Political Roundup for December 10, 2012

Shealy

It's a shame she didn't oust the odious Knotts four years ago as she might have been a good Senate appointee by now. I'd bet on her as Joe Wilson's successor though.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:49:49 PM UTC

The NYDN declared nuclear war on the NY Independence Party

Not sure about the background and they're definitely right. Multiple editorials today.

http://m.nydailynews.com/opini...

http://m.nydailynews.com/opini...

http://m.nydailynews.com/opini...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 13:26:41 PM UTC

It's the SOS's fault

Unaffiliated, Unenrolled, No Partisan Affiliation voters should be labeled "Independent". That's what any normal person calls them, and thus block any party that attempts to use the word Independent in their name.  

R, MA-3

---

by: Merrimackman @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:27:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Morning Thoughts

FL-Gov: I'm not sure if Scott can be successfully primaried. I'm also not sure that he'd lose to Crist, but this is looking like a good Democratic opportunity right now.

PA-Gov; Schwartz, on the other hand, scares me a lot. I'm not sure if she wants to leave her House leadership track, though.

SC-Gov: Consider the source. ALso, consider that Knotts doesn't seem very strong.

LA-03: Congrats, guys.

MN-06: I guess that this is an extreme case of getting the most ideological candidate that a district or state will support who can still win.

SC-01: Summey is a former Democrat whose loyalty has been questioned. Kobrovsky is no longer on the Charleston County School Board.

New Jersey: Well, if doesn't encapsulate the nation's swing, I don't know what does.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

---

by: Son_of_the_South @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 13:30:30 PM UTC

Where

Has our friend/mod rdel disappeared to?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 13:36:10 PM UTC

rdel

He posted once a month or so ago and disappeared again.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

---

by: Tekzilla @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 13:50:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting fracking poll

http://www.observer-reporter.c...

This really shows how left wing upstate New York has become.  More people support fracking in the NYC suburbs and NYC than upstate.  Compare this to the poll of Washington County PA where there is little opposition.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 14:58:10 PM UTC

Drinking water

Upstate NY is probably concerned about the quality of their drinking water.

---

by: Joe Cooper @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:58:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eastern NYS is close to VT

And thinks it should have a more tourist based economy. Plus higher education is huge in Upstate NY & the college crowd has no use for the grimy oil industry

Suspect in the Southern Tier & WNY Fracking is more popular  

---

by: CTIronman @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 23:18:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They probably took Gasland as fact

Also, Cuomo probably didn't help things when he suggested lifting the ban in counties furthest away from the NYC area.  That smacks of "We want to make sure only Up-staters would have to potentially face consequences and not people from NYC".

Oh well, their loss.  Though I'm still betting on Obama just killing the whole endeavor via national regulation soon anyway.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

---

by: Greyhound @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 23:26:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama

Obama loves fracking as it helps meet his climate change targets.  I suspect we will see even more of it as a way of undermining coal.

Ironically enough, a 2005 law prohibits the EPA from really regulating fracking.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 01:16:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA Gov: Casey says...

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.c...

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 14:59:48 PM UTC

I wonder who he appoints

I believe we would have an excellent shot at a 2015 special election.

26, R, PA-01.

---

by: krazen1211 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 15:09:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heh

Cue "MANAN TRIVEDI FOR SENATE!1!" squeals from the netroots. :p

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 15:21:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Schwartz, McCord, Kane

seem like the only three real options given that the appointee will need to be an excellent fund-raiser and be able to start a statewide campaign in 3 months.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 15:33:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yes, their bench does seem a bit slim

On our side, Gerlach has already passed up a Senate promotion once, but I think we have a reasonable number of good options.

26, R, PA-01.

---

by: krazen1211 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 16:26:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This could be dangerous

If Casey were to win, he would likely be a good bet to win reelection as well, which would impact redistricting in 2021. Moreover, Corbett needs to lose to a Republican who ultimately wins the general, so that we have an incumbent seeking reelection in 2018.

Protecting a half dozen seats or so is more important than a 50-50 shot at a senate seat.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

---

by: aas34 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 15:21:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Half a dozen

By 2020 I suspect you will have to engage in a massive gerrymander to have the Democrats be competitive in more than 8 seats.  

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 15:44:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just go back to something similar to the old map

And it would put PA-6, 7, 8, 11, and 12 in play, while 3, 10, and 18 could be competitive under the right circumstances.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

---

by: aas34 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 15:50:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You cannot go back to that map

I suspect even if we had 19 seats still you would have seen a massive reworking of the seats as the population shifts were that great.  People will be two seats down from 2001 in 2021.  

2006 and 2008 are horrible models as they were arguably the worst Republican years the party's existence coupled with several scandals.  PA-10 would have never flipped without Sherwood beating his mistress in 2006 and Rick Santorum's right hand man endorsing the Democrat after losing the primary in 2008.  PA-7 would have not flipped if not for Weldon having a scandal.


27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 16:25:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I said a version since they lost a seat

Putting 06 and 08 aside. Many of those seats were still competitive even though the GOP held most of them. A big difference to not being contested as they were most recently.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

---

by: aas34 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:00:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I expect

in a court map, 10 and 11 will get merged (instead of 17 being cut, which is probably what will happen if Rs hold the trifecta) Between 6-7-15-16, I think we'll lose 1-2 of them. And everything else will be more or less the same. Loss of 2-3 seats maybe; not all that terrible.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 16:37:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Important questions

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:07:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My Bets

1)  Probably not.  Since Philly is down really to 1 MM district, I could see them trying to keep 2 districts entirely in Philly and instead trying to draw a fullDelco-EastChester district.

2) I don't think they'd change this.  It'll probably wind up being all of Bucks along with the border areas of MontCO.

3)I don't think the population would let that (probably will attach Berks to Upper MontCo and to fill out the rest of the Leigh-Northampton district)

4)Probably.  I can't think of any reason not to, since Pittsburgh has to pick up 400,000 people from somewhere, and it would be weird to avoid taking the eastern suburbs.

5)Maybe, though as I said before I'd bet this district becomes more MontCo based and only winds up with 50,000-100,000 people in NE Philly as the 2nd and 1st districts expand NE to fill out the city.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

---

by: Greyhound @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:18:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Court Maps

usually like to keep the basic architecture of the last legislatively drawn map as much as possible. But it's far too early to get that specific... at this point the only prediction I'm willing to hazard is that the eliminated seat will come out of NEPA.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:19:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

if PA only loses 1 seat, agree

If PA ends up losing 2 seats again (like they've done every for the past few censuses), then a court might cut such that one of the double bunkings is R on R while the other is D on D rather than have two R on D double bunkings.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

---

by: joncnunn @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:18:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Answers

1) In the 1991 Court map, PA-1 expanded into Delaware County for the first time and has remained largely the same except it has enlarged a little bit.  From a COI perspective, PA-1 is a pretty coherent district other than the arm to Swarthmore.  PA-1 would need to increase obviously as its losing population.

2) Based on prior court experience, I suspect they would just add more of Montgomery to PA-8.  I suspect Horsham and Hatfield would be obvious choices due to COI.  The 2001 PA-8 configuration was an unusual creature.

3) The Lehigh Valley would be the most interesting.  I could see a court going several ways.  Berks is the largest county that is not in the majority of any CD.  I suspect a more likely option would be splitting Lancaster County and attaching part to Berks and Lebanon then another portion to Chester.  Another option would be Berks, Schuykill, Lebanon, and Carbon.  Barring Tim Holden that would be a great seat for us.

4)  PA-14 has to grow.  Along the river valleys makse the most sense COI wise.

5)  I suspect the PA-1, PA-2, and PA-13 outline might not change that much.  The seat would need to grow outward, but it is pretty compact other than Meehan's arm into Montco.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:22:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA-07

What do you think the court would do to PA-07?  I know courts like to generally follow the most recent legislatively passed plans, but I can't imagine it'd retain its 2012 configuration...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:32:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SEPA

If I was the court, I would try to compact the SEPA seats.  PA-1 would largely remain the same, but eat almost all of Upper Darby with DelCo being split in half.  Move PA-2 entirely into the city with the rest of Philly going to PA-13.

PA-8 would remain a Bucks dominated district, but expand further into Montco.

PA-13 would be compacted and remain a Northeast Philly-Montco split.

I see a significant redraw of PA-6, PA-7, and PA-16.  I would give half of Delco to Chester, which would create a Republican leaning seat.

PA-15 would eat Lehigh, Northampton, and part of Berks, probably the portion it has now.

PA-16 would be a Lancaster-Berks seat as is.

Probably a net loss of 1 seat, but that seat would be moved elsewhere and be at least lean Republican.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:52:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerlach and Meehan

It's rather unfortunate that their seats would merged, although I think Meehan or Gerlach would run for governor in 2018 to avoid that.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 17:54:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerlach could conceivably take over Pitts' seat

But 2022 is such an eternity away that it's a fool's errand to even be talking about that year's candidates now.

---

by: BostonPatriot @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:13:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yea

In many respects Pitts is the reason the map is so nasty.  

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:08:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pitts

It's a shame that Pitts and Gerlach live so close together. Lancaster County has wanted it's own congressional seat (and congressman) for a long time. Pitts refused to move. While I respect that others may feel differently on this issue, I think the map-makers should have simply told him "look, these seats will be around for 10 years. You will not be here in 10 years. Move now, for the sake of long term interests."

If you put Lancaster & Lebanon Counties into one district, you're only 52K short of the perfect district size. This could easily be accomplished by adding a small part of an adjacent county.

Just my opinion.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

---

by: FitchMike26 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:14:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is why I love RRH/DKE

All this discussion for something that might possibly happen in 2021.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

---

by: Tekzilla @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:40:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not 2021

I wasn't referring specifically to 2021. What I meant was...by 2021, Pitts would no longer be a Congressman. I fully expect him to be gone before then, no disrespect intended.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

---

by: FitchMike26 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:00:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Worries

I meant the whole discussion in general.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

---

by: Tekzilla @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:02:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FYI

I doubt Casey runs and I doubt he wins the primary if he even runs.  Casey could not beat Rendell in 2002 when the Democratic primary electorate was far less eastern skewed.  Specter proved you can come close to winning a Democratic primary with a few counties.  McCord would likely win the suburban counties and Philly, which should be enough by itself against Casey.

The only way Casey runs is if Schwartz and McCord and another Philly candidate run.  Casey needs a heavily divided field to have a chance.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 15:47:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Casey

Casey is terrified of primaries. He will only run if it appears he is "dragged" into running. And then he'll demand that the primary field be cleared of any serious contenders.

The PA Democratic Party doesn't have anyone capable of "clearing" the field right now. There is no boss or leader of the party, post-Rendell. This isn't 2004 or 2006.

A special election for US Senate in this scenario would take place November 2015...when the Philly Mayor's race and several County Commission races are on the ballot. Some say this helps Dems, some say it actually helps the GOP.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

---

by: FitchMike26 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:17:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Philly mayoral election years huge benefit for the Dems

In statewide judicial elections when Philly holds Mayoral & city council elections, the Democrats win approximately 3/5 to 2/3 of the statewide posts.

In the years when no Philly mayoral election is taking place the change is dramatic; the GOP has won upwards of 90% of the statewide posts in those years.

You basically remove 200-300K Philly straight-party Democratic voters from the mix.

South Philly Gay Republican

---

by: w920us @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:42:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

25 P.S. § 2776

I am not sure it would occur during the primary or general election.  The language of the statute and definitions seems to be a bit unclear:

Whenever a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator, said vacancy shall be filled for the unexpired term by the vote of the electors of the State at a special election to be held at the time of the next general or municipal election, occurring at least ninety (90) days after the happening of such vacancy, and it shall be the duty of the Governor to issue writs of election to the various county boards of elections and to the Secretary of the Commonwealth within ten (10) days after the happening of said vacancy. Candidates to fill vacancies in the office of United States Senator shall be nominated by political parties, in accordance with the party rules relating to the filling of vacancies, by means of nomination certificates, in the form prescribed in section 630 of this act;1 and by political bodies, by means of nomination papers in accordance with the provisions of sections 951, 952 and 954 of this act.2 Said nomination certificates and nomination papers shall be filed in the office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth at least sixty (60) days prior to the date of said special election. Until such time as said vacancy shall be filled by an election as herein provided, the Governor of the Commonwealth may make a temporary appointment to fill said vacancy.

Does this include the municipal primary?  If that is the case, I suspect a special election could occur as early as the municipal primary in May, which probably helps the Dems as the Philly mayor's race will be contested in the primary but probably not the general.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:55:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two things

1) I appreciate the points about May vs November. I'll make a few phone calls today & see if anyone has better clarification on this issue. I've always interpreted it to mean a November general election.

2) I expect AL Schmidt to run for Mayor as an Republican in 2015. This makes the race more competitive than usual. The last time an Republican almost won was 1999, and a lot of circumstances now similar to 1999, including having a Democrat as President for the last 7 years.

Sam Katz lost by less than one half of one percentage point, or 7200 votes.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

---

by: FitchMike26 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:07:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Philly competitive election

Making the Philly mayoral contest competitive is great, but you doom every statewide Republican judicial candidate. They can't overcome the increased heavy Dem turnout coming out of Philly.

South Philly Gay Republican

---

by: w920us @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:22:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hear you

Just expressing what I guess might happen. Of course, I hold no crystal ball.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

---

by: FitchMike26 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:32:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SC-Sen Speculation

According to Peter Hamby from CNN on Twitter, Nikki Haley has scheduled a press conference for noon tomorrow in CHARLESTON... this could be completely unrelated, but if it's to announce the Senate appointment then this points toward Rep. Scott.


MA-08  

---

by: nhgop @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:13:46 PM UTC

PPP goes off the deep end

There's a line between off-year doldrums fun and spoiling a reasonably important poll. And they crossed it: http://www.publicpolicypolling...

---

by: BostonPatriot @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:18:47 PM UTC

Yes

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:21:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They didn't test Darius Rucker!

He'd be a more serious pick than Colbert  

---

by: CTIronman @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:23:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From Enten

Colbert reaches 20% in SC poll. Alvin Greene reached 28% in 2010. I think that's all that needs to be said.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:28:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

they want eyeballs I guess

And that trumps the actual, meaningful results of the poll for them.  This will get them press and Comedy Central free media that a poll showing Scott was the favorite certainly would not.  As you say, it could be excused if it wasn't at such a crucial time for a Senate appointment.  But they seem to feed on attention, both positive and negative (the way they goad detractors on twitter, mock other politicians and pollsters, etc), so I'm sure after this poll they are flying a large banner in NC that says "Mission Accomplished!"

---

by: pstchrisp @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:32:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

All WA results by CD

Reichert overperformed Romney by 12%, 48-60.
JHB by 10%, 50-60.
CMR by 9%, 53-62.
Hastings by 6%, 60-66.

We have very good incumbents in Washington.
Romney got 41% in the state, congressional Rs got 46%!

https://docs.google.com/spread...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:27:32 PM UTC

Interesting WA-Gov numbers

McKenna did well enough to win in suburban Seattle, even in Inslee's district. But he didn't run strongly enough in the Republican parts of the state--Beutler's district and east of the Cascades. If he overperformed Romney there by as much as he did in the Democratic districts, he'd be Governor-elect right now.

---

by: BostonPatriot @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:38:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WA-Gov

When I met with McKenna in his living room in June, we spoke at length about his campaign strategy. He was under the impression that eastern WA would come around to him but that he needed to keep on over-performing in western Washington (more specifically districts 1-3, 7-10) in order to win. He thought that he'd need to spend most of his time in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties to run a successful campaign that would allow him to over-perform enough in Western Washington to carry the day.

Unfortunately, it looks like not campaigning enough in Eastern Washington may have done him in. It looks like he couldn't rely on Eastern Washington to come around to supporting him at a sufficient rate.

Thankfully, it looks like the fiscally conservative suburbs can't be blamed here. I'm particularly glad to see that the right Republican can over-perform significantly in the Seattle area. That gives me hope that we will in fact retain WA-08 with a good King County candidate when it's open in a few cycles (and that we may be able to compete for WA-01 with a better candidate if DelBene runs for Senate in 2016 if Murray calls it quits.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:50:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

May I ask

in what "function" you were in the living room? I mean, it has been hinted over times that your background is a political one. I'd be curious in knowing, if allowed. :)

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

---

by: GerGOP @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:22:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

GerGOP

My childhood best friend is McKenna's neighbor and their families are friends.

As for my political background, you can email me if you'd like at the address on my account profile. I like to hint to things on here but I never like to outright say things so that it's not easily Googleable.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:23:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Using SSM as the so-con barometer

McKenna ran ahead statewide; but Romney ran behind by 5%

I know he didn't campaign in WA; but neither did Obama. Really weak result IMO  

---

by: CTIronman @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:31:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Corbett: No will for RTW in PA

What a freaking wimp. Retire already and let Pat Meehan take the Governor's mansion.

http://mainlinemedianews.com/a...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:32:17 PM UTC

Don't have the votes

You simply don't have the hostilities brewing to push many of fence setters over the edge.  In addition, I think the union climate is significantly different.  It is really hard to argue that some blue collar unions in PA, i.e. miners, don't fit the dangerous justification used for police and fire unions being exempt in Michigan.

FYI... Meehan is easily the most pro-labor Republican in the congressional delegation even more than Fitzpatrick.  He is heavily tied to organized labor, i.e. police, fire, and aerospace unions.  There is no way he would support right to work.

27, Republican, PA-6

---

by: Ryan_in_SEPA @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:13:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meehan

Yes, he has some serious union ties but he'd be a far more effective governor than Corbett has been. I'd also be rather happy with a Jim Gerlach gubernatorial bid, although I think Meehan has more potential to scare Corbett into retirement.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:17:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haley won't appoint placeholder

Yep, it's Scott.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:35:57 PM UTC

Will be in CHS tomorrow

With no placeholder, Scott is most likely.
http://www.earlcapps.org/

SC1-Charleston

---

by: SCRep @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 18:38:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great news

Truly great news if it's indeed Scott!

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

---

by: GerGOP @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:21:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republicans take control in WA

http://mynorthwest.com/174/213...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:21:25 PM UTC

Wow

Why did the Democrats do this?  don't they control the Governorship and the other house?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

---

by: Tekzilla @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:05:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It sounds like that was why actually

From their statements, the defectors appear to be taking the same position as Cuomo in that giving Democrats full control of the state government would be a bad thing.  What's the State Democratic party like there?

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

---

by: Greyhound @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:08:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well they're true DINO's

One is a conservative Democrat from rural Washington and the other is a former Republican who ran as a Democrat in a Bellevue district.  

---

by: jessejames @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:28:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Excellent!

I'm especially pleased that Steve Litzlow, the Mercer Island-based State Senator who was reelected by 8 points in a 63% Obama (2008), 55% Murray (2010) seat will be chairing the Education Committee. If anyone can get some sort of education reform passed in Washington, it's a widely respected (by both sides of the aile) State Senator like Litzlow.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:58:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I blame autocorrect...

Litzow, not Litzlow.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line.

---

by: RockRibbedR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:03:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not likely to happen

The teachers unions spent big bucks for Inslee. He's in their pocket.

---

by: BostonPatriot @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:13:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The liberals will freak out with this news

Reminds me of the NYS IDC and GOP coalition. What is the official title for Skelos and Klein? Are they now called state Senate Co-Majority Leader?  

---

by: PHL Rep @ Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 01:48:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Something like that

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 02:31:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-2 from DKE

Democrat Brendan Mullen had quite the headwind in IN-02. The fact that Obama won this district in 2008 really shows his overperformance in the state that year, with a victory measured in decimals turning into a 56-42 Romney rout. That Mullen lost by little more than one percent is pretty amazing.

Walorski should go. Should never have gotten a second shot.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:25:55 PM UTC

Relax

It was an open seat pick-up. If it happens again in 2014, then I'll agree with you.  

R, MA-3

---

by: Merrimackman @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:39:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Price/Boehner

Should a debt deal go sour, the buzz is that Tom Price, a 58-year-old physician from Georgia, may challenge John Boehner for the speaker's gavel.

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

---

by: MinnesotaTwins @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:39:40 PM UTC

TX-8

Went from R+27 to R+30. From 73% McCain to 77% Romney.
Ralph Hall goes from R+24 to R+27.
Roger Williams goes from R+10 to R+13.
Same with Carter.
Stockman went from R+22 to R+26.

Veasy went from D+16 to D+21. I think that it might pay to have this sink in the long term.
EBJ went from D+25 to D+29. Beautiful sink.
Al Green went from D+23 to D+27.

The R seats got much redder, the D seats got bluer.

Obama got more in 2012 than in 2008 in every D district.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:41:22 PM UTC

turnout matters

Veasey won by 54,000 votes. Burgess alone won by 102,000 votes. Marchant, Sessions, Hensarling, Barton each won by ~50,000 votes or more.

Cracking that district into pieces means those guys need to take maybe 10,000 Democrats each.

26, R, PA-01.

---

by: krazen1211 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:52:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Full of illegals and non-voting legals.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:19:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The issue is

Will that last the Decade?  We've already seen in CA what happens when you assume that a low-turnout group will stay that way.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

---

by: Greyhound @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:35:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX is not CA (nt)

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

---

by: TexasR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:43:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or worse

Amnesty happens this decade...  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:44:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX-29 has been around for 2 decades

And it still only casts 80k Democratic votes. Kevin Brady is sitting on an excess of 150k votes.

26, R, PA-01.

---

by: krazen1211 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:07:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cracking TX-33

That presumes more than redistributing its pieces. It also requires a replacement district which will need its share of Republicans.

The key question is what was the PVI of the TX-33 district that the legislature originally wanted to put in place. Does someone have that?

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:42:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

C185 TX-33

It was R+10-12 in 2008, I believe.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

---

by: TexasR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:42:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the weakest metroplex district

If I recall, was 54% McCain.

26, R, PA-01.

---

by: krazen1211 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:00:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

*55% McCain

TX-32 was the weakest Metroplex district in both maps, at 55% McCain under both maps.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

---

by: TexasR @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:04:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about Romney?

That's what I'm wondering about. If the PVI of TX-33 shifted D, then I'd like to know what the PVI of whatever district that replaced it looks like.

That reminds me, I need to look into the feasibility of getting the 2012 election data for Texas on DRA, and updating the SSVR data if Texas has released a new file.

My DRA efforts have been on hold as I've been overwhelmed by the other three big projects I've had going, but I'm planning to pick back up with it after I submit the first chapter of my book on Dec 22.

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 02:20:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX-32 is 57% Romney

The Metroplex districts (and most of the Texas GOP districts) moved 2-4 points right. TX-06 was 58% Romney. TX-26 (the district that takes the biggest hit in the state plan) was 68% Romney.

The state drawn TX-33 was slightly more Republican than TX-32 and TX-06.

26, R, PA-01.

---

by: krazen1211 @ Wed Dec 12, 2012 at 15:26:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correction

Whatever district would replace it, which presumably would be close to what the legislature wanted to do in the first place.

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 02:22:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OH-3 became D+29 from D+24

Great GOP-initiated vote sink.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Fudge from D+29 to D+32. Also a good VRA+ sink.

Obama fared a little better in the Stivers district than in 2008. The OH-3 sink was a necessity.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

---

by: MosheM @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 19:52:48 PM UTC

GOP better do better in metro Columbus than it did in 12

Or Buckeye State's gone blue.  Hard to believe in the 80's Franklin County usually went Republican  

---

by: CTIronman @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:15:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They moved to the adjoining counties

They don't need to carry Franklin County, they do need to run up the score in the surrounding counties the Republicans moved to.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

---

by: joncnunn @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 23:25:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unsurprising but worthwhile fact of the day

NC Labor Commissioner Berry and Ag Commissioner Troxler won almost the exact same number and percentage of votes, but Berry won Forsyth and Troxler lost it, while Troxler won 5 rural counties that Berry lost.

Interesting display of how the incumbency advantage works.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

---

by: shamlet @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 20:05:41 PM UTC

NC-SEN PPP:Foxx first, Thillis last

Per Tweet.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

---

by: Tekzilla @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:17:27 PM UTC

That would be awesome

I definitely endorse Foxx for the GOP nomination, but it sounds like name recognition more than anything else.

Democrat, NC-11

---

by: roguemapper @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:36:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

She's the only NC Congressional Republican who has anything resembling a profile.  Of the 5 that were elected pre-2010, we have Walter Jones (ideologically unacceptable), Howard Coble (Too Old and on retirement watch), Sue Myrick (Retired), Patrick McHenry (2nd Place) and Virginia Foxx.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

---

by: Greyhound @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:43:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paging Moderator

Can we get the date at the top of this page corrected? Today is December 10th, not the 9th.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

---

by: FitchMike26 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:46:27 PM UTC

Yep, that's my bad

My computer automatically date-stamps the post, so when I write it the night before I need to go in and manually change it. Thanks for the heads up.

---

by: BostonPatriot @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 21:53:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No worries

n/t

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

---

by: FitchMike26 @ Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 22:00:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]