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Morning Political Roundup for May 9, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Wed May 09, 2012 at 07:16:12 AM EDT


POTUS

West Virginia: Speak of a disappointment... President Obama has lost several counties and at least one delegate to convicted felon Keith Russell Judd.  When was the last time a major political party had a convicted felon receive a convention delegate?

Rendell: Former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, always someone whose never short on words, has told President Obama to "Man Up" on the gay marriage issue.   Kind of interesting for Obama to receive a lecture from Rendell on gay marriage as Rendell did nothing to push gay marriage or civil unions while he was Governor of Pennsylvania.

Gay Marriage: Barack Obama's "evolving stance" on gay marriage might be based off polling of suburban voters.  Obama's evolving on the issue seems to fit nicely with polling showing evolving among suburban voters.  The bigger question is whether having a mixed stance on the issue is a problem at all as most voters don't seem to really be voting on the issue.

James Carville: This is an interesting wakeup call piece for Democrats from James Carville.  He seems to be worried by a number of Democrats who think they will win easily.  He actually sees a far more rough road ahead for the Democrats as they are failing to connect to voters.

Romney: In case you did not know, Mitt Romney is inching closer to the presidential nomination with wins in West Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana last night.

Congress

Massachusetts: Senator Scott Brown is up with his first TV advertisement.  A positive ad focusing on him and playing up his biography.

Indiana: Here are some takeaways from the Politico over Dick Lugar's primary loss last night.  I think their analysis focuses too much on Lugar's ideological deviations and too little on his general dislike of his behavior.

More Indiana: The fight against Senator Lugar started a long time ago according to this National Journal piece.  As many know, the attempts to remove Lugar started in early 2011, but really gained steam when national groups got involved in the race and expanded the reach of the grassroots organizations wanting to challenge Lugar.

Incumbents: Other than Lugar, last night appears to have been a great night for incumbent members of Congress.  All the incumbents in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia won renomination last night.

States

Gay Marriage: North Carolina voters easily passed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and civil unions in the state.  In this overwhelming victory for the amendment, North Carolina became the 30th state to ban gay marriage.  It appears the amendment drove turnout as well as 60 percent of voters voted to approve the amendment.

Wisconsin: In the recall primary to face Governor Scott Walker, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett won with 58 percent of the vote.  Barrett faced Walker in 2010 and defeated several other opponents including organized labor's candidate, Kathleen Falk.

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Morning Political Roundup for May 9, 2012
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IN-8
Amazing how very conservative the primary electorate is in this somewhat swingy district. Bucshon only won 58-42.

By the way, what are the Mourdock numbers by CD? I would really appreciate it.
Same with a county results link for WI.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


Speaking of Bucshon
His vote totals at 58% were still quite a bit higher than all Ds combined.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
IN-8
The very conservative electorate might have been due to Mourdock.  He is from IN-8 and might have driven turnout down there.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
IN-8
Was always that way. See Hostettler John.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Looks like
Mourdock got over two thirds in IN-8.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I think it is more
of unsettled primary business & regional factors then conservative versus more conservative. On a personal level it is hard to get over a narrow loss as the other guy would likely be congressman right now except for a few thousand primary votes or was it even closer?  Okay this guy lost and in two years Buschon will waltz in.  That's a typical pattern. Of course you also see people like Todd Young face no primary foes as a freshman.  That is typical as well.  

I do not see Buschon as a Jean Schmidt type congressman so after this year I suspect he will coast.  


[ Parent ]
That was Hostetler's district for years
That's a district which is populist, and has some very deep social conservative roots. That's the district that went for John Hostletler several times, although narrowly. He beat McCloskey largely on the gun issue when Bloomington (Indiana University) was in the district.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Hometown effect or
friends and Family was huge last night. Dalton won huge in W NC, Nourdock won huge in Southern IN, Rouzen won huge in his home county and so forth in nearly every race.

There were so many historical patterns of this it is hard to list them all.  Look at primaries in IN2 or IN5 or IN6 plus NC US house primaries. That placed an effect in the closeness of IN8 & NC2's GOP primaries.  IN8 was a mini replay of 2010's primaries and this will be the last serious primary for Buschon while Ellmers lost or did less well in new areas for her.  She too will coast in the rest of the decade.

Here's my friend and family/hometown affect for 2012 prediction.

NC Gov is a big plus for GOP. McCrory lost in 2008 due to a huge regional loss in Eastern NC.  No hometown heros there for him to face in 2012. Dalton won big in W NC but McCrory will likely win there close to his GOP levels in 2012. So IMO regionally Dalton was weaker then Etheridge.

In IN Mourdock has that Southern Indiana thing going for him like Bayh and Hartke had.  Basically Donnelly has his home county going for him as regionalism is not a factor in Northern Indy.  Moreover indy suburbs will go republican in 2012 so Mourdock is a big winner in regionalism.


Ilario Pantano: What a sore loser
After the Associated Press called the race for Rouzer late Tuesday night, Pantano refused to give any interviews to WWAY or any other media outlets at his Election Night party at Mayfaire. Pantano did say on his way out that he was not confident in the AP polling results. The state Board of Elections results show Rouzer won 48.5 percent of the vote to Pantano's 44.5 percent. The margin of victory was nearly 3,000 votes.

http://www.wwaytv3.com/2012/05...

A guy who worked on Wall Street should know how numbers work. This is the kind of attitude that would have helped Mike McIntyre possibly beat him (which would have been 100% unacceptable).


Sore losers in NC7
damaged Pantano's 2010 efforts.

I think he comes around once he gets over his sore.  Losing is hard and we often are not prepared to deal with this in life.  


[ Parent ]
Watch what you say
Pantano is a good guy. Yes Ilario worked on Wall Street for Goldman Sachs but left his high paying job to re-join the Marine Corp after 9/11. How many people do you know who do that. So watch would you slander with Occupy Wall Street retoric.
And furthermore, there is nothing wrong with a candidate wanting to be sure of the final returns before making a statement to the press. Hardly call this behavior a sore loser. We've seen plenty of election mistakes happen so you cant fault him for waiting a day or two.

[ Parent ]
Not using OWS rhetoric, Izengabe
All I said is that if he's smart enough to work on Wall Street, he should be smart enough to know when to concede.

[ Parent ]
Dewhurst up 51-16 in TX-SEN
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...
Not his internal poll, so it should have more credibility.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Poll is by group that endorsed Dewhurst
"The poll was released Tuesday by Conservative Republicans of Texas, a socially conservative group that has endorsed Dewhurst in the race. The Republican polling firm Dresner Wickers Barber Sanders surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. "

Remember the poll that had Lugar up by 2 last week was a group that endorsed Lugar.

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
I actually believe in the IN poll that he was only down 10, but the way these things work is that when all the momentum shifts, you lose by double.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Mourdock
Won all the undecideds.
Lugar in the poll? 38%. He got? 39%.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

Undecideds Do Sometimes...
..."all break" against the incumbent. It definitely happens. Sometimes. You just can't count on it happening, and whether they do or not really depends on macro-factors. Of course, sometimes, all the undecideds break to the incumbent - that also can happen.  

[ Parent ]
Much much more likely to happen in a primary


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
WV-Pres: Haha, reminds me
of Clinton losing delegates to LaRouche.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Amazing
Scott Walker got 99% or more in the primary in the 3 dark red suburban MKE counties.

25, Male, R, NY-10

It just shows you that if voters could have written-in Scott Walker
in the Dem primary he would have won by a landslide.  

[ Parent ]
Well the same could
be said that if all the people who showed up to vote for Walker voted for Isaac Weix we would've defeated the real democrat.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Obama's Path to Victory in North Carolina
Is clear from the Amendment, though not clear whether it will work.

PPP's last poll had it passing 55-39. SUSA had it up 57-37. Adding 100% of undecideds to YES we get

Race
Whites 59-41 Yes
African Americans 65-35 Yes
Others 68-32 Yes(probably wrong)

Simply assuming that African Americans are 18% of the electorate, changing that from 65-35 to 95-5 gets No/Obama to 51.2%. And thats a very GOP-friendly turnout picture(they are 21% of registered voters).

Obama needed a path to 35% of the white vote. His path is clear. He needs to win about 85% of the NO vote last night, and combine it with the 95% or so of the African American vote he would win even if he came out as gay.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


well
Amendment 1 did very poorly in the white parts of Mecklenberg.  Those parts voted for McCain and are probably going to vote for Romney. Especially the bankers.

The student vote also isn't THAT lopsided.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
big problem with your analysis
PPP found that whites favored the amendment more strongly than blacks. So Obama may need 95% of the white NO vote.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
SUSA and PPP
Both had white more opposed.

SUSA had whites 57-39 YES in a 57-37 result
PPP had them 56-41 in a 55-39 Result

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I think one reason
this issue under polls on the anti-side is that folks who oppose  are unwilling to openly express views on this issue.  It is no longer politically correct to be on one side of this issue.  So whether by phone to a live body or punching preferences some folks do not express a polling view that is politically incorrect.  I know I would not take a poll on the issue. In CA people who are openly against have been targeted for boycott.


[ Parent ]
No
PPP had blacks at 53-43 and whites at 56-41.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Not in their last poll
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Whites 56-41
Blacks 55-35

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
The numbers as a whole aren't as cut and dry as
you'd think.

Just a few points. Some of my friends for instance, are 100% opposed to Obama, but they voted against the amendment purely because they're "libertarian" and say government shouldn't be involved in marriage, period.

Another point to consider is that while most knew, or had a good idea of what the amendment did, some where still confused. In fact, there was, if I remember correctly, around 7% of the electorate that thought this amendment was trying to approve gay marriage, and therefore, they were going to vote against it, even though they're 100% against gay marriage/civil unions.

It won't be as cut and dry for Obama's reelection as your trying to think of it, because there are still a lot of factors that will make it a hard road for the President to win.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


[ Parent ]
MA-Pres: Obama up 21
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Hopefully, he can at least win Plymouth.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


What the hell
Brown and Warren barely changed, but Romney lost 10% on Obama?

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Because the original Rasmussen poll
showing Obama up only by about 11 was not serious.

[ Parent ]
I'll bet you
The final result is closer to 11% than 21%.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Doubtful
I think Gore/Bush is the best case for you guys there.  Unless something happens that turns the race into Andy's favorite of 1988, I can't see Romney getting near 45%.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Home state
It defies logic that every other Presidential candidate gets a home state bump and Mitt Romney doesn't. Reagan, and even Nixon, got home state bumps in California. Even Walter Mondale, who won nothing, got a home state bump.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Home State
The problem with that analogy is that is MA really Mitts home state?  Or is it Michigan?  Or New Hampshire?  Or California?

Home state bump or not, I don't think Mitt hits 45% in MA.  Feel free to disagree.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Now you're just being contrary
Mitt owns homes in both New Hampshire and California, but he's not, and has never been, a resident of either. He's lived in Massachusetts since going to Harvard Business School in the 1970's. He had a successful business there. He was governor there. I'm pretty sure people there identify Mitt as being from Massachusetts. I'm sure there were a lot of people in Illinois who never heard of Barack Obama before 2004, but he still got a home state bump throughout the state.

State of birth is more tenuous. Obama got a nice bump in Hawaii, but he was identified as being from there. It seems that there may be a home state bump in Michigan, although the meme is that his opposition to the auto bailout will cost him the state. They use quotes from the President of the UAW to support that. I don't think he was getting the UAW President's vote anyway.

I prefer to approach the vote from a 50-50 (or 49.3-49.3) national distribution. We don't know how the national vote is going to go and an even split is safe. It's how R+ and D+ is usually measured. That'd give Romney 3.5 points. Add in another 3 points for home state and you get

Obama 55.4%
Romney 43.0%

Even two party that'd put him at 43.7%. So I agree that 45% is likely out of reach in a 50-50 year.

However, that could change if Massachusetts is indeed moving to the right the way the last several Presidential elections indicate. You may disagree that any or all these things will happen. But if Romney splits the vote 50-50, he gets the home state bump, and the state continues to move right 45% is doable.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Bush/Gore??
Bush took just 33% in 2000. There's no way Romney would do worse than McCain at 36%, or 2004 Bush at 37%.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Whoops
For some reason I thought it was 59-39.

I expect Romney to do better than Bush in 2000 obviously.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Right now, I'm thinking 59-40 in Massachusetts
Which would be the strongest GOP performance since Bush held Clinton to a 19-pointer in 1992.

Obama, I would think, nets somewhere between 55 and 60 percent. I can't fathom him matching his 2008 turn with the state's former governor his opponent. Likewise, I don't think many MA Democrats, not even Scott Brown crossovers, will be inclined to back Romney.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Brown will have a small upticket effect
In that his campaign will get Republican voters to the polls, while Romney will put no effort into the state. This will be the first Presidential election in my memory in which there will be a Republican GOTV operation in Massachusetts.

Romney will get a home-state bounce, but a small one, perhaps most akin to what Kerry got in 2004 (he overperformed Generic D by a point or two that year). I think 42% is his ceiling in MA, if he's winning nationwide, and his floor is probably 37%.


[ Parent ]
If Romney is winning 350 Electoral votes
Romney would win Washington and Oregon before he got within 11 in Massachusetts. Since it would require winning basically the same demographic of voter.


27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
In a general sense
I guess that's right about WA & OR.  Of course WA & OR also has the GOP base that MA does not have.  Just look at congressional and legislative results in WA & OR as opposed to MA.  

In general terms you run one type of campaign to get to 50% in OR or WA while it takes a very different campaign to get to 50% in MA.

You can win 95% of Rs plus 15% of Ds plus 55% of indies to win in WA & OR. That takes one type of campaign.

In MA you need 95% of Rs--70% of indies plus 30% of Ds to win.  That's a whole different campaign.  So yes in theory a campaign to win 50% in OR & WA could up at 45% in MA.  The difference is that you cannot try to win 50% in MA as it would a left of center campaign for Romney and that's a path to 270 for him.  

So what tends to happen in real blue states is that the GOP puts up very little effort.  So while I can see Romney polling 45% in MA getting there on election day is unlikely.  


[ Parent ]
It's not the usual swing
There are three factors that I think will get Romney closer to 11% than 21%.

1) National swing away from Democrats. Barring a huge failure on the part of the Romney Campaign, I think this race is going to be closer than the 7% national margin Obama won with in 2008.

2) While Romney is not extremely popular in Massachusetts unlike that of many other native sons, he'll get a boost for having Massachusetts after his name. Not much, but it will be something.

3) Scott Brown will be running a multi-million dollar GOTV campaign to find every last right of center voter in the state, and make sure they vote. This is not a normal circumstance for Massachusetts. Usually during Presidential election years, there is little to no campaign activity at all (I'm totally serious, usually the only activity happens in Gubernatorial years). The folks Brown will be getting out to the polls, while not universally, will be voting Romney far more likely than Obama. That's going to help Romney's floor in the state.

While I don't think the race will get much under 10%, I wouldn't be surprised if Romney gets 42-45% of the vote. At the worst, I think Romney will crack 40%.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Rothman ties Pascrell to Romney/Christie
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

"Who wants more tax cuts for the rich? Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich and Bill Pascrell," says the narrator in the ad.

Lol?

27, R, PA-07.


I Do Love This Race
I don't like Pascrell at all, and care not a whit(sic?) about Rothman, but this primary race is epic LOLs. At this point, isn't there some way they can both lose?!...  ;)  

[ Parent ]
Awesome IN county results chart.


25, Male, R, NY-10

Wow
Lugar only won in 2 counties? Boone (50.5%) and Marion (54.2%). I'm impressed with Mourdock's performance. This was an overwhelming acceptance by Indiana's GOP electorate.  

[ Parent ]
Open primary
He probably got 2 thirds among Rs.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
IOW, Donnelly Doesn't Have a Prayer, IMO... (nt)


[ Parent ]
WV Delegates

I'm not sure where the "at least one delegate" formulation being used by the media is coming from.  Based on last night's results, Keith Judd would be entitled to many more delegates than one if he is eligible to receive delegates.  Here is the breakdown:

1st District - Obama 5/Judd 3
2nd District - Obama 5/Judd 3
3rd District - Obama 4/Judd 4
At-Large - Obama 5/Judd 3
Pledged PLEOs - Obama 2/Judd 2

That gives you a total of Obama 21/Judd 15.  


He should have filed delegates
Can he still?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Difficulties

I don't know if he can still file delegates.  Prior to his fame today, I would imagine that being in prison made it very difficult to engage in effective delegate recruitment

[ Parent ]
As for Wisconsin
PPP is going into the field this weekend so we should have results on Monday. It should be interesting to see if Barrett gets a bump.

Walker/Martinez 2016

OR-AG
Both candidates leading in own internals; pot looks to be main issue. http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

R - MD-7

It should read "the general dislike of his behavior."
Also, I thought that Amendment One got 61%, not 60%.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

It did, 61.04 to 38.96
http://results.enr.clarityelec...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Running scared
White House announces no press briefing today - no Q&A on NC-gay marriage vote or on the West Virginia Primary

25, Male, R, NY-10

Absolutely Correct Interpretation, IMO
That's exactly right.

They'll probably try to duck talking for the rest of the week...  


[ Parent ]
Doubtful
That's too long to go.

WV is a non issue, all Carney has to point to is Obama getting more votes than Romney, Judd coming close to Romney etc.

As far as the Gay Marriage thing, it really seems to have exploded on them and not from the right or the center but from the left.  It seems the left has all of a sudden grown tired of waiting.

I personally can wait on him to announce until after the election BUT I would be proud of him if he came out today for it.  If he doesn't come out today for it, I don't think this goes away easily.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Nothing with that
WV has many more registered Ds. That's all.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Democratic talking points
is what he means.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
WV
is a big embarrassment (and pretty funny to boot) that can't be spun away. The talking points won't work, except to the koolaid drinkers.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
What about the 21%
no preference in NC?  Makes me think that the 15% D number for Romney that PPP is pitching could be low. I would suspect that the D primary in NC would be a bit more liberal then D's as a whole in that state.

For those counting in NC--here are the vote totals

755 Obama
199 No preference (D primary)
965 Votes in GOP primary

So how does that path for Obama look in NC?

I hate to rely on my memory but how did indies vote in NC in 2008? I leave that to others to look up.

I am thinking even with the major D primary for Gov and the meaningless R primary for President the blend of voters on Tuesday were anti Obama?


[ Parent ]
Those NC
vote counts are in thousands

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
Brown needs to stay positive as long as possible, that is unless oppo research turns up something so huge that it would just about kill Warren's chances, and something that big can probably be taken care of by a drama-loving press. People on here have said that Bay Staters like 'happy' politicians, so Brown should stay positive. His next ad should highlight specific moderate stances that he's taken. If he can risk it, he might cut an ad comparing some of those stances and votes to examples of Warren not being moderate (being very left-wing).

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

WI-SSEN Recalls
Were any of those primarys yesterday?  If so how did the fake dems do vs. the real ones?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

It's funny
the most Republican district gave the real democrat the best outcome.

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
They had 28-36%
Which I think is a little worse than what the 2011 fake Dems got. There seemed to be less of an effort from the GOP this time.

[ Parent ]
28,32,36,36
Rs didn't bother this time. Most just took an R ballot for Walker. And the 28% which was the weakest fake showing happened in the safest seat (Fitzgerald). No correlation.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Everything was on one ballot
Republican and Democratic Governor, Democratic Lt. Governor and the state senate districts (if you lived in one)

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Aha
People just didn't bother. There was no Walker effort. The Fitz district is evidence. It's a dark red district.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I found the county results
that you've been asking for

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f...

Walker/Martinez 2016


[ Parent ]
Sessions thinks GOP
will expand its' majority.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

I am of that opinion, at least of today, so its' all good.  


Wait, what?
You think we're going to gain seats in Congress? Why do you believe so?

[ Parent ]
It's possible
Keep in mind that there was 222 R leaning Obama-McCain seats and 204 D leaning seats. There are now 236-192. The number of Democratic held seats that are R+7 or greater has gone from 6-12. A bunch of those retired. So, in a 50-50 year the GOP would probably lose just a few seats.

My prediction right now is D+5. While Republicans gaining seats isn't the most likely scenario, it isn't an unreasonable expectation. If the playing field tilts a bit for the Republicans, they'll likely pick up some seats. It's tough to imagine it'll be over 250 but it's certainly doable.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Why Dick Lugar lost
Best analysis
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Two biggest winners on Tuesday
are Orin Hatch & Bob Corker. They gain as Lugar loses.

Hatch, if re-elected, will be senior Senate Republican.  He would be in line to be President Pro-Term if the GOP gets the senate majority. 4th in line for President plus another fancy office for him.

Bob Corker will be senior Republican on Foreign relations and could be chairman in 2013. Bob Kerry had to wait 22 Years to chair this committee while Corker could in line for this committee chair after 6 years!!!  Wow.  That is if the GOP wins the senate majority.  


What I don't get
Is why hasn't the Tea Party targeted people like Corker and Shelby?  I understand with Lugar there were things he did that upset the base, but Corker and Shelby are 2 non pure Republicans in states where Republicans wouldn't have to worry about the seat going away.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Corker Probably Should Have Been Targetted...
But Shelby's not worth the effort (which would be fruitless) - better to just wait him out, and get a real conservative in there as his replacement.  

[ Parent ]
What about
Chambliss?  Do you think he will be targeted?

I'm surprised Wicker wasn't as well.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I Would Definitely Like To See Chambliss Primaried (nt)


[ Parent ]
It's about candidates
Indiana had a serious challenger for Lugar. If there's a serious challenger, there can be a serious challenge. Lugar was clearly out of touch with his state. At least those guys maintain a residence in the state.

I don't know if any of the people you mention have gotten the grassroots upset. You can bet Lindsey Graham will get a primary challenger.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Chambliss/Isakson

I'd like to see them replaced, as (IIRC) they're both into corporate welfare and earmarks.  Wicker, too, but Mississippians do love their porkers, so that might be harder.  Corker I have less of a problem with.  

[ Parent ]
Graham
He's the next one the tea party will be gunning for, no doubt about it.  Other than Franken, he's the Senator I want to see out of DC the most.

As for the others, I don't know.  I'd love to see Corker/Wicker/Chambliss/Isakson replaced with Tea Partiers.  I don't think it's likely though unless a top notch challenger pops up.  They just haven't upset the base over the years like Lugar/Graham/Murkowski have.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
Obama For Gay Marriage
According to all the rumors this looks very likely.

Obviously skipping the arguement for or against SSM, how does this effect him Electorally?

Will it hurt him much in OH, VA, NC, FL etc. or were the voters who were upset by this already going to vote him?  Will this turn any fence sitters into Romney supporters?

I don't think it will, but it will likely fire up the bases on both sides a bit more.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


This Should Hurt Him
Obama increasingly seems to be turning C.W. on its head - rather than "running to the Center" for the General, it is increasingly looks like he's running further and further to the Left.

This won't work.

I think most people around know that I thought Romney didn't have much of a chance against Obama. But Obama's p***-poor campaign is starting to change my mind.

If Obama continues on the political path he's going, he's not just going to lose - he's likely to lose badly.

He really is Carter II...  


[ Parent ]
Romney Against Civil Unions
Is apparently also news today.  Sets a real divergent set of ideas on the issue.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I don't think it changes a thing
Most low-interest voters probably already assumed Obama was pro-SSM. Most people who actively support gay marriage are already fully in the Obama camp, and I doubt he will lose any anti-SSM Democrats over this. SoCons are already upset with Obama over a whole host of other issues, so this doesn't change their  perspective.

It would be a different matter if Obama actually campaigned on national gay marriage legislation, which I don't think he'll do. But that could shake up the calculus a bit.


[ Parent ]
Undermines Flip-Flopper Attack

I don't think that the substance of Obama's gay marriage position will affect the election results much at all.  Changing his position, however, will undermine his campaign's ability to go after Mitt Romney as a flip-flopper.    

[ Parent ]
Well
I don't think Obama was going to campaign against Romney with the flip flopper meme anyway, but If they were to I don't think this hurts that.  Obama has admitted for some time he had a hard time with his decision on the issue, was open to changing in the future etc.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Really?

If you engage in the most high-profile flip-flop of 2012, you don't think that it undermines your ability to effectively attack your opponent as an unprincipled flip-flopper?  

[ Parent ]
Well
I doubt he uses this attack either.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Few reasons why
Obama was never a hardcore Anti-Gay Marriage person.  He never campaigned for any ballot initiatives and it was never the focus of any of his campaigns.

Also like someone else said, I think most people think Obama already supported it.

But my main point stands.  I don't think Obama goes with the flip flopper meme against Romney.  Now if Romney tries to hit Obama like you are suggesting, then who knows.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
To Clarify

I tend to agree that Obama won't emphasize the flip flopper meme against Romney (and think that flipping on gay marriage makes it even less likely that he will do so).  

[ Parent ]
Obama pretended to be hardcore
Saying he didn't "believe in" gay marriage because God is in the mix. To change your position to (1) say you now think something exists that once did not, and (2) that God should be ignored on an issue on which he's clearly spoken, is a major flip flop.

Of course, Obama never really opposed gay marriage. He just pretended to, and invoked God in doing so. If he's willing to go directly against God on this issue, I think it's safe to say he's willing to be called a flip flopper.

(FYI I don't disagree with Obama that God opposes gay marriage, but in any event wouldn't have used that belief to prevent people from getting married).

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
I think Obama's
position is very clear and unchanged from the beginning.

He is for whatever state law in a particular state. He is against any pro traditional marriage plan at any state level because it is not needed and divisive. So any new laws like the NC one is bad.   He is for any state amendment that redefines marriage because it is what the people in that state want. So any changes on the one side is good. He will tell you that his views on this matter has never wavered or changed. I hope this clears up the matter.  


[ Parent ]
It's Official
Will be interesting to see how Romney hits him on it.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I don't see it as an attack
Romney is focusing on economic issues. I don't see the advantage for him to get in a discussion here. That's not to say that the campaign won't use it as an issue in swing areas that oppose same sex marriage.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes
It seems like Obama is the one who wants to talk about cultural issues.  It is the only way for him to win at this point is for him to paint Romney as an extremist.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
16% of Obama bundlers are gay
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Eventually he had to actually move to the position of his supporters.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Bingo. Obama needs the $$$ for his campaign
From his gay bundlers and also Hollywood money to come flowing to his warchest.

[ Parent ]
Swiss Parliament
http://m.startribune.com/news/...

That would be absolutely hilarious

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


It's official
In 2008, I had no involvement in politics, knew nobody, and had contributed to no one. I was a convention delegate. In 2012, I know the Romney regional chair, who submitted my name, and have even gone to Las Vegas for Mitt. I will not be a delegate. Apparently Governor Pete Wilson will be one of the representatives from my district. I don't think he lives in it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Ouch
Sorry to hear LCL.

We don't agree on a lot Politically but you are a GREAT voice for Romney and his campaign, you certainly should have been one.  Wilson being one is just silly, especially if he doesn't live there.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Thank you
Those are kind words. The list contains a lot of well known names, which is what you'd normally assume.

I derived a certain identity from being a delegate last time and I've certainly gotten a lot of value about it. My involvement with the campaign and this election isn't hinged on such a designation. Unfortunately, I won't be blogging any inside dope from the convention on RRH.

If I'd only been a Santorum supporter, I could've easily been on his list. I doubt he submitted one with enough names. Of course he wouldn't have gotten votes to win my district.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Pete Wilson
Looks like he is living in Cheviot Hills

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Then he is in the district
I went to his website and there is talk about the Hoover Institute and Sacramento. Wilson is, of course, from San Diego. I couldn't think of a reason he'd be living here.

The commission removed areas like Hancock Park, Thai Town, Los Feliz, and Koreatown and replaced them with Cheviot Hills, Century City, and Mar Vista. I really didn't notice the addition of so much of the Westside, since the Westside is Waxman country.

Karen Bass is the only California congressman without any opponents. It's hard for me to believe that no one chose to challenge her. The district already had the Upscale Black neighborhoods that Herb Wesson decided to steal from Bernard Parks. There are now two movie studios in the district and it's wealthier. The district remains majority minority but it isn't what you'd normally expect in majority minority.

It probably isn't more Republican. The areas they took out were 70% Obama and that's similar to the new areas. The African American parts of the district were 90-95% Obama.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
SSM
This will hurt Obama. Contrary to polls (PPP also said yeaterday that he doesn't believe his own polls on it), most Americans are against it.

25, Male, R, NY-10

how it could hurt
It now gives the Santorum Evangelical voters (that many on the left AND right have said will not warm to a moderate Mormon and they will sit on their hands in November) a single, black-and-white, concrete reason to vote for Romney.  How many of them were going to sit on their hands?  I don't know.  But there are fewer of them than there were 10 minutes ago.

[ Parent ]
Will hurt on the margins but
everyone already knows this was his position. You can bet his campaign has poll tested everything he does, this is just a scripted announcement. Prob. will cost him a few more voters than he gains, but this is not on most people's top 5 issues, and will not decide the Election.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Doesn't a majority of black folks
oppose same sex marriage?

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Not according to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in March
They found African-American support for marriage equality to be 50% to 41%. (A dramatic increase from their last poll 2 1/2 years prior, which found opposition by a 2-1 margin. (The same poll also found Latino support at 55% to 30%)

While the individual poll itself is certainly debatable, the reality is that black opinion on the issue is very much in flux, just like the rest of the country.

But from a point of view of how African-Americans will vote for President, it will have zero impact - very few black voters are single-issue voters on gay marriage rights, and certainly it will not break the incredibly strong support that Obama receives from the African-American community.  


[ Parent ]
Agree
Obama is not losing a single black over this position.  This is about driving white liberals to the polls who are upset with the president.

Obama seems to be convinced he has a base turnout problem.  His actions as of late suggest this is his strategy.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Ryan
you absolutely hit the nail on the head.  Here are my three points to follow up on that.

1st does anyone think traditional marriage between a man and a woman has been a "core value" for Obama?  Was his views on the subject in 2004 & 2008 all about winning? I could ask if Obama has any core values but I leave that for another day.

2nd look at this last ad from Obama.  Did he name a single bill or measure that he could lay claim to?  Is there a single bill that he can campaign on?  Oh he has issues but he has done nothing that he will campaign on.  Therefore since he has nothing to stake a campaign on he must gin up some liberal support somewhere.  Here is it.  I think even liberals see this as a cynical ploy.

3rd does anyone doubt that he has polled and focus grouped this move?  It will not inspire conservatives any more to turnout.  We are already to go in record numbers in 2012. This move is all about a few suburban voters in key states as well as liberals turning out.  With Obama its all about 270. I guess this is a gamble but losing more votes in Alabama matters little.  It is all about PA & MI.  


[ Parent ]
Agree
One more point... Obama has to make this election about social issues.  He will not win an election not about social issues.  In fact, the economic numbers in a few polls over the last week or two point out that an election on the economy could lead to a rout for Romney.

For Obama to win, he has to scare people in places like Chester County, Pennsylvania that Romney is somehow some social conservative nutjob whose going to oppress everyone.  

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
well
There's a difference between dubious junk polling and between how people vote.

You can take a look at how black dominated precincts voted yesterday if you want your answer.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Wall Street Journal is "dubious junk polling"?

We're not talking Zogby here, they are credible.

I wouldn't draw any stronger conclusion about national trends from how African-Americans in North Carolina voted yesterday than I would by looking at how heavily white precincts voted and assuming that indicated how national white opinion lines up. The south is conservative on these questions - black or white.


[ Parent ]
paper polling is useless
When polling fails to reflect actual performance at the ballot box,  it's the polling that's wrong. Nobody gets anything for winning polls.

PPP (+16) was off by 6 points (+22)...to say nothing of the laughably wrong narrative they were trying to foster.


27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Probably so
But they don't vote on the issue. Obama won't see his support erode by more than a fraction in the black community because of this. Just like everyone else, people have more important issues to worry abbout in day to day life.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
SSM
I'm sure this has nothing whatsoever to do with WV.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
ah
He just flip flopped.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Who Are Swing Voters?
1. Working-Class Whites - It marginally hurts here but they are voting on economic issues

2. High-income whites - this is where Obama has eroded the most and these are his target with this policy. It needs to be noted, only half of Obama's policy involved his own position. The other half is a trap for Mitt Romney, which will be sprung tomorrow when Romney reiterates his opposition to both marriage and civil unions, as well as his support for a federal constitutional amendment. That will put Romney further from the center than Obama.

Those most opposed to Gay Marriage include

Religious Voters- Guaranteed Romney votes

African Americans - Guaranteed Obama votes

Basically Americans are divided

40% No recognition
25% Civil Unions
35% Marriage

But around 7% of that no Recognition is African American Voters. With them Obama now has a base of around 43% against Romney's 32% on this issue. Romney needs about 70%+ of Civil Union supporters, and that battle will be fought on Obama's turf because Romney's position, against Civil Unions and for a Constitutional Amendment, is further from these voters than Obama's. And if Romney compromises, he makes a far more blatent flip-flop than Obama.

Furthermore, a brief look at Restore Our Future's fundraising indicates that Obama has probably cut Romney's fundraising by a third if not more. The real target is not Hollywood but New York and Wall Street. And the goal is not support for Obama but neutrality.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Further from the center?
I've never heard that Mitt Romney supports a Constitutional amendment supporting marriage as between one man and one woman. I don't know of any Republican politician who has made this a central plank of their election strategy. For the most part, Republicans believe it's a state issue. Supporting a Federal amendment would be contrary to conservative philosophy. I know some support it, but it's a minority. And a smaller minority who are pushing it. I'd be shocked if Romney came out in favor of such an amendment.

Since North Carolina voted 61%-39% in favor of their gay marriage amendment and I'm not aware of any state that has voted in favor of gay marriage. If you're on the side of the 30 states that have voted against it and the other guy is on the side of the 0 states that have voted for it, I think he's okay.

I don't think Romney is further from the center.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Eh
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

"This campaign cycle he signed a National Organization for Marriage pledge in support of a federal marriage amendment."

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
A pledge is one thing
I don't know of any Republican politician who has made this a central plank of their election strategy.

Signing a pledge from the National Organization for Marriage is far different than pushing such an amendment. I'm sure he wouldn't veto it if it came on his desk, but I'm not aware that he has publicly talked about pushing such an amendment. I doubt that you can push Romney as being further from the center on a pledge when no state has ever voted in favor of same sex marriage.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Assuming
You are making the assumption that Mitt Romney will behave like Rick Santorum and latch onto this issue for days.  Romney has shown an unwillingness to do that even in the context of a Republican primary.

This is what I call the Rick Santorum/Tom Corbett Paradox.  Both are very socially conservative.  One talks about it all the time while the other does not.  Social issues only matter if you bring them up.  

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
On This Issue
Romney is further from the center.  Most polling that I've seen, when the public is presented with Gay Marriage, Civil Unions or nothing, like 60%+ support GM/CU over nothing.  Obama now supports both of those, Romney neither.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Not exactly
"Civil union" is a term that means something different to each person responding to a poll.

My view is the domestic-partnership benefits, hospital visitation rights, and the like are appropriate but that the others are not... If a civil union is identical to marriage other than in the name, I don't support that. But I certainly recognize that hospital visitation rights and benefits of that nature may well be appropriate. And states are able to make provisions for determination of those kinds of rights as well as, if you will, benefits that might accrue to state workers.

Two poll questions:

1. "Do you support civil unions?"

2. "Mitt Romney believes that gay couple should receive domestic partnership benefits, but disagrees with civil unions if that term is used as a substitute for marriage. Do you agree with Mitt Romney?"

I'd bet that both questions would get more than 50% in a poll, perhaps in the same poll.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Marriage
"Romney reiterates his opposition to both marriage and civil unions"

Romney supports marriage, it is Barack Obama who has come out against marriage by supporting an extreme redefinition of the institution.


[ Parent ]
don't start a flame war.


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Heh
I love the unintentional pun.

[ Parent ]
Hmmmm
If you attack a liberal talking point of faux equality, he's starting a flame war....  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
but
everyone has known for years that Obama has been privately supported SSM, he just wasn't willing to make it public until now.

So, it seems that there's no effect.

Also, for those that this actually is the top issue for the presidential race, they've usually already aligned with one party or another.
(Few people expect bills dealing with SSM to actually reach the president's desk any time in the next several years; both pro & anti SSM bills would just die of a senate filibuster.)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
You Guys Are Acting Like...
...Low information voters always new Obama was for gay marriage. (Hey, can someone ask him if Obama has a problem with polygamy, and if so why?...) Anyway, I don't think that's true at all.

Everyone here is a high-information political junkie, so they probably know about Obama than most of his supporters do.

I can guarantee you that lots of voters don't know the score on Obama's positions, and at least some of them will be turned off by this.

And if you think this doesn't make a difference? - I had no intention of voting for Romney; but this movie by Obama probably will get me to pull the level for Romney. Obama is just too dangerous to have around.  


[ Parent ]
AP Poll: Obama: 50%, Romney 42% 5/3-5/7
49% Dem; 37% GOP sample

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-...


well
That includes independent leaners.

Actual registration seems to be D+10 here. No, we aren't likely to win a D+10 electorate.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
May ads from the Chamber of Commerce

Senate: FL-Sen (anti-Sen. Bill Nelson), HI-Sen (pro-Linda Lingle), MO-Sen (anti-Sen. Claire McCaskill), OH-Sen (anti-Sen. Sherrod Brown)

House: FL-09 (anti-Alan Grayson), FL-22 (anti-Lois Frankel), GA-12 (pro-Rep. John Barrow), IL-12 (pro-Jason Plummer), IL-17 (pro-Rep. Bobby Schilling), MI-01 (pro-Rep. Dan Benishek), MI-06 (pro-Rep. Fred Upton), MN-08 (pro-Rep. Chip Cravaack), NY-01 (anti-Rep. Tim Bishop), NY-18 (pro-Rep. Nan Hayworth), NY-19 (pro-Rep. Chris Gibson), NY-21 (anti-Rep. Bill Owens), NY-24 (pro-Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle), NY-25 (anti-Rep. Louise Slaughter), NY-27 (anti-Rep. Kathy Hochul), OH-06 (pro-Rep. Bill Johnson), RI-01 (pro-Brendan Doherty)


(h/t David Nir)

Watch them all, here: http://www.friendsoftheuschamb...

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


NE-Sen: Palin Endorses Fischer
http://www.rollcall.com/news/s...

Whether or not this is enough for her to win, IDK. I don't think she still has her 2010 magic that propelled Ayotte, O'Donnell, and others. However, this is definitely a blow to Stenberg. He needs all national conservative leaders behind him, and now one of the biggest ones if for Fischer.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Gay Republicans ain't buying it
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosieg...

Of course Obama wasn't winning GOProud votes before this anyway.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


anyone who is in a party that
mostly opposes gay marriage and is gay is probably in so much alignment with Republicans on economic policy that they've never even considered switching.

If they were gonna switch, they'd have done it twenty years ago.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Who is Eric Hovde?
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

Honestly, I'd never heard the name before reading this article.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Rich businessman.
He's been flooding the air with ads.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
A rich businessman
Who has decided to pour a ton of his money into the Wisconsin senate race in hopes of repeating what Johnson did last cycle.  This is the first I've heard of him gaining any traction at all.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Hovde
He's had some pretty good ads and this poll does not surprise me. Despite Neumann's national backing, I have to feel (and did before this poll) that this is a Hovde vs. Thompson race. The question is if Hovde can consolidate enough support to win. Luckily, I think if he does win the primary, he's pretty electable over Baldwin. He's not a bombthrower.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Self-funders do worse than others
Because they don't get all the donations and volunteers that others do. People become less engaged since he doesn't need them. I'm not sure someone in the 1% who has no government experience is the best candidate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I think it's
indisputable that Thompson is the best GOP candidate.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
All the candidate needs is
Walker's endorsement and they will get 80% of the vote!

Walker/Martinez 2016

[ Parent ]
Heh: Obama "Gay for Pay"
Essentially sums up his reversal: He endorsed gay marriage to please gay donors
http://freebeacon.com/gay-for-...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


15 Interesting things about Rob Portman
These are actually pretty interesting. I am now convinced he is the Dos Equis man
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrew...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


if he hadn't worked in the OMB
during Bush's "deficits don't matter" phase, I think he'd be an indisputable frontrunner for the VP on the competence side (as opposed to the identity politics side, where Rubio, Ayotte, and Martinez are leading the pack).

Despite being super wealthy, he definitely seems to have a background that could appeal to blue collar swing voters.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Please
The Dos Equis man was revealed as Tom Coburn long ago.

[ Parent ]
Suffolk FL poll
Obama +1.
Both Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush could move voters to Romney. A Romney-Bush ticket would lead Obama-Biden by 2 points, and a Romney-Rubio ticket would lead Obama-Biden by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent.

http://suffolk.edu/51092.html

25, Male, R, NY-10


Very comprehensive poll
http://suffolk.edu/images/cont...

Registered voters.

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Rubio and Bush
Are very popular. Obama +1 approval. Mitt -3 fav.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
If This is a RV Poll...
...Than Romney's actually ahead in FL.

Which, IIRC, is what other FL polls have shown lately.  


[ Parent ]
Oceguera makes case for … Heck
Jon Ralston seems to view his lofty perch in Nevada with the idea that his job is to keep both parties. I've certainly never felt him a friend to conservatives. I've also never heard of him giving an endorsement. He's so disgusted with John Oceguera, he almost does that.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


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