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Political Roundup For June 13, 2012

by: SCRep

Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


Election Results

AZ-8: Democrat Ron Barber won the Arizona special election to succeed his former boss, ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Barber defeated Republican Jesse Kelly, 53 percent to 45 percent. Barber now gets to run for reelection in a renumbered district that is slightly more favorable for Democrats. Kelly has said he will run again, but he faces an Aug. 28 primary and uncertainty about whether the national party will get behind him as its nominee for a third consecutive time.

Maine: Secretary of State Charlie Summers won the Republican nomination in the Maine Senate race. He will face a general election matchup with Democrat state Sen. Cynthia Dill and Independent former Gov. Angus King.

ND-AL: Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer upset the North Dakota Republican Party backed candidate Brian Kalk. He will face former state Rep. Pam Gulleson in November.

NV-4: Businessman Danny Tarkanian beat state Sen. Barbara Cegavske, 31 to 28%. He will face state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford in November.

SC-7: Former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and Horry County Council Chair Tom Rice will meet in a runoff on June 26. On the Democratic side, former GA state Rep. Gloria Bromell Tinubu was thought to have avoided a runoff, depending on whether former candidate state Rep. Ted Vick's votes are included in the total.

President

Iowa: Mitt Romney holds a narrow lead over President Obama in Iowa, according to a new Rasmussen poll. Romney takes 47 percent to Obama's 46 percent in the poll.

Obama: Continuing on a theme from last week, President Obama's campaign is out with a new television ad that attacks Mitt Romney's Massachusetts record. The new ad will run in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

North Carolina: A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Mitt Romney leading President Obama by two points, 48% to 46%. Romney's gained 7 points on Obama in North Carolina since April, when the President led by a 49 to 44 margin. Since then, Romney's erased what was a 51 to 38 lead for Obama with independents and taken a 42 to 41 lead with that group.

Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by six points, 46% to 40%. Obama leads among women 51 to 36 percent, while men support Romney 44 to 40 percent. Obama leads 83 to 10 percent among Democrats and 43 to 35 percent among independent voters, while Republican voters back Romney 80 to 7 percent.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Trent Franks is involving himself in the Arizona Republican Senate primary by making an appearance at a Wil Cardon event in Phoenix. Franks also released a statement that was complimentary of the wealthy businessman and his Senatorial candidacy.

Hawaii: A Merriman River Group poll in Hawaii finds Mazie Hirono and Ed Case deadlocked at 46% each in their U.S. Senate primary race. The remaining 8% are still undecided. The results are nearly identical to numbers released by Case's campaign last month showing a 46-45 lead over Hirono.

Nevada: Sen. Dean Heller leads Rep. Shelley Berkley 44 to 43 percent in a PPP poll of the Nevada Senate race. A string of polls has shown the race to be a toss up.

New Hampshire: Former Sen. John Sununu is being talked up for a possible comeback attempt against Sen. Jean Shaheen in 2014. Sununu will headline an afternoon fundraiser on June 23 for the New Hampshire GOP. The appearance has caught notice among Granite State Republicans as a possible first step back into electoral politics.

SCRep :: Political Roundup For June 13, 2012
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MD-LD-24
State Del. Tiffany Alston (D-PG) convicted of theft. http://www.wbal.com/article/90...

R - MD-7

More Xroads
American Crossroads and its sister group Crossroads GPS are launching a $4.6 million ad buy aimed at Democratic Senate candidates in six states.
American Crossroads is going on the air in Nebraska against Bob Kerrey, Nevada against Rep. Shelley Berkley and Virginia against Tim Kaine. Crossroads GPS, a sister arm that can raise unlimited funds from anonymous donors, is going up against Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri, against Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and against Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Combined with ads last week in New Mexico, Indiana and Montana, it's a $5.7 million campaign.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

The Berkley ad is brutal, so is the Kerrey ad.
http://www.youtube.com/user/Am...

They got some really good ad guys.

25, Male, R, NY-10


Retail Sales
went down last month and April was revised downward. I expect May numbers to be lowered later:

http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending which is 70% of GDP which is what creates or kept jobs in our economy. Auto sales were weaker then expected in May. I note exports to Europe were down 11% in April and layoffs are picking up.

I guess with lower retail sales the "private sector is doing just fine" as far as the President is concerned. You cannot build recovery on lower retail sales.  


Nate Silver starts to take on PPP
older vs younger blacks
I don't think younger blacks are more Democratic than older blacks. Same with Hispanics.

Not sure why that was brought up.

"Meanwhile, we have entered an era where different polling firms - including Public Policy Polling - have substantial "house effects" or partisan leans. Margin-of-error calculations assume that pollsters are doing everything right - other than taking a random sample of a population, thereby introducing sampling error. But that is too forgiving a view. Polling firms introduce lots of "unforced" error into their polls because of the methodological shortcuts, like the failure to call cellphones."

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
PPP's AZ-08 poll was more off than WAA's final Wisconsin poll
12% margin for Barber, 12% margin for Walker.

Any praise/criticisms for PPP last night is applicable to We Ask America.


Absolutely


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
WAA commented on their blog on their miss
PPP on twitter last night ignored his poll miss and was busy with how he was only off by 2 points in his prediction to an AZ news outlet.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
4 elections come to my mind in 2012 where PPP polled
PPP didn't come within 3 in a single one.
OR-1, NC A1, WI-GOV, AZ-8.
Good pollster....

25, Male, R, NY-10

also
They were wrong in the Dem's direction in the three partisan races (and NV-02) and in the more "Liberal" direction for NC A1.  Has there been any poll since 2010 that has been wrong but favored the Republican side?  

[ Parent ]
OR-1


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Pure coincidence . . . Nothing to see here

/snark


[ Parent ]
Other PPP misses in 2012
FL GOP Primary:

PPP: Romney +8
Actual: Romney +15
Missed by 7

IL-10 Dem Primary:

PPP: Sheyman +18
Actual: Schneider +8
Missed by 26!

33, R, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Socialist republic of NYC
At the meeting, some of the members of board said they should be considering other limits on high-calorie foods.

One member, Bruce Vladeck, thinks limiting the sizes for movie theater popcorn should be considered.

"The popcorn isn't a whole lot better than the soda," Vladeck said.

Another board member thinks milk drinks should fall under the size limits.

"There are certainly milkshakes and milk-coffee beverages that have monstrous amounts of calories," said board member Dr. Joel Forman.


http://www.redracinghorses.com...


25, Male, R, NY-10

There is absolutely nothing socialist about this
This could be best described as statist, or maybe even stretched to fascist. But what about this resembles any tenet of socialism?

For the record, I strongly oppose this sort of law making. I am no socialist, but the ACTUAL socialists I know also oppose such measures.

statism != socialism

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Socialist v. Totalitarian
While socialists would like the wealth and everything else split evenly there's nothing in the ideology about being totalitarian. It's just that socialism needs totalitarianism to have any chance of accomplishing its goals. So people confuse the two.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Using political power, the coervice power of the state
to curb individual freedom (in this case of selling and buying high-calorie foods and beverages).

Non-statist socialism is a metaphysical paradox.  


[ Parent ]
paradox is a harsh word.
But large scale, the socialism that actual socialists envision is not practical. Believe it or not, socialists do not like the government anymore than Libertarians do, they just see it as a means to an end given the playing field right now.

However small scale socialist societies have existed for millennia. Most native American tribes lived a socialist existence before European interference. and even today there are communes of various types (religious, ethnic, etc). But it has not extrapolated well to larger societies.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Amazing contradiction, isn't it?
Most American socialists find government power in certain areas repressive. In that way they're like Libertarians. They want to pick and choose where government is allowed to be big. State run healthcare? Yes. Wiretapping Americans? How dare they?

In the socialist utopia there's no need for government. More productive people work hard for the good of the community, not for their own advantage. So they're that they get the same as people who are unproductive. Unproductive people don't need to worry about working hard, but that's okay. I've never met anyone like that, but that's why it's fantasy.

So since people won't willingly take only what the group feels they should, you need government to tell them what car to drive, what bags to use at the supermarket, and what toilet they can buy.

A problem with Keynesian economics is that it assumes people will behave in a certain way if a government does specific things. Unfortunately, that doesn't work well when you have a free market. Thus, Obama and the Democrats can get upset that all these companies are making profits and sitting on the money without hiring.

For socialism to "work" you have to commit to it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
We can use endless of theoretical definitions
Socialism in electoral politics is associated to parties and individuals that share a common underlying public policy philosophy, characterized by the concentration of power on the hands of politicians to allow strong participation by the state on the economic and social life.

Defining socialism as what existed in pre-modern economies or cooperative entrepises like monasteries that exist within a free-market context would be making the entire word and concept immaterial in nowadays politics. One only needs to look at the parties that belong to the Socialist International and add one party countries that call themselves socialists, to be aware that isn't the case.

The fact that some political theorists and proponents defined socialism as a dystopia characterized by the common but somehow non-statist ownership of all means of production without capital accumulations shouldn't be inhibit anyone to use the word in less esoteric senses.  


[ Parent ]
You are right
I should have picked my words better. But what is true is that this is only proposed by NYC's (most likely Manhattan's) latte liberals.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, It's Definitely Fascist on NYC's Part... (nt)


[ Parent ]
Its worst than that Its Big Mother!
Forget Big Brother of 1984 the real threat is from the nanny state. New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Farley it the worst when it comes to this kind of thing.  

[ Parent ]
I'd call it Mommy Statism
I mostly think of state enforced racial & religious believes when I think of Fascism.

I'm not aware of the German government in the 1930s caring what size the drinks were.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Jon Stewart has the best take on this
I fell off the couch laughing at this as Jon Stewart tries to figure out what he's allowed to put in his mouth in New York. Watch it:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/wa...
Its really funny!

[ Parent ]
For NYC comment


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
WI-Ras: Romney + 3
Not quite buying this, but shrug.

27, R, PA-07.

I Think It's Closer Than Other Polls Suggest...
...but I definitely don't by Romney ahead in WI.

My guess is that Romney's down about 3 in WI, which definitely means it's winnable for the GOP in the end.

It's definitely not "out of reach" like the exit poll (and PPP?) want you to believe...  


[ Parent ]
Maybe we should just average . . .
the most recent Rasmussen and PPP polls.

That would get us Romney +1


[ Parent ]
NRCC Ad Buy
http://www.rollcall.com/issues...

Having never bought for national congressional races I find it interesting looking at the reasoning behind their buy. If I were planning, I'd concentrate on the Lean/Toss-up districts. Your ROI on Likely districts is pretty low. You should keep yours and theirs are too tough.

I'd recommend districts with the most vulnerable congressmen, but I wonder if a generic Republican or shared ad is effective. You may need to talk about to talk about an individual candidate. Still, brand image has a halo effect, even if it's not specifically about the candidate.

I'd then look at the cost for running a schedule, say 500 TRPs, to support each candidate and recommend running in the most efficient ones. Why spend $100,000 to win a district when you can win another one spending $50,000. Of course there are other factors, including a candidate's strength/bank account and his or her opponent's. There may be political reasons for supporting one candidate over another, especially incumbents.

I'd buy Duluth and La Crosse-Eau Claire for Duffy. Maybe they'll add those later. I'd also buy Duluth for Chip Cravaack. Most of his population is in this district and it's a cheap market. It'd be bad planning to buy Minneapolis for him. The cost would be enormous for who you're reaching. I'd stick with cable for them.

The NRCC has to know this. I'd assume that this buy would support Paulsen, Bachmann, or Kline. None are considered to be in serious danger, however.

If they're supporting Johnson, Wheeling-Stuebenville would be a better buy than Youngstown.

I can't see buying Raleigh to target McIntyre. Wilmington makes a lot of sense.

Champaign/Springfield makes more sense for IL-13. St. Louis has to be for IL-12.

What's not on there:
Fresno-Visalia - They see CA-16 and 21 as low priorities.
San Diego - Hello? Brian Bilbray on line 2.
Santa Barbara - Isn't Maldonado a Young Gun?
Tallahassee - FL-2
Orlando - Stop Allen Grayson and support Dan Webster.
Des Moines - Tom Latham has a lot of money.
Albany, Buffalo, Plattsburg, Rochester, Syracuse - A lot of New York opportunity. Maybe they won't evaluate it until after the primary.
South Bend - Small market. Big return. This one isn't wrapped up.
Savannah and Augusta - John Barrow won't go quietly.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Part of this is inventory driven
If you think the small markets will have plenty of avails in the fall at the same price they are quoting now; you can hold off the time buying

This is more critical in big markets or markets where ad demand is liable to be extreme.  You don't want to be shut out from time slots or be forced to pay prohibitive CPP rates to get on

That said; there still some odd omissions on this buy list  


[ Parent ]
That's true, but...
Ad buys are cancelable and there's no way of knowing if some of these other markets will be tight. And this buy has nothing to do with market tightness. Most advertisers don't reveal their ad buy plans. They do because they want to see a message to their candidates, the opposition, independent expenditure 3rd parties, and the media.

San Diego isn't a small market.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
They have to target Raleigh
to get to voters in Johnston, Sampson, counties, etc.

Wilmington doesn't reach them, and Johnston is a heavily populated R county that they will need to turn out big.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    


[ Parent ]
Reaching them
So you reach them in a less wasteful way. It doesn't make sense to advertise in Raleigh-Durham when most of the DMA's population is outside the district.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Missing
The Philadelphia and Harrisburg media markets are not on there.  That means the NRCC sees no real threat in South Jersey or southeastern Pennsylvania.

When was the last cycle the NRCC did not reserve air time for this region?

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Before TV was invented?
I chose to film in Philadelphia in 2010 partly because PA-6, 7, 8, 13, and 15, along with NJ-3 and 12 were all considered in play. There's nowhere else you're going to find 7 swing districts within driving distance. And I'm not even including DE-AL.

Gerry meet mander.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
SC-7 Democrats call for runoff
How do you rate Brittain chances?
Do you think some Tinubu primary voters may abandon her? If she holds them, it should be enough to win, no?

[ Parent ]
Have to call her the favorite
after her strong showing yesterday. Rarely does a candidate take 49% and fail to win a runoff. Brittain should have the money though to blanket the district with TV, but that and the establishment endorsements didn't help him in the first round. Tinubu just needs to get her turnout out again and she should win. This uncertainty over whether a runoff takes place could confuse the race though for either side. Only have 12 days as of today.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
See, this is why runoff elections are stupid
Making people take time out of their busy day to vote in the same primary twice in 14  days. Not to mention the actual cost if holding two elections with ballots and emplyee time, facilities, etc. Had there been IRV set up, this would be over and done with with Tinubu emerging with a majority on election night.

This runoff business is completely illogical.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
NC
I think the way South Carolina conducts runoffs is counterproductive. Like most Southern states that have runoffs, South Carolina requires getting 50% to avoid a runoff. Another cumbersome feature of its runoffs is having the runoff so soon after the primary. I like how North Carolina does runoffs. The cutoff for avoiding one is 40% and there's a long cooling off period between the primary and the runoff; it's always at least a month and this year it's two and a half months. I would rather have runoffs than candidates winning with a scant plurality of the vote. Regarding IRV, I don't like having to choose a first and second choice. I think voters should only be voting for one candidate at a time. Seeing how defeated primary candidates lend support to one candidate over the other (or none) in a runoff is interesting and, in my opinion, it encourages the Democratic process.

[ Parent ]
Runoffs Are Good, But The Cutoff Level...
...should not be set at 50%. It's ridic. if a candidate gets 49.5% but is forced in to a runoff. That's a waste of everyone's time.

I favor as the cutoff level one of <45%, < 42% or <40%.

I suspect 40% is too low a threshold, so I think I'd support 42% or 45% as the best threshold for determining whether a runoff is needed.

But, yeah - candidates who tops out at 48% shouldn't be forced to go to a runoff. But a race that tops out at 38% should definitely go to a runoff, IMO...  


[ Parent ]
I like IVR for party primaries and hate it for general elections
I think an IVR system for a primary works quite well. All candidates are in some sense quite similar since they all belong to the same political party. In a primary IVR system voters are still only voting for members of 1 policial party as opposed to a general election where voters still need to vote for an rank candidates that they might not agree with or want elected. For example if IVR existed in the 2010 NY Gov race I would have had to decided who I wanted to NOT be Governor of NY more Charles Barron or Elliot Spitzer's Madam! I dont think thats a fair burden to put on any voter!

[ Parent ]
In the London Mayorals
You only get one transfer.

Its Australia where your fined if you don't rank all 17 candidates.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I like the top 2 IVR system
in which if no candidate gets 50% of the vote all other candidates are instantly eliminated and voters who vote for them have their votes reassigned to either of the top 2 candidates based on where they ranked them.
To me this is the fairest way to do it and makes it a true instant runnoff. I do not like the system they use in California in San Fran & Oakland. To me that kind of system can elect candidates who are not the true choice of the majority.  

[ Parent ]
Racist/Anti-Women SC Dems try to deny Tinubu the nomination!!!!
Stop the Dem war on women and people of color!!!

/snark


[ Parent ]
'Cause this really helps the GOP
http://www.patriotledger.com/y...

You have to shake your head when you see Republican candidates fighting in a tough district.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


This Is What Primaries Are For
If I'm a voter, I want to know if one of the candidates is basically a closet D running for office as an 'R' just to get elected.

I don't buy that stuff like this seriously hurts your chances down the road. Our "chances" in this district are miniscule anyway.


[ Parent ]
MA-4
the way to win this seat is through a coordinate national campaign against JFK. It's high time his reputation was brought back down to earth... but until that happens anyone with the last name Kennedy (running as a Democrat) will be unbeatable in Mass. So who cares.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
lol I love this tweet from PPP
Bev Perdue's approval is 47% this month...with Democrats


22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

But she's still roaring back and poised for victory!
lol.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
SD-Sen; Johnson signaling another run
http://m.siouxcityjournal.com/...

I think he retires once it is clear that Mike Rounds is running, which I imagine is very early in 2013.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Ben Nelson redux
except Republicans are likely to make the fall a lot more quick and painless by actually landing our top recruit.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Is Rounda interested in being a senator?
I figured he would be angling for a 2016 presidential run. Rounds is the only candidate that might make Johnson retire.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
He acknowledged his interest publicly earlier in the year


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Buzz is he is
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Rounds?
For POTUS? With the field that is shaping up for 2016 if Romney loses, I can't imagine that ever entering his mind. He has talked about a Senate run, and, even if he doesn't run, Kristi Noem and her war chest will be a pretty big threat.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Johnson loves running the Banking Committee
and I think he might want to continue doing that.

[ Parent ]
Many senators that retire don't necessarily want to
But they do so because the thought of getting destroyed like Santorum or Lincoln doesn't appeal to them. Mike Rounds is very popular - almost Hoeven like in ND - and just like Dorgan, Johnson will be forced out one way or another.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Dorgan wasn't forced out by the thought of Hoeven
Hoeven wasn't going to run against him (the two are very close) Dorgan retired because his wife did not want him to run for another term...

And once again, Johnson isn't unpopular. Lincoln and Santorum were. Rounds may start out leading, but it isn't going to be a race where one candidate gets "destroyed."


[ Parent ]
PPP had Johnson at 47/41 in February
In March of 2009, they had Lincoln at 45/40. http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Santorum is an entirely different story. But Johnson isn't in significantly different shape from the pre-HCR Lincoln.


[ Parent ]
Ok, but do we expect some
big vote that's going to send Johnson tanking over the next two years?

[ Parent ]
Was Lincoln expecting HCR to blow up on her in June 2008?
We have no idea what's going to happen in the Senate in 2013-14. Depending on who is President and who controls Congress, Johnson could certainly find himself as a swing vote. What if Dems take the House back and Obama pushes forward with more 2009-style policy, forcing Johnson into a bunch of tough votes? Or if Romney wins and the GOP gets to 54ish in the Senate, putting Johnson on the path to 60 for McConnell? Point is, there's no way to tell how he holds up in the 113th. But that he has 41% disapproving shows that he's not an invincible Rockefeller or Snowe.

[ Parent ]
Lincoln's relations with Arkansas probably
ended in mid-2007. And I knew she was likely cooked then. The healthcare bill was the nail in coffin for her.

[ Parent ]
That is not true
The NRSC was actively recruiting Hoeven. And low and behold, he got in pretty quickly after Dorgan retired - something he denied for about a year prior to his decision. If he wasn't going to do it, than one would logically think that he would wait before getting in.

Also, you missed my point with the examples I gave. No incumbent senator wants to lose big. And against Rounds that could happen.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
And you miss my point
that no incumbent Senator (who is not in his first-termer) who has a 47/41 approval is going to lose big!

By the way, what's your source for the NRSC recruiting Hoeven? And for Hoeven actually wanting to run if Dorgan had run for reelection?  


[ Parent ]
Well...
First off, 47/41 for a long time incumbent in a solid GOP state is nothing to brag about. In fact, it indicates vulnerability. However, since I imagine Rounds probably has an approval rating around 60, I think it is safe to say that Johnson will retire rather than take the challenge. Especially, since he has votes for Obamacare, stimulus, etc...that have probably gone under the radar, since he rarely is on television.

As for Hoeven, I suggest you google it, since it was quite public. It might help to look at Roll Call's archives too, from say September 2009 until January 2010 - up until Dorgan's announcement, which I think was in December/January.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Judy Biggert
Take a look where Judy Biggert has been campaigning: https://www.facebook.com/photo...

If this pictures doesn't tell you a thousand words about where her internals are showing her, I don't know what would. I'm hearing she's slightly from a multitude of sources and it's great news if she has time to leave DuPage County.


Great Picture
and half the battle in winning votes is just showing up.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
"She's Slightly [Leading]..."?...
Is that what you were trying to say:

"I'm hearing [Biggert]'s slightly AHEAD from a multitude of sources..."


[ Parent ]
*slightly up
My bad.

[ Parent ]
Not sure what you mean here
What does Biggert marching in an Aurora parade tell  her internals (other than the fact that Aurora is in her new district)?

[ Parent ]
Biggert
She has time to campaign in the tougher parts of the district and isn't forced to struggle with milking every single vote she can out of DuPage because she is already doing a great job at that. Campaigning in Aurora and Joliet means she has time to for the jugular here. A more desperate campaign strategy would be ignoring Joliet and Aurora altogether and instead solely focus on DuPage and Will Counties.

[ Parent ]
well
I would think that the Dupage voters are already familiar with voting for Biggert or another GOP Congressman.

It would be then prudent to introduce yourself to new voters rather than double down on the ones you have.

I think though that this will be lean R soon. For some reason being a pro-choice female really helps a GOP candidate cast themselves as 'moderate'.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
All of Dupage is repped by Republicans now
So that's not a big deal. While she should spend more time on traditionally Republican areas, the difference between getting 25% and 35% in Democratic areas can win the election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Look at the whole picture
I'd wager most of the people in it are not Republicans. Biggert showing strong attention to that part of the district can probably help her overperform there.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
ND-AL: This wasn't really an upset, as polling showed Cramer up heading into the primary.

Obama ads: The obsession with NC is a bit annoying.

PA-Pres: This poll seems pretty credible, though the number of undecideds is a bit high. Obama should be losing a few more Dems, but otherwise it seems kosher.

AZ-Sen: Does anyone know Franks' reason for backing Cardon? I get the impression that both Flake and Franks are great guys, but maybe they just don't like each other.

NH-Sen: I would love to have John Sununu back in the Senate.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)


You Think Obama Leading...
...among PA Indies is "kosher"?! I sure don't.

One of my current poll litmus tests is Indies - if Obama is shown leading 'Indies' anywhere outside of a 'hard' Blue State, and I immediate brand that poll's findings as suspect.

There is nothing about the current environment that implies Obama will do well among Indies. In fact, I expect him to get blown out with them (unless the economy miraculously surges by Oct...).  


[ Parent ]
Reactions
ND-AL: This is a huge deal that someone defied the convention system on a grand scale and won. For reference, ND had only about a half dozen contested legislative primaries yesterday. I bet this really opens up the floodgates of disgruntled primary challengers and turns ND into, if not a pure primary state, than at least a more MN-like system where obeying the party endorsement is optional.

AZ-Sen: The two of them are exact opposite types of conservatives, Franks is a total SoCon and Flake is a total FisCon. Simple as that.

NH-Sen: So would I (School Pride!) but I'm afraid he may have missed his chance by not running in 2010. Shaheen as an incumbent is going to be tough to beat as she's pretty non-controversial. Sununu has a great shot if Obama wins re-election; with president Romney it's probably a fool's errand.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen
Flake is a devout Mormon last time I heard, so he's no social moderate.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Right
But if you offered a choice between sweeping entitlement reform and a constitutional ban on abortion, Flake would pick one and Franks the other.

[ Parent ]
Question of policy emphasis
Franks is most passionate about social issues.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Franks
He was making plans to run for Senate this cycle and abruptly cancelled them shortly before people thought he was going to announce a candidacy for it. I think the party establishment in Arizona basically forced him out of running in favor of Flake and maybe him endorsing Cardon is sour grapes.

[ Parent ]
Cheapskate. Adelson has a $20+ Billion net worth . . .
He could EASILY give $200 million.  

[ Parent ]
Apparently
according to WSJ he is giving more.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
NC PPP McCrory by 7
Adjusting for bias and it's almost safe R.
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Of course
There are some reasons for encouragement for Dalton in this poll. His post-primary bounce has sustained itself for the last month despite the negative ads being run against him. It seems unlikely that McCrory will return to the 15 point lead he started out the race with, or anything particularly close to it. McCrory's also losing his image as a centrist. 44% of voters think he would best be described as a conservative to only 27% who think he's a moderate.


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Downballot effect
One outcome of a Republican leading at the top of the ticket could be tough times for some Democratic Council of State members seeking reelection. Incumbent Treasurer Janet Cowell leads challenger Steve Royal only 34-33, and Auditor Beth Wood is tied with her challenge Debra Goldman at 36%. In the other statewide race where the general election match up has been set Republican Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler has a commanding 45-31 lead over challenger Walter Smith.


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Bwahahahaha.
For months people have been telling me that McCrory would have no effect on the CoS elections in NC. I think this poll proves that wrong.

Ultimately quite a bit does depend on the individual candidates, but this is a very, very good year to be running statewide as a Republican in NC against a Democrat with 30-40% name rec.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Treasurer
I'm surprised at how close the race for Treasurer is. The Democratic incumbent, Janet Cowell, has a lot of money in her campaign account and has gotten positive press about how her department has invested money. Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis has even spoken positively about her. This goes to show how little known the CoS office holders are in North Carolina. Down-ballot candidates are greatly subject to how the candidates of their party are performing at the top of the ticket. It's even more of a factor in North Carolina because voters are able to vote straight-ticket with the push of one button (this doesn't apply to presidential voting).

I thought Auditor would be a competitive race because Beth Wood hasn't raised much money plus she's running against a woman. It also probably is less of a well-known position than Treasurer. Once the runoff for Secretary of State is decided, seeing a general election poll for that race will be interesting. Elaine Marshall has been an incumbent for many terms but maybe this year the coattails of Pat McCrory and Mitt Romney will be enough to defeat her.  


[ Parent ]
Running against a women
is irrelevant to whether or not Wood wins. My expectation is she will lose, as she is less well known than Corwell, and does not seem like a strong campaigner.

I expect Democrats will keep Marshall, Cooper and Corwell when all is said and done.  


[ Parent ]
Not a bad prediction
Goodwin could also pull it out as well. I think Wood and Atkinson are both more likely to lose than not, while Marshall, Goodwin, and Cowell all have slightly better than 50-50 shots (with those 3 in ascending order of victory likelihood).

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Women
The GOP nominee for Auditor being a woman probably is relevant. Women comprise 8 percent more of the people PPP polled than do men. Those percentages most likely track closely with the male/female voter ratio in the state. I know for judicial races in North Carolina that women tend to do better than men because there are more women voters and judicial candidates are not listed by party. The same probably is true for down-ballot partisan statewide races. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems logical in cases where voters are voting in low information races.

[ Parent ]
Are we going to do that with every PPP poll now?
Remember, SurveyUSA had McCrory +5, and Rasmussen McCrory +9, so its McCrory plus high single digits.

7, 8, or 9 is not worth the argument.  


[ Parent ]
I don't know
We have a problem with PPP. They haven't gotten close in a SINGLE poll this year vs. the actual results.
We have to adjust and it's hard to say where and when.
They have gone from a terrific pollster in 2008 to a slightly above average in 2010 to atrocious in 2012. It's called the Rasmussen trajectory. He went through the same path.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Well, I'm fine doing that when PPP
seems like they are producing bad results. But you can't assign a "bias" to PPP or Rasmussen. Each poll has to be judged on its own merits.

[ Parent ]
Which is why we have a big problem here
With both PPP and Rasmussen. We don't how far off they are in each poll. They both might get something right randomly.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Well right
But what are the chances of them both being off by a lot, as you seem suggest?

(And then there's SurveyUSA...)


[ Parent ]
SUSA
While they have blown their far share of races, they are still better than PPP. Which brings us to the point that pollsers are taking shortcuts and are getting worse sadly. There are very few good pollsters left. Suffolk is my gold standard.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
*fair


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, if SUSA is better
then McCrory is almost certainly right around where PPP has him right now.

And yes, I agree that pollsters are taking shortcuts. I still like Quinnipiac.


[ Parent ]
Yes
A few universities don't take shortcuts and try hard to get polls right. Marquette, Q and Suffolk come to mind. Other universities are bad.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Plus
Those were all right after the primary when Dalton might have gotten a bounce.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The President doesn't want you to click on this link
http://www.baycitizen.org/soly...

He wishes everyone would buy his story and it'd go away.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Liberal bigotry: bad news for Harry Reid
At this pace, he'll never survive a contested primary in 2016:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckayc...


According to American National Election Studies, nearly 35 percent of national respondents said in February they were "less likely" to vote for a Mormon. That's up nine points from 2007, when Pew found 26 percent of voters expressing concern about pulling the lever for a Latter-day Saint.

(..)

According to the paper, concern about Mormonism has remained relatively stable among Evangelicals, with 36 percent expressing aversion to an LDS candidate in 2007 and 33 percent doing so in 2012. But among non-religious voters, that number shot up 20 points in the past five years, from 21 percent in 2007 to 41 percent in February. There were also substantial increases in Mormon-averse voters among liberals - 28 percent in 2007 and 43 percent in 2012 - as well as moderates, who went from 22 percent in 2007 to 32 percent this year.



eh
It's just another chance for Romney-hating Obamabots to express displeasure for the Republican.  They are mentally subbing his name in.  If the question was "Are you more or less likely to vote for Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid because he's a Mormon, the number would be a lot different.

[ Parent ]
I think a liberal might say:
"Harry Reid's a Mormon. Well, he's not a real Mormon." The implication would be that Mormons are bad people based on their beliefs, but Harry Reid is a good person. So he really doesn't believe what they do.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I was just joking. If Romney was Muslim or Jewish, we'd be seing Islamophobia and Anti-Semitisme raising.  

[ Parent ]
AFL-CIO 'neutral' in NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07
Who did Shelley Adler piss off?

27, R, PA-07.

John Adler PO'ed the left a few times
I know he was a no on HCR, and I think he took a couple other votes that the unions weren't too happy about. Apparently they feel the same way about Shelley.

[ Parent ]
Have you forget we have a Union Man
running in NJ3. He was a dues paying member during his NFL years. I wonder if he was a team union representative?  

[ Parent ]
NH Sen
How many times have the same 2 candidate faced off in three consecutive Senate races?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Rothenberg moves AZ-2 to Lean Democratic
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

I don't see it. Barber won a high turnout election by 6+ points and may run against Kelly again. The district moves 3 points more Obama. I'd make it Likely Democratic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Meh, ok for now
Have to see who the opponent in November will be and how competitive AZ will be, theoretically a different challenger and a Romney romp (and Obama pullout) in Arizona could submarine Barber. Not likely, but at least worth watching through summer to see how he does in office/fundraising/etc

Marco Rubio 2016, please

[ Parent ]
Martha McSally will be the nominee
She only lost 35-25 and she got a late start an Kelly had an enormous advantage with name recognition. Plus, she won when only looking at those that voted on election day and AZ-2 had new territory that will further weaken Kelly.

With McSally I think it is a tossup/tilt D to start, but her potential could swing this race to the GOP quite quickly.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Just so you know
in the parts of new AZ-02 retained from the old AZ-08, Obama lost 47.5-51.2, but Ron Barber is winning tonight 53.6-43.6. And the new parts of AZ-02? 66.4-32.1 Obama.

[ Parent ]
So what?
The district overall is essentially 50-50. And Kelly is a weak candidate, while McSally is an intriguing one that could prove to being very strong. Are you under the opinion that candidates don't matter?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Well, McSally could be (key word is could)
That doesn't mean she is. How does McSally overcome that advantage? It's not one that's close - it's a big Obama advantage. And you seem to be underestimating Barber too.


[ Parent ]
Barber ran a weak campaign
So I'm not sure what you saw that makes you think otherwise. Had McSally been the nominee I'm sure she would have won this race, as Kelly had a clear ceiling due to his 2010 campaign. And frankly, other than attaching himself to Giffords and using Kelly's words against him, he didn't have anything going for him. He continually made gaffes and was inarticulate even when it came to party talking points. The guy is clearly a staffer and not a pol, so I wouldn't be worried about him at all.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
If you ask anybody who worked on the campaign
whether Barber ran a weak campaign, you will get a resounding "no." Kelly had to remake himself because Barber constantly hit him on his idea to phase out Medicare and Social Security. In a district full of seniors, ads like these work. Below I have Barber's closing message from the campaign. If you look at Barber's approval from the PPP poll and move it 8 points to the right to include bias, you have his approval rating at +8. That's not the sign of a weak campaign.

http://thehill.com/video/campa...


[ Parent ]
I'm sure
Folks who worked on Barber's campaign think highly of him, but they really aren't the most objective bunch, now are they?

And Kelly had to reinvent himself because of his 2010 campaign and because of what happened to Giffords. Barber had nothing to do with it.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
That's a DCCC ad
Wrong link.

Kelly running a more moderate campaign had nothing to do with Barber's strengths.

I also chuckle at the assertion that people within the campaign staff say it wasn't weakly run. Who are you going to believe, us or your lying eyes?!

We saw Barber stumble on basic questions about Obama and Pelosi. He needed Giffords to swoop in at the last minute and make an appearance, even though she's still recovering from the shooting. These are not the qualities of a confident well-run campaign.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Well if you believe PPP
Obama won the electorate that showed up last night by 6 points. Even if you adjust, the special election electorate was more Democratic than the 2008 electorate.

I wonder if Romney might outperform McCain by a couple points in Arizona.


[ Parent ]
That is dizzying
So you're saying that an average part of AZ-8 is moving to AZ-2, but more Obama friendly areas are going to be added to it? I think that'd be implicit in that the district moves 3 points to the right and reiterate what I wrote that if Kelly can't win AZ-8, he won't win AZ-2 3 points to the right.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Or left
3 points to the left.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
AZ-02 isn't moving three points to the right...


[ Parent ]
Oh, I saw your followup comment
I'm confused...what part do you not understand?

[ Parent ]
The part
where you restate what I wrote but in a longer more roundabout way.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Oh, sorry
Yes, that was confusing. That was a copy from the stats folks at DKE.

But let me clear it up:

Old Parts of AZ-08 now in AZ-02:
McCain 51.2%
Obama 47.5%

Barber 53.6%
Kelly 43.6%

new parts of AZ-02
Obama 66.4%
McCain 32.1%


[ Parent ]
Is Giffords going to campaign for Barber every cycle?
I think the sympathy effect wears off after a while, and then we'll see how well Barber can do on his own.

The fact that he stumbled multiple times on supporting Obama and Pelosi makes me think he's quite weak given a neutral environment.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
He's Wrong - It's Somewhere Between "Likely" and "Safe" (nt)


[ Parent ]
How do you rate Jesse Kelly as a candidate?
On a 1-5 scale?

[ Parent ]
A '2'
But it's not like any other candidate is going to win this seat either...  

[ Parent ]
Likely or Safe
It depends on how you consider Likely and Safe. I consider Safe a district that we don't have to watch. It won't become competitive. Barring something unforeseen like scandal or a candidate dropping out, safe seats shouldn't move to likely. I see a likely district as one that probably won't be competitive but I won't dismiss the possibility that it will.

Using my criteria I couldn't put a swingy district won in a special with the opponent unknown on safe. I'd say likely for AZ-8. My biggest concern would be fundraising. The primary is late in the year and it might be tough to convince people that the Republican nominee can win.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Democrats suffer 3 Southern losses yesterday
Interesting
The increasing Democratic irrelevancy in the South makes taking the majority difficult this year and going forward.  VRA by itself might mean the Democrats have perpetual minority status.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Not a good article
From everything I've seen Ellington is a stronger GE candidate than Clark, but they're describing Ellington's win as a blow to Dems' chances.

[ Parent ]
I have seen Clark Hall referred to
as the preferred DCCC pick. He was heavily supported by the Blue Dog caucus in the House. I guess its debateable who is considered stronger, but I think most national Democrats preferred Hall.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
National Democrats did
Doesn't mean he was the stronger candidate.

[ Parent ]
No, just means they thought he was stronger
again whether he really is isn't known.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Here's the story on Ellington
and I guess everything is open to debate.

1st Hall grabbed the Blue Dog support in AR and DC so he got all the notice and money. Ellington has raised very little money.  He reported 74K raised as of 05-23-2012. Literally no cash in bank as of right now. Of course Hall has no money but he spent much of it attacking Ellington!!!

2nd Ellington is not a natural gladhander like Hall. Hall is a slick political pro while Ellington was and is a DA. I believe that office is nonpartisan in AR but either way he is not slick. I do note that many believe Ellington would never have run for office without the publicity generated by West Memphis Three case. Some, like myself, believes he kowtowed to Hollywood by letting the three boys go free.

3rd Unions, liberals and AA voters lined up against Clark and for Ellington. Now Ellington might not be a flaming liberal but folks down here notice real hard who your supporters are. This was a blue dog seat and right now Ellington has no blue dog support. Of course if he wants to bite the hands of the folks who supported him in the primary have at it.

4th Geography is so often destiny. Notice hometown effects in races this week? AR1 is roughly 1/3 Delta, 1/3 NE and 1/3 Little Rock suburbs and Ozarks foothills. Crawford will zoom in the later area and Ellington will likely be weaker then the blue dog Hall there. Heck Hall's Delta area mostly rejected Ellington and there is bad blood now as the primary was bitter so Crawford will almost certainly do better in Delta area. In the NE Crawford won that area in 2010 and has worked it hard. I think worst case for Crawford he matches his 2010 numbers there.

So overall I tend to agree that Ellington with his sad fundraising and lack of Blue Dog support is a worse candidate for this fall. That being said Hall was not without major drawbacks. Crawford would have really romped in NE if Hall was the nominee. Still overall I stand by my thoughts on Ellington.  


[ Parent ]
Well, your opinion on Ellington is what it is
but it's clear he's been a popular official in Craighead County (Jonesboro) and he did well in the primary there. I think he could probably win Jonesboro and narrow the margins in other places in the Northeast. If you get Paul Bookout and Robert Thompson to campaign for them as well, I could see Ellington doing well in Greene. Of course, he's almost certain to win Clay.

I agree that Ellington is going to do worse in the Little Rock suburbs than Hall would have done. But we are talking about areas like Lonoke, which were going to vote against the Democrat anyway.

As for the Delta - Hall may have won there (because of the home district effect) on Tuesday, but I think these areas will probably vote for Ellington in the fall. Some of these areas will even be voting for Barack Obama again, and there will be less than 1% who vote Obama/Crawford. A lot of these voters voted for Chad Causey in 2010.

I think I'll do a diary trying to determine the baselines for an Ellington win.


[ Parent ]
To be clear
The only counties where Hall would have done better than Ellington in the Delta are Poinsett and Cross. Ellington can more than make up the margin in the populated areas of Jonesboro and Paragould.

[ Parent ]
I tried to be fair with Ellington
and if its one thing I learned after nearly 40 years of looking at political races it is not be absolutely too sure about anything.

1st the lack of Blue Dog support for Ellington and poor money raising is what it is. Ellington has not attracted any big business money and likely is not liberal enough to get a lot of labor money. Of course big labor is not exactly popular in AR1. So where does he come up with the money to compete in 5 months?

2nd there is not alot of expirience for GOP congressman running in the AR Delta as Crawford is the 1st one to represent that area. Yet in the South the classic pattern of agricultural areas like the Delta is for incumbent congressman, republican or democrat, to do better over time.

3rd fair enough its a topic of dispute about what will happen in NE AR. I guess we will see. As DA Ellington has not been constantly glad handing and campaigning for office. DA's are fairly nonpartisan and rarely show once or twice a week at political gatherings.  Crawford has an office in Jonesboro, with local staff, and has cultivated the area. So I guess we will.  


[ Parent ]
Good points
1) Yes, Ellington's poor fundraising is a concern. Though it speaks to his popularity and name recognition that he beat someone who was running ads and was raising a decent sum of money.

2) You are right in some respects. Crawford should generally do better as time goes by, but there's no reason to think he will be winning West Memphis or Helena or areas where Obama's going to win. I would bet you agree with me that we will see some Romney/Ellington voters but little to none Obama/Crawford voters. Another thing - Crawford has not been that visible south of Jonesboro. I'd still expect him to win, with places like Cross trending Republican, but it may not be by the margin he wants.

3) Right again here, and I agreed with you up until the primary. Hall ran a complete campaign and still lost. I think this shows that Ellington has at least some name rec and popularity in Jonesboro. I rarely visit the NE, so you probably know more about this than me. Crawford's best office/constituent services are clearly in the Northeast. The question is whether Ellington's name rec/local popularity will outdo Crawford's constituent services here.  


[ Parent ]
Let me clarify
one more time. I doubt Crawford will win AR Delta but if he does as well or 3 or 4 % better(my expectation) and improves a bit in LA rock suburbs/Ozarks then how can he lose? He won 55% in 2010? If he breaks even, over 2010 numbers, in Delta and improves a smidge in GOP areas then he would have to fall out of bed in NE to lose. We will never know if Hall would have been better as he fumbled away his primary. Hall needed to secure nomination 1st by securing the nomination and then move rightward. He moved rightward before the primary and apparently that is no longer a D plan for AR.  

[ Parent ]
Weird fact
2013 will be the first time in 50 years that Hawaii has had a senator who didn't serve in the armed forces during World War II.

R - MD-7

Price of supporting Obama layoffs
have been announced in four newspapers in the South.

http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

The Times Picayue and 3 major Alabama newspapers have announced major layoffs. Nearly 600 employees will be laid off and many apparently AA journalists.


Jeanne Shaheen, not Jean
although I've never heard it pronounced; is it pronounced as Jean? I always thought it was Jee-Ann

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


I believe it's pronounced like Jean
I'm pretty sure I've heard it pronounced that way for her. I've never heard "Jeanne" pronounced "Jee-Ann", although I have heard it pronounced like "Jeanie".

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
"Jean Shu-heen"
Listen to her say it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

[ Parent ]
It rhymes
As we in the Boston media market heard a million times in 2002 and a billion times in 2008. The ads for that race were on TV so much that some (obviously low info) people I knew were looking for Shaheen's name on the ballot in 2008 and were surprised to find only John Kerry.

[ Parent ]
I've heard it pronounced two ways
I've heard it pronounced two ways. Jean or Jeanie.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
AR-GOV: McDaniel announces he is running
R side
Any new info here? I know Curtis Coleman is in, but that's nothing to us. Is Darr still looking at this race?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Nah. I'm sitting this one out. /end snark
Seriously, though, this is expected but still bad news for for the ARGOP.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
Nothing from Darr
He could certainly make this competitive, but he's doing nothing to raise his name recognition right now (he had been doing that back in late 2010 and early 2011, when he ripped McDaniel for not suing Obamacare). And name rec is what he needs.

The other people I've heard mentioned are State Representative Loy Mauch (who's got his own problems), and I guess Tim Griffin, if he decides that McDaniel's an easier target than Pryor.

Of course, if Democrats nominate anybody else but McDaniel (netroots intervene on behalf of Halter?), we have no chance.


[ Parent ]
I love the way the +700
paid staff that Obama is always talking up their ground. Yet what happened in WI? Yup somehow the GOP ground game mobilized more voters.

I post articles like this every week or so but yet it gets notice. I guess I need the Obama puff piece machine.

http://blogs.desmoinesregister...

In 2007-2008 time period the Obama campaign and D's unleashed a massive voter registration machine. Now in 2012 all we get is puff pieces about how awesome the D groundgame is. You know groundgame rule #1 is get your voters registered and the Obama campaign has built this massive machine but nothing is happening. I beginning to wonder if the Obama campaign thinks people can actually vote using an App on their Iphone or whether we are counting Twits instead of Votes this year.  


[ Parent ]
err, that's 2 months old
NT.

The conditions described might be present, but they've narrowed.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Related article: RV vs LV, tunrout risks for Obama
[ Parent ]
I'll see your Instant Runoff and raise it a game of Craps
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics...

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

String Betting! lol


Member, Small Government Caucus

21, Pro-life Libertarian-leaning R, NC-1



[ Parent ]
The first roll went off the table and the second roll was a tie!
They had to have 3 rolls just to resolve the game of chance!

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
I can understand a roll of the dice for a tied General Election
but for a runoff shouldnt the winner of a tie be the candidate who got the most votes in the 1st round? To me that seems more democratic.

[ Parent ]
WaPo Headline
You continually see headlines about Democrats drive for 25 House seats. Can they do it? Maybe!

There's rarely an article about Republicans picking up 4 senate seats and when there is an article on one the headline reads:

"North Dakota's Senate race is no sure thing for GOP"

You compare what the Democrats can't do to what the GOP may fail to do. And people wonder about media bias.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


PPP Obama up 6 in NV
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

Translation: It's Actually Tied!!! ;) (nt)


[ Parent ]
Even with the Hispanic sampling issues...


[ Parent ]
Well, Romney doesn't need to win
NV to win the election. I'm not too worried about NV, but i'm a little curious for someone else to poll NV so we can know whether purpleState, or PPP seem to be closer to reality.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
Purple Strategies Poll
This reminds me, have we ever seen the rest of that poll? We only had full results for four states last week.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Marist had Obama only +2
PPP has a consistent D house effect and it might be intentional.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Sure, so PPP's D House effect
moves it to D+2 or D+3, and then you have to adjust it up because of Hispanic sampling issues.

[ Parent ]
what issues?
nt.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
All Nevada polls have problems sampling Hispanic voters...


[ Parent ]
well they did in the past
That doesn't surely mean that they still do today, by itself.

Heck, based on history, PPP had a Republican Bias and Nevada was a Republican state.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
There's no reason to think public polling in Nevada
is accurate. The hispanic sampling issues manifested in Obama 2008 and Reid 2010. I have to check about Ensign 2006.



[ Parent ]
well then
How come Sandoval/Reid was dead accurate? PPP did fine there.

It seems to be like it's a bit more of a cover line used to cover up shoddy polling.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Interestingly,
PPP nailed the GOV results.

But if you look at the combination of all polling taken in the last week, you'll see the same trend. RCP's final average was Sandoval +16.7 and he won by 11.8.  


[ Parent ]
I would agree that it's been an issue
But I can't imagine that the pollsters haven't noticed and made some sort of corrections by this point. You make a good point with Sandoval; perhaps his being Hispanic had something to do with it? Also, I think there may have been somewhat of a "shy Reid voter" factor in 2010, with Republicans not willing to admit they were going to hold their nose and vote for him.

[ Parent ]
It wasn't a factor in NV-02
Granted that's the least Hispanic district in the state, but it was 15% Hispanic at the 2000 census and has certainly gotten more diverse since then.

Live-caller polls, like Suffolk, have had less of a problem with Nevada in recent years.  


[ Parent ]
Suffolk didn't poll right before the election in 2010 (nt)


[ Parent ]
You're right; I didn't realize their last poll was in mid-October
Everyone who polled it after them had Angle up. I do remember reading afterwards that Reid claimed his internals had him up 5 all along, but we never saw a memo.

[ Parent ]
what issues?
nt.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
If you adjust PPP by 4%
for its bias that comes to +2 Obama. That is exactly what Marist had two weeks ago.

Kudos to PPP for crosstabs.  Hispanic vote for Romney is at 39% in NV. You use that Hispanic Agenda poll having Romney at 39% for dumpster lining.  


[ Parent ]
That's the "Hispanic polling problem"
IIRC, Hispanics always go more D than they poll.

Angle was winning ~35% of them in the polls, and barely got 25% in the actual election

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
I think NV could be a surprise state for Romney
Mormons are 11% of the population in NV. You could see a huge surge in Mormons turnout in this election (similar to the increase in AA turnout in 2008). Also Romney for obvious reason is polling better than McCain did 2008 among Mormons. So this could swing an extra 1% or 2% of the NV vote to Romney.

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen: Squabble erupts between Cox, Long over Turner, Long
Crossroads begins to campaign in ND
I think IJB was right when he said Heitkamp was at the peak of her campaign.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


North Dakota Elections
Did you know that the only contested primary elections in North Dakota yesterday were the GOP races for Senate and House-AL, and the Supt. of Education race? There weren't even contested primaries for governor! What a boring state!!  

I live in a county with 40% more population than the state of ND,
and we only had two contested county primaries. That seems about on-par.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
ND-AL
Mason Dixon was off by 33 points, which is a lot, even for a primary...

SC-7 D Runoff
Decision to be made Friday about whether a runoff should occur. Lol, that would leave about a week for the election. SC Dem Party is a sad state of affairs.
http://atr.rollcall.com/south-...

SC1-Charleston

How do the military members vote?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Beats me
Turned out to be a stroke of genius making that district 30% AA. AA voters comprise a majority in the Democratic primary but nominate a candidate who is unelectable in the general. Alvin Greene effect. Even with a runoff, very uphill for Brittain.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Depends on Military
as if you mean a military man stationed at the Pentagon. He/She would likely vote like any other resident of VA or MD and that would be a local polling spot.

If the military man was a naval guy on a ship he would likely vote absentee.  He would likely be registered at his home port or at his family's home depending on the situation.

If you are stationed overseas you would vote absentee and be registered as per the above situations.

Some military personal stationed in Hawaii or other high tax locales, if they live on certain bases, can claim exemptions from local taxes by voting in another state. You can be stationed at Pearl Harbor and vote in Oregon or wherever.

I believe most military personal is USA based and not overseas or Naval.  So most military are registered and vote like you and I.  


[ Parent ]
It seems like every Wednesday morning now...
We wake up and read how Democrats blew it in another district. These are the guys who'll take the House back?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
So why did NY have to change their primary?
Isn't there a deadline till when military ballots can be returned? How will the ballots reach Afghanistan and be returned in one week?

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Now that is another subject
as there is a series of laws that the GOP pushed to ensure that the military has its votes counted. That also is a very complex story and relates to the various state laws.

Alot depends on how absentee ballots are handled. Can I do this is less then a 1000 words?  Maybe?

1st in Oregon if an absentee ballot is receive by election day it is counted. The day after election it is not. So by law, and this depends on various factors, oversea military ballots for Oregon voters are mailed out about 6 weeks early. 21 days to get to Iraq or Afghanistan and 21 days to get back to Oregon. Now work backwards if it takes 6 weeks to certify primary results in Oregon (some states take that long to legally certify results) then go back another 6 weeks plus two for printing. Oregon needs 6 weeks to mail ballots, 2 weeks to print them and six weeks to certify results.  That's 14 weeks. So ending a primary in July is about as far out as oregon can be.

Now NY absentees only have to be postmarked by election day. The law gives Military ballots 10 days to arrive after election. So a military guy in Iraq needs ballots mailed in late sept or early oct to comply with NY & Federal law. If NY held a primary on 09-11-2012 could winners be certified by 09-30-2012? How long did it take Storobin to get certified? Was it 10 weeks? It is really hard to hold a primary in early September, certify the elections, print ballots and get them mailed overseas.

In New York you could have someone win a conservative primary in September but lose the GOP primary. Then on 09-20-2012 he takes a judgeship nomination and gives up conservative line so another can get it. It takes too long to print up ballots and get them mailed if people are swapping out lines three weeks after the primary ends. That's the NY situation and its common to other states.  


[ Parent ]
some states have taken efforts to reduce time
Missouri has a web site miltary overseas can get to where they can download it and print it.
That saves time actually getting it there.

Also our primaries are first Tuesday in August with the possible exception of years in which August 1st is a Tuesday.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
My Dad is retired Navy
Yup; the above is correct. Naval ships on the Pacific coast / Hawaii rotate with Asia / east coast Africa and the ones on the Atlantic coast rotate with Europe/ west coast Africa so that deployments away from home port tend to be roughly six months but can be extended when a crisis develops.

(DOD though seems to be making some changes in light of Europe not really needing naval assets any more.)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Gutsy
If I were here I'd take the high ground, push for a runoff, and use it to show how much I love democracy.

Now Brittain will use it against her as a campaign issue.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
I thought her ad the last week of the campaign
was pretty good. She isn't as bad a candidate as some are portraying, although she is unelectable in the district.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/v...

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Dem statement on SC-7
"The Democratic Party does not want to disenfranchise any voter in South Carolina and by not counting the votes for Ted Vick, you are not counting the votes for over 2,300 people. This is something the Republican Party would condone but not the Democratic Party. Every votes counts."

Hey jerk, leave us out of it. Your 1st place finisher is the one trying to stop a runoff.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


Translation
"We know Tinubu has no shot at winning in the general and Brittain has at least some shot and hey, while were at it, let's use this situation to make a gratuitous attack on Republicans even though it has nothing at all to do with them".

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
They don't think a black candidate can win so they all get behind the white candidate. If Republicans did this, they would be accused of something.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Stop the Democratic War on Women of Color!!!


[ Parent ]
lol
Stop the Democratic assault on women of color with different last names!  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Racism
Just say it.  The Democrats are engaging racial politics.  They are making the point for needing VRA to remain in place and ensure a Republican majority for years to come.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
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