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Political Roundup for November 21, 2012

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:27:59 AM EST


We have a short roundup today as the political world seems to be drifting into holiday hibernation mode for now.

Iowa Straw Poll: Iowa Governor Terry Branstad says the Iowa straw poll has outlived its usefulness and should be eliminated.  Glad to see Branstad stand up for common sense in the face of the populace of his state which will reach out and cling to any institution that brings it attention.

Jackson Jr.: Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. has scrapped plans to hold a conference call with staffers to discuss his future.  Jackson has been out of contact from his staff for months due to his alleged treatment at the Mayo Clinic.  He has also been rumored to be under Federal investigation.

MA-Sen: With the rumors of John Kerry heading to the Cabinet swirling, Democrats are searching for his potential replacement.  Obviously they don't want a candidate who does not like shaking hands outside Fenway Park in the cold.

The Conventions: It appears both parties might opt for earlier conventions in 2016 as a means of filling the dead air between the end of the primaries and Labor Day better.

Allen West: How did Allen West lose even though he spent $17 million on his reelection campaign?  It sounds like his style in a moderate district played a part in it.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for November 21, 2012
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Political Roundup for November 21, 2012 | 63 comments
San Francisco has banned nudity
Exceptions will be allowed for certain street fairs and events.

Facepalm.

26, R, PA-01.



lol
Only San Francisco would need to pass a law outlawing this.  In most places, these people would be good taser targets.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
I'm amazed they were able to
Public nudity is like a cultural thing in the Castro, and they usually have enough clout to veto anything like this.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
many states & cities have some nudity restrictions
But the state laws only tend to mandate the genitals be covered in public places;
the city ordnance often require somewhat more coverage to avoid being an exact duplicate of their state law (again in public places) but don't tend to have exceptions built into them.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has three offenses.  Indecent exposure (18 Pa.C.S.A. § 3127) is the genital related offense, which is the gential related offense and is a first or second degree misdemeanor depending on who sees it.  Open lewdness (18 Pa.C.S.A. § 5901) is the broader offensive and is a third degree misdemeanor.  Arguably Disorderly Conduct (18 Pa.C.S.A. § 5503) also applies, but that is a third degree misdeameanor or a summary offense.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
PA Corruption Update: State Supreme Court justice and Philly Traffic Court
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

You cannot make this stuff up.  A State Supreme Court justice being featured in a federal investigation into traffic ticket fixing.

27, Republican, PA-6

NJ-Gov
Christie job approval at 67% with Registered Voters.

http://www.politickernj.com/61...

More popular than God?
With those numbers, one must wonder if Christie is the most popular thing ever in New Jersey?  I am not sure God gets those numbers.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Christie's Popularity
Not only does God probably not get those numbers in New Jersey, I'm pretty sure New Jersey doesn't get those numbers in New Jersey.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Kean was more popular
In 1985, dude won Newark, JC, Camden...every town and city but 3.  Over 70% of the vote.  Just remarkable.
[ Parent ]
by the way, any guesses...
...on Kean percent of the African-American vote in 1985?  I know the number, and it's pretty remarkable.
[ Parent ]
40%
?

Zero Dark Thirty for Best Picture!
[ Parent ]
58%-62%
actually
[ Parent ]
No way
I don't believe that. He only got 2/3 or so of the vote. Who was voting for his opponent?

Source?

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Source
NYTimes, 1989.  Though they don't have him winning Camden and Newark.  I'll have to dig out my NJ Elections data from storage to confirm that.

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/09...

Steve Adubato says "Just under 60%" which is where I got my range.

http://www.caucusnj.org/adubat...

So two sources seemed adequate.

[ Parent ]
Amazing stat
I vaguely recall that Kean lost only 3 municipalities as well.

I know Roosevelt in Monmouth was one (where all the commies lived...the real ones).  Could Victory Gardens be the other?  

35, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
Audobon Park and Chesilhurst
If I'm not mistaken.  Roosevelt (Jersey Homesteads) makes sense because I beleive Shapiro was the first Jewish nominee for Governor so there was likely some pride involved.

[ Parent ]
Ah
So the blacks voted against the Jew.  Makes sense.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
That made me laugh
good one.

35, Republican, NJ-11  
[ Parent ]
Now I have to
go on Wikipedia and see what is up with those municipalities.  At least we can explain Roosevelt.

35, Republican, NJ-11  
[ Parent ]
Chesilhurst
According to wiki

New Jersey Monthly magazine ranked Chesilhurst last among the towns rated in its 2008 rankings of "Best Places to Live" in New Jersey (placing at # 566).[14]

More..

PoliticsAs of March 23, 2011, there were a total of 1,156 registered voters in Chesilhurst, of which 673 (58.2%) were registered as Democrats, 79 (6.8%) were registered as Republicans and 404 (34.9%) were registered as Unaffiliated. There were no voters registered to other parties.[42]

In the 2008 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama received 82.8% of the vote here (657 cast), ahead of Republican John McCain, who received around 14.2% (113 votes), with 793 ballots cast among the borough's 1,241 registered voters, for a turnout of 63.9%.[43] In the 2004 presidential election, Democrat John Kerry received 77.4% of the vote here (518 ballots cast), outpolling Republican George W. Bush, who received around 19.4% (130 votes), with 669 ballots cast among the borough's 1,038 registered voters, for a turnout percentage of 64.5.[44]

In the 2009 gubernatorial election, Democrat Jon Corzine received 71.4% of the vote here (314 ballots cast), ahead of both Republican Chris Christie with 23.2% (102 votes) and Independent Chris Daggett with 2.7% (12 votes), with 440 ballots cast among the borough's 1,161 registered voters, yielding a 37.9% turnout.[45]



35, Republican, NJ-11  

[ Parent ]
The big question I have is could he put NJ in play if he were the presidential nominee?


28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Bounces fade
And these approval numbers will fade by 2016 and probably by the the end of next year.
[ Parent ]
The circle-the-wagons effect
When disasters happen, the population will rally behind their leaders if they are doing a decent to good job. Remember, Bush's approval rating was north of 90% in mid-september 2001. I believe that Christie's approval among about 50% of the state was strong before Sandy, so I don't see his approval falling through the floor next year, but he certainly won't keep up approval ratings near 70 for the next year or more.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
I think he could
A lot of governors win statewide as governors and senators but could never carry their state in a Presidential election (think Romney, Pawlenty or Gore), but I think Christie is different. I think he would win it, albeit closely. At some point, the people there will vote for established competence and results over ideology.
[ Parent ]
Another poll
Chris Christie approval is at 77% in new polling conducted for New Jersey GOP.

All the kvetchers are whiny losers from the Mitt campaign and their friends.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov: Cory Booker causes a riot
http://www.nj.com/essex/index....

27, Republican, PA-6
Riot?
That's just how they elect City Councilmen in Newark!
[ Parent ]
Awesome -- Booker's stock is plummeting
With the left.

The Bain capital comments, the hostage video, and now this.

"After the vote, residents stood chanting 'Cory's gotta go!' as officials shouted over the confusion."

Note that it was the local SEIU President who started the riot to oppose Booker's (legally authorizede) tie-breaking vote on the Council.

Born: CA-22 (Nunes); Just Left: CA-12 (Pelosi); Now: CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Between this and today's poll
there is absolutely no way Booker challenges Christie, no matter how much pressure he gets from the DGA.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
This is worth the listen
Adam Beam‏@adambeam from Nov. 5

State Sen. Robert Ford (D-Charleston) just sent this out in a mass email http://bit.ly/SomNQ0  #sctweets
 

SC1-Charleston

GA-Sen; Handel is considering
http://www.peachpundit.com/201...

I agree that the Komen/PP controversy will help her one weakness, which were social issues against Deal.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Amedore ahead by 117 votes as counting continues
In key NY SD46 Republican Amedore leads by 117 votes as Albany County and part of Greene County have been counted.Percentage-wise, Amedore appears to be doing better with absentees than he performed on election day.  If this trend continues it will be good news for him.  He should do well in the remainder of Greene County and in Montgomery and Schenectady Counties as well. However, before you conclude the Reps will control the NY State Senate a word of caution.  Ulster County hasn't been counted yet and it is a "pit of horror" for Republicans(Amedore got 39% there).  It is still possible that Dem Tkacyzk could get enough votes to overcome Amedore's lead or come close enough to bring contested ballots in play. A judge has ordered a speed up in counting and all ballots are supposed to be counted by Saturday now; Ulster results will likely be last.  
Why is Rick Synder giving Detroit cash?
http://articles.chicagotribune...

The state of Michigan and its biggest city, Detroit,
announced a deal last week that includes several milestones the city must achieve in the next month to receive the $10 million by Tuesday and another $20 million by Dec. 14.

The setback leaves the city at risk of running out of cash
by the end of December if it does not meet those goals.

Our Republican governors need to stop giving so much cash to these people, especially with public act 4 gone.

26, R, PA-01.



Fear not
The city council rejected the deal because they didn't agree with the choice of law firm (I guess Miller Canfield isn't...Detroit enough...or something?).

Nothing short of bankruptcy will save this city now. The Emergency Manager law was its last hope.

[ Parent ]
Democratic MI Supreme Court Justice in real estate fraud probe
http://www.detroitnews.com/art...

Diane Hathaway still will not resign, despite the fact that the Obama Justice Department alleges some pretty serious fraud allegations against her.

If she does step down, Gov. Snyder will be able to appoint a replacement that will serve until the 2014 election, at which point they can run for a full term. I worry that Snyder may actually not appoint a conservative if this happens though. I don't want another Elizabeth Weaver on the court.

I am really enjoying this story.
Snyder had better nominate a conservative, or his choice will get knocked out at the next state convention.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton
[ Parent ]
Rick Michigan did pick Zahra
I'm not a Rick Snyder fan at ALL, but one of the few things he did that I like was pick Zahra to replace Corrigan. If he appoints a Weaver type, I'll lead the charge against that pick if I have to run myself to do so if there's no other recourse. (I have the Irish last name down). Personally, I'd pick O'Brien.

Hathaway is a disaster. Her daughter isn't much better. She ran for Probate Judge in Oakland despite not ever trying a case. She lost to Kate Ryan (Same family) who's an excellent and experienced attorney who luckily could match the last name recognition. She then moved back to Wayne County, ran and won.


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
I take that back. Snyder should pick Dan Ryan if he wants it
Best judge in the entire state.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
I wonder
if Corrigan asked that Zahra be picked in exchange for stepping down.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton
[ Parent ]
Iowa Straw Poll
It has outlived its usefulness. If Branstad is calling for its abolishment, then he's not the only mover or shaker in the IAGOP who feels the same way.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Iowa straw poll cost Pawlenty the Presidency
If there was no Iowa straw poll Pawlenty would not have dropped out. If he didnt drop out he could have had his turn as the GOP primary's "Not Romney". If he got that chance Pawlenty could have been the GOP nominee. If Pawlenty was the GOP nominee Obama couldnt use Bain Capital class warfare against him and Pawlenty might be the President-elect now. So maybe Branstad is wight and its time for the Iowa Straw poll to go.
[ Parent ]
That is a TON of "ifs"


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
doubtful
Even if Iowa didn't have a straw poll on that date and Pawlenty was still a candidate Rick Perry joining the race would still have moved him into the #1 spot.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Pawlenty's backup plan was the Florida Straw poll
Which Herman Cain ultimately won.

http://www.foxnews.com/politic...

Remember that Pawlenty was hemorrhaging funds after blowing the "Obamneycare" debate and was trying to resuscitate his fundraising operation. Not losing Iowa wouldn't have done that. He needed to make a play somewhere, and Ames was the play. If it hadn't been Ames he probably would have lost to Perry or Cain in Florida.

Born: CA-22 (Nunes); Just Left: CA-12 (Pelosi); Now: CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
TPaw made 2 strategic errors
1. He ran a high burn "hare" campaign when he needed to play "tortoise" and await the burn out of flashier but less electable candidates
2. He thought he was a "conservative" alternative but in the post Tea Party era he had to run as a "mainstream Republican"  
[ Parent ]
I think TPaw's biggest mistake was calling it quits too soon
Yes he made a mistake with is high burn rate "big campaign" but what he needed to do after the Iowa Straw Poll was retool and go low budget, not to drop out. This is what McCain did when his campaign ran into trouble in 2007. If Tpaw decided to stick around he could have had his chance. Yes he would have had to fire almost all his staff and but he could always hire them back if his campaign caught fire later.
[ Parent ]
Pawlenty should have stayed in
Pawlenty could have been a stronger alternative to Romney than Santorum in the end. He's as social conservative, but doesn't have foot-in-mouth disease. He's just boring. Boring can be good if used right.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
L.A. union worker told members to put fake names on voter petition
http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...

A spokeswoman with the city clerk's election division said it is illegal to sign a false name to a ballot petition. She did not immediately know what penalties could be imposed.

Kim's admonishment is "totally out of line,'' said one union executive, who spoke on condition he not to be identified because it's a personnel issue.

"Paul misspoke and we're going to rectify that,'' said the official. "It's a nonissue and Richard Riordan is just trying to find a way to discredit us."

Don't you love unions? The guy encouraging people to break the law shouldn't have been admonished, writing an email with a very clear meaning is "misspeaking" and really it's Riordan out to discredit the unions.

In California there are two classes of people, those that belong to government unions who have good salaries, great benefits, big pensions, and control government and those that don't.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

IL-2
Brother tells Chicago Tribune that US Rep Jesse Jackson Jr will announce resignation

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Link
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Already FP'd.
move the discussion there.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
I am speechless right now (Israel thread)
I've been following politics for years and never encountered the kind of rage and anger I see this moment, directed at the government for folding against Hamas. I don't want to make predictions right now and I hope everything will settle down but this so called (one sided) ceasefire between Hamas and Israel could be a game changer in the Israeli elections and cost Likud the government.
Definitely stupid on his part
Not that he didn't crush Hamas infrastructure and killed their number 1, the people just want much more and no "surgical" strikes.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Look at his facebook page
literally thousands of people are writing anything between "you lost my vote" and "hopefully a missile will fall on your house". As I've said, as a political observer this is something I've never encountered, I am truly shocked.
[ Parent ]
The thing is
Bennett definitely gained a few seats tonight, but where do the others go? Lapid is trying to attack on this though, but rightists don't trust him. Even Mofaz is attacking him over this.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I don't know what to tell you
Time will tell, let's wait a few days. You know what "tamut, ya'kelev" means in Hebrew? you think there's any chance someone will write it on Leon Panetta fb page like people write on Baraks?
[ Parent ]
WA-1; does Rob Mckenna live in this district?
I would think he would be a great fit.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
No
McKenna lives in Bellevue, which is in WA-09.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Haha
McKenna was the Washington State AG for 8 years and just ran for governor. He'd have no interest in being one of 435.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.
[ Parent ]
Does he have better options politically?
A rematch in four years ala Dino Rossi? Or taking Murray on?

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
You assume he wants to run for office
Often after a politician loses they want to just slip back into private life.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
That's why I said politically
Obviously, the private sector can be very lucrative for him.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for November 21, 2012 | 63 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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