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Political Roundup June 14th, 2012

by: rdelbov

Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 09:00:00 AM EDT


President

Michigan: This poll shows that the President and Romney are very close in this state. You can call it a tie or a 2 point Obama lead or a 1.5% Obama lead.

Ohio: This AP story details the coming fight for the state of Ohio. The article is quite fair and even-handed in looking at obstacles that both parties face in this key battleground state.

Florida: The Romney campaign is ramping up efforts in Florida. This long article details the plan of attack. 

Economy: This week's weak retail sales report has prompted some economists to lower GDP estimates. The new estimates are in the 1.9 to 2% range for 2nd qtr 2012. The increase in 1st time jobless claims means the job market is weakening. This can only be considered bad news for the President.

John Edwards: Former VP nominee Edwards will not face a trial again on FEC campaign abuse charges.

Senate 

Maine: DSCC Chairman Patty Murray faces the problem of whether to endorse either the Democratic party nominee in Maine or the Democrat/Independent candidate in that state. Senator Murray loves female candidates in MA, NY, MI, WI, MN, CA, NV and MO, but somehow Cynathia Dill in Maine does not appear to be woman enough for her as Angus King looks like he will get DSCC support.   

Missouri: The Contenders for Senate races this fall has mostly been set. Missouri seems to be the biggest wildcard where three GOP contenders seem to be legitmate contenders. Will it be Steelman or Akin or Brunner taking on Senator McCaskill?

Governor

Virginia: Will be there be a GOP primary for governor next year? A meeting this Friday of the State Republican Governing Board will determine that. It will either be a convention or a primary that decide the nomination between Lt Gov Bolling and AG Cuccinelli.

New York: This article details how Governor Cuomo and GOP state senators have formed an alliance that benefits both. It is a strange situation where opposites not only attract but prosper. I was going to post an article on the New York GOP Senate primary featuring Congressman Turner but why bother? I do note that any other action in New York could revolve around congressional seats and seemingly the GOP has a good chance of gaining seats.

House

There were a few less noteworthy US House races settled on Tuesday and here are two of some interest.

Maine 2: Maine Senate President Kevin Raye won the GOP nomination to take on incumbent Congressman Mike Michaud. Raye is a top tier candidate in what can only be called a difficult race. This is actually a rematch of a 2002 open seat race.

Nevada 3: This article details how House Speaker John Ocequera won the Democratic nomination to take on Congressman Joe Heck. The Speaker only won 50% of the primary vote against several political neophytes. In addition Dina Titus easily won the D nod for NV1. I suspect NV3 and NV4 will be major battlegrounds in November.

OK2: OK enough about yesterday, what about what's next? In 12 days, the Sooner State will have a primary for the seat held by the retiring Dan Boren. The GOP is favored to win this seat but as this article relates, it is unclear who gets the Republican nod. There are several Okies in this race who are proud to be from Muskogee but even that does not guarantee a win later this month.

SC7: Are we off to court in South Carolina? There seem to be two different opinions as to what to do with Ted Vick's votes. Clearly there has been a difference between casting and counting votes in election after election so it is not without precedence to not count Vick's votes. The fact that the SC runoff is set for 06-26-2012 means that unless something is done quickly the Democratic nominee for SC7 is set.

rdelbov :: Political Roundup June 14th, 2012
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who does Obama listen to?
His rich liberal backers.

Slanted article, but interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

A lot of Senate Democrats were not as willing back in 2010 to push healthcare at the time that they did.  But I suppose they look out for themselves first.

Especially with 2 of these 3 issues being heavily unpopular.

28, R, PA-07.


Not surprising
Obama has spent the bulk of his life outside the cultural mainstream of even most Democrats.  Hawaii, overseas, and academia define him.  I don't think the guy has spent an adult moment living in a suburb or rural area.  Growing up outside the 48 states impacts people (see Sarah Palin even had this issue to a point).

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
VA-Gov 2013
What does everyone think Warner's chances of running are? He's being extremely quiet about it, but I think it's close to a done deal once the presidential race is over.

R - MD-7

Non-Starter IMO
Don't see Warner running for Governor again, whole slew of reasons, not least of which is he'd be a national Dem pariah if he left his Seanate seat open.

I'm very interested in what happens on the GOP side. I believe Cooch isn't running for Governor as much as to be Romney's Attorney General. Obamacare being overthrown would certainly help with that, but also there would be numerous persons looking to find him an admin job just to avoid a pit fight between him and Bolling so I certainly think an Admin job with Romney is highly probably, Solicitor General or such if AG doesn't work out...

Marco Rubio 2016, please


[ Parent ]
The skuttlebut here in Va...
Runs heavily toward Kuccinelli running for governor. I hope he doesn't--Bolling would be a perfectly legitimate governor IMO--but I wouldn't count him out. Everything I've heard indicates that Paul Clemment--the guy who argued against Obamacare--is likely for Solicitor General. Kuccinelli for AG would be one heck of a confirmation battle.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I think he's primarily (at this point) running for Governor as a means to another end, but he could very well end up in a primary with Bolling if nothing else comes up. He's angling for something "bigger" and could probably be bought off with something short of AG, but that's not the same thing as saying his embriotic governor campaign is a bluff.

Marco Rubio 2016, please

[ Parent ]
Gerry Connolly
would most likely be appointed to it if Warner left, and while he would have an uphill battle in 2014 I wouldn't put it past him to hold the seat.

What are your other reasons? Warner's such a backbencher in the Senate - for all the promise he had in '08 of being a strong moderate-liberal voice and a policy wonk he's done nothing but keep his head down and vote the party line. I have to think he's getting seriously bored.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Connoly would get steam-rolled by McDonnell.
Connolly would have no appeal outside of Fairfax and Arlington, and McDonnell could probably eat into his Fairfax margins. Aside from the (inexplicably beloved of progressives) Tom Pariello, Connolly pretty much is their viable statewide bench though, so you're probably right in thinking he's the senate appointee.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I would think that Connolly would get sub-standard numbers in SW VA, where Warner usually outperforms Generic D.

Also, why are you so puzzled as to why progressives (hardcore liberals) love Tom Perriello? He champions liberal policies, won in a generally red district, and, no matter what else can be said of him, seems to work hard for his cause.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


[ Parent ]
His 2008 win was unimpressive...
He won by like a few hundred votes against party-switcher Virgil Good, then got crushed in 2010. Sure, he talks a good progressive game, but it's pretty easy to do that when you're a one-term wonder. Nonetheless you hear progressives talking him up for every office that comes up in Virginia.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
crushed?
why don't you look up that election result again.  I believe he outperformed the PVI substantially.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Way out performed
IIRC he outperformed the PVI of his district more than any other Democrat in the country.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Boren, Mattheson, Taylor
Shuler, McIntyre, Bright, Childers, Skelton,Moore, Edwards and too tired to continue candidates who likely did better then what he did in VA11. I count some +30 seats where the D who won in 2006 & 2008 had a more Bush 2004 seat then GC.  

[ Parent ]
Okay, let's say "soundly beaten" if that makes you feel better.
He lost by a good solid 4 points in a district that looks to be about +4 R PVI (and that's going by 2008 numbers; assuming I've actually figured the PVI correctly), and he won in 2008 by a wopping 727 votes. Clearly an electoral power-house.
Mind you, I hope progressives nominate him for every statewide office in Virginia for the next few cycles, and skip over more moderate Democrats with an actual chance at winning statewide. When you can't get Pariello, try Brian Moran instead; he's a "true" progressive, and can obviously win deep-blue-trending Virginia!!

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
you're obviously unwilling to ignore actual evidence
Tom Periello outperformed his PVI better than the more moderate Glenn Nye and in fact was one of the top performing freshman Democrats in the nation, despite his loss.

I believe only Bright and probably Minnick did better.

Perriello is similar ideologically to Tim Kaine, who was a popular VA Governor.  His nomination for 2013 Gov. would merely make the race a tossup, which is the best Democrats can ask for in a swing state.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
NJ Presidential Poll
Barack Obama won New Jersey in 2008 by 14.7 points. The RCP average is Obama +0.8. So one would expect each state to move around 6 points more Republican. Instead this poll has Obama +23. Now the 37%D/22%R, which is a lot more Democratic than the state is. If the numbers are adjusted to a more realistic breakdown, it's still Obama +18, still the wrong direction.

http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~re...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


trash, sorry
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll showed 39 percent of likely voters supporting Corzine, 36 percent for Christie and 20 percent for independent Chris Daggett.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, When's PPP Going To Do a "Redo" Question...
...in New Jersey?!

I'd love to see what a 'redo' result would look like in New Jersey now - I bet Christie would be over 50%!  


[ Parent ]
Adelson looking to give 100m to SuperPAC for Romney
If I am Obama's campaign
And Adelson gives 100 million, I'd find a way of runnning ads on it in a way that will resonate and won't derail the campaign message.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
That usually reasonates very poorly with voters
Plus there's always the chance Adelson and other big donors feel irritated and donate even more, like the Koch brothers after Obama went after them. Especially when they can donate to Crossroads GPS.

I'd rather use this to shame my own bid donors to step up and contribute more.  


[ Parent ]
The Koch Brothers better step up . . .
if they want to remain public enemies number one and two.  

[ Parent ]
I blame the Republicans for this . . .
since their candidate was the first nominee in the modern era to reject the federal funding of presidential campaigns.

Oh wait . . . . . .


[ Parent ]
Welp
I give up.  Time to hibernate.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Kaine vs Allen on the issues
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Allen is allegedly favored on the economy, budget, taxes, abortion, immigration, and foreign policy.

Kaine is allegedly favored on education and healthcare.

Interesting.

28, R, PA-07.


Advantage: Allen (nt)


[ Parent ]
yep
I still say Virginia is inherently a tilt right state today that seems to have a liking to Obama for whatever reason.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
VA
Like many southern states Virginia has a high Dem floor because of the minority population, but in VA case Obama is further padded by having 2.5 CDs worth of voters who probably profile better as Marylanders.

Still, in the fall I see Obama's numbers crumbling as he's already maxed out in NoVA & tidewater, but socially moderate Exurb voters are going to vote their pocketbook/jobs and on election day you'll see a huge drop in his vote totals in Loudoun and Prince William Counties.

Marco Rubio 2016, please


[ Parent ]
WI-Sen
Ras out with a new poll (same sample as one giving Romney a 3 pt lead I assume) showing Tommy Thompson up on Baldwin 52-36. (also Neumann up 45-43, Fitz down 43-44 and Hovde (who?) up 44-42).

Certainly like to see some other pollsters numbers before I start doing the Meposian Dance of Joy, but good (and fairly reasonable) numbers

Marco Rubio 2016, please


Link
tinyurl.com/7vI97qu

Marco Rubio 2016, please

[ Parent ]
I Suspect The Thompson Margin Is Inflated
But I can easily believe that Baldwin is stuck at about 45%. Her "ceiling" in this race may very well be about 47-48% against anyone but Neumann (and possibly Fitzgerald).

If a few more polls confirm something like that, this race moves to "Lean R"...  


[ Parent ]
Meh
I think TT's numbers are about right, 48-52 is about right. I'm surprised to see Baldwin down in the 30s and thats not very realistic, but a lot might be Dem voter disgust over the recall, they certainly bouce back when given someone to vote against in Neumann/Fitz, but I have a tough time imagining her getting through that 44-45 ceiling.

Marco Rubio 2016, please

[ Parent ]
Lots of mud slinging
Campaigns have changed a lot in Wisconsin in the last two years. Thompson hasn't run a campaign since the 90's. I doubt he'll be able to sustain a lead without a lot of hard work.

Of course, I'd hire everyone who worked for Scott Walker.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
not surprising
Heck, even PPP and Kos had Baldwin losing to everyone.

Of course, we somehow hear that turnout in Dane/Milwaukee was at 'presidential' and 'historical' proportions and that the recall electorate 'leans Republican'. Both of those cannot be true.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
WI-SEN
One consistent theme in pretty much every poll: the electability gap favouring Thompson is too wide to be ignored.

Hovde is a self-funding some dude who has been running lots of ads. Very intriguing candidate in terms of policy (from a conservative perspective), good personal background and seems skilled. Then again, that electability gap.  


[ Parent ]
i see a lot of overtones from the 2010 races
DE-Sen, CO-Sen, NV-Sen.

I don't think Hovde wins the primary though, but stranger things have happened

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Large field is key
If it becomes Thompson vs a "true" conservative then TT might be in trouble, but if the field remains 4-5 Thompson will cruise.

This will be a huge pickup for the GOP, but a disaster for Senate Caucus meetings. He's an ass.

Marco Rubio 2016, please


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I tend to agree
Neumann, Hovde and Fitzgerald (who remains on the ballot) will all compete for the ideologically committed conservative voters and activists. If one of them cannibalizes the others, then Thompson would probably lose. At this point that seems like a rather unlikely scenario though.  

[ Parent ]
Ron Rind
Wonder if he regrets dropping out now. He perhaps could have made a race of this in the primary.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
No way
The WI D base is a bunch of flaming progressives with some AAs and Kind is a DINO to them.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
i think that's going a bit far
Dane County cast 15% of the total Democratic vote in recent elections (~150k out of 1 million). Milwaukee cast 20%. Kind would probably beat Baldwin even in places like Sauk County that border Dane as the were part of Kind's district in the 1990s.

Uphill climb, sure, and he would have been drenched in fundraising.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Dane County in 2010
Feingold: 69.5%
Baldwin: 66.5%

Green County:
Feingold: 53%
Baldwin: 51%

Columbia County:
Feingold: 49%
Baldwin: 47%

At a guess that 2-3% would be bigger through the rest of the state.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Of course she underperforms
That's why she will likely lose. But an overwhelming majority of WI Ds are flaming progressives. Hence, the huge tensions and eruptions when conservatives took over the state completely.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Likely R
Thompson's winning margin probably only winds up 53-46, but I'd be downright stunned if Baldwin emerged victorious. How does Walker defeat Barrett and Thompson not prevail over Baldwin? I would argue Thompson's a stronger general election candidate than Walker, with Baldwin more anemic than Barrett.

If Neumann wins the primary and Wisconsin looks Likely D for Obama, then we'll talk.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Not buying it
That's an absolutely ridiculous Thompson/Baldwin margin.  Not going to happen.

Does anyone pay to see Rasmussen's internals?  I'd love to see this one.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be so sure
Thompson was winning Dane and Milwaukee counties back in the 90's.  He won the 2nd district by over 60% in 94 and won statewide with 67%.   He won four Governor's races.  I absolutely do not like the guy personally, but there's no denying he's absurdly popular in Wisconsin. Yes things have changed since then but for the most part he still appeals.

He's from the rural third and is especially popular in Western WI.  That is critical because there's absolutely no way for a Democrat to win statewide without winning the seventh and third.  I'd be shocked if Thompson lost any CD other than the second and fourth.

Baldwin on the other hand, is a horrible candidate for WI.  Choosing her to run was just plain idiotic.  She has absolutely zero appeal anywhere outside Madison and a few small college towns like Steven's Point and La Crosse. Even in the second, multiple analyses have shown that she has underperformed; especially in the non-Dane portion of the district.  She will be bulldozed by Thompson in the outstate and will have smaller than usual D margins in places like Janesville and Kenosha.

Safe R with Thompson vs. Baldwin.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
It's not Safe R
with Obama winning the state, that's absolutely ridiculous. Thompson might be popular, but its still Wisconsin.

Yes, I have paid for Rasmussen's internals in the past, but I don't anymore, because they were really a sight to see...


[ Parent ]
"It's still Wisconsin"
Walker: + 171000 votes.
That is all  

[ Parent ]
Um,
Obama > Barrett.

[ Parent ]
Barrett>Baldwin and Obama>>>Baldwin though
PPP has had Baldwin consistently under-performing Barrett by 2-3 percentage points. And they got Barrett wrong by 4 points. Good chance the gap is in high single digits right now.

Even if Obama is winning the state by 5-7.5%, I'd still rate Thompson as a comfortable favourite.  


[ Parent ]
Yes, he is a favorite
But it's not Safe R.

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin race
I think it's foolish to assume Tammy Baldwin can't win because she's a far left extremist. (How does that sound? I figure they're always calling us far right extremists.) This is the state that elected Russ Feingold.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Lesbian as well, though
Feingold's straight.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Actually, that's precisely the reason she can't win
Russ Feingold may seem like a liberal extremist to you, but he also had the honesty and principled feeling to him which Wisconsin voters really liked (for a while, it seems). Baldwin just seems light a straight liberal, with nothing much else going for her.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
While they might vote similarly, Baldwin and Feingold share very little in common.  One fits the state very well, visited every county in the state annually, could connect with rural voters, and still lost to a political newbie.  The other has absolutely no way to relate to rural voters, is a fish out of water anywhere in her own state north of Sun Prairie, and will in all likelihood be running against a four term governor.  She'll lose badly.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Obama is not "winning" the state
he only has a slight edge at this point.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Marquette University, who got the GOV recall exactly right
had him at Obama +8. I hate to use WAA for anything other than an example of bad polling, but they have him at Obama +5. That's not a huge edge, but a modest one.

[ Parent ]
as far as 'it's still Wisconsin'
Between Ryan, Walker, Priebus, Wisconsin now has a lot of really big names in the national GOP. And the state party is in the top 5 for sure, along with Texas and Florida.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Thompson is about as likely to lose to Baldwin
as Klobuchar, Cantwell, or Casey Jr. are to lose.

I'll call all four races safe.

We're talking about a four term governor running against a congresswoman who represents a dark blue district and has never been challenged seriously outside of her first race.  It's a Republican who has won Dane county once and Milwaukee County three times (including 64.45% in Milwaukee Co. in 94) against an untested Democrat who routinely under performs statewide Democrats by 2 to 5% in the non-Dane portion of her district.

I see absolutely no path to victory for Baldwin just as I see no path to victory for Bills, Smith, or Baumgartner.  Hence I'm calling it safe as long as Thompson wins the primary. (personally I hope he doesn't because I can't stand him and I think each of the other three have a somewhat decent chance of winning as well)

Saint Paul (MN-4)  


[ Parent ]
I'll just leave it at this
I've never heard of a Senate race being called Safe (pre-Labor Day, mind you), in a state where the opposite party's candidate is probably going to win the presidential election by about ~5 points.

[ Parent ]
Evan Bayh 2004
and you know these governors can really be popular across party lines. Of course Evan was running as an incumbent but he had a bigger tailwind then Thompson in WI.


[ Parent ]
Manchin is safe
And Romney will win WV by a hell of a lot more than Obama will win Wisconsin (if he wins it at all).

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Susan Collins and Tim Johnson in 2008
If you're talking about an open seat, though, I can't think of a such a situation. Maybe Mark Warner in 2008. I know Obama won VA, but the Presidential race was considered competitive while the Senate race wasn't. Warner ran 12 points ahead of Obama, and I could see Thompson running as many as 10 points ahead of Romney.

I don't think Thompson/Baldwin is anywhere near Safe R at this point, but he would start with a lead of no less than 5 if he wins the primary.


[ Parent ]
Chuck Robb in 1988?
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Morning Thoughts
ME-Sen: I'm thinking that the DSCC may just not endorse either candidate.

VA-Gov: I'm pretty sure that there will be a primary, unless Bolling's people control the board, and then they might force a convention.

ME-02: This district is almost Safe D with Michaud. We have other, better opportunities to put resources iinto if we want to go on offense.

OK-07: Faught sounds strong, and I'll go ahead and say that I would want him, though the others look acceptable.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


OK-2
Think I marginally prefer Mullin, as he seems to be running the most aggressive campaign. He also seems like future statewide material (though that's not a real concern in OK).

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
VA-Gov
you have it backwards, Bolling wants a primary.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I thought that Bolling would be more popular with insiders
whoinsiders who could show up at the convention and nominate him. To my mind, Cuccinelli would want a primary because he has a lot of name recognition and popularity with GOP primary voters.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Cooch would probably be the favorite in both


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Virginia Conventions
are activist-dominated, not insider-dominated. A convention is how Jim Gilmore almost lost the 2008 senate nomination to Bob Marshall.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The DSCC will back King
That much is fairly obvious. They obviously want to get 50, and with the margin so close, King's obviously their best chance in this state. They don't want a repeat of Governor 2010.

The Republicans running in OK-02 actually perform at relatively different levels against the Democrat. Here's what I'll say about Faught - He's brought up "English as the official language" bills in the state legislature and a lot of the Native Americans here like the Cherokee and Creek were not happy with that. I'd imagine they'd turn out in higher numbers with Faught as the Republican nominee, as he's not well-liked among them.  


[ Parent ]
If they're smart they won't back King
they'll support Dill with kind words and no money. At the end of the day the biggest thing King has going for him is that he's truly viewed as nonpartisan. If Democrats pierce that veneer they'll just cause Republican King supporters to come home to Summers. Murray needs to make it clear that Dill is the Democrat and King isn't if she really wants King Angus to have an unimpeded coronation.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Agreed
One of the draws of an independent candidate is that he's independent. He votes how he wants, not the way the party wants. If they think he's a Democrat he'll not only lose his Republican support, but some of his independent support.

It's tough to argue that the independent candidate cost the Democrat the Maine governorship. In September Cutler was polling in the low teens and LePage was beating her in polls, sometimes handily. In the end Mitchell finished 19 points behind LaPage

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
King is way ahead right now around 56-29-15.
Maine does not generally have close elections with popular figures. If Maine likes you, you will crush a serious opponent 2-1. If they don't, well things won't save you.

Everyone here is misreading the state by assuming there is some sort of Republican base here, which there isn't. Longley got about 24% against King in 1998, and most polls have King well over 50%. Attacking King in Maine will backfire massively, and even the impression that the GOP is targeting him will damage Summers.

The only one who can defeat King is King. If King shuts up and smiles he will crush Summers in the area of 55-29-16. If on the other hand he gives the impression he is senile old fart out of touch with the times, as he did when he called a press conference two months ago to denounce a parody twitter account that was mocking him, he might have serious problems.

In that event however, the Maine electorate will likely re-calibrate. Remember, Mitchell was in second until basically 10 days out. LePage won because he snuck into that vital period when Democrats were transitioning in preference, and had it not been for early voting almost certainly would have lost.

This idea that somehow the GOP can consolidate within 10% of King without Democrats noticing is bunk. A strong King almost implies he will be maintain appeal to the Barbara Merrill 2006-esque voters who a Republican needs to get much above 35%. The solid non-Snowe, non-Collins GOP base in Maine for a federal race is well under 40%. Woodcock, admittedly a bad candidate, but one no worse than LePage, got only 29% in 2006 running for Governor, and Michuad probably would have won this by mid-double digits.

The GOP will play here, but to the same extent, and with about the same expectations as they will play in New Jersey. Absent a King implosion they have zero shot.

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics


[ Parent ]
I have no illusions
that Summers will get any more than 30% in this race. I do think 15 is a little low for Dill though as she's probably been the most aggressive campaigner so far. I'm thinking 50K-30S-20D as I have been for some time.

What I'm saying is that the way for Republicans to have an opening is for Democrats to give King a giant bear-hug. Republicans won't win by attacking King for not being independent enough, but Democrats can hurt him by embracing him too closely. The scenario I'm envisioning is that Patty Murray and a few other prominent Ds issue either veiled or outright endorsements of King. That will cause bleed of the 5-10% or so of LePage voters that are probably solidly in King's camp now, and also t* off Dill and prompt her to hit harder from the left.

Absent that, Very Likely/Almost Safe I. NJ (or AZ or PA for that matter) is not a bad comparison.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Patty Murray
can neutralize this issue with 12 words:

The DSCC is supporting Cynthia Dill, the only Democrat in this race.

That statement (and nothing else) is all I'd suggest that Democrats do here.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
That's all King needs
And if he's unfortunate enough to have Patty Murray embrace him, he needs to be firm:

While I appreciate Democratic support, make no mistake, I'm not a Democrat.  Patty Murray and Harry Reid are sorely mistaken if this endorsement is an enticement for me to join their caucus or vote Democratic. I stand independent and my only loyalty is to the people of Maine.  

As long as King stays independent, I don't see how he loses. If Maine independents see him as a sell out they could abandon him.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I think the operative comparison is MN Gov in 2002
It started out Likely I(though King is far stronger than Penny). If and when Penny imploded, it was going to become likely R, because the types of voters Penny would maintain at sub-20% would mostly be voters Democrats needed to win statewide. And the same factors that led Penny to fall from say 48% to 30% were likely to drag him down to below 20%.

Hence any Democratic strategy had to premised not simply on Penny collapsing but Penny collapsing at the right time with the election taking place with him on the way down but before he hit rock bottom.

The same dynamics apply in Maine. Summers victory involves a 39-31-30 or a 40-35-25 race, but those numbers are not stable and can only remain in that area for a short period. One or the other of Dill or King will remain in the teens or below, and if it ends up being King, that 15% or so of the vote will come from the sort of voters a Republican wants statewide.

So any Superpac/NRSC strategy, as fun as it is to poke Dill now, needs to be late. If by some chance they were to blow King out out of viability now and generate a two-man race, its unclear they could win that, as with both major party candidates Southern oriented, King's sticky support is likely to be in Blue Collar areas of northern Maine. Portland will vote for whoever promises to not caucus with McConnell, which mean that vote is likely to switch wholesale, albeit over two weeks.

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics


[ Parent ]
We're talking past each other
but we do largely agree. Absent a flukey scenario I don't see any path to a Summers victory. But the path I do see involves mainstream Democrats openly embracing King. The Dem establishment can close that off by simply offering moral (*not physical*) support to Dill, which will show up in news stories as "Democrats supporting their nominee" and help King maintain the independence that is his most valuable asset.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Summers
If Collins and Snowe endorse and campaign for him, what's the impact?

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Highly Doubtful
Snowe didn't really do much of anything for he preferred candidate, I can't see her going out of the way in an uphill battle.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
"Republicans could actually add seats"
http://www.centerforpolitics.o...

Moving AZ-2 to the leans column leaves only 14 toss-ups among the 435 seats being contested in the fall. In total, the Crystal Ball rates 235 seats safe, likely or leaning for the Republicans, and rates 186 safe, likely or leaning for the Democrats. Split the toss-ups seven to seven, and one is left with 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats in the House: exactly the margin Republicans had to start this Congress.

Needless to say, there is no indication at this point that the Democrats can net the 25 seats that would give them a House majority; in fact, if Mitt Romney wins the presidency, Republicans could actually add seats to their already substantial caucus.

Emphasis his.

Sabato is the first one to actually look at his own ratings instead of giving out the conventional wisdom. Based on his ratings it'd be a D+2. Everyone keeps waiting for the ball to roll toward the Democrats but none of these see  a reason to move seats that way.

Stu Rothenberg has 200 safe Republican seats and they all have at least 212 safe/likely Republican seats.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Sabato and adding seats
Sabato always seems the most right-leaning of the Big Three (Big Four if you count Nate Silver) electoral prognosticators, but that's just my impression.

I will say that if Romney wins and the GOP picks up a few House seats, it would seem like a redux of 1976 to me. A party scores a huge win in a midterm (Watergate wave in 1974), then picks up the presidency and adds a few net seats two years later.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


[ Parent ]
Difference
In 1976 Democrats were over their era average by 35 seats. So Carter gaining 1 was a big landslide but their caucus was bloated. Hence they lost 50 seats in the next two cycles.

The Republican era average has been 228 seats. With redistricting, however, it should be 238-240. If Republicans gain 5 seats they won't be nearly as much over their historical average as the Democrats were in 1976.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Boehner makes strong argument
We need this in campaign commercials.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

But please with someone more animated.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


They Could Do an Animated Version of Boehner! ;) (nt)


[ Parent ]
MI poll
Someone on DKE pointed out something interesting about the new MI poll.  According to the polling firm:

Our study skewed significantly higher with voter cluster of persons over the age of 51. This sampling was 83.03% of all polling study respondents.

In 2004, the CNN exit poll showed 21% of voters were 18-29.  This poll has voters 18-30 making up only 3.73% of the vote.  So young voters are very underrepresented in the poll.  


The poll methodology stinks
Same with their LV screen.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
It's not the worst
Their sample is randomly drawn from a list of voters who vote ~70% of the time, and then they winnow it down further by asking only people who are fairly certain they'll vote in November.

Obviously, weighting can do a small amount to overcome the bias toward older respondents (not enough, though). However, they also said the sample skewed a fair bit more female than the electorate.

I think the oldness factor could be important, but I'm not sure in which way. Are old voters Romney voters right now? Or is Mediscare working to bring them closer to Obama? I don't recall any breakdowns recently.


[ Parent ]
So if we switch out
older republicans and replace them with younger republicans we get different results? How about replacing older democrats with younger democrats?

Funny I am usually the one arguing crosstabs.  Now if you want to argue crosstabs how about 22% R for NJ?


[ Parent ]
Age
There are voting differences among age groups.  If the poll showed a big Obama lead and people 18-30 making up 83% of voters, I'm sure many on RRH would be pointing it out.  

[ Parent ]
Age can make
an impact in polls but not like race or party ID. There is little difference between young and old republicans. Ditto for young and old AA voters. Among indies and white democrats the difference between age groups can be modest but not overwhelming.  So age unto itself if you have the R-D-I breakdowns plus racial breakdowns in order it does not matter all that much.  

[ Parent ]
Age on Democrats and Republicans doesn't matter much
In most states a 24 year old Democrat votes the same as a 64 year old Democrat.  If Obama, or Stabenow, wins Democrats 85%-8% in the poll you don't need to look at age. If it's 71%-20%, there might be an issue.

Age for independents, however, can make a big difference.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Ok, here's a good one
The CfG spending scorecard came out today. It's pretty bizzare; for Democrats, the best was Matheson. But he was just 1% ahead of their #2. Try and guess this rep without looking it up... I bet nobody gets it, because it's seriously bonkers.

R - MD-7

Kucinich?


Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
Very close
he was actually #3. #2 was Bobby Rush. Weird.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Kucinich was 3rd
Only 2% below Matheson.

I was surprised by #2 and #3. Also by the very low ratings of some Republicans.  


[ Parent ]
Interesting
The Democrats arguably are a more partisan caucus when it comes to spending.  You have a good distribution of Republicans from the 40s to 100.  On the Democratic side, you have a few in the 30s and 40s then the bulk are under 20%.  Highlights how hard its going to be to negotiate spending deals with the hyper-liberal Democratic caucus.

Pat Toomey only got a 97%.  Nice to see them keeping their former boss honest.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Not sure what list you are looking at
Boren is the top Democrat followed by Matheson and McIntyre.  Some of the progressives are quite high on that list relatively speaking though.  It really shows there are two breeds of conservaDems: Boren and Holden.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Ah
I was looking at their 2011 overall rankings.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
voter fraud in Racine?
http://www.maciverinstitute.co...

According to a source familiar with the allegations who wishes to remain anonymous, multiple voter registration forms were discovered, including mostly-blank forms that had been pre-certified by an election official

28, R, PA-07.


Lehman overperformed in Racine proper
More than in the rest of the county.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
So Dems Stole The WI St. SEN Recall Election?
Gosh, I never would have seen that coming...  

[ Parent ]
not saying that yet
But same-day registration needs to be looked at in 2013.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
yay, assertions without evidence!
my favorite.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Chris Collins
Raised bupkes, but gave himself 250k. Doesn't seem like he's fundraising.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Buerkle 265k Q
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Cook saying Republicans could pick up House seats too
Dave Wasserman‏@Redistrict
New @CookPolitical ($) June House Outlook: why we're now forecasting a minimal shift b/t GOP +2 and Dems +8:  

SC1-Charleston

More from him
How steep is landscape for Ds? Even if they won every Solid/Likely/Lean D seat & all 24 Toss Ups, they'd still need 13/18 Lean R seats

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
AZ-2; Jesse Kelly won't run!!!
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

To the surprise of no one


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
You never know what is going in someone's mind
Though it may not be surprising news, it is quite big, as Martha McSally can campaign against Barber for 4.5 months.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
She likely is the underdog in any case


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Might get a fresh hearing
Never figured out why Gabby Giffords's last opponent was supposed to win her vacant seat.  Seems you'd want to run someone who never spoke ill of the woman to run under those circumstances  

[ Parent ]
agreed
but Kelly would have been underdog in a 3rd rematch as well considering the new district is more D less R.

Lean D would be my own rating for this seat as well. Subject to review in a couple months.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Agree
=There would be absolutely no point to running Kelly for a third time. With McSally we'll at least have a shot, although I'd be surprised if Barber lost to anyone in the fall. I wonder if the plan is for him step aside in 2014 and let Giffords run again.

[ Parent ]
That's Probably an Understatement (nt)


[ Parent ]
Arizona Congressional Map Lawsuit:
http://www.dcourier.com/main.a...

Not sure if this was covered already.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY


Looks like a longshot
on the commission being unconstitutional argument.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
BP Linked To an Article The Other Day...
...that described a couple of lawsuits filed back in April. The April lawsuits seem like they have a better shot - the basis of those was that commission ignored its own criteria (which it did). Hopefully, those successfully get the lines tossed for 2014.

I agree that the suit linked to above has no chance IMO.  


[ Parent ]
Agreed 100%


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: first Donnelly spot
$250K buy: Link

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


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