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Evening Political Roundup for December 12, 2012

by: James_Nola

Wed Dec 12, 2012 at 16:39:22 PM EST

SC-Sen A, B: Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R) says he won't challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham in the Republican primary and he also will not challenge any of his House colleagues if Gov. Nikki Haley chooses one for DeMint's seat.

Gubernatorial Elections: Governing magazine takes a look at the 2013-2014 Gubernatorial cycle and they find that Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Virginia are the second tier of competitive elections, after Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Rhode Island. Of these, only 5 are currently held by Democrats while 9 are Republican-held.

PA-Gov: Add another Democrat to the list of people looking to challenge Gov. Tom Corbett: SWPA Sen. Tim Solobay.

IL-02: Chicago Alderman Sandi Jackson, wife of Jesse Jr., will not run in the special election to succeed her husband.

James_Nola :: Evening Political Roundup for December 12, 2012
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Any list of vulnerable Governors without Quinn or Malloy
Is Biased Stupidity  

They were in the "most vulnerable" category yesterday
along with Chafee, LePage, and Scott. Look for the link. I'm a bit skeptical of the inclusion of Brownback but everything else seems legit.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Is Brownback actually vulnerable?

R - MD-7

Doubt it
There were some polls last year showing him with a low approval rating, but they seemed pretty suspect(I believe they also showed Romney only winning the state by high single digits.)

43, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
IL-Gov: Rumor mill
So, I've been hearing from the rumor mill that wealthy venture capitalist  Bruce Rauner is very seriously considering a run for governor as a Republican and will be backed by some IL GOP power players.

To learn more about him...


Rauner used to live in Winnetka and now lives in Chicago. His wife has been a big donor to liberal causes for years.

I'm also hearing Bill Brady wants to run again (sigh), Aaron Schock is legitimately heavily considering, and that Dan Rutherford and Kirk Dillard are also all but in. Can you say "clown car" once again?

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

One more name...
Takin' his time,
Usin' his line,
Tryin' to decide what to do.
Looks at his job,
Don't wanna quit now,
Got himself hung up on Congress.
Seems to me,
Joe really wants to talk about it...
Seems to me,
He just opens his mouth and
Blasts away

That's right, folks: Joe Walsh.

Joe Walsh is also heavily considering a run for governor, according to sources close to him. He would be act very divisively in a statewide primary...

From IL-09, familial roots in MI-14, college in PA-02/07, and working for the summer in DC-AL.

Andy Hill for WA-Governor!

[ Parent ]
Joe Walsh should run for something else
Lt. Governor (He could win a primary there)
8th Congressional District (He was within 10% with Obama on the ballot, Duckworth probably coasts without Walsh's challenge)
9th Congressional District (Move back to Winnetka and make for a battle royal against Comrade Jan)
10th Congressional District (Move back to the North Shore and run if Dold opts for something else)
31st Senate District (Move a couple townships over and run because Suzi Schmidt was an idiot)
US Senate (If Durbin sticks around and scares every one off, it would again be worth it for entertainment value)

Baker '14
R, MA-3

[ Parent ]
Romney did better in IL-3, 42.6%, than he did in IL-8, 10, 11, or 17. Of course McCain did too and Romney's improvement over McCain was actually smaller than in the first three. I doubt it's in any danger but there are some good Republican areas in there.

This really was a great gerrymander. Romney improved over McCain by 6.2 points in Republican districts, but only 3.8 in the competitive districts. Of course he only improved by 1.4 in the core Democratic districts. A great gerrymander is one where not only do you do well now but you predict correctly the areas which are going to move toward the other party. They did that.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen; First challenger steps forward, a former congressional candidate

30/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Marco Rubio For President!

Some Dude, really

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Communitarian, Civic Nationalist, Democrat, Francophile.

I'll become a conservative when America becomes a meritocracy

[ Parent ]
Amash p*sses on Boehner

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

So last night was a special state legislative election for Alabama's 30th State House District. The district is located in Etowah and St. Clair Counties, (suburbs of Birmingham). Its a deep red district on all levels (last Democrat to represent this district at the state leg level was in '94). But the Republican, Beth McGlaughn only won 53-47 last night.

Kind of interesting what a special legislative election can do.

Anyway, looking ahead to 2014, the GOP should gain another seat or so in the Alabama Senate and potentially a few more seats in the Alabama House of Representatives. The Democrats have no qualified candidates to put up for any offices whatsoever. The only "if" is Former Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom, who could run again.

Funny coincidence
I was sitting next to guy who's from the Etowah County portion of this district (Walnut Grove) on a plane from Atlanta to Richmond a few weeks ago.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Wasn't turnout like 12%?
We have learnt by now that special elections are just weird.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
Not sure, but yeah, specials are weird
Just interesting to think how weird they are.

[ Parent ]
13% actually

Only about 3,500 people voted.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
Mack Butler is the R

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!

[ Parent ]
Another factor to look at here
is the fact that this seat hasn't been open for awhile. The previous holder of the seat, Blaine Galliher was elected as a Democrat in 1994 and 1998, switched parties in 2001, and then was unopposed for re-election in 2002 and 2006 and only had nominal opposition in 2010. I'm guessing Republicans will hold the seat easily in 2014.

43, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Republicans will hold this seat easily in 2014
They don't have any vulnerable incumbents, as far as I can see.

[ Parent ]
SD04, calif special election
some information about SD04, in anticipation of the coming special election

Online counts report

TOTAL 473,015 266,666
PHONE (LAND LINE) 286,200 159,540
PHONE (MOBILE) 54,331 45,411
DEMOCRATS 161,463 115,545
REPUBLICANS 191,898 126,528
ALL OTHER (NOT DEM OR REP) 119,611 93,717
INDEPENDENT 111,405 88,173
GREEN 2,977 2,786
PEACE & FREEDOM 1,473 1,426
LIBERTARIAN 3,576 3,358
DECLINE TO STATE 93,181 75,494
MISC. (UNKNOWN) 2,630 2,418
PURE DEM 106,317 72,449
PURE GOP 133,841 82,490
MALE 209,624 177,013
FEMALE 240,522 203,245
GENDER UNKNOWN 22,869 20,927
AGE 18-24 52,489 42,816
AGE 25-34 71,751 57,564
AGE 35-44 67,551 53,634
AGE 45-54 85,601 68,171
AGE 55-64 87,188 68,938
AGE 65+ 108,435 81,683
HOMEOWNER 276,118 159,145
MOBILE HOME 6,591 4,753
RENTER (PROBABLE) 57,586 43,518
EMAIL (REGISTRAR) 42,938 35,849
EMAIL (ENHANCED) 44,041 41,169
FOREIGN BORN 53,040 39,395
US BORN 417,781 245,728
LATINO 46,213 30,905
ASIAN (COMPOSITE) 14,391 10,073
CHINESE 1,527 1,097
FILIPINO 3,853 2,693
JAPANESE 1,818 1,320
KOREAN 709 516
VIETNAMESE 1,266 781
ARMENIAN 671 426
EAST INDIAN 6,183 2,972
JEWISH 5,827 3,963
PERMANENT VBM (PAV) 255,248 168,620
REG BEFORE 2/08 328,603 204,887
REG 2/08 - 11/08 31,672 27,706
REG 11/08 - 11/10 33,637 29,551
REG 11/10 - 6/12 35,431 30,588
REG AFTER 6/12 43,672 36,056
VOTED 11/04 GENERAL 260,152 169,425
VOTED 11/05 SPECIAL 201,577 134,128
VOTED 6/06 PRIMARY 155,920 105,533
VOTED 11/06 GENERAL 222,857 146,124
VOTED 2/08 PRIMARY (PRES.) 211,788 139,657
VOTED 6/08 PRIMARY 123,435 84,630
VOTED 11/08 GENERAL 308,664 192,239
VOTED 5/09 SPECIAL 141,902 95,713
VOTED 6/10 PRIMARY 174,797 115,071
VOTED 11/10 GENERAL 271,652 170,939
VOTED 6/12 PRIMARY 180,881 117,379
VOTED 3 OF 3 (6/10 - 6/12) 127,609 85,924
VOTED 3 OF 4 (5/09 - 6/12) 155,406 103,410
UNIVERSE 12G1 270,532 170,233
UNIVERSE 12G2 277,847 173,940
UNIVERSE 12G3 310,495 191,015
UNIVERSE 12G4 326,742 199,498
UNIVERSE 12G4A 333,278 202,987
UNIVERSE 12G4B 373,786 224,495
UNIVERSE 12G4C 404,823 238,609
UNIVERSE 12G5 344,472 208,192
UNIVERSE 12G5A 384,980 229,196
UNIVERSE 12G5B 392,697 233,007
UNIVERSE 12G5C 422,870 246,034
UNIVERSE 12G5D 431,418 249,429

To those unfamiliar with PDI
the two numbers next to the categories indicate voters and then houses.

below is a map of CA-SD-04

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, AD57 GOP Central Committee Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President

[ Parent ]
Wont this election be held under the old lines, since it is a special election to fill a seat elected in 2010?

[ Parent ]
you're absolutely right.

Here's the lines for the old SD-04 (as compared with the '91 lines)

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, AD57 GOP Central Committee Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President

[ Parent ]
Counts Report is from the New SD-04
So the above data isn't going to mean much till 2014...wonder if coulda, butte, etc have at partisan data.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, AD57 GOP Central Committee Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President

[ Parent ]
Good read
How RTW came to pass in MI.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


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