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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

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Row Officers


Afternoon Political Roundup for May 21, 2011

by: James_Nola

Mon May 21, 2012 at 16:28:05 PM EDT


Romney: Mitt Romney's finance chair says his 3 day NY fundraising trip will raise over $10 million. This come on top of a $10 million, two-day swing across Florida last week.

Crossroads: Crossroads GPS has bought $8 million of ad time in Florida, Michigan, Vermont and New Hampshire, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Nevada , Iowa and North Carolina. The first flight of ads is from May 23-29, and the second from May 30-June 5.

Arizona Senate: Richard Carmona's former boss at HHS is accusing him of some pretty crazy things. Among them, she says he would come banging on her door and screaming in the middle of the night over workplace disputes.

Indiana Gov: Rep. Mike Pence has selected state Rep. Sue Ellspermann as his running mate.  

James_Nola :: Afternoon Political Roundup for May 21, 2011
Tags: (All Tags)
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Vermont?
Is this for Randy Brock or does it overlap into New Hampshire?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Only marginal overlap with NH.
The Vermont buy is bizarre. If you want NH, you buy Boston. But hey, I won't complain.

[ Parent ]
Vermont is cheap
and I'm sure that the moral victory of defeating Shumlin is worth far more than the average governor.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Misprint?
Did they really buy Virginia air time?

[ Parent ]
Owens
Plattsburgh is part of the Burlington-Plattsburgh DMA. If you want to target Owens, you'll consider buying here.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Not enough coverage
Burlington TV only covers 3 counties in NY21. You need Albany & Watertown NY to cover this district  

[ Parent ]
They are on the air here against Owens
I live in the Burlington/Plattsburgh TV market, and can confirm that Crossroads is definitely up on the air with an anti-Owens ad... in fairly heavy rotation from what I saw on TV over the weekend.  

[ Parent ]
Ah, that explains it.
They seem to like spending on races in Upstate NY.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
VA, not VT
All the other reports I've tracked down say Virginia, not Vermont.

Link: The Hill

This obviously makes far more sense than the idea of pointlessly running ads in Vermont to target Shumlin (who is safe as can be) or Owens (if that's the idea, then you obviously run ads in Albany & Watertown, not just in Burlington/Plattsburg which covers a fairly trival part of the district, and also the most reliably Democratic).

Link: TV Market Maps

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Owens
I'm sure Bill Owens doesn't feel that his home is trivial. I'd buy Watertown, but might pass on buying Albany. It's more expensive and most of the media would be waste. I'd buy cable to cover that area.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes
I'm sure the resident of this town doesn't feel her home is trivial either, but it is.



Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Lost Springs boomed in the 2000s
The town quadrupled in size.
(Census 2010 results show 4)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
There's now an even smaller area
Erving's Location, New Hampshire

That township has ZERO population according to the 2010 census.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Uhh, no
In the new map there's probably as many voters in the Albany part of the 21st as the Watertown market. We are talking 4 full counties (Fulton Hamilton Warren Washington) and a big chunk of Saratoga.  Plus Albany TV really only covers 2 other CDs (19 & 20) and 20 isn't happening

It's fairly cheap and both candidates will use broadcast  


[ Parent ]
NY-21
The voting age population is distributed in the TV markets as follows:

Albany: 216,354
Watertown: 195,119
Plattsburg: 138,901
Utica: 8323

Albany: 38.7%
Watertown: 34.9%
Plattsburg: 24.9%
Utica: 1.5%

The 2008 Obama percentage in each was as follows:

Plattsburg: 59%
Watertown: 51%
Albany: 48%
Utica: 39%

Clearly the Albany market is essential if you want to defeat Owens.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
where do you get all that data?


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
DRA
I have the new districts mapped out in a DRA file. I just split up NY-21 by TV market.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Divide it differently
You aren't looking at this as a media planner would. Your percentages divide the district. What you need to do is figure out what percentage of the TV market this district takes up. Assuming your numbers are correct, here are the percentages:

Albany 20.8%
Watertown 91.3%
Plattsburgh 22.6%

Based on this information I'd buy Watertown and hit it hard. I'd probably look to cable and other media for the other two markets.  

Of course I need to look at the CPPs in each market to make my final call. Population size doesn't 100% correlate with costs and the costs tend to be higher in a bigger market. If Plattsburgh is inexpensive it might not be a bad idea.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I didn't say..
..don't run ads in Plattsburgh. I said you don't run ads just in Plattsburgh if you're targeting Owens.

Do whatever you like with Watertown, but the seat will be won or lost in the Albany market. If you want my advice, the GOP should not run any ads there at all..

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Albany's a cheap market
State legislators run broadcast ads there.  

[ Parent ]
Won't happen
Safe D.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah. There's just not any indication that Shumlin's
race is remotely competitive. Well, we can't look into Crossroads' minds, but whether they do this to target Shumlin or to reach Grafton, it's bizarre either way.

[ Parent ]
Carmona...
...should fit in fine with the rest of the Dem Senate caucus then.  ;p  

IN-Gov; John Gregg to name Vi Simpson as his running mate
http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Michigan House democrats are bad at math
Rep. Mark Meadows of East Lansing said Democrats were excited when they figured out the number of House districts where at least 48 percent of voters are Democrats increased from 47 to 59 after Republicans reapportioned districts based on the 2010 U.S. Census.

"Democrats didn't lose a single seat in 2010 (in districts) where we had 48 percent," said Rep. Mark Meadows of East Lansing. "We can expect to see a Democratic majority in the House next year."

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/art...

There is no way that's true.  Almost all the dem areas of the state lost population significantly.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton


I would love to see their
spreadsheets.

1st they had 47 sheets at 48% in 2011 but only had 46 seats. So that stat is hard to reconcile.  

2nd how do they define 48% D?  48% Obama? I wonder how they do it?

3rd show me the money?  I want to see 11 seats that went from under 48% D to over 48%D. I have heard of this D gerrymander.  


[ Parent ]
agreed
if he meant 48% Obama, then that's about 51% McCain.

I could see a few cases where to here shore up another seat, a couple of 51.5% McCain seats were slightly dropped to 50.5%.
But that other seat would already be a 48%+ Obama seat that was won by Republicans in 2010.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
NY primary Sep. 13
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...
A rare Thursday treat.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Incumbents love late primaries
And this is late as can be

[ Parent ]
NY Has The Most Corrupt Election Practices in the Country... (nt)


[ Parent ]
And early ones
as clearly only incumbents in Illinois love December filing dates.  Really early or really late favors incumbents IMO.  

[ Parent ]
Dick Cheney to fundraise for Romney
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Oklahoma: Romney up 35 over Obama
http://soonerpoll.com/state-st...

That's almost 1984-bad.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Not really worse than 2008 though
I mean he lost in 2008 by 32 points.  

[ Parent ]
Registration
There are 943k registered Democrats in Oklahoma and 828k Republicans.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
They must have a lot of DINO's. n/t


23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

[ Parent ]
yes
Among states with party registration, Oklahoma might very well rank as #1 in the DINO category.
(Defined for this purpose as having a Democratic registration but voting Republican at both national & state level [in contrast to states which have a lot of people voting Republican for congressional seats but Democratic for state offices])

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
That bodes well for us taking the last D seat in OK.


23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

[ Parent ]
Looks like
Many anti-Obama Ds didn't bother to vote in the primary.

Even among Democrats,Obama was the choice of just under 50 percent, with Romney getting 40 percent.


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
or, more likely,
voted in the R primary.  Remember that many of these OK "Dems" are literally DINOs ---- they've just never switched their registration, or they want to vote in local elections.  I bet a lot of them went for Santorum.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
closed primary in OK
There are in fact many DINOs in Oklahoma. But they weren't eligible to vote for Santorum.
Instead, Many of them voted for the alternate Democrat that was on the ballot there.

New party registrations is mostly for Republican and in fact Democrat party registration is flat to net negative, but at current rate, there's still another few years before Republican registration will surpass Democrats in OK.


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Mark Martin
supposedly sent well into six figures creating this website for Arkansas election results... That's a complete waste of money, but at least it's a good site. Bookmark it for tomorrow.

http://results.enr.clarityelec...


Looks like he copied the North Carolina one
It looks identical.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I wish every state would do something like this.


23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

[ Parent ]
I think
That this is how it looks like in all states that outsourced it to the Spanish company.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
KS-Sen
Palin robocalls Kansas for Cruz. http://cjonline.com/blog-post/...

R - MD-7

Blame the telemarketer
For such a stupid mistake.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Bet it's a bad area code
Meant to dial 915; called 916?  

[ Parent ]
CA-2
Candidate pledges to smoke pot on Capitol steps if elected. http://www.politico.com/news/s...

R - MD-7

I'd Be More Impressed If He Pledges To Shoot Up Heroin... (nt)


[ Parent ]
Nothing to see here
Yes, we're California. Yes, they drew a district that gets the munchies and all the Democrats are calling for legalization of pot. He's doing this to get press, since he finished last quarter with $606 C-O-H. Andy Caffrey is going to finish somewhere around 9th in the election. He will be forgotten 24 hours after the primary.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
MA-SEN
Suffolk poll out Wednesday night. Also asking about IndianGate.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

We have DSCC ads on the site.
I wonder how much advertising money both sides waste on stuff like that.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Not much
The reason you see it is because you've been on a site where donors go. Maybe it's dailykos. It only takes one visit and you have a cookie. Obviously we have a number of Democratic contributors and probably a few more who just lurk.

This site is one of a lot of sights that political junkies go to. All of them won't get clicks, but they aren't counting on all of them. Advertising here might actually have a higher cost per click than a non-political site.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Artur Davis Not Backing Obama
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosieg...

I would love, love, love to get him to endorse Mitt. It wouldn't move too many votes, but it'd be good for messaging. Romney should promise him whatever he wants for an endorsement. US Attorney? Assistant Attorney General?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


It would be good for messaging?
How?

[ Parent ]
How would it not be?
How would a black Democratic former US Rep who was the first member of Congress outside of IL to endorse Obama in 2008 endorsing Romney over Obama NOT be a huge boost to Romney's messaging? Even Obama's first supporters are turning on him because of his policies. That would be something great to talk about for Romney.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
He should join the GOP
And then move to Maryland and build himself back up over there, as his more moderate views would fit the state better than a traditional conservative.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
This race still needs its Zell Miller/Joe Lieberman
If Davis wants the notoriety, it's probably his for the taking.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
WaPo goes from a D+11 to D+10. Is it any wonder Romney trails?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

I guess 33D/23R is better than 34D/23R, but 2008 39D/32R. Why are the polls moving right and they think Republicans are worse off than 2008?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Not really
Romney trails for many reasons. WaPo's polling methodology is among the least of them..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Really
Any pollster who thinks the electorate is 22-23 percent Republican probably should not be taken seriously.

That said, I think its evident from everything but that Fox News poll that had Obama up by 7 this is a 3 point race either way at the moment.  

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
It's the only reason he trails in this poll
If the poll were D+3 instead of D+10, he'd lead in this poll.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Completely Biased
WaPo/ABC Poll Assumes Lowest GOP Turnout in Decades to Boost Obama

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-G...


[ Parent ]
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