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Political Roundup For May 17, 2012

by: SCRep

Thu May 17, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

Crossroads GPS: Crossroads GPS is out with a new 60 second spot that runs through a litany of Obama's "broken promises" on taxes, healthcare, and the deficit. The $8 million ad buy will be spread over 10 battleground states.

More Crossroads: Crossroads announced that the above $8 million ad buy was part of a larger $25 million TV ad campaign over the next month being run in 10 battleground states.

National Polls: A new Fox News poll finds President Obama 7 points ahead of Mitt Romney, 46% to 39%. Three weeks ago the candidates were tied at 46 percent each.

Nevada: In response to the recent takeover of the Nevada GOP by Ron Paul forces, the Republican National Committee and the Mitt Romney campaign have decided to erect a shadow state party. "They are still bogged down in the minutiae of whether Romney will be the presumptive nominee," said a GOP strategist familiar with the details of the restructuring. "We don't have time for that when the Obama campaign already is in full campaign mode. We have no use for them (the state GOP)."

North Carolina: President Obama leads Mitt Romney 48% to 47% in the latest PPP poll of North Carolina. The poll shows some improvements for Romney. Since clinching the Republican nomination, Romney's seen a 13 point improvement in his net favorability, from a 29 to 16 point deficit. Republicans have moved from supporting Romney by an 84-7 margin to a 90-5 one in the last month.

Obama: President Obama and the Democrats raised $43.6 million in April. The $43.6 million is a dip from March, when Obama's campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised a combined $53 million. It does not include several large fundraisers, including one in Hollywood that reportedly raised $15 million, that took place in early May.

Pennsylvania: Is Pennsylvania up for grabs in November? Stuart Rothenberg has some conflicting thoughts.

Senate

Florida: Rep. Connie Mack IV has received the endorsement of Mitt Romney in his race for US Senate. Mack, who strongly supported Romney in the Florida GOP presidential primary, faces former Sen. George LeMieux in the GOP Senate primary, which will take place Aug. 14.

Montana: Looking ahead to the 2014 Montana Senate race, PPP shows if Gov. Brian Schweitzer wanted to run for the Senate he would start out ahead in a hypothetical primary contest with Max Baucus, 48-37. Baucus has seen some improvement in his approval numbers over the last five months, 42%
of voters approve of him to 46% who disapprove.

Nebraska: A good article on the aftermath of the Nebraska Republican Senate primary. While Republicans have an unexpected and unknown nominee, they remain the heavy favorites to claim this seat in the Fall.

New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez leads his Republican challenger, state Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, by ten points but remains under 50 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Menendez leads Kyrillos 45 percent to 35 percent in the survey. A Quinnipiac poll conducted last month showed Menendez leading Kyrillos 44 percent to 35 percent.

House

Kucinich: Rep. Dennis Kucinich will not seek a House seat in Washington State or anywhere this year after losing a primary to Marcy Kaptur in March. In an email to his supporters, Kucinich thanked the "tens of thousands of concerned Citizens for Kucinich who in the past few months have written, emailed and called to discuss my running for Congress in Washington State." "After careful consideration and discussions with Elizabeth and my closest friends, I have decided that, at this time, I can best serve from outside the Congress."

NM-1: Former President Bill Clinton has recorded robocalls in an effort to boost the campaign of Marty Chávez. Chávez faces state Sen. Eric Griego and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham in the June 5 primary.

NV-3: Rep. Joe Heck and his challenger, Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, have reserved more than $1.4 million combined in fall television airtime in Las Vegas. Heck campaign manager Dick Leggitt said they wanted to get their time reserved because of the expected clutter on the airwaves with multiple competitive races. Heck ended March with more than $1 million in cash on hand, more than twice as much as Oceguera.

RI-1: Rep. David Cicilline leads Democratic primary opponent Anthony Gemma 40% to 36%, with 20% undecided, according to a new WPRI 12 poll. Cicilline won a four way 2010 primary with 37% of the vote, ahead of Gemma with 23%, and David Segal and Bill Lynch with 20% each. If he makes it past the primary, Cicilline faces a competitive race against Republican Brendan Doherty, the Rhode Island State Police's former superintendent.

Governor

New Hampshire: According to a newly released PPP poll, the open New Hampshire Governor's race looks like a tossup. The two Democrats, Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan, are in a close race in the primary, and either one would start out tied with presumed GOP nominee Ovide Lamontagne. Hassan leads Cilley in the primary, 23-20, with 57% undecided. In the general, Cilley and Lamontagne are tied at 38% apiece, while Lamontagne edges Hassan, 40-39.

Wisconsin: A new Marquette Law School Poll shows Governor Scott Walker with a six percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. This is a similar margin to yesterday's PPP poll of the race. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47% to 41% lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided. President Obama is tied with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 46% to 46%, among likely voters.

Other

Michigan State House: State Representative Roy Schmidt made a last minute switch to the Republican Party at the filing deadline. Schmidt was known as a moderate to conservative Democrat who previously served as a non partisan Grand Rapids city commissioner before being elected to the state House. He faces an unknown Democratic challenger in November.

SCRep :: Political Roundup For May 17, 2012
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Elizabeth Warren's Pow Wow Chow
http://www.bostonherald.com/ne...

Rob Gray, a Republican political consultant and commentator on Channel 25, made a great point today: This is day 20 of this story. It's gotten to the point where it simply can't blow over. It will come up in a debate in the fall, and at this point it's probably fair game for advertising too (though I'd tread very lightly on it if I were Brown - tarnishing his image would be far worse than passing up a hit.) This all but ensures it's going to continue to dog her.

R - MD-7


Terrible
She has handled this terribly.  Regardless of wether she should claim the heritage or not, she has handled this in just about the worst way possible.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
How a smart politician would've handled this
Growing up my parents always told us that we were part Native American. I had no reason to doubt them. So I checked off the Native American box on some applications and directories. In 1996 I did some research and couldn't prove I had any Native American blood. So I dropped it. I have enormous respect for the Native American community and apologize if anyone is offended.

Granted, that's not true, but that's a good story they could've come up with if her people had bothered to oppo research her.

Look at Marco Rubio. He said he was repeating what they'd said about their immigration to the U.S. and he had no reason to doubt his parents. He said that when they immigrated doesn't change that they didn't go back to Cuba due to Communism. End of story.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Hilarious Chavez ad in NM-1
Marquette Poll
Margins by region:

Madison Metro: Barrett 53 Walker 41
Milwaukee: Barrett 64 Walker 31
Milwaukee Metro: Walker 55 Barrett 37
Green Bay/Appleton/Oshkosh Metro: Walker 54 Barrett 40
Everywhere Else: Walker 61 Barrett 34

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


To an extent Walker
won in 2010 due to Barrett's showing in outstate.  

[ Parent ]
Those Madison numbers are terrible
Even going by the largest definition of the "Madison metro area" i can, (Basically Dane, Rock, Saulk, Iowa, Columbia, and Green), Obama won 69% there.  If Barret is only up 12, he's already lost the state, not even considering his terrible out-state numbers.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Huge MOE


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I know
But in what is supposed to be the heart of the recall effort, you'd think they'd be able to post better numbers than that in ANY poll.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
VA-Sen: Robert Marshall
Oy. This guy is unfortunately kind of a caricature of what's wrong with our NoVa bench. http://www.politico.com/news/s...

R - MD-7

Just wrong
Whats next, NRA Members can't be judges?  Then people who belong to political parties?

Did the candidate have anything actually wrong with them?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Virginia Has Merit Selection
But McDonnell did nomminate him, and seemed quite annoyed at the rejection. 8 Republicans and 25 Democrats voted for confirmation. 31 Republicans voted No.

The real blame is the 8 Democrats and 28 Republicans who were somewhere else.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I should add
This is a godsend for McDonnell. He gets to pick a fight with someone whose position is so utterly crazy that there is no way even social conservatives will defend him.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I am sure what you mean by merit
selection of judges in VA.  All judges have to be voted in by state legislators in VA. If you are suggesting that they are nominated strictly on merit then I refer to you what Dickins said about the law.  Merit selection of judges in VA and every other state that claims to have merit procedures for judicial selections is as political as it can be. I might add that ABA's supposed unbiased committee for reviewing federal judicial nominations is beyond political.  

I consider "merit selection of judges" to be an Orwellian adjective like department of peace. I say this not to be insulting but I have noticed that the political appointment of judges tends to lead to better judges who act less political.  While "merit" based states tend to select the most political judges. If you want to see where judges are the most political and activist look at merit based states.


[ Parent ]
Depends
At the higher end there is some truth to that. Judges who see themselves are non-partisan and merit-selected are more likely to interfere in political disputes. We have seen that this year with redistricting. But no one would say the Michigan Court's handling of the Oakland case was impartial or non-activists.

But thats a minority of what they do. Election of judges is catastrophic on its impact on local judges. A big mark against doing business in state's like Mississippi is the need to buy-in to the judicial system which more often than not means paying off the local Chamber of Commerce to get access to their fully-owned judges.

Whatever the flaws of "merit selection" the people it harms are political partisans who want a partisan judiciary. In this context you are confusing the 1% of cases where you would prefer partisan robots, or minimalists, to the 99% of cases no one hears about or cares because they relate to property, libel, regulation, zoning etc. where elected judges have no clue what their doing and tend to take orders either from their Union or Chamber of Commerce masters. Anyone expecting a fair trial at the district or lower appellate levels in these states is delusional.

The average quality of judicial proceedings in say, Massachusetts or Connecticut is so far above that in say Michigan, Wisconsin, or Mississippi its hard to put into words. Its not just a partisan thing. Good judges do not like having to run for reelection against the kind of idiots judicial elections attract and engage in demogogury based on a lack of public comprehension of what courts do. As a consequence, the top talent of either partisan hinge simply stops serving.

Merit selected judges in the US are often arrogant or condescending. But the states with Judicial elections have judicial systems that are on a third world level in some cases.  

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
elected versus merit versus
political appointment is a whole another matter.

In NJ Gov Christie is struggling to get the state senate to confirm two Supreme court and 17 lower level judges.  Christie nominees them and the senate confirms them.  By all accounts the nominees are very well qualified. There is no popular election of judges in NJ. Not sure there is even retention.  Yet the qualified nominees that Christie chooses are somehow not based on "merit"?

In Florida there is merit selection of judges and the Supreme court in that state is considered the most political in the nation.  So much for "merit" being none political.

In VA the so called "merit based system" has not been shown to produce better judges in NJ where a Gov nominates and the senate confirms.  In GOP Govs usually have to nominate saints to get the D senate to confirm them.  

People tout "Merit based" as you did as some sort of silver bullet where the implication the most qualifed person is nominated.  You did not out and out say it but your reference implied "merit" put forth the best candidate.  You could have implied that he was a qualified candidate.  I am sure he was qualified but not the most qualified.  He is 44 years old and maybe someone at age 60 would be most qualified.  Of course I contend that even at lower court levels race, geography and sex is just as important if not more important in some cases then qualifications.  


[ Parent ]
Merit Selection is Imperfect
And I think retention adds a check to it.

The question though is what is the least bad system.

Partisan election - Where judges and therefore justice depends on the partisan make-up of the locality your in.

Non-Partisan - Like the above, but only special interest groups know who owns you.

Pure Appointment - Completely dependent on the Governor. In practice tends to work much better for lower down appointments as "merit" since you tend to get the same people, but you have big clashes over the higher courts.

"Merit Selection" - Creates a judicial class not responsible to anyone, and believing they are smarter than everyone else.

All have serious problems. They just happen to be in different places.

The main problem with "Merit Selection" is as you note, its under the control of a private entity. In Massachusetts for instance, the names are forwarded by a judicial nominating commission, and the Governor gets to appoint its Chair. As a consequence, Republican governors will have Republican chairs, and Democratic ones Democratic chairs. Then nominees must be confirmed by the Governors Council. This was where Romney ran into trouble as the Council was 8-0 Democratic under his tenure.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Non-partisan judicial elections
We have those here, and on the county level, they're quite competitive. The county parties often endorse judicial candidates, and I haven't heard any real horror stories.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I disagree with you 100%
The "Merit system" or "Missouri plan" puts power in the hands of a small group of attorneys and also often takes power away from the people.

While I have a problem with the way Supreme Court is picked in Michigan for nominations, our appeals, circuit, district, and probate judges are all at least on its face non-partisan. Trial judges often do have, especially among lawyers, cross party endorsement support.

We have good judges and bad judges, but at least the bad judges can get fired.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
I too deplore the Missouri plan
and I used to live there.  Here's the dirty little secret about the Missouri plan.  Judges picked by democrats nearly always retire when democrats return to Gov office.  Republicans not so much so Missouri plan judges tend to be more D.

I honestly would prefer Gov appointments with or without senate approval and term limits.  I do not like yes or no votes, however, and see merit in partisan or nonpartisan elections.  


[ Parent ]
I don't like gov appointments
Outside of vacancies in the middle of the term, I don't like appointments. Here it's just a straightforward top two runoff style election when there's an opening at the end of a term. All appointed incumbents also have to run again at the next election.

There's no perfect system, but at least there is a check and balance.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Fox News Poll
BS. That's all. Any poll that doesn't push respondents at all is BS. 15% undecided? There's no way that's true.  

BS?
No.

This is as useful as any other data point. It also gives a glimpse of the squishy voters that will ultimately swing the election one way or the other. Without a push poll, you view essentially the basement for.each candidates, and how the undecideds break will determine who wins. It is good to see the occasional soft poll, especially this far out when only diehards are really even paying attention.

But again, no polls in May really matter. Like every presidential election, Americans tune out for summer vacations, nice weather, and the late-summer Olympics that happen every presidential year.

Get back to me after Labor Day, and then the polls will actually.mean more as people tune in for the fall campaign.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Polls
Before Labor Day the only thing they are good for is fundraising.  And seeing last month, Obama needs all the help he can get if he wants to outrun Romney/RNC/Super PACs

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
NY GOP wins in court
Legislative maps set in stone for 2012 at least.
http://politicker.com/2012/05/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Did Anyone Think Otherwise?! (nt)


[ Parent ]
Yes
Some thought the blatant under/over population of parts of the state warranted some fixing, but granted it was never a case that was likely to win.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
What's Good For The Goose Is Good For The Gander
I'd be quite fine with the courts forcing more population equity on the NY legislative maps as long as they impose that on both legislative maps, and not just on the NY State Senate map selectively.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I'd be for that as well.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
And Here is Where the Senate Democrat lost.
They should have filed a joint case with the Assembly Republicans, or a good government group against both maps.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
And Here is Where the Senate Democrat lost.
They should have filed a joint case with the Assembly Republicans, or a good government group against both maps.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
PPP has NH house races close.
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

Now that's the last thing I was expecting
Bass running better than Guinta runs contrary to everything I have heard on the ground up there.

[ Parent ]
NH-01
I still rate this one as tilt R. I feel as if Romney will drag Guinta across the finish line, but it's certainly possible that he loses.

[ Parent ]
I do wonder if they're having sampling issues in NH-01
They were pretty good there in 2010, but this poll is from the same sample as the statewide poll that most of us felt was too D-friendly. The NH-2 numbers look pretty realistic, so maybe they overcalled Portsmouth and Dover in NH-1.

Guinta is pretty uninspiring as an incumbent but Shea-Porter is a weaker candidate than Kuster, or someone like Maggie Hassan who was looking at the race before the governor's seat opened up.


[ Parent ]
Agree, I expect Guinta to win
and Bass to lose. Bass should have the tougher race.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but UNH showed the same thing last month
so I'm inclined to accept that Shea-Porter has the best shot.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
On its face it dosen't seem likely
Romney also did much much better in NH-01 than in NH-02, and I would expect him to be competitive there even if he is losing the state narrowly, as I think polarization between the two districts will be greater than in 2009.

It may just be that its hard to sample in Belknap and Carroll. A lot of the residence are part-time and not registered to vote.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
As I noted the other day
PPP's NH poll was left of center and lets see what their likely voter screen will look like this fall.  

[ Parent ]
NH-01, NH-02: Shea-Porter leads 47-43, Kuster-Bass tied 42-42
Guinta's job approval is underwater at 36/44; Bass is also underwater at 34-49.

Shea-Porter's faves are 42/42 and Kuster's faves are 35/24

Link (WARNING: pdf)

NH-01 is 35D/35R/31I, 90% white, and 8/23/32/23/14 very liberal/somewhat liberal/moderate/somewhat conservative/very conservative

NH-02 is 36D/29R/36I, 91% white, and 12/24//29/24/10 very liberal/somewhat liberal/moderate/somewhat conservative/very conservative.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


Ummmm
NH has a 4% GOP Voter Registration advantage. This poll is still thinking its 2008, and even then, the Dems has just a 2000 voter edge.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
MN GOP state convention this weekend in Saint Cloud
I'd say state rep. Bills has the momentum right now to win the party endorsement to get killed by Klobuchar.  He has over 40 state legislative endorsements including House speaker Zellers, Senator Thompson, and Senator Chamberlain.  He also has the endorsement of Ron Paul (who will be speaking at the convention tomorrow), Rand Paul, and conservative Twin Cities talk radio host Jason Lewis.  

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

Bills she know better
With such little experience, he can't afford.the kind of.kiss of.death that a 2:1 statewide.loss would deliver. Losing once statewide is generally a death warrant in Minnesota, but losing BIG is definitely the final nail in the coffin of a political career. Bills would have been wise to try and hold his seat (although that is not an easy task, considering the location of the district, and the disaster.that is the MN-GOP circa 2012.)

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Because
Rudy Perpich, Mark Dayton, and Paul Wellstone's political careers all never recovered from their statewide losses.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
And neither did
Norm Coleman or Skip Humphrey.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
those you listed
Humphrey never recovered from his 88 senate run, which is why he got thumped the next time he looked for a promotion in 98, and that loss killed his career for good.

Daytons one and only loss came as a decent showing against a sitting senator 30 years ago. Bills won't have a decent showing.

Paul Wellstones only loss was a respectable showing (although by 10 points)  to one of the most popular politicians in recent Minnesota History.

Coleman had a good showing in 98, losing by only 3 points. But Coleman never really recovered from that. He got lucky and his opponent tragically passed away 2 weeks before the election, and he squeaked out a plurality win over a corpse, and was promptly voted out 6 years later when he faced a living oponent. And now his electoral career is done.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
You didn't talk about the most important one
Perpich lost by 8 as a sitting Governor and bounced back to win a nomination and election as an underdog, and then re-election after that.

Losing statewide in MN is no worse than losing statewide anywhere else.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
Crossroads GPS: If Romney's Ad spending was the death star, is Crossoads the Sun Crusher?

MT-Sen: That's funny, but I doubt that Schweitzer would risk losing like that, even with that kind of shot. A few years out of office would take those numbers down a bit. Combined Baucus' purported network, winning would still be tough.

NJ-Sen: If Kyrillos does well, then great, but the NRSC (and outside grouos) shouldn't throw too much money into chasing this white rabbit.

Kucinich: Well, it'll be a bittersweet parting. It's good to have The K to kick around, but having him go away will cause less annoyance for many.

NM-01: The Clinton's seem like they keep a favors and grudges ledger.

NH-Gov: Lamontagne will have the NH GOP's machinery solidly behind him, but I still think that he's only got a 50% shot at winning, at the most. Western NH is just slowly becoming a hippie haven, and it makes it harder for the GOP to win. I'm hoping for a breakthrough with some of the working class Catholic voters in the Nashua area whose hands still generally rest on the Democratic lever.

WI-Gov: I now will say that this race is Lean R. I don't think that Walker will win by ten points, because Democrats seem to have a high floor in WI and the electorate is very polarized, but I think that Walker's floor for this election may be approaching 50%.

MI-State House: Good for Scmidt. How Democratic is his seat? Every extra vote counts.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


MI HD 76
I read somewhere that this district is about 57% Obama.  

[ Parent ]
Schmidt challenger
Actually, state Rep. Schmidt will not be facing a Democratic opponent.

The person who delivered Roy Schmidt's affidavit of candidacy as a Republican for the 76th District state House seat also dropped off documents entering Matt Mojzak into the race as a Democrat, Kent County elections officials said Wednesday.

http://www.mlive.com/news/gran...

It's pretty clear that the "Democrat" running isn't a real candidate.  


Disgusting
So not only did he switch parties at the last minute to avoid a GE fight but he also had a crony to be put on the Democratic line most likely to stop a write in candidacy or something later?

How is this allowed?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
It is
MI Democratic chairman Mark Brewer claims the address used on the "Democratic" challenger's affidavit of candidacy isn't his real address.  So he might not even live in the district, which according to the article, is a requirement. Brewer is calling for an investigation into what's going on.  

[ Parent ]
It's an interpersonal relationship thing.
Even if there was a law against this kind of maneuver, it would be hard to prove. If the basis for proof was hearsay, in other words someone saying that he or she knew that both candidates were friends, then not only would that be unfair to candidates and not really provable in court, but even if a connection was found through evidence, it would bar people from running. What if you've known a guy for a long time? Say you went to high school with him and see him at reunions. You don't like him, and you run against him to keep him out of office, or maybe even decide to run without knowing about his candidacy? It would be a mess.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I read some where that the Dem candidate was a friend of his nephew.


[ Parent ]
Romney's fundraising on par with Obama
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

Mitt Romney raised $40.1 million in his first month as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, nearly matching President Barack Obama's total.

Mr. Romney's total for April falls just shy of the $43.6 million the president raised last month and shows Mr. Romney benefiting from the resolution of the nomination contest. The Romney campaign raised the money in conjunction with the Republican National Committee and a combination of state and national party committees.

Probably solid for our side. Public financing of course looks dead and buried.

27, R, PA-07.


Damn
Very, very, very good. And that's with Santorum still in the race the first two weeks of the month. I wonder if he will beat Obama in May?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
SC-7 Poll
Bauer 22 Rice 21 Prosser 8
http://www.fitsnews.com/2012/0...

SC1-Charleston

Is this poll in line with your thinking?
Primary is in June or July?

[ Parent ]
June 12
Expected Bauer to be ahead by more because of his name recognition. Rice being tied for first is the big surprise. Expected Prosser to be closer than he is. Dont think Bauer can grow his support much, everyone already knows him and some of his support is soft and could switch. Rice is looking good for a runoff spot. Prosser will have to fight into the top 2.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Anyone but Bauer is fine with me
Although I do like Jenerette quite a bit. Maybe Palin might get involved.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Problem with Jenerette
is she has no money. She's becoming a perennial candidate, running for state senate, SC-1 against Henry Brown in 2008, and for the open 1st District in 2010. Fundraising is non existent.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
I know, but...
She is young, so I do not think her time is up due to prior losses. The money problem is there, and it is her fault for getting into the race so late. But, considering the field is kind of weak, a little momentum would do wonders for her. My guess is that this race will be Rice vs either Bauer or if one of the remaining candidates can coalesce support. So, perhaps a Palin endorsement could give her the boost she needs.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Any relation to Rita?
ref Abscam scandal back in the '80s.  

Some of my best friends call me a "Demoncrat"

[ Parent ]
That makes 2 relatives of Absacm congressmen running for
congress in 2012!

[ Parent ]
I think Jenerette is her husband's surname


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
She just returned from combat tour-of-duty in Afghanistan - CAB, etc
funny video: Dogs-Votes-and Andre Bauer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


[ Parent ]
Things would be different if she had won
State Senate 28 against Dick Elliott in 2004.  Greg Hembree has the open seat this year. Having your fourth loss in a row hurts.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
ND Senate
Berg - 51%
Heitkamp - 44%

http://www.inforum.com/event/a...

34, Republican, TN-8




Dead people will have problems with presenting voter ID
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

They may remain on the rolls anyway. No one wants to deny any American the right to vote, but someone losing their vote is as bad as a non-citizen voting. It's so easy for them to register and vote.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Registering to vote is basically done on the honor system
So if you are in this country illegally and would like documentation proving you belong in the States registering to vote and getting a voter registration card as a form of official ID makes sense. In many states there are no checks so its easy to do.

[ Parent ]
I Think My Deceased Mom Is Still on the Voter Rolls...
...Here in San Diego. It's on my 'To Do' list to take care of over summer.  

[ Parent ]
I didn't do anything about that
I was executor when my aunt died and it never occurred to me to ask the registrar to take her off the rolls. If it had, I would've assumed the state had her death certificate and they'd take care of it.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
She Died Out-of-State (nt)


[ Parent ]
Even out of county
or she had registered to vote slightly differently then what her SS card or birth certficate.  My mother in law is listed as Bernice or Mary B or Mary Bernice or even Bernice W on various legal docutments.  My Mother is listed as Imogene, Emogene or Jean on driver license, SS and voter card. And naturally if you die while at a different address then where you were registered that makes removing someone harder.  

[ Parent ]
NRCC Announces more Young Guns
http://atr.rollcall.com/nrcc-a...

Young Gun status doesn't 100% correlate with a candidate's chances of winning. It's more an affirmation that person has met certain goals, including fundraising. There may be high value targets where the candidate has yet to step up enough.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


John Archer
I really like him. I think he could make it surprisingly close against Loebsack  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Fischer by 18
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Rasmussen has a Republican house effect and Fischer likely has a primary bounce, but 18 points is way too large to ignore. It's one thing to leave the state, but the New School in New York City is going to scare away some moderates. It's difficult to see how Kerrey can get enough votes to win.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Close to Safe Republican.
nt

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Its not the New School..
It rather the way Kerrey completely disavowed Nebraska when he flirted with a NYC Mayoral run in 2005. This is a Harold Ford burnt bridges situation. Kerrey because of his flirtations with running in NYC burnt the bridges back home. If in 2005 he said running for Mayor of NYC is insane because I am a Nebraskan and I fully intend to return home when my job in NYC ends thun spending the last 12 year living in NYC would be no big deal.  

[ Parent ]
You don't get more left wing than the New School
It's one thing to work on Wall Street or a New York law firm, but among left wing universities this one stands out. And it's in the Village. Greenwich Village isn't going to evoke memories of any place in Nebraska.

Just take a camera and walk down 5th through the park and then walk over to 6th and down to Houston. Run that in Omaha over a picture of Bob Kerrey.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
It's been awhile since you were in NYC
those are all million dollar apartments now lining thoses streets. All the old mom & pop uniquely NYC stores (bodegas, small clothing boutiques, optimo stores and head shops) are all gone and have been replaced by Barnes & Nobles, Starbucks, Duane Reade drug stores and Chase Banks. Believe me there is nothing in that picture that would scare the folks in Omaha. In fact I bet you'd have a better chance of getting mugged at night in downtown Omaha then you would in Greenwich Village these days.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps I have been
I was talking about the people who inhabit the Village, not the stores. I walked through the park at 3 AM drunk by myself. I lived in the Village for 4 years and never felt like I was going to get mugged.

I was talking about drug dealers, tattooed people who look like gang members, and people who shave half their head, dye it pink, and pierce everything any more.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
They aint there anymore!
They've been replaced with wealthy Wall Street lawyers and their families. Nannies with baby strollers. The median apartment price per ft in the Village is $1,151. Which means ever small 1 bedrooms sell for half a million and rent for $3,500 a month. Those drug dealing tattooed people cant afford to live there any more!

[ Parent ]
They're trying to counter that line of attack
by saying "you never take Nebraska out of a Nebraskan" or "once a Husker always a Husker"(the one that really makes me cringe-I'd love to quiz him on Husker football just to see how much he really has followed the team). Those are phrases that are often used for ex-Nebraskans living elsewhere. But the fact that he just returned from New York in order to run for the Senate(and his family still lives there) makes him just look like an opportunist.
Really though, his biggest problem is simply that his views are too liberal for the state(and his time in New York seemed to pull him in an even more leftward direction). For his part, he keeps talking about bipartisanship and supporting Republican ideas that are good-trying to ignore his left-wing views on most issues. He's even come up with a ridiculous proposal for a constitutional amendment to make Congress a nonpartisan body like the Nebraska Legislature. He has to know that there is zero chance of such a proposal ever going anywhere, so I'm not sure what he thinks he gains by making it.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Gallup: Romney 45% Obama 45%
3,050 registered voters... http://www.gallup.com/poll/150...

On the Three-Day Sample
Approval is up 2, Disapproval down 1 in the last two days, so he may get a bounce in the 7 day sample in the next few days.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Daily PA Political Corruption Update
http://triblive.com/state/1810...

If Melvin was forced out, Corbett will appoint a caretaker with consent of Senate until the 2013 judicial election.

28, Republican, PA-6


Replacement
Maybe a Republican judge from the Commonwealth or Superior Court?  

[ Parent ]
Probably
We will likely see two open seats in 2013 now.  Castille is functionally term limited as he will be 69 and mandatory retirement is 70.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
IL-13 update
http://m.news-gazette.com/news...

In the 30 second clip of the interview, Habeeb claims Erika Harold has surprising support throughout the district. Hopefully this means that she will get the nomination on Saturday.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Eric Holder
Was seen dropping his papers and rushing Perez to block it.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
How RI Ds passed it
[ Parent ]
MasonDixon Poll: Romney 47% Obama 44%
Quite a few polls
Have Mitt ahead now. Maybe Obama IS in deep trouble.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It's clear he is
The polls and fundraising show that.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Jeremiah Wright memo
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

There's now a controversy about a rejected memo done for Joe Ricketts, someone with no real ties to any Republicans. My favorite quote from Messina:

The blueprint for a hate-filled, divisive campaign of character assassination speaks for itself. It also reflects how far the party has drifted in four short years since John McCain rejected these very tactics

The Obama campaign is running a video full of character assassination and hate that depicts Mitt Romney as a greedy person who doesn't care whose life he ruins. Yet he throws that on Republicans.

If Obama stopped running on hate, divisiveness, and character assassination what would he run on?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Yeah, Nice of Them To Laud The Losing McCain Campaign...
...which went down to ignominious defeat precisely because McCain was unwilling to actually present what a radical Obama was.

Yeah, thanks Dems - I think we'll run our campaign without any self-serving input from your side this time.  


[ Parent ]
Nothing would've saved McCain
Palin spent the last month talking about how radical Obama was. He was palling around with terrorists, you betcha.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Roland Martin isn't part of the Obama campaign and he is a fool but he's implying here that blaming Mitt Romney for the LDS church actions prior to 1978 is an actual issue. We're just not talking about it because Republicans haven't done anything bad enough to warrant it.

Why take it off the table? Blame Mitt for everything the LDS church has done since the 19th century. They've already blamed him for polygamy.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
PPP Iowa: Obama lead Romney by 10
The numbers actually look fair for once... http://www.redracinghorses.com...

No Way
Again, I don't care what the breakdown numbers are - this is a number that doesn't make any sense on its face.

I'm supposed to believe that a race that's basically tied nationally is somehow Obama +10, in Iowa?!

Yeah, right.
Keep building that narrative PPP!!...  


[ Parent ]
I too am doubtful
of a 10 pt lead for Obama in Iowa or 9 points in NH when Mason Dixon has it +3 for Romney nationally.  

[ Parent ]
I have doubts too
First their are way too many liberals in this poll(I count moderates as liberals). Second, gay marriage does too well. It was just a couple years ago 3 Supreme Court Justices lost an election because of it.

[ Parent ]
HP news
as Whitman plans 30K cuts

http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

I hate to hate it.


Oh dear,
this will make the birthers run wild again...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-G...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


Um, wow


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The Rickett's Family Really Goofed on this one
http://www.suntimes.com/125936...

The father (Joe)of the owner of the Cubs (Tom) was thinking of running $10 million worth of super PAC ad's against Obama about his former pastor Jeremiah Wright and his racist sermons. Mayor "9.5 digits" Emmanuel is livid.

Looks like the Cubs aren't getting public money to fix Wrigley Field and the surrounding land they own, which is actually good, because taxpayer money being used for a private organization is absolutely ridiculous when the city is going bankrupt due to underfunded pensions.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative


MI state House
According the MIRS news twitter, the "Democratic" candidate running against Rep. Schmidt dropped out.

http://twitter.com/#!/MIRSnews...


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