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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


RRH/PMI LA-3 Poll: Boustany 51 Landry 33

by: shamlet

Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 00:00:00 AM EST


For the benefit of new and less-frequent readers, the poll will stay at the top of the homepage this week. To obtain a PDF format press release of this poll, please e-mail redracinghorses at yahoo dot com with the subject "Poll PDF".

Five days before the final House race of 2012, an IVR poll of 600 likely voters in Louisiana's third district shows Rep. Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) with a commanding lead of 51-33 over fellow Rep. Jeff Landry (R-New Iberia), with 16% undecided. The survey was conducted November 27-29 by PMI Inc. of Marianna, Fla., with survey design and data analysis by Red Racing Horses. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5%.

Full results over the fold...

shamlet :: RRH/PMI LA-3 Poll: Boustany 51 Landry 33
Methodology:

Survey participants were selected from a list prepared by RRH; participants consist of third district voters who voted in the October 2011 gubernatorial election. This restriction served as a preliminary screen for high-propensity voters most likely to turn out in a runoff scenario. The survey consisted of 7 questions designed by RRH and PMI. Respondents who did not complete the survey, or indicated a disinclination to vote on Dec. 8 were not included in the results; this action reduced the number of surveys from 901 to 600. Compared to the total results, this action had the effect of lowering the undecided percentage without significantly changing the relative positions of Landry or Boustany. The only weighting was for age; all other demographic values were found to be in what RRH considers reasonable ranges for a special election between two Republicans in this seat. The survey is older, whiter, more conservative, and more Romney-supporting than the district as a whole - but this scenario is consistent with a low-turnout election in which Democrats are unlikely to be excited about their choice between two conservative Republicans.

Results:

These results are welcome news for the Boustany campaign, as the 51-33 lead shows a similarly dominant position as an internal poll by POS released several weeks ago, which had Boustany leading Landry 56-29. Boustany holds commanding leads among almost all demographics, including Conservatives and Romney voters. Unless we see a dramatic momentum shift in the final week, or Landry can turn out his voters much more effectively, Boustany appears nearly assured of a fifth term.

Discussion:

The matchup between two Republican incumbents in the third district was precipitated by combining Lousiana's old third and seventh districts in a form that largely left intact the prior seventh district, based around Lafayette and Lake Charles. In the "jungle primary" on November 6, Rep. Charles Boustany topped Rep. Jeff Landry by a 45-30 margin, with 21% going to Democrat Ron Richard. This result, however, was seen as a victory for Landry; at the time, there was still a significant question over whether he could even force a runoff.

In a race between two Republicans with party activists likely to dominate a low-turnout runoff election, Landry has attempted to stake out a claim to the more conservative mantle. Landry's more conservative positioning has allowed Boustany to build large leads with Liberals, Moderates, and Obama voters. On the right, Boustany lost the trust of some conservative activists after supporting a failed Democratic-backed redistricting plan that would have put the seat of Rep. John Fleming (R-Minden) at risk of a Democratic takeover. However, that anger does not seem to have translated to the general electorate, as Boustany leads Landry among Conservatives and Romney voters, though Landry is stronger with these groups than he is overall. And despite only needing his own territory to win, Boustany seems to be doing as good a job of winning votes on Landry's home turf in the old third district (Iberia, St. Martin, and St. Mary Parishes) as Landry is on Boustany's home turf, the old seventh, which comprises the remainder of the district. In particular, Landry has failed to dent Boustany's strong lead in Calcasieu Parish, where Boustany leads Landry by a 4:1 margin despite neither Congressman being a native of the area. The one bright spot for the Landry campaign appears to be young voters, where he leads; however, these voters comprise a tiny portion of the electorate in a low-turnout election. Landry's only possible path to victory is by turning out young voters and voters in his home territory around New Iberia at a much higher rate than their percentage of survey respondents.

Accordingly, RRH is changing our race rating for this contest from Lean Boustany to Safe Boustany.

If you enjoyed this poll, please consider making a donation so that we may conduct ones  in the future. RRH polls strive to be more than just toplines, with lots of crosstabs and analysis that you won't get from anyone else - often for races that few others are willing to poll. None of the mods take a cent for our work at RRH, so it's as simple as this - the more money we get, the sooner we can poll again. Please consider donating, even as little as $1, today.

Crosstabs:

Here are the results of our demographic and ideological questions:

Age18-3435-5960+
%104545

Age is the only one where weighting was used to modify the raw data.

RaceWhiteBlackHispanicAsianOther
%829117

GenderMaleFemale
%4159

IdeologyLiberalModerateConservativeOther
%8185915

2012 PresObamaRomneySomeone ElseNon-Voter
%167662

Were there a Democrat running, this would be a heavily Republican-leaning sample, but we think that the presence of two well right-of-center candidates has depressed Democratic enthusiasm roughly enough that the electorate is in line with these figures.

Here is the geographic breakdown relative to the total number of people in each parish. The survey figures jive pretty well with the total population, with Calcasieu's slight undersampling (and the Lafayette/Iberia oversampling) likely showing decreased enthusiasm in the west. This condition may be due to both candidates being from the eastern Lafayette side of the district.

Parish Figures% of district population% of survey respondents
Acadia8.28.7
Calcasieu25.522.0
Cameron0.90.4
Iberia9.711.1
Jefferson Davis4.15.7
Lafayette29.331.9
St. Landry0.40.5
St. Martin6.56.7
St. Mary7.17.0
Vermillion7.76.1

Here are the demographic and ideological crosstabs. Note Landry does better with men, more conservative voters, and especially with younger voters, while Boustany has the opposite trend.

DemographicsBoustanyLandryUndecided
Black voters372538
White voters553213
Obama voters621622
Romney voters513811
Conservatives484111
Moderates672013
Liberals581725
18-34335417
35-59503515
60+572518
Women553016
Men463618

And here are the geographic crosstabs:

By ParishSurvey %BoustanyLandryUndecidedNov. Result
Acadia8.7612514B59  L26
Calcasieu22.0641620B46  L18
Cameron0.4No DataNo DataNo DataB59  L28
Iberia11.1196912L52  B24
Jefferson Davis5.7561826B51 L26
Lafayette31.9602614B51  L26
St. Landry0.5No DataNo DataNo DataB53  L32
St. Martin6.724697L47  B29
St. Mary7.0285715L47  B19
Vermillion6.1561925B56  L30
All from old 3rd24.8236512L46  B24
All from old 7th75.2612217B51  L24

Maps - Topline performance

Dark Blue = Boustany > 60%
Light Blue = Boustany > 50%
Light Green = Landry > 50%
Dark Green = Landry > 60%
White = Insufficent Data

As you can see, each Rep. is doing well on his home turf, especially the big parishes of Lafayette and Calcasieu, which together make up more than half the district. That's in a nutshell why Boustany is leading. But it even goes deeper than that. Let's compare the margin on election day to the margin in the polling -

Dark Blue = Boustany wins by more than November
Light Blue = Boustany wins by about the same or less than November
Light Green = Landry wins by about the same or less than November
Dark Green = Landry wins by more than November
White = Insufficent Data

It looks very similar, which means that each man is not only winning his home turf, he's winning it by a bigger margin that he did on Nov. 6th. Landry really needed a lot more light blue and dark green on this map to have any hope. Boustany's ability to turn out his home voters very effectively appears to be sealing the deal here.

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It looks like Landry is most popular with young, high-turnout activist types (read: many of us).
Also, the geographic breakdown looks exactly like what you get if you parcel out both men's territory based on what is in their current districts.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Very very nice!
Amazing that the tiny county crosstabs match the election results.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Agreed
I'll tentatively say that we should use this pollster and these methods in the future.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
First of course
We have to wait for Saturday.
It only needs to strive to be generally accurate because such special runoffs are very hard to poll because of the little known  target weights. Though, of course this matches CW. If anything is wrong, it's most likely going to be underestimating Boustany if somehow Ds turn out more.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Saturday's results were the impetus for the inclusion of "tentatively."


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
And yes, of course
This confirms CW.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Nice way to burst into the polling scene
A big step forward for the site in general.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Thanks for the PDF
Looks very cool.

26, Male, R, NY-10

"November 2011 gubernatorial election"?
Minor correction: Louisiana's 2011 gubernatorial election was held in October, with no November runoff because Jindal won more than 50%.

Ah, you're right
I should have remembered because I actually looked up the date when ordering the forms! Silly Louisiana - who holds an election on October 22nd?

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The same people who think a Saturday in December is the best time to choose a Congressman
We love you because you're different, Louisiana.

[ Parent ]
I like this!
Not the actual results; I suppose, as a left-wing Democrat, I'm mildly rooting for the older guy (Landry, right?) But definitely love to see small independent, competent groups commissioning polls.

American. | Democrat. | Econ & WGS major.

Boustany is 15 years older
And while both are conservative Republicans, Boustany is less loyal to the party (which is why he angered so many of us during redistricting). So Democrats are probably pulling for him here.

[ Parent ]
Wow!
This is probably the best polling write-up I have seen in my entire life.  I don't even care about this race, but this was clearly a job well-done.  The accuracy of the Parish crosstabs vis-a-vis November results is simply astounding.  Pending the actual results, there is a very good chance I will donate to the fund for future polling.   Well done, guys.

CO-6, socially liberal, fiscally conservative, devout atheist

Good stuff
Love the detail and the depth here.

Was there any thinking on how much to push the respondents?  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


We were limited in how many questions we could ask
and we wanted to get all the demographic and ideology stuff in. Our wording was "are you more likely to vote for" rather than "will you vote for" Boustany or Landry - but we couldn't ask a follow-up question of the undecideds.

A week before a low-interest special election, I feel confident in saying that most of those people are really undecided. There are a lot of black voters in that pile too - I'd bet a significant number of those just don't show up.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Not everyone's full time occupation is horce racing. To many people they're one and the same. That's also a big part why territory is so important. If it's the same, they go with the more local one.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
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