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Political Roundup for December 14, 2012

by: shamlet

Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:00:00 AM EST


No earth-shattering developments, but there's lots and lots of little nuggets of news for your Friday.

Senate:

MA-Sen: John Kerry looks very likely to be the next SoS as Susan Rice bows to her unconfirmability and withdraws her name. The decision would set up a special election where outgoing Sen. Scott Brown could run; in recent days he's seemed increasingly open to that possibility, though it seems to me at least that a Gubernatorial bid would be a better fit.

More MA-Sen: Quirky former Gov. Bill Weld (R) has abruptly burst back onto the political scene, mere days after repatriating to Cambridge from New York. After being a nonentity in MA politics for 15 years (and even running for NY Governor in 2006) Weld is now giving interviews to any reporter that will sit still. It doesn't take a lot of dot-connecting to see he's very interested in running for Kerry's seat again. Though Weld has said he would defer to Scott Brown if he wanted to return to the Senate, Weld would be a strong Plan B for Republicans if Brown opts to run for Governor.

NE-Sen: Former Sen. Chuck Hagel ("R"-NE) is likely to be Obama's SecDef nominee, possibly setting up an awkward situation for Sens. Mike Johanns and Deb Fischer. Hagel endorsed Kerrey over Fischer last year and has had strained relations with the rest of the NEGOP over his leftward lurch.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Joe Walsh may run against Dick Durbin; unless the incumbent retires no Republican is likely to have much of a chance here so I'd be fine with him going for it. He's also considering a run for Governor, which could be problematic for the GOP's good chances of picking up the seat.

SC-Sen (Class III): Stephen Colbert was "vetted" by Haley for the Senate appointment. 

WATN: In an exit interview of sorts, KBH details her thoughts on her Senate career and her unsuccessful run for Texas Governor in 2010.

House:

IL-2: Heading into tomorrow's Democratic pseudo-convention to designate a standard-bearer, opponents are ganging up on front-running State Sen. Donne Trotter (D-Chicago) over his arrest for attempting to board an airplane with a gun.

Governor:

AZ-Gov: Jan Brewer (R) is making some noise about challenging AZ's term limits law so that she can run again in 2014. Even if she did succeed in gaining the right to try again, it's far from guaranteed she'd win - or even clear a primary field of the half-dozen or so folks being talked about as potential candidates for the open seat.

TN-Gov: State House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh (D-Ripley) is considering a (sacrificial lamb) run for Governor, as a new Vanderbilt poll shows Gov. Haslam with a massive 68% approval rating.

MI-Gov: Michigan Dems have significant bench problems, as most of their big names started their political careers in the 1960s (and at least one of the others started in the 50s). Here's a set of mini-profiles of 4 people who are young enough to think about challenging Snyder.

SC-Gov: A recap on this race, where State Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D-Camden) is licking his chops for a rematch of his 2010 bid against Haley.

It also seems that it's time to celebrate Weird Gubernatorial Internal Poll Day!

Part 1 - VA-Gov: Gov. Bob McDonnell releases an internal poll showing Cuccinelli (R) behind McAuliffe (D) by one point, 43-42. Why the governor felt the need to release that I don't know.

Part 2 - AR-Gov: AG Dustin McDaniel (D) releases a poll showing him a strong favorite in a D primary, as expected... but also quite weak in a general election, losing to former Rep. and 2006 R nominee Asa Hutchinson and leading LG Mark Darr based on name rec.

Part 3 - FL-Gov: Someone commissioned a Crist vs. Sink D primary poll, and it showed Crist crushing 2010 Gov nominee Sink 55-34, with strong faves among Democrats. It's anyone's guess who would commission this poll and why, but the pollster says it's not someone closely connected to Crist or Sink.

State & Local:

NY-SD-14, etc: Democrats are already starting to test the waters for primary challengers to the 6 Coalition Democrats. The one who seems to be in the most danger is Malcolm Smith (ID-Jamaica, Queens), who may draw a challenge from city councilman Leroy Comrie in his heavily D, black-majority seat. Primary challengers to the other Senators are complicated by the fact that they represent relatively swingy districts and could probably win re-election on the Republican line if necessary; however, Brooklyn D chair Frank Seddio announced his interest in challenges to Coalition Dems Simcha Felder of Boro Park and Diane Savino, whose seat includes Bensonhurst.

MS-LD-48: State Rep. Jason Malone of West, in the delta region, has switched parties from D to R a year after his first election to the chamber. His district was made more conservative in redistricting.

UT-LD-69: Recently defeated State Rep. Christine Watkins of Price is switching from D to R, though she sounds downright Specterian about her party switch. Watkins openly admits that her new label is to help her win the seat back iin 2014 via a primary/convention challenge to the man who ousted her based on little more than his party ID, Rep-elect Jerry Anderson (R).

NC-Dem Party: Embattled NCDP chair David Parker won't seek a second term, after astoundingly having his resignation refused by the state committe earlier this year amidst a harassment scandal. Outgoing State Sen. Eric Mansfield of Fayetteville, who lost a bid for LG in the primary, is the strong favorite to succeed him.

MN-GOP: Things are slowly starting to return to sanity for the long-discombobulated Minnesota GOP, which is beginning to pay down its crushing 7-figure debt. However, there is more internal strife emerging in the party over how to conduct primary elections and if the binding convention endorsement should retain its importance.

MI-RTW: A very interesting and worthwhile read on the process of passing Right to Work in Michigan.

shamlet :: Political Roundup for December 14, 2012
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VA-Gov
does McDonnell have a preferred candidate over the Attorney General? I always thought the two had a good working and ideological relationship. This kind of poll his screams of a shot across his bow to get out of the race.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

In short
Yes. I'm quite confident Bolling would unsuspend his campaign if Cuccinelli exits the race.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
VA-Gov
I think either Bolling or Cuccinelli would win.  I would slightly prefer Cuccinelli.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

[ Parent ]
Thanks for a very nice update!
This is much worse than Specter. Extremely dumb statement.

"It's not leaving the party to leave it. It's switching to be able to have a chance at winning again," she said


25, Male, R, NY-10

Minnesota 2014
This is going to be a busy cycle in the Land if 10,000 Lakes.

1. The state GOP absolutely MUST get their act together in order to get back on track. The million-dollar debt simply isn't doing to encourage donors. Sutton's tenure really did put a dagger in the heart of the party, and it will take several years to right that ship, at minimum.

2. The Republicans really are going to have to hope the DFL shoots themselves in the foot. The DFL controls absolutely everything in the state except the supreme court. If the DFL is seen as overreaching their mandate after being given all the keys in the first time in decades, that will open up a gap for the Republicans to exploit. But really the Republicans can't so anything right now but watch and grumble as the DFL gets to pass their agenda, and hope it either doesn't work, or upsets voters.

3. There are 5 statewide offices up for election in 2014. The DFL dis a good job staving off retirements and office hopping, but that means that all of the incumbents are on retirement watch. Franken is certainly going to run again, and he has kept his head down and his approvals up, so he may not garner a top-tier challenger from an exceptionally thin GOP bench. Dayton's reelection chances are going to be based on what the agenda is over the next 2 years, and how effective he is at enacting it. Lori Swanson is a shoo-in for a third term if she wants it, but she deeply wants to be governor, and that job is already taken. Swanson is the unquestioned #1 statewide prospect for the DFL for governor or senate. Mark Richie has been high-profile as SOS, but has been seen as effective and generally fair in a position where partisanship is easy and dangerous. Richie, if he runs, will be the prohibitive favorite for a 3rd term. Rebecca Otto is far and away the weakest of the statewide office holders. Yes, she won in 2010, but only just. I think the Republicans have a good shot at breaking the 15-1 losing streak statewide if she runs again. For the DFL, it'd be better if she hung it up after 8 years.

4. Last and most importantly is retirement and open-seat watch. Will Kline want to stay in the house after his 3 terms as Education chairman are up? Will Paulsen smell blood and challenge Franken/Dayton? Will Peterson call it quits after 24 years in Washington? lots of questions...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Otto
Why is she considered ineffective?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Auditor Otto
ineffective isn't the word I would use. ineffectual may be a more appropriate description. The average voter doesn't know what the state auditor does, and frankly even I am a bit sketchy on the exact job description, and I know St.  Paul pretty well. She is seen as a lazy campaigner and not really an overly nice likable person. And as Auditor, there is just an inherent lack of tangible deliverables to point to on a person's record. And that goes for auditors in general, not just her. The GOP smelled blood with her after her narrow victory in 06 and seriously challenged her in 10, in spite of giving Richie and Swanson more or less of a pass because they weren't doing to get beat.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
TX-13
Was R+33 this year. Over 80% Romney. TX-11 will be close.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Definitely
The reddest in the nation. Beats out UT-3. It's also fundamentally much redder.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It's redder than TX-30 EBJ is blue
Romney's margin there more than cancels out Obama's margin in AA part of Dallas.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
TX-23
According to preliminary numbers, Romney won the district by about 3 points, from Obama by 1 in 2008. Same swing as the state as a whole, which is surprising because Obama gained in all the other heavily Hispanic districts, but here it might be countered by conservative whites that trended the other way.

No excuse for Canseco to lose by 4 in a Romney district. Gallego might be a strong candidate and Canseco made some stupid mistakes, but Gallego has a giant target on his back and in a midterm with lower Hispanic turnout he would be extremely vulnerable.

25, Male, R, NY-10


TX-23
By presidential numbers, it might appear to be a Republican-leaning swing seat. The thing is, so was Gallego's state house seat. Unfortunately, I have little confidence that we can beat him, even in a midterm, given he won his state house seat (which in its 2000s iteration, voted for McCain) in 2010.

Also, I want to address the last part of this comment, and ask that you be very careful what you say, given that we Texas Republicans have been burned in the courtroom several times by someone saying the wrong thing. The last thing we need are the Democrats' lawyers finding your comment, twisting its meaning, and using it as some sort off "proof" of...something. Given that it could hurt the party, I would ask that the moderators consider deleting it before it gets indexed.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


[ Parent ]
Really?
The analysis of a Jewish guy in NYC on an internet forum is going to be twisted and used in court by the Texas Democrats.  They could always try it, but I suspect any judge whose not a rabid Democratic partisan already would not be convinced by such evidence.  The objectivity of such a judge would be in question anyway.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Yeah. I would also think any judge who's that partisan
would find justification for the ruling no matter what. If it wouldn't be that comment, it would be something else trivial.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
The State Senate Map
In the trial over preclearance of the State Senate map, the judges denied preclearance because while they admitted that Wendy Davis had failed to provide any actual evidence of discriminatory intent, and that the emails that she subpoenaed never revealed any discriminatory intent w/r/t the State Senate map. However, they ruled in her favor, stating that there was "circumstantial evidence" of discriminatory intent. Considering that their reasoning here was incredibly weak, that is why I showed concern over Moshe's comment.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Christie loss scenario
I am not sure if this has been posted before (if so I apologize).

http://www.politickernj.com/61...

I am not sure I agree with this guy's assessment but he does make some reasonable assumptions based on many past election in NJ.  History doesn't necessarily repeat and I am not sure that Kean 1985 or Whitman 1997 will be good analogies for Christie 2013.  All 3 incumbents are very different in style and 2013 is not really like 85 or 97.  

I was a NY resident in 1997 but I followed the governor's election and I remember being amazed that deep anger over auto insurance was pushing Whitman's reelect numbers down by the week as election day neared.  That might have been part of it but the late break to the Dems was also likely part of it.  

36, Republican, NJ-11  


The 6%
That Sabrin and Pezzullo got nearly cost Whitman.  She was getting hit hard from the right in the fall.  These were voters who usually voted R and they bled her victory from mid single digits to 1%.  I can't see Christie having a similar issue, but you never know.  

[ Parent ]
Christie Reelection
   Christie in not the anti-conservative nuisance that Whitman was.  I do not see him losing 6% to third-party candidates.  Rick Santorum messed up by stumping for Whitman in 1997.  He lost any chance of becoming "Mr. Conservative" on a nationwide scale.
  Republicans tend to win VA and NJ governor races when a Democrat is in the White House, and I do not see 2013 being an exception.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

[ Parent ]
Social conservative argument making
http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

I think is a big problem for social conservatives.  Instead of arguing things like gay marriage from a rational perspective, i.e. facts and statistics, they have given a completely emotional/faith based argument.

28, Republican, PA-6


Well
It's a fact that it is so.
What problem do I have with SSM other than religion?
Abortion has nothing to do with religion even though religion prohibits it too.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
A few try to make secular arguements.
I do. To be brief, I mostly base my arguement on the privileges of civil marriage being intended to foster strong families with children.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It is a problem
Some swing states have 20% or more of their population claiming no religion. While a number of those voters would be D regardless, there's certainly some slice that could be peeled off.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  

[ Parent ]
PPP Michigan
PPP tweeted last night saying that their first night of polling showed Snyder's approval ratings have dropped "precipitously" and RTW would be overturned in a referendum if it was on the ballot.    

Huh
I saw a 11/6/12 poll of 4.6 million extremely likely Michigan voters that were in favor of allowing the legislature to pass RTW 57% to 43%.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in...

33, R, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Thats like saying a likely 2006 Poll of Arizona Voters
Showed Gay Marriage winning 56-44. Voting not to enshrine an overly broad constitutional amendment prohibiting X does not indicate support for passing it.

I actually suspect that Proposition would be a lot closer right now.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Did they suddenly change their mind?
Last month these people helped Obama win by 9.5% and defeated the collective bargaining amendment by 14.8%.

I wonder if PPP asked how people voted on that amendment and what their question wording was on this one?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
No
I think people are mistaken if they think the failure of proposal 2 means MI voters don't support collective bargaining.  Many saw the proposal as an overreach by special interests and didn't think changing the Constitution was necessary.

There's a reason that an appropriation was attached to the RTW legislation to prevent a referendum.  


[ Parent ]
I'm guessing we'll find out soon enough
It takes 258,000 petition signatures to get it on the ballot through the legislative initiative process (since it doesn't qualify for a routine referendum). There are 670,000 union workers in Michigan. It's safe to say it'll get put on the ballot.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Of those 670,000 union members
How many voted against the ballot measure last month and/or voted for Romney?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Exactly
We already had a ballot test on this issue last November and it failed by 14 points.  That is a clear mandate to act in my opinion.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Not really
It was a clear mandate not to change anything. Whether it was also a mandate to take a given action is debatable, and now we'll likely find out whether Michigan voters agree with the action that was taken.

Look, I'm not saying that RTW will be overturned when all is said and done, but there is a key difference with Prop 2. The main reason why Prop 2 failed, or at least why it failed so spectacularly, is because it would've repealed 170 Michigan labor laws, including some child labor laws, and invalidated other provisions of the Michigan constitution. It was obviously a self-immolating overreach by the unions. It doesn't, however, directly follow that a majority of Michigan voters support the RTW laws. They might, but the rejection of Prop 2 doesn't prove that they do.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
About 40%
According to polls, which leaves 402,000 or so union members that could sign the petitions. Of course, petition signatures aren't limited to union members, it's just that you have a built in structure, pretty much guaranteed actually, for swiftly gathering the needed signatures. The only reason why it may not happen is if the unions feel that they cannot put it on the ballot in a way that will succeed.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
We all saw
How it went in WI. Big rage which faded and faded and faded...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin
Doesn't have provisions for citizen-initiated ballot referendums.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
They essentially had two of them though
Don't tell me that the people who cared about overturning Wisconsin's law didn't show up to vote for Kloppenberg and Barrett. Wisconsin voters twice approved of their state's law.

[ Parent ]
This has been analyzed
In exhausting detail, so I'm not sure what there is to be gained from retreading old ground. A decisive number of Wisconsin voters felt that a recall should be used only in the case of actual corruption, not as a response to the regular legislative process. Moreover, voting to recall Walker meant voting to have Barrett for governor, which meant more than just voting on whether collective bargaining should be curtailed.

If you want to draw a direct parallel between the Wisconsin recall and a straight-up Michigan ballot vote on whether to keep RTW, that's fine by me. But, as someone else already noted, there's a reason why the legislature attached an appropriations measure to prevent a basic referendum. I guess we'll find out whether that was an unnecessary precaution.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Eh Bad Proxies
Kloppenberg was clearly unqualified for the job, which is something even most of her supporters admitted, Prosser had done nothing objectionable, and she was basically running on being a partisan hack in a way that in normal circumstances would have repelled all swing voters. That she got 49.9% is a pretty clear sign that had the Reforms been on the ballot with her, there is almost no way they would have survived.

Arguably, I think had Walker also been on the ballot then he might have had a lot more trouble than he did 14 months later.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
It had the Walker recall
Similar idea.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yes. Short-term, polls will probably show RTW losing...
due to the anger.

However, as the weeks and months roll by and as the anger fades, RTW will probably be ahead in time for 2014.

They could only muster 12-15,000 protestors In Lansing; 100,000+ in Madison.


[ Parent ]
Exactly
The OUTRAGE! over this will subside quickly. Initial polls showed Prop 2 winning handily too. If this comes to a citizens' referendum, there will be a year of advertisements prior to the 2014 election, and RTW allies will win out.

[ Parent ]
My guess
This will probably be decided based on what happens in Michigan so far as job creation and wages over the next couple years. It may have nothing whatsoever to do with RTW, but that's the cudgel that will be used by whatever side's argument it ultimately favors. If Michigan creates jobs and wages hold up fine, for whatever reason, then RTW will all but surely be upheld. If Michigan doesn't create jobs, or loses jobs, or if wages can be characterized as stagnant or declining, then RTW is all but surely gone in 2014.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Thoughts
I agree that the Michigan Prop. 2 was a clear overreach. It basically unionized every public and private company in Michigan. From ballotpedia:

Define "employer" as a person or entity employing one or more employees.

Imagine having to comply with union rules of health and pension benefits if you have one part-time employee.

Of course it's the closest thing we have to get the feeling of Michigan voters. And it's unlikely that any electorate voting on this will be nearly as Democratic as that one.

By many accounts the reforms Scott Walker put in worked. Yet the unions said the opposite. I doubt there can be any sort of definitive evidence that'll convince opponents that right-to-work was successful.

They attached an appropriation for the same reason the Ohio redistricting bill did. If you do that, the bill can't be put up for a referendum. If it is, you could lose. That doesn't mean they think it will lose. So if you have a 100% chance of winning, you take it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Back in Feb-March 2011
Support for Walker's collective bargaining changes was in the 30%-39% approval range.

A year later, in the recall exit poll, support rose to 52%


[ Parent ]
Remember the Christie 33% approval ?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Current intensity levels
Pols are always unpopular in lame duck.

I'd be more interested in polls once things settle down, unions aren't gone, collective bargaining isn't dead, etc.

Nothing would be done ballot wise at least till August at the earliest and that's if things start immediately.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
No SC-Senate announcement today
Jim Demint said there would be but Haley's office says there won't be.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Vicki Kennedy as placeholder?
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/po...

It's midway down the page

ABC'S JONATHAN KARL: The President has not made a choice on his next nominee for Secretary of State yet, but Governor Deval Patrick is already making plans to fill presumptive SecState nominee John Kerry's Senate seat. Knowledgeable sources tell me Governor Patrick has already had a discussion with one potential replacement for Senator Kerry:  Vicki Kennedy.  


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Open seat, insert Kennedy
I wonder if we'll still be doing this in 2112?

[ Parent ]
Maybe even more than a placeholder
There's no law that says the appointee can't run even though it's discouraged.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Latest on NY Legislature
Some cracks may be appearing already in the NY Repub-IDC Coalition that is set to control the NY State Senate.  While Gov Cuomo and IDC leader Klein have come out with a laundry list of Dem-leaning agenda items that they expect the State Senate to pass, Repub leader Skelos has pointed out that there has been no agreement yet on what agenda items are to be passed.  I think Skelos may be feeling some heat from the NY Conservative Party and business supporters, particularly after Cuomo and Klein implied that their agenda list would be passed by the State Senate.  Cuomo in turn has indicated his "support" (if you want to call it that) for the Repub-IDC coalition may wane if the State Senate doesn't pass his agenda items.  He of course is under pressure from non-IDC Dems in the State Senate because of his lack of opposition to the coalition deal. Stay tuned.  

And lets not forget the endless ballot count for control of NYSD46, the seat that was supposed to be an easy pickup for Republican George Amedore(who currently has an 111 vote lead).  It appears that out of 887 contested ballots the judge has accepted 385 (meaning about 57% got tossed out). However, I think there are at least 29 ballots (mainly in Ulster County)where checks are being made on residency due to Republican challenges and I doubt these checks are finished yet.  So that could affect the total amount of ballots to be opened.  In addition, when the ballots are opened some may be tossed because of voter error on the ballot itself or because no entry has been made for the State Senate race.  The judge has ordered the ballots he has accepted to be opened for counting starting today, and this phase of the process should end by the middle of next week at the latest. Then there will likely be an appeal, which will probably push everything into January.  Although a lot of ballots have been tossed out I still think the odds favor the Dem, but if the Repubs get luckly and keep this seat their caucus will have a majority in the NY State Senate and can get by without the 5 IDC members.  


Amedore now favored
unless Tkaczyk can reverse the ruling(s) of 461 invalid ballots.

Ulster county counted all the 183 remaining valid ballots and they went only 128-55 to Tkaczyk. Remember that over 80% of the challenges were made by the GOP, so they were challenging more than a few of their own votes.  

Two other counties also counted remaining ballots, breaking for Amedore by 20.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Update - Amedore lead now 47 with 4 counties counted
In NYSD46 Repub Amedore leads by 47 votes (had been 111) with 4 of the 5 counties in the district having counted contested ballots (Albany, Schenectady, Montgomery and Ulster). Greene County, where I think there are around 125 votes to count, will look at the contested ballots Monday. How did this happen?  If you have been following my posts, you would have noted that I thought that Dem Tkaczyk had the edge and that Amedore had an outside chance only if a huge amount of ballots were thrown out, particularly in Ulster County.  Well Amedore's prayers were answered since over 300 ballots were thrown out in that county. Tkaczyk picked up 73 votes in Ulster, but it was not enough.  Greene County is Republican leaning; Amedore got 59% of the vote there.  Although there were more Rep contested ballot challenges than Dem ones in Greene Co., unlike Ulster the percent difference is not that huge.  Tkaczyk would have to get over 2/3 of the Greene Co contested ballots to pull ahead of Amedore Monday and I don't think that is likely.  So as you point out, unless the Appellate Division allows a number of the tossed out ballots to be counted on appeal, it looks like Amedore may win.  However, nothing is final until the appeal is settled - this will go into January.  

[ Parent ]
The NY Court of Appeals will ultimately decide this SD46 race
It has majority Republican judges, 4-3.  

[ Parent ]
Condolences to CT
What the hell is wrong with some people?  

25, Male, R, NY-10

What is wrong...
...is the guns remember? It's not the people. If only we had stronger gun control then things like this would never happen nevermind other methods of killing.

Does this incident affect Gov. Malloy's reelection prospects? Higher approval ratings perhaps?  

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
I'm not a gun freak
Nor a gun grabber. I still think that this gun that the guy used should be illegal. Handguns are perfectly ok by me.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It's a basic .223
A .223 is a fairly low powered rifle round. It's illegal in many states to use for deer hunting because it's not powerful enough. It's a common caliber for varmints.

Keep in mind that Connecticut already has strict gun controls. (Not NYC strict, but more than most of the country including so called "assault weapons" which is a BS term to begin with)

That gun 'looks' scary, but it's no different than a Ruger Mini 14.

If he used my deer rifle, a "non controversial" Remington 7400 (.30-06), it would have been even worse.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Great Example
http://www.courant.com/sns-rt-...
Just a few hours earlier on the other side of Earth some villager in central China came into an elementary school and slashed 22 children with knives.

Should we then ban combat/survival knives? Control ownership of knives? Register knife owners? People are going to kill with whatever they can get their hands on, and when they can't get a weapon they'll use their own bare hands.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
C'mon, y'all
Seriously? Let's not stoop to that level right now.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Poor Taste
All you're doing here is using sarcasm to create a controversy in light of tragedy. If liberals want to politicize this it's on them. No need for us to do that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Do not get me wrong
I am deeply disturbed by the tragedy, do not get me wrong. I am simply drawing a comparison from two deplorable tragedies on both sides of the Earth that people are going to kill, it's   something that humans have to deal with as part of their nature.

As for the creating controversy, the controversy has already been created. It's ALWAYS there. I stand by comments and will criticize anyone who does take this tragedy to call for gun control.  

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Your approach
We are all well aware of the inevitable arguments and you will get a lot of agreement here that we shouldn't take away everyone's guns. You approached the subject in a flippant sarcastic manner that is unnecessary at this time. What you're doing is taking this tragedy as a way of attacking the left over their views on gun control. It'd be in poor taste if they approach this in a sarcastic tone and is the same for us.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
In this day and age...
ideas and discussions are thrown around instantaneously, this is the reality of the 21st century internet.

You misinterpreted what my intent was, which was to denounce the Left's inevitable politicization of the attack. I am sick of it.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
It's "the 21st century"
You know, isn't that one of the justifications those who don't agree with your social views give for their social views? That's just such a cop out. There's a level of appropriateness in waiting until the dust has settled after a tragedy before questioning the policy that went wrong.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Again, misinterpretation.
The 21st century internet allows for ideas that normally would have taken days to occur withing hours if not minutes. This is not a new social norm, this is a speedier process of what happens. The condolences and prayers to the parents of SandyHook Elementary will always be there and I join them sincerely in that. What I am doing is attacking the inevitable politicization. Which as I type just happened with Piers Morgan and Michael Moore tweeting http://mobile.syracuse.com/adv...

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
*Excellent* food for thought
Headline: Why Betting You'll Win Minorities On Social Issues Is The GOP Cargo Cult.
By: Walter Olson, Senior Fellow at Cato

Here's a teaser:

If you've heard the Social Conservative Minority Realignment Thesis once, you've probably heard it a hundred times. It goes as follows. Blacks and Hispanics have religious views more conservative than the average voter's, yet today they overwhelmingly vote Democratic. If only they realized Republicans agree with them on issues like gay marriage and school prayer! The GOP somehow hasn't gotten out the message that it's the party truly in tune with religious values. Only by hammering away at social conservatism can the party win the black and Hispanic support that will ensure it majority status for years to come.

http://www.theblaze.com/contri...

The article goes on to excoriate Erick Erickson's use of this logical fallacy and explains how opposing gay marriage did nothing for the GOP in the heavily black wards of PG County this year, on any level.

I hope you'll take a few minutes to read this article. Even if you disagree with the premise, as it seems most of RRH does, you should at least respect what a Senior Fellow at Cato has to say.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07


It makes the general mistake of looking at years and issues in isolation
Minority voting patterns, all voting patterns for pretty much all minority groups everywhere in the world, are not generally defined by one candidate in one year on one issue preference, but built up over decades.

In the United States, the Liberal-African American alliance is  not based on individual issues, but on the fact that Liberals, whether Republican or Democratic, have been the only real allies of the African American Community since the 1850s. Conservative is the word Redemption Democrats adopted for themselves. When Republicans began to use the word, it meant the sell-out of Southern African Americans on Civil Rights, whether in the 1920s, or in the 1950s under Eisenhower, or in the 1960s when Goldwater and his successor built a Southern Republican party on resistance to Federal Power under the premise that Federal Power was inherently pro-African American. Even today, the African American community sees itself in a life or death struggle for its rights, where on Voter ID, redistricting, early voting, "Conservatives" are out to destroy them.

Now a lot of this may be paranoia but enough of it is, or was true to provide a widespread belief.

Within this context, African American Social Conservatives look upon the White Liberal fixation with Gay Marriage as wrong-headed, a bit eccentric, but not inherently harmful. At the same time they look upon "Social Conservatism" as as an evolution of the same arguments used against them in the 1970s, and run by the same people.

In effect African Americans don't see the linkage with the Civil Rights movement, are a bit offended by the presumption of Gay Rights activists, and will vote against them when they can. But they don't trust "White Social Conservatives" believe they oppose Gay Marriage for the wrong reasons, the same reasons they did oppose African American Civil Rights, and therefore will never in the near future make common cause.

In the grand scheme of things however, all of that stuff about "states rights", "federalism", "tenth amendment" are things they(rightly given history) view as devices to allow states to screw them without federal interference, and "conservative judges" are the people who do it.

Of course everyone already knows this about the African American community. The only way to genuinely win them over on Social Conservatism would be for Republicans to stop being the cultural party of Southern Whites which would in turn give the Democrats a chance to scoop up an economic alliance of poor whites and blacks in the south while the Republicans try to convince both groups that Gay Marriage is more important. Not happening, and not worth trying.

What is vital for the Republican party is preventing Hispanics from turning into African Americans. Hispanic partisan identification in my view has always tracked not issues, but the extent to which Hispanics tend to be viewed as a minority. When they are viewed as part of a wider political nation, as in 2004, they tend to split more evenly. When they are clearly being treated and viewed by everyone as a "minority" group, they tend to vote that way for weaker versions of many of the same reasons African Americans do so.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
agree with the last paragraph
The following groups were once considered minority groups but are now considered in a larger majority group:

Germans, Irish, Southern & Eastern Europe


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Why Obamacare just fails.
http://www.latimes.com/news/op...

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

Ohio GOP gets their supermajority - Al Landis declared the winner
Al Landis wins the recount and the counting of some provisional ballots

http://www.timesreporter.com/f...


RI-Gov
Chafee inching closer to Democrats. http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

I don't know what this means for us. If he wins the primary we have a very good chance at beating him, maybe even better than in a 3-way. If he joins and lose the primary our odds go down dramatically.

R - MD-7


I can't imagine he'd survive a Democratic primary
If he's dead-set on running, he's probably best off remaining an independent and hoping both sides run underwhelming candidates.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Problem is he'd probably come in 3rd in a 3-way
He could survive a clowncar D primary if both Tavares and Raimondo run.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
MA and Scott Brown
Brown will have about $200K left over in his failed Senate campaign(why he didn't spend everything is unclear), so I'd consider it more likely that he runs for Senate instead of Governor.
A wildcard in the whole equation is the Massachusetts Democrat Legislature. They twice changed the rules of succession in the past decade to benefit their own prospects(it bit them on the a** in 2010, though), and there are whispers they may change the law AGAIN--to allow the governor to appoint a replacement that serves out the rest of Kerry's term(which ends in 2014). That way they could circumvent the pesky voters, who may have other ideas.
Don't put anything past Massachusetts Democrats. With no GOP check on their power to speak of, they can--and will-do anything.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

Brown's Cash
he very possibly couldn't spend it all in time. $200K out of $30M or so is not enough to be a conscious decision to leave something behind, but probably a reflection of the fact that ads were running at saturation level since August.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Brown's spending
Brown raised $28.1 million and spent $34.4 million. He ended November with $464k C-O-H, about 2% of the money he raised. If his campaign is like most, he probably has outstanding invoices. I don't think we can fault Brown for not spending every dollar and running out with a week to go.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
His campaign recently said...
...that, after paying all the vendors, he'll have about 150-200K left over. Not a hell of a lot.
One thing is guaranteed: if he does run in a special election the MA Dems won't be caught by surprise again.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Brown will be tough to beat
He also won't be running against someone who raises $40 million or on the same day that people are turning out to vote for Obama. I'm sure Elizabeth Warren got help from the MA Democratic party but her support was national. Obama won MA by 23.2 and Warren won by 7.6. Obama + Warren + national progressives = perfect storm

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
All true, but....
...in 2010, Brown was the recipient of the perfect storm and he won by just 5 points. I can tell you that on the streets in the last few days before the special election, it felt like he was going to win by 10. The Dems were demoralized and already blaming Coakley; polls showed him up from +4 to +11. Early in the evening of the election people were chanting "blowout, blowout" at his HQ. The final margin was much closer than people expected.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Brown ran a 4-week campaign in 2009-2010
Week One: The Kennedy Ad
Week Two: Rasmussen Poll/Beginning of national focus
Week Three: Focus on Imploding Coakley Campaign
Week Four: Will it really happen?

At no point did the 2010 race genuinely turn on policy except for the Obamacare issue which was mainly used for fundraising. For the most part, the race was about Coakley's incapacity as a candidate, anger in Massachusetts at Deval Patrick for supporting Obama over Hillary in the 2008 Primary and Brown's personal charisma.

If Brown runs this time, he will be the person to beat from the start. The Democrats will be running to face him. As a consequence he will not be able to escape taking a position on the fiscal cliff, the Norquist Pledge(which he signed), the Debt Limit when it comes up again in March, and almost any other issue under the sun. The Newtown shooting will be tied to his statement about Scalia, and Democrats will run a campaign claiming Republicans favor abolishing Massachusetts gun laws.

There are so many issues where no middle ground exists that I think Brown will have real trouble with a June Special Election.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Brown faced all those issues this time
He's already been tested on Norquist, Scalia, and everything else you mention. In addition, he had to answer for every national Republican policy and candidate. He had to respond to Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, and Mitt Romney. It seemed strange to imagine a year ago, but Romney being from Massachusetts really hurt Brown. The "47% video" produced outrage Brown had to answer for.

And he still only lost by 7.6%. Warren got 53% when Obama got 61%. In a June special many of those voters will stay home. It's far more likely they'll be Warren voters than Brown voters, because she won't be running. He's got a great fundraising network and an experienced campaign operation. The Democrats, on the other hand, are likely to have a candidate who has no national fundraising network and may have to endure a primary.

In a 24 month campaign the Democrats could overcome this. But a 5 month campaign will be much tougher. if there's a contested Democratic primary, that'll be shorter. I can't see there not being a contested primary. There is no other seat to wait for.

Brown also has the advantage that voters know that him winning won't hand the senate to the Republicans. Warren is a progressive and the voters may want someone more centrist to balance that.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Well said
and that's why I think he doesn't run. Brown does not want to take positions on those issues because he's really far more conservative than his image. In a Governor race he won't have that problem because there's no way you can be too conservative as governor of Mass.

Add that to Charlie Baker's invisibility for the last few years, and Bill Weld shoving his face into any camera he can find, and it certainly looks like Brown is running for Governor.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
NY-21, IL-18, IL-Gov
Owens, Schock under investigation. http://www.rollcall.com/news/h...

When it comes to IL-Gov I'm probably in the "anybody but Schock" camp.

R - MD-7


MI-Gov
The bench isn't that strong, but there's a decent bench for a darkhorse.

Whitmer - That's their favorite. Granholm II.

Peters - They are probably setting things up for him for a big run. He's a rare white guy who won a black majority district.

Virg - He's a fairly popular mayor, but that's as far as he's likely going. He won't challenge Mike Rogers (they are friends from college) and would have a tough time in the open seat.

Mark Schauer - He doesn't have a lot to lose, but did lose re-election to Tim Walberg in the rematch.

-----------------------------------------
Others:

Mark Hackel - Probably the dream candidate. Macomb Executive.

Jocelyn Benson - The favorite for the far left progressive. They aren't giving up on her.



MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


MI-Gov: Who do you think is the dream GOP candidate
if Snyder decides to forego re-election?  

[ Parent ]
Not going to happen.
If it does, I'd like to see Mike Rogers run... and Kerry Bentivolio, too, just for the laughs associated.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Mike Rogers
I dont bet against Mike. I think Terri Lynn Land can win as well.

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Immigration reform
http://touch.latimes.com/#sect...

I think that I could support such a thing.  

25, Male, R, NY-10


GOP sources say it's Scott
New York Times reporting.

21, Thatcherite,

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