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Political Roundup For June 11, 2012

by: SCRep

Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

Jewish Voters: President Obama's support has dropped by double digits among Jewish voters from 2008, but he still earns more than twice the support of Mitt Romney among American Jews, according to a new survey from Gallup. The President receives support from 64 percent of Jewish voters, versus 29 percent for Romney, a ten point drop for Obama from 2008.

Michigan: Some Republicans are urging Mitt Romney to make a strong play for Michigan, but it remains to be seen how seriously Romney will contest the state. Attention to the state has increased after a poll by EPIC-MRA last Wednesday showed Romney only 1 point behind President Obama at 46 to 45 percent.

Super PACS: Priorities USA, a super PAC supporting President Obama's reelection campaign is bringing Bain Capital back into the spotlight this week with a new ad. The ad features testimonials of workers of closed plants affected by Bain. The new commercial is part of an ongoing $7 million ad buy and will air in five battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia.

VP Straw Poll: Sen. Marco Rubio was the top pick in a Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll of who Mitt Romney should pick as his running mate. Rubio, the choice of 30 percent of the activists in attendance, received more than double the votes of any other candidate. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie received the votes of 14 percent of attendees of the event, hosted by the American Conservative Union, while Rep. Paul Ryan took nine percent and Sen. Rand Paul received eight percent.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Jeff Flake will launch the first ad of his Senate campaign next week. Flake's campaign has booked airtime for a 10 day period starting Wednesday. His GOP primary opponent, real estate mogul Wil Cardon, has already been on the air with millions of dollars of ads, many of them attacking Flake.

Nevada: Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid has vowed to employ the vaunted Nevada Democratic machine he has helped to build on behalf of Rep. Shelley Berkley. A PAC run by a former Reid aide is on the air with anti- Heller television ads, while Reid has placed associates into the Nevada Democratic Party to coordinate turnout operations. Reid has also eagerly raised campaign cash on Berkley's behalf, arguing that the path to retaining his spot as Majority Leader might run through Nevada.

House

AZ-8: Former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords made an appearance for Ron Barber at a get out the vote campaign concert in her first public appearance in Tucson since she stepped down from office in January. The event and its associated publicity were meant to give Barber a boost heading into Tuesday's election.

CO-6: Former Democrat Kathy Polhemus is entering the race against Rep. Mike Coffman as an independent. Polhemus will make an initial investment of $100,000 of her own money to get her candidacy off the ground. State Rep. Joe Miklosi is the Democrat in the race and could be hurt by the entrance of Polhemus.

North Dakota: A new poll conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Research shows Kevin Cramer leading party endorsed candidate Brian Kalk 60% to 21% with 19% undecided. In a general election matchup, Cramer would lead Democrat Pam Gulleson 49% to 35%.

Young Guns: The National Republican Congressional Committee has named 10 more congressional candidates to its "Young Guns" program, the second batch of top tier candidates the committee has announced this cycle.

Governor

Michigan:  After last Tuesday's result in Wisconsin, a Labor affiliated group has abandoned an effort to recall Gov. Rick Snyder. Michigan Rising was not on track to reach its goal of 807,000 valid signatures to get the recall question on the November ballot.
SCRep :: Political Roundup For June 11, 2012
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Political Roundup For June 11, 2012 | 166 comments
We need more details
US Commerce Secretary Bryson suffered 'seizure' in connection with LA-area car crashes, spokeswoman says.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

PPP
AZ-8 poll will be out between 10 and 11. Democrat Barber leads by double digits

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

double digits, eh
The Dem ceiling in this district for a decade now has been roughly 55%. Guess we will see.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
hero of nothing ad
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Amazing how they take pre-shooting words and try to wave it off with a small disclaimer. Although what makes Giffords a hero I'm not exactly sure.  

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
I Strongly Doubt This Result
Double-digits?! No way.

PPP had better be right on this - if they're not, it'll be two pre-election polls in a row they've blown, and they'll be right down there with Rasmussen in terms of credibility for this cycle...  

[ Parent ]
i also remember NV-02 very vividly
They had a poll less than a month out with RV having it tied. Then their LV the weekend before the election had it Amodei by 13...
He won by 22.  So they were very D leaning on that special as well.
[ Parent ]
Young Guns
there's one really surprising name on there, Rick Snuffer. I suppose this means the NRCC considers WV-3 in play this year, though I personally think that's wishful thinking.

I like that they're putting resources into CA-3, CA-41, CA-47, CO-7, and RI-1 as well. While most (if not all) of those are somewhat long shots we shouldn't be giving up on any of them.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

What should they do? Ignore him?
He's a legitimate and credible candidate even though he only has a small shot.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
That's what I'd have done
there are plenty of other legitimate candidates with only very small shots that are being ignored around the country. Just to throw a few races out there: MN-1, ME-2, NY-6, MD-2. WV-3 is not on my top 25 or so list of potential R pickups because it's the very definition of yellow dog downballot. But perhaps Sessions & Co. see something I don't.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Cardon/Flake
Have we seen a recent primary poll here?  I know Flake was crushing months ago.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
In PPP's last poll a few weeks ago
I recall it being 45F-20C or something like that.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Boston Herald: Richard Tisei's Friend
http://www.bostonherald.com/ne...

I would've thought John Tierney's wife story wold've died by now, but The Herald wants answers to interesting questions.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Morning Thoughts
Jewish voters: Republicans have been predicting a possible shift for thirty years, and it's finally happening.

MI-Prez: Though I'm skeptical that Romney leads in MI, I will praise EPIC-MRA for not having a boatload of undecideds, something that I would expect from a poll showing a Romney lead in MI.

CO-06: Good luck! Go ahead and pull votes from Miklosi.

MI-Gov: Mhmm

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)

Jewish Voters
If things end up around 65-35ish, how does that stack with previous Elections?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
It should be a pretty high point for Republicans.
The GOP usually gets around 20% of the Jewish vote, if I remember correctly. For instance, I'm pretty sure that Reagan only 19-21% in 1980. McCain got similar numbers,nso they've moved right in presidential elections by a few points over the last thirty years. This new support is a big jump. I'm not sure if or where it's concentrated, but if I had to guess I would say Florida and possibly the South (though since only about 7% of American Jewry is Southern, it won't make much difference in votes, though it may help in fundraising). Anecdotally, I've seen that it's being caused by Obama and fiscal issues. I know of one case of a family of Conservative (religious designation) Jews who supposedly are all now Republicans because they're more scared of Obama's fiscal practices than they are of Republican tendencies toward promotion of Christianity.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
*so, not nso


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
More important where are they?
It only matters if they are in swing areas.  If we are seeing a lot a swing among Orthodox Jews it might not mean anything.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
The only time in my lifetime where Jews did not heavily support . . .
the Dem nominee was in 1980 -- the last time the White House was occupied by a President preceived as somewhat anti-Israel.  

Indeed, in 1980 even my diehard Dem mom (who never voted for a GOP presidential nominee before or after) voted for Reagan over Carter.  

Of course, in 1980, many Jews had a moderate alternative to Carter -- John Anderson.    

[ Parent ]
The best GOP performance since 1980
Reagan garnered 39 percent in that race.

65-35 would actually exactly match the McGovern-Nixon margin among Jews.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
My bad on 1980
I thought that Reagan only 20%.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Both Mormons & Jews have moved about 10% away from Obama
and toward Romney from 2008. Mormons & Jews are the only religious demographic that his having this big a swing from 2008. This can be key in a few swing states. Take NV for example. Mormons are 11% of the state and Jews are about 2%. Taken together this can be a 1.3% shift in vote from Obama towards Romney. In New Mexico & In AZ Jews & Mormons are 5% of the population. In CO they are 4% combined.  So the large swing of these to religious groups from how they voted in 2008 could play a role in quite a few swing states.
[ Parent ]
I Think The Swing in Catholics Is Almost As Big
You say, "Mormons & Jews are the only religious demographic that his having this big a swing from 2008." But I don't think that's true, as I think Catholics have almost moved by that much away from Obama...  
[ Parent ]
Agree
The Catholic swing is the thing to watch for.  Basically that puts Obama in trouble in several critical states.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
any polling data on that?
I would potentially believe that among white Catholics. But with Hispanics (who are nearly a monolithic Catholic group) showing no real signs if moving away from Obama and towards Romney, it is unlikely that the overall Catholic vote could move 10 points

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
incorrect
a quarter of Hispanics are Protestants.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
yup
We have several Hispanics who are members of my church. (Methodist)

During the week, my church offers English as second language classes.

(And my count is only those who are obviously Hispanic; some Hispanics don't look it.)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Catholic vote
Gallup shows a tie.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154...

Obama won Catholics by 9 in 2004.

You're correct that the movement comes mostly from white Catholics: Obama is down 17 with them; if that stands on election day, it'll be close to the worst result ever for a Democrat with that group. 12 point swing from 4 years ago. I think there's a smaller swing with non-White Catholics as well; but the swing is mostly coming from white Mass going Catholics.

It has the potential to get worse, especially if Obamacare mandates stay in place, as the Church hierarchy involvement is reaching unprecedented levels in modern times:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

[ Parent ]
polling on this here
http://www.gallup.com/poll/155...
I thought this was posted last week. As you can see Obama is down 10 points from 2008 amoung both these groups while Romney is +6. The swing amoung Catholics is more toward undecided. Obama is down 9 but Romney is only up 1. Which is why I think the swing amoung Jews & Mormons are more solid. Both groups have tangible reasons (Romney being Mormon & Obama's anti-Israeli policies) for their swings.

In 2008 Obama's advantage amoung Jews matched McCain's Mormon advantage (They both got about 74% of the vote). Now Romney is getting close to 84% of the Mormon vote while Obama is down to 64% of Jews.

[ Parent ]
And yes Mormons & Jews both represent 1.7% of the US Population

[ Parent ]
Size of religious cohorts
One has to distinguish between salient religionists and those who wear their religion lightly.  Salient religionists, that is, those who take their faith seriously in both belief and practice, always trend rightward.  Something about faith qua faith makes adherents more Republican.  This hold true for Jewish, Catholics, Protestants and other religious minorities such as Mormons.

There are Mormons and Jack Mormons.  To be honest, I'd put Romney in the latter category as he appears to wear his faith lightly.  Still, in Romney's case, he remained politically and culturally conservative.  It takes a few generations to wear off the ethic and worldview of one's heritage, I guess.

Mormons are one of the few growing religions in the US.  In total, about 3%.  Now, they have Jack Mormons, but the Mormon faith requires much of its adherents, so its difficult to remain loosely affiliated, that is, partially secularized.  Mormons have almost identical voting patterns to evangelicals.

Lets put it this way: orthodox Jews, traditionalist Catholics, evangelical Protestants and most Mormons have similar voting pattersn, that is, they vote Rep.

Conversely, reformed/conservative Jews, theologically liberal/liberationist Catholics, oldline Protestants and a few Jack Mormons tend to vote Independent to Democratic.

Seculars, about 20 percent of the population, mostly vote Dem.


A proud and scared business owner

[ Parent ]
Mormons, Jews, et al
One has to distinguish between salient religionists and those who wear their religion lightly.  Salient religionists, that is, those who take their faith seriously in both belief and practice, always trend rightward.  Something about faith qua faith makes adherents more Republican.  This hold true for Jewish, Catholics, Protestants and other religious minorities such as Mormons.

There are Mormons and Jack Mormons.  To be honest, I'd put Romney in the latter category as he appears to wear his faith lightly.  Still, in Romney's case, he remained politically and culturally conservative.  It takes a few generations to wear off the ethic and worldview of one's heritage, I guess.

Mormons are one of the few growing religions in the US.  In total, about 3%.  Now, they have Jack Mormons, but the Mormon faith requires much of its adherents, so its difficult to remain loosely affiliated, that is, partially secularized.  Mormons have almost identical voting patterns to evangelicals.

Lets put it this way: orthodox Jews, traditionalist Catholics, evangelical Protestants and most Mormons have similar voting pattersn, that is, they vote Rep.

Conversely, reformed/conservative Jews, theologically liberal/liberationist Catholics, oldline Protestants and a few Jack Mormons tend to vote Independent to Democratic.

Seculars, about 20 percent of the population, mostly vote Dem.


A proud and scared business owner

[ Parent ]
AZ-8: Barber allegedly up 12
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Not going to bother posting the rest of this. Believe what you want.

26, R, PA-01.



Wow not even close
Surprised by the margin.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
Yeah, those cross-tabs boggle the mind.
Democrats are that more fired up than Republicans for this election?
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't that be expected?
I think IJB is right and it's probably just a sympathy thing though, I imagine a lot of casual Republican voters might find it awkward to go in and vote against Gabby's heir. And besides Kelly is hardly an exciting candidate, right? He's just a retread. Democrats are probably the opposite, having their civic pride engaged by their "hero" congresswoman making all the headlines.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Well, they are probably fired up to win one for Gabby . . .
I don't know if I would generalize this race to other contests in Arizona, let alone the rest of the country.  
[ Parent ]
Agree
I stand by my assertion special elections usually mean little.  The only time a special election means something you only really know after the fact.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Agree to an extent
A single special election means little outside of the district. However, if there's a pattern over and over like three in a row which happened awhile back, I start to get concerned.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
42-36 D sample
Rs have a 5-point edge in actual votes so far.
Barber should win, but the poll sample is bull****.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
And in the same poll
The election day voters are much more R than the early votes.
I believe that Barber has the edge, but we have hard evidence that the sample is bull****.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
And here we go from Roll Call:
Re: the PPP poll on #AZ08 source: "It does not match Democrats' private polling which has the race considerably closer."

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Yep
That makes sense if we adjust the polling accordingly.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
From WaPo's Blake
Even Democrats are dubious of new PPP poll in Giffords special. Source says Dem internal recently showed race near margin of error.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Yep
That sample just seems way off.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Totally Agree. With That Sample...
...this poll is b******.

I think PPP is trying to pull Barber across the line.  

[ Parent ]
Rothenberg
Going into next Tuesday's vote, observers from both sides say their candidate is slightly ahead-- but all private polling has the race within the margin of error between GOP nominee Jesse Kelly, who came within two points of Giffords in 2010, and Democrat Ron Barber

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Now This I Believe
It looks to me like PPP is going to completely destroy even its "Likely Voter" screen polling rep. in just 2 short elections...

(And count me as actually being happy about that.)  

[ Parent ]
Disagree
How is being off by 3ish in WI part of totally destroying their Likely Voter rep?  Other pollsters were off there as well, and they pretty much nailed Barrett, they just didn't have the undecideds go for Walker.

Now yes, If Barber loses PPP will have some serious egg on their face, but theres a reason virtually no one else has publicly polled this race.  Special House Elections are insanely hard to poll.  I don't think missing this and missing Walker by 3 means their Likely screen is done and should be dismissed.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
High turnout specials aren't hard to poll
This is one of them.
The sample is just goes against hard evidence.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Well
I agree the sample seems off, I'm not disagreeing about that.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Its just that PPP will have established a meme . . .
of publishing poll results in which the Dem consistently overperforms the actual election results.  North Carolina 2010, Wisconsin, Arizona, etc.  

(And no one will remember the 2009 NY by-election where the reverse was true.)

[ Parent ]
North Carolina 2010
their final poll nailed the final margin, do I really need to repost all the NC2010 polls again?

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
NC 2012 amendment


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
He posted North Carolina 2010
not NC2012 amendment, which is why I responded with my response to that subject. Since you seem to think saying these magic words are some sort of discussion ender, I disagree, this whole thing of them screwing it up is pretty much a myth. People are remembering their biased write-ups more than their actual polls. Were they off by an unusually high amount? Not particularly, their last poll had 55% supporting, 40% opposing. It passed 61-38. The average overperformance of these amendments is 5%. So radical. It makes no sense to attack them over NC2012A1 anyways since we all know these amendments over-perform at the ballot box, accounting for that over-performance they were well within the margin of error on the amendment, and amendments are notoriously hard to poll.

(P.S. the only other pollster I'm aware of polling anywhere close to the election was Elon University, who found 61% opposed to the amendment)

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
PP missed WI by 4
PPP: Walker +3
Actual: Walker +7

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
that's a pretty silly statement
"Other pollsters were off there as well, and they pretty much nailed Barrett, they just didn't have the undecideds go for Walker."

That logic gives a grand canyon-size margin of what would constitute 'acceptable'. Anything from Walker 53 - 41 to a 46-46 'tie', technically fits the 'nailing 1 of the 2 candidates' criteria.

It's meaningless.

And they missed Walker by 4. I find the Democrats' new mathematical rounding scheme quite amusing.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Right
I like how I said they were off by "3ish" is now "new Democratic mathematical rounding scheme".

Walker won by 6.8 so claiming I'm trying to spin something by that is pretty laughable imo.  Not everything is some nefarious attempt to spin stuff.


32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Isn't it customary to round?
So PPP was off by 3.8-doesn't it make sense to round that up to 4? So if you want to get technical and down to the tenth of a percent and say it was 3.8, it still doesn't change the fact they were off by more than any poll except WAA, who is fairly new to the game anyway.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
"3ish"
obviously indicates he didn't remember the precise margins, you all need to lighten up.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
I'm not laughing n/t


50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!
[ Parent ]
No, they were off by 133%
Their margin was wrong by 4 points. They were one point off on Barrett, 3 on Walker. They claimed Democrats were coming closer and had an enthusiasm gap they could close. Wisconsin was unquestionably a failure for them that just confirmed what this site has said all along, namely that PPP seems more concerned with setting a narrative that gets Obama re-elected than with preserving their reputation as a reputable poll.

I hope Kelly wins.  

[ Parent ]
WaPo
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Gotta Love How WaPo Runs With The Narrative...
...Good little DNC footsoldiers that they are.  
[ Parent ]
PPP Also Has The Greenie at 4%!
I just noticed that.

So, PPP is projecting:

1) The combined Dem/Greenie vote at 57%.

2) The Greenie at 4%!!

And this is ostensibly in a 'swing' district, not a SF Bay Area district.

To say this poll is a joke is actually understating things.

P.S. If there was this massive Dem enthusiasm gap, why doesn't it show up in the early voting figures?...  

[ Parent ]
The Green Party is taking more votes
from Kelly, not Barber.
[ Parent ]
Not sure that is correct
as the Greenie gets 10% of indie vote or 2.2% of his 4%? So +50% of the Green vote comes from indies. I might add Jensen finds very liberal indies and very liberal moderates in this poll. Then again the crosstabs on this poll is so funky I would be reluctant to make any sort of conclusion on it.

If the early vote that is announced in CD8 on Tuesday night comes in at +21% Barber, like this polls shows, I will give up sweets for a week!!!  

[ Parent ]
Yes, Which Is Another Ridiculous Detail (nt)

[ Parent ]
AZ8 early vote
is +3% edge for the GOP.

1. So of the 147K voters who have cast ballots the GOP by registration is +3% ahead.

2. Yet PPP has a pool of voters that is +6D. So exactly how can it be +6% D polling base when +21% edge among those who have already voted while the GOP has more R primary voters?  How about 56% Obama approval among moderates? Or 50% approval for Obama among indies? Or +6% percent edge for Obama among all voters in a seat the President lost by 3%. So the electorate is 9% more pro Obama even as GOP is +3% ahead among those who have cast ballots.  If you do not recall what I am talking about on Friday I posted an article that detailed how +5000 more registered republicans have turned in absentee ballots then democrats.

3. I do believe PPP is right about this. As noted the pool of voters who have cast ballots are more republican then democrats. I think this poll is about damping down GOP turnout.

[ Parent ]
I hope Kelly wins
And now, more so cause I want everyone to see how bad PPP has become since 2010 than I want a Republican pick up.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
PPP-AZ-08: Barber leads 53-41.
Barber faves are 54/38, Kelly faves are 37/59.

Link (WARNING: pdf)

The survey is of 1058 likely voters, 42D/36R/22I

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

Big sample
I guess they're weary of getting caught out there again like they did with their last minute WI-Gov poll.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Their last WI-GOV poll had a decent sample (numerically)
1,226 Likely Voters.
[ Parent ]
1,000+ for one congressional district
is much bigger than 1,200 for a statewide poll.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
does not really change the MoE much at all
When you're dealing with a sample size that is an insignificant portion of the overall population (in this case, population being voters in the special election) the MoE of the sample becomes independent of population. I know it is counterintuitive, but it is true.

The difference in MoE between samples 1058 and 1200 is 2.9% for 1200 and 3.1% for 1058. That doesn't matter if you're talking about a congressional district, a state, or the country. (Disclaimer: I used an approximation method for the MoEs, but it is a pretty good back-of-the-envelope method for 95% confidence intervals.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
thanks for stating that clearly
and it is counter-intuitive.  I have trouble getting people at work (non-statistics people) to believe that.  However, it is statistics 101 material.  If we had to poll a certain percentage of the population to get the specified MoE, then nationwide voter polls would be  prohibitive to conduct.

IL-11/M/43/Libertarianish Independent
[ Parent ]
nationwide polls are tough either way
Mostly because you simply cannot count the sample size as a random representative sample, as there are different subpopulations. I know statisticians sort of fudge the science of random sampling (in favor of representative samples) which makes everything I just said a form of fuzzy math. But such is the art of polling. If it were as simple as getting a truly random sample of 1000 people, polling would be easy. And clearly it isn't.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
agree again
and then toss in some issues with landline vs. cell only households and households that can be reached either way.  Also citizens that may vote but tend to answer the phone in Spanish, Vietnamese, Polish, or other non-English.  These are just mechanical issues I suppose, but may also effect how truly "random" a sample can be.

IL-11/M/43/Libertarianish Independent
[ Parent ]
Rob McKenna
So, on Saturday morning, I ventured a block down the street with my friend over to Rob McKenna's house. We rang on the doorbell and Rob answered, inviting us in (we had an appointment for 8:30). His beautiful Golden Retriever bolted out the door onto the porch, so he had to deal with that, but we made ourselves comfortable. After he got the dog back in from the porch, he sat down with us. He spent a good 15 minutes asking about me and my political ventures in the past (my friend's mom had told him a little bit about myself) and was just a genuinely curious guy. We also spoke a bit about Chicago as he was a UChicago law guy and then talked a bit about some of the other states' attorneys general. I was the first to tell him about the Seattle Mariners' no-hitter on Friday (which I was at!).

We then spent a good half hour talking about Washington politics, with our conversation spanning from the Congressional delegation to the 7-2 delegation after 1994 and folks who lost like Randy Tate to WA-01 to WA-Gov. I asked him how he's going to get over that hump that Slade Gorton couldn't get over twice and that Dino Rossi couldn't get over three times. Rob's strategy seems to be hacking at Inslee's margins in King County and Seattle in particular. His King County Council district consisted of Bellevue, Mercer Island, Kirkland, Newcastle, and most of Renton. He therefore has a natural base in some normally Democratic leaning towns and he says he's polling quite well in those towns and King County in general. Rob got around 34% of the vote in Seattle proper in 2004 for AG and a whopping 39% for AG in 2008 while John McCain got to something like 17% in Seattle in 2008. McKenna quickly conceded that he probably can't match those Seattle numbers he got in his AG races but said that a strong showing in which he significantly over-performs Romney in the inner ring suburbs and in Seattle would bring him to a strong victory. Therefore, it seems as if he's going to be spending a lot of time campaigning in Pierce, King, and Snohomish Counties, and, more specifically, in the bluer parts of those counties where he did moderately well in AG races. He's the exact right kind of Republican for a lot of these business friendly, socially liberal Democrats to vote for, especially against a guy as thoroughly unremarkable as Jay Inslee (which was something he pointed out). McKenna pointed out that his coalition in 2004 and 2008 included a lot of quiet private sector union support along with some environmental group support as well as almost all of the business groups in Washington State. He says he doesn't expect a lot of private sector union endorsements but that a lot of union members and union leaders have quietly been praising him and telling him they will be voting for him. He also pointed out that Democrats having nearly full control of Olympia for the past 30 years could be what does Inslee in, along with Inslee having lead an absolutely undistinguished 13 year US House career. Heck, even my friend's progressive parents are voting for him because they think he's smarter than Inslee, more qualified to take on the issues that Democrats haven't tackled in their 30 year control of Olympia, and a far more natural leader. McKenna is too politically savvy to fall for the trap of campaigning too heavily in Eastern Washington, something Dino Rossi did too much of (at least in 2012) and he recognized that Eastern Washington likes him a lot but that this race will be won or lost in King County.

Overall, I found him to be an exceptionally intelligent and very policy oriented politician. I don't think he loves the whole politics thing but I think he loves governing. He's also well spoken, though he has that "one tough nerd" feeling that Snyder gives off (but it makes him very likable). The funniest part of my chat with him was when his wife walked in with a flashy new pair of jogging shoes and he goes, "Honey... those are (pauses for a second) badass!" I really liked McKenna and think he has a great future, especially as a federal Cabinet Secretary after 16 great years in Olympia (8 as AG, 8 as Governor).

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

Nice


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
McKenna
I'm glad to hear he's not going to go the Gorton "rack up huge margins outside King" strategy. If he has this much appeal in suburban Seattle, then it's definitely possible for him to win. Hopefully the WA-GOP will learn from his strategy and realize that the answer lies not in Eastern WA, but in suburban Seattle.

As to Randy Tate and Rick White, I'm under the impression that we might still hold 1 and 9 to this day had they been better fits for suburban Seattle.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
WA-01
Yeah, they probably wouldn't have packed WA-01 with Democrats if White had survived until redistricting.

Oh, interesting fact on WA-09: McKenna said that Adam Smith is moving to the Lakemont neighborhood of Bellevue (it's pretty tony) as he wants to live in the political center of his district. He spoke fairly highly of Smith; I think Smith is actually well respected by Washington State Republicans for being willing to work with them on lots of issues and for being a good guy. He actually lives two doors down from McKenna's sister, or so said Rob.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
*15 year house career
I'd be a little worried about Inslee slightly overperforming in Eastern WA due to residual name rec (as we saw with Stockman that sort of thing is real.) So I'd hope McKenna doesn't neglect to do a quick carpet-bombing of the Yakima and the Tri-Cities with a few simple "Inslee is a Liberal" ads to make sure his margin there stays robust.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Residual name recognition?
From one single US House term? If anywhere, that name recognition would be in WA-04 which McKenna noted has trended right as older FDR Dems have passed away. This is one of those seats where the younger voters are more conservative. McKenna stomped in central Washington in his AG races and I'm sure he's going to campaign there but he knows that King is even more important. He's not going to not campaign in Eastern Washington but he's going to spend more time in King County and Seattle itself than Gorton and Rossi did (he noted that no over performance in Seattle was what killed some of their bids; doing even 5 points higher in Seattle and inner-ring King would have won the WA GOP some of those races).

Keep in mind that McKenna was a popular elected official representing WA-04 and that Stockman's opponent didn't represent those places he over-performed in any office.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
It's just something to not overlook
Yakima, KPR, and Wenatachee are dirt-cheap media markets and those are votes McKenna can win over with one TV ad dispelling perhaps some notion that they're voting for a "Central WAer" over the guy from Seattle. It's probably only worth a fraction of a percent but an important base to cover if the election is close.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
NY-Sen: Turner up 5 over Long, Gillibrand romping in general
http://www.scribd.com/doc/9665...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
I Still Suspect...
...That Long ends up pulling this out. Call it a hunch.  
[ Parent ]
Long's problem is she has no money
She has yet to go up with a single radio or television spot, while Turner and Maragos have. DioGuardi was surely helped in 2010 by being the only candidate with a TV spot up. Plus, she just brought in a new campaign manager, which can't be a strong sign.

Still, given what's poised to be supremely low turn-out, she has a chance. I just think Turner still pulls it out, probably by around 50-40-10.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
MI-14
Most unpersuasive internal poll ever? http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I truly think Peters is going to win this.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Agree
This screams desperation.  From what people tell me in Michigan, it is very hard to poll Detroit.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Poll
Yeah, not a good poll but I still think Clarke will win.  Peter's just doesn't seem like a good fit for the district.  
[ Parent ]
Peters, not Peter's

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure
I've become more and more confident in Grebner's polls over the last few years. They generally have pretty small sample sizes, yes, and high MoE, but dangit if they haven't been really accurate.

Grebner microtargets voters who have voted regularly in the past and will almost certainly vote, meaning his likely voter screen is pretty airtight. He may be off by a bit if turnout is unusually high or if Peters manages to gin up some new voters, but I'm not convinced that'll happen. Everyone seems to be thinking this is Peters' race to lose, but I'll believe it when I see it.  

[ Parent ]
When Grebner talks, I listen
I don't always agree with him, but he knows his stuff. Even Republicans respect his work, despite him being a hardcore dem.

Knowing what I know about the Detroit area, Detroit City's age demographics, and the history between city and suburb, my money is on Clarke for frankly two big reasons and one small one.

1. He's in Detroit. Lawrence is identified as Southfield. Peters is worse, in the Bloomfields.

2. Clarke is viewed as black. More importantly, he's not white. Peters is as white as you can get. That's important, especially in Detroit.

3. Clarke isn't disliked by white people. He's not a Kilpatrick or to a slightly less extent, John Conyers.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
EPIC poll
The crosstabs for the EPIC-MRA poll show that they again oversampled Republicans.  It was 39D, 37R compared to 39D, 34R in 2004.   Looking back at past EPIC polls, it's odd that Republican are always oversampled (at 37% or 38%) and Democrats are about right or slightly under-sampled (39 or 38%).  The Real Clear Politics MI summary has 16 polls, 4 of which show Romney leading.  All of the polls that showed Romney leading came from EPIC-MRA.  So I'm pretty skeptical about the results of this poll.  
Agreed
They seem to be true outliers here.

Again it will be much closer than 2008, but I doubt it will be 2004 again at least in MI.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
How was it in 2010?
In WI we just had an election with a 2010 electorate.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
2010
This election being like 2010 again is about as likely as a repeat of 2008.  The WI recall election was a separate, distinct election from the 2012 general election.  
[ Parent ]
Agree
2004 might be a good baseline as we are not sure how this election is going to take shape.  2010 less so and 2008 even less so.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Romney's going to do a 6 state, 5 day bus tour
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    
But
even if he underperforms ... 12% is a decent lead, he could afford to lose a couple points.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
Definitely
Our point is that it seems to be way off based on the sample vs. actual evidence.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Barber's Not Ahead By 12
This is just another example of PPP being ridiculous.

This race is certainly within 5 either way, and it's probably a lot closer than that.  

[ Parent ]
Big blow to Gallego in TX-23
Bustamante endorsed Rodriguez.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/ne...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Interesting from article
Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, was outspent by Gallego nearly 9-1.


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
This could turn into a huge DCCC FAIL
if Gallego loses the runoff. Of course, the NRCC has it's own failures, but Gallego has the potential to make Canseco sweat a bit. Rodriguez's nomination would probably make the GE Lean R.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
The 3rd part of the ND poll has Romney up 12
http://www.kfyrtv.com/News_Sto...

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    
More evidence that I was right about the Senate race
The poll was good. Heitkamp's is competitive right now.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
I'm Not So Sure About That...
I think 12 probably understates Romney's eventual margin in ND.

Accounting for that, I suspect Berg is slightly ahead (and that's before much advertising on his part...).  

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
New Brown and Warren Ads.

http://atr.rollcall.com/massac...

http://atr.rollcall.com/massac...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

HI-Sen
Lingle buys an entire cable channel. http://atr.rollcall.com/hawaii...

Seems like an ineffective use of money to me.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

June 12 Primary Grab Bag
SC-7: Bauer plus who else? http://www2.scnow.com/news/pee...

ME-Sen: In the twin races for bragging rights and little else, IMO it looks like Republicans will nominate the most conservative candidate (Poliquin) and Democrats the most liberal (Dill), leaving King an opening big enough to drive a truck through. http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

And another piece that considers Polqiuin the leader in the GOP race. http://www.kjonline.com/news/p...

NV-4: Cegavske has establishment support, Tarkanian has name rec, Schwartz has money. Probably the most unpredictable race tomorrow; here are two good takes on it from the two LV papers.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...
http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/de...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Hinck
Your point stands, but St. Rep. Hinck is the most liberal, which is saying something because Dill is also quite liberal, but Hinck is pretty much a bonafide democratic-socialist.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
You may be right
Though other than his extreme environmentalism, Hinck seems to be a pretty generic liberal on his website. I didn't see any "capitalism is rigged, we need to have a revolution of the 99%" stuff.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Tarkanian has a huge advantage with name id
And frankly, I think many NV Republicans regret not backing him over Angle last cycle. So, I'm guessing that he's going to win with close to 50% of the vote.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
A month of bad headlines
and pounding on TV has a way of changing that sort of thing. I agree with the RJ analyist who says it will be close with ~30 being enough to win.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
How much has been spent?
A few hundred thousand? I believe Schwartz spent about 200k, but I don't even recall Barbara C. spending much on tv. Maybe Tark wont' get close to 50%, but I do think he will win comfortably.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
+1 (nt)

[ Parent ]
Mercer Island & the Eastside Suburbs
Fun fact: Mercer Island, a place with zero Rossi precincts, is represented by a Republican in the Washington State Senate. According to my friend's mother, who is very active in the Jewish community, 8,000 of Mercer Island's 22,000 residents are Jewish.

Mercer Island is in Senate District 41, which contains more than half of Bellevue, Newcastle, Eastgate, most of East Renton Highlands, and parts of Issaquah and Renton. The seat voted 63.6% for Barack Obama and 55.8% for Patty Murray.

Another fun fact: Senate District 45, containing much of Kirland, Redmond, Kingsgate, and Woodinville, is represented by a Republican even though it voted 60.8% for President Obama and 52.5% for Patty Murray.

Are you guys sure that the Eastside suburbs are 100% dead-set against anything Republican?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

People split tickets downballot.
Gene Taylor. Chet Edwards. Bill Green. Mark DuVall. Wendell Butler. They all outperformed their parties by wide margins, but eventually they all lost because the electorate became less willing to split tickets in their favor.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Edwards
Post-DeLay, Edwards does not belong in that category. Wohlgemuth was a terrible candidate in 2004. As to 2006 and 2008, well, we ran a carpetbagger in 2006 and no incumbent Democrat was losing in 2006. Curnock was outspent by a lot, didn't even really campaign and still held Chet to 53.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Also
In response to the context in which you made this comment. We hold 63-64% Obama legislative seats in SEPA, almost kept Beth Coulson's 65% Obama legislative seat in NEIL in 2010, when a rich Democrat blasted the airwaves, and we almost kept a 66% Obama legislative seat in DelCo in 2010. Simply put, this happens frequently and it proves that messaging in areas like suburban Seattle, NEIL, and SEPA can win us >D+10 legislative seats, and that such seats may have R+ PVIs if the national party's messaging was better.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
A lot of the messaging is worth less than the paper it's written on.
National Republicans hold socially conservative and hardline fiscal positions. That will be reported in the media and will filter through pop culture no matter what is said by party surrogates and in ads. State and local parties can be viewed as credibly different by voters. Go ahead and poll the Ryan plan in SEPA and exclude Philly. See what you get interns of support. If it's above 50% with a credible sample, I'll eat my words. Until such a result is produced, I'll stick with the current strategy of putting together a coalition of conservatives.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Wait, I'm confused
Why did Republicans continually win 65 and 66% Obama seats? A lot of it has to do with messaging, to say otherwise is simply wrong...
[ Parent ]
That's state and local messaging,
as well as local voter tendencies. Past a certain point, you just can't squeeze anything else out of your messaging in terms of convincing certain voters. I'm saying that messaging at the national level, while important to have, only goes so far because many people's opinions of the national parties are set and nigh unalterable.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
But
People didn't en masse keep electing Democrats to state legislatures in the South without their constant messaging that they were different than the national parties.
[ Parent ]
Which Was Never Really As True As They Said It Was...
...which is why local Dems are going the way of the Dodo in the South, and why Republicans are pretty much already there in New England.

One of the things that people of both parties are ultimately going to have to accept is that there simply regions (or demographic groups) that your party's not going to be competitive with. It's not about "messaging" - it's that those people are never going to buy what you're selling.  

[ Parent ]
It is true
How else do you explain the Democrats retaking the 26% Obama Oklahoma HD-01 in the recent special election? Or how would you explain Delaware State Senator Dorinda Connor getting re-elected in her suburban Wilmington based 27% McCain seat?

There are just places that will respond to local messaging.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but not national messaging,
which is what you and RRR are pushing.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
The Latter Is a Fluke
The former is in urban Tulsa, if I'm not mistaken, and urban areas will tend to vote Left, which is what the Dems are - the Party of the Left.  
[ Parent ]
No on OK HD-01.
It's rural, which is exactly why Dems could so easily retake it. You're thinking of another OK state house election. That one was very close. The OK HD-01 special was not close.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yea, the Democrat won with around 60%

[ Parent ]
Yes. State and local messaging
canmessaging can do that if historical voter tendencies are in a party's favor. I was making the point that national messaging has less of an effect.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
MI-11 not safe R?
From David Nir:
I'm supposedly on Dem Syed Taj's press list. # of press releases he's sent since Thad McCotter story broke? Zero


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I'm not sure LaRouche man doesn't win
Bill Roberts may take that one. I think that name Syed isn't going to go well in most of that district outside of Canton, which knows him as a doctor.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
The McCotter petition publicity is probably what saves Syed
If not for that I would think in a low name rec election that Roberts beats Syed every time. Just ask Alvin Greene about how having a nice sounding name can help you win elections.
[ Parent ]
Posner on Capitalism
Not sure if anyone posted this, but Judge Posner (as usual) hits the mark on the challenges ahead:

http://www.becker-posner-blog....


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

My favorite blog!
Becker-Posner.  I got my doc from U of Chicago and Becker was one of my heroes.

A proud and scared business owner
[ Parent ]
TIPP National Poll
Obama 46%
Romney 42%

+4, up from Obama +3 last time.

http://www.tipponline.com/pres...

Tied in the south?
Oh yeah...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Obama gets 90%
of D's while only 3% of Ds vote for Romney. What about those 20% of Ds who would not vote for Obama in NC or PA? Or the 12% in Texas? or the +40% in AR, WV and KY? I get a little cynical when I only see 3% D vote for Romney. When the D's actually vote the Obama numbers hardly ever get to 90%.  
[ Parent ]
Not all Democrats who vote against
Obama in the primary will vote against him in the general. And some of them will call themselves Republicans too.
[ Parent ]
That probably true
and I do note that I did not say all of the primary voters for Romney.  I just doubt that Obama will get 90% of Ds. I do note this point

D primaries tend to get a more liberal pool of D voters. So if Obama is getting what numbers that he is getting it is likely that in a general pool of D's it could be lower.

I note that this poll has Romney +7 ahead among indies. One reason I was skeptical of recent polls, from several states, that had Romney down to Obama by double digits among indies.


[ Parent ]
Wouldn't Democratic primaries get a more
conservative pool of Democratic voters? Take the South, where a lot of people are still registered Democrats, but are very conservative...
[ Parent ]
several Southern states don't have partisan registration at all
Oklahoma is probably the most DINO state in the country (by registration).



41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
And It's Trending R...
OK should probably be plurality R by the end of this decade.  
[ Parent ]
Not if the choices are Obama and a felon
Conservadems need a reason yo turn out. So maybe in a contested dem primary they come out to vote for the more conserative dem, but I think it's correct that dem primary voters this year are probably more liberal on the whole than democrats generally.  

Born: CA-22 (Nunes); Just Left: CA-12 (Pelosi); Now: CO-1 (Degette)
[ Parent ]
I agree with that
in theory but conservative Ds in state after state have been left behind.

That's the classic pattern.  Once the more liberal elements takes over the D party conservatives tend to check out come primary time. Could Zell Miller win the D primary in Georgia in 2014?

Someone mentioned Pryor in AR 2014. Halter ran to the left of Lincoln in 2010 and nearly won D primary. I can tell you Lincoln was already the most leftish D senator in AR in its history. Liberals won D congressional primaries in AR1 & AR2 in 2010. I think one reason Mike Ross bailed on Gov in 2014 is that he would be too conservative to win a D primary. Yes you have to give conservatives D a reason to vote but if AA's are 35% in a D primary and then you throw in liberals & Union folks. Even in  a state like AR conservatives D are not likely to win a primary.

Senator Pryor by the way is a moderate at best and as his Obamacare votes show even that is mighty liberal.  

[ Parent ]
Barber's internals
Barber paid for an internal poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research on May 7th. The numbers after May 31st are not online.
both sides have sat on internals here
And more importantly, neither side is trying to distance themselves from the overall narrative.

When Walker starting taking a lead, Obama and such basically wrote the state off as far as a 'reflection on the national mood'. Same with NV-02 when it was obvious that Amodei was winning by 20 point, and of course PA-12.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
WA-GOV: McKenna releases Democratic endorsements,
includes a State Senator and the outgoing State Auditor (!)

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

School Employees Union for McKenna
Republican Rob McKenna has captured a key union endorsement in a gubernatorial race where Democrats have repeatedly tried to depict him as anti-union.

The Public School Employees of Washington, representing 26,000 support workers in 175 school districts across the state, voted Saturday to back McKenna over Democrat Jay Inslee.

"Rob McKenna has the potential to be a once-in-a-generation champion for education," said Judi Owens, a school secretary and president of the union.

Wow. This is a huge blow to Inslee. :)

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seat...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
Filner up 3 in SD
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Undecideds Lean Republican
Also, they find Dumanis voters going 2-to-1 to Filner, while Fletcher voters split 50-50 - I don't find either finding very credible.
[ Parent ]
Wow, Interesting Stat
Median net worth of families fell to $77,300 in 2010 from $126,400 in 2007, a drop of 38.8%
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics...

SC1-Charleston
I Helped Contribute To This Stat... (nt)

[ Parent ]
PPP for a change
Tomorrow: NC President and NV Senate. Small lead for GOP in both. Also look ahead to 2014 NV-Gov...early but Sandoval very strong

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Kudos to PPP
for its crosstabs. I appreciate them putting them out there.

Let's look at crosstabs for these polls on Hispanic voting.

I note that AZ8's PPP poll had Kelly at 35% among Hispanic voters. I got a good laugh at the hispanice agenda poll that had Romney at 23% hispanic support. If Kelly is at 35% then does anyone think Romney is at 23%?  

[ Parent ]
Wow
The NV-SSEN is shocking to me.  Democrats really could lose that then.  Makes me wonder how bad the Prez numbers will be then.

NC-PRES doesn't surprise me, I'm thinking they will show Romney up 1 or 2.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
If their NC numbers are that, then I'd add another 2
points and I'm calling it Romney up 3-4 in NC atm. With their likely voter model.


21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    
[ Parent ]
NV isn't shocking
It's been a while since a poll had Berkley leading. She has that scandal waiting to explode too.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
The only poll I know of, recently, that was said to have
Berkley up was what Reid said in that interview about his pollster having her up 2.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    
[ Parent ]
Whoops
For some reason I thought it was NV State Sen, like as a generic poll lol.  No idea why my mind went there.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Obama doesn't need NC
It'd be good for you if he were ahead there, but he'll only get North Carolina if he has over 300 EVs. So it shouldn't be a worry if he trails there.

I don't see how Nevada senate isn't in play this year. It should flip-flop.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It's Very Simple, Actually
Heller is the incumbent (though a short-term one). As such, it would be expected that he has a slight edge.

And he's maintained one almost since Day One.

I suspect we win NV-SEN, even as Romney loses the state's EC votes...  

[ Parent ]
Small Heller lead
Likely means small Obama lead. Heller should out perform Romney, as he is stronger than Romney and Berkley is weaker than Obama  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
NBC Marist
poll of registered voters had it 48-46 Obama in NV. Heller was 44-41 over Berkley if I remember correctly.

I wonder if PPP gets inline with the much maligned Marist polls of Iowa-CO-NV of two weeks ago.

[ Parent ]
Political Roundup For June 11, 2012 | 166 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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