Red Racing Horses
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

Political Roundup for December 20, 2012

by: shamlet

Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 07:00:00 AM EST


National:

Polling: A new robopollster, Harper Polling, has come onto the scene, with a goal of being a Republican counterweight to PPP. 

Senate:

MA-Sen: MA Dems are looking to more unorthodox candidates for the special; Connecticut Resident Ted Kennedy Jr. may be interested, and Obama oppo research chief David Simas is considering a bid.

More MA-Sen: A look at Brown alternatives for Republicans; it shouldn't be too surprising for most of our readers. 

IA-Sen: Lost in the barrage of news earlier this week are new indications that Rep. Steve King is actively lining up support for a Senate bid. King is careful to remain non-committal, but few candidates get this open about considering a bid without actually moving forward in a serious fashion.

HI-Sen: Suspense fills the air, as the mystery appointee (hint: it will be a Congresswoman whose last name ends in "busa") to replace the late Sen. Dan Inouye will be named from a list of 3 choices prepared by the HI Democratic Party on Dec. 28, and sworn in on Jan. 3 with the rest of the incoming freshmen class. Hanabusa, for her part, says she's interested.

WV-Sen 2018: See Joe. See Joe forget he campaigned as a stauch gun advocate. See Joe sweat as he realizes no Democrat is invincible in WV anymore. See Joe backpedal furiously.

House:

IL-2: Jonathan Jackson, brother of ex-Rep. Jesse, won't run, meaning that the Jackson family will not have a candidate in this race. They instead seem to be quietly supporting a candidate who will carry on this seat's proud tradition of congressmen engaging in illegal activity, State Sen. Donne Trotter.

HI-1: A Not-so-great Mentioner piece on the race to replace presumptive appointee Colleen Hanabusa. If more than one Democrat enters, Republican Charles Djou probably becomes the favorite. Where the article goes off the rails IMO is to mention 3 Democrats who are not all that likely to run - perennial primary losers Mufi Hannemann and Ed Case, and LG Brian Schatz (who is in line to be Governor in 2018 if Abercrombie wins a second term.) So I'll throw out 3 names of my own - State Sen. Clayton Hee and City Councilman Ron Menor, who both lost the 2006 HI-2 primary, could try again, and State Sen. and former D party chair Brickwood Galuteria could be another potential possibility.

Governor:

RI-Gov: 2010 R nominee John Robtaille announced he will not try again in 2014. His decision leaves three credible Republicans exploring the race: former State Police Superintendent Brendan Doherty, plus mayors Allan Fung of Cranston and Scott Avedisian of Warwick.

NJ-Gov: Could Democrats' savior in this race be... Septugenarian Rep. Bill Pascrell? Pascrell is starting to dip his toe into a bid after what initially seemed like absurd rumors started fluttering around him a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Christie is already conspicuously looking ahead to 2016.

AR-Gov: Speculation from WaPo on whether AG Dustin McDaniel (D) can recover after the recent affair revelations (hint: probably not as long as his opponent isn't Todd Akin.)

More AR-Gov: A very good piece on the questions McDaniel still has to answer. They aren't pretty, and stretch into conflicts of interest and a murder investigation.

NY-Gov: Senate Minority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D-Yonkers) is trying to make nice with Cuomo after the Governor's tacit backing of the Republican-led Senate coalition. Suggests that there really isn't a whole lot of enthusiasm on the left to run into Cuomo's buzzsaw by antagonizing him.

State & Local:

NYC-Mayor: MTA chief Joe Lhota is stepping down tomorrow to start a mayoral bid as a Republican. Lhota is likely to more-or-less clear the primary field thanks to his strong connections with Guiliani.

NY-SD-46: George Amedore's (R-Rotterdam) 37-vote victory was certified yesterday, but it's likely he won't be able to be seated pending court challenges.

WATN: Southhaven, MS Mayor Greg Davis, who lost to Travis Childers in the MS-1 special in 2008, has been indicted on embezzlement charges in connection with purchases at a Canadian sex shop.

shamlet :: Political Roundup for December 20, 2012
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Political Roundup for December 20, 2012 | 105 comments
MA-SEN: Brown would crush Ds
http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

I guess MA voters
Just loved Liz Warren and would gladly send Brown back.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
MA-SEN
Capuano and Markey at least have the excuse of not having total name recognition.

Unless Patrick changes his mind, it looks like Democrats better hope Brown doesn't run, and runs for Governor instead.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
The problem
Brown's in the high 40s/low 50s against everyone. If Democrats come home, Brown's got major problems. Also, Brown's margin of error is tiny, as a blowout for him would be getting up to 53%.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Still
it's pretty amazing to have him leading all tested Democrats at this point by solid margins so soon after losing to Elizabeth Warren. I wouldn't have expected that.  

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think Brown's guaranteed something between 45-53%
Where he's stuck in the mid-40s against Patrick and capable of low-to-mid-50s vs. a Setti Warren or congressman who's been bloodied up in a contentious primary. Honestly, I haven't a clue who will emerge on the Democratic side, although I imagine we'll either see Patrick or Kennedy clear the field or a six-way bloodbath among a bunch of B-grade lawmakers.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
And if Brown got past the special,...
....he'd have a much better chance of winning a full term because the next election would be 2014(when Jawn Kerry's term expires). Unlike this year he'd be safe from a prez-year turnout(i.e., the low-info voters Time Mag lionized this week). BTW, I think Brown's endorsement today of the "assault weapons" ban renewal signals he's running.  

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.
[ Parent ]
Andy Card
He's living in Texas. The idea of a college dean whose moved away from the state suddenly moving back to run for senate is a bit far-fetched.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I remember
Before anyone thought anything of Brown, he was the big possible get in MA-SEN in 2010.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
One of many
I think the order went something like: Romney, Healey, Schilling, Mihos(!), Card, and then we "settled" for Brown. I remember being very depressed about that because I thought Brown was way too conservative to win.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Mihos!?!
Good God. Talk about an implosion.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.
[ Parent ]
I was hoping for Schill
He doesn't appeal to everyone but in 2010 he was very much beloved throughout the state, wasn't a politician and thus had no paper trail, could handle himself with the media, and had an entrepreneur angle. The RI debacle has hurt Schilling's image somewhat and has eliminated him from any future political considerations.
[ Parent ]
Another poll, a little different
http://www.abc12.com/story/203...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Ben Affleck
I'd like to see some polling on a Brown vs Affleck matchup ... it's not that far fetched, imho.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
Must view
State growth rates this past year in states.
http://www.census.gov/newsroom...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Migrating east to west
This has been going in since Europeans first settled North America, and it appears to be.continuing today

Once the.drilling is done, I suspect western North Dakota will have a few modern-day ghost towns. The industry there is bot the type that will be sustained for decades on end.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
less north to south than pass couple decades though
(Other than Texas)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
population growth is heavily slowing
If that is accurate. Florida is going to pass New York soon.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Apportionment Estimate:
This of course will be heavily off by 2020, but:

AL: -1
CA: +1
CO: +1
FL: +1
IL: -1
MI: -1
MN: -1
NY: -1
NC: 1
OH: -1
PA: -1
TX: 3
VA: 1
WV: -1

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
If Puerto Rico is admitted as a state
They'll have to reapportion the House. Would they use the 2010 census or more updated numbers? The Constitution says the census so I guess they'd use old numbers.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Using Oklahoma as a precedent
Congress can admit new states as many repres as they want until the next census comes in (they gave Oklahoma 5, which was exactly the number it deserved)

I think they would also follow the AZ & NM precedent of permantly enlarging the house if PR were admitted as well. (That law in early 1910s that effectively set it to 435 actually stated 433 for now, but when AZ and NM are admitted the number will increase to 435; the admission of those two states was still pending when that law was passed).

Congress though is actually free to increase (or decrease) the size of the house any time they wish. (They are also free to change the method used to assign seats if they find something better.)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
439?
They could give Puerto Rico 4 seats and be done with it. Of course they should enlarge the House.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
That would be 5 seats with new total of 440
As of 2010 census, PR was behind OK and ahead of CT, both of which have 5 seats.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Wrong.
They're going to go with the Alaska/Hawaii precedent and give Puerto Rico one At-Large seat, temporarily increasing the size of the house to 436. They would then reapportion after the 2020 Census.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
You're rather emphatic
Congress could choose their course of action from several options. Since Puerto Rico has yet to become a state, there aren't any bills making a determination. You can't look to 1959 as a precedent since there's only one congressman still left from then.

That was a situation where Hawaii was only being deprived of 1 congressman and only for 3.5 years. Here you'd be depriving Puerto Rico of 3-4 for nearly 10 years. If they admit Puerto Rico they won't stick it to them like that.

There were bills for DC to get a congressman. In the bills, they increased the House size to 437, because they wanted to retain an odd number. They were also set to give the state that just missed out on an additional rep in 2002, Utah, another seat. So they're unlikely to go with an even number now. That'd suggest they'd give Puerto Rico at least 2 seats.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Their proposed increase of 2 had more to do with
getting the support of one Republican state's delegation (Utah) so it wasn't all Democrats.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
Chaffetz
Jason Chaffetz chairs the subcommittee on DC, although his tenure began subsequent to the DC plan first getting floated. If they were trying to bribe him with such a carrot, they were being foolish. Chaffetz ran on "I'm bringing nothing back to Utah" and got celebrated for it. So I doubt the plan was designed to get his support, which it never did.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I expect RI will be down 1 seat by 2020


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
RI will likely lose a seat
considering they actually lost population...

I did the math and it looks very similar to the one above...

Gains:
CA  CO  FL  NC  TX(3) VA

Loses:
IL  MI  MN  OH  PA  RI  WV  and One of NY or AL

18, Republican, KS-03


Capito, Cassidy, Handel, Land, Roberts and Rounds for 2014 Senate!!

[ Parent ]
RI and AL look like they are close
So I guess that if RI goes down 1 Alabama would be a very small 7 rather than a large 6.

Minnesota actually seems to be growing not too far below the national pace. That said, it still drops to 7 despite only having ~150k less people than Wisconsin and Colorado, which barely clear 8 seats.

Elsewhere, Oregon is a large 5 and California is a small 54; that said the larger states seem to get the benefit of the rounding according to the formula. Slightly faster growth in Oregon and they would snag that Alabama seat.


26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Apportionment Calculator
http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/d...

Which states just missed out (additional population needed to edge out the 435th seat recipient):

New York 62,749
Oregon 36,643
Arizona 71,934
West Virginia 22,791
Texas 383,649

Which states just made it (population to lose last seat to the 436th Priority Value State):

Florida 401,664
Texas 478,326
Virginia 141,059
California 255,421
Alabama 15,348

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
ND
not surprised about ND growth but wonder what people moving to state political alliance is?  
[ Parent ]
it doesn't seem to have changed it, much.
Seeing as Romney easily won it this year.  

21, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    
[ Parent ]
Moved hard right
North Dakota went from McCain by 8.6 to Romney by 19.7. That's R+8 to R+12. I'd guess Republicans are moving in.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Energy Industry in Western ND
What did you guys expect?  That people following a Hydrocarbon boom would be Democrats?

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
LOL


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.
[ Parent ]
ND
Is it that ND moved right or did republicans just come home in 2012?  Compare 2004 and 2012.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Coming home?
In 20008 92% of Republicans who voted in ND voted for McCain. There is no 2012 exit poll but the number is likely not much higher. North Dakota went from R+15 to R+12.7 to R+8.1 2000-2008. Going back to 2004 would be unexpected.

I'm sure more Republicans voted in 2012 than in 2008. That's reflected in Romney cutting Obama's two party win from 7.4 to 3.7. In North Dakota, however, Romney improved the margin by 8.8 points.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
ND
The immigrants are building a pipeline. Once that it is done, they leave.  In fact, the state is doing work to ensure that a lot of ghost towns arent left behind.
[ Parent ]
nd
I asked the question about new residents trying to see how berg did in relative terms to 2010.  
[ Parent ]
GA passed MI
FL will pass NY in a month or 2.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I'm still perplexed
By this idea of "a Republican counterweight to PPP." There's not a Republican and a Democratic version of accuracy. Accurate polling is just accurate polling, regardless of who does the write-ups.

Democrat, NC-11
There are subtle biases
like not asking about Levin and Durbin retirement scenarios in MI and IL, for example, even though both have a nonzero chance of standing down.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Agree
Plus more flagrant biases, such as polling the numbers of republican believing Obama is a Muslim etc. This type of nonsense polling, plays on election time anger and despite being not a fair representation helps drive a media narrative.

If the republicans want to match fire with fire, go ahead. Poll democratic voters views on Socialism vs Capitalism for example. If any "interesting results" turn up, release it.

I don't like the politicization of polling but as we've seen, politics is ruthless. This is a zero sum game, we can't afford to fall behind anywhere.

20, Thatcherite,  

[ Parent ]
Still
They are a Democratic aligned pollster.

One could argue the right already has a PPP Counterweight with Ras, Pulse or WAA, but some don't.  WAA had a good chance to be that pollster but they seemed to have disappeared.  Has anyone heard from Gravias post election either?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
There's a lot more to it than an accurate final poll
PPP has a Democratic lean that's more pronounced before they go to their likely voter model. But even if they are more accurate for the two years before that, they still present a Democratic narrative. A Republican narrative, accurate or not, is a balance.

Also, PPP asks a lot of questions beyond horse race. And those questions, with how they're phrased and the order, lead to bias.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It's the marketing strategy
That is what they want to do. Copy PPP's success on the right.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
If they succeed
It will be an interesting test of the idea that PPP biases their early-cycle polls to create a narrative, and then starts conducting accurate polls after Labor Day.

BTW, there's no reason why any firm which doesn't use an obsolete eight years out-of-date electorate model can't replicate PPP's success.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
PPP often helps the narrative for Dems through what they choose to poll.
An event happens that would seem to favor Democrats, and PPP jumps into the field to see if polling data backs up the narrative. They also poll Democratic talking points of the moment to test their effectiveness. A similar outfit on the right could yield substantial dividends.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Please
PPP is a very good pollster but they also have an agenda. They go out of their way to make Republicans look foolish in some of their polls, and immediately jump on and promote any good news for Dems. The GOP could definitely use an equivalent for messaging purposes. Rasmussen played that role for most of the 2010 cycle.
[ Parent ]
Not PPP's role
Rasmussen released bottom line horse race numbers, but didn't ask questions to promote Republicans and make Democrats look bad. Remember the PPP poll that said many Republicans were birthers?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen was very aggressive about finding GOP opportunities
As soon as a Republican expressed interest in a race, they would do a poll overnight and have good results for us the next day. 2010 was going to happen with or without polling, but Ras was an important part of setting the narrative.
[ Parent ]
PPP v. Rasmussen
Yes, Rasmussen produced positive horse race numbers, but PPP's role is to produce a complete narrative beyond elections.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Accuracy matters
They still have to produce accurate polls to be taken seriously over the long run. Otherwise, they're just another fly-by-night one-cycle pollster like Gravis and WAA.

Rasmussen played that role in 2012 as well. The problem was that the message wasn't there.

It's worth noting that these replies are pretty much getting to my point: The 'polls create a self-fulfilling prophecy' sentiment is very high in the GOP. If you believe in it, then of course you want a "GOP PPP" or whatever.

Problem is, from a messaging standpoint, you already had four of them in 2012: Rasmussen, We Ask America, Gravis, and Mason-Dixon. We see how that turned out..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Sure.
And Akin was tied with McCaskill after his gaffe! I'm still amazed PPP actually managed to deliver a Senate seat to us.  
[ Parent ]
Nonsense
You can feed that myth if you'd like, but Akin, or arguably the NRSC, delivered that seat to us.

The reason why I said that Akin would stay in the race from the first instant, before any polls came out, is because it was obvious to me that Akin was a 'true believer' who was going to hang his hat on any rationale for staying in.

More importantly, what doomed Akin wasn't his abortion comment, it was the denunciation and renunciation by the GOP, and most specifically that devastating ad released in the closing days of the election where a host of leading Republicans were saying he wasn't fit to serve in the Senate.

What Doomed Todd Akin's Race? Abortion Comment or GOP Abandonment?

Most political cynics, and that describes most of the political junkie class, have a tough time figuring out true believers, for obvious reasons. I used to be that way myself, but I accepted their existence a long time ago, and, oddly enough, the world has been much more predictable ever since..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Booker running for senate
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Barletta opens new offices
Lou Barletta is opening a Carlisle, Cumberland County office, a Harrisburg, Dauphin County office, and a Sunbury, Northumberland County office. The Carlisle office was Platts' and the Sunbury office was Marino's. I like that he's making his presence visible across the sprawling district.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
Very smart, but he should have probably done this last year.
Carlisle is particularly important, as Cumberland County is the most GOP-heavy part of the district and a very real possibility for a primary challenge.

I thought Dauphin got thrown into PA-04. Did they split it, like they did Cumberland?

I'll have to drop into Barletta's office next time I'm in Carlisle.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Barletta
He couldn't have done this last year... his district didn't include those places last year. I'm talking about district, not campaign, offices.

Barletta picked up a slice of Harrisburg as well as much of rural Dauphin County. Charlie Dent picked up the Hershey area and the area around Three Mile Island. Perry got most of Harrisburg.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

[ Parent ]
Oh, I follow you.
In that case, he's remarkably quick off the mark on establishing district offices, and good for him.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
[ Parent ]
I think
That reps were bad cost services are just plain stupid. It's not like they do most of the work or pay for it. You just need to hire qualified people.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
?
I think that reps were bad cost services are just plain stupid.

This is completely unintelligible. Clarify, please.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Damn autocorrect
I think that reps with bad constituent services.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Cuomo giving cover to Skelos
Cuomo says if Amedore wins, whole IDC arrangement in senate becomes "irrelevant".

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Wow
Cuomo and Skelos must be closer than I thought, considering as Klein is basically trying to be Cuomo's professional sycophant.

It's much better to keep the IDC in the fold in a limited capacity though, to prevent another resource-draining fight in '14.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Cuomo clearly hates the legislative Dems
I don't know where it comes from, but he has no interest in dealing with a Democratic-controlled legislature. And that doesn't matter much now, but on the off-chance he's still governor in 2021 it will help save us a few seats in Congress again.
[ Parent ]
Ed Markey is thinking about Senate
http://www.boston.com/politica...

Yeah, he knows they aren't getting the House back.

26, R, PA-01.



Weird
he could stay in the House another 25 years; I've long pegged him as unambiguously trying to get up to Dean.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
PA EV by CD
It's baaaaaaack...

State Reps. Robert Godshall (R-Montco) and Seth Grove (R-York) want Pennsylvania to divvy ups its electoral college votes by congressional district. It's a plan originally pitched by Sen. Dominic Pileggi in 2011 and would have nullified President Obama's Pa. advantage had it been in effect in 2012.

http://www.politicspa.com/hous...

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

I think this is a case of be careful what you wish for
If this actually passes, it's going to bit us sometime in the next three presidential elections the way PA has been moved from D+ PVI to even PVI.
The good news is the Democrats are largely self packed there so it's only conceding a handful of the votes instead of almost half like proportional would.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
NY-5
Ethics closes case against Meeks. http://www.rollcall.com/news/h...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
AR-Gov
Dems trying to get Ross back into race. http://talkbusiness.net/2012/1...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
At the end of this article
It doesn't sound like he was interested.
http://talkbusiness.net/2012/1...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
OH-6 is now R+8+
This seat is likely gone for Ds. 55.2 Mitt to 42.7% Obama.

OH-13 Ryan went from D+9 to D+12. another good sink.

https://docs.google.com/spread...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Wow, Renacci really underperformed.
Mitt won OH-16 by 8, while Renacci only won by 4. Had the Libertarian Blevins (who got over 6% against Renacci in 2010) stayed in, Sutton likely would have won.

22/Male/Dem./Native of OH-16, Now NC-04(Graduate School).

Favorite Republicans: Lisa Murkowski and Richard Lugar.  
[ Parent ]
Member vs. member effects
He should be ok going fwd.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Really more surprising that Sutton did so well.
She's more liberal than Renacci is conservative. Who were the Romney-Sutton voters I wonder?

22/Male/Dem./Native of OH-16, Now NC-04(Graduate School).

Favorite Republicans: Lisa Murkowski and Richard Lugar.  
[ Parent ]
Perhaps women
Most likely. It's only 2 people out of every 100.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Women and some conservaDems


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
So Dave Joyce is safer than I thought
His district is R+3.5.  
[ Parent ]
Even in 2012
None of our incumbents in McCain, Romney districts lost. ZERO.  

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov: Remember 2013 is a free shot for NJ Dem Congressman
They can run for Governor without having to give up their house seat. So I think an all out effort is made to recruit a Congressman into running.  
It sounds like Pascrell is the guy
Andrews already has egg on his face from a statewide bid, Payne is too new, and Holt is too men. Pallone always seemed like the most likely candidate to me, with Sires after him. But Pascrell has a lot of fire in his belly, and perhaps this was part of a deal that got him some endorsements in the Rothman race?

On second thought, perhaps Rothman himself would be interested if Christie wasn't in such a strong position.

[ Parent ]
NYC Mayor
Sheinkopf joining Bill Thompson's campaign.
http://mycrains.crainsnewyork....

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

MA-SEN: Lynch will run
Lynch
He would probably be the best General candidate, but If anyone runs against him in the primary it will be tough for him to win.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
If its Lynch vs Brow
You could have a similar dynamic to the Weld vs Silber race. A social conservative Dem vs a social moderate Republican. All those pro-choice groups that stumped for Warren will not have to come out & support Brown.
[ Parent ]
KY-SEN: McConnell up 4 in internal, 20 in informed ballot
Wow
Up 4 in an internal?  If Democrats got a competent nominee, this could be bad.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Wait, so
McConnell's team dissed the PPP poll then released the same result from an R poll?  Why in the world leak this?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
CNN says Mark Sanford in for SC-1
FP'ed
This is a BFD.
[ Parent ]
PA10
I calculated PA10 using incomplete county data for two counties.  in one case[monroe] a difference of about 10 votes, for northumberland around 1600

daily kos pres by cd working page for the other counties

                   obama      romney      total
bradford             8624      14410   23425
juniata             2547       6862        9535
;lackawanna pt      16228      14331       30930
lycomning           15203      30658       46493
mifflin              4273      11939       16371
monroe pt           12911       9171       22377
northumberland pt    3558       6531       10316
perry pt             2992       7111       10278
pike                10210      12786   23279
snyder               4687      10073       15002
sullivan             1034       1868    2949
sussuehanna          6935      10800   18044
tioga pt             5081      10650       16016
union                6109       9896       16268
wayne                8396      12896       21607
          108788     169982      282890
                             38.46%      60.01

Fiscal Cliff
This might be off topic, so mods feel free to delete or tell me to stop if needed, but I think tonight is a pretty big deal.  Plan B not being voted on is making Boehner look pretty bad.

Is there any chance Hensarling, Ryan or Cantor run for speaker now?

Does Boehner hold steady or does he make a deal with Obama and the majority of Democrats?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

Boehner
If Boehner makes a deal with Obama and gets mostly Democratic votes he's nearly certain to lose his speakership. You have an odd situation here. Harry Reid will get 51 Democratic votes for whatever the President wants. Yet the same deal is supposed to get 218 House Republicans and 0 House Democrats.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking that
we're going to fall over it (not meet the deadline by the end of the year)

Maybe as a pre-condition for raising the debt ceiling (which needs done in a couple months) we can retroactively extend the expiring tax breaks, but that's about it.


41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
WATN
David Paterson fired from his radio talk show gig at New York's WOR. http://radioinsight.com/blog/h...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Ouch
I kind of liked his show.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Treadwell Gaffe?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
He proposed that Alaskans themselves try to buy their state. I thought it sounded like an employee buyout; Treadwell said he preferred to think of it as a "citizens' buyout." He said, "I don't think we want to leave the country to help save it, but if it comes to that, I'm sure we'd bid."

Umm what? Sounds a bit Lowden-esque to me.

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State

Weird more than anything
It could point to him being an awkward candidate with Romneyesque Problems, but for now it isn't a big deal. (he's a Rich Dude in his first elected office, right?)

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)


Check out my blog at politicohen.com.  Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism.


Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Tongue in cheek
The reporter is mostly joking around and got a humorous Treadwell comment playing along.  Anyone who thinks this is a gaffe has a humor deficit.  
[ Parent ]
absolutely
This is not a gaffe by any stretch.  He didn't propose selling the state.  He said if the FEDS were going to sell Alaska, then the people should buy it before some corporation.  It's the opposite of a gaffe.  
[ Parent ]
You guys know the whole thing is a JOKE
They are kidding around. It wasnt meant to be serious!
[ Parent ]
The Problems with Skimming
https://twitter.com/buzzfeedbe...
@BuzzfeedBen didn't seem to think this was a joke..

19-Cubano, R, CA-38
Turning L.A. County Red


Making CA a Golden State
[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for December 20, 2012 | 105 comments
About
Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

Inside information? Problems logging into your account? Complaints? Compliments? E-Mail us at redracinghorses@yahoo.com
Search




Advanced Search

(C) RedRacingHorses
Powered by: SoapBlox