Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About

Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

Problems logging into your account? Inside information? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at: redracinghorses@yahoo.com. We check it often!

RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Political Roundup for December 12, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Wed Dec 12, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EST


12/12/12! This is the last of the triple days until January 1, 2101, although February 2, 2022 will be pretty cool as well.

Congress

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon, after promising to run a different campaign in 2012 than in 2010, spent about $40M of her own money this year. Yoinks.

KY-Sen: PPP finds Mitch McConnell highly unpopular (37/55!) but still ahead of all Democratic comers, including Ashley Judd, who leads the primary field. (Somehow, Judd leading among Kentucky Dems makes Monday's Colbert poll seem less bad.) McConnell looks safe in his primary.

MA-Sen: Roll Call makes the case against a Kerry Cabinet appointment. Most notably, it would leave the Foreign Affairs committee in the hands of Bob Menendez, who is more of a hawk than the administration might be comfortable with.

NC-Sen: PPP's first of many looks at Sen. Kay Hagan's (D) re-election tells us...not much. Hagan has middling approvals (44/43) and has small-to-medium leads over the lesser known Republicans, scoring in the 40's against each. Rep. Virginia Foxx leads the name-rec driven GOP primary.

IL-02: Sandi Jackson didn't rule out a bid for her husband's seat. Yes, Chicago voters would probably vote for another Jackson. We're likely to know more about this race after Saturday, when the Cook County Dems meet to make an endorsement.

Crossroads: They're getting right back in the saddle, spending $240K on radio ads against the "Big Four" of 2014: Mark Begich, Mary Landrieu, Kay Hagan, and Tim Johnson. Strangely, a fifth ad is running against recently re-elected Sen. Joe Manchin in WV, although Xroads says it's meant for Rockefeller.

Governor

MD-Gov: Peter Franchot, arguably the only reasonable Democrat who could have run for governor, will instead seek re-election as comptroller.

PA-Gov: Sen. Bob Casey saw his shadow and has ruled out a run. The article mentions a Democrat we hadn't heard connected to this race before: one-term ex-Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, who won a fairly impressive race in 2008 but went quietly in 2010. In other words, a non-entity.

OH-Gov: Quinnipiac has John Kasich (R) in positive approval territory (42/35) for the first time ever, with even higher personal popularity, but losing a generic re-elect 36/43. The poll tests favorables for a bunch of Dems but doesn't include horserace numbers.

Various Races: Roll Call sizes up the Members most likely to return home for a gubernatorial bid in 2014: Bruce Braley (IA), Mike Michaud (ME), Gary Peters (MI), Allyson Schwartz (PA), Aaron Schock (IL), Frank Guinta (NH) and, yes, Bill Pascrell (NJ).

Miscellaneous

DeMint: Jim DeMint will sit out the 2014 cycle and not endorse Senate candidates as he did in previous years. However, his Senate Conservatives Fund will continue under new management.

WATN?: Ex-Rep. Mark Schauer, who split a pair of races against Rep. Tim Walberg, was pepper sprayed outside the State Capitol yesterday while leading an angry mob of union protesters. Classy.

BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for December 12, 2012
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

KY-Sen
It's because their leads are the product of the same effect, she would already be trailing in any one on one matchup. Of course, like Colbert, there's a negligible chance she could actually win the primary if she had to weather the campaign, and have voters think of her in a political way.

That she's never faced public criticism and has been portrayed in solely positive apolitical light, and still trails by 4, is pretty bad in my opinion.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Schauer
When was the last time a former Republican member of Congress was pepper sprayed by police for leading an angry mob that grabbed a cop?

28, Republican, PA-6

IL-2: Jackson's wife not running
Senate Leaders
I suspect that McConnell will end up like Reid circa 2010. Go into election day grotesquely unpopular, but win anyways.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

What I thought
And KY is much much redder than NV is bluish.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Bit of a correction
Harry Reid was not "grotesquely unpopular" going into election day.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Suffolk actually had his job approval +2 in mid-October.  His final job rating according to PPP was 42-55, which is 99% sure to be better than McConnell's final job rating in 2013 - and PPP was 7 points skewed toward Angle compared to the final result.


[ Parent ]
PPP concern trolling uber-popular McCrory
Perdue is definitely closing the gap...
...

[ Parent ]
I try to ignore PPP's write ups for their home state.
I think that they're so emotionally invested in NC Dems that they're analysis isn't worth the pixels that make up the release.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Ignore all their write ups
They're pretty terrible at political analysis, or they aren't trying.  Possibly both.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I think they're decent spinners
When they try to spin a poll for Dems, they do good job of picking the good and hiding the bad. (For example, in the Kentucky poll, they ran a generic ballot test for Gov in '15, and because the GOP won they didn't mention it.) But otherwise, I agree that they aren't great at analysis.

[ Parent ]
Detected that too


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov
Apparently Casey is out of the running again...
http://www.politicspa.com/case...

State Senator Tim Solobay might run...
http://www.politicspa.com/excl...

I suspect Corbett could beat Solobay simply because a significant portion of the Democratic electorate would just stay home.

28, Republican, PA-6


Solobay
Ryan, what do you think a Castor v Solobay race would look like?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Depends
For being pretty conservative, Castor has a good relationship with the Philly Dems.  I could see the Philly Dems sitting on their hands.  I also could see a lot of socially liberal suburban Dems ignoring the race as well.  In some respects, Castor might be more tolerable as he is at least one of them.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Hillary would win KY
Great for them that Obama won
The argument PPP defenders will make is that the electorate was more Democratic than pollsters thought it'd be, so PPP going more Democratic makes sense. That's great, except that wasn't the case in Kentucky.

In 2008 the electorate was D+9 and McCain won by 16. McCain took 30% of Democrats.  We don't have exits for 2012, but Romney won by 22.7. So either the electorate was more Republican or Romney took more than 30% of Democrats. So while other states approached 2008 numbers, Kentucky clearly didn't.

So what does PPP do? They have a D+15 electorate where the Republican takes less than 20% of Democrats. Those of us who said the electorate wouldn't be as Democratic as 2008 were right. It was just closer to 2008 than we thought. PPP continually showed the electorate more Democratic in 2008. Even though they were wrong, they keep going with this. Since Obama won, however, Republicans must be wrong and they must be right!  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
NO
You are not doing this for the next 4 years. Cut it out now.

[ Parent ]
You managed to comment before me
Same here.
I'm fed up with these arguments.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
What are you objecting to?
Is it not okay to critique PPP? Is there something wrong with my analysis of their poll demographics? What do you want me to "cut out?"

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Partisan ID
I think we all learned that partisan ID is an irrelevant factor.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Did we?
I don't think we did. I certainly learned that partisan ID matters very much. PPP was the most accurate pollster because it most accurately predicted the partisan breakdown of 2012. What we learned is that Obama could in fact turn out his base again the way he did in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Even if that's true
It's nitpicking, IMO. The broader point is that pollsters = good at predictions, people who 'unskew' = horrifically bad.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
That said
Clearly a poll 4 years out has next to no predictive value, especially when compared to past election results. But that doesn't have anything to do with partisan ID.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
Of course unskew is bad
I don't even think the people who unskewed were arguing in favor of that. All they were doing was pointing out that the polls were out of whack.

Pollsters = good at predictions isn't something we learned. If anything we learned the opposite. The RCP average was within 1.5 in only 16 of 50 states. In some cases no pollster came close to Obama's margin, although in some others Romney did a lot better than the average. In some cases a pollster hit the number, as PPP did in Colorado. In Oregon and Montana, however, no one came close.

If we learned pollsters are good at predictions, then we aren't paying good attention.

I learned that when two polls with different party IDs could produce the same result they could both be right. I learned that it's possible that every pollster underestimates party ID in either direction.

Party ID is enormously important in polls and in final results.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
What I learned
Not in 2012, but back in '02 and '04, is that polling aggregates are the most accurate means of predicting election results as a systematic rule.

Beyond that, any methodology that increases subjectivity, including my own 'assessment' of polling internals (i.e., unskewing), has a reduced degree of predictive value.

Moreover, I learned that where there is conflicting polling data, the most reliable solution is that which requires disregarding the least number of polls.

Finally, I learned that you cannot equate polling accuracy in a race with a very small subset of polls (e.g., 2 'nonpartisan' Oct polls of Oregon president) with polling accuracy in a race that features an abundance of polling (e.g., 51 'nonpartisan' Oct polls of Ohio president, including those omitted by RCP).

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Doesn't match polling
The average in 8 of the 11 most polled states was off by 2.4 points or more and it was off by 3.4 points or more in 6 of them. Here are the averages

Off by 2.4 points or more
Most polled: 73%
Less polled: 56%

Off by 3.4 points or more
Most polled: 55%
Less polled: 44%

I realize this goes against conventional wisdom, but we can't ignore when the actual results contradict that.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Fair enough
What is your alternative method of greater predictive value?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
That's a question that warrants research
Whether there is a quality alternative to predicting results shouldn't be a determining factor whether we judge polls are a good predictor. Sometimes polls get it right and sometimes they don't.

While the RCP average was off 3.4 points in Iowa, NBC/WSJ/Marist and Des Moines Register were within a point. Actually they may have been closer since they round their result. On the other hand, WeAskAmerica was the only Illinois poll taken within three weeks of election day and their poll was Obama +16 and he won by 16.9.

I don't know if there is anything that has a strong predictive value and that might be something important we learn from the election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
They didn't weight
That was the random sample.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I do not speak for the Moderators
but your stubborn refusal to listen to the explanations people who actually understand polling, and your hostile attitude towards people who disagree with you could be the first things you could attempt to improve on.

PPP was not "right" about anything; they made no assumptions about party ID! No quality pollster weights for party ID in a likely voter poll, and PPP certainly didn't.

If you're weighting for party ID, why would you do a likely voter poll to begin with? It's inherently contradictory. You're polling, and then ignoring what your respondents say, and replacing it with your personal preconceived biases. If you're weighting for party ID, you clearly have your own ideas of what the electorate will look like, and a registered voter poll would have worked just as well for your purposes. Of course that's not scientifically significant, it's not a real poll. PPP made no assumptions about anything; they polled (multiple times) a large enough demographically representative sample of the public, and, as probability theory suggests is probable, their polls were right. Your random, unscientific spitballing about the electorate was wrong.  

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Polling
Perhaps i have a hostile attitude to those who disagree with me, but communicating that by being condescending that you "understand polling" and I clearly do not isn't a good way to make your case.

The value of using party ID is certainly debatable and saying that it isn't is anti-intellectual. You're shutting down discussion by assuming that your thesis is immutable. This board serves to foster discussion with the premise that ideas can be improved on through discussion.

A poll should always strive to be an accurate predictor of the election. The assumptions made, and how the likely voter is determined, should be examined when making those choices. Pollsters weight polls as a result. What they should or shouldn't weight is certainly debatable.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I apologize.
I didn't intend to be, well, mean. But this is just repetitive at this point. If nothing else, LCL should realize this is not productive for anyone involved.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Worthless poll
I remember polls in early 2008 showing Obama competitive or even winning states like Texas, Kansas and Nebraska. A poll 4 years out from a potential presidential run is worthless.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Agreed it's worthless
Despite what LCL says, it isn't worthless because of the partisan breakdown, which as shown again by 2012, isn't very relevant to a poll's results (PPP, despite being more Democratic leaning than most other pollsters, lowballed Democrats in more states than it highballed them).  

The issue is that Hillary Clinton's approvals will not remain as high as they are now once she is once again identified with national Democrats rather than with the always-popular Secretary of State position.

This does show us, however, that Kentucky is not impossible for a national Democrat the way your home state is.  And that is an interesting data point.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Critique
Party ID doesn't have 100% correlation with poll results, but to say it isn't very relevant is inaccurate. The greater the spread is the more likely the poll will be in that party's favor. In some cases in 2012, pollsters had similar results with different party ID due to different results with independents. While some pollsters may identify people's party ID differently that doesn't mean party ID is irrelevant.

People critiquing PPP weren't wrong in 2012 because party ID didn't matter. We were wrong, and PPP was right, in the party ID breakdown.

PPP overestimated Democratic turn-out in some states and underestimated it in others. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be critiqued when they're doing either. Most pollsters, PPP among them, underestimated Barack Obama's victory in swing states. State polls skewed more Obama but didn't show a 3.5 point victory. But just because PPP, and other pollsters, may have underestimated Obama in swing states in 2012 doesn't mean they'll continue to do so.

Pollsters should be critiqued and the person doing the critiquing should be also. If anyone feels a D+15 electorate is valid, make that argument. If Republican candidates getting less than 20% of the Democratic vote is likely, make that one too.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
IL-13
Hey, Mitt won IL-13! Neat. Davis should be alright in that R+2 in 2012, EVEN PVI seat.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


Went from D+


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
By 900+ votes
The house race basically tracked the presidential one.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
IL 16, 18
Shock went from 54% McCain to 61% Romney!
Kinzinger went from 48% McCain to 53% Romney.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Bobby Schilling's future
If Schock runs for governor, I'd love to see Bobby launch a bid for IL-18. He's represented about 1/6th of it before.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
MD-6
Was 55-43 Obama. Delaney overperformed.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Jimmy Hoffa: We are going to have a civil war
http://www.politico.com/story/...

He should be arrested for inciting violence.

28, Republican, PA-6


Rick Snyder's prediction circa 2010/11 is coming true.
Not sure he has the stomach for the coming divisiveness. I could see him retiring in 2014.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Oops. didn't mean to post that twice.
Sorry!

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
No way that is happening


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
For some reason my comment showed up twice, but then didn't
Sorry for any confusion.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Mods can delete


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yep
We delete double-posts to keep the thread easy to read.

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
For deleting and for letting me know in case it happens again. Feel free to delete my other posts related to this including this post.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe he can join his pension stealing dad in cement*
@#%# him and the horse he rode in on

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
SEN- 2014
It really should be a "Big Seven", of Red State Democrats:
Mark Begich
Mary Landrieu
Kay Hagan
Tim Johnson
John Rockefeller (The 5)
Mark Pryor (Why is he left out?)
Max Baucus (No reason not to challenge here seriously)

Baker '14
R, MA-3


I agree about these Races...
That being said...

a) We would almost need to win them all to get a Majority.
b) We would need a Republican Wave similar to 2010.
c) With no Fisical Deal in Prospect the Blame will come us which means we've to get some Deal with this President otherwise we'll get hammered over and over again on it.


[ Parent ]
Well....
if we can assume Collins runs for re-election and avoids a challenge from a house member...THEN we'd need 6 of 7, as for Arkansas - I think crossroads is waiting to see who picks which race...I'm guessing they are keeping their powder dry on Pryor in case he draws the easy card.

Montana is tough, again recruitment is parmount, especially since the NRSC is almost certainly going to need to go to a business leader (I'm extremely dubious of any Racicot rumours).

Marco Rubio 2016, please


[ Parent ]
Montana is off the table unless we can recruit
former Governor Marc Racicot

[ Parent ]
Did the Dems take seats off the table in 06?
To quote one of my favorite philosophers, Herman Edwards..

"Hello!!!! You play to win the game!!!!!"


[ Parent ]
Yes
Democrats did not seriously contest races based on incumbents. Democrats didn't really run against Snowe, and didn't even out up a candidate in Indiana. Once those incumbenta were no longer the opponent, Democrats* won for an won those seats in 2012. Nevada was another stayed Democrats didn't seriously contest in 06, even though they did in 2012.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Neither Snowe or Lugar were personally tied to an issue the Dems despised
Baucus is Obamacare. MT voted for Romney. Hello, you play to win the game!

[ Parent ]
If none of the big fish jump to challenge Baucus
Someone at the NRSC should call the 5-6 fmr. State Senators that ran for Governor and Lt. Governor last year.

I remember in '06, then Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan (R-Bigfork) challenged Burns in the primary. He ran for Lt. Governor in 2012 with Stapleton. Perhaps he could be talked into it.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
That wasn't the question
The question was "Did the Dems take seats off the table in 06?". The answer is yes, and I gave examples. As to the merits of challenging Caucus, that is an entirely different issue.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Monkey see, monkey do.
Gee, I wonder where he learned his completely appropriate(/s) behavior patterns from.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
I wonder too...


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
McAuliffe gonna put distance here...
Or are a bunch of NOVA hooligans just fine by him?  

[ Parent ]
He didn't commit assault. It was an accident.
Sure, two people witnessed it. Sure, he pled guilty. But it wasn't assault. His dad says so. She must've slipped and rammed her head into the bar's metal trash can cage.

http://www.washingtoncitypaper...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I wonder
If "the Jews" are to blame.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
He's winning the war on women
nt

[ Parent ]
hahaha
even as a Democrat that was pretty funny.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Like father, like son
I wouldn't expect anything less.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen
Can anyone be an intern these days?  Answer:  Yes.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index...


also
The Homeland Security Department instructed federal agents not to arrest him until after Election Day, a U.S. official involved in the case told the AP

Nice.  


[ Parent ]
Weird
The prosecutor's office in Hudson County, N.J., said Sanchez was found to have violated the law in 2010 and subsequently required to register as a sex offender. The exact charge was unclear because Sanchez was prosecuted as a juvenile and those court records are not publicly accessible. The prosecutor's office confirmed to AP that Sanchez registered as a sex offender, although his name does not appear on the public registry.

Authorities in Hudson County notified ICE agents in early October that they suspected Sanchez was an illegal immigrant who was a registered sex offender and who may be eligible to be deported. ICE agents in New Jersey notified superiors at the Homeland Security Department because they considered it a potentially high profile arrest, and DHS instructed them not to arrest Sanchez until after the November election, one U.S. official told the AP. ICE officials complained that the delay was inappropriate, but DHS directed them several times not to act, the official said.

May be eligible to be deported?  I thought being an illegal alien was a clear grounds for deportation.  A registered sex offender who does not appear in the database?  What is the point of the database then?  Something is very fishy here...

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
This stinks to high heavens


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
this is very bad
Basically they left an KNOWN illegal alien sex offender on the street against the wishes of ICE so a D could get re-elected.  Heads should roll immediately.

[ Parent ]
That sounds kind of overdramatic.
Guy wasn't a rapist or something. He was a 16-year old with a 15-year old girlfriend.

[ Parent ]
but you agree...
That choosing to not make an arrest against the wishes of non-partisan law enforcement is not the hallmark of a good department or administration, right?  Especially one charged with the protection of American citizens?  I'd like to hear your defense, because your above post borders on straw-man...

[ Parent ]
Sure.
I just thought the rhetoric of "leaving an illegal alien sex offender out on the streets" was a bit overdone.

An intern in a Senate office isn't lingering around in dark alleys at night waiting for his next victim.


[ Parent ]
It's a tough call
I don't necessarily like the outcome, but the way our government's set up it's perfectly OK for the exec. to do this. Theoretically if people cared enough he wouldn't have been re-elected.  

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
I wonder if the illegal alien sex offender was
the intern in charge of booking Sen Mendenez's Dominican travel!

[ Parent ]
PA-13: Schwartz gets on Ways and Means (again)
http://www.philly.com/philly/b...

Schwartz previously had a seat on the committee but lost it in 2011 when Republicans took control of the House and Democrats became the minority on each committee. She will re-join the panel in January when the new Congress is sworn in. A seat opened up because of retirements.


27, R, PA-07.


Schwartz
Being the ranking member on Budget and being on Ways and Means rarely is a combination that leads to giving up your seat.

Has anyone heard what assignments Cartwright has received?  Seeing there are 3 outgoing Democrats, there are plenty of Pennsylvania seats at the table.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
That is quite something
As you've said, she is next in line to become Chairman of the Budget Committee and Ways and Means is a very powerful committee, too. You don't jump away from that if you're not 100% sure that you can win.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
PA redistricting wonders part XXVII
Obama 52% in (R) Tom Marino's part of Lackawanna Co PA (Scranton), 68% in (D) Matt Cartwright's. - Giroux

26, Male, R, NY-10

Marino too safe
PA-10 barely has any other blue territory.  He should have been given much more of the Scranton area - either it saves Holden in a primary (much better than Cartwright) or it makes PA-17 potentially competitive if Holden loses.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
He got 66%, Highest of any R.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Thank Sherwood's idiocy
The PAGOP was gun-shy that having lost the seat once it was idiot-proofed this cycle  

[ Parent ]
Yes
People also don't understand how divided the county parties are against each other in the region.  The Dems held the seat in 2008 as the Republican primary was so hideous that the losing candidate's supporters openly backed Carney in large numbers.  This district like no other has to be idiot proof.

Pretty much everyone except me is shocked Holden lost to this day.  Nobody expected Cartwright to successfully challenge him.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Uh...
I'm not going to complain about a map that went 13R-5D in a state Obama won comfortably...a bird in hand is better than two in the bush, as they say.

[ Parent ]
Its hard to un-pack though
The really Republican parts of the district are in the Central part of the state.  The easiest way to crack the 17th would therefore be to draw a Schuylkill-Harrisburg-CentralPA district, a Williamsport-Scranton district taking the North-Central part of the state, and then a backwards C district taking Southern Luzerne and wrapping around Scranton to the North.

The problem with that is that Holden would have won his district in that map, and Barletta wasn't exactly secure enough in his previous district to soak up that much new territory.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Actually, it's very easy
Harrisburg was shoved into the York district, so that doesn't matter.  

Give Marino all of the Lackawanna Valley except Scranton proper.  Don't even have to bother Barletta.  In exchange, the 17th gets the rest of Monroe and perhaps some of Pike or Wayne.  Marino is still at 55% McCain or so, while the 17th goes down to 55% Obama - still lean D but within reach (more than Kanjorski's district was, and we won that one!).  It would be easy enough to make the 17th even less D at the cost of weakening Dent (drop the arm to Easton) or Barletta (less of Wilkes-Barre area) or Marino (split Scranton).  


[ Parent ]
It's amazing
That theoretically they could have aimed for 14-4 if they were willing to weaken Barletta and Marino.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
SC-Sen; Haley wants a fighter and Mulvaney won't challenge Graham or House colleague
http://www2.wjbf.com/news/2012...

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Graham
Am I wrong in guessing that South Carolina Republicans have a very positive view of Graham and they might rally behind him if he is attacked from the outside?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I think it depends on who the challenger is
But, my guess is that the process of an open primary is what will ultimately scare tougher challengers from stepping forward. I would think that in a closed primary, Graham would attract a strong Republican challenger.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Mulvaney quote about Graham
sums up what I have been saying.
"Lindsey is a lot more conservative than probably people in the national press give him credit for... Lindsey's reputation back home is strong. He's very well liked."

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Exactly
I have been sensing this for awhile.  The anger towards Graham is purely an outside of South Carolina thing.  South Carolina Republicans seem to judge their own by their own metrics, which I respect greatly.  Outside opinion should not matter in terms of picking candidates.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Unless that person is Gingrich
Ugh SC.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I'm one that would consider voting
for a more conservative primary challenger, but I've said on here repeatedly that Graham is popular with a broad segment of the primary electorate in SC and the open primary makes beating him very difficult. As we are seeing, even Tom Davis, who is not that formidable of a challenger, is not sure he wants to waste his time against Graham.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
That was my thought in Indiana as well
All the anger I heard directed at Lugar was from outside the state. Then again, Graham has fewer bad votes than Lugar so he starts in a stronger position. It's also telling that Mulvaney is defending him while the Indiana delegation was very hesitant to help Lugar out this year.

[ Parent ]
Lugar
Openly p*ssed on Indiana. Graham is very visible in SC.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yes
I think the better comparison is McCain.  Someone whose has a national profile of upsetting conservatives, but does not have the problem back home.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
That was also immediately after 2010 however
They might have just been feeling paranoid at that point, I don't know how much that actually has to do with those congressman being well tuned to IN's statewide Republican primary electorate.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Othe than the most conservative type Republicans
and Tea Party types, Graham is viewed as a mainstream conservative in SC. Those who view him as insufficiently conservative here are a distinct minority of Republicans. I read about and see this more nationally than I do at home, and I've talked to many dozens of Republicans here about Graham.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Bruce Castor supports RTW
According to his Facebook page where he rarely makes policy pronouncements outside being a county commissioner.  I wonder if Corbett flip flops now.

28, Republican, PA-6

Does this help him (Castor) in the primary?


Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
I don't see how it could hurt
A majority of Republicans in the state almost certainly support it.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
You would think
But I was under the impression that Republican's in PA were more open to unions than Republican's practically anywhere else.

Saint Paul (MN-4)  

[ Parent ]
yeah I mean it might
be 1/3 of Republicans oppose RTW, which is high compared to nationally.  But I doubt it's a majority, especially since many of the pro-union "Republicans" are conservaDems and many of the anti-union "Democrats" are moderate/liberal Republicans.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Agree
It depends really how Castor frames it.  If he supports something like we have seen in Michigan with a strong exemption for police and firefighters, I don't think it is an issue.  Those are the only two unions that have a good measure of pull in a Republican primary.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Depends on Corbett's reaction nt


23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Search




Advanced Search


(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox