what would be the problem? It's not like it's a competitive race where you could be contributing toward the democrats regaining control. Unless it's someone in my immediate family running I wouldn't be required to donate.

NY-3
[ Parent ]
Ask him to move a few miles
and challenge SJL in a primary in 2014. He'd have just as much a chance of getting to congress that way (which is to say, basically zero) but you could support him whole-heartedly.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
SJL
He could possibly get Bill White's backing if he does that (he worked for White). He also worked as a lawyer in the Clinton administration. . . although SJL backed Hillary and the Clintons are super loyal.

I'd fully support him in a primary against SJL, one of the worst members of Congress. He'd be doing us all a favor by ridding Congress of Queen Sheila.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

[ Parent ]
I'd do more than that
I'd offer him advice and time. If he starts laying the groundwork right now (or, that is, as soon as he loses TX-7 in November or in 3 weeks). SJL isn't immediately vulnerable the way EBJ or Rangel is, but she's still beatable. And that twilight zone is the perfect place for an offbeat challenger to upset.

Just off the top of my head, I'd look at a strategy like this:

*Move to the district. And not a loft in Downtown Houston either. Independence Heights or something; really show you're serious about the community.

*Learn Spanish if you don't know it already. Start volunteering with Hispanic community groups, maybe offer free legal advice, that sort of thing. He'd need to run up the margins among non-blacks in the district.

*Target black churches; talk about civility in politics and serving the community to peel off some middle class voters.

*Hit up fundraising networks early, particularly the Greek connections, and aggressively court the establishment and newspaper endorsements. Bill White could be a major help there.

It's definitely doable. Extremely difficult, but doable. And probably the best way for him to be a congressman (if he really wants to be one rather than running sacrificial lamb campaigns in hopes of landing some appointed job) without moving to a different state.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Wow
I had no idea how I was going to respond to this, but that's the best answer. The chances of a scandal exploding on SJL between the filing deadline and primary are much better than Culberson losing to a Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't vote or give money
But otherwise I'd be encouraging and offer your best wishes that the campaign be civil and educational.

When my sister was the finance director for a hopeless congressional candidate in Fresno in 2000, my Dad did feel obliged to vote for the candidate, even though he was a hardcore libertarian. He knew his vote wouldn't change the outcome of the race, and I think supporting a child is different than supporting other types of relatives.

Born: CA-22 (Nunes); Just Left: CA-12 (Pelosi); Now: CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
If he were my own brother
Geez, I wouldnt support, contribute to, or lift a finger for him even if he were my own brother, & I wouldnt expect my brother do to anything for me, either, if I were a rabid opponent of everything he thinks is good for the country.

On the other hand, I wouldn't go out & campaign against him, either.  But if asked by the press, I'd just say, "he's my brother, but I'm a Republican.  When the election's over he'll still be my brother & I'll still be a Republican."

It's like, suppose you worked for an auto dealer & this relative was selling cars for a competitor.  Would you buy your next car from the relative or from the company you worked for & whose cars you presumably thought were better?

[ Parent ]
Just to clarify
I'm 1000000% for Culberson. I'm just asking what all y'all would do.

(This isn't necessarily aimed at you)

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

[ Parent ]
Considering he doesn't have a shot
might as well be nice to him and express your support (in words only). It doesn't matter. If he was running in a close race, it'd be different.  
[ Parent ]
SJL: "Woman of a Certain Rage"
There's a new book coming out about the 112th Congress and "Queen Sheila" Jackson Lee (thanks to her wicked hardcore temper) has an ENTIRE chapter dedicated to her.

In one anecdote, Draper recounts Jackson Lee's efforts to be elected chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.

"She would later claim that she had 'stepped aside' and permitted Emanuel Cleaver to take the post," Draper writes. "In fact, the CBC put the matter to a vote. Midway through the balloting, when it was clear that Jackson Lee was headed toward defeat, the congresswoman suddenly stood and proclaimed, 'I move that we unanimously elect Emanuel Cleaver as our next chairman.' ... Several members, however, privately voiced their dismay. They wanted the voting to continue. They wanted Sheila Jackson Lee to see the final tally."

Click this, it's actually super funny.

http://nation.foxnews.com/shei...

http://blog.chron.com/txpotoma...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

Middle of the night drama in Israel
After election passed almost unanimously earlier tonight in Knesset, a unity government was formed with Kadima and its new leader Mofaz. Total 100% surprise. I have no clue why.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I can repeat
Israeli reeports like a parrot, but I know politics better than them. Probably something behind the scenes. Netanyahu was expected to be reelected easily.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Indeed, very big news
that caught everyone by surprise. A majority of Israelis opposes the early elections ("stability" is almost a sacred word in Israel where a government falls every other year) and most politicians, including Mofaz (who'll be a minister without portfolio and deputy PM in the Netanyahu government) and Netanyahu (He's the PM, what can he gain from early elections? being PM again? it's a gamble and Netanyahu is anything but a gambler, the very definition of a "play it safe" politics) would gain from postponing the elections.
[ Parent ]
NC 8 Preview
Also Hotline's NC Preview
[ Parent ]
NC-8-John Whitley
I thought he was a major player in the race. The article says he could have self-funded but hasn't. It says he has little paid media. That is surprising. I saw several Whitley commercials that ran after the commercials for NC-9 candidate Robert Pittenger. I only remember seeing one other NC-8 candidate's commercial, one by Richard Hudson's campaign that featured his dog. Granted, I don't watch much TV. I personally favor Hudson. Now that I know Whitley's campaign has tapered off, I agree with the article's assessment that the race will probably go to a runoff with Hudson and Scott Keadle.  
[ Parent ]
is Keadle the only non birther?


Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Go Keadle! (by default)


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
he's also CfG endorsed
I'm pretty sure, so he'd probably be your pick either way.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
CfG+DDS+non-birther=golden ticket in this seat for me. I've been leaning towards him since the field solidified.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Go guy who primaries Patrick McHenry for absolutely no reason and is a carpetbagger! It also won't help in a general that the Charlotte Observer said he wasn't even worthy of consideration in the primary.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
*Sigh*
The CfG obviously has awful tastes! Oh, and birthers are always the right people to run for Congress! /snark

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Hudson
Is not a birther. He was simply saying that Obama prolonged the birther issue, possibly for political gain, by not showing his birth certificate earlier.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Hudson
"There's no question President Obama is hiding something on his citizenship," Hudson said at the event, according to a video provided to Roll Call. "And if you elect me to Congress to represent you, I'll introduce legislation that requires any candidate for president or vice president to be certified by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court as being a citizen."

If that's not birtherism, what is?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Just sounds like his opinion
which I'm sure many in his district agree with. Not much to that.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
wait
if his opinion is that Obama's hiding something on his citizenship, doesn't that make him a birther? If not, what does it make him?

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
A candidate for Congress
giving his opinion about a topic. A couple of sentences among thousands he has made as a candidate.  

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Well
If a candidate said "I want to take away guns" once, would that not make them anti-gun and instead would make him just someone who said "a couple of sentences among thousands he has made?"  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Yes
But did Hudson explicitly say Obama's BC was fake or that he wasn't a natural born citizen? Its a factual statement that Obama hid his long form BC for several years, likely because it was a winning issue for him. It distracted from his record and made people sympathetic to him.

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
he said
Obama is hiding something.

Not was.

Is, as in right now, months after the release of his long form certificate.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
True
But I like to give people the benefit of the doubt, and we can't always get our word usage perfect and sometimes we say is when we mean was be when we mean is.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
fair enough
I can understand that.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
You vote on gun related issues in Congress
never heard of any birther votes, have you?

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
there are lots of things you don't vote on
in the state legislature, you don't vote on foreign policy, but I'd have a problem with a State Senate candidate who supported someone like Qaddhafi or Saddam.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
True
None of that has any relation to Hudson or the topic though.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
well, I'm saying that
for most people (and I'd assume for you too, to some degree), stuff besides the voting record matters.

You don't usually vote on whether to take bribes, but I have a problem with Bill Jefferson's Congressional tenure despite approving of most of his voting record.

You don't usually vote on racism, but I'd have a problem with a racist member of Congress.

There's a reason Michele Bachmann is so much less popular in her district than the other Republicans with similar records in Likely/Safe R districts.

Voting record might be all that matters to you.  And that's fine, and in that case birtherism in a candidate is irrelevant.  But to most voters, it matters.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
to clarify
I'm not saying that Bachmann is corrupt or a racist.  I think she's neither.

But I'm saying she gets punished at the ballot box for factors besides her voting record.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Will have to see if the voters of NC-8
care about that. I highly doubt it makes a difference though.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
I agree
Republicans generally don't care about controversial statements Republicans make, unless they're extremely outlandish (and same goes for Democrats)

NC-8 is too Republican for Kissell to win.

So Hudson may win despite this, or even because of it.

But the conversation about whether he is a birther is as salient to the mission of RRH as a conversation about his position on gun control.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Hold your horses
Vernon Robinson could absolutely lose NC-08 to Kissell. That being said, if he advances to the runoff, the NCGOP will absolutely nuke his campaign.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
I forgot Robinson was running there
you're right. But I can't see Hudson losing it, nor Keadle.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Too bad Steen never raised any money
He seems like he could be a perfectly non-controversial nominee. Thom Tillis endorsed him and he was the "second pick" of the observer.

My hope for Hudson is that James' line of thought on this prevails and he avoids any future slip-ups. Before the birther shindig, he had the most potential of any NC recruit this year.

[ Parent ]
Potential?
What potential did/do you see in him? He seems to be your standard party insider who decides to run for Congress. . . he's just younger than the others who are running in NC-08. Does he have any earth shattering experience outside of the political realm either?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Steen
Is originally who I was backing after Burr announced he wasn't running and Barry switched to the 9th. I still wish Burr had run because Steen's fundraising has been so bad or that Barry had stayed in  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
well, yes
he is a candidate for Congress and he is giving his opinion.  However, that opinion would certainly be considered "birtherism" by a majority of people who follow politics.  I'd wager on the right as well as the left.

As someone who isn't on the right, and can't always understand the right, I'll leave it to other RRH users to disagree with me if they feel this doesn't count as "birtherism."

Particularly James, since this was a response to him originally.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Hudson
And I quote "Of course I accept citizenship. My point was that by waiting three years to answer critics, POTUS created the issue himself."  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
That sounds kind of like a walk-back to me
The fact that he said Obama is hiding something, rather than was, suggests he's pretty skeptical.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Keadle and Carpetbagging
to be fair, he carpetbagged out of the district before and has some roots in Rowan.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Mexican presidential debate
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/up...

This is the first newsstory I have seen in the American press on the race.  Sadly PAN is behind in the polls.

27, Republican, PA-6

DSCC Spending Big In Three States
Translation: It's All Defense
This tells me that the Dems are legitimately worried about losing the Senate.

If things were going their way, they'd be playing offense in NV and MA (and possibly AZ).  

[ Parent ]
Well, of course they are
MT, MO, ND, NE... And they have states like VA and NM which are close.  
[ Parent ]
and WI
Which I'd put in front of MT and MO.  But I see a lot of people leave that one off of their lists...
[ Parent ]
Everything in MA
Will matter on the margins. It will be determined by the national environment. If Obama is winning people will feel safe from a GOP trifecta, and vote for Brown. If it looks like Obama will lose and all the talk is on abolishing social security/social issues, and the Supreme Court becomes the defining issue, there will be enough hyper-partisan democrats to beat him. The potential exception is Warren turning herself into Sharon Angle which she is hard at work on.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
MA
They can't spend there with Brown and Warren's pact.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
OK...
...but they aren't spending in NV either, which to me is very telling.  
[ Parent ]
I need advice from the community.
I had planned to attend SMU for college, but I just got a phone call, and have learned that William and Mary has accepted me off of the wait list. I'll make my own decision, but I value advice from many of you. What would you recommend that I do, and why?

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Thoughts
I would personally lean W&M, however Money might play a role in my decision.  Is either giving you any money?  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
SMU is giving me money.
W&M is slightly cheaper, but they aren't offering money, so it's cheaper to attend SMU. Luckily for me, I'm a 1%er, so my parents have enough money to pay for my college education in full.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
In that case
I'd say W&M pretty easily.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Williamsburg is near DC
So if you ever wanted to work or intern on the Hill that is an option. W&M is a GREAT academic school. But it is also much smaller and there is not much of a party scene in Williamsburg. SMU as a bigger school might offer you more of a social life (and better weather)! I went to a smaller University with a strong academic focus and when I look back at my college years I know I wished that I went to a bigger school with more of a social scene. So dont discount that in your decision making process. There is plenty of time in life for hard work. Look to enjoy college. You are only young once!
[ Parent ]
Williamsburg is in Brooklyn!!


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
They got a colonial one in Virginia too

[ Parent ]
W&M

I would pick William & Mary.  All things being equal, I think that it is better to go to college in a smaller town.  Also, William & Mary is generally ranked higher, which matters if you have any interest in going to law school or another graduate school.  
[ Parent ]
slight correction
If he wants to go to law school he's better off with a 4.0 at Northeast Tennessee State than a 3.9 at Stanford. But for all the other grad schools (and for basically everything) W&M wins out.

Libertarian-R New MA-5. Christie-Martinez 2016.
[ Parent ]
It's called East Tennessee State University (ETSU), but whatever.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I know a girl
from HS that went to W&M and she loved it.  But like izengabe mentioned, it depends on what you're looking for.  SMU has, from what I've heard, more of a party scene.  It's not Madison or Penn State by any stretch, but the social scene is a part of the school. Whether you view that positively or negatively, you should take that into account.

Academically, William and Mary has more of a national reputation and is closer to DC and the big east coast markets if that's something you would like.  SMU is less of a national school but has great job placement into Dallas companies.  If you like DFW, and wouldn't mind staying there after school, SMU is a good choice.

Neither is a bad choice although they both have their tradeoffs.  Seeing how financials isn't a huge factor, I'd take a long hard look at what you want from a school and go from there.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Being Selfish
Go to W&M.  Vote in VA instead of TX.

33, R, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Well,
I'd probably stay registered in Tennessee for the duration of my college tenure. The Shelby County GOP needs every vote that it can get to maintain our holds on countywide offices.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Thanks to all of you for your advice!


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Rick for Mitt
It's official.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

Good
Even I am holding my nose for Mitt.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Questions
1. I know obviously nothing will get you to vote for Obama, but is there anything that Romney could do that would prevent you from voting for him?  

2. Will you donate less/volunteer less due to Mitt being the nominee (If you do that stuff at all).

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
1
Supporting the nazi party in greece.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
In the 13th paragraph of the email
Santorum sent out.

I actually had to scan the email twice to look for the word "endorsement." He really didn't want to do it.

Happy to have the endorsement, but hoping Romney will keep him out of the cabinet.

Born: CA-22 (Nunes); Just Left: CA-12 (Pelosi); Now: CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Yep
I don't wish to see him much either.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
It's like my blog post. Vote Mitt Romney. He sucks less.
This one's going to be real painful.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
California Demographics
An interesting Joel Kotkin article about the past, present and future of California and its demographics: http://online.wsj.com/article/...

A few of my favorite tidbits

"California used to be more like Texas-a jobs magnet. What happened? For one, says the demographer, Californians are now voting more based on social issues and less on fiscal ones than they did when Ronald Reagan was governor 40 years ago."
[...]
"Mr. Kotkin also notes that demographic changes are playing a role. As progressive policies drive out moderate and conservative members of the middle class, California's politics become even more left-wing."


Lifelong Republican, TX-17
That Completely Nails It
It's why Barbara Boxer is still Senator - California's virtually want 3rd trimester abortions, and if anyone's going to get them for Californians, by Joe it's Babs Boxer!!

I totally agree - California's vote ("progressive") social issues first, and everything else last. As a result, the economy's in a shambles, and there's no room for a middle class anymore.

It's a vicious circle, but there's going to be an endgame where increasingly "progressive" politics simply aren't tenable anymore. I suspect we're just about there...  

[ Parent ]
If it gets too crazy,
the backcountry may just up and revolt, with Rs getting 60something% of the vote outside of L.A. County and the Bay Area. Then again, it could always get worse.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
That's ridiculous
Any realistic voter in CA is going to know that there are enough Senators in the Senate to oppose something like radical 3rd trimester abortions. And besides, most people didn't vote on social issues in 2010.

62% economy
13% healthcare
10% illegal immigration
10% War in Afghanistan

It seriously is not true to think that people are voting for Boxer just because Fiorina is more conservative on social issues. Economic issues are just as much as the forefront..

[ Parent ]
Barbara Boxer Doesn't Run On The Economy
She never does. Every campaign from her is the same: Vote for me, or the evil Republicans will kill women and children with their evil policies that'll bring back backalley abortions. And wife beating... Or something.

Even if Boxer actually tried to run on the economy, she has nothing over her 20+ years in the Senate to show for it.

Feinstein can at least run on some economic stuff she's pushed over the years. Boxer's got nothing.

If you care about the economy, there's like zero reason to vote for Boxer. I suspect that's why she sees relatively sizable 'protest' votes, even in Dem Primaries...  

[ Parent ]
well, since she's never had serious primary opposition
her elections always play out as D Economic/Social policies vs. R ones.

California voters support Democrats' economic policies, so they vote Boxer.

Boxer may run on social issues more than most candidates, but that's not why she gets her votes.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
I'll Just Say I Disagree With Your Last Sentence, And Leave It At That (nt)

[ Parent ]
Well, I bet she'd have done much worse with
Hispanics in 2010 if the election were all about social issues.

Boxer emphasizes abortion, which many if not most Hispanics oppose.  Yet she won them easily, even in 2010.

Why?  Progressive economic policies, which most Hispanics support.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Well, yeah, of course
Boxer ran on this message:

"Vote for me, or the evil Republican who kills the middle class with their evil corporate policies, who kill women with their evil policies that will bring back wife beating and backalley abortions, and who will permit gun violence"

She had to run on the economy in 2010. It was 2010.

Check out this Boxer ad that was all economy. It was one of the best ads of the campaign season, and basically put Fiorina away. No mention of social issues here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


[ Parent ]
the very next ad
Goes into abortion.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
That was an anti-Fiorina ad
And not a pro liberal Dem economy ad.

The problem with Fiorina's campaign (and I felt it at the time too) was that she should have countered by saying it was Boxer's policies of higher taxes and more regulations that force companies to outsource and/or lay off employees. And if you vote for the status quo, than companies are going to keep doing this, since their goal is to make money.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
incidentally
I think Republicans, in 2016, need to support a Blue Dog Hispanic Democrat if Boxer runs again (or if Kamala Harris does).

California is too blue to elect an R for Senate, but if Republicans vote en masse for a center-left Democrat rather than a progressive, they can align with centrist Indies, some liberal Hispanics who want to see a Hispanic Senator, and center-left voters to end Boxer's Senate tenure.

Of course the state party would refuse to get behind it, but I think it would work...

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
OTOH, I agree that CA progressive voters may
vote the "general social issue" first (i.e. pro-choice, anti-gun, pro gay marriage).  
[ Parent ]
Why vote on fiscal issues
The state's completely ineffective setup made passing a budget almost impossible anyway, so I guess voters shifted to the issues they could actually have an impact on.  

Libertarian-R New MA-5. Christie-Martinez 2016.
[ Parent ]
I don't think that that is the calculus.
Voters tend to care more about social issues if they care less about their economic situation. If your economic situation seems secure (progressives in the middle or upper classes) or if you don't think that the government should be redistributing wealth (many rural voters), then you're free to vote on social issues. As Mr. Kotkin's article points out, Californians a re used to being on the economic gravy train. Progressives out there want to tax the rich and give to the poor, so they want to effect fiscal policy. CA voters (at least left-leaning potential swing voters) are just used to putting those issues on the back burner.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
your first sentence is accurate
but I don't think lower class voters vote less on social issues than upper class ones.

Many lower class voters vote Republican because of social issues like abortion and guns, although there are certainly some (more than many progressives acknowledge) who wholeheartedly support the Republicans' economic policies.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
I didn't say that lower-class voters vote less on social issues
than upper-class ones do. I agree with you that exactly the opposite is true. What I meant was that unless you're desperately poor, you don't tend to vote on economic issues if you're lower-class and socially conservative. I specified rural voters because they tend to be less desperate in their economic situation, largely due to lower cost of living numbers in rural areas. They may be jealous of Joe Millionaire's big house a few hollers over, but many of them don't want the government to take it away and give some of that wealth to them, especially if that same government would also take their guns away and/or encourage abortion as an option for unwanted pregnancies.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
There Hasn't Been a "Gravy Train" Around Here For About 5 Years...
...But I'm not sure I've seen any change in voter behavior - they still vote down tax increases, but in general still vote for often superfluous bond issues (though, if there has been one change in the last few years that I've noticed is that bond issues are having a harder time passing out here).

But, beyond maybe the bond issue thing, I really can't say I've seen any change in voter behavior yet, even despite the "gravy train" having ended some time ago.  

[ Parent ]
The California Voter
Whites:
1. GLBT issues
2. The environment
3. Anything else

Blacks:
Republicans are evil and Democrats care about us

Hispanics:
Republicans hate us and Democrats care about us

Bill Lockyer reflects what progressives think: California is a great place for jobs. The weather is great. We have a highly educated, highly skilled workforce. And just look at all the new business filings last year.  

The progressive is certain the problem with California is that we don't spend enough on education, we don't tax the rich, corporations, and oil companies enough, and that Prop. 13 is responsible for all the rest of the evil. But if we just had a bullet train, everything would be better.

Say what you want about us Republicans, but we recognize our shortcomings and problems. We understand why Hispanics aren't jumping on board. We get it. Progressives think businesses are dying to get in.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
+1
The assumption is that the gravy train will keep on rolling. The tech bubble really perpetuated that attitude beyond where it unusually would have faded. Tech companies, which require that highly educated, highly skilled workforce, saved California from a lot of pain, but the state can't escape the medicine forever.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Exactly
California is built on an unsustainable economic course.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Tech provides a false balm
No matter how bad the environment there is for business here tech companies almost have to be in Silicon Valley. So there are plenty of new start ups. Companies can thrive in a hostile business environment. There isn't just one factor in company success. So thriving tech companies mask what's really going on.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
this is a great article
The Bay area is now fast becoming a combination of latte liberals and welfare queens. Who else can afford to live there?

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
KY-4 webb-Edgington Looks In Control
Good
I thought Massie looked good, but then I found out that he was a Paulite. I also like Webb-Edgington's time in the State Police.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
George Soros walks into a bar with $100 million
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05...

No punchline.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Charlie's back!
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

You just can't keep a corrupt good politician down.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Evening Political Roundup for May 7, 2012 | 120 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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